Week 1 of the NFL season brings exciting opportunities and tough decisions for fantasy football managers looking to set their optimal lineups. The Minnesota Vikings present several intriguing options as they face the Chicago Bears in their season opener, with a mix of established veterans and emerging talents to consider. Making the right start-sit decisions early in the season can set the tone for your entire fantasy football campaign.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
J.J. McCarthy was drafted to be the answer. J.J. McCarthy has been hyped as the answer. J.J. McCarthy has looked like the answer in what little we’ve seen of him on the professional stage.
J.J. McCarthy isn’t a fantasy starter to open the season.
Both things can be true, and this doesn’t exclude him from working his way into that conversation with time, but the risk/reward math is all out of whack if you’re considering him in Chicago to open the season.
For the record, the Bears don’t scare me, and that could mean that in just over two months, when these teams meet in Minnesota, I’ll be singing a different tune. They did, however, provide enough resistance a season ago (third-lowest opponent pass TD% and the second-best overall red zone defense) to make betting on an unknown quantity in a week where all 32 teams are in action a bad practice.
THROWBACK: WHEN JJ MCCARHTY MADE AN INSANE CATCH, GOT CRUSHED AND THEN THREW A DIME.
😱😱😱
JJ is a pretty special talent.
pic.twitter.com/uDoMheANhy— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 14, 2024
The Vikes have a favorable start to the season (Bears, Falcons, and Bengals), but you’re going to run into a similar issue for all of those games as this one, and that’s the depth of the position. In Weeks 4-8, Minnesota has three tougher-than-average matchups (Steelers, Browns, and Eagles) with a bye wedged in there.
McCarthy’s stock is one I’m keeping an eye on. Still, I think it’s likely that the industry as a whole gets out over its skis in September without acknowledging that you’re not realistically going this direction in standard-sized leagues until the second half of the season in a best-case scenario.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
If you spent a sixth-round pick on Aaron Jones, you’re clearly more bullish on Minnesota’s veteran back than most. That decision also means you’re counting on him to be a weekly staple in your starting lineup. While that might be a dangerous bet for the entire season, it should be a safe one for Week 1.
While with the Green Bay Packers, Jones dominated the Chicago Bears in their two matchups during the 2024-25 season, piling up at least 20 touches and 18 fantasy points in both games.
In theory, he enters this contest in better physical shape than he was for either of those, given that it’s the first game of the year. He also had 13 red zone touches across those two contests, which brings up a major question for his new team: Can the Minnesota Vikings’ offense replicate last season’s success with a change under center?
Furthermore, is Jones the one who will get those valuable carries for the Vikings this season?Â
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
In their first meeting a season ago, Chicago loaded the box on 40.9% of Jones’s carries, the fifth-highest rate he faced all year. A similar game plan should be expected in McCarthy’s professional debut. Jones’s yards-per-carry average against loaded boxes topped out at 4.6 in 2022 with the Packers, but it fell to 3.9 in 2023 and settled at 3.7 last season. The volume of work, at least to open the season, shouldn’t be an issue.
However, there are efficiency concerns to consider, even in a seemingly favorable matchup like this one, until McCarthy demands the defensive respect that Sam Darnold garnered a season ago.
You can get away with playing Jones this week as you planned at the draft, but it’s wise to track his usage in scoring situations. Don’t hesitate to sell high if he opens the season with a bang.
Jordan Mason, RB
I’m as bullish as anyone you’ll meet on what Mason has the potential to be in this system. His boom-bust rate during his time as a 49er was elite, and his running style looks like that of a lead back.
And even I can’t plug him into starting lineups just yet, knowing that the range of outcomes from a touch perspective is so wide.
If Chicago can help us out on the bearish Jones case and slow the veteran down in Week 1, our long-term play on Mason might bear some early fruit. However, until we have data points that suggest this is at least a full-blown committee, you’re going to have to sit on your Mason shares and just hope it won’t be long.
Fantasy football in September is a marathon.
Adam Thielen, WR
The Vikings elected to bring Adam Thielen home on August 27 after extended talks of a trade with the Panthers, and with Jordan Addison suspended for three games, there could be some short-term value to chase here.
The veteran receiver caught 103 balls in 2023 and was the WR8 from 2017-18 with these Vikings, but I’d be shocked if we got anything close to that value in this, his age-35 season. He’s pretty clearly the fourth pass catcher when this roster is at full strength in an offense with a QB who has yet to make an NFL start and a backfield that features one of the 10 best pass catchers at the running back position.
Does that appeal to you?
It doesn’t to me. I won’t stop you if you want to get cute in a DFS GPP format. A six-catch 50-yard performance is within the reasonable range of outcomes (subscribe to the PFSN Betting Newsletter for an angle on why the non-Justin Jefferson Vikings could show out in Week 1). You’ll see massive profits on your limited investment if he finds the end zone.
You could squint and see the case for this archetype in a spot like that. Other than that, Thielen isn’t the type of player I’m interested in rostering in a season-long format, let alone flexing him in Week 1.
Jordan Addison, WR
Addison is suspended for the first three games this season (at CHI, vs. ATL, and vs. CIN) due to violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He’s still an appealing option to hold, but he is a significant regression candidate (TD on 8.2% of his career targets) and is missing out on a favorable run to open the season.
On the bright side, it’s doubtful that a receiver will step up in his absence in a way that will impact his season-long projection. You’re looking at a player who could be volatile on a weekly basis, but as a featured option in a Kevin O’Connell offense, trusting the process is the play.
Justin Jefferson, WR
I know Aaron Rodgers considers himself a father figure to the Chicago organization. Still, with him no longer in the NFC North, you could certainly argue that his claim of ownership stands to be transferred to Jefferson sooner rather than later.
Minnesota’s WR1 has cleared five targets in six games thus far in his career against the Bears, and the results have been … #good.
- 44 catches
- 620 yards
- 3 touchdowns
- 21.2 FPPG (14.6% over expectations)
We could argue about the hierarchy of the receiver position, but does it matter? You’re playing Jefferson every week in which he is active in any season-long format, and there’s no DFS decision to be made with this being the final game of the week on Monday night.
There’s a broader range of outcomes than we are accustomed to with Jefferson by way of a new quarterback, but that doesn’t mean that there is a discussion to be had regarding his standing as a WR1 in all fantasy formats.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
Last season was anything but fun for managers with T.J. Hockenson. Not only did he miss seven games, but he was largely MIA when on the field, failing to score a single touchdown and recording his lowest on-field target share since his rookie campaign with the Lions.
It happens.
The team experimented with running him downfield more often (his aDOT jumped 21.1% from his 2023 rate), and it didn’t work. But maybe it laid the foundation for what Kevin O’Connell has in store for this JJ McCarthy-led offense?
If so, it won’t take long to see it pay off. On passes thrown 10+ yards downfield, the Bears allowed the second-most yards per attempt, and Hockenson played into those struggles by racking up 12 catches in 166 yards in their two meetings last season.Â
This offense clearly has a significant moving piece, which introduces a low floor until we know otherwise, but Hockenson’s role seems stable. You should be comfortable locking him into your lineup across all formats.
After a month of data points, we will have a better feel for this team as a whole, but I think it’s more likely that Hockenson jumps up a tier from where you drafted him than fails to pay off his price tag.
