Travis Kelce has been a fantasy football superstar for the bulk of his career, and he projects to still be heavily involved as the Kansas City Chiefs look to bounce back from a poor 2025 season.
Managers are left to wrestle with one tough question: are they willing to take the dive, understanding that once you draft Kelce, you’re effectively committing to him for better or worse?
Should You Draft Travis Kelce in Fantasy Football?
Technically, this upcoming season is Kelce’s age-36 one because the age cut-off for qualifiers like that is September 1 across the industry. He turns 37 in October, so he’s certainly on the old side of 36, but let’s give him the benefit of the doubt.
Last season, it took 10 PPR PPG to be a top-15 performer at the position. Not an overwhelming threshold, and Kelce is pretty obviously an outlier, but the age trends are at least worth being aware of.
Top 5 Age-36+ Seasons Since 2016, Pass Catchers
- 2016 Steve Smith: 13.1 PPG
- 2019 Larry Fitzgerald: 11.1 PPG
- 2016 Antonio Gates: 10.6 PPG
- 2019 Jason Witten: 8.7 PPG
- 2017 Benjamin Watson: 8.6 PPG
That’s not pretty. If we use history as a guide, Kelce being anything close to viable would be an outlier, never mind being a piece that you feel good about starting every week in which he is active, with his QB coming off of a major knee injury.
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Kelce will play his 200th regular season game this season and is nearly 1,300 receptions if you include the postseason runs: this is an aging body that has taken plenty of punishment for a player with a wide range of interests off the field.
Father Time isn’t a myth, and we’ve begun to see some slippage for this future Hall of Famer: the average TE production per target hasn’t changed over the past three seasons from the three prior, but Kelce’s has dipped by 18.4%.
We are looking at a resume that doesn’t have more than five touchdown receptions in three straight seasons, after scoring 32 times across the three prior years.
FANTASY RANKINGS: PPR, Half-PPR, Non-PPR, Superflex, and More
It’s tough to label him as a weekly starter in most fantasy formats. Kelce is in that mix with Mark Andrews, Jake Ferguson, and Dallas Goedert: tight ends we are comfortable with who are supported by a good offense, but more appealing for their floors than their ceilings.
Why not wait a little longer and roll the dice on Isaiah Likely or wait until late for Oronde Gadsden? Heck, Kenyon Sadiq has draft capital working in his favor and the best might be yet to come for Chig Okonkwo now that he’s broken out of Tennessee.
Kelce’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
I’m not sold that there is one productive season left in the tank, so no, I’m generally not paying the name tax to acquire his services in a dynasty format.
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That said, everyone has a price. If this Chiefs team is flirting with .500 at the end of October in an improved division, could a low-ball trade offer make sense for a win now team? I’m not closing the door, but I’m not exactly stalking the Ring camera in search of signs of life
