Justin Herbert was a bit of a polarizing prospect when the Los Angeles Chargers selected him at No. 6 overall in the 2020 draft. He quickly proved all the doubters wrong, bursting onto the scene with immediate high-level production. But things have not been at that level in a long time. With a new offensive system in place, could this be the year Herbert reestablishes himself as an elite fantasy football quarterback?
Should You Draft Justin Herbert in Fantasy Football?
Rewind the clock to the year 2020. Herbert is backing up Tyrod Taylor. He was widely expected to start a few games before ultimately giving way to the rookie. A medical mishap thrust Herbert into a starting role immediately. All the analysts who argue rookie QBs are better served sitting behind a veteran for a bit must not remember rookie Herbert.
Herbert’s first two seasons were spectacular. He averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game as a rookie and 23.3 PPG as a sophomore. Heading into the 2022 season, Herbert was locked in as a top five dynasty quarterback and looked poised to dominate the position for 15 years.
Since then, it’s been only disappointment.
Herbert hasn’t been a disaster. He’s never averaged fewer than 17.0 PPG. But relative to where expectations were after his first two seasons, he’s certainly disappointed.
For multiple years, fantasy managers have been waiting for the real Herbert to show up. After not seeing him for four straight seasons, it’s fair to wonder if this is the real Herbert. Fortunately, we finally have reason for optimism.
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The Jim Harbaugh era has been kind to the Chargers, making them more competitive and an annual playoff contender. But the run-first nature of the offense has capped Herbert’s fantasy upside.
Herbert’s pass attempts per game:
- 2020-2022: 40.1
- 2023-2025: 32.0
That is a staggering decrease and a difficult one to swallow, given that Herbert didn’t do anything to warrant the offense trying to hide him.
The crazy part is Harbaugh’s offense isn’t exactly trying to mirror something from the 1970s. In his two seasons running the team, the Chargers have actually had a 56% neutral game script pass rate. That ranks 11th in the league over that time frame. The issue has been pace of play. Los Angeles is one of the slowest teams in the league.
From 2020-2023, the Chargers averaged 26.7 seconds per snap. Harbaugh was hired in 2024. Since then, the Chargers are at 28.8 seconds per snap (both numbers are neutral game script only). Specifically, last season, the Chargers averaged 29.7 seconds per snap. Herbert simply cannot do as much because the Chargers aren’t running as many plays.
The reality is Herbert’s ability hasn’t gone anywhere. He averaged 0.53 fantasy points per dropback last season. That’s right in line with his first two seasons where he was an elite QB1 (0.55 and 0.56).
Herbert averaged 18.7 PPG last season despite attempting just 512 passes in 16 games. If we can get him some more dropbacks, he can get back to being that guy he was in his first two seasons.
Herbert’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spent premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but being more predictable year over year.
Given how flat the wide receivers get once you get into the WR2 range, combined with running backs falling off a cliff around the fifth round, it’s more viable than usual to spend up for an elite QB. But the arguments in favor of late-round QB remain strong. Does Herbert quality? He’s close.
There are a number of quarterbacks relatively close in ADP with Herbert right in the middle of them. How many of them have top-five upside? Truthfully, most of them. But if you want a case to specifically target Herbert, here it is: Mike McDaniel.
During his first two seasons as the Dolphins head coach, when McDaniel had functioning QB play from Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins were No. 11 and No. 2 in scoring offense. In 2022, he managed to coax an 18.4 PPG season out of Tagovailoa.
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Herbert enters the McDaniel era with no shortage of weapons. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden II, and Omarion Hampton form a very strong supporting cast.
The Chargers have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Last year, they graded out as the No. 30 OL in PFSN Impact Score because everyone got hurt. When healthy, this is a top unit anchored by Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.
Additionally, Herbert showed some extra juice with his legs last season, rushing for a career-high 31.1 yards per game. That’s an extra 3.1 fantasy points per game via rushing alone, 1.3 up from his career average.
Herbert remains one of several options for fantasy managers who pass on the elites like Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye. While he’s not the cheapest of the medley of low QB1/high QB2 options that all have vertical upside, he’s very much worth drafting. Based on Herbert’s historical performances, he’s being drafted near his floor.
Herbert’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
Herbert checks in at QB7 in our dynasty rankings. At 28 years old, he’s firmly in his prime. Not being a true mobile quarterback makes it likely Herbert can continue to perform at a high level for another decade. If you have Herbert on your dynasty roster, you know you have a starting fantasy quarterback who has no risk of losing his job or flaming out for a long time.
Given that Herbert has proven top-three upside and just got an offensive coordinator upgrade and will get an offensive line upgrade by virtue of health, it seems likely that, at worst, his dynasty value won’t go down in 2026.
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With Allen and Jackson at or near 30 and being mobile QBs, with each passing year, they get much closer to the end. Herbert is nowhere close. We could be a year or two away from Herbert passing one or both of them in dynasty value.
If you have Herbert on your roster, he is firmly a hold. A rock-solid back-end QB1 with elite QB1 upside.
