Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Week 1 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers (at Jets)

Imagine not being sure if Shohei Ohtani could play both ways or a world in which Cooper Flagg couldn’t drive a car, let alone drive the lane at the highest level of hoops. Remember when Travis Kelce was more known for his commercials than his girlfriend, or when you weren’t sure if a show about an overly optimistic soccer coach would be successful.

That’s where we stood as a society the last time Aaron Rodgers threw for 200 yards or multiple scores in a season opener.

There’s a chance he squeaks past that arbitrary threshold this time, but in this world of video game numbers and versatile options, that won’t get it done in any standard league. The Jets’ defense ranked eighth in yards per pass, seventh in completion percentage, and fourth in touchdown pass rate, all of which are on the board for them to repeat this year.

Additionally, this could be the slowest-paced game of this week (maybe this month?), and the pieces aren’t aligned for the future Hall of Famer to be close to your radar.

Anthony Richardson (vs. Dolphins)

Tools are just tools until they are put in the hands of someone who knows how to use them.

This is true in athletics as much as it is in anything, and the fact of the matter is that, right now, Anthony Richardson’s profile isn’t much different from a penguin holding keys to a Bugatti.

Nice visual, right?

Our penguin has something everyone would love to have, but he can’t do anything with it.
Following the Indianapolis Colts’ decision in mid-August to name Daniel Jones the starting quarterback, Richardson, like the penguin, is now lacking in opportunity on top of everything else.

Colts HC Shane Steichen is not planning for this to be a short-term arrangement for Daniel Jones. “He’s the starting QB for the season,” Steichen told reporters today. “I don’t want to have a short leash on that.” https://t.co/Sl29DWj002

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 19, 2025

This is like our penguin not being allowed to take a driver’s test. Technically, it’s the last box that needs to be checked, but some issues must be addressed before we reach that point.

To make matters even worse, because of the division they play in, this has a low probability of turning into a tanking situation where Richardson’s development is prioritized in a meaningful way for fantasy managers. The best-case scenario feels like the 2024 Falcons, where the team remains in the mix and has its hand essentially forced to make a move. If we start trending in that direction come Halloween, I’ll be openly stanning for a stash.

The Penguins can’t drive. Obviously, but it’s a Bugatti and we’d be talking about perfect conditions (the Colts are scheduled to have both of their Jaguar games in December, in addition to a home date with a 49ers defense that is vulnerable, to say the least).

Baker Mayfield (at Falcons)

It’s blind resume time!

• QB1: 4,428 pass yards, 40 pass TD, 369 rush yards, 4 rush TD, 86.8 QB+
• QB2: 4,500 pass yards, 41 pass TD, 378 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 85.7 QB+

Baker Mayfield has led the NFL with 22 multi-touchdown pass games since the beginning of 2023, a total that includes his six touchdown passes against the Falcons across two games last October. Taking it a step further, you’ll notice those games were just the tip of the iceberg: the Falcons’ defense was on the receiving end of two of the top-10 fantasy quarterback performances in 2024.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I understand the concerns. Liam Coen is gone, and outside of Mike Evans, the receiving corps’s production is likely to be spotty. Dock him a spot or two if you must, but in this situation, that doesn’t knock him out of the tier of players you’ll seriously regret benching if you decide to get cute.

That blind résumé above shows QB1 Aaron Rodgers in the middle of his great career (2016) and QB2 Baker Mayfield in 2024.

Bo Nix (vs. Titans)

Bo Nix’s rookie campaign was far better than expected, which has fueled curiosity about how much he can develop in Year 2.

This is as good a spot as any to get the party started.

Playing behind an elite offensive line, Nix faces a Titans defense that couldn’t make opponents uncomfortable in 2024. Last season, Tennessee ranked 29th in raw pressure rate and was even worse when they tried to plug that deficiency with a blitzer, checking in at 30th in pressure percentage when bringing the heat (33.3%, league average: 40.6%).

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start-Sit Analyzer

Fantasy managers come to Nix for the versatility and stay for the passing. The rushing appears to be a reliable asset (23+ rushing yards in the last five games he’s played), and this matchup amplifies what he does well as a passer.

As a rookie, Nix ranked ninth in touchdown rate when not pressured as opposed to 27th when under duress. With all the time in the world to prepare for a defense that gives opponents all the time in the world to throw, there’s no reason to expect we see anything but a strong performance from Nix in Week 1, landing him as a top-10 signal-caller in all formats.

Brock Purdy (at Seahawks)

Three players have 10+ 300-yard passing games over the past two seasons: Purdy, Jared Goff, and Joe Burrow. That’s not bad company to keep, but can he overcome the offensive changes to return value regularly for fantasy managers?

I’m skeptical. After the Brandon Aiyuk injury last season, there were four games in which Deebo Samuel didn’t either catch a TD pass or a 30+ yard pass, and, as you’d expect, Purdy’s production was all over the map.

• 21/28 for 159 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (QB14)
• 11/18 for 94 yards (QB30)
• 20/25 for 325 yards, 2 TD (QB6)
• 14/31 for 142 yards, 1 INT (QB26)

There was some cherry-picking that went on there, and Christian McCaffrey was fully active for only two of those games. However, the point that we don’t know what to expect remains, and that has me needing Purdy to prove himself a stable option before I assume it.

There’s some athleticism in this profile, which needs to be explored if he is worthy of your trust. When I look at Purdy, I see a lot of 2023 Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence that season was QB13 that season, a year in which he weighed down his TE with targets (114 catches on 143 targets for Evan Engram) and had a RB/WR threesome that, at the time, was thought of more favorably than what Purdy is currently working with (Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley, and Christian Kirk had a cumulative ADP of 143 that season while the Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall trio hovered around 190-195 for the bulk of this past raft season).

Purdy is a part of a voluminous fourth tier at the position that can be shuffled up and dealt differently every week, depending on which way the wind blows. I’m taking the pessimistic side until Aiyuk returns or one of these unestablished WRs shows us the ability to win as a featured option.

Bryce Young (at Jaguars)

By now, you’re well aware that Bryce Young showed signs of growth down the stretch of last season. Those positive vibes were carried over into the first preseason game’s first drive (58 passing yards with a deep completion to Tetairoa McMillan on his first snap and a touchdown to Jalen Coker to finish the masterpiece of a first impression). Now he gets the pleasure of facing a Jags defense that gave up four of the 28 highest scoring QB games a season ago.

We are one game, maybe one half, away from a prominent analyst (fantasy or otherwise) making an outrageous claim in favor of Young.

Be aware of the temperature in the room. I have no issue with rostering Young with hope, but I don’t think there’s a clean path to being a weekly option. Young is more of a cheap DFS play in my books, and with Jacksonville owning the lowest blitz rate in the league in 2024 (Young: 1.6% TD rate on non-blitzed passes as a rookie before posting a 4.2% rate in Year 2), you could squint and get there.

My main concern is the overall ceiling. While this projects to be a close game and the passing attack shows promise, I still see this offense landing around the middle of the pack in pass rate over expectation (PROE). Young averaged just 1.5 total touchdowns per game in 2024, and that’s a tough sell given how low the floor can be.

I’m open to Young taking a leap forward this year, mainly because the franchise wants him to. They need him to. That, however, can happen without being considered a legitimate top-12 QB every week, and that’s where I fall in this profile.

C.J. Stroud (at Rams)

The fantasy season was over, and if you entered the season counting on C.J. Stroud, your season had been over for months. Still, if you remember, Stroud reminded us during the “real” postseason of the talent we saw during his standout rookie campaign.

Against the Chargers and Chiefs, two above-average defenses, including a Los Angeles unit that ranked sixth in our Defense+ grading scale, the former Buckeye averaged 8.6 yards per pass (2024 regular season: 7.0).

What a healthy Nico Collins does for a signal-caller is funny, right?

The Rams’ defense took a step back last season, something that was expected to occur in Year 1 A.D. (After Donald). With their offense upgraded this offseason, this could be a weird shootout spot that catches the public off guard.

I have Stroud ranked as a top-5 pocket passer this week, which puts him on the QB1 radar for me in all formats, a level of optimism that most across the industry seem not to share.

Caleb Williams (vs. Vikings)

While conventional wisdom suggests avoiding quarterbacks against Minnesota’s defense, Caleb Williams presents a contrarian argument for Week 1. Despite the Vikings leading the NFL in blitz rate for consecutive seasons, Williams thrived against the pressure in their previous meetings, completing 15-of-23 passes for 210 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions when Minnesota brought extra rushers last year.

The key lies in Williams’ dual-threat ability. Though he ranked poorly against the blitz overall (24th in YPA and 28th in completion percentage), his rushing upside creates a unique floor that most pocket passers lack. Only Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts recorded more 30+ rushing yard games than Williams in 2024, indicating his legs are a real and spectacular fantasy weapon.

Minnesota’s defensive reputation is somewhat inflated from a fantasy perspective. They allowed just five quarterbacks to reach 17.5 fantasy points last season, but Williams’ mobility changes the equation entirely. When traditional passing windows close due to Minnesota’s aggressive blitzing, Williams can extend plays and create rushing opportunities that bypass their pass defense entirely.

The Vikings’ blitz-heavy approach could backfire against a quarterback who’s already proven he can beat them both through the air and on the ground, making Williams a sneaky QB1 play with tournament upside.

One of my bold calls this summer was that Williams had an absolute path to being the sixth-highest scoring player at the position this season, and a strong showing to open the season would be a nice step in that direction.

Cameron Ward (at Broncos)

Over the past decade, top overall picks in Week 1 of their rookie season have averaged 14.3 fantasy points in a very inefficient manner (5.3 yards per pass) that relies more on volume than anything.

Cameron Ward is an interesting prospect who has the potential to grow with time, but I’m not willing to ask him to put up viable numbers in his professional debut against arguably the best defense in the league, which has had extended time to prepare.

What I’ll be watching most closely in Ward’s first start is how willing he is to push the ball down the field and if he can be a threat with his legs (12 rushing touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons). On the whole, I’m pessimistic about his ability to contribute in redraft leagues in 2025, but I’d love to be wrong.

Dak Prescott (at Eagles)

All reports indicate that the hamstring surgery is in the rearview and that Dak Prescott is as healthy as possible.

The days of rushing production seem to be in the rearview as the veteran enters his age-32 season, which caps his ceiling. However, the passing volume grades out as strong, if not elite, and that should allow for a handful of big performances this season.

Does it come in this spot against the reigning Super Bowl champions?

Probably not. He’s welcoming in a new WR2 (long-term, a great thing, but there’s a learning curve to expect), still operating without a reliable running game, and facing a defense that allowed 10.4% fewer yards per pass than any other unit in the league a year ago.

If you need to talk yourself into it, there’s the fact that Prescott has averaged 18.1 PPG over his last nine when throwing 25+ passes as an underdog of more than three points.

That’s one too many hoops for me to jump through to consider Prescott a real option this week (the Giants and Bears are coming in Weeks 2-3, making for interesting conversations when we get there).

Daniel Jones (vs. Dolphins)

The stuck-in-park object meeting the very moveable force matchup of Week 1 is an interesting math problem, but I’m not sure how much impact it will have on fantasy matchups.

The Colts’ pass game has been downright atrocious over the past two seasons (bottom-10 in passer rating, completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and interception rate), so much so that the addition of Daniel Jones (10 touchdowns against 13 interceptions since the start of 2023) boosted their potential for the upcoming season.

It’s not a pretty outlook, but the Dolphins’ defense isn’t exactly in a position to take over the league either. Javon Holland (free agency) and Jalen Ramsey (trade) have gone, calling into question their high-end talent and depth across the board.

In essence, the Colts will likely be an offense you stream defenses against, and the Dolphins one you stream receivers against.

What happens when they share is anyone’s guess. Given the wide range of outcomes, I’d rather not have a dog in the fight outside the Jonathan Taylor when it comes to the matching up of these two units.

Indy isn’t short on offensive talent, and that has me holding shares of Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren in hopes that some level of stability occurs either in Year 3 of Anthony Richardson or Year 7 of Jones, but I have no intention of being early to the party when it comes to inserting any of them into my lineup.

This feels like a Charlie Brown situation at the QB position: I’ll wait until I have a different holder than Lucy (maybe Jones is that, but we don’t have concrete evidence just yet, so for now, I’m just assuming he is Lucy wearing a mask).

J.J. McCarthy (at Bears)

J.J. McCarthy was drafted to be the answer. J.J. McCarthy has been hyped as the answer. J.J. McCarthy has looked like the answer in what little we’ve seen of him on the professional stage.

J.J. McCarthy isn’t a fantasy starter to open the season.

Both things can be true, and this doesn’t exclude him from working his way into that conversation with time, but the risk/reward math is all out of whack if you’re considering him in Chicago to open the season.

For the record, the Bears don’t scare me, and that could mean that in just over two months, when these teams meet in Minnesota, I’ll be singing a different tune. They did, however, provide enough resistance a season ago (third lowest opponent pass TD% and the second best overall red zone defense) to make betting on an unknown quantity in a week where all 32 teams are in action bad practice.

The Vikes have a favorable start to the season (Bears, Falcons, and Bengals), but you’re going to run into a similar issue for all of those games as this one, and that’s the depth of the position. In Weeks 4-8, Minnesota has three tougher-than-average matchups (Steelers, Browns, and Eagles) with a bye wedged in there.

McCarthy’s stock is one I’m keeping an eye on. Still, I think it’s likely that the industry as a whole gets out over its skis in September without acknowledging that you’re not realistically going this direction in standard-sized leagues until the second half of the season in a best-case scenario.

Jalen Hurts (vs. Cowboys)

What’s understood doesn’t have to be explained.

With the Tush Push still legal, it’s essentially illegal to do anything but plug him in every single week in our game. There’s no reason to think twice about it, for he’s been the same, high-level producer ever since A.J. Brown came to the City of Brotherly Love.

Saquon Barkley or not.

A dinged-up Dallas Goedert or not.

2022-24 Rushing TD Leaders

1) Hurts: 42

2) Derrick Henry: 41

3) Josh Allen: 34

4) Josh Jacobs: 33

5) David Montgomery: 30

If you only want to look at QBs, the leaderboard over that stretch gets even goofier:

1) Hurts: 42

2) Allen: 34

3) Justin Fields: 17

4) Lamar Jackson / Trevor Lawrence: 12

Hurts has thrown multiple TD passes in four of his past five games against the ‘Boys while clearing 25 yards on the ground in all six of his career starts against the divisional rival.
Sometimes, those Thursday night games can/should impact how you evaluate a player for the week, but that’s generally not the case for a player like Hurts and certainly isn’t impacting my decision-making in the first month of the season, when rest is less valuable.

Dallas posted the fourth-worst red zone defense of the decade in 2024 (75% TD rate). Not that you needed a reason to believe that Hurts enters this week (this season) with as high a fantasy floor as anyone in the sport, but now you have even more ammunition.

Jared Goff (at Packers)

Well, we won’t have to wait long to get a litmus test on life without Ben Johnson for Jared Goff and this Lions offense.

The Packers may not boast an elite defense (11th in our Defense+ grading last season), but what they do well makes this an ultra-interesting, potentially informative spot for the new coaching staff in Detroit. In 2024, Green Bay was the best team at creating pressure when they elected to blitz, doing so on 49.5% of their opportunities, a rate that was more than a percentage point higher than any other unit and nearly nine points above the league average.

That would have undone Goff in previous seasons, but he averaged a career-high 6.8 yards per pressured pass a season ago (the eighth-best mark in the NFL and a second straight season of improvement).

Against the Packers specifically, he completed 10 of 17 passes (58.8%, against the rest of the NFL: 52.7%) with a pair of touchdowns when under stress. Now, the million-dollar question: nature or nurture? Was his success a result of development or a scheme?

At this moment, it is impossible to know. We can guess (I lean in, Goff is still a viable option in the post-Johnson era due to the weapons at his disposal), but that’s all it is until we get some data points. I don’t know about you, but I’m not in the business of guessing if I can avoid it, especially not in the first week of the season.

I’m passing on Detroit’s signal-caller in this spot, preferring his opposing number, Johnson’s current pupil, Caleb Williams, and matchup decisions like Trevor Lawrence (vs. CAR).

Jayden Daniels (vs. Giants)

All things considered, I thought the Giants did a pretty good job against Jayden Daniels during his Rookie of the Year 2024. Across two games, they didn’t allow him to get loose for a run that picked up more than 16 yards and surrendered just 435 yards on his 38 completions.

But, c’mon.

There’s no decision to be made here, and with New York having the second-lowest interception rate across the league last season, Daniels was a matchup nightmare league-wide in 2024 and figures to present the same problems this year. In a spot where the opponent struggles to make splash plays, why would we expect anything less than elite production to open 2025?

Joe Burrow (at Browns)

Joe Burrow has picked apart the Browns in the past, and he’s set to have another massive season. Given the roster around him, he has no choice if this team wants to be even remotely competitive.

Last season was far from a banner one for Cleveland, but they did lead the league in pressure rate (41.7%, league average: 33.8%). In theory, that’s a strength that should have you lowering expectations for the opposing passing game, but if you, like me, are buying what you saw from Joe Cool a season ago, you’re not sweating this spot.

Burrow’s pressure splits

• 2023: 84.1 passer rating, 5.8 yards per attempt, 29.5% first-down rate (ranked 13th)
• 2024: 104.0 passer rating, 7.9 yards per attempt, 44.3% first down rate (led the league)

I’m not tempted to go this way in DFS contests. Burrow’s slate-breaking games are most likely to come when the Bengals are playing catch-up and are forced to be overly aggressive and ramp up the tempo.

That’s not going to happen here. I feel good about that.

Burrow could post the top QB+ grade this week, flashing the ability to make quick and precise decisions. That doesn’t mean he’ll be the piece you need to cash in big this week.

Joe Flacco (vs. Bengals)

Is it possible that we romanticize Joe Flacco more than we should?

The story is good, but we aren’t exactly working on the LeBron James/Tom Brady age curve here. Over the past three seasons, Flacco has averaged fewer fantasy points per pass than Justin Fields and Andy Dalton. There’s obviously no rushing upside to chase (he has fewer career rushing yards than Lamar Jackson has averaged per season since 2019), giving him no real path to mattering in anything but deeper Superflex settings.

The Bengals defense allowed plenty of QBs to play over their heads last season, and that’ll likely be the case again this year – that could be true, and it is still possible that Flacco doesn’t sniff the top-15 at the position in Week 1.

Jordan Love (vs. Lions)

I like Jordan Love, but I don’t “like” him. For a player who does most of his damage from the pocket, that’s the difference between challenging for a QB1 spot in my ranks and being more of an afterthought.

The upside case isn’t hard to make. This talented kid has a command of a productive offense and has made the most of a supporting cast that lacks the type of pizzazz he had hoped for. With a roster full of WRs seemingly better fit for a secondary than a lead role, Love leads the sport in games with multiple 25+ yard completions since the start of 2023.

That’s nice, but without an alpha WR or a path to elite volume (54 passes in a shootout against the Vikings in Week 2 last season, no more than 30 attempts in all but three games after that), how does he separate himself from this glob of quarterbacks, half of which is on your waiver wire?

Dak Prescott will consistently be ranked around him, but he plays in a weather-proof stadium and has access to one of the five best receivers in the league. Jared Goff fits the same profile. As does J.J. McCarthy. Trevor Lawrence is a shade below this level, but he, too, has an elite receiver at his disposal, and he gets the benefit of change with Liam Coen coming to town.

I’m not down on Love, I’m down on the idea of Love. He’s not going to run, and without access to a game-breaking pass catcher, he’s never going to elevate to a point in my rankings where I feel obligated to start him. As long as that’s the case, why roster him?

Maybe the drafting of Matthew Golden unlocks something. If that proves to be the case, we adjust. Entering the season, however, Love doesn’t rank among my top-10 signal callers, and he’s closer to the bottom of the list when it comes to “next man up” candidates.

Josh Allen (vs. Ravens)

Josh Allen has run for at least six scores in all seven of his NFL seasons (27 over the past two years), and by averaging 4.7 touchdown tosses per interception in 2024, he seems to have plugged the lone real “hole” in his game.

He’s as good as there is in this league, even without elite talent surrounding him. During his MVP season, Allen recorded the top-2 fantasy QB performances of the year, and it wouldn’t shock me if he did something similar in 2025.

You’re playing him without a thought; that goes without saying. I don’t think we see an Allen explosion to open the season (7.9 yards per completion, zero touchdown passes, and 2.0 yards per carry in the playoff win over these Ravens). Still, you’re wasting zero time on a decision here, even if you project this to be one of Allen’s five worst of the season.

Justin Fields (vs. Steelers)

Less than 12 months ago, the Steelers were an undefeated team, led through three weeks by Justin Fields and his 73.3% completion percentage. Now he’s on the other sideline, staring at his replacement, a man getting his driver’s license when Fields was born, in the eyes. Life comes at you fast, but the athletic Jet should have a chance to spread his wings for fantasy owners this season.

He opened the preseason with a TD drive against the Packers and finished with a scramble for six, which is the exact path he has to follow for us to sell ourselves.

But maybe not in this matchup. Jalen Ramsey joined this roster during the offseason and should allow them to continue ramping up the aggression, something we saw them do as last season wore on (27th in blitz rate through eight weeks, eighth through the final 10).

Fields is just off my radar for this week, but I don’t expect that to last long, given that he was put on this planet to provide us with his skill set.

Justin Herbert (vs. Chiefs)

Did you know that 14 quarterbacks have had a multi-TD pass game against the Chiefs more recently than Justin Herbert, a signal-caller who draws them at least twice a year?

That’s more of random trivia than anything actionable, but, interestingly, the divisional rival has had his number in terms of limiting fantasy upside. Last season, he totaled just 392 yards through the air and two scores in eight quarters against the reigning AFC champs, and while I think a better season in terms of counting numbers is ahead, expecting Herbert to open the season on fire isn’t something I’m doing.

There were just 63 points scored across those games, and if that game environment occurs again, asking Herbert to be a top-12 QB this week is difficult.

Some support in the running game would go a long way – the Bolts turned 48 carries into 149 yards against the Chiefs last year and didn’t have a single carry pick up more than 12 yards. Five weeks ago, I was bullish on this year being different in that regard, but with Rashawn Slater’s season ending before it started, we are stuck in a holding pattern.

Let’s take the cautious approach. See what this offense looks like in a tough spot, and then consider deploying Herbert next week in Vegas on Monday night. For me, he feels toward the top of the matchup-based QB, and that’s not an awful place to be with just one opponent in Weeks 2-7 that really will give me pause.

Kyler Murray (at Saints)

Update: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Sunday morning that Kyler Murray was a surprise addition to the injury report with an illness. However, he will play today against the Saints.

Cardinals are adding QB Kyler Murray to the injury report this morning due to an illness, but he’ll have no game-status designation and he will start vs. the Saints. pic.twitter.com/fCbnQt0i6R

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 7, 2025

Murray is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he will play.

Down the stretch of last season, we saw a bit of what makes Kyler Murray an intoxicating option annually.

• Week 15 vs. Patriots: Completed 23-of-30 passes
• Week 16 at Panthers: 12.3 points as a runner
• Week 17 at Rams: 52 scoring opportunities (pass + rush attempts)
• Week 18 vs. 49ers: Four touchdown passes

Every puzzle piece is on the board: can he complete the beautiful design? It’s certainly possible, and on a fast track against an awful defense with maybe the best young pass-catching duo in the league, we could see signs of an elite profile come together as soon as Week 1.

The range of outcomes is there, and that can be a worry, but Murray is my sleeper QB to lead the position in scoring through the first month of the season (opponents: Saints, Panthers, 49ers, and Seahawks).

Would that make him a sell high? Would that make him a league-winner who proves impossible to defend?

We can cross that bridge when/if we get to it (Falcons/Bengals in Weeks 16-17 has me taking the more optimistic side regarding long-term projecting). Still, you’re playing him without a thought in Week 1, and he’s a high-priority DFS play on a main slate that doesn’t have Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, or Josh Allen on it to open the season.

Lamar Jackson (at Bills)

MVP awards aren’t won or lost in the first week of the season, but the Lamar Jackson fans/bettors certainly have this game circled as one that could have meaning far beyond who opens 2025 with a 1-0 record.

These two powerhouses faced each other twice last season, and the volume stats were … well, they weren’t great for Baltimore’s cornerstone. In those contests, he totaled just 31 completions and 12 rush attempts, but he had multiple passing scores and a 15+ yard run in both games.

And that’s the case for Jackson to be QB1, right?

Who will finish as fantasy QB1 in 2025? 🥇

Our team of analysts makes their predictions 🔮 pic.twitter.com/CktVOfy7lK

— PFSN (@PFSN365) August 9, 2025

You drafted him to carry your team weekly, and while this may not be a break-the-slate performance, I don’t think there’s a proper way to slow him for four quarters.

Matthew Stafford (vs. Texans)

We can have all the “arm talent” discussions you want, but I’m not banking on a hampered Matthew Stafford (back) at this point in his career if I can help it.

That’s not to say there won’t be good weeks. There absolutely will be. The cast around him is potent, and the defensive regression could force some games into shootout atmospheres where we see the vintage version.

That’ll be fun when it happens, but I don’t think it comes in this spot, and I highly doubt I have any exposure to that eruption whenever it occurs.

Stafford waited until Week 8 last season before posting his first 15+ point game, missed most of this offseason, and is facing the fourth-best yards-per-play defense from a year ago. Pocket passers in today’s world face an uphill battle to return much in the way of fantasy production, and I’ll let Stafford beat me this season.

If he does, I’ll tip my hat. But I’m not sweating it this week.

Michael Penix Jr. (vs. Buccaneers)

The early bye (Week 5) rules out any of you in standard leagues having Michael Penix Jr. shares, and I think that’s right.

Even if he were to build on the limited sample we caught at the end of last season, with plus-matchups presenting themselves through September, how much would he have to do for you to burn a roster spot on a QB2 through the bye week?

Situations like this, however, are where those destined for fantasy greatness thrive. You’re invested in the game, not just those on your roster.

The Bucs had the fourth-lowest interception rate a season ago, and these two tangled in a pair of shootouts when sharing a field (123 total points scored). Kirk Cousins wasn’t productive enough over the course of the season to keep his job through the winter, but he did pass for 785 yards and eight touchdowns against the Buccaneers.

Is it fair to expect that from Penix? Of course not, but a back-and-forth game in a scoring environment is undoubtedly within the realm of possibilities. Sharp fantasy managers are watching the second-year signal-caller, understanding that their devotion to the craft doesn’t stand to bear much fruit in the short term, but could make for an interesting roster add as we get into the middle of October and beyond.

Patrick Mahomes (at Chargers)

I think it’s pretty clear at this point: Patrick Mahomes means far more to the Kansas City Chiefs than he does his loyal fantasy managers. The raw talent is intoxicating, but he doesn’t need to put up video game numbers for this team to be successful.

Volume is never an issue. Mahomes has thrown 35+ passes 21 times over the past two regular seasons, a figure in a different stratosphere than most (Joe Burrow, 18, is the only other player with more than 13 over that stretch). The number of opportunities wasn’t a problem in this matchup last season, but considering that his 66 attempts netted just 455 yards and two scores against the ascending divisional rival is undoubtedly a concern.

If you want to ride past trends, there is room for efficient upside. The narrative around Andy Reid and the Chiefs is that they thrive off a bye, and what is Week 1 other than a game after the longest bye they’ll get all season?

Mahomes has completed over 71% of his passes in five of his past six Week 1 contests and has tossed at least three touchdowns in five of his seven career Week 1s.

I picked the Chargers to win the AFC West this season, making this potentially the most impactful game of the week, which could fuel some additional Mahomes production. That said, I think Los Angeles wants to play a low-possession brand of football, thus relegating Mahomes to my third tier at the position this week and a fringe starter in most leagues.

In practice, you’re playing him. He’s better than anyone on your wire, and the odds are good that you didn’t draft a second viable option. This could be a nice statistical bounce-back season for maybe the greatest of all time. I’m just not sure we see that manifest itself this week (or, for that matter, next week against the Eagles).

Russell Wilson (at Commanders)

17.5 points.

That’s not a high threshold. We are looking at roughly 240 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and no turnovers through the air alone. A good day, but nothing special, and that’s what it took to flirt with QB1 status a season ago.

In 2024, despite the superpowers of Malik Nabers and positive game scripts, how many times do you think a Giants QB reached that total with his arm alone?

Twice. It happened twice, and once was an out-of-body experience from Drew Lock.

Russell Wilson throws a deep ball that is as feathery as anyone in the sport. Even with his best days behind him, he led the NFL in deep passer rating a season ago (Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert rounded out the top 5, not bad company). This could be a spike spot for him in his Giant debut, given that Washington allowed deep touchdowns at the third-highest rate (10.5% of attempts) a season ago.

It could happen. But is the juice worth the squeeze? With no teams on a bye, the opportunity cost of looking in this direction is as great as it’ll be at any point this season, and I’m not sold that this matchup runs out as cleanly as you might think.

Washington was above league average in yards allowed per deep pass and ranked in the top 10 in both yards per deep completion and time of possession. Wilson might hit a big play, but with rushing no longer a major part of his game (just two outings over 16 yards in 2024), a history of limited multi-TD passing efforts, and the sense that New York is eager to turn to Jaxson Dart, one optimistic stat from last year isn’t enough to make him playable in this matchup.

Sam Darnold (vs. 49ers)

It’s a one-season sample under Mike McDonald, but Seattle’s highest one-score rush rate of last year came in the Week 1 win over the Broncos. I’m not assuming that we can copy/paste that into 2025, but in an offense with a new quarterback in a game that sportsbooks are labeling as a coin flip, would it surprise you at all if this were a run-first script?

I don’t trust San Francisco’s defense to put up much resistance this week (or this season, for that matter), making a conservative offensive plan all the more likely for the home team.

We didn’t see Darnold throw more than 31 passes in a game until November last season, and that was during a breakout in an aggressive system. There is volume and efficiency risk in this profile until we see differently, and that has me looking elsewhere this weekend.

That’s not to say Darnold can’t have success in 2025, I’m just going to need data points suggesting that his strong 2024 wasn’t the result of an idyllic situation.

Shedeur Sanders (vs. Bengals)

It’s unlikely that Shedeur Sanders matters in standard redraft leagues this season, but his name is certainly going to generate interest, and thus, you might be interested in adding him to the back end of your roster.

I’m not.

His debut was solid (August 8 against the Panthers: 138 yards and a pair of touchdown passes), but are we ready to pounce on a player because he hit Kaden Davis twice on scoring plays against a bottom-feeding defense that was playing backups?

Context is king, and while it was a good showing, I’m in no way labeling it as predictive. The oblique injury suffered in mid-August obviously isn’t ideal, but from a broader perspective, how does he accumulate enough counting stats to make him valuable to us, even if the role was locked in?

“Functional mobility” is how his athleticism was described during the scouting process, and that’s more of a tool for the Browns than for us. To me, I read that as “there might be a week or two or value on the ground, but don’t count on it.”

That means he will have to be exceptionally efficient, which will be an uphill battle.

The limitations on the supporting cast are one thing, a big thing, but so is a learning curve. It happens for everyone, and a timing-based quarterback is no exception. Drew Brees is the most accurate QB of all time (67.7% completion), but he completed just 59.4% of his passes through three seasons.

It’s possible, if not likely, that Sanders shouldn’t have fallen as far as he did in the NFL Draft and that he doesn’t matter to us as a rookie.

Spencer Rattler (vs. Cardinals)

Derek Carr ended his career on a 12-game run of throwing for under 270 yards, and I think Saints fans would do just about anything to have him under center to start 2025.

Spencer Rattler was a fifth-round pick in 2024 and went winless as a rookie with more interceptions than touchdowns. He’s still seeking his first professional multi-touchdown game, and while we aren’t sure that Tyler Shough will be better, we have a decent idea of what Rattler is (isn’t) when it comes to fantasy.

The situation in New Orleans is ugly at best. If you can secure a discount on Alvin Kamara or Chris Olave, you may be able to extract value from this situation. There’s a world where you plug-and-play Rashid Shaheed on a big week. But you’re not going near this QB situation, including in a Superflex setting (I still prefer Shough to Rattler in that format for the year if you’re truly dumpster diving).

It’s rare, but I’d be on board with the idea of banking on a WR4 type over this quarterback position in leagues like that.

Hopefully, the lost season of 2025 bears fruit in the future; it’s going to be a slog.

Trevor Lawrence (vs. Panthers)

The Trevor Lawrence hype picked up so much steam this preseason that ahead of a podcast appearance, I was asked for a “hot take, but please, make it something, anything, that doesn’t include Lawrence.”

I like Lawrence, but that kind of momentum at cost is a lot to live up to. On paper, this is a great spot, which may make him interesting in DFS circles. Given the optimism surrounding him, I can’t imagine the ownership projection getting to a point where I’m making that decision.

Carolina was the only defense with a sub-28% pressure rate a season ago (25.1%) in a league with an average of 33.8%. That’s a significant flaw and one that could allow Lawrence to do big things, given that his non-pressured average depth of throw jumped by two full yards last year when compared to 2023 (up 27.8%) in Year 1 with Brian Thomas Jr., and now he has Travis Hunter to threaten defenses uniquely.

I understand the optimism for this week and the season as a whole. He’s still not a top-12 QB for me in Week 1, and speaking holistically, I think I’ll be more interested in him when the projected game script tilts in favor of the passing game.

Tua Tagovailoa (at Colts)

The Colts don’t scare me on the defensive side of the ball, and a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, in theory, does. The knock on this Miami offense has nothing to do with the talent on their roster and everything to do with who is available for kickoff.

So, yes, I am intrigued by the idea of rolling out as many Dolphins as possible now, while they are still available. In a DFS setting, I don’t mind the move. This game is on a fast track and could be a sneaky shootout, but counting on that in a season-long setting, with no teams on a bye, is a step too far for me.

The quick-strike Miami attack can look unstoppable at times, though it tends to thrive more against aggressive defenses.

Tagovailoa’s career splits

• vs. blitz: 109.9 passer rating (5th) with an 8.2% TD rate (5th)
• otherwise: 94.5 passer rating (16th) with a 4% TD rate (21st)

Be it a lack of talent, personnel, or any other narrative you want to build, the Colts have shown no intention of bringing the heat. Since parting ways with Chuck Pagano after the 2017 season, Indy has ranked 26th or lower in blitz rate for every subsequent season.

Could we get an efficient version of Tagovailoa? It’s possible, if not likely, but that doesn’t mean he pays off significantly. From Weeks 8-10 last season, he completed a league-high 77.7% of his passes and made every right read.

From Weeks 8-10 last season, he was QB18 in total points, scoring fewer than Trevor Lawrence despite playing one more game.

Tyler Shough (vs. Cardinals)

Outside of celebrating his 26th birthday later this month, not having a professional snap under his belt, no fundamental duality, and just three touchdown passes over the final four games of his extended collegiate career (117 attempts), why is everyone so down on Tyler Shough, the 40th overall pick in the NFL Draft this past April?

Sure, there will be garbage time moments for a team that is expected to flirt with the worst record in the league, but to get to that point in the game, things need to go sideways early on.

Spencer Rattler averaged 5.8 yards per pass and had more picks than TDs in his rookie season. The Saints think he has a better chance to give this team a chance to win right now, and they will open the season with him starting.

Yikes.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Running Backs: Aaron Jones Sr. (at Bears)

If you spent a sixth-round pick on Aaron Jones, you’re clearly more bullish on Minnesota’s veteran back than most. That decision also means you’re counting on him to be a weekly staple in your starting lineup. While that might be a dangerous bet for the entire season, it should be a safe one for Week 1.

While with the Green Bay Packers, Jones dominated the Chicago Bears in their two matchups during the 2024-25 season, piling up at least 20 touches and 18 fantasy points in both games.

In theory, he enters this contest in better physical shape than he was for either of those, given that it’s the first game of the year. He also had 13 red zone touches across those two contests, which brings up a major question for his new team: Can the Minnesota Vikings’ offense replicate last season’s success with a change under center?

Furthermore, is Jones the one who will get those valuable carries for the Vikings this season?

In their first meeting a season ago, Chicago loaded the box on 40.9% of Jones’s carries, the fifth-highest rate he faced all year. A similar game plan should be expected in J.J. McCarthy’s professional debut. Jones’s yards-per-carry average against loaded boxes topped out at 4.6 in 2022 with the Packers, but it fell to 3.9 in 2023 and settled at 3.7 last season.

The volume of work, at least to open the season, shouldn’t be an issue. However, there are efficiency concerns to consider, even in a seemingly favorable matchup like this one, until McCarthy demands the defensive respect that Sam Darnold garnered a season ago.

You can get away with playing Jones this week as you planned at the draft, but it’s wise to track his usage in scoring situations. Don’t hesitate to sell high if he opens the season with a bang.

Alvin Kamara (vs. Cardinals)

Fantasy football is a weekly game. While I was down on Alvin Kamara during the drafting process this summer and remain skeptical about his performance over the next four months, I’m playing him without a second thought in Week 1. I am even leaning toward using him in my primary DFS lineup.

The Arizona Cardinals are coming off their best defensive season of the past three years, a 2024 campaign that saw them rank 27th. Yes, the 27th is their best showing in recent memory. This is a plus-matchup until proven otherwise, and it doesn’t matter who is taking snaps under center.

My season-long fade of Kamara stems from a lack of faith in this offense’s weekly consistency, concerns about his availability as the touches pile up, and a general lack of efficiency. I stand by all those points, but none may be a factor in the season opener.

The matchup is as soft as you could ask for, as the Cardinals opened their draft with five straight defensive investments. Those picks could pay off with time, but will likely need some seasoning before any of that upside is realized. Plus, there hasn’t been a better bet for early-season volume than AK41.

Since 2019, in Weeks 1-6, Kamara has averaged:

• 21.3 touches per game
• Over 15 touches in 89.7% of games
• Over 15 expected PPR points in 82.8% of games
• 20 or more touches in 65.5% of games

For the 2025 season, this discussion will be heavily impacted by quarterback Tyler Shough, Father Time, and maybe even Kendre Miller, who is the clear-cut handcuff after New Orleans trimmed its running back depth chart. For Week 1, however, I expect none of that to matter. Kamara should, at the very least, get enough volume to produce viable numbers across all formats.

Ashton Jeanty (at Patriots)

Giddy up!

If you spent a high draft pick on the pride of Boise State, now is the time to see if you have hit the lottery. It is reasonable to think that, entering the 2025-26 season, the only people who want Ashton Jeanty to handle more work than fantasy managers are the Las Vegas Raiders coaching staff.

This would help them justify using the sixth overall pick on him. Against the fifth-worst goal-to-go defense from the 2024-25 season, all of that volume should result in a fantasy bonanza on Sunday.

What Makes Jeanty a High-Upside Fantasy Play?

While it is fair to label Jeanty as a unique prospect with rare upside, the historical data paints a picture of a high-floor, high-ceiling profile. If you isolate the running backs who walked into high-usage roles in their NFL debut since 2000, the results are compelling.
From 2000 to 2024, rookie running back fantasy production in their first game, broken down by usage, looks like this:

• 25+ touches: 17.8 points per game (over 19.5 fantasy points in half of those instances)
• 20-24 touches: 16.7 points per game (this includes Kareem Hunt’s 45.6-point outburst in 2017)
• 15-19 touches: 11.2 points per game

In nearly a quarter of those games (23.2%), a player getting at least 15 touches in his professional debut has cleared 20 PPR points. That is an impressive rate, especially when you consider that names like Keith Ford, Deji Karim, and Nick Goings met the touch threshold for inclusion.

Asking Jeanty to clear 20 touches and average more than a point per touch is far from unreasonable before the Raiders take their act to prime time next week in a divisional home game on Monday night.

Austin Ekeler (vs. Giants)

I respect what Austin Ekeler has done for his career and what he has brought to the fantasy industry as a content contributor. However, his status with the Washington Commanders is less certain than it was previously. With Brian Robinson Jr. being shipped out of town in late August, there is a reasonable production floor here.

Can Ekeler Still Be a Reliable Fantasy Flex?

That doesn’t mean you should play him in Week 1 with the entire NFL available. But could he be flexed in Week 10 in a potential shootout against the Detroit Lions while you navigate a week that has Chase Brown, Isiah Pacheco, and Tony Pollard on bye?

I think so. For Ekeler, the floor is elevated, but the ceiling is low. In my opinion, you are just as likely to have a week-winning performance as you are to have a performance that sinks your matchup. While neither is going to happen often, there is a spot on a roster for a “safe” 9 to 11 PPR points.

Bhayshul Tuten (vs. Panthers)

Let’s be honest: Jacksonville’s backfield was underwhelming last season, and there isn’t a lot of optimism for the Carolina Panthers’ defense to suddenly improve. While Bhayshul Tuten deserves to be rostered in all fantasy formats, his immediate role is unclear.

With both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. touching the ball over 170 times in the 2024-25 season, it’s hard to project Tuten for more than eight to 10 touches in Week 1. That kind of volume isn’t worth the risk.

However, the rookie from Virginia Tech has potential. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season in college and ran for 10 or more scores in each of his final three collegiate seasons. There is something here, and he should get a chance to prove his value over time.

The best approach is to roster and hold him. There’s no reason to force Tuten into your lineup, especially with bye weeks still a month away. It’s possible that selecting Tuten in your draft will help you win a championship in January, but that doesn’t mean he should be on your fantasy radar for Week 1.

Bijan Robinson (vs. Buccaneers)

If a non-quarterback is going to win the MVP award this season, my pick is Bijan Robinson. That prediction could look even better if he dominates the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as he did in their matchups last year.

Across two games against Tampa Bay in 2024, Robinson touched the ball 35 times and produced 23.7% more yardage than expected, gaining positive yards on 92% of his carries. Yes, that will definitely work.

Additionally, the Atlanta Falcons invested draft capital in defense, which is a great first step. However, the offense’s ability to stay on the field will likely be its best method for limiting opponents’ scoring chances.

Robinson has recorded 25 games with 75 or more scrimmage yards over the past two seasons, two more than any other player in the league. I fully expect him to add to that total on Sunday, along with a trip or two to the end zone.

You’ll probably never find negative words written about Robinson in this space. So, if you’re a big fan of positive reinforcement for your fantasy picks, I’ll always be here!

Breece Hall (vs. Steelers)

How often has a running back received 20 or more touches in a game started by Justin Fields? Across 44 such games, it has happened 15 times. While many want to lower expectations for Breece Hall’s volume, history suggests that he will get enough opportunities to approach RB1 status if he is productive.

However, that is a larger conversation for the entire season. For this specific game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, his numbers will likely be in the low-end RB2 range. The Steelers have ranked as a top-12 defense for two consecutive seasons, and their offense is expected to control the clock, limiting the total number of possessions. Hall averaged just over 13 carries per game in 2024-25, a reasonable expectation for this matchup.

His involvement in the passing game could boost his final ranking this week, but relying on that is a risk in an offense with a newly defined structure. For those playing the long game, Hall is a potential buy-low candidate after his Week 6 game against the Denver Broncos in London.

Brian Robinson Jr. (at Seahawks)

After rumors swirled throughout the preseason, the situation regarding Brian Robinson Jr. came to a head on August 22 when he was traded to the San Francisco 49ers for a sixth-round pick. This was a good price for a team seeking running back depth.

Robinson, who averaged 4.3 yards per carry with eight touchdowns last season, saw his draft value drop significantly over the past three years, despite maintaining league-average production, earning a 72-77 grade in our metric each season.

This week, Robinson should be 100% rostered in all fantasy leagues but also 100% benched. The 49ers’ offense relies on a single bellcow running back, and as long as Christian McCaffrey is active, he is that player. Robinson’s contingent value is high, similar to Jordan Mason’s last season: he would be a top-20 lock if he ever entered a week as the starter on San Francisco’s depth chart.

There is no reason to worry about McCaffrey’s role. While Robinson is a powerful back who can handle short-yardage and goal-line work, the 49ers are unlikely to take their best player off the field during the most important plays unless McCaffrey gives them a reason to do so.

Bucky Irving (at Falcons)

The Bucky Irving experience was phenomenal in the 2024-25 season, and his rising ADP shows that the fantasy industry is fully bought in. They are right to be. He closed last season with 17+ touches in six of his final seven games and a 25-yard play in five of them. As a result, the departure of offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who is now in Jacksonville, is not ideal.

However, great coaches work to the strengths of their best players. The year Irving and Coen spent together proved that he is a unique talent who caught the eye of a high-end talent evaluator. The coaching change brings some role risk, but his ability is undeniable.

Against the Atlanta Falcons last season, Irving gained five or more yards on eight of his 18 carries and caught all nine of his targets. Both of those games happened before Halloween, before his role expanded.

The Falcons did not have an answer for him then, and not enough has changed to move Irving out of the RB1 tier for Week 1 rankings. This game projects to be one of the highest-scoring matchups in the first week of the season, and Irving’s managers should expect to be in on the fun.

Cam Skattebo (at Commanders)

At Arizona State, Cam Skattebo proved he could do it all, finishing his career with 293 carries for 1,711 yards and 21 touchdowns, along with 45 catches for 605 yards and three scores. While Tyrone Tracy Jr. played well as a rookie for the New York Giants with 1,123 yards from scrimmage, this profile is a competition that could swing in either direction.

I expect Tracy to hold the edge in snaps and touches through September as a reward for his rookie performance, but the Giants spent more draft capital on the former Sun Devil. Skattebo’s style of play has the potential to earn him work quickly.

It is difficult to feel good about flexing him against the Washington Commanders without knowing what his touch count will look like. However, for a team that could easily go winless through September, I would be shocked if we do not see Skattebo’s usage ramp up in short order. Many fantasy managers are reactionary, and this is a spot where you can take advantage of that. The rookie will not change, barring an injury during the season opener.

If this is the Tracy show out of the gates, you could be looking at a cheap buying window that could pay off in the long term, perhaps just in time for a fantasy Super Bowl matchup in Las Vegas as New York plays out a likely lost season.

Chase Brown (at Browns)

Just a year ago, the fantasy community was debating whether Chase Brown or Zack Moss was the right investment in the Cincinnati Bengals’ backfield. Now, Brown is widely seen as a fantasy star, while Moss’s health struggles led to his release by the franchise in late July. Life comes at you fast, which is why being nimble is so important for any fantasy manager.

Brown is a great player and has earned the label of a set-it-and-forget-it option in all formats. That said, for DFS players, it is worth noting that the Cleveland Browns have posed a challenge for him. Two of his four worst games during the 2024 season, in terms of production relative to touch expectations, came against Cleveland. He had a 72.7% carry gain rate in those contests compared to his 87.2% mark against the rest of the league.

This history doesn’t mean he can’t produce top-20 numbers at the position this week, as he is certainly capable of doing so. After all, Brown was one of only four running backs last season with 200 carries, 50 catches, and 10 touchdowns. The rising tide of this Bengals offense can rarely float all boats, but I would temper expectations slightly, and that’s reflected in my Week 1 PPR rankings.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (vs. Giants)

Update: Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a healthy scratch today and will not play.

For fantasy managers, we have seen this story play out before. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a name familiar to those in deeper leagues, and more casual managers have likely heard of him following the recent Brian Robinson Jr. trade. He was a sixth-round pick in 2023 after a five-year career at Kentucky, where he recorded 29.6 rush attempts for every one reception.

Rodriguez has yet to be an impactful piece of the Washington Commanders’ offense. Only 9% of his career touches have come in the first quarter, an indication that he is not a featured part of the game plan. However, in his two games with 10 or more carries in 2024, he gained 146 yards and scored a touchdown.

This is where the frustration begins. Rodriguez is a name that will likely come up in fantasy conversations, but probably not in a positive way. The industry has hyped rookie Jacory Crosky-Merritt, and veteran Austin Ekeler is going to do what he always does.

This means when Rodriguez inevitably has an efficient game or gets a goal-line touch, you’ll be yelling at your TV. He represents backfield depth that is more meaningful to the Commanders than to your fantasy team.

So, what is his realistic touch ceiling? He is, at best, in a committee situation as part of an offense with a mobile quarterback, and he offers limited versatility while a rookie plays ahead of him. I think we are looking at six to nine annoying touches a week. These touches may take points off the board for the other Commanders on your roster, but won’t be consistent enough to justify rostering him..

Christian McCaffrey (at Seahawks)

Update: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Christian McCaffrey will play today.

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, who was added to the injury report Thursday with a calf issue, will play today vs. the Seahawks. “He’s good to go,” said one source. pic.twitter.com/K58t9DFlhq

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 7, 2025

You did it. If you’re reading this, you took the plunge on Christian McCaffrey this summer, and for that, I commend you. It’s a move made by managers who enjoy winning more than they fear losing, and that’s generally how I like to approach this game.

You’ve done the hard part. Now, you just sit back and watch. And hope. And maybe pray, if that’s your thing.

McCaffrey, famous for never leaving the field when he’s at the peak of his powers, has been a fantasy monster for as long as we’ve known him. Consider this: in games where he has played at least 80% of the offensive snaps, a relatively low bar for him to clear, he has averaged 25.8 PPR points per game.

That’s a 55-game sample of production that is almost impossible to grasp. His output in those games surpasses the 2024 season’s RB1, Saquon Barkley, by more points per game than the margin that separated Barkley from RB5 Alvin Kamara. In fact, that 25.8 number is more than a pair of top-24 running backs from last season, D’Andre Swift and Tony Pollard, combined.

As far as we know, the CMC plan is in full effect for the San Francisco 49ers. The team profiles as less potent than in years past, and with that, McCaffrey isn’t likely to come off the field. You already know that. You’re looking for a quirky stat to highlight his greatness, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.

So, here it is: McCaffrey has averaged 25.9 PPR points over his last 10 games against bird-themed teams.

Chuba Hubbard (at Jaguars)

Chuba Hubbard is one of only three running backs with at least 235 carries and 35 catches in each of the past two seasons. He plays for a Carolina Panthers team that struggled last season but now seems to be recovering from rock bottom. Their young quarterback has shown signs of promise, and they have added a pass catcher who they hope can change how defenses approach them.

From a profile standpoint, Hubbard checks the boxes you would want him to. He just is not always the most exciting player to watch.

During those two seasons, just 9.6% of his carries have gained 10 or more yards, ranking him 30th out of 44 qualified running backs, sandwiched between Tank Bigsby and Tyler Allgeier. The number of SportsCenter Top 10 plays may be low, but the volume has been enough to create a path to production, and he’s done well for the fantasy managers who have invested in him.

I’m expecting more of the same in 2025, with room for growth. Among those 44 running backs mentioned above, Hubbard ranks 12th in the percentage of rushing yards that have come after contact at 73.7%, a metric that suggests he’s a hard runner.

It goes without saying that this is a good skill to have, and if rookie Tetairoa McMillan can provide the offensive gravity that is hoped for, Hubbard could build on his breakout 2024 season rather than regress.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had the second-worst yards-per-play defense a season ago. Considering that Hubbard can’t play against the Panthers, this is as good a matchup as he’s going to get. I define “fun” as outscoring my opponent, and in that vein, I do think Hubbard stands to be a fun play this week, even if it’s possible that no single highlight stands out.

D’Andre Swift (vs. Vikings)

If the fantasy community is bullish on the Chicago Bears offense under Ben Johnson, then it stands to reason that D’Andre Swift, the team’s unquestioned lead back with a versatile profile, should be viewed more favorably than his modest summer ADP reflected.

The skepticism is understandable. Swift has never reached 1,100 rushing yards and has not scored more than six rushing touchdowns since his rookie season. His ceiling has clear limitations, especially if you believe Roschon Johnson will handle goal-line work and are intrigued by Caleb Williams’ rushing upside.

That said, there is value in a secure role to open the season, and there is no reason to expect anything less than top-20 usage for Swift in Week 1. During his two meetings with Minnesota last year, he touched the ball 36 times, so settling into a 16-20 touch range feels like a safe projection for the 2025 opener.

While the Minnesota Vikings are known for their aggressive style, they surprisingly ranked just 19th in yards allowed per carry before contact to opposing running backs. Their chaotic approach can create big losses, but it also leaves them vulnerable. If a back can break through the first wave of defenders, chunk plays become not just possible, but likely.

For instance, Swift had a 30-yard catch in their first matchup in 2024, his second-longest reception of the season. The touchdown count is likely to remain low, but any back with route-running skills who projects for more than 15 carries is a comfortable start.

David Montgomery (at Packers)

There’s a very good chance that David Montgomery’s late fifth-round ADP will not match his end-of-season value. The problem, however, is that it’s impossible to know if he will be a steal or a bust.

Over the past two years, only 13 running backs have averaged more PPR points per game than Montgomery, and only seven of them have played more games than the Detroit Lions veteran. He relies on touchdowns in a way that makes most fantasy managers uncomfortable, but in this high-powered offense, he has been a fantasy printing press since changing NFC North teams, with 25 rushing touchdowns in 28 regular-season games.

For whatever reason, the Lions have leaned heavily on Montgomery against the Green Bay Packers. In four games against Green Bay, he has out-touched Jahmyr Gibbs 27-8 in the red area. If that usage continues, Montgomery will again return a massive profit on his ADP.

However, the window for that dominance might be closing. In the 2023-24 season, Montgomery averaged 3.6 red zone touches per game, well ahead of the explosive Gibbs at 2.7. In 2024-25, that gap shrunk meaningfully, with Montgomery’s average falling to 3.7 while Gibbs’ rose to 3.4. That is still a significant number and encouraging at face value, but with the rate slipping, the writing could be on the wall for a more boom-or-bust season as Gibbs continues to explore his elite potential.

These concerns are significant enough to consider selling Montgomery shares, but not yet enough to forecast a complete decline. The Packers ranked 20th in red zone defense a season ago, and his role is not vanishing.

I’m fine with plugging him into lineups for Week 1 while chasing a touchdown. But this situation needs to be monitored very closely. If the team’s offensive creativity left town with Ben Johnson this offseason, Montgomery is the player I expect to see the most dramatic dip in value.

To get ahead of it: if Montgomery gets only 11 touches in this game but scores twice, I will sell him to the highest bidder and feel good about it.

Derrick Henry (at Bills)

In last season’s playoff game, Buffalo controlled the clock, holding the ball for nearly three and a half more minutes than Baltimore. The Bills played with a lead for most of the game, and the longest run they allowed was a 22-yarder to Justice Hill. If there was ever a script for Derrick Henry to have a disappointing fantasy performance, that was it. Instead, he ran for 84 yards and scored a touchdown.

Henry’s profile seems to scream “fade” because of his perceived skill limitations and usage patterns, but nothing he has actually put on paper suggests we should expect anything less than another monstrous season. Maybe Father Time will finally collect his due this year. It certainly could happen, but it also could have happened 24 months ago. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Looking ahead to this matchup, the Baltimore Ravens will want to keep Josh Allen off the field. They have a machine in Henry whose skill set might be better suited than any defensive game plan to stop the reigning MVP. You’re playing Henry and feeling great about it every week until a data point gives us a reason for pause. And even then, you’re probably playing him again.

De’Von Achane (at Colts)

De’Von Achane can sometimes be perceived as a complicated player. He is ultra-explosive but can be inconsistent, and is part of a Jekyll and Hyde offense. When you boil it down, however, it’s quite simple: he’s a fantasy star that you should play as long as the Miami offense is whole.

I don’t really care about the matchup, and I’m not sweating how Tyreek Hill thinks the backfield should function inside the 10-yard line. Through two seasons, Achane is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 3.8 catches per game. He is in a scoring position the second he touches the ball. In an offense designed to attack horizontally, there is a clear path for him to be the highest-scoring player in fantasy without much squinting.

As for this specific matchup against the Colts, I have no concerns. You have the green light to deploy Achane however you’d like across a variety of formats. Sure, the Colts had the sixth-best rush success defense in the league against opposing backs, but they also allowed the third-highest completion percentage on short passes, which are throws under 10 air yards.

That’s the kind of versatility that made Christian McCaffrey and Brian Westbrook great in the past. You might be able to take away one strength if you’re lucky, but completely shutting him down is unlikely when this offense is at full capacity.

I like the price you paid for Achane this summer. He has every chance to start 2025 with a bang, offering a glimpse of what is possible if his surrounding environment stays consistent.

Isaac Guerendo (at Seahawks)

Last December, Isaac Guerendo appeared to be on the rise. In each of his four games that month, he either caught four passes or scored a rushing touchdown, prompting the San Francisco 49ers to label him as the RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey. That designation, however, was short-lived.

After a few months and a shoulder injury, the team added Brian Robinson Jr. to the depth chart. This move has pushed Guerendo off my list of draftable assets for this season. When evaluating players, I’d rather be late to a breakout than too early on a player whose situation has soured.

While Guerendo looked the part when given opportunities last season, his role now seems uncertain. At best, he is assured of nothing more than a committee situation if the currently healthy McCaffrey were to get hurt. Consider a hypothetical scenario: if you told me that McCaffrey was going to miss Week 6, what would the snap and touch distribution look like for this backfield?

I would favor Robinson, as in my eyes, the tie goes to the most recent investment. Even if you disagree, is splitting the 18.5 touches that Guerendo averaged in two extended-role games during the 2024 season really that enticing?

When drafting backup running backs, I care less about raw talent and more about raw volume should their number get called. I think Guerendo could well be more talented than a player like Trey Benson or DJ Giddens, but if his ceiling is only a dozen touches, I’m looking elsewhere to fill out my roster.

Isiah Pacheco (at Chargers)

Generally, I avoid forcing the issue with running backs playing against the Los Angeles Chargers, but I think you can get away with it in this case.

On one hand, Los Angeles is coming off a season in which they had the league’s best red zone defense, allowing a touchdown on only 45% of trips. They were one of just four units with a rate under 50%, a significant margin below the NFL average of 57.6%. I believe that strength will be present again this season.

Despite that potential downside, the Kansas City Chiefs opened last season with Isiah Pacheco clearly identified as their bellcow running back. I am okay with blindly trusting that role in an offense led by Patrick Mahomes.

To be clear, Pacheco isn’t the must-play this week that I expect him to become as this season wears on. However, there’s definite flex value to chase here. He has an all-encompassing role on a potent offense to open the season, which is too good to ignore.

J.K. Dobbins (vs. Titans)

It’s easy to remember how the 2024-25 season started for J.K. Dobbins. Playing for the Los Angeles Chargers, he exploded against the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, racking up 266 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just 27 carries. However, his performance didn’t stay at that level. While he didn’t regress quite as dramatically as the New Orleans Saints did after their two-week scoring binge to open 2024, it was close.

For the rest of the season, Dobbins cleared 80 rushing yards only two more times, missed four games, and saw his explosive plays disappear, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry the rest of the way.

Now, Dobbins joins a running back-friendly system. Based on preseason usage, he appears slotted in as the third-down back, but that role alone isn’t enough to generate significant fantasy interest. Perhaps he can build on his career average of fewer than two catches per game, but expecting double-digit opportunities right away is a step too far.

For now, it’s best to roster him as a depth option until there’s physical proof that the Denver Broncos aren’t doing the exact same thing.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. Giants)

What an overwhelming month it has been for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. In roughly thirty days, the rookie went from a seventh-round pick to a fantasy football phenomenon. You’ll often hear him called “Bill,” a nickname he got as a child when his family thought his bald head resembled the cartoon character “Little Bill.”

His strong training camp performance first turned the heads of beat reporters, then his preseason performance caught the eye of fans. Finally, the trade of Brian Robinson Jr. on Aug. 22 confirmed that the internal buzz was real.

But let’s be clear: Croskey-Merritt was a seventh-round pick for a reason. He had an unusual college career, taking snaps for three different programs over the course of six years. His first four seasons were at Alabama State, where he failed to average even 4.0 yards per carry in any campaign. After transferring, he showed enough promise to get drafted on the final night and has continued to impress since. So, what now?

A player with only one 140-touch season on his resume is now considered the potential lead back for an NFL team aiming for the playoffs. To say things are moving fast for him and for fantasy managers would be an understatement, which will likely lead to uneven production. On the bright side, this is a long season.

If you drafted him, and his rising ADP is a great reminder to draft as late as possible, the best move now is to wait. Veteran Austin Ekeler sits atop the depth chart, but he has said he left Los Angeles because he didn’t want a bellcow workload, and it’s safe to assume that stance hasn’t changed with age.

This situation means Croskey-Merritt will get every chance to succeed and prove that the flashes we saw this summer were the start of something special, not just an outlier. I’m cautiously optimistic. First-year production from a player with Croskey-Merritt’s profile isn’t common, but succeeding in a high-powered offense next to an elite quarterback is certainly possible.

The best approach is to wait and see. The fantasy projection looks a lot different with 14 touches compared to 20, so why force the issue and start him in Week 1 over a player you drafted higher who has a more defined role?

The Washington Commanders head to Lambeau Field to kick off Week 2 on Thursday Night, and I’m remaining cautious regardless of how Week 1 unfolds. If he gets a heavy workload, there’s a legitimate concern about his recovery on a short week.

If he doesn’t get much work, his role will be in question. But after that quick turnaround, Washington gets extended rest before facing Las Vegas and then traveling to Atlanta. If Croskey-Merritt truly fills the role Robinson left behind, I’ll likely have him as an RB2 for Week 3.

Jahmyr Gibbs (at Packers)

Jahmyr Gibbs had a legitimate case for being the top overall pick in fantasy drafts this summer, and there is no reason to believe he will be anything less than elite this season. The expectation is that even more of the workload will be shifted onto his plate.

What is the worst-case scenario? That he simply produces the same video game numbers despite an increase in touches?

After all, 1,929 yards and 20 touchdowns can hardly be considered a bad thing.

He found the end zone in both games against the Green Bay Packers in 2023-24, but none of his 33 touches in those contests gained more than 20 yards. That almost feels like a win for the defense. Green Bay’s unit also held him to just 41 receiving yards across those two games on his seven receptions. Could he be slightly inefficient, by his own incredibly lofty standards, in the season opener?

I don’t think the Packers have the blueprint to stop him, because I don’t believe one exists. However, in terms of him breaking the slate in Week 1, those past successes for a divisional rival are noteworthy. For the main slate, I’ll take the other Tier 1 running backs in DFS contests, but that’s splitting the thinnest of hairs.

Jaleel McLaughlin (vs. Titans)

I still believe there is something to Jaleel McLaughlin’s potential.

Over the past two seasons, he ranks third out of 65 running backs with at least 150 carries in the percentage of attempts that gain five or more yards. His rate of 42.3% is even ahead of Bijan Robinson’s 40.5% mark, a statistic that I don’t think happens by accident.

He is part of a creative Sean Payton offense that lacks known stability in the backfield. McLaughlin does not deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups this week, and I am not sure you even need to roster him to be ahead of the curve.

I am just asking you to keep an eye on him. Watch how this backfield rotation works out. Monitor the health of J.K. Dobbins. McLaughlin doesn’t need your full attention right now, but there are a handful of deep fliers that occupy that back part of my brain, and he is one of them.

James Conner (at Saints)

James Conner enters his age-30 season carrying more than 1,600 career touches. While he’s clearly approaching a meeting with Father Time, the signs haven’t surfaced yet. That makes him a comfortable fantasy starter this week, particularly in a matchup where his Arizona Cardinals are favored against the Saints’ eighth-worst goal-to-go defense from 2024.

The veteran running back has exceeded expectations in five of the past six seasons, largely because he’s cleared 35 red zone touches in three of the past four campaigns. He’s staying healthy and earning valuable work near the end zone, leaving little room for complaint from fantasy managers.

Since 2023, Conner has joined an exclusive company as one of only four running backs with 10 or more games of 100 rushing yards. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Kyren Williams complete that group. While he probably won’t emerge as a league winner this season, Conner has earned the label of weekly stabilizer until proven otherwise.

James Cook (vs. Ravens)

The financial issues from this offseason cost James Cook valuable practice reps. When he inevitably regresses from his league-leading rushing touchdown total, some will point to that disruption as the primary reason.

Basic math suggests Cook faces long odds to repeat the scoring success he experienced in 2024. That reality doesn’t create a difficult decision for fantasy managers this week, though. Even facing Baltimore’s fifth-best goal-to-go defense from last season (64.3% touchdown rate compared to the NFL average of 74%), Cook’s versatility and importance to Buffalo’s consistent offense make him an automatic start across all formats.

The Bills’ offensive system continues to feature Cook prominently, and his dual-threat ability gives him multiple paths to fantasy production. The Ravens present a tougher red zone challenge than most opponents, but Cook’s role in the offense transcends touchdown dependency. His involvement in the passing game and ability to break longer runs provide the floor that makes him trustworthy regardless of matchup concerns.

Javonte Williams (at Eagles)

Javonte Williams sits atop the Dallas depth chart right now and, in theory, that should be exciting. In the past, that role alone carried “fantasy starter” designation with it, but we aren’t there right now, and that might not change any time soon.

The numbers tell a troubling story about Williams’ recent performance:

2024: Worst Qualified RBs in Production vs Expectation

• Alexander Mattison: -13.5% (was pegged as a 2025 backup pre-injury)
• Williams: -17.5%
• Kareem Hunt: -18.6% (a backup to start last season and this one)
• Travis Etienne: -20.9% (lost his job and might not regain it)
• Nick Chubb: -21.6% (didn’t find a home until June 9 as a backup for Houston)

The matchup makes things even tougher. Philadelphia was the best yards per play defense last season and has held opponents under 4.0 yards per carry in consecutive seasons. The Eagles’ defensive front remains one of the most formidable units Williams will face all season.

The path to Williams hitting your lineup this week would be a touchdown, but the odds work against him there, too. He’s found paydirt just 11 times on 606 career carries, and Dallas’ implied team total is hovering around 20 points. That’s an awfully thin bet to make for fantasy relevance.

Williams did set new career highs in catches (52), targets (70), and receiving yards (346) in Denver last season. He’s, in theory, in his physical prime, and there are some tools there. However, in a committee situation without Sean Payton, I’m uncomfortable recommending Williams in a game where Dallas’ total play count could be limited.

Jaydon Blue (at Eagles)

At various points this summer, we heard about “borderline lazy” and “doing the right things.” Reports of stealing the show, mixed with concerns about physical ailments, created the typical preseason noise around a rookie.

You have to love the preseason, don’t you?

The truth likely rests in the middle of all the chatter, and that middle ground isn’t going to help us in the short term. For now, he’s a fifth-round pick in a pass-heavy offense that is somewhat buried on the depth chart.

Could that change? Of course it could. In theory, every week is an opportunity for a Dallas back to gain control of this situation and project as a viable flex play. But I’m not risking anything this week on an unknown situation, and if pressed in an NFC East-only format, my money wouldn’t be on Blue this week.

Historical data suggest caution when using rookie running backs in Week 1. Only twice has a Round 5 (or later) pick reached 12.5 PPR points in Week 1 of his rookie season since 2017. Phillip Lindsay with the Broncos in 2018 and Elijah Mitchell in 2021 managed the feat, but those remain rare exceptions.

I like the idea of rostering Blue in most formats, but he’s firmly in the “prove to me you can produce at this level AND that the team is willing to give you work” tier of speculative backs for the time being. The upside exists, but the path to immediate fantasy relevance remains unclear against a tough Philadelphia defense.

Jaylen Warren (at Jets)

If you blinked, you missed it. There was a window of excitement this offseason that Jaylen Warren would finally be unleashed in his fourth NFL season. For better or worse, we thought we might actually see what a featured version of this fluid athlete could look like.

That dream was fun while it lasted, but seemed dead before it ever impacted a fantasy boxscore. Warren averages under 10 touches per game for his career. Maybe we squeak past that number in Week 1 with an aging quarterback and a rookie bellcow back who hasn’t faced real pro-level competition yet, but there’s a bigger question: Is there enough role upside when facing the third-best per-play defense from 2024-25 to justify flexing him?

For me, the answer is a resounding no. He’s the same Warren we’ve grown accustomed to watching from the sidelines. A viable bailout option when you’re desperate or a low-end RB2 if someone ahead of him gets hurt. That means he gets to watch the Week 1 action from my bench.

Joe Mixon (at Rams)

Joe Mixon battled an ankle injury throughout the summer, and his track record doesn’t inspire confidence. The veteran back has missed three games in two of the past three seasons, not to mention that he’s carrying north of 2,100 NFL touches on his body. That makes him challenging to trust in any capacity for the short term.

The situation worsened on Aug. 25 when Houston announced that their starting back had been transferred to the Reserve/Non-Football Injury List. That ruling eliminates him from consideration for at least the first four games of the 2024-25 season.

The 29-year-old presents additional concerns beyond just health. Mixon has averaged more than 4.1 yards per catch just once in his career, making him more of a volume-based fantasy asset than someone who can impact your lineup with limited work. However, his consistency tells a different story. With over 1,200 scrimmage yards in four straight seasons, Mixon stands to be a weekly option once healthy, but you’re playing the long game.

The schedule adds another wrinkle to consider. Houston goes on bye in Week 6 and faces some difficult matchups sprinkled throughout their schedule over the first two months. But if we get a bellcow version of Mixon as winter approaches, he could become a popular name on rosters playing for fantasy glory. Those Week 15-16 home games against the Cardinals and Raiders look particularly appealing for championship runs.

Jonathan Taylor (vs. Dolphins)

The Dolphins quietly possessed the fourth-best red zone defense in 2024, but this unit is vulnerable facing an offense with a singular focus.

The Colts brought in Daniel Jones this offseason and, at least in my opinion, that was more a red flag for the incumbent Anthony Richardson than a vote of confidence for the former Giant. Whoever you think is the better option for this offense long-term, the plan until that becomes obvious is to ride Jonathan Taylor and simply hope the wheels don’t fall off.

I suspect there will be a point in the proceedings where we question how much Taylor can handle. He’s missed at least three games in three straight seasons and averaged 22.9 touches per game a season ago. Those concerns are plenty valid. I’m a glass-half-full type who sees a later bye week (Week 11) with matchups against San Francisco and Jacksonville during the fantasy postseason, but we can address that debate as the time nears.

For now, there’s zero reason to worry. Taylor is on the short list of backs that you can expect 20 touches from this week, and that’ll continue to be the case as long as we project Indianapolis to stay competitive.

Jordan Mason (at Bears)

I’m as bullish as anyone you’ll meet on what Mason has the potential to be in this system. His boom-bust rate during his time as a 49er was elite, and his running style looks like that of a lead back.

And even I can’t plug him into starting lineups just yet, knowing that the range of outcomes from a touch perspective is so wide.

If Chicago can help us out on the bearish Aaron Jones case and slow the veteran down in Week 1, our long-term play on Mason might bear some early fruit. However, until we have data points that suggest this is at least a full-blown committee, you’ll have to sit on your Mason shares and just hope it won’t be long.

Fantasy football in September is a marathon.

Josh Jacobs (vs. Lions)

Personally, I think the Lions are a better football team than the Packers. The sportsbooks, however, view the difference between these NFC North rivals as far less, and if you’re inclined with a multi-billion dollar industry over a scrawny researcher typing up these notes in his basement, Jacobs is a real threat to post top-5 numbers in Week 1.

The Packers brought in Josh Jacobs last season, produced the third-highest rush rate over expectation mark in the league, and had success. If this is a close game, every over ticket on Jacobs is likely to cash, and after a stellar 2024 campaign, it’s fair to assume that the Green Bay rushing attack doesn’t lack a knack for the stylings of their lead back.

In two games against the Lions a season ago, Jacobs produced 43% over touch expectations, averaging 7.3 yards per carry in the Week 9 showdown, highlighted by a 37-yard burst, and finding paydirt three times in Week 14. Green Bay was competitive in those games, having lost just four of the eight quarters, and if that’s the case again, you’re banking on a touch floor hovering around 18.

Detroit isn’t a target. If the offense takes a step back, we could see fewer plays in Lions games, and fewer plays broadly mean fewer points. I’m not actively looking to pick on this defense with Aidan Hutchinson back (they were the fourth-best goal-to-go defense last season in spite of him missing 12 games), but my concerns for Jacobs in the opener are close to zero.

Kaleb Johnson (at Jets)

I like Kaleb Johnson to be the most productive back in Pittsburgh this season, and I’m not sure it’ll be close. That, however, doesn’t mean you should feel obligated to play him against a New York Jets defense that was the third-best on a yards-per-play basis in 2024.

The odds are good, based on ADP, that you have two, maybe three, running backs that you spent more capital on than Johnson. Stick with those guys. The time might come when Johnson is locked into your flex spot, which could come sooner than later.

For now, give me the rookies in this class with more role stability and more projectable offensive play volume. TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey could settle in the same tier as Johnson when this season is in the books, but for Week 1, I have both a cut above him.

Kareem Hunt (at Chargers)

Kareem Hunt cleared 900 yards from scrimmage in 2024 and had 18 touches in a playoff win over the Buffalo Bills. If you strictly operate on what you saw most recently, penciling in Hunt to lead this backfield in touches makes sense. However, that’s a long shot, and Isiah Pacheco is theoretically fully healthy.

This time last year, we all had confidence that Pacheco would not only be the lead dog in Kansas City but also a staple in fantasy lineups. His early-season injury changed everything, but it is worth noting that Andy Reid was fully committed to him: in Weeks 1-2, Pacheco accounted for 78.8% of running back touches.

I’m not giving him that share until I see it and see him hold up, but I do think it’s a reasonably safe bet that Pacheco is the RB1 and that this isn’t viewed as a committee situation. I don’t mind holding onto a veteran like Hunt, who has a grasp of this system, especially with the starting back coming off a fractured fibula, but expecting anything more than handcuff value is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.

Kenneth Walker III (vs. 49ers)

You’re allowed to ask plenty of questions when it comes to the profile of Kenneth Walker III. Can he hold up for a full season after missing multiple games in all three of his NFL seasons? Why has he lost over 8% in terms of yards per carry in consecutive seasons? Will Zach Charbonnet assume a greater role in a Sam Darnold-led offense than he did in years past?

Those are all fair concerns that impact the former second-round pick’s long-term outlook. What I’m not worried about is Week 1.

A fresh Walker is a problem, and this San Francisco 49ers defense is a liability in a major way. The 49ers gave up 29 or more points in five of seven games to close the 2024 season and finished as the second-worst red zone defense in the league, so I can’t imagine I need to convince you this defense is not anywhere close to the image that comes to mind when you first think of this franchise.

Walker has scored 18 PPR points in each of his past four September games. That may seem like a random stat, and at some level, it is, but I do think there’s something to it.

When is he ever going to be healthier? There were two games in 2024 in which Walker had a run gain of more than 20 yards, and they both came in September. There were three games in which he ran for a score and earned at least three targets, and all three came in his first four contests of the year.

Selling high on Walker could well be a discussion we are having in the next month or so. For now, enjoy a healthy version of him. An explosion version. A version that will make you think anything is possible and that you might have a league-winner on your hands.

Kyren Williams (vs. Texans)

Actions speak louder than words, but not all actions are created equal.

A year ago, fantasy managers were concerned about Blake Corum’s potential impact on Kyren Williams’ production after the Rams selected him with the 83rd overall pick. While the thought process made sense at the time, it did not age well, as Williams finished with 51 more carries than Corum had yards from scrimmage.

Fast forward to this past April, and head coach Sean McVay was at it again, drafting Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round. In theory, this could have raised similar questions about Williams’ workload. However, any speculation was put to bed in early August when Los Angeles signed Williams to a new three-year deal, solidifying his position.

While there may be long-term questions about Williams’ value this season at his current average draft position, none of them stem from his role. He is woven into the fabric of this offense, a fact that will not change, especially with Matthew Stafford at less than full strength. The Week 1 matchup against the Texans, who had the second-worst goal-to-go defense in 2023-24 with an 85.7% touchdown rate allowed, certainly doesn’t diminish his projection.

How this offense will function in the red zone once Stafford is fully healthy and Davante Adams is comfortable is something worth watching. That, however, is a problem for another day.

Miles Sanders (at Eagles)

It is difficult to project the number of touches Miles Sanders will get in this game. To start the season, this backfield looks like a small pie that will be split into several small pieces, which is not ideal for fantasy production.

However, that lack of clarity is precisely why a player like Sanders can be rostered. His usage remains unknown in what is expected to be an above-average offense. At just 28 years old, the former second-round pick is a situation worthy of your attention in September.

While this stance could completely reverse in a month, it’s a wait-and-see situation for now. Expectations are low, and he is not close to being in the flex discussion this week. That assessment is both fair and correct. Good fantasy managers, however, are at least open-minded when it comes to this backfield.

Najee Harris (vs. Chiefs)

Najee Harris suffered an eye injury in a Fourth of July fireworks incident that cost him the majority of training camp. The door was already open for Omarion Hampton to assume the bell-cow role in this offense after the Bolts invested the 22nd overall pick on him this spring, and the injury has only widened that opportunity. It is fully expected that Hampton will take advantage of the situation.

Consider the splits from the 2023-24 season:

• Harris: 1.3 PPR points per target, 80.9% rush gain percentage, 32.2% five-plus yard rush rate
• Ezekiel Elliott: 1.4 PPR points per target, 80.6% rush gain percentage, 31% five-plus yard rush rate

At this point, we know what Harris is: an ordinary, standard, and average running back. He could be a thorn in the side of Hampton’s development, but it would be surprising if Harris is viewed as a legitimate flex option as long as the rookie remains healthy. Harris is worth a roster spot to open the season, if for no other reason than the Chargers elected to bring him in during his age-27 season. Still, placing high expectations on him isn’t a wise strategy.

Nick Chubb (at Rams)

With Joe Mixon’s ankle injury sidelining him through September at the very least, Nick Chubb becomes a roster-worthy player for now. While it would be great to see Chubb succeed this season, it is wise to view him as more of a bandage than a long-term solution for your backfield. He has missed 24 games over the past two seasons, averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt in 2024 with the Browns, and is coming off a broken foot he suffered in December.

That said, he projects for about 15 touches this week, which can be useful if you waited to address the running back position with a Zero-RB build. In that case, this is exactly the profile you want access to as you wait for your late-round dart throws to work their way into more routine roles.

Chubb being healthy when Mixon is not gives him a chance to earn more trust. Until he proves otherwise, however, consider him a flight risk. These early-season touches, while valuable, may not generate enough work as the season progresses to warrant his rostering in standard-sized leagues.

Ollie Gordon II (at Colts)

The Dolphins selected Ollie Gordon in the sixth draft round in April, viewing him as a speculative player who could develop with time. That development has been accelerated, which is precisely why teams draft for depth.

Jaylen Wright will be inactive to open the season with a leg injury, and the undersized Achane is working through a calf issue. You would be overthinking things by flexing Gordon this week, but there is no excuse for him to be on as many waiver wires as he currently is.

Gordon scored 36 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Oklahoma State and saw 13.2% of his touches come through the passing game in 2024. Miami’s offense has been built around horizontal movement, motion, and speed, making Gordon an exciting prospect if he can get on the field regularly.

There is no telling what Gordon’s long-term role will be, but he is getting an opportunity to show his value in a live game, something very few players with his draft capital get to do in September.

We will learn a great deal about this team’s opinion of his upside in the opener. You should add him now while he costs nothing instead of risking a premium price when the Week 2 waivers run.

Omarion Hampton (vs. Chiefs)

It has been an interesting ride for Omarion Hampton’s supporters. After being drafted 22nd overall, there was cautious optimism. He impressed at North Carolina with over 1,700 yards of offense in consecutive seasons, but he was entering a system that seemed built for Najee Harris, a player the Chargers signed a month before the draft.

Then, on July 4, Harris suffered an eye injury, and Hampton’s value went up. That was followed by August 7, when Rashawn Slater’s season ended with a torn patellar tendon, and Hampton’s value dropped.

Los Angeles showed its hand by spending significant draft capital on him, and it would appear that Hampton is one of the five running backs most likely to clear 250 rushing attempts this season. His profile includes versatility, making him a rare rookie who comes with a “safe” label attached to his profile.

The Slater injury is a bummer and will require some reshuffling on the offensive line, but it happened with a month to prepare, which is important. There is talent on this line, and with time to adjust, it is possible that the Harris injury, while less severe, impacts Hampton’s 2025 outlook more than the loss of Slater.

Only time will tell how efficient the rookie can be, but there should be no hesitation in assuming a Tier 1 role from a high-pedigree player, an equation that should land him in lineups across the board.

Quinshon Judkins (vs. Bengals)

The fact that all charges against Quinshon Judkins were dropped this summer provides clarity that was not initially apparent. However, his early-season outlook remains cloudy at best, given the amount of missed practice time and the projected general ineptitude of the Cleveland Browns’ offense.

This situation could turn into an imperfect storm, with Judkins only brought up to speed by the time a quarterback change occurs. While optimism for a strong start to the season is low, there is a clear path to volume on a team that will likely prefer to run the ball, so this situation warrants our attention.

That interest is rooted in his past performance. Judkins cleared 1,200 yards and scored at least 16 times in all three of his collegiate seasons, and that pedigree is what required the Browns to spend a second-round pick on him.

That said, they have gotten a full camp of Dylan Sampson and are comfortable with Jerome Ford. This profiles as a wide-open committee situation, making it a problem to fade for now. Rostering any of these backs is more of an October play, and that might be on the optimistic side of things.

Rachaad White (at Falcons)

Specialists are nice to have. In certain fantasy football spots, having a specific niche can be great, but we have an issue when there is no need for that specialist.

Rachaad White is great as a route runner out of the backfield, with a career 7.5 yards per catch and an 89.2% catch rate, but every rushing metric box is left unchecked. From finding holes to breaking tackles, White’s 3.8 yards per carry is a simplistic stat that tells the same story as advanced ones.

The downside for him is that Bucky Irving is much closer to White in the pass-catching department than White is to Irving as a runner. This raises the question of why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would need to force the RB2 onto the field.

You could convince me that he can be used in PPR formats when he is fully healthy, especially if you think Irving’s profile will decline with Liam Coen out of the play-calling mix.

However, I need proof of concept in the overall role department before I’m the least bit tempted to flex White, even in a game that has the potential to shoot out like this one.

Ray Davis (vs. Ravens)

What would you say if I asked you how many yards per carry Ray Davis averaged in 2024? I guess that your answer would be high because of the standout nature of some of his performances. The reality is that he averaged 3.9 yards per carry last year.

When called upon, he was solid, posting over 13 PPR points in all three games where he touched the ball more than 10 times. Still, he was not featured in a meaningful way nearly enough to make him anything more than a depth piece on your roster to open the season.

When I think of Davis’s 2024 season, I remember a few long catches and a few bulldozing runs, but that is really all he had. For the entire year, 55.6% of his receiving yards came on two receptions. The Buffalo Bills trusted him so little that they gave him only seven opportunities, rushes plus targets, during their three-game playoff run.

Only twice during the fantasy season did Davis clear 10 touches. Without reliable volume, he’s James Cook insurance and nothing more.

Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. Raiders)

There’s a reason New England invested in the running back position in April, as the team looks to build a winner on the fly around Drake Maye and his rookie contract. Rhamondre Stevenson’s explosion and versatility have tailed off in a meaningful way during his four years as a pro, and the Patriots’ patience seems to be wearing thin.

PFSN Elusive Rating, by season:

• 2021: 38.3%
• 2022: 33.8%
• 2023: 28.2%
• 2024: 27.1%

5+ yard rush rate, by season:

• 2021: 40.6%
• 2022: 37.6%
• 2023: 36.5%
• 2024: 32.4%

While the Raiders and their 21st-ranked red zone defense from last season don’t seem intimidating, Stevenson doesn’t profile as the type of back worth starting unless he’s getting the full workload. I’m not entering this season assuming he is assured of that role.

Perhaps I’m wrong, and Stevenson will be the workhorse until proven otherwise. However, a fumble in early August practices didn’t inspire confidence that his ball security woes are a thing of the past. I’m not writing off a 27-year-old back who the organization is comfortable with, even if they aren’t overwhelmed by his performance.

If loyalty wins out in the early going, I’ll pivot next week, but I’m not opening the season projecting Stevenson to get enough work to be a viable option in this spot.

RJ Harvey (vs. Titans)

It’s difficult to name the last running back drafted in Rounds 2-4 who had more than 15 touches in Week 1 of his rookie season. It’s a rare feat for a player who didn’t get the Round 1 draft capital that essentially demands immediate involvement, but still worked his way into such a role by the opener.

In fact, you have to go back nearly a decade to 2017, when both Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt accomplished it, earning the confidence of their respective teams over the summer to become lead backs from the jump.

RJ Harvey could join that list, but he is working against recent NFL history, and coach Sean Payton isn’t shy about taking a committee approach. In my eyes, Harvey is the best bet in this backfield both this week and moving forward, but the risk of the unknown must be weighed, which has him slipping a touch in my ranks.

If we see a clear plan from Payton, Harvey will be locked in as an RB2 for me next week and potentially for the rest of the season. I tend to tread with caution in Week 1, understanding that my roster is full of healthy options at this point. That is why I have this impressive rookie as more of a low-end flex play against a defense that quietly ranked 12th-best in success rate against opposing running backs a season ago.

Saquon Barkley (vs. Cowboys)

Can Saquon Barkley repeat the video game numbers he produced with his dynamic moves last season? Probably not, and as I argued this summer regarding the growth potential of both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, it doesn’t matter now.

If Barkley was your first-round pick, odds are you will be just fine. Only time will tell if he deserves to be at the top, middle, or back of Tier 1, but his standing as an elite asset is unquestioned, and you’re playing him without a second thought.

He produced the top running back game of last season, with 46.2 PPR points against the Rams in Week 12, and the Cowboys were the only defense to allow 35-plus points to a running back on multiple occasions (Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon). This makes it a spotlight game where he could go bonkers.

The spike games are going to come, whether it’s this week, next week, or sometime in November. That much feels inevitable. The pro-Barkley angle during draft season was about his elevated floor, and that feels as close to bulletproof as anything at the position. The Eagles are happy to control tempo, impose their will, and beat you into submission.

Maybe Barkley rips off a 50-yard touchdown to welcome in the new season, or maybe he doesn’t. He had 20-plus carries on 10 occasions last season and is as good a bet for 20-plus points as anyone in the sport.

What I’m watching in this game is the route count. In his first season with the Birds, Barkley saw 43 passes thrown his way in 16 games. With the Giants, the man averaged over 62 catches, not targets, per 16 games. If he’s going to pay off his preseason ADP truly, I think he needs to find a middle ground between those two outcomes. We could get a feel for any minor tweak in his responsibilities in this divisional matchup to start Philadelphia’s title defense.

Tyjae Spears (at Broncos)

Tyjae Spears has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over his two low-volume seasons with the Titans, and while his path to an enhanced role is there (11-13 touches) in an offense we expect to take a step forward under Cam Ward, there is no reason to roster him at the moment.

A summer ankle injury has Spears on injured reserve, and that means he’ll miss at least all of September. In theory, he could work into game shape as Halloween approaches, just in time for Tennessee’s Week 10 bye.

It should be noted that the Titans get the Saints in Week 17 – stashing him for the fantasy postseason could make sense, but that’s a minimum of two months away from needing to be on your radar.

Tank Bigsby (vs. Panthers)

Do I think Tank Bigsby enters the season as the lead back in Jacksonville? I do. He was the lesser of two evils in 2024, and Bhatshul Tuten’s fourth-round draft capital probably is not enough to vault him into a split workload from the jump.

Of course, not all lead backs deserve to be locked into fantasy lineups. This is one of those situations, despite the Panthers’ worst defense in the league, according to our Defense+ metric.

The Jaguars’ ground attack should be successful in this spot, but the touch distribution has me worried. I am not taking on more risk than necessary in Week 1.

It is possible that offensive coordinator Liam Coen sprinkles fantasy dust on this backfield and gifts us a single back who takes over, similar to Bucky Irving last season. While I am open to that idea, I am willing to be a week or two late on that prediction rather than too early.

Tony Pollard (at Broncos)

It’s a no for me, dawg.

From 2019-2022, 29 running backs had at least 450 rush attempts, and here is your leaderboard in PPR production relative to expectations:

Derrick Henry: +22.4%

Tony Pollard: +18.4%

Nick Chubb: +16.6%

Austin Ekeler: +16.2%

Christian McCaffrey: +16%

That stat right there is the reason you have Pollard on your roster and are looking to me for advice. That production was great, and if you had a time machine, I’d be all in. Assuming that is not the case, I want no part of plugging in Tennessee’s RB1 against the defense that posted the best success rate against opposing running backs last season.

From 2023-2024, 44 running backs had at least 200 rush attempts, and here is the bottom of that list in PPR production relative to expectations:

40) Ezekiel Elliott: -11.8%
41) Kareem Hunt: -13.4%
42) Pollard: -13.9%
43) Javonte Williams: -18.1%
44) Alexander Mattison: -21.6%

This is not exactly a list of players I want to invest in. Pollard deserves to be rostered in all formats because of his current role projection with Tyjae Spears on injured reserve (ankle) and the potential for this offense to take a real step forward under Cam Ward. However, starting him in Week 1 is a landmine I will happily avoid.

Furthermore, Spears has seen 30.8% of his career touches come via reception, making it no lock that Pollard will pick up garbage-time points should this game get away from the visitors.

Travis Etienne Jr. (vs. Panthers)

The good news is that you were not asked to spend much draft capital to get a piece of a Liam Coen offense that could level up in a major way.

The bad news is that you have a running back who has shown enough to tempt you into rolling the dice in this plus-matchup. The Panthers allowed 6.0 yards per play last season, the worst rate in the league. Even so, you cannot be sure what the touch count is going to look like.

Travis Etienne Jr. was an unmitigated disaster last season; that much is hard to argue. Everything that is tempting you to play him in this spot builds just as strong a case in the other direction. The defense you want to target is the same one that Tank Bigsby and Bhatshul Tuten are running against.

If this is a three-man race to see who can impress the new coaching staff first in live action, there will likely be two losers. If there are two losers in a three-man competition, does that not mean you have greater odds to fail than to succeed as a fantasy manager?

I am holding all members of this backfield and trusting none in Week 1.

Fantasy football is fun, isn’t it?

TreVeyon Henderson (vs. Raiders)

Did you know that since the start of 2023, only 22 players have more carries than Rhamondre Stevenson, yet 52 have more carries of 15 yards or more? The fumbling problems for Stevenson in 2024 were highlighted as the reason for a future role reduction, but they were more of a final straw than the root cause.

As a rookie, Stevenson posted an impressive 38.3% PFSN Elusive Rating, a rate that has declined every year since, reaching 27.1% in 2024. The Patriots have every reason to look for other options as they try to build around rookie quarterback Drake Maye. New England is contractually tied to Stevenson for another season after this one before they can move on in 2027.

Meanwhile, TreVeyon Henderson turned heads all summer, and his kickoff return for a touchdown in the preseason only fanned those flames. The stage appears set for him to become the lead back in the offense sooner rather than later, but the question is how quickly he will assume control. My guess is it will happen before the end of September, but probably not in this first game. Henderson’s modest touch projection places him in the flex tier of my running back rankings for this favorable matchup.

While that’s not ideal, he represents a risk worth taking over receivers whose best days are likely behind them, like the Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Stefon Diggs of the world.

Tyler Allgeier (vs. Buccaneers)

I think Tyler Allgeier is an above-average NFL RB. In two of his three professional seasons, he’s graded, per our RB+ metric, as a top-20 runner in the league.

Many players in this league would like to have that honor, but it matters little for our purposes.

There’s no world in which he is taking food off Bijan Robinson’s plate, which makes him among the best handcuff options in the game, but unusable when the starting role isn’t his. Last season, Allgeier saw more than a dozen carries just once, resulting in an 18-point domination of the Panthers. If you’re ever going to go this route in a DFS sense, it would have to be in a game where you think Atlanta can get their regulars some rest: this isn’t that.

The Buccaneers have won the NFC South in each of the past four seasons and are going to see as much Robinson as they can handle this weekend and then some. Allgeier will get his handful of touches, but I wouldn’t bank on much more than that, and that makes him a player you can’t seriously consider.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (at Commanders)

I’m not sure a fifth-round pick who totaled over 1,100 scrimmage yards as a rookie has ever been shown less respect than Tyrone Tracy Jr. His performance may not have jumped off the screen in 2024, but when you adjust for his team’s context, the season he had was more than anyone could have reasonably expected.

Now, after the team spent a fourth-round pick on another running back, the fantasy community seems to be done with Tracy. I understand that Cam Skattebo has a gritty, workhorse profile and could prove to be a bargain, but he is not Ashton Jeanty, and this is not the Raiders’ backfield.

A hamstring injury during camp tempered some of the expectations and forced the industry to put more respect on Tracy’s name. In the short term, that seems wise. He profiles as the lead back for an offense that will try to sustain drives and play defense with its running game. It’s far from a bulletproof plan in 2025 and isn’t likely to work against the high-flying Commanders.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the industry thought more of Tracy after Week 1 than it does now. Based on ADP, you drafted at least two backs ahead of him, meaning you are not committing to him this week, and I think that’s the right call. However, if you went with a zero-RB build, this is exactly the type of back you want early in the season, especially against a run defense that was the fifth-worst on a per-carry basis a season ago.

Woody Marks (at Rams)

Woody Marks was a fourth-round selection in April after a five-year college career that concluded with a strong showing at USC in 2024, where he posted 1,454 scrimmage yards with nine scores. His path to a clear role wasn’t obvious when the Texans drafted him, but with Joe Mixon out for at least a month and potentially longer, his profile is worth exploring. He’s a significant threat in the passing game, a skill that could shine this season given the offensive line woes Houston figures to have.

During his prep career, 30.1% of his touches came via reception. During the scouting process, his vision and ball security were praised, but his lack of big-play speed was noted as a limiting factor.

Marks proved with the Trojans last season that he is capable of handling a heavy workload, with eight straight games of 15-plus carries in the middle of the season. However, it would be surprising if the Texans deployed him that way as long as Nick Chubb remains healthy. We are likely looking at an 8-to-10 touch role out of the gate with some PPR upside if the game script tilts that way. Houston gets the Bucs next week and plays in Baltimore in Week 5, two games where they could be playing from behind.

Now, let’s address the question you are probably thinking: why is a player named Jo’Quavious nicknamed Woody? As it turns out, he was a Toy Story fan growing up and dressed as Woody the cowboy for Halloween for nearly a decade. Since every game log lists him as “Woody,” we will stick with that until told otherwise and prepare the Toy Story puns should he earn a larger role.

Zach Charbonnet (vs. 49ers)

Zach Charbonnet is the West Coast version of Tyler Allgeier, and that’s all there is to it for now. In a vacuum, I prefer Charbonnet because I think he is closer to a meaningful role, but with a healthy starter in front of him, there’s no clear path to feeling good about starting him in any capacity.

The 49ers project as a defense to target, and I don’t think that will change over the next four months. With health generally strong across the league right now and no bye weeks to navigate, you’d have to be in a tough spot to consider Charbonnet and his sub-10 touch role.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers: A.J. Brown (vs. Cowboys)

Due to the way this offense operates, it’s understandable to have concerns about consistency with A.J. Brown. I share them with you, and there are going to be some weeks when Philadelphia’s other stars shine brighter.

I don’t think we’ll run into that issue to open the season.

Brown has cleared 90 yards or scored a touchdown in all six career games against the Cowboys (2.78 yards per route across those contests), and either of these actions likely results in WR1 production this week.

We will likely discuss labeling Brown as a DFS fade in future weeks based on a specific set of circumstances. This week is not that. Feel free to run him out there in your Showdown lineups and as a bona fide star in your season-long leagues.

Adam Thielen (at Bears)

The Vikings elected to bring Adam Thielen home on August 27 after extended talks of a trade with the Panthers, and with Jordan Addison suspended for three games, there could be some short-term value to chase here.

The veteran receiver caught 103 balls in 2023 and was the WR8 from 2017-18 with these Vikings, but I’d be shocked if we got anything close to that value in this, his age-35 season. He’s pretty clearly the fourth pass catcher when this roster is at full strength in an offense with a QB who has yet to make an NFL start and a backfield that features one of the 10 best pass catchers at the running back position.

Does that appeal to you?

It doesn’t to me. I won’t stop you if you want to get cute in a DFS GPP format. A six-catch, 50-yard performance is within the reasonable range of outcomes (subscribe to the PFSN Betting Newsletter for an angle on why the non-Justin Jefferson Vikings could show out in Week 1). You’ll see massive profits on your limited investment if he finds the end zone.

You could squint and see the case for this archetype in a spot like that. Other than that, Thielen isn’t the type of player I’m interested in rostering in a season-long format, let alone flexing him in Week 1.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (at Packers)

You drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first round this summer, understanding that there could be some bumps in the road.

Jameson Williams’ development is a focal point. Sam LaPorta has shown the ability to produce efficiently, and Detroit might have the most dynamic backfield in the sport.

Oh, and their offensive mastermind is now employed by a divisional rival.

Those are real concerns I don’t care about in the season opener. St. Brown is a gifted player, regardless of who builds the game plan, and the Packers have shown no ability to slow him down. Over their past four meetings, the star wideout has produced 21.6% over expectations with 26 catches for 250 yards and two scores on his 31 targets.

I don’t think there’s a great chance he is the top scoring WR for the week, but the chances of Green Bay slowing him to the point where you have 2-3 better options are far more unlikely. St. Brown stands alone atop the list of 100-yard receiving games since 2023 with 13 and should be viewed as just as much of an elite option sans Johnson as he was with him.

Brandon Aiyuk (at Seahawks)

The 49ers are hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023.

By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we could at least enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off your plate early on.

In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.

This injury was priced into Aiyuk’s cost at your draft, so there’s no point in trading for him now. But what if his manager starts slow? What if panic mode sets in before we have a definitive return date?

I’m mentally noting who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up in September.

Brian Thomas Jr. (vs. Panthers)

Does Brian Thomas Jr. see some natural regression in the target department during his second season? I’d say so. The Jags might compete at a higher level this year than last (seventh lowest ‘playing with a lead rate’), and the addition of Travis Hunter brings the risk of not only the pie getting smaller, but Thomas’ piece getting trimmed.

A little bit.

The fact is that BTJ was never going to replicate his elite volume from a season ago. Over the final six weeks of last season, Ja’Marr Chase and Thomas were the only receivers to earn 70+ targets and catch 45+ passes. That’s a pretty high bar to clear for a second consecutive season, especially with a new offensive mind at the controls.

I don’t see this being a problem. Thomas cleared fantasy expectations by 22.3% as a rookie, which speaks to the type of raw ability that can allow him to survive a minor drawback on the target count and continue to thrive despite it.

Thomas needs to repeat what we saw last season to crack the top tier at the position for me. He doesn’t need anywhere near that production level to be locked into fantasy lineups as a WR1, and the season opener is no different.

Calvin Ridley (at Broncos)

Calvin Ridley may feel as if he’s been in the NFL for a decade, but this is only his 30th season, and he enters it as the clear-cut WR1 in an offense that believes it has landed its franchise quarterback.

It’s an easy case to make for Ridley to post 1,000 yards for the fourth time in five seasons and hit seven scores for the fifth time in his career, but I’m proceeding with caution. The fact of the matter is that we have no idea what the target distribution will look like in Tennessee under Cam Ward, and that’s even more so the case against a Denver unit that earned top marks in our Defense+ grading metric in 2024.

You don’t have to plug in Ridley this week in a perfect world. I like the idea of playing him at a very low ownership number in the DFS streets, understanding that this is a tough matchup. However, even tough matchups get busted from time to time (Denver was one of two defenses in 2024 to allow multiple 40-point games to an opposing WR).

The Broncos allowed the fifth-lowest touchdown pass rate last season, probably making Ward’s NFL debut one to forget. That’s why I’m benching him in all season-long formats, taking only GPP shots if I want to leverage the game theory side of that game.

Cedric Tillman (vs. Bengals)

Cedric Tillman might make someone $1,000,000 in Week 1, but that doesn’t make him a responsible play in any season-long format.

The skeleton of a throughline for Tillman is in place, and we got some confirmation with Diontae Johnson’s release. He’s an imposing athlete with third-round draft capital spent on him, three touchdown catches through two career seasons, and a bunch of uncertainty at the quarterback position.

That’s where we stood with Nico Collins entering 2023, C.J Stroud’s rookie season.

Stroude entered the NFL with more pedigree than anything the Browns are going to run out onto a field in 2025, but you understand what I’m saying: it’s too early to sell off any shares of Tillman you’re still holding.

I guess he could realize his ceiling in Week 1 in a play-from-behind spot against a defense that allowed a touchdown on 10.7% of deep passes, the second-highest rate in the league last season. If you want to allocate a single bullet DraftKings lineup that way, it could be a fun way to spend your coffee money for the day, but there’s absolutely no reason to take on that risk in anything but a GPP setting.

I tend to be aggressive in these fluid passing offenses, rostering players like Tillman to start the season and being quick to react to new information as it becomes available. I have a few shares as we prepare for the start of the season, with the thought that playing time should be a given. But I’m not considering him this week and will take his inclusion on the backend of my redraft roster under consideration every week.

CeeDee Lamb (at Eagles)

A new year means plenty of change. Some things have sparked (“Kai” is the most popular baby name, up 120 spots from 2024, and ESPN now owns the Red Zone channel) while some oldies have become good again (Damian Lillard is a Trail Blazer and Happy Gilmore is back in the public consciousness).

CeeDee Lamb’s role doesn’t fit into either box. There’s nothing new to see here: he’s reached double-digit targets in an NFL-best 18 games since the beginning of 2023. For reference, the Mike Evans and Chris Godwin tandem has combined for 16 such games over that stretch.

If you want to dock him fractions of points for adding George Pickens, be my guest, but there’s nothing actionable on that front. You should be thrilled to have this combination of stability and ceiling.

Matchup proof. Script proof. Proof of negative analysis. Don’t overthink it.

Chris Godwin (at Falcons)

The Bucs activated Chris Godwin off the PUP list on August 21 (Week 7, fractured ankle), but he is expected to miss all of September.

Of course, this was baked into the 29-year-old’s draft-day price tag. Unless something changes drastically, this will be the sixth time in seven years that Godwin has missed multiple games. But there is hope that the cautious rehab approach results in him peaking at the right time for both the Bucs and his loyal fantasy managers.

Tampa Bay has a well-positioned Week 9 bye, which could allow Godwin to see how much he can test his body in the second month of the season, knowing that an off week isn’t too far off.

In any event, you drafted him with the hope that he’d be a 1,000-yard pace player for a seventh straight season with consistent volume for you when he hits the field, and we have no real reason to think he won’t be.

His lack of touchdowns was a concern heading into last season, but five of his 50 catches in 2024 resulted in scores, giving us hope that we are looking at a WR2 down the stretch. The Bucs close the season with about as favorable a schedule as anyone in the league, giving him an even better chance to impact your fantasy season massively, even if he’s not doing that in the first month.

• Week 13 vs. Cardinals
• Week 14 vs. Saints
• Week 15 vs. Falcons
• Week 16 at Panthers
• Week 17 at Dolphins
• Week 18 vs. Panthers

Chris Olave (vs. Cardinals)

The Chris Olave discussion was interesting this summer, and I suspect it’ll be a hot-button one as the season progresses. He’s a high-pedigree player with his best days (hopefully) ahead of him, but he’s at the mercy of what projects as a broken offense.

Through three seasons, Olave’s per 17-game yardage average is 1,119, a very respectable total when you consider that the average QB+ rank of Derek Carr over those three seasons was nothing more than ordinary (17th).

The problem is that we aren’t the least confident that New Orleans will get QB17-level play this season. Does the quarterback’s play impact his fantasy value more than the perceived talent? Do they cancel each other out and make his low-end WR3 ADP accurate?

The truth is that we need some data points before making an educated guess on this front. I’m tempted to trust his lead role over stars in decline (Cooper Kupp/Stefon Diggs types), other receivers with question marks under center (Jerry Jeudy and Calvin Ridley), or even players in new spots up against a tough opponent (George Pickens).

I’m cautiously optimistic that you’ll get a nice return on your Olave investment, and who am I to say that he can’t show some upside this week with time to operate (Arizona: eighth-lowest pressure rate in 2024).

Christian Kirk (at Rams)

UPDATE: Kirk will miss Week 1 after suffering a hamstring injury this week at practice. His status is currently TBD for next week. For some context about the type of receiver that can beat the Rams (maybe Jaylin Noel in this spot), below is the write up for why I was high on Kirk when we he was at full strength.

My boss loves it when I do this.

Pull up a chair. I’m going to empty the research bucket here on a deep dive that you didn’t know you needed.

I’m higher than your favorite fantasy analyst on Nico Collins, and I might also check that box when it comes to the Week 1 outlook for the Robin to his Batman.

Texans WR Nico Collins leads all receivers (min. 175 targets) in PPR points above expectation over the past two seasons (+28.8%).@KyleSoppePFN is all-in on Collins in fantasy football this season. 👀 pic.twitter.com/EgL3pZ0hth

— PFSN (@PFSN365) August 4, 2025

Let’s start with the C.J. Stroud thing. If we knew Stroud would be the Rookie of the Year version of himself (QB5 in our QB+ metric), not whatever last season was (QB33), you’d likely be more in on Kirk. Is that fair to say?

I’m high on Stroud for the season, but we are only talking about this first week. Last season, on non-Collins targets, Stroud saw his yards per completion drop by 18.9%, fueled by underwhelming after-catch numbers (down 9.1% despite a tanking aDOT, which is supposed to boost the YAC numbers, not hinder them).

We know that Christian Kirk has YAC potential, and if you insist on unpeeling this onion, you’ll notice an interesting trend.

Peak – down – down – down – peak – minor tick down – down

If you were a four-year-old learning to code patterns, you’d be tempted to think another down year is coming, but you’re better than that. You can think critically. What changed ahead of 2018 and 2022?

The organization.

Kirk was the 47th overall pick ahead of the 2018 season and then signed a four-year deal with the Jags in March of 2022 after posting career highs in catches and yards in Arizona. The counting numbers looked different, but look at the chart above, and you’ll see that his YAC numbers tanked.

Without any further context, that doesn’t sound good, but it was simply a result of a developing role. In all four of his Cardinal seasons, Kirk saw his percentage of targets coming 10+ yards increase, and the deeper the route, the less YAC equity is attached to it.

He signed the big deal in Jacksonville, and, like Arizona, they used him as an underneath option, asking him to support their short pass game. As time passed, he impressed, and they elected to evolve his role.

This past offseason, the Texans, who have access to far greater data than I do, moved a 2026 seventh-round pick for Kirk, coming off a year in which their franchise QB didn’t get post-catch help from their secondary receivers.

Interesting, no?

In 2023, a defense led by Aaron Donald in Los Angeles ranked as the fifth-best unit at preventing yards after the catch per reception, but that strength evaporated in 2024 sans the future Hall of Famer (rank: 25th, behind the Bengals).

My galaxy brain thought behind that occurrence is exotic play-scheming. When Darnold was on the other side of the line, offenses generally knew what to do: double or triple-team that monster. During Raheem Morris’s tenure (2021-23), the Rams never truly unlocked the art of blitzing around their game-wrecker, ranking 27th in pressure rate when blitzing. If you can’t create pressure when blitzing and your base front is simple to scheme against, opposing quarterbacks will have time to throw.

Time to throw means deeper passes, and that means fewer YAC opportunities.

In 2024, there was no Donald to use as a crutch, nor was Morris calling the shots. Chris Shula took over the DC reins, a role he will walk into in 2025, and spent seven years tied to the second level of the Rams defense.

And guess what? They were the fourth-best defense at creating pressure, with a rate of 46.2% (league average: 40.6%). The next logical step in that progression is to ramp up the blitz rate, increasing the pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Should that occur in this matchup, could Nico Collins’ deep targets be limited? It’s possible. Regardless of your reading on that portion of this equation, the signs point to some short throws in this matchup, with Kirk being the primary option on those routes.

Do you remember Kirk’s reintroduction to the fantasy world following a change of address the first time?

That’s what I’m here for. Jacksonville brought him in, schemed him up, and made him the only WR in our game to reach 17 PPR points in the first three weeks of his first season in town. I’m not suggesting that the now 28-year-old comes out of the gates quite that fast. Still, with only rookies really competing with him for targets next to Collins, I think we are looking at a redraft Week 1 flex and an exciting triple stack that isn’t garnering much attention.

Cooper Kupp (vs. 49ers)

I’m proud of us as a community.

Cooper Kupp has prominent name recognition and is starting a new situation with not only a quarterback coming off a career year but also one that lacks much target competition behind him on the depth chart.

If you wanted to sell yourself on a huge age-32 season, you could have convinced yourself. We all could have jammed Kupp inside the top-30 of the position in terms of ADP and been content to draft him at, or above, his 2025 ceiling.

But we showed restraint. Go us!

I fear, however, that the job isn’t done. Every advanced metric indicates a physical decline and uneven production on the horizon. We all seem to be on board with that general premise, but we observe overreactions in Week 1 every year.

The 49ers were the seventh-worst defense per Defense+ last season, and it’s reasonable to project similar struggles to continue through 2025. Combine that with the fact that Kupp has reached triple-figure receiving yards in each of his past four season openers (average numbers: 10.5 catches for 115.3 yards), and there’s a world in which Kupp clears our modest Week 1 projections and generates some excitement in your league.

“Uneven production”

We agreed that there would be ups and downs. It’s easy to get carried away with the first data point of the season. Be careful. You can squint and see a flex option in Kupp in this matchup if it makes you feel good (personally, he’s at the back-end of that conversation, not the front), but should he go nuts in this perfect spot at full strength, remember where you stood on his outlook before kickoff.

Courtland Sutton (vs. Titans)

Courtland Sutton leads the NFL in games with an end zone target over the past two seasons with 24 (Mike Evans is the only other player to crack 20), scoring 18 times on his 140 receptions over that stretch.

Denver’s clear-cut WR1 was a high-pedigree prospect coming out of SMU and posted a 1,100-yard season in his second professional campaign. He then fell off our radar for a few years, but his stock is as high as ever, thanks in part to his raw talent and the upward trajectory of this offense.

The target share appears to be safe (Pat Bryant is an interesting flier, but he’s going to have to learn to take food off Sutton’s plate before I project it), and we trust this offense to move the ball. This isn’t a bad matchup, and that’s why I have Sutton ranked as a strong flex option, though it is important to remember that not all bad matchups are created equal.

Yes, Tennessee graded 24th in our Defense+ metric in 2024, and fortunately for Sutton managers, they were the fifth most friendly in terms of opponent end zone completion percentage (47.5%, league average: 36.6%). This is a plus spot on the surface that gets better the deeper you delve into things.

I’m lukewarm on Sutton for the season as a whole, with the thought being that Bryant, as well as the addition of Evan Engram and maybe some more efficiency from the running game, eat into his bottom line with time, but for Week 1, it’s a wheels-up situation!

Darius Slayton (at Commanders)

On a spreadsheet, this Giants offense makes some sense. We have the old ushering in the new at the quarterback position, with cheap draft capital spent in the backfield, and a receiving trio that features an ascending star alongside a pair of experienced options with opposing skill sets.

If this were a matter of buying stock, I’d be interested. In the scope of 2025, however, I’m not as willing to invest. Slayton hasn’t had an 80-target season since 2020 and has seen most of his touchdowns come on balls thrown more than 20 yards downfield (57.1%): he owns a particular set of skills.

That’s fine, and it might even play out in a matchup against a Washington defense that allowed the sixth-highest deep ball passer rating in the league last season. But do you really need to take on that risk in Week 1?

I don’t think so. By the time this game kicks off, we will be more than 11 months removed from his last match with 5+ receptions, and in two games against these Commanders, he didn’t have a single splash play.

If we see a new version of this offense or signs that defenses are content to have anyone not named Malik Nabers beat them, maybe we reconsider next season in Dallas. It’s OK to be a reactionary fantasy manager in cases like this when the risk is significant and the reward has only flickered over the past six years.

Darnell Mooney (vs. Buccaneers)

Update: Darnell Mooney is a surprise inactive today and will not play.

Darnell Mooney is coming off a career year in terms of fantasy production relative to expectation, fantasy points per target, and yards per route. The success was great to see after a pair of down seasons with the Bears, and it resurfaced the idea of him being a legitimate WR2 in a productive offense.

However, any momentum he had built entering 2025 was lost due to a summer shoulder injury. This offense could undoubtedly use a consistent WR2 to aid Michael Penix Jr.’s development. Still, with Bijan Robinson and, jokes aside, Kyle Pitts viable target earners, I think it’s fair to label Mooney’s 2024 as a ceiling for per-game production.

This is a situation to watch closely. Your IR list spot isn’t overly valuable this early in the season, but should this injury linger, there’s a good chance you will be asked to make a tough decision, and I’m not going to be fighting hard to keep Mooney rostered if that’s the case.

Davante Adams (vs. Texans)

People of a certain age don’t remember a world in which Davante Adams wasn’t a threat whenever his team reached the red zone or a world in which Matthew Stafford wasn’t elevating the WR talent around him.

With both vets on the back-9 of their careers, there’s a chance we see both of those “known” quantities fall off.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

The Texans were the fourth-best yards per play defense in 2024, but they were also the sixth-worst red zone unit. I don’t think there’s a good chance that Adams earns more targets than Puka Nacua this week or, honestly, any week in which they are both active. Still, I think there’s a good chance he will be the first read in highly valuable situations and projects as a player worthy of my time.

As long as Stafford’s outlook is reasonably optimistic, I’m comfortable assuming that Adams pays off my faith in ranking him as a starter more often than not. That will keep him inside my top-20 at the position for the foreseeable future.

DeAndre Hopkins (at Bills)

DeAndre Hopkins was on the field for just 47.5% of Chiefs snaps last season, which is easily a career low, and it’s hard to expect him to bite off a role in Baltimore that puts him on our radar on any sort of consistent basis.

As mentioned above, the Chiefs join the Bengals, Cowboys, Titans, Colts, and Saints as teams on bye in Weeks 10-11, a stretch in which the Ravens face defenses that thrive in chaos (Minnesota and Cleveland). If I had to get out the crystal ball and find a window in which Hopkins could justify flex consideration, that would be it, with the understanding that he carves out a niche in Todd Monken’s scheme and earns Lamar Jackson’s trust.

For now, you need not chase the big name.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (vs. Giants)

Deebo Samuel Sr. is 29 years old, but I think we can all agree that his style of play makes him an “old” 29. He’s a contact-seeking missile who has 202 rush attempts on top of his 334 receptions, and the man has never played in every game of a season.

Washington’s move for him makes sense. He’s a low-risk option at this point in a position of need, and I do think there will be a few vintage spots this year, given the gravity that Jayden Daniels creates.

Forecasting those spots, however, is an inexact science at the moment. Perhaps we’ll gain some clarity after watching a few games. This offense can be creative and could result in Samuel’s unique skill set being leveraged meaningfully, but I need to see it first.

He’s outside of my top-35 at the position this week, and I don’t see him entering that class at any point in September.

DeMario Douglas (vs. Raiders)

DeMario Douglas is discount Khalil Shakir in that he is the short-range option in an offense with a franchise QB who can just as easily pick up those yards with his legs as his arm.

It’s not the sexiest profile, but I made a point of leaving every redraft with a player of this ILK (Douglas and Wan’Dale Robinson make up most of those shares). Receivers who can elevate your floor are valuable in a pinch; we just aren’t there yet.

DeVonta Smith (vs. Cowboys)

To comfortably fit into a PPR lineup, you want to be able to count on your receiver for 15-ish points. There’s some leeway in there, but if you’re entering the week with a 15-point expectation, that’s generally a good dividing line when looking to separate those who looked into your lineup from those who could find themselves on the bench if the matchups work out in such a way.

Over the past season, DeVonta Smith has averaged 14.7 PPG. He has cleared 15 points in 14 games and failed to do so 15 times. He’s a coin flip to get to my threshold, and that was reflected in his ADP this summer.

He’s either on the low-end of lineup locks or the high-end of matchup-reliant players. The limited volume of passes thrown in Philadelphia creates a floor for Smith (and A.J. Brown, for that matter) that is lower than his talent would suggest, but that’s how this team is built.

Guess what. It works for them; they don’t care about your fantasy lineup.

That is a warning for the remainder of the season, not in the season opener. Smith faces the fourth-worst yards per play defense from 2024, which he tore up in the Week 17 blowout win (120 catches and two scores on seven targets).

When you drafted Smith, you knew that you were inheriting some weekly risk. There will be some valleys to struggle through, but I don’t think this is one of those spots, and I’m ranking him as a starter in all formats.

DJ Moore (vs. Vikings)

Rome Odunze may take a massive step forward in 2025. Maybe Colston Loveland is a quick study, or Luther Burden III is the next great receiver.

Those things are possible, but they are not assumptions I am entering this season with. At this moment, I’m assuming that DJ Moore is the WR1 in an offense that I expect to take as big a step forward as any team in the league this season.

So why wouldn’t I start him?

The Vikings had the highest interception rate in the NFL in 2024 (3.8% of opponent passes, league average: 2.2%), and they can overwhelm the unprepared. Still, Ben Johnson saw them twice a season ago and called a game in which his quarterback completed 49 of 58 passes (84.5%).

There might be some growing pains for Chicago as it adapts to this new system, but a skill set like Moore’s is safe. Although Week 1 isn’t the best we’ve seen of the Bears in 2025, their de facto WR1 should be a floor-elevating player that fantasy managers can bank on.

DK Metcalf (at Jets)

Since you last saw DK Metcalf, he’s been traded, signed a five-year extension, been compared to Steph Curry, and had his personality blend with his quarterback called into question.

Outside of that, nothing is new.
I wasn’t in a hurry to draft Metcalf as a weekly starter this summer, but his ADP did fall within the top-24 range at the position, which means that you likely penciled him into your starting lineup when you picked him.

So now what?

You’re opposing a defense that was top-5 in yards, yards per play, and pressure rate a season ago, all of which are trends that work against any sort of ceiling effort from Metcalf.

With time, I could see Metcalf as a viable floor option. He works his way into Aaron Rodgers’s tight trust circle, proves capable of winning on quick-breaking routes, and posts a strong target share.

We might get there, but I’m not opening the season by assuming we are in an Arthur Smith system that can lack creativity. I like the Broncos, Eagles, Ravens, and Lions to easily outscore the Steelers in what projects to be a game with little pace. All offenses have a receiver drafted in the Metcalf tier this summer.

I don’t think you’re doomed if you play Metcalf. He’s a tough matchup, and while Rodgers isn’t an MVP candidate anymore, he’s capable of feeding an alpha receiver. That said, the floor/ceiling math has him ranking, for me, a handful of spots lower this week than where you drafted him, and that opens the starting lineup conversation.

Drake London (vs. Buccaneers)

Twice, Drake London has produced at least 45% over fantasy expectations, given his target diet at home against the Bucs. That’s twice in three such games.

He’s done that once in his 22 home games against all other franchises.

London caught 16 of 19 targets against Tampa Bay last season, data that came with Kirk Cousins under center. The Falcons, and the NFL for that matter, have told us that Michael Penix Jr. is the better option under center right now, and I think we see proof of that for the majority of the season.

Darnell Mooney missed time this summer with a shoulder injury, giving us even more confidence in the safety of London’s volume, not that we needed it. I struggle to give Atlanta’s WR1 elite ceiling potential, but I think he should be locked into lineups with confidence due to an elevated floor and stock that could increase with time as Penix develops on the fly.

It is worth noting that these teams will play again in Week 15. If London lights them up and you want to buy high on him, know that you could be looking at another massive performance in December.

Emeka Egbuka (at Falcons)

Everybody has a routine. Plenty of people wake up to a cup of coffee. Others insist on a workout before the sun rises.

This summer, we in the fantasy industry are comforted by more positive reporting around Ekeka Egbuka.

The 19th overall pick in April has Bucs brass telling anyone who will listen about his potential, confirming what the college tape and stat lines suggest (two 1,000-yard 10-TD seasons).

He’s ready.

The playing time out of the gate is TBD, and that’s enough for him to be off my flex radar, but I’m not sure how long I’ll be able to stay that disciplined. The Falcons were the fourth-worst Defense+ unit a season ago, and if Egbuka backs up the talk of his coaches, there’s a chance he moves from outside of my flex zone to firmly in the WR3 range in short order.

Tampa Bay’s schedule tightens after the opener (Texans, Jets, and Eagles to round out September), which could make Egbuka a more long-term producer. However, regardless of how we get there, I think you’re going to profit from this investment.

Garrett Wilson (vs. Steelers)

Justin Fields-led offenses have averaged 3% fewer offensive plays per game during his career than the NFL norm, and I see no reason to think that’ll be different in 2025.

Low play volume and potentially limited pass accuracy are big reasons I have very few shares of Garrett Wilson this season. The Steelers were the second-best defense at getting off the field on third downs last season (35.3% opponent conversion rate, trailing only the Lions and part of Detroit’s success was impacted by the pressure their elite offense put on opponents, something that Pittsburgh didn’t exactly have access to. They profile themselves as a slow offense with Aaron Rodgers under center.

I’m not high on Wilson, but downgrading skill position players against Pittsburgh this year will be a common occurrence. That said, the raw talent is formidable to deny, and the target competition is borderline non-existent.

I’m not going in this direction in a DFS setting this week, and maybe not all season. In a season-long league, it’s unlikely that you have three receivers I prefer to New York’s WR1. My expectations aren’t high, though 7-9 targets for a player like this has a way of getting to a viable PPR number, even if it’s not the most aesthetically pleasing game.

George Pickens (at Eagles)

This, of course, is a tough spot to make a team debut. Not only is your starting quarterback facing live action for the first time in over 10 months, but you also get the reigning Super Bowl champions and their defense, which ranked second-best per our Defense+ grading during that run.

Based on the price you paid for George Pickens at your draft, he’s right on that flex fringe when it comes to your expectations, and for me, he’s on the wrong side of things this week.

That said, I am bullish on the idea of Pickens in the long term. Given the number of moving pieces, I wouldn’t sweat any Week 1 struggles. I looked back at the past two seasons, in Dak Prescott’s 25 starts, and realized that while the WR2 numbers weren’t eye-popping next to CeeDee Lamb, they weren’t as bad as I had assumed.

6 games with 8+ targets
7 games with 5+ receptions
10 games with 14+ PPR points

Those responsibilities were previously spread out, but are expected to be put almost exclusively on the former Steelers’ plate this season. I’d flex a safer bet this week (you’re betting too heavily on a touchdown in a tough spot if you pencil in Pickens), but stay the course; this is a player I think you did well to enter the season with.

Jakobi Meyers (at Patriots)

Revenge games are a fun narrative, even if they mean nothing. Jakobi Meyers began his career and was mocked relentlessly: he spent four years with the franchise and didn’t record his first touchdown reception until November of his third year.

With the Raiders, he’s averaged over five catches per game and has found paydirt 12 times across those 31 games. He’s not a fantasy game-breaker, but he’s a stable PPR option that should be able to find room to operate against the 30th-ranked Defense+ team from a year ago.

The touchdown equity is still a concern. He’s been better of late, but with Ashton Jeanty added to the mix, I wouldn’t project more than a handful of scores for the upcoming season. That, however, doesn’t mean he can’t be a consistent option with a high floor when you need it.

Do you need that skill set in your Week 1 starting lineup? Hopefully not. There aren’t any bye weeks, and, relative to a typical week across the NFL, there aren’t many injuries to deal with. In a deeper format, I don’t think you’re losing ground in considering Meyers as a flex this week. Given the number of active options you can access, I just trend toward a little more upside.

Meyers is worth your time if for no other reason than he requested a trade at the end of the preseason. The Raiders showed no desire to bend the knee, but it’s worth noting that he isn’t happy and could be on the move should one of these playoff hopeful teams suffer an injury, thus elevating his value.

Jalen Coker (at Jaguars)

Jalen Coker isn’t a player that you have to roster right now. Still, I’m always keeping tabs on young receivers in upward-trending offenses, especially when the team elects to move on from a proven commodity like the Panthers did in the last week of August with the trade of Adam Thielen.

The Carolina target hierarchy is something to track through the season’s first month. Coker averaged 14.9 yards per catch as a rookie and caught nearly 70% of balls thrown his way. He came out of Holy Cross and would always be on a delayed learning curve, given the situation he landed in.

Just store his name in the back of your head. Uncertain situations can breed fantasy difference makers, and while I think it’s a long shot that Coker is that in 2025, could some upside be of interest in the middle of the season as your roster takes on water and he is presumably activated off of IR (quad)? The Panthers play nothing but high-end offenses that they will try to keep up with or porous defenses that most will take advantage of?

Jalen McMillan (at Falcons)

I didn’t even have the chance to stand on the regression soapbox this offseason.

Jalen McMillan showed up in spurts as a rookie, but scoring on 21.6% of receptions isn’t stable. Nor was the 17.8-yard aDOT on those touchdowns.

There were plenty of holes to poke in this profile. Still, the drafting of Emeka Egbuka has him fighting for playing time and thus a non-factor in most formats when healthy, which clearly isn’t the case after a scary injury this preseason.

There is some athletic ability here, which means spike plays are bound to happen, but I don’t expect the route/target count to be high enough to garner our interest. If this turns into a WR rotation, we can adjust, but for the time being, McMillan is a player who holds contingent value when active, and that’s about it.

Ja’Marr Chase (at Browns)

The Browns were the top pressure defense in 2024, and that, on the surface, sounds like I’m trending toward an anti-Chase case in an effort to make headlines and take the internet by storm.

Relax.

Last season, Chase, on a per-target basis, was 27.2% better than the league average receiver when Joe Burrow wasn’t feeling the heat, a rate that spiked to 38.2% when pressure was applied. When push came to shove, Cincinnati’s WR1 was more WR1-ery the better the opposing front line played, a trait we tend to see from the true alphas who have an elite connection with their signal-caller.

You spent your first pick, likely the top overall pick, on Chase this summer and should feel great about that investment as the NFL has yet to find a way to slow him down. You should be aware that not all WR1s come out of the gates on fire.

WR1 per ADP

2024 CeeDee Lamb: WR23 with 13.6 points
2023 Justin Jefferson: WR7 with 24 points
2022 Copper Kupp: WR2 with 31.8 points
2021 Davante Adams: WR53 with 10.6 points
2020 Michael Thomas: WR78 with 4.7 points

Chase is a machine, and even during a triple crown season, he didn’t dominate the games (97 total yards and no touchdowns through the first two weeks of 2024).

You’re playing Chase every week without a second thought. If you told me he had to get a finger amputated on Thursday, I think he’s still cracking my top-15 at the position.

2.5

That’s my cutoff. If he had over 2.5 fingers amputated, I think I’d be making drastic ranking changes. There is tremendous variance at the position and in this sport as a whole, which is why I highlighted some of the past WR1 performances. However, the “start your stars” mantra is still something that I’m doing until something tangible changes.

Jameson Williams (at Packers)

Jared Goff leads the NFL with 21 games of 250+ passing yards since the beginning of 2023, and while a new set of hands is pressing the buttons this year, I still expect this to be an efficient offense that supports two pass catchers weekly.

We are assuming that Amon-Ra St. Brown will deliver the fantasy goods weekly, meaning Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams are stuck in an interesting spot. There will be some weeks where all three stars reward you, but the Packers were a top-5 defense in both yards per play and pass EPA, making that a tough sell in the season opener.

I’m inclined to favor Williams over LaPorta in this specific spot, mainly because Green Bay allowed the ninth-highest completion percentage on passes thrown 15+ yards downfield last season. Williams has only faced the Green and Gold twice over the past two seasons, but his seven grabs have totaled 131 yards, and that’s enough upside to buy into this week.

I like him this week, but I believe Williams will be a weekly evaluation that we gain confidence in evaluating as time passes. We will get an answer for how differently this offense functions under John Morton.

Jauan Jennings (at Seahawks)

There aren’t many “ball knower” takes in my work, and that’s by design. I believe that attention to detail on the numbers side of things can tell you everything you need to know, and, if done right, layered with plenty of context to give you a stable foundation without ever having to put your hand in the dirt.

The Jauan Jennings situation, for right now at least, is a ball knower opinion.

Either you think he’s a talented player ready to break out, or you’re approaching him with plenty of caution.

To be honest, I fully understand both sides, and when that is the case, I opt for the cautious approach.

On one hand, those in the corner of Jennings remember the big games from last season. They remember a sharp route runner, combined with play-making, and landing himself on a list like this.

Weeks 10-18: Most games with 7+ catches

• Puka Nacua (7)
• DJ Moore, Ja’Marr Chase, and Trey McBride (6)
• Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jauan Jennings (5)

On the other hand, there’s the “he was a seventh-round pick and the 49ers thought so much of him that they funneled 127 targets across 45 games his way through his first three seasons” angle. The “if they liked him so much, why spend a 2024 first-round pick on Ricky Pearsall” point of view.

As we enter the 2025 season, he is Schrodinger’s receiver, sans Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk (for now). We don’t know if his fantasy stock is alive or dead until we look inside the regular season’s sealed box.

The Seahawks defense doesn’t scare me as much as a healthy Christian McCaffrey does. In the smallest of samples, Jennings (calf injury toward the ned of camp) saw a target on 30.1% of his routes (7.6 aDOT) in his first two games last season with an active CMC and a 23.1% rate (8.9 aDOT) in the previous two.

If the former is what we see in Week 1, he’ll be a strong PPR option for the foreseeable future. But if the target rate dips and the depth of route spikes, this could be a boom-or-bust situation that makes all of us uncomfortable.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. 49ers)

Draft rooms this summer didn’t reflect much optimism surrounding new teammate Cooper Kupp. Still, there is no denying that the former fantasy phenomena’s fit is something that managers holding Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be in tune with.

Kupp has run over 63% of his routes out of the slot in consecutive seasons, and with JSN lining up there 77.4% of the time, there’s undoubtedly a replication of skills worry.

But does it matter? For his career, Smith-Njigba’s efficiency metrics look better when not lined up tight (14% production over expectations and 1,87 fantasy points per target) than when he is placed in the slot (2% and 1.76).

The rising star earned 20 targets (15 catches for 163 yards) in two runs at the 49ers a season ago and should be locked in as the low-end WR1, high-end WR2 that you drafted him to be.

Jayden Higgins (at Rams)

Jayden Higgins is an interesting profile, and you could have talked me into it before the NFL Draft.

There’s still hope, but there is some risk of skill duplication with Nico Collins, and that’s a tough spot to be in. Splash plays will likely occur at points in 2025, though I expect them to be much closer to random than predictable.

My expectations are low for this week, but I’m bullish on this offense. It’s not as if Collins has been the beacon of health in the past. I believe this type of player could work himself into a specific role with time, more so than being a Day 1 producer.

If I’m right and he no-shows this week, keep an eye on the waiver wire. I’m bullish on the C.J. Stroud bounce-back campaign. If we get rookie-season Stroud back in our lives, this offense could breathe life into three pass catchers in addition to the natural contingent value that is at play.

Jayden Reed (vs. Lions)

Jayden Reed was the top-scoring receiver in Week 1 last season and succeeded in this matchup during their first meeting (Week 9: five catches on six targets for 113 yards). If you squint, there’s certainly a case to be made for him to work his way into your flex conversation with time.

He’s the top returning receiver on an offense we want to trust that plays in a division that requires scoring in bunches. From a bird’s-eye view, this is a situation we want to be exposed to.

Drill down further, however, and the bull case needs proof of concept. In comparing Reed’s second season to his first, his on-field target share fell by nearly five percentage points, with most of the dropoff coming inside the 20-yard line (red-zone target rate tanking from 19.2% to 15.6%).

Those trends are concerning at face value, and they only get worse when you factor in the desire to get first-round pick Matthew Golden some looks. I was a fan of Reed at cost during draft season and still believe he can be an asset with time, but as you set your Week 1 lineup, I’m not too tempted to go this direction.

Jaylen Waddle (at Colts)

The Dolphins are going to decide fantasy seasons. The range of outcomes for the four primary pieces is excellent, and if they come through, we will see championship rosters built on the backs of one or two Miami players.

If it goes sideways, those teams will be out of the mix by the holiday season.

I’d love to tell you that I’ll be drilling down and evaluating this team daily, but you don’t need that. If this Miami offense is healthy and functioning, you won’t need my fancy metrics to prove it.

I suspect we will see a strong version of this talented team to open the season. The Colts had the third-worst third-down defense a season ago, with a 44.4% opponent conversion rate (NFL average: 39.7%), and I don’t see them excelling at getting off the field anytime soon.

More importantly, this team is at full strength.

25 career games where Tua Tagovailoa started and Waddle saw 7+ targets

• 19.5 PPG
• 2.6 yards per route
• 16.2% over fantasy expectation

There are moving pieces to consider, but those are annual pieces. I think we know what this offense looks like when functioning at the peak of its powers, and there’s a decent chance that our TVs will be graced with that in Week 1.

Jaylin Noel (at Rams)

In April, Jayden Higgins was picked 45 spots ahead of Jaylin Noel. Given that they shared a college receiver room, it stands to reason that Houston very much prefers Higgins in a vacuum.

And I think I agree in terms of talent.

But this game isn’t a talent evaluation contest. Higgins profiles as the tougher matchup that can be used in more creative ways. That’s great for the Texans, but we are more concerned with proximity to role.

Who has the cleaner path to making a difference?

Higgins’ profile may grade out better, but his targets will likely come at Nico Collins’s expense, while Noel will take food off Christian Kirk’s plate.

To be clear, I don’t think either rookie is an impact player in fantasy circles in the short term, but if I had to bet on developing into a roster-worthy player without the benefit of an injury ahead of them on the depth chart, it’s Noel.

It’s not exciting, but like Higgins, Noel is a player that should be rostered in most formats and counted on in none.

Jerry Jeudy (vs. Bengals)

This is where the depth of the WR position begins to become apparent.

Do I have anything wrong with Jerry Jeudy this week? He’s coming off a career year (90 catches for 1,229 yards) and facing a defense with far more questions than answers (the third-worst red zone unit is just the tip of the iceberg).

I don’t.

And yet, I’m not ranking him as anything more than a mid-level flex that I’m starting if pressed, but in no hurry to do so. As fantasy managers, we have enough scar tissue from this Cleveland franchise that we now assume this offense is pitiful until proven otherwise. Jeudy has some strong traits, but he’s not the most versatile weapon, and the Bengals have the luxury of employing the “anyone else beat us” strategy.

I’m unsure if better times are ahead for the forward thinkers. Since 2010, WRs who saw 100+ targets from a first-year QB averaged 12.6 PPR PPG. That average checked in over 14.5 points for QBs in years 2-3 and approached 16 PPG for Years 4-5. Experience matters, and it’s not like we are dealing with a high-end pedigree the further down this depth chart you venture.

There will be productive weeks in 2025 for Jeudy, but I’ll need to develop some trusting patterns before I make him a consistent part of my lineups.

Jordan Addison (at Bears)

Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games this season (at CHI, vs. ATL, and vs. CIN) due to violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He’s still an appealing option to hold, but he is a significant regression candidate (TD on 8.2% of his career targets) and is missing out on a favorable run to open the season.

On the bright side, it’s doubtful that a receiver will step up in his absence in a way that will impact his season-long projection. You’re looking at a player who could be volatile every week, but as a featured option in a Kevin O’Connell offense, trusting the process is the play.

Josh Downs (vs. Dolphins)

Josh Downs has caught over 68% of his career passes, an impressive accomplishment given that the Colts rank 28th in passer rating and 31st in completion percentage over that stretch.

A hamstring injury cost him time late in the preseason, and that has me taking this as more of a wait-and-see situation. Downs appears to be a talented player in an offense that is begging for someone to earn targets at a high rate, but with just 21 red zone targets (10 catches) in 31 career games, the volume of looks isn’t a “nice to have” as much as it is a “need to have.”

If the Colts are as committed to Daniel Jones as they sound, that’s good news long-term for Downs and gives him a decent chance to be a lineup staple. I’m not banking on him this week. Still, if he can prove his health and a nice connection with Mr. Dimes, he could be in the flex conversation as soon as Week 3 at Tennessee (even if he shows well for himself in Week 1, playing any Indianapolis pass catcher against the Broncos in Week 2 is going to be a tough sell).

To give you hope, the Colts end the fantasy season with consecutive home games in favorable spots (49ers and Jaguars). That’s obviously a value boost at face value, but the impact grows when you consider that, for his career, Downs averages 42.1% more yards per route when playing indoors than out.

Joshua Palmer (vs. Ravens)

Last season, a year in which Josh Allen won the MVP and the Bills led the AFC in scoring, there were only six instances in which a Buffalo receiver not named Khalil Shakir reached 15 PPR points.

That’s not a big number, and the fact that it was split among four players (Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Amari Cooper, and Mack Hollins) speaks to this team’s deprioritization of a singular threat to handle their high-upside targets.

Why would that change in 2025, given the success of this organization during the Allen era?

I don’t think it will, and even if you want to fight me on that point, how sure are you that Joshua Palmer is the primary beneficiary?

I won’t stop you if you want to mark the newest Buffalo WR as a “watch” player in your free agency pool. Do you want to invest in any capacity from the jump? That’s where I have some questions.

Justin Jefferson (at Bears)

I know Aaron Rodgers considers himself a father figure to the Chicago organization. Still, with him no longer in the NFC North, you could certainly argue that his claim of ownership stands to be transferred to Justin Jefferson sooner rather than later.

Minnesota’s WR1 has cleared five targets in six games thus far in his career against the Bears, and the results have been … #good.

• 44 catches
• 620 yards
• 3 touchdowns
• 21.2 FPPG (14.6% over expectations)

We could argue about the hierarchy of the receiver position, but does it matter? You’re playing Jefferson every week in which he is active in any season-long format, and there’s no DFS decision to be made with this being the final game of the week on Monday night.

There’s a broader range of outcomes than we are accustomed to with Jefferson by way of a new quarterback, but that doesn’t mean that there is a discussion to be had regarding his standing as a WR1 in all fantasy formats.

Keenan Allen (vs. Chiefs)

After appearing in 139 games with the Bolts, Keenan Allen took his talents to the Windy City last season. He was a viable fantasy option (five top-15 finishes) just as often as he put you behind the eight-ball (five games during the fantasy season with under seven PPR points).

The now 33-year-old signed on with the Chargers during the first week of August and profiles as a low-reward fantasy option. The good news is that Justin Herbert has completed at least 70% of his passes to the slot in four straight seasons, and that is where Allen has made his bones in the past.

The bad news is that Ladd McConkey might already be better at that spot on the field than Allen ever was and is undoubtedly the superior option in 2025. The bullish case for Allen is that he takes some of the pressure off the second-year receiver and is a player Herbert counts on to move the chains. That could result in some weeks where he racks up the volume, but asking him to do much with it is a dangerous game.

In 2024, Allen averaged 49.6 receiving yards per game, and I don’t think it’s wild to think that carries over. But in an offense that I expect to function slowly and, at times, archaically, there isn’t much scoring upside to chase, and that yardage expectation is probably on the optimistic side.

Roster Allen for now, but I wouldn’t grow too attached to a name that has brought you fantasy goodness in the past.

Keon Coleman (vs. Ravens)

Good players can excel at a high level, while great ones leverage that strength to make them truly unstoppable.

In today’s NBA, 50 guys can knock down spot-up triples at a Steph Curry rate in an empty gym, but how many can do it while being chased by a lanky defender around screens where he’s absorbing contact every step of the way?

Right now, Keon Coleman is the football equivalent of those 50 guys. He can win downfield, but that’s about it, and without a complementary skill, those low percentage targets become even less reliable.

25+ air yard target rate, 2024

• Coleman: 22.8% of targets
• NFL WR Average: 10.6%

If the Bills were confident that they drafted a player poised to win at all levels, would they have brought Amari Cooper on board last season?

If the Bills were confident that they had a player poised to win at all levels after a year of NFL tape, would they have inked Josh Palmer to a three-year deal in March?

I understand wanting cheap exposure to this offense. Heck, I’m no different. But you must approach this season with reasonable expectations and a logical starting point. Coleman is benched until proven starter worthy, not the other way around.

Khalil Shakir (vs. Ravens)

However, the amount of exposure you have to this game isn’t enough.

Fantasy sports can be complicated, but it doesn’t have to be in this spot. The Ravens defense has upside, but, at some level, they are a victim of their own team’s success: no team has seen more passes thrown against them over the past two seasons than Baltimore.

Khalil Shakir has cleared 10 PPR points in 11 of his last 12 games in which the over/under was north of 45 points, reaching 15 points on five occasions. The floor is always elite, and the ceiling is higher this week than most for Buffalo’s slot machine, giving him an easy case for top-20 status to open the season.

Kyle Williams (vs. Raiders)

There’s a lot to like about the situation that Kyle Williams finds himself in, and that’s why you drafted him. He garnered third-round draft capital in April and joins an offense that lacks proven talent at the receiver position and has a franchise quarterback seemingly in place.

I can get behind going this direction. Long-term.

In the short term, your roster will be awfully tough if Williams is on your radar. Yes, I’m playing him over me in my league of “Kyle’s”, but unless you’re in such a league, the pride of Washington State, who had six games with under 60 receiving yards last season, is sitting on your bench until we see some proof of concept at the professional level.

Ladd McConkey (vs. Chiefs)

Ladd McConkey scored in his NFL debut, had his first 100-yard game before October ended, and was considered mainly unrecoverable by Thanksgiving.

Not a bad start to a career, and with the built-in advantage of developing alongside a franchise quarterback, it might be impossible to be too bullish on the long-term trajectory of Los Angeles’ WR1.

The Chiefs have a strong defense that excels in many areas, but does it matter? McConkey posted a 5-67-1 stat line against them last September, earning a pair of end zone targets in the process, one of two such games he posted as a rookie. As good as Kansas City was, they did cough up 15+ PPR points to a WR 15 times in 2024, which should relieve any minor concerns you may have in this spot for a budding star to open the season.

Luther Burden III (vs. Vikings)

I won’t stop you from rostering a player like Luther Burden III in a redraft situation. He’s a talented kid with a pedigree entering an offense looking to develop quickly.

I am, however, going to stop you from, or advise against, giving this rookie a second look when filling out your Week 1 lineup. I’ll happily take him over Ben Johnson’s WR3 in Detroit last season (Kalif Raymond, Tim Patrick, and Allen Robinson at times), but by enough to overcome a system that didn’t have much room for that role?

In 2024, the Lions had two games in which a third receiver didn’t earn a single target, and in 15 of 17 games, that role didn’t reach five targets. Again, I think Burden will clear that level of usage based on raw talent and lesser high-end target earners in front of him, but not by much and not initially.

Burden certainly has contingent value, and the rising tide of this offense could lift his value with time. That’s a fair stance to take, it’s just not one to act on for the season opener.

Malik Nabers (at Commanders)

It’s easy to fall in love with Malik Nabers’s talent, and just as easy to fret about the QB situation that awaits him this season. That said, he spent last season proving to us that the former trumps the latter, and there’s no real reason to think this season will be any different.

During his standout rookie campaign, Nabers earned 29 targets on 55 routes against the Commanders (19 catches for 186 yards and a score). I was taking Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. over him this summer, but don’t take that as me suggesting that you should do anything crazy this week.

Or any week.

Nabers is the real deal and on the short list of receivers that, in four months, could be considered a Tier 1 option at the position. You’re playing him every week. My larger concern for those with Nabers rostered is that his production is somewhat front-loaded this season, particularly during the Russell Wilson era under center.

We can cross that bridge when we get to it. Still, there’s a real chance that Nabers’ name pops up on my sell-high radar in early October, understanding that, if productive, he’ll return a haul in a deal and position you better for when all of the chips are in the middle of the table.

Hollywood Brown (at Chargers)

Hollywood Brown missed 15 games last season and enters this season at less than full strength (ankle). I don’t love his outlook on opening this season, but there’s a straightforward strategy here.

Wait and see.

Realistically, I have next to no expectations here. I was moderately interested when we thought Rashee Rice’s suspension would occur in the middle of the year, operating under the idea that Brown could work his way into a valuable role, but those dreams have been dashed.

Rice is going to miss the first six games this season, four of which come before bye weeks enter the equation. So what’s the win? Brown would have to produce well above expectations for a month before any of us trust him at a level that would elevate him into the flex conversation, and by then, we will be preparing for Rice to return as the WR1 in Kansas City.

Brown deserves to be rostered right now due to the clear path to immediate targets, but the long-term upside is low at best, and more likely nonexistent. Hold him on your bench for September, and if he happens to land a splash play, sell him to the highest bidder.

Easy game.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (at Saints)

My dad used to let me beat him in one-on-one basketball. I’d storm out to a big lead and get confident before he decided to establish his dominance.

He could have crushed my dreams early; the “loss” result wouldn’t have been any different, but he fueled my competitive drive by having his foot off the gas early, and I was better long-term for it.

Do you care about your fantasy analyst’s one-on-one record as a pre-teen against his pops? Probably not. But isn’t that a version of what we saw from Marvin Harrison Jr. last season?

OK, so it’s not the same, but he proved that his skill set had something to offer early, and his professional defenses adapted as the reps wore on.

• First quarter: 4.94 PPG, 52.8% over expectation
• Quarters 2-4: 6.62 PPG, 18.1% below expectation

He excelled on the scripted stuff and struggled to sustain high-end production in his first exposure to playing against grown men. It happens.

As goofy as that stat is, I’m encouraged by it. Arizona didn’t succeed at elevating their franchise receiver for 60 minutes, but there was a definitive pocket where this Kyler Murray/Harrison tandem flashed.

Will he explode in 2025? It’s possible. At the very least, I expect Week 1 to be to 2025 what Quarter 1 was to 2024. The Saints allowed a league-high 26 completions that gained 30+ yards last season (seven touchdowns), and we know that Harrison has explosiveness in his profile.

Harrison’s ADP was 2+ rounds lower this summer than last, and coming out of the season opener, I expect the question, “Did we have his draft day price right last year?” to be a common narrative.

Marvin Mims Jr. (vs. Titans)

Marvin Mims Jr. scored on 11.5% of his targets during a sophomore season that is being coined a breakout of sorts in this Sean Payton system, with Bo Nix serving as the trigger man.

He was a low-volume game-breaker during his time at Oklahoma and, for some reason, the fantasy industry lost its collective mind when he did more of the same at the professional level. The touchdown-driven success last season was fun, but if we trust Payton, don’t we also have to read into the statement he made via playing time?

2024 Broncos, routes per game

• Courtland Sutton: 34.2
• Devuaughn Vele: 24.0
• Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 17.0
• Javonte Williams: 16.7
• Lucas Krull: 16.7
• Troy Frankling: 16.6
• Mims: 11.5

The names have changed a little entering this season. There is more target upside filling both the RB1 and TE1 roles this year than last, making significant growth from Mims awfully hard to feel good about.

We currently look at 4-5 weekly touches with limited scoring equity. There are half a dozen of these high upside WRs whose year-end numbers will be more valuable than he was weekly. A few big weeks and a few more bust weeks: I’ll roll these dice when my roster backs me into a corner, ideally not before then.

Matthew Golden (vs. Lions)

I won’t be surprised if a Packer pass catcher crushes his ADP and is a common name on lists that chart the most common players on fantasy playoff teams.

I also won’t believe you if you can tell me with confidence who that player is right now.

Matthew Golden required first-round draft capital in April after a big season at Texas, a pick that was made with the hope that he’d work his way into the alpha WR1 role, but we are still talking about a sub-6-foot, sub-200-pound rookie with plenty of target competition.

Game count, 7+ target games in 2024

• Romeo Doubs: 4
• Dontayvion Wicks: 3
• Tucker Kraft: 3
• Christian Watson: 2
• Jayden Reed: 1

It’s easy to forget that this Detroit defense was pushing elite status before Aiden Hutchinson’s injury last season, making a flat target distribution plan, like what we’ve seen from Green Bay in the past, a tough sell.

Oh, yeah, and the Packers were a top-5 offense in rush rate over expectation a season ago and will be looking to keep Jared Goff off the field. Golden is a rookie to watch as he piles up the routes; the opportunity is there, but he’s not a day one starter in any fantasy format.

Michael Pittman Jr. (vs. Dolphins)

It’s not you, Michael. It’s us.

By “us,” I mean the fantasy industry. We want your stats to match your talent. The 2020 NFL Draft class at the WR position in Pittman’s range has very much been all or nothing, and we want him to elevate into the former so badly.

Three receivers drafted just ahead of Pittman: Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins

Three receivers drafted just behind Pittman: Laviska Shenault, K.J. Hamler, and Chase Claypool

Pittman is clearly in the middle of those two tiers. Still, we’ve wanted him to at least flirt with that upper level after an impressive 2021 season that saw him average the same number of PPR points as Mike Evans did in his second season and more fantasy points per target than Year 2 Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Since? Over the past three years, we’ve cleared the first three circles of hell. Per one of the greatest unofficial written works of our time, Fantasy’s Inferno:

Circle One (No Grow): The high pedigree player shows signs of plateau

• Pittman saw his yards per catch dip by 24.4% from 2021 to 2023

Circle Two (Miss Trust): Regression signs are in the profile

• Pittman was WR14 in PPG in 2023, but ranked as WR43 in points per target

Circle Three (Loss of Money): Questions of potential begin to be asked

• Pittman had an on-field target share of 28% when Josh Downs was off the field and 20.5% with him involved

Circle Four (In need): We now need help to get our player to the finish line, but we have no signs of it

• Who is the WR1 in this offense? Who is the QB1 in this offense?

The theory of Pittman, who will turn 28 in October, reestablishing himself as not just a flex option but a lineup lock, isn’t dead. However, with three circles behind us, we need some serious proof before trusting any signs of light.

My concerns about this passing game are matchup-proof, until proven otherwise. No, Miami isn’t a scary matchup, and that should tell you all you need to know about just how prohibitive this offense is, with Pittman ranking outside of my top 35 at the position.

Roster and hope is the play, not play and pray.

Mike Evans (at Falcons)

Mike Evans does what Mike Evans does, and that’s put up numbers over the course of a marathon NFL season. You’re well aware that he was drafted the same year Kawhi Leonard led the San Antonio Spurs to an NBA title, and that the following season, when he finished with under 1,000 receiving yards, will be the first.

I caution against unthinkingly assuming he’s a fantasy star in this, his age-32 season (two games with 100 receiving yards last season compared to four with under 45), but my concerns certainly aren’t there this week as a fully healthy asset in a positive offensive environment.

Evans has cleared 60 receiving yards in five of his past six games against the Falcons, scoring five times across those contests. Atlanta is trying to rebuild a broken defense on the fly, and it’s possible they aren’t embarrassingly bad this year, but they were the fifth-worst red zone unit in 2024, and that is the quickest way for Evans to pay the fantasy bills.

If I roster Evans, I’m keeping tabs on his value across the industry. You’re playing him this week and most, but if he begins to push into the “high-end WR2” tier for most, I’ll be looking to cash in.

Nico Collins (at Rams)

Suppose this is your first time reading Kyle Soppe’s content on PFSN, welcome. If not, you’re familiar with my Nico Collins propaganda and might be sick of it.

Do you see the problem here? That’s a thin needle to thread. I need to convince the uninformed why I think we are looking at a 2024 Ja’Marr Chase in Houston clothing, without repeating the arguments that consistent readers have already heard.

How does that work? Collins’ 695-route sample that we have with C.J. Stroud under center is better than you realize and is as good a start to a relationship as any in this league. The Rams were the first defense to allow a receiver to reach 35 PPR points in a game last season (shoutout to Jauan Jennings in Week 3), and I’m not ruling out Collins making them a repeat name on that list.

Buckle up, the Collins SZN is loading.

Pat Bryant (vs. Titans)

Over the past five seasons, once a qualified rookie receiver (minimum eight games), drafted in the third round or later, averaged even 8.5 PPR PPG when playing alongside a quarterback in his first or second season.

Tank Dell in 2023 was the outlier, and he got there on the back of some massive games (three games with over 110 yards and a touchdown) to balance out the duds (under 35 receiving yards in four of 11 games).

That stat is a bit of a mouthful, but it tracks. A bet on Pat Bryant is more of a parlay, as you need him to not only be talented enough to win at the pro level, but you also need him to be a system fit who also meshes well with his developing quarterback.

The idea of Bryant is sound, which is why God created bench space on your roster. He’s a talented kid in an offense I want exposure to, but don’t mistake your four-month projection for Week 1 optimism. This is a wait-and-see situation in which you’re better off being a week or two late rather than early.

Puka Nacua (vs. Texans)

Puka Nacua cleared 17 PPR points in 17 of his 28 games as a pro and looked unguardable for most of that time. When Matthew Stafford announced his intentions to play this season, Nacua was locked into WR1 status for our purposes.

That won’t change soon: if Nacua is active for the Rams, he’s active for you.

That said, there are two sides to this coin. Either you’re amazed by his statistical stability in light of much usage in scoring situations, or you think he will struggle to maintain his elite ranking due to it.

Nacua, 2023-24:

• 3rd in on-field target share
• 7th in receiving yards
• 10th in receptions
• 34th in end zone targets
• 62nd in red-zone target rate

With development, Nacua puts his name on the short list of WRs who can win the receiving triple crown. But if Davante Adams’ savvy in the red zone keeps this area as a point of bother, it will likely be an uphill climb to pay off his ADP from this summer.

I’ll be watching Nacua’s usage inside the opponent’s 20-yard line closely through the first month, as I truly believe, for better or worse, his projectable value will be meaningfully different from the price paid at your draft.

It’s just a matter of whether it’s for better or worse.

Rashee Rice (at Chargers)

Rashee Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of this season for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, which you should be aware of.

Rice showed well physically in camp, and there’s no conversation when he’s back on the active roster. Over his past 13 healthy games, his 17-game pace was 110 catches and eight scores, a line that makes him an unquestioned asset in all formats.

With Travis Kelce at the mercy of Father Time and Xavier Worthy’s role only set to regress, Rice is the pass catcher to trust in this offense when at full strength, and it’s not close in my opinion.

If you roster Rice, you have the opportunity to play him every week. Survive in the short term and thrive in the long term.

If you don’t, I’d suggest actively rooting against the team that does. Not that “rooting” does you any good, but you will want to keep tabs on that team: if that team stubs its toe out of the gates and doesn’t feel as if it can survive the entirety of this suspension, you might be able to buy low on a potential league winner:

Week 12 vs. Colts

• Stat to Track: The second-highest short pass passer rating was allowed in 2024 (only the Patriots were worse)

Week 13 at the Cowboys

• Stat to Track: Highest short completion percentage allowed last season (78.5%, league average: 73.5%)

Week 14 vs. Texans

• Stat to Track: Allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per catch after the reception last season (NFL average: 5.3)

Week 15 vs. Chargers

• Stat to Track: Last season, 50 of Mahomes’ 66 passes thrown against the Chargers traveled less than 10 yards downfield (75.8%, the highest mark of his career against the divisional opponent, career rate before LAC: 65.4%)

Week 16 at Titans

• Stat to Track: Sixth-highest touchdown rate allowed on short passes

Week 17 vs. Broncos

• Stat to Track: Mahomes played against them once last season, and he threw 31 passes no more than five yards downfield, the third highest

Rashid Shaheed (vs. Cardinals)

Last season, it took 10.5 points to be in the mix for a flex spot in a three-WR PPR league. How many times in his three NFL seasons do you think Rashid Shaheed has hit that mark in consecutive weeks?

Twice.

Both instances came last season. I like his film as much as anyone and want to be in on him, but until we see this offense sustain one viable receiver, let alone two, I’m living in a world of doubt.

They have the option of handing the ball to Alvin Kamara, and I’m not sold on him living up to his ADP. Shaheed has NFL-level tools and is proven capable of taking the top off defenses. However, the problem with that skill set is that it is easier to take away when you don’t feel threatened by the offense as a whole.

That’s the case in New Orleans and figures to be so for most, if not all, of the 2025 season.

Rashod Bateman (at Bills)

“Following a breakout season.”

I’ve seen Rashod Bateman profiles tee’d up that way this season, and I understand that his nine touchdowns from last season were good to see, but the man caught 45 passes in 17 games.

He had one game during the fantasy season with more than four receptions.

For me, “breakout” is as much about projection as it is about storytelling. If you believe a player “broke out” the year prior, you’re implying that more goodness is to come, right?

Peak Calvin Johnson scored on 16.2% of his receptions. That was in 2010-11 for one of the best to ever do it. So if you think Bateman can score on 20% of his receptions like he did a year ago, more power to you.

I can’t get there.

Here’s some number-bending for you. Bateman has averaged 2.3 catches per game during the two seasons spent with Todd Monken. That would be a 40-catch projection for the upcoming season if you assume he plays all 17 games.

Recall that Megatron scored on 16.2% of his receptions during that peak stretch, and if we give Bateman that exact rate from the beginning of last season through this year, with our 40-grab number penciled in, we’d be looking at 4-5 touchdown receptions.

That stat line looks like Michael Wilson or Allen Lazard from a season ago.

I’m not comfortable counting out anyone in this Monken machine, but that doesn’t mean I’m the least comfortable projecting Bateman into my starting lineup.

Ricky Pearsall (at Seahawks)

Ricky Pearsall is checking a lot of boxes entering this season. He carries with him first-round draft capital, plays in an offense with plenty of vacant targets, and showed well when given the opportunity as a rookie (14.9 PPR PPG last season in his six highest route run games).

Oh, and he carried over those good vibes into this preseason.

I’m in.

I don’t know for sure which receiver will lead this team in targets while Brandon Aiyuk is on the shelf, but do I need to? Pearsall and Jauan Jennings figure to split 12-14 targets every week, and given Brock Purdy’s efficiency, that’s enough to have me interested in a flex-type way.

The Seahawks have ranked outside the top 20 in blitz rate over the past four seasons, which means Purdy is likely to have the defense in front of him with the ability to execute the game plan on time. With that assumption in my back pocket, I’m comfortable flexing both viable 49er receivers this week while chasing an elevated floor.

Rome Odunze (vs. Vikings)

Rome Odunze is one of those players who is so trendy that it makes you want to push back. Fading the public is something I’m essentially on board with, but I can’t hear.

In a season of disarray with a rookie quarterback, he posted the same fantasy points per catch average as Xavier Worthy. He wasn’t far behind the Kansas City speedster regarding yards per route.

The argument for Odunze isn’t standing on what he did last season, but rather on what is possible this year. Caleb Williams is naturally going to be more comfortable with the speed of the professional game, and Ben Johnson’s impact can’t be overstated.

Odunze was efficient on those quick-hitting routes as a rookie (31 catches on 41 targets that traveled less than 10 yards down the field), a skill I expect to be on display against the ultra-aggressive Vikings.

We are looking at a receiver who is in the flex conversation. I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to play either 49er receiver over him or felt safer in the skill set of a Jakobi Meyers type to open the season. That said, I have Odunze much closer to WR1 in this offense than WR3, and I expect this team to take a step forward sooner rather than later.

Romeo Doubs (vs. Lions)

The idea of Romeo Doubs is exciting, but the real-life version has been anything but, and is trending in the wrong direction, with Matthew Golden brought in as the hypothetical solution to Green Bay’s search for a traditional WR1.

Doubs is an athletic 6’2” 25-year-old who has had his chances to succeed. Sure, he’s scored on 15 of his 147 career receptions, a completely viable rate if he had proven the ability to earn looks consistently, but that hasn’t been the case.

Doubs’ next 100-yard game will be his first as a pro, and he’s been held to single-digit fantasy points in 58.1% of his career games. Be my guest if you want to roster Doubs as we try to pin the tail on the top Packer WR1 for the fourth straight season.

You cannot feel good about playing right now, and it will take a few games of consistent volume to convince me otherwise.

Stefon Diggs (vs. Raiders)

Stefon Diggs’ aDOT has dipped from 11.9 yards in 2022 to 10.8 in 2023 and 8.3 in 2024. That’s not rare regarding how a skill set fits the age curve at the receiver position, but it is concerning.

DeMario Douglas is the designated short-area winner with a feel for this offense, and Drake Maye was the 23rd-ranked passer on short throws as a rookie. For Diggs to succeed at a usable level, he either needs to reverse the course of Father Time and ramp up his aDOT or co-exists with Douglas as a chain mover in an offense with a QB who has yet to show he can expose defenses on those quick routes.

Thanks, but no thanks.

The Raiders had the eighth-highest opponent pass TD rate last season (5.2% of attempts). If my fade on Diggs is going to be wrong, it could be obvious as soon as Week 1, but I’m comfortable in taking my chances in betting against a 31-year-old WR who is on his third team in as many years and didn’t exactly have a clean offseason.

Tee Higgins (at Browns)

Tee Higgins has out-earned Ja’Marr Chase for periods, and that’s not even the most impressive part of his profile for me. Despite several moving pieces over his five seasons in the NFL, he’s finished ahead of expectations in terms of productivity relative to target diet in every campaign.

Yes, last season was probably the best season of his career. He averaged 18.5 PPG (more than CeeDee Lamb), had more air yards in fewer games than A.J. Brown, and led the Bengals in percentage of red zone routes in which he saw a target.

Yes, ahead of Chase.

Higgins reached a dozen PPR points in 75% of his games in 2024, and I expect him to open one-for-one in 2025 against an aggressive Cleveland defense (he’s increased his fantasy points per pressured catch in consecutive seasons).

Higgins can be an underdog and lead his team in receiving production while being nothing short of a lineup lock. You knew that when you drafted him, and that will not change, no matter the matchup.

Terry McLaurin (vs. Giants)

Terry McLaurin established himself as Jayden Daniels’ most trusted weapon last season, and I very much expect that to carry over into 2025. That said, the Giants did a good job holding him in check when it comes to yardage (eight catches for just 41 yards across their two matchups a year ago), and there could be game script concerns should the home team establish control off the jump.

McLaurin had a 35+ yard reception in all three playoff games, and while he didn’t post any big plays against the G-Men last season, New York did finish 2024 as the fourth worst per pass defense, not to mention the very worst in the league in terms of yards allowed per deep pass.

No one expects McLaurin to repeat his 13 touchdowns from a season ago. Still, when you fold in his increased scoring equity with the defensive holes in this matchup, there are too many paths for Washington’s WR1 to finish as a top-20 producer at the position this week to do anything besides play him wherever you have him with confidence.

Tetairoa McMillan (at Jaguars)

This is a bit of a tricky situation to handicap with confidence. Tetairoa McMillan is a high-pedigree receiver joining an offense that showed signs of life down the stretch of last season.

That’s great to see and fueled his status as a locked-in WR3 this draft season. This is a matchup against a defense that, last season, was second-worst per our Defense+ grading and posted the third-lowest interception rate in the league.

We are discussing a receiver that, on paper, shares plenty of traits with Nico Collins. We are looking at a legit star in this league with time. I’m just not sure how much consistency we’ll see to open 2025. Last season, it took roughly 13 PPR points to finish as a top-30 receiver, and over the past 20 years, only four receivers have hit that number in this particular situation:

• Week 1
• First-round rookie
• QB in one of his first three seasons

Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Marquise Brown were the four to hit that threshold, while stars like A.J. Green, Jerry Jeudy, and Amari Cooper failed to do so. I’m fine with starting McMillan this week in redraft, especially in this matchup and on the heels of the Adam Thielen trade, but he’s far from a lineup lock.

Travis Hunter (vs. Panthers)

What the Jags love about Travis Hunter is what we hate. His ability to be used on both sides of the ball will be a projection hurdle that might smooth out in time. Still, given Jacksonville’s score/situation, it is also at risk of evolving within individual games.

But you knew that when you drafted Hunter and were willing to overlook it for the rare ability. I don’t blame you, and this is about as good a spot as you could ask for to make a splash in a professional debut.

Over the past two seasons, twice have we seen a defense blitz over 30% of the time and create pressure on under 30% of opponent dropbacks

• 2023 Panthers: 29.3% pressure rate and 32.9% blitz rate
• 2024 Panthers: 25.1% pressure rate and 30.1% blitz rate

Trevor Lawrence figures to have his time to throw, and the Panthers will likely shade coverage in the direction of Brian Thomas Jr. because … well, they watched football with the rest of us last season.

If I’m starting a rookie receiver to open this season, it’s Hunter over Tetairoa McMillan (also in this game) because I trust the infrastructure around him just a touch more. Both first-year wideouts are on the WR3/flex radar and carry plenty of potential into their professional debuts.

Maybe both go off, and this game shoots out significantly?

I think that’s within the range of outcomes. Keep in mind, however, that if that occurs, I will preach to sell high on both, barring something significant happening that changes my thought process: you don’t get ideal conditions and a soft matchup every week in the NFL.

Tyreek Hill (at Colts)

This has been a noisy offseason for Tyreek Hill. He’s been the topic of trade speculation, has volunteered play-calling advice, and missed some reps with a nagging injury.

It hasn’t been clean, but when they put the ball in play, with a healthy Tagovailoa on a fast track against a shaky defense, you really don’t have a decision to make.

Here are the career instances in which Hill has been on the field for most of his team’s offensive snaps in the season opener.

• 2024: 7 catches for 130 yards and a TD (26 PPR points)
• 2023: 11 catches for 215 yards and 2 TD (44.5)
• 2022: 8 catches for 94 yards (18.0)
• 2021: 11 catches for 197 yards (37.1)
• 2020: 5 catches for 46 yards and a TD (15.6)
• 2018: 7 catches for 169 yards and 2 TD (42.3)
• 2017: 7 catches for 133 yards and a TD (26.8)

If you drafted Hill this summer, you’re taking the optimistic approach. We could be dealing with some serious confirmation bias, given a vintage performance in this spot.

Wan’Dale Robinson (at Commanders)

Wan’Dale Robinson was WR11 last season in terms of PPG on short passes (9.1, ahead of names you know like CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, and Brian Thomas Jr.), and the preseason usage of Jaxson Dart suggests that he’ll be relying on his teammates to rack up the YAC whenever he gets the chance.

This is more of a long-term sales pitch on Robinson than a short-term one. You’re probably unable to play a slot merchant when your roster is at full strength, but rostering a high-floor player like this is good.

If you want to get cute in DFS, Robinson makes for an interesting click at a low ownership number. Washington blitzed at the sixth highest rate last season (32% of opponent dropbacks), so if there is ever going to be a spot where this offense features the short passing game, this could well be the spot (he did score against them last season and had a pair of double digit catch efforts – it’s not flashy upside, but if they chose to highlight his role, there’s a chance to mine some cheap value).

Xavier Legette (at Jaguars)

Xavier Legette was the last pick of the first round in 2024, and while he offered more fun soundbites than usable weeks (16 games: 49 catches for 497 yards and four scores), there’s enough upside to chase for him to be stashed right now.

We all seem to agree that Bryce Young will be able to build on the development we saw late last season, and if that’s going to happen, multiple pass catchers will likely come along for the ride.

Jalen Coker is my favorite breakout flavor in Carolina, but a quad injury last week landed him on IR, which means that Legette’s path is clear now that Adam Thielen is back in Minnesota. Last season, when Legette played 60% of the offensive snaps, he was targeted on 20.6% of his routes, a rate that would have put him in the Darnell Mooney range.

Money had a big 2024 (64-992-5), and while I’m not projecting that type of final line for Legette, I’m not ruling it out. He checks in just inside my top 50 at the position for this week. You’re not playing him, but I do think he should be stashed for free now before his stock rises on Sunday.

Xavier Worthy (at Chargers)

You drafted Worthy as a starter this summer and potentially paid a premium later.

You like him. You’re buying what you saw late in his rookie season, and I’m not here to talk you off of your optimism.

Not this week at least: he’s a top-24 receiver for me and should be started across the board.

That said, the market was well ahead of me all offseason, and with Rashee Rice now slated to be on the field for the second half of the fantasy season, and his suspension being levied for the first six weeks, I’m going to continue to be a wet blanket.

• Stat 1: Ranked between Justin Jefferson and Mike Evans
• Stat 2: Ranked between Parker Washington and the now-retired Mike Williams

Given his profile coming out of Texas, it wouldn’t have shocked you if I told you 12 months ago that Worthy ranked among the best in one stat and the worst in another.

But would I present those figures in that fashion if the stats fit your prior assumptions?

The first stat is fantasy points per game scored on short passes (under 10 air yards), while the second is fantasy points scored on deep passes (15+ air yards).

Yes, you read that right. I didn’t flip the stats. Worthy, with Rice sidelined plenty, was effective on short passes. Andy Reid weaponized his speed horizontally in creative ways, which helped him approach 100 targets and score six times as a rookie.

It was great to see. He earned 31 targets over the final three weeks of the fantasy season and turned 21 targets into 19 catches, 287 yards, and three touchdowns during the playoff run. There certainly is something here, but I’d caution against overrating his 2024 box score regarding 2025 decision-making with Rice on the field.

Those short looks were Worthy’s to lose last year, but that’s unlikely to be the case in the short term. The NFL has made it clear that they are all-in on forcing this Chiefs offense to kill them with paper cuts, thus creating a decline in lay-up targets, which could result in a severe fantasy falloff.

Worthy averaged 27 receiving yards per game in Weeks 1-3 with Rice, a sample too small to extrapolate meaningfully, but a cautionary number at the very least. In this spot against what I project to be a slow-moving offense and a stout defense that saw him twice last season, I’m not overly confident that Worthy gives you the type of day that his ADP suggests you’re expecting. If you drafted well, you might have a flex option I prefer to a player you took in the fifth round.

This is a weekly game, don’t forget that. Worthy will have his moments, and maybe he can complement Rice, but we know where Rice wins and how defenses approach the Patrick Mahomes puzzle.

Zay Flowers (at Bills)

Fun fact: 51 players have had a double-digit reception game since the start of 2023.

Less fun fact: Zay Flowers isn’t one of them.

Now, 10 receptions is a huge day and can never be projected. Still, the fact that Flowers, as a shorter-yarded receiver, has graded as elite in both of his seasons in a defense, isn’t on that list, speaks to the fantasy limitations of this system.

For his career, Flowers averages 4.6 catches and 58.1 receiving yards per game. That’s not bad, and if he can carve out a more valuable role in scoring situations (four of his nine career TD catches came in a five-game stretch as a rookie), he’ll be a lineup staple.

For now, he’s on the fringes. I have him ranked as a viable flex play in all formats because of the high projected total for this game. The floor is high enough for me to feel good about supplementing the limited upside elsewhere on my roster in most situations.

Buffalo has followed the NFL trend of umbrella coverage schemes that contain deep passes, a strategy that could/should result in Flowers catching at least a handful of balls, thus making him lineup-worthy in the most anticipated game of the opening week.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Tight Ends: Brock Bowers (at Patriots)

My wife says I play the Devil’s Advocate side too often.

I disagree with her on that point and argue against it weekly.

So yeah, maybe she’s right.

Every fiber in my being wants to build an iron-clad case against Brock Bowers this season. I’m sure he’s a lovely person and a helluva football player, but there has to be some regression to be assumed after a historic rookie campaign, right?

Maybe, if I pick up enough rocks, I can stumble upon a tie to Kyle Pitts and warn you guys about the headache that is about to come for half a decade (and counting) as a result of an excellent first impression. Maybe the NFL will catch up to what the former Bulldog does well, and his production will fall flat now that high-end expectations are being heaped upon him.

Or maybe not.

The Raiders upgraded at the quarterback position and should be in a better overall offensive environment with Ashton Jeanty, who has the potential to give them a level of balance that wasn’t on the Bingo card last season.

In Week 1, Vegas faces a New England defense that saw opposing TEs post the third-highest average target depth and the eighth-worst red zone defense. This week, as will be the case most weeks, Bowers could catch 10 balls, break the slate with a single catch, or find the end zone.

There are too many ways for him to win and take the opposite side of any Bowers’ argument. Go for it if you want to build DFS lineups elsewhere due to price flexibility. I’ve learned my lesson in that regard during golf season, as I’ve been fading Scottie Scheffler for 20 months and burning entries as a result.

Cade Otton (at Falcons)

In the financial world, it’s a Ponzi scheme.

In the weight loss world, it’s dehydration.

I’m not going to say that in the fantasy football world, it’s Cade Otton, but I’m not going to deny such a train of thought.

I’m as guilty as anyone in highlighting volume, saying things like “the best way to not score fantasy points is to not see the field”. And that’s true, you can’t score fantasy points from the sidelines, but that doesn’t mean the inverse is true 100% of the time.

That is, simply being on the field doesn’t make you a fantasy asset; it merely increases your odds of being labeled as such. Travis Kelce, Tyler Conklin, and Cade Otton are the only tight ends to run 450 routes in each of the past three seasons, a list that alone gives you an idea of what I’m talking about.

Not all routes are created equal.

Despite all those routes, did you know that Otton has never cleared 100 receiving yards in a game? How about the fact that he’s managed two or fewer receptions for most of his games as a pro?

Getting your hands on the Buccaneers isn’t a bad move, and, for the most part, if you have someone from this offense, you’re playing them in a spot like this. But Otton doesn’t rank as a TE1 this week for me and won’t approach that territory until I see sustained change in how he is deployed, something I’m not overly optimistic about happening in 2025 due to the surrounding talent.

Before I step off this soapbox, Otton also has leg and hamstring issues.

OK, I’m done now.

Chig Okonkwo (at Broncos)

There are three tight ends in the first half of their career who have 50 catches on a 70% catch rate in the past two seasons: Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, and Chig Okonkwo.

We are talking about a rare athlete at the position that now has some actual upside in terms of the man tasked with getting him the football. It wouldn’t shock me if we highlight Okonkwo as a great free agent add by the end of the month or as a viable DFS punt play.
Patience.

At this point, there’s no reason to target uncertainty at this level when setting your lineup. Okonkwo could enter the top-12 conversation with time if he shows a connection with Cam Ward, but that’s something I need to see first.

Cole Kmet (vs. Vikings)

Let’s say you’re a doctor. You were brought in during the pandemic times and didn’t fail. You weren’t Dr. House, but you cured some people, developed, and did your job.

Great.

You noticed in recent years that the hospital has been actively trying to improve. They brought in some new nurses and splurged on some new equipment. The company’s leadership changed hands, and the future looks as bright as it ever has — brighter than any of your five years and brighter than before your time.

That visionary decided to bring in a hotshot second doctor. This is new. This used to be your show, but now it’s not. This new Doc came from a respected Big 10 school, has new ideas, and is viewed as a visionary. You’re far from old, but … the writing is on the wall.
Are you betting on your new situation? Are you now considering starting a family or buying a new house there?

If not, you’re not counting on Cole Kmet in any sort of meaningful way this season. If so, you’ve got more important articles to read than one about fake football.

Colston Loveland (vs. Vikings)

Tight end advice is tricky. You likely only have one, so it’s not as if you are tasked with a lineup decision, and in this instance, we are talking about a Monday Nighter, so Colston Loveland isn’t on the main slate for DFS players.

That said, I’m leaning in the conservative direction and ranking him outside of my top-10 at the position for his NFL debut. Sam LaPorta (Week 1: 39 yards) and Brock Bowers (held without a TD in September) have changed the way we think about rookie tight ends, even though they weren’t superstars initially.

Those two combined physical tools with usage and an accelerated learning curve. I don’t think Loveland will be on that level due to the upside around him, but I think he’ll progress as the season goes and crack my top-10 regularly as we get into the meat of the schedule.

Dallas Goedert (vs. Cowboys)

Last season, 34.3% of Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards came in an explosion spot against the Saints.

That’s a little deceiving because he missed seven games, but the point remains that he helped you one week and was more risk than reward the rest of the way. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are clearly more dangerous on a per-target basis, and I have concerns about them every week due to the structure of this offense, making Goedert somewhat of a no-go zone for me.

That said, if you’re chasing a name you know with Goedert, there’s a chance you get away with it in the season opener. The Cowboys were historically bad when opponents got inside the 20-yard line (75% TD rate, no other defense was within six percentage points of them).
This is a name you know, and it can potentially lead to lost scoring equity. If the target count isn’t better this year than last, cutting bait with Goedert to stream the position is well within the range of outcomes.

Dalton Kincaid (vs. Ravens)

Let’s call this what it is: chasing an offense.

Dalton Kincaid didn’t reach 55 receiving yards in a game last season, scored once after September ended, and earned all of six targets across Buffalo’s final two playoff games, where they had every bit of motivation to load up their most trusted options with work.

For the record, I don’t hate the cheap exposure to a unit we expect to rank in the top 5 in scoring; you need to acknowledge that is what you’re doing. Kincaid was a TE1 three times in four weeks, roughly 11 months ago (Weeks 3-6), but those were his only such finishes for the season.

The Bills need a pass catcher to step up this season. Maybe it’s Keon Coleman. Maybe it’s Josh Palmer. Maybe it’s Kincaid.

The fact that we have three players vying for a role that has marginal upside tells you all you need to know. I’m not going to be excited about playing any of the non-Khalil Shakir pass catchers in Buffalo until someone separates themself from the pack.

If someone separates themself from the pack.

Dalton Schultz (at Rams)

There is nothing fun about Dalton Schultz. The thought process that would land someone wanting to bet on the veteran TE is almost entirely driven by the potential of this passing game to return to rookie C.J. Stroud levels of impact, and that’s fine.

In fact, I actually think it might be right.

But I need to see some proof of concept before betting on it early in the year. During the first month of the season, you have access to every team in the NFL and almost every player on those teams: bye weeks don’t come around until Week 5, and injuries pile up as the season progresses, not so much in September.

Schultz is a player you have written down on the notepad that sits on your nightstand.
Maybe that’s just me, given my job, but you get the larger point.

For now, Schultz is a name to watch, not one to play. This is the eighth season of his career, and one-third of his scores came in the 2021 breakout with the Cowboys. Nico Collins will be a target vacuum, and the young receivers will get every chance to prove their worth in the early going. It’s possible that, by Halloween, we are seeing Schultz earn 5-7 targets per game and emerge as a weekly streaming option.

I’m not opening the season with that projection.

David Njoku (vs. Bengals)

David Njoku was a first-round pick in 2017 and has begun to round into form for our purposes. Over the past two seasons, he ranks as TE4 (minimum 20 games played) in terms of PPR points per game and posted five top-5 finishes during his 11 games in 2024.
There’s a lot to like in the player. There might be more to hate about the situation around him.

But is that new?

As mentioned, he was drafted in 2017, the same year that Mike Williams entered the league—the recently retired Mike Williams. Njoku isn’t a new commodity in the NFL, and yet, he hasn’t had 100 regular-season catches from a single quarterback during his professional tenure.

Think about that.

His debut came before Black Panther hit theatres, and not a single quarterback has hooked up with him 100 times in the regular season throughout his career (for reference, Patrick Mahomes has hit Travis Kelce 100+ times in three separate regular seasons).

He’s had questions under center for his entire career, so I’m more willing to think he can overcome this year and churn out another productive season than not. The Bengals were the seventh-worst scoring defense in 2024, allowing the eighth most yards. This is a profile and a matchup, in my opinion, that do more to prop up his fantasy stock this week than the mess at QB does to tear it down.

Evan Engram (vs. Titans)

I was bullish on Evan Engram entering this season, and I see no reason to change my stance against a Titans defense that allowed a touchdown on 5.7% of pass attempts last season, the third-highest rate in the league.

It’s not as if Engram is unfamiliar with this defense after sharing a division with them over the past three seasons, and I think Sean Payton acquired him with a particular role in mind. There still may be some growing pains for Bo Nix as the league reacts to having a year’s worth of film, but I fully expect Engram to be used in a fantasy-friendly way that comes preloaded with a near double-digit PPR-point floor.

The Devaughn Vele trade in the middle of August didn’t directly move the fantasy needle for most, but the departure of a high slot usage player from this Denver offense stands to raise the floor of Engram in a meaningful way. Those targets aren’t the most exciting, but they are highly efficient, and that’s all we can ask for from any TE sitting outside of the top tier.

Could Engram sneakily threaten that top tier when all is said and done this winter?

George Kittle (at Seahawks)

There have been four 1,000-yard seasons from the TE position over the past two years, and George Kittle has two of them (Brock Bowers and Trey McBride have the others). With at least 60 catches and six scores in the past four seasons, San Francisco’s star is about as close as we get to inevitable in this game.

Even last season, a year that he was 31 years of age for the majority of, and everything with the 49ers seemed to fall apart in one way or another, he had you covered in the beginning (TD in four straight games to bridge September and October) and the end (consecutive games with over 100 receiving yards in December).

Isaiah Likely had 24 more receiving yards in his season opener last season than Kittle in his past three season debuts combined. I like to highlight variance because it’s a big part of staying level-headed and thus being successful over the course of the marathon, which is the NFL season. Playing Kittle every week in which he suits up isn’t just the logical play; it’s the only play.

Isaiah Likely (at Bills)

Isaiah Likely underwent surgery in July on a broken foot bone, resulting in no real ramping-up period for the season. At this moment, his status for Week 1 is unclear, but with all 32 teams in action this week, why would you roll the dice on a player whose role isn’t 100% clear even when 100% healthy?

A player like Likely is the difference between shallow and deep leagues. I have no patience for an injured asset entering the season unless you have access to an IR slot for him. If that’s the case, you have nothing to lose. If not, what do you have to gain?

In deep leagues, however, Likely is close to a must-stash. He posted a 39.5% snap share in 2022, earned a promotion to 43.9% in 2023, and saw it spike to 60.3% in Year 3. He’s an impactful talent in an explosive offense, and that’s a profile that I don’t mind stashing over a WR7 type that I see so many deeper league rosters sit on.

If your WR7 is hitting your lineup, your ship has already sunk. At the tight end position, a player like Likely can bust into the TE1 conversation without outlier production, and that is why I want exposure to him.

That said, he’s reached double-digit PPR points just twice in his career when not playing at least half of the offensive snaps. There’s more risk than reward for a profile like that on a team that has an eye on the big picture at all times (68 wins since the beginning of 2019, the third most in the league), but there is also long-term appeal to a young player whose talent is obvious.

Stash if you have the room, and if you don’t have the space right now, don’t be shy about pouncing when we see signs of full health.

Jake Ferguson (at Eagles)

The tricky part about advising when it comes to the TE position in September is that there is no real advising when it comes to the TE position in September.

That’s not meant to undercut those of us trying to do so, but the truth is that it doesn’t largely matter outside of DFS conversations, and with this being an island game, even the value in that regard is limited.

Why? Odds are good that you didn’t draft multiple tight ends, so if you roster Ferguson, you’re likely playing him this week no matter the statistical vodo I work.
Ferguson turned his seven catches into 42 touchdownless yards against the Birds last season. In fact, he was scoreless for the entire season and has found paydirt just seven times in 47 career games (210 targets).

That’s not a great elevator pitch from me; our X account did that after he inked his extension in late July.

Ferguson’s target share and slot usage have increased each season when Dak Prescott is on the field.

With George Pickens increasing the deep-strike potential of this offense, Ferguson’s role could hold more value on this pass-first unit. https://t.co/1ABlcigOfY

— PFSN (@PFSN365) July 27, 2025

Ferguson turned his seven catches into 42 touchdownless yards against the Birds last season. In fact, he was scoreless for the entire season and has found paydirt just seven times in 47 career games (210 targets).

That’s not a great elevator pitch from me; our X account did that after he inked his extension in late July.

Ferguson is part of a monstrous tier at the position, and if you invested in him coming out of your draft, you’re holding through the first few weeks at the very least. George Pickens’ role will need to be ironed out, and with him threatening defenses down the field, Ferguson has the potential to develop into a high-volume, low-risk asset.

The Cowboys face the Giants and Bears in Weeks 2-3, spots where you’d expect them to outscore on the board and thus elevate the standing of their starting tight end. You’re unlikely to get off to a big start in your Week 1 matchup on opening night because Ferguson goes crazy, but I’ll green-light playing him in deeper-than-average PPR leagues.

Ja’Tavion Sanders (at Jaguars)

Due to quotes this summer, some of the value has been sucked out of Isiah Likely’s athletic profile, which is tempting for fantasy managers and NFL coaches alike.
I like Likely as much as anyone, but you can no longer jump on the bandwagon; the secret is out. Next up is Ja’Tavion Sanders.

Sanders holds the same fourth-round draft capital that Likely does, and he doesn’t have as much target red tape to navigate to be relevant in our game. He scored or earned 5+ targets in three of four games as a rookie, in which he ran 25 routes, giving us a taste of what could be possible in the not-so-distant future.

The Sanders play is a parlay, and you don’t need to bet just yet. You don’t just need Sanders to be ready to leap; you need the Panthers to be willing to unleash him and for Bryce Young to prove himself as an above-average signal caller.

There’s a world in which I’m willing to invest in that chain of events, but I need some 2025 data points first. Carolina faces the Saints, Bucs, and Seahawks in the final three weeks of the fantasy season. If Sanders establishes himself as a valuable part of this offense, sans Adam Thielen (August 27th trade), he could be a common piece on fantasy teams that peak when your championship is being handed out.

Jonnu Smith (at Jets)

I think it’s fair to assume that Aaron Rodgers played a large role in the Steelers acquiring Jonnu Smith this summer. In an offense that lacks a secondary pass catcher, he could well repeat his career year with the Dolphins.

Smith is entering his age-30 season, and that’s concerning. This offense is likely to play slow and funnel-throw DK Metcalf when in scoring position. I’m not sold on Smith as a viable weekly option, but I do have him ranked ahead of the true waiver wire dart throws.
If you have Smith, you’re playing him this week and seeing what the usage looks like.

You’re also evaluating whether Rodgers looks like the type of quarterback who can support two pass catchers weekly and checking on the snap/route split at the TE position.
I’m more bullish than bearish on Smith, but I would have also said that last season.

Kyle Pitts (vs. Buccaneers)

If I had a penny for every time I felt let down by Kyle Pitts, I’d have more change than he has career touchdowns.

You know the story. He racked up over 1,000 yards as a rookie with an elite profile and first-round draft capital, only to struggle to build on that success and repeat it.

His next Week 1 game with 45+ receiving yards will be his first, and, at this point, I think counting on anything close to consistent production is borderline crazy (Weeks 5-6 of 2023 were the last time he finished consecutive games better than TE10).

That said, if there were ever a week where it seemed like the stars aligned, this would be it. In 2024, Pitts had three finishes better than TE10.

• Week 1 vs PIT: TE4 (11.6 points)
• Week 5 vs TB: TE6 (15.8 points)
• Week 8: at TB TE2 (25.1 points)

This game is projected to be a high-scoring one, and if you’re choosing between Tier 3 tight ends to gamble on, the upside case for Pitts is as good as anyone.

If you have Pitts, you’re likely playing him, and that’s fine. There isn’t much of a decision to be made on that front (ideally, you don’t roster multiple TEs in a standard league), but mentally prepare yourself for the devil/angel situation that appears inevitable this time next week when you’re tempted to sell yourself on THIS being the season.

Mark Andrews (at Bills)

You drafted Andrews to play him, understanding that there are scoring limitations based on the roster construction and, in time, role issues should Isaiah Likely truly see his role expanded. I think you’re safe in doing just that in this spot.

During the playoff loss, Andrews earned seven targets on 27 routes against these Bills (five catches for 61 yards). That was a nice production that is easy to forget given how that game ended (a late fumble and a dropped two-point conversion).

We haven’t seen Andrews come out of the gates in strong fantasy form lately (86 receiving yards on his 107 routes in his last three Week 1 games), but I’d read that more as a coincidence than anything. The veteran tight end might not be why you win your first matchup of the season, though I don’t think he’ll be why you lose it.

Mike Gesicki (at Browns)

Since 2019, only Travis Kelce and Evan Engram have run more routes at the tight end position than the now well-compensated Mike Gesicki.

Since 2019, 14 tight ends have more double-digit PPR-point games than the now well-compensated Mike Gesicki.

It’s fun to root for a player, be it DFS or otherwise, that is always on the field, but doesn’t that make the lack of production that much more taxing mentally? To see #88 on the field, but seemingly afflicted with an allergy to the ball?

If you’ve never done the Gesicki sweat thing, I promise you, it does.

There will be a time and place to pluck Cincy’s tight end off the free agent pool and plug him in. Maybe you’re going through injuries, in a tough bye week spot, or going for broke with no worries about a production floor.

That time and place is not the first week of the season, with every team in action and everyone in reasonable health, not to mention Noah Fant being in the mix after signing in late July.

Pat Freiermuth (at Jets)

Pat Freiermuth has been a reliable option in Pittsburgh. Still, when the team brings in a QB in his final season and then happens to trade for a more explosive option at the tight end position, things aren’t looking up for the former Nittany Lion.

Keep tabs here, but there’s nothing actionable about Freiermuth. You’re not playing him in Week 1, and nothing that happens in the opener will elevate his status massively.

We can talk if we reach the end of September, and it’s clearly Freiermuth over Jonnu Smith. Still, I don’t expect that to be the case regarding fantasy opportunities, and I’m OK with being late to that party should the early-season trends point in that direction.

Sam LaPorta (at Packers)

Sam LaPorta saw some fantasy regression in his second season after standing out as a rookie, but not all steps backwards look the same, and I’d argue that 2024 was more a lateral move than anything for the pride of Iowa.

In 2024, his PPR PPG dipped by 22.5%, but his points scored per target actually ticked up by 5.5%. We are, of course, in a volume-driven world, and I need to see LaPorta return to his target earning ways before considering him a real threat to be a Tier 1 producer at the position.

LaPorta lost enough around the fringes in all the small areas by just enough to impact his bottom line meaningfully. That’s not ideal. It wasn’t enough to stop me from drafting him this summer or starting him in Week 1.

He’s earned at least five targets in three of four career games against the Packers and has been heavily involved in the opening script (across those contests, 53% of his yardage has come in the first 15 minutes). Ben Johnson is gone, but I think his prioritization of LaPorta in this matchup is here to stay.

You drafted LaPorta to bounce back from an underwhelming 2024 and to start for you every week: I see no reason to move off of that train of thought in Week 1.

T.J. Hockenson (at Bears)

Last season was anything but fun for managers with T.J. Hockenson. Not only did he miss seven games, but he was largely MIA when on the field, failing to score a single touchdown and recording his lowest on-field target share since his rookie campaign with the Lions.

It happens.

The team experimented with running him downfield more often (his aDOT jumped 21.1% from his 2023 rate), and it didn’t work. But maybe it laid the foundation for what Kevin O’Connell has in store for this JJ McCarthy-led offense?

If so, it won’t take long to see it pay off. On passes thrown 10+ yards downfield, the Bears allowed the second-most yards per attempt, and Hockenson played into those struggles by racking up 12 catches in 166 yards in their two meetings last season.

This offense clearly has a significant moving piece, which introduces a low floor until we know otherwise, but Hockenson’s role seems stable. You should be comfortable locking him into your lineup across all formats.

After a month of data points, we will have a better feel for this team as a whole, but I think it’s more likely that Hockenson jumps up a tier from where you drafted him than fails to pay off his price tag.

Terrance Ferguson (vs. Texans)

Tyler Higbee tore his ACL/MCL late in 2023, but he was active at the end of last season and currently sits atop the Los Angeles TE depth chart.

He’ll probably be the first tight end on this roster to earn a target this season, but we are talking about a 32-year-old who has never reached 750 receiving yards or six touchdowns in a season.

Terrance Ferguson (a second-round pick out of Oregon who scored on 11.9% of his collegiate receptions) brings more explosive tools to the table for a Rams offense that lacks much in the way of upside in the passing game outside of its top two.

If asked to wager, I’d take Ferguson over Higbee with conviction for the season, but in Week 1, it feels like we are splitting a role that is hardly large enough for a single player two ways.

Keep an eye on all of the usage stats (or check back weekly, knowing that I’ll have my eye on it), but for now, there isn’t a tight end in the city of Los Angeles that I feel good about in standard formats.

Travis Kelce (at Chargers)

The Travis Kelce debate feels complicated because we are talking about an all-time great, but isn’t it the same as the Patrick Mahomes debate?

That is, a player whose statistical resume is elite and his reasonable weekly projection much closer to good than great?

Kelce caught 12 of 15 targets against the Chargers last season and will continue to be an efficient chain mover for a franchise still on the fringes of the dynastic conversation. He means plenty to the offensive picture in Kansas City, but that doesn’t mean that, in this evolving world of athletic tight ends, he’s a strong fantasy play.

In 2024, Kelce wasn’t a top-10 scorer at the position in 10 of 16 games. In fact, he’s found paydirt just three times over his past 22 regular-season games.

There is a spot in your starting lineup for Kelce this week. The emotional side of fantasy is what essentially complicates this situation. As long as you acknowledge that, with Kelce, your goal is to tread water at the position as opposed to win your week, you’re in a good spot.

If you expect a vintage Kelce season, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. Combine the name value with a big game or two, and Kelce’s name will be featured on our “sell high” articles, especially as we get into the middle of the season, where the Chiefs have gone out of their way to manage reps.

Trey McBride (at Saints)

The only debate here is if Trey McBride can wear the TE crown this season. He’s clearly a game-changer at the position, and he was drafted as such. You should feel great about counting on him for elite weekly volume.

What more can you ask for?

McBride was the only tight end with 12 games of 5+ catches in 2024, a nod to a floor that is second to none. To help you understand how rare that level of consistency is, wrap your head around this fact: Zach Ertz and Sam LaPorta, a pair of perfectly viable TEs last season, combined for 11 games with at least five receptions.

I have McBride ranked as my TE1 this week and am very much considering going that direction in DFS. That’s not a knock on Bowers, but he does have to navigate a situation that has changed significantly while the Cardinals are essentially running back their 2024 offense.

Tucker Kraft (vs. Lions)

If you want to play TE roulette, who am I to stop you?

I like Kraft as a player. He was one of three tight ends to have a 20-yard catch in 10 games last season and was fantasy’s top scorer at the position in two different weeks in 2024 (the others were George Kittle and Brock Bowers).

There’s potential there, but I’m just not sure the opportunity to open the season is enough to make him a wise bet. Last season, in a year where the Packers were eighth in points scored and Kraft finished sixth at the position in offensive snaps share (84.8%, putting him in the Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and Bowers tier), Kraft’s overall fantasy production was ordinary.

In a 32-team league, 19 tight ends had at least as many games with 55+ receiving yards as Kraft. Green Bay still projects as an offense that relies on Josh Jacobs, and the path to targets didn’t exactly open up for their tight end with the 23rd overall pick being spent on Matthew Golden.

I don’t think Kraft is a fantasy starter this week or for the rest of the season. That said, if I’m wrong, it may not impact you.

The Packers have a Week 5 bye, and unless Kraft has a huge September, there’s a chance he’s cut loose in your league ahead of that. If you see usage trends you like in the first month, sit tight and pounce with time. Green Bay gets the Bengals and Cardinals immediately following the bye, giving Kraft’s star the potential to take off after his current manager has cut bait.

I’m tracking, but I’m doing it from a distance..

Tyler Warren (vs. Dolphins)

Over the past two decades, eight times a first-round TE has exceeded 20 routes run in his first career game:

• Noah Fant (2019): 4.4 PPR points
• Dalton Kincaid (2023): 6.6 PPR points
• Kyle Pitts (2021): 7.1 PPR points
• Evan Engram (2017): 8.4 PPR points
• Tyler Eiftert (2013): 9.7 PPR points
• Brock Bowers (2024): 11.8 PPR points
• Vernon Davis (2006): 14.7 PPR points
• T.J. Hockenson (2019): 25.1 PPR points

The Colts’ passing offense is a question mark at best, but Warren’s combination of draft capital and dynamic ability with the ball in his hands makes him a top-10 TE for me until proven otherwise.

We are talking about a limited target sample, but Indianapolis tight ends last season ranked seventh in YAC, fourth in yards per catch, and first in average target depth. Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, and Drew Ogletree drove those numbers, which are well-established luminaries at the position.

The Dolphins ranked 21st in yards allowed per catch after the reception in 2024, which is a scab. I expect this offense to pick at by way of the 14th overall pick. Some rookies need to work their way into my trust circle, and others who start there: Warren is the latter for me, and I feel good about it.

Zach Ertz (vs. Giants)

As someone also in their mid-30s, I’d love for this season for me to be what 2024 was for Zach Ertz. The veteran TE stayed on the field (17 missed games over the two years prior), averaged a career high 1.95 PPR points per target, and didn’t show signs of fatigue (TD scored against the Lions in the Divisional Round and 11 grabs against the Eagles with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line).

Ertz caught all five of his targets against the Giants last season (two games, 47 routes run), an underwhelming level of involvement, but at least he was efficient in Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era.

The Giants ranked fifth in blitz rate in 2024, a scheme I expect to sustain, and that introduces a PPR merchant sort of afternoon into the range of outcomes for a savvy player like Ertz. If the mission is to kill your opponent, death by 1,000 paper cuts is still a means to that end.

It is important to note that, although he was surprisingly productive a season ago, it certainly didn’t look that way out of the gates for Ertz (under 40 receiving yards in four of his first five and held scoreless until the back-half of October).

We are talking about a tight end in a tier that stretches down some 8-12 names regarding “fringe TE1” status. In a perfect world, your matchup doesn’t hinge on a player like this, but in the scope of this range at the position, I’ll take the floor of Ertz over less proven options or those with unclear roles.