The Atlanta Falcons signed Brian Robinson to replace the departing Tyler Allgeier as Bijan Robinson’s backup. Coming off the first season of his career in which he wasn’t a fantasy football factor at all, what will Robinson’s role look like on his new team? Is there potential for him to be a fantasy factor?
Should You Draft Brian Robinson in Fantasy Football?
Let’s get some housekeeping out of the way first. For the purposes of this article, to alleviate confusion, Brian Robinson will be referred to exclusively as “Robinson” Or “BRob.”
For the first three years of his career, BRob mattered in fantasy. He was never a superstar or a needle-mover, but he was worth rostering and startable, at least as a Flex. Robinson averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game as a rookie, 13.2 PPG as a sophomore, and 11.4 PPG in his third season. All three of those came in Washington.
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Last year, Robinson moved to San Francisco, where he served as Christian McCaffrey’s primary backup. Players behind McCaffrey don’t play much. Robinson saw career lows in volume, and his production basically cut in half. He went from consecutive seasons around 900-1,000 total yards to just 425.
Although the usage was disappointing, Robinson was the same player. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry, which was actually a career high, and was top 20 in evaded tackles per touch rate. There just wasn’t much opportunity with McCaffrey staying healthy. In 2024, Robinson saw a 58.7% opportunity share. That was a mere 19.1% last season.
Now in Atlanta, Robinson’s job should be to literally replace Allgeier, who signed with the Cardinals. Last season, Allgeier averaged 7.2 PPG, which placed him inside the top 48 running backs. That’s enough to be worthy of being on a fantasy roster.
Most importantly, Allgeier was a factor at the goal line, handling six goal touches. In total, he scored eight times. In games where Allgeier scored, he averaged 12.4 PPG. Of course, it’s impossible to predict when those games will be. But the fact remains, the Falcons’ RB2 has fantasy utility. You can do worse than a touchdown or bust RB2 if you need to plug someone into your lineup.
Robinson’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
We know Robinson will serve as Bijan’s primary backup. As much as we, as fantasy managers, don’t have the greatest track record of predicting RB handcuffs with confidence, this is a situation we can be very confident in. If Bijan were to miss time, BRob would be the lead back. That, alone, makes Robinson worth drafting. The bigger question is whether he can have any sort of standalone role similar to Allgeier.
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The Falcons have a new coaching staff, the third different one of Bijan’s tenure with the team. The first coaching staff decided that this generational talent only needed to touch the ball about 50% of the time. That staff is no longer here for a reason. The second one, led by Raheem Morris, made Bijan the bell cow, but still limited him around the goal line. They are now gone as well.
We really don’t know if Kevin Stefanski feels the same way, but it stands to reason that Robinson will steal at least a handful of touchdowns away from Bijan. As far as backup running backs go, Robinson is one of the better ones in the league. Is he as talented as Allgeier? Probably not. But the gap isn’t massive. Plus, at 224 pounds, BRob has the size and power for a goal-line back.
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Robinson’s ADP is just outside the top 48 running backs. He should still be drafted in most leagues, but it’s not a guarantee in shallower formats. I have BRob as my RB50, right in line with ADP.
The best type of backup running back is the one with standalone value. We can’t say for sure that’s BRob, but there’s at least a chance. That makes him more appealing than some of the other pure handcuffs around him. As the last running back on your roster, he’s a fine dart to throw. Whether you draft him will depend on roster construction.
Robinson’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
Robinson is a tricky dynasty asset. He’s now on his third team in five NFL seasons. We know he won’t be the lead back this year, playing behind Bijan. Given that he’s already 27 years old, it’s pretty much a certainty that he will never be a lead back again, barring being thrust into the role unexpectedly due to injury.
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There’s not much long-term upside with Robinson. Even if he does find himself starting a handful of times, no level of performance based on his historical numbers will compel a team to make him their feature back next season.
Robinson is what he is. He’s a solid handcuff. He deserves to be on dynasty rosters, but as nothing more than a depth piece. We have BRob as our RB56 in dynasty. He’s the type of player you tack onto a trade to either give or get a little extra.
