Tyler Allgeier has spent the past three seasons playing second fiddle to Bijan Robinson. With his rookie deal up, he was expecting to get a shot at lead back role on his new team, the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately, things are not going according to plan. With Allgeier once again stuck behind an uber-talented starter, what does his fantasy football value look like going forward?
Should You Draft Tyler Allgeier in Fantasy Football?
Allgeier burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2022. Despite being a fifth-rounder, he quickly found his way into the RB1 role with the Falcons and looked quite good. He averaged an impressive 4.9 yards per carry and ran for over 1,000 yards. Most importantly for fantasy, he closed the season out on fire, averaging 17.0 fantasy points per game over his final four contests.
Typically, when rookies show that kind of promise at the end of the season, the stage is set for them to parlay into a quality sophomore season. Everything suggested that would be the case for Allgeier. Then, the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson.
Former OC Arthur Smith may have used Allgeier more than he should’ve in Robinson’s rookie year, but Robinson was and is clearly the superior player. By 2024, there was no more committee; it was the Robinson show.
Over the past two seasons, Allgeier, while still being talented enough to start, was relegated to a bit role. His snap share and opportunity shares remained below 30%. He did score eight touchdowns last season, which gave him fantasy value on the weeks he found the end zone, but that was more variance than any sort of increased role. He still only touched the ball 157 times. That’s enough to be worth rostering in fantasy, but certainly not a player who will make a difference.
Nevertheless, Allgeier’s talent was evident. There’s no doubt he’s one of the 32 best running backs in the NFL. He just needed a chance to start.
The Cardinals had a nightmare running back situation last season with James Conner and Trey Benson both going down early in the season. They wound up with a running back room featuring Emari Demercado, Michael Carter, and Bam Knight. Although the team brought back the 31 year old Conner, it’s quite clear they no longer have confidence in him or Benson.
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Based on all of the information available, it’s quite clear that Allgeier signed with the Cardinals under the presumption he would be their starting running back. For what it’s worth, I fully believe the Cardinals also felt that way in March. Unfortunately, things change.
We can debate the merits of taking a running back No. 3 overall all we want. Okay. No we can’t. The pick was terrible. But for fantasy football, it’s not our job to care. Our job is to react.
Clearly, the Cardinals warmed up significantly to taking Jeremiyah Love at No. 3 overall and were not going to let their representations to Allgeier get in the way.
So, Allgeier finds himself in familiar territory. He’s the RB2 behind a young, talented, highly drafted running back who is superior to him in every way. That’s not meant to be a knock on Allgeier. Love is just a really good prospect and the Cardinals did not take him No. 3 overall to have him in a committee with a free agent signee.
Allgeier’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In 2026 fantasy drafts, Allgeier should be drafted universally. He proved last season he’s capable of having some semblance of standalone value. And, of course, he has the injury-contingent upside. If Love were to miss time, Allgeier would be the presumptive starter. It’s safe to project him firmly ahead of Conner and Benson.
The problem with investing in Allgeier, though, is even if we assume we are correct about him being the handcuff to Love, what would his value be if Love were to go down? Allgeier would be the lead back on a team that projects to be one of the worst in football.
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If the Cardinals are trailing in games, which they were for much of last season, they will be throwing. Well, Allgeier isn’t exactly a receiving back.
Allgeier has missed one game in his entire career. We have four full-season samples, including his rookie season when he was the lead back for most of the year. Allgeier has never seen a target share above 4.6% and never caught more than 18 passes in a season.
Even in a starting role, Allgeier would be heavily dependent on touchdowns. Much like last year, when he doesn’t score, he’s not coming close to being worthy of a spot in fantasy lineups. And now his offensive situation is worse.
The most likely outcome is that Allgeier is a thorn in Love’s side, similar to how he was to Robinson last season. He’ll steal a couple of touchdowns and mix in on short yardage. But Love should at least handle 50% of the goal-line work and be the receiving back. I don’t expect Conner or Benson, if both even make the team, to play much at all.
With all that said, Allgeier’s RB48 price tag is incredibly reasonable. We all have our best-laid plans before the season. But once the games start, those visions of having high upside players at every spot in our lineup are quickly replaced by injury and underperformance. There will likely come a time during the season when having a guy like Allgeier, who you know will see 6-8 touches and have a 25-30% chance at scoring a touchdown, is worth starting.
I have Allgeier at RB49 in our consensus rankings, right in line with ADP. He’s a fine RB4/5 to put on the back of your roster, while also being someone you’d be okay dropping if you had to.
Allgeier’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
This was supposed to be the year Allgeier’s dynasty value took a leap forward. In fact, it did briefly after he signed with the Cardinals to be their starter. However, after the team drafted Love, that sent Allgeier right back to the depths.
Allgeier is only 26 years old, but he’s now losing another season as a potential starter and is tied to the Cardinals through the 2027 season. Even when he likely moves on to a third team in 2028, the chances of Allgeier ever being an impact fantasy asset are all but gone. At that point, he will be 28 years old and never really served as a feature back. There’s really no precedent for a running back finally getting his chance at a 15+ touch-per-game role at that age.
We do have Allgeier a bit higher in dynasty than in redraft, ranking him at RB40. But that’s still far from starting fantasy back territory. Consider Allgeier a solid player to have on your bench, but not someone to aggressively target.
