The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Minnesota Vikings players heading into their matchup with the Chicago Bears to help you craft a winning lineup.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
The idea of J.J. McCarthy is there: he’s an athletic QB with plenty of pedigree and a strong supporting cast.
The practical use of him in fantasy is much trickier.
He has more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes (five) in his four starts, and he’s failed to complete over 56% of his passes in three straight.
This is obviously a good matchup, and we saw McCarthy tear up the Bears in the fourth quarter of Week 1, but we play a 60-minute game, and the former Wolverine hasn’t done nearly enough to earn our trust.
Against the Ravens last week, on 42 pass attempts, McCarthy was fantasy’s QB16: I view that as something of a ceiling for Week 11.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
I believed Aaron Jones would be something of a situational back to Jordan Mason’s lead. That Minnesota would lean on the veteran when behind and the younger, more explosive option in neutral-to-positive situations.
I still think the first part of that statement is accurate, but with Jones handling all 10 first-quarter snaps last week as an underdog against the Ravens, might he just be a reliable source of volume moving forward?
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I’ll wait one more week before locking into that thought, but things are certainly trending in that direction. This is a great spot as a home favorite to test the prior thought: if Jones is featured out of the gates, this team has made their decision, and we treat him as an RB2.
If not, this is another backfield that we can’t trust.
I’m hoping for some clarity and am cautiously ranking it this way: Jones is my RB24.
Jordan Mason, RB
Jordan Mason didn’t play a snap in the first quarter last week against the Ravens, while Aaron Jones was on the field for all 10 offensive plays and got his hands on the ball six times.
We knew Minnesota would lean on Jones’ direction in the passing game, but they told us last week they also want to start the game with the veteran, which makes Mason’s path to production awfully thin.
For him to hit your lineup, you need the Vikings to jump out to an early lead, but ideally not at the hand of Jones (why take Jones off the field if he is producing?). This gets even more difficult when you consider that J.J. McCarthy has struggled with consistency and hasn’t gotten Justin Jefferson as involved as Carson Wentz does.
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That’s a fine needle to thread, and one I’d rather not deal with. I’m OK with holding onto Mason in a ‘next man up’ sort of way for an offense that needs balance, but asking him to provide standalone value alongside Jones is a serious leap of faith into an ultra-specific game script.
Jordan Addison, WR
Jordan Addison posted a 26.8% target share last week against the Ravens and gave us 6.5 PPR points with it.
The involvement was nice from a spreadsheet point of view, but unless you’re seeing something I’m not, starting a secondary receiver in a JJ McCarthy-led offense isn’t a comfortable feeling, never mind the fact that we might not know who the second pass catcher on this roster is after Jalen Nailor posted a 5-124-1 week against the Ravens.
I do think Addison sits behind only Justin Jefferson in terms of target hierarchy on this roster, but his value is more in splash plays than volume, and I have far more questions than answers on that front when it comes to this passing game.
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Since returning from injury, McCarthy is 6-of-19 on passes thrown over 15 yards downfield with a pair of interceptions and zero touchdowns. We don’t have much proof of Addison as a volume target earner, McCarthy as a consistent passer, or this connection as a big-play threat.
I’m going to need at least one of those boxes checked before I get Addison into my top 30 at the position.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Justin Jefferson has been held under 50 receiving yards in three of four J.J. McCarthy starts. While the 29.3% target share against the Ravens is a step in the right direction, that’s a lot like victory lapping a child putting vegetables on his/her plate.
Until they are consumed, the mission is not accomplished.
I suspect we’ll get there sooner rather than later. The Bears have allowed the opposing team’s top receiver to exceed his season average in all five games since their bye, and with their offense clicking, this could turn into an NFC North shootout.
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I’ve dinged Jefferson in the rankings (WR10), but that’s just a slap on the wrist. There’s nothing to do on your end besides ride this out and take comfort in knowing that he forced a 38-yard DPI flag last week.
Things like that don’t show up in the traditional box score, but they let you know that the big game might not be too far off.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
This JJ McCarthy experience isn’t exactly going well for the primary pass catchers.
TJ Hockenson has turned 66 routes this month into five targets and 19 yards. The worst part? They won a road game against the Lions and hung around against the Ravens in those two games, reasonably positive results all things considered.
I don’t think he’s being phased out of this offense, but I do think McCarthy will have to be told to look in this direction, as it’s clearly not in his nature (Hockenson was under 20 yards in each of the first games this season as well).
The matchup is golden, so if you’re the super forgiving type and willing to give him one more week, I can’t really stop you, but I’ve been discouraged enough by the lack of opportunity to drop him down to TE16 in my Week 11 rankings.
