The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Houston Texans players heading into their matchup with the Seattle Seahawks to help you craft a winning lineup.
C.J. Stroud, QB
Before the bye, C.J. Stroud gave us his top two performances of the season. The numbers were nothing short of great (81.8% complete with six touchdowns and zero interceptions), but we do need to take into account the competition.
The first of those two games came against a then-winless Titans team that had allowed 74 points over the previous two weeks, and the second against a Ravens team that was one injury shy of lining up the janitor across from Nico Collins.
Stroud took care of the matchups he was supposed to, but we need at least one more data point before even suggesting that the rookie-season version of him is back in our lives.
This Seattle defense has looked good for most of this season, and I think this will be an interesting chess match. The Seahawks rarely blitz, but when they do, they rank among the best at creating chaos.
Do they ramp up the blitz rate against the weakness of this Houston team? My guess would be “yes,” and that comes with a wide range of outcomes.
If they get home, Stroud might not be a top 20 QB this week. If not, we are looking at a lot of Collins (36.1% blitzed target share), and that’s generally optimal.
The 24.4 rushing yards per game for Stroud is encouraging, and I’m optimistic that this game can be something of a turning point, but the responsible ranker in me has to consider both sides, and that means he’s sitting just outside of my top 12 for the week.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 7 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Nick Chubb, RB
Two chunk-play touchdowns this season are why I believe that Nick Chubb still garners interest from the Texans and fantasy managers, but it certainly feels as if he is on borrowed time.
Houston went back to the veteran in Week 5, even after a strong showing from rookie Woody Marks and a 27-yard touchdown, which was otherwise an awfully ordinary game in a great spot in Baltimore (10 carries for 34 yards and zero receptions).
Entering the Week 6 bye, there were 43 running backs with at least 30 rushing attempts, and none of them saw a higher percentage of their rushing yards come before contact (45%) than Chubb (league average: 26.4%). That’s an alarming stat for two reasons: (1) he’s not creating much for himself, and (2) this offensive line isn’t any good.
The 29-year-old has over 1,500 touches on his NFL resume, and while he’s shown slightly more burst at times this season than I expected, I still don’t think he’s a viable fantasy option long-term.
Even in playing ahead of Marks for the vast majority of Houston’s first five games, Chubb has yet to clear 13 rushing attempts and has caught just seven passes. He deserves a roster spot because he’s a good bet for 10-12 touches, and that’s not available on most waiver wires, but asking him to be a starter for you on any sort of consistent basis, no matter the matchup, is a step I’m not willing to take.
Christian Kirk, WR
The thought of Christian Kirk makes sense, but I’m just not sure the practical version of him will live up to it.
An experienced slot man, complementing Collins in an offense that has protection problems, should be giving us high-end volume. But eight targets on 40 routes over his past two games isn’t really moving the needle, given that none of those looks carry a ton of upside (one came 15+ yards downfield and zero have come in the red zone).
I think you hold Kirk, knowing exactly what he is. He’s an efficient player in a flawed offense, with a safe role, albeit one that won’t swing your matchup in a significant way. This is the type of profile I don’t mind stashing for when injuries/byes ravage my starting lineup, but it’s also one I’m not looking to play otherwise.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Kirk checks in outside of my top 35 at the position this week, and that’ll be the case more often than not until we see more of the offense being funneled through him.
Dalton Schultz, TE
Before the bye, Dalton Schultz eclipsed 40 receiving yards for the first time this season with a 5-60-0 effort against what was left of the Ravens in a 44-10 runaway victory.
He can be an efficient player, and he showed a nose for the end zone before last season with 5+ scores in three straight, but I’m not in the business of betting on this Houston pass game more than I have to.
Even with exactly five catches (and six targets) in each of his past three games, Schultz has yet to crack the top 15 at the position in a week this season. He’s earned just four end zone looks over his past 25 games, and without high-end volume upside (3.6 catches per game since joining the Texans in 2023), there’s not a real path for him to generate interest from me every week.
Fine play, not a fantasy asset right now.
