The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Houston Texans players heading into their matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars to help you craft a winning lineup.
C.J. Stroud, QB
Talk about a gotta-have-it game. In a perfect world, this is a 41-37 type of game, and both offenses flex the upside we believe they have.
More likely, that doesn’t happen. C.J. Stroud has just one touchdown toss on 51 attempts this season, and it took Nico Collins summoning every athletic bone in his body to make it happen.
He’s quietly rushed for 24+ yards in both games this season, but that’s been more the product of running for his life than anything by design.
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His career numbers against the Jaguars are strong (20+ fantasy points in three of four with seven scores and zero interceptions), and if this Houston line can hold up against the 28th-ranked pressure defense, I think we could see some glimpses of rookie Stroud.
I’m leaving the light on for him in terms of a single-bullet DFS lineup where I lean fully into this game, understanding that this is a risky situation given the lack of form from this unit thus far.
Joe Mixon, RB
Joe Mixon battled an ankle injury throughout the summer, and considering he has missed three games in two of the past three seasons, not to mention that he has north of 2,100 NFL touches, he will be tough to trust in any capacity in the short term. The team announced on Aug. 25 that their starting back had been transferred to the reserve/non-football injury list, which rules him out for at least the first four games of this season.
The 29-year-old has averaged more than 4.1 yards per catch just once in his career, making him more of a volume-based fantasy asset than one that can hit your lineup with limited work. With over 1,200 scrimmage yards in four straight seasons, Mixon stands to be a weekly option, but you’re playing the long game.
Houston goes on bye in Week 6 and has some difficult matchups sprinkled in their schedule over the first two months. But if we get a bellcow version of Mixon as winter nears, he could be a popular name on rosters playing for fantasy glory (Week 15-16, home games against the Cardinals and Raiders).
Nick Chubb, RB
The final stat line for Nick Chubb looks good because of the late 25-yard touchdown, but it was a slog for the most part (11 carries for 18 yards before the score).
Christian Kirk is expected to return this weekend, which may help the passing game get going a bit. However, until that happens, I’m not sure how you can start Chubb with any confidence.
Football is better when Nick Chubb is healthy. Welcome back, King pic.twitter.com/CC8d7Bp6lm
— Thirteen Sports (@ts13sports) September 16, 2025
After two weeks, he’s the second-worst post-contact back in the league, and playing behind a bottom-10 offensive line only exacerbates this issue.
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Woody Marks looked spry on his four touches, and while I don’t think he’s a real threat to make this a committee situation, any change in touch distribution layers in more risk to a Chubb profile that I’d already rather avoid.
I similarly see Chubb as I see Pacheco right now in that both are lead backs for their respective teams that I’d much prefer to fade than to roll the dice on.
Woody Marks, RB
Wood Marks nearly doubled his snap count from Week 1 (seven) to Week 2 (13) and showcased a little bit of pizzazz that the Houston backfield has been lacking.
On Monday night, he carried three times for 14 yards against the Bucs while adding a 37-yard gain on his lone target.
I don’t think there’s anything actionable to do in more situations today, but if you have a deep roster, the rookie is worth a look as a bet against Nick Chubb.
Of course, even if you win that bet, you have a dreadful offensive line to worry about, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. Keep an eye on Marks in standard leagues; there’s no need to pounce just yet in most situations.
Christian Kirk, WR
A strained hamstring has resulted in Christian Kirk missing the first two weeks of this season, and the team has expressed a desire to be cautious with a receiver who missed nine games last season. Nico Collins was on the shelf for over a month with a similar diagnosis last season, and that is likely to serve as a guiding light this time around (Houston has their bye in Week 6).
That shouldn’t significantly impact your fantasy roster. Kirk wasn’t drafted as a starter in most formats, and with bye weeks not a thing in September, the odds were slim that you were going to start him in the short term, even if at full strength.
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If you have the luxury of an IR slot or deep benches, I remain moderately bullish on Kirk carving out a niche in an offense that I expect to prioritize the pass. But I understand that not everyone is in a league structured like that, and the fact of the matter is that Kirk is likely to be dead weight this month.
The “active but limited” designation is always in play with injuries like this, and that creates a headache that is greater than the potential reward. If one of these rookie receivers establishes himself, Kirk’s ceiling lowers significantly, so that’s how I’m treating this situation if I don’t have an IR spot available.
Are you bullish on either Jaylin Noel or Jayden Higgins? If so, cut ties with Kirk and look for upside elsewhere. Until that’s the case, I’d sit tight.
Jayden Higgins, WR
The Texans team is struggling to funnel targets to their proven monster, Nico Collins, leaving the surrounding parties with few scraps to go around.
Jayden Higgins is an interesting prospect with potential fantasy upside, but that day isn’t likely to be Week 3.
Or Week 4.
Or Week 5.
They have a Week 6 bye; otherwise, I’d keep going. Right now, he ranks fourth among receivers in routes run for this team, and while he seems to be the rookie WR they trust the most, that’s a low bar to clear with Jaylin Noel being more of a special teamer.
This summer, Higgins was a cheap way to bet on a C.J. Stroud bounce-back season. Process-wise, I think that made sense, but as new information presents itself, we are allowed to pivot.
I’m dumping the big-play rookie and seeking a more impactful bench player (a Troy Franklin type in Denver or Tory Horton in Seattle).
Jaylin Noel, WR
The 53-yard punt return late in Monday night’s game against the Bucs was impactful and put his speed on display, but he’s not a part of this passing game on a regular basis and this rotation will only get more difficult to crack when Christian Kirk returns.
I don’t think he’ll ever be the 80-1,194-8 player he was during his final season at Iowa State, but he is a name I’m interested in long-term if this offense can develop.
In redraft leagues, no thank you. In a buy-low dynasty deal? I’ll co-sign it.
Nico Collins, WR
We got the first target of the game thrown to Nico Collins and an early touchdown that was a work of art against the Bucs on Monday night.
Off to the races after a down Week 1, right? Right?!?
Wrong.
Houston simply cannot protect C.J. Stroud for long enough to make the breakout Collins season a realistic outcome. He was tackled on the one-yard line on a red zone slant, and while the effort was there with end zone targets galore in an attempt to finish that position, no luck.
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Collins is a locked-in fantasy starter who has seen 35 targets over his last three meetings with the Jaguars (27 catches across those contests, all of which saw him reach triple figures in terms of receiving yards), but the upside is lacking.
There’s not much you can do. Trading him would be selling low, and I certainly don’t recommend that.
Nico Collins makes this catch, then proceeds to not get a single real target the rest of the half.
What on earth is wrong with CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans OC?
— raj (@king_raj____) September 16, 2025
I take that back, there is something you can do.
Divine intervention.
Join me in the pre-bedtime ritual of looking to the sky and wishing time to throw into existence for Stroud. If we get that this weekend, or any weekend, I think he’s a threat to lead the position in scoring.
