Dak Prescott has been embroiled in a vicious cycle since 2019, alternating full, healthy seasons of QB1 production with injury-shortened disasters. Of course, that pattern is completely random, and we have no reason to believe it will continue. The longtime Dallas Cowboys signal caller remains as rock-solid as ever.
Should You Draft Dak Prescott in Fantasy Football?
Once upon a time, Prescott was a mobile quarterback. He was never a true runner like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but was like prime Russell Wilson-lite. He would give fantasy managers about 4ish fantasy points per game on the ground. Sadly, that Prescott was destroyed along with his ankle in Week 5 of the 2020 season.
Since then, Prescott is averaging 1.74 PPG on the ground. He’s not even really a tactical scrambler anymore. He’s become a traditional pocket passer.
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This should bode well for his longevity. Prescott is already 33 years old, but has shown no signs of decline. There’s no reason to believe he can’t continue playing at a high level for another half decade or more. But it does cap his ceiling in fantasy.
Prescott almost led the NFL in passing last season, throwing for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns. He averaged a very respectable 19.1 PPG. That was good for an overall QB9 finish.
This is who Prescott is now. He’s a high-floor QB1 who we can expect to average somewhere from 18-21 PPG, depending on touchdown variance.
With CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson all returning, the Cowboys offense should look pretty much how it did last season. Brian Schottenheimer’s offense did not dial back the clock as some feared. The Cowboys actually ranked seventh in the league with a 58% neutral game script pass rate. Javonte Williams was a revelation last season, but this remains a pass-first offense, which is great for fantasy managers.
In fantasy football, it’s not that simple.
Burrow is entering his sixth NFL season. He’s played a full season in half of them. In those three seasons, Burrow has averaged between 20.5 and 22.5 fantasy points per game. Those are great numbers. No one is complaining about that level of production. And the fact that he’s done it in every full season speaks to his ability to do it again. At the same time, Burrow is more reliant on touchdowns than any other elite quarterback.
Prescott’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spend premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but being more predictable year over year.
Given how flat the wide receivers get once you get into the WR2 range, combined with running backs falling off a cliff around the fifth round, it’s more viable than usual to spend up for an elite QB. But the arguments in favor of late-round QB remain strong.
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With that said, there isn’t necessarily a compelling reason to specifically target Prescott. Rather, he is best viewed as one of several options for fantasy managers who pass on the elites like Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye.
Prescott is part of a large group of quarterbacks with similar value. If he ends up being the one you prefer at the right time, by all means, push that button.
However, if Prescott continues to go multiple rounds earlier than the likes of Jaxson Dart, Brock Purdy, and Bo Nix, it is probably best to wait and take one of them, as the difference is negligible, but the opportunity cost is lower.
Prescott’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
At any other position, turning 33 years old would be a strong signal to sell. Not at quarterback. Traditional pocket passers typically have longer careers. By the time guys like Allen and Jackson are Prescott’s age, history suggests they may be just about done. Prescott isn’t close to declining.
Dynasty managers often get caught up with age. Of course, it matters. But thinking more than three years down the line is usually a recipe for disaster. It’s just too difficult to predict the ever-changing NFL landscape.
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Prescott should not be viewed much differently from a longevity standpoint than someone like Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow. Both of them are younger and will play longer, but none of them are close to the end.
We have Prescott at QB14 in dynasty, which is lower than where he will likely finish in PPG for the better part of the next few years. Contending dynasty rosters in need of a quarterback should view Prescott as someone to target in Superflex formats. His age should make him reasonably attainable.
Even rebuilding dynasty teams shouldn’t necessarily avoid him. A two-year rebuild would still result in a 35-year-old Prescott being on your roster. There’s no reason to think Prescott will be any less viable as a back-end QB1 in 2028 or 2029. He could be a cheap and somewhat counterintuitive way to jump-start a rebuild.
