Sean Payton loves his split backfields. Last season, the Denver Broncos utilized a medley of running backs, making it difficult for any one of them to reach his true fantasy football potential. This season, Jonah Coleman joins a backfield led by J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. Undoubtedly, is the RB3 to start the rookie worth an investment in fantasy drafts?
Should You Draft Jonah Coleman in Fantasy Football?
Last season, Denver traded up to overdraft a projected Day 3 running back in Harvey. Then, they pushed free agent signee Dobbins into the RB1 role, where it truly was a starter/backup situation. Dobbins served in that role until his Week 10 season-ending foot injury.
After Dobbins went down, Harvey started, but he also split time with Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie. Harvey’s snap share did increase, but he was never a three-down back.
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Despite bringing back Dobbins and Harvey obviously returning, the Broncos drafted Coleman in the early part of the fourth round. Early reports out of OTAs were that Coleman could have an immediate role, but I am highly skeptical. However, that doesn’t mean he’s irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
Since entering the league in 2020, Dobbins has never played a full season. He was a seldom-used backup in 2020. As a result, he remained healthy, playing in 15 games. Since then, here are Dobbins’ games played by season:
- 2021: 0
- 2022: 8
- 2023: 1
- 2024: 13
- 2025: 10
99% of the time, I do not believe we can predict injury, and it shouldn’t factor into fantasy analysis. Football is a violent game. Anyone can get hurt. But we have six years of evidence suggesting Dobbins is a far greater-than-average injury risk.
Coleman is not a special player by any means. He’s not elite at anything, but he’s pretty good at everything.
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At 220 pounds, he has the size to handle the dirty work between the tackles and profiles as a strong goal-line option. Coleman is also a sneaky good pass catcher. He saw a 9.7% target share during his final season at Washington.
Coleman’s skill set makes him uniquely suited to serve as the handcuff for both Dobbins and Harvey. Whereas in most backfields, each role has its own backup, Coleman could step in for an injured Dobbins or Harvey and do what each of them is currently asked to do.
We should always have a healthy dose of skepticism about whether any Day 3 rookies will be used, but given Dobbins’ injury history plus Coleman’s size, it’s not ridiculous to think he may take some short-yardage and goal-line work. Coleman is also a capable receiver, which ensures Dobbins has no path to a passing-down role even if Harvey were to get hurt.
Harvey would obviously benefit from a Dobbins injury as well. We saw it last season. But if Payton viewed Harvey as a three-down back, he would deploy Harvey as such. He has not and will not.
I believe Harvey is locked into his role. That means if Dobbins gets hurt again, Harvey’s usage mostly stays the same. He’d still start, but Coleman would be the favorite to lead the team in carries, as well as handle goal-line work.
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Similarly, if Harvey went down, it certainly isn’t going to be Dobbins playing more passing downs. Last season, Dobbins saw a 4.3% target share. Throughout his career, he’s never been a prolific receiver. We can debate the merits of his lack of passing game usage and whether it’s a skill issue or a coaching decision issue all we want.
The reality is it doesn’t matter. We can confidently project Dobbins for a very minimal passing game role. There is a path for Coleman here.
Coleman’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
The biggest issue facing Coleman is the lack of standalone value. He is going to be the RB3. No NFL team’s RB3 can have standalone fantasy value. It’s just not possible. That means anyone who drafts Coleman has to sit on him until something changes.
In August, that’s still a worthwhile pick to make. However, Coleman’s RB53 ADP is quite high for a real-life RB3. Yes, it helps that he’s on a good offense behind an injury-prone starter, but there’s no real path to a third-down role. There are several other pure handcuffs going behind Coleman who are one injury away from being the starter.
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Ultimately, I prefer the backs with a clearer path to volume. That’s why Coleman is my RB52.
He will likely be taken in most fantasy drafts. He will also likely be one of the first players dropped in September for the hot waiver wire adds. Fantasy managers will need to let someone go from their bench, and the Broncos’ RB3, playing behind two healthy (at the time) incumbents, will be the first option.
Coleman’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
It’s not hard to sell yourself on the idea that Dobbins, at 27 years old with his injury history, won’t be in Denver next season. The natural conclusion to that is that the Broncos will deploy a backfield featuring Harvey and Coleman next season, making the rookie more appealing in dynasty than in redraft.
While Coleman is undoubtedly more interesting in dynasty, it might not be by much. Historical trends from NFL teams do not support the foregone conclusion that Coleman steps into a larger role in 2027.
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Coleman is a Day 3 pick and will forever be a Day 3 pick. He has no job security and no guarantee of anything beyond this year. As easily as he could shine and earn the 1b or 1a role next year, he could just as easily be cast aside for the next hot rookie. Coleman is not going to stop the Broncos from drafting a running back on Day 2 next year if they want one.
We have Coleman at RB48 in our consensus dynasty rankings. He is a capable player who deserves to be in the NFL and have a role, but more likely than not to never ascend beyond backup status. Given the weakness of the 2026 rookie class as a whole, Coleman looks better by comparison. But there’s a decent chance his value has either peaked already or will peak during his rookie season.
