Super Bowl props are meant to be fun. They can be made into BINGO boards, ice breakers at a viewing party, and a way to keep those without a true rooting interest engaged.
That said, having an edge is also fun, so why not kill two birds with one stone? From the best square to hold at cost to MVP odds and everything between, we have you covered for tonight’s festivities in San Francisco.
Exotic Super Bowl Prop Bets: Best Squares and Scoring Picks
Super Bowl Square: 4-4 (+1300)
Analysis from Kyle Soppe, Fantasy and Betting Analyst
For many of us, Super Bowl squares were our introduction to the sports betting space. It was low stakes with a low (no) barrier to entry. It was fully random, and it made the game more interesting than it would be otherwise.
In the year 2026, things are a bit different. At your watch party or for a local fundraiser, you can still play the game in its purest form, but for those of us on a never-ending search for an edge, the sportsbooks allow you to purchase any square you want.
Of course, with great power comes great responsibility. You can pick your square, but the “good” ones come with a hefty price tag.
The numbers in which these games land at the end of each quarter are largely random, but the key numbers (0-3-4-7) are no secret. That leaves you with a simple question: which squares hit most often and, of those, which ones are best given the odds?
As you can see, the 0-0 square is priced as the favorite and hits more often than any other box on the board, but it is also the most breakeven-priced option among the “best” squares.
If you want access to some betting ticket upside without having to dive into the spreadsheets, purchase the 4-4 square and let the chips fall where they may!
Second Half to Be the Highest Scoring Half (-115)
Analysis from Soppe
Narratives can be deceiving, and I often avoid them, but there is usually some truth to where they originated, and I think this one has legs.
During regular seasons since 2000, the average game has seen 22.3 points scored in first halves and 21.7 in second halves. That’s a pretty narrow difference with the theory being that the scripted plays off the top provide an edge to the offenses.
Over that same stretch, first halves of Super Bowls have seen 21.2 points scored per game, while second halves have exploded for 27.1. Do the extended prep time and the singular focal point make these teams prioritize not losing the Big Game early instead of trying to win it?
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The primary culprit has been the first quarter (6.8 PPG, a 22.3% dip from the average regular-season game over that same stretch), and with both of these run defenses checking in as top-10 units against the run (jot that down, we will come back to it), it’s not hard to envision a slow start as both teams try to establish a physical presence.
Speaking of which …
Both Teams to Punt on Their First Possession (+330)
Analysis from Soppe
Why not lean all the way in and chase a bigger ticket? We believe it to be true, and the data confirms that “running to set up the pass” is still a strategy that NFL offenses deploy.
Maybe not at the level of past years, but the general idea is still in the heads of these playcallers. The final two teams standing happen to rank 1-2 in first-down rush rate this postseason (both over 64%), and as you just read (and will continue to), I believe that running is going to be a difficult ask when the game environment suggests that a run is the most likely call (early game, close score).
What I like about this angle is that we are getting a nice price on a parlay that does have some correlation to it. Betting both teams separately to not score on their first drive is an option, but you have to lay much more juice. If we get a punt from the team that receives the opening kickoff, by nature of the rules in today’s game, they likely have a long field to go. When it comes to kickoffs …
The league has wanted to add excitement to the game, and with roughly three-quarters of kicks being returned, the spike in starting field position shouldn’t be a surprise.
I like both offenses to struggle early, and if we can get a punt on the first possession, we are likely swimming in closing line value when it comes to the punt equity of the second team. For those who love symmetry, both teams punted when these franchises met in the Big Game 11 years ago.
Super Bowl Passing Props: Drake Maye and Sam Darnold Bets
Drake Maye to Throw an Interception (-134)
Analysis from Jason Katz, Fantasy and Betting Analyst
By no means is Maye a turnover machine. He only threw eight interceptions during the regular season. But as we well know by now, the New England Patriots didn’t exactly face the most difficult schedule.
In the postseason, Maye threw a pick in each of his first two games. It’s fair to say the weather and game script helped him avoid making it three straight in the Patriots’ victory over the Denver Broncos.
The Seattle Seahawks recorded 18 interceptions this season, fifth-most in the league. Maye is a young quarterback playing against an elite defense that earned an 88.4 PFSN Defense Impact Score (third in the league). Given how I expect game script to go with the Seahawks taking an early lead and forcing the Patriots to go very pass-heavy, Maye is bound to throw the ball to the wrong team at least once.
Drake Maye Over 216.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Analysis from Katz
Player props are typically about projecting game script, and I am extremely confident the Seahawks win this game. That means a negative game script for the Patriots.
Drake Maye threw for only 86 yards against the Broncos, but the weather and Jarrett Stidham played significant roles.
Seattle is a nothing funnel defense. They are excellent against both the run and the pass. When that’s the case, the move is typically to lean more toward the pass.
It’s actually pretty surprising to see Maye’s number lower than Sam Darnold’s. He’s gone over this 14 times this season, and while I lean this direction, I’d rather lean into raw volume.
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Maye’s listed passing attempts line is 30.5 (-105). He’s only gone over this number four times all season, but two of those came in losses due to the comeback desire. In the Super Bowl, you do what you have to in order to try and win.
Rhamondre Stevenson rush attempts don’t have the same upside as Maye dropbacks, so if you’re of the belief that the Seahawks control this game, there’s room to back the MVP candidate in a few different, volume-based ways.
The Starting QBs to Combine for Over 452.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Analysis from Soppe
I’ll build on the foundation that Katz laid and take it one step further.
We’ve seen this number cleared in nine straight Super Bowls, with five clearing 500. Drake Maye completed 72% of his passes during the regular season, and Sam Darnold is flirting with 70% during the playoffs.
Efficiency is going to fuel a bet like this where I think raw attempt totals could be higher than expected due to the limitations of success on the ground (see how I keep weaving that into these angles?).
I like getting access to BOTH starting QBs in this prop to avoid script killing me. I’m with Katz in buying the Seahawks, but if I get that wrong, we get Darnold in a throwing script with access to one of the best receivers in the sport.
Things could be worse.
Super Bowl Rushing Props: Walker, Stevenson, and Henderson Picks
Drake Maye Over 6.5 Rush Attempts (-117)
Analysis from Katz
What happens when desperation sets in with everything on the line? Players try to be heroes. That’s what I expect from Maye in the Super Bowl. The Patriots will fall behind early, and Maye will do everything in his power to try and bring them back.
This is a fair line because Maye only went over 6.5 rush attempts eight times in the regular season. However, he’s had 10 rush attempts in two of his last three games, including his two highest rushing yardage totals of the season.
There’s no more playing careful because of the next game. There is no next game.
If Maye drops back to pass as much as I think he will, there will inevitably be opportunities for him to scramble and try and make a play.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Analysis from Katz
The Seahawks were even better than the Patriots this season, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game. For Rhamondre Stevenson to reach this number, he will have to either break off a big run or see heavy volume.
This is where projected game script matters. You know I think they struggle to remain competitive, and that would naturally take the “heavy volume” part of that equation out of play.
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As for the big play? Just one of his 388 carries since the beginning of last season has gone for 35 or more yards. The Patriots have committed to Stevenson not for the explosive nature of his carries, but for his ability to fall forward.
I’m expecting New England to be in a negative script for much of the second half, and if that’s the case, the chances of Stevenson getting the 16 or more carries that I think he’ll need to cost us are slim.
TreVeyon Henderson Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Analysis from Katz
Josh McDaniels has absolutely no use for TreVeyon Henderson, and that’s become more clear with each passing week. That’s not to say that he’s a bad player or won’t be of use next fantasy season, but we are evaluating a single game, and there’s not much trending in the right direction for the rookie.
Henderson had three carries for 5 yards last week, in a game where neither team wanted to throw the ball at all. In the two weeks prior, he saw more work, but 21 carries for 52 yards (15 of which came on a single attempt) isn’t exactly the type of efficiency that earns you more work.
Stevenson may not be Mr. Right for this backfield long-term, but he’s Mr. Right Now, and that has me only interested in the negative side of Henderson props.
Kenneth Walker III Under 17.5 First Quarter Rushing Yards (-110)
Analysis from Soppe
The market has bounced back and forth between 17.5 and the opening number of 18.5, and while there’s value in the larger number, I’m not sure this ends up close enough to matter.
Yes, Walker is the bellcow in an offense that is without Zach Charbonnet. Yes, he’s going to get plenty of work. Yes, he’s plenty capable of ripping off a single run that tops this number, never mind being given 15 minutes to do so.
I don’t care.
Not early at least. I touched on the limited offensive production in past Super Bowls, and with both of these teams boasting elite run defenses, I’m clearly expecting that to continue.
Walker’s projected carry count, especially if you like the favorites to win this game, is what makes his game rushing total a no play for me, but when the Pats know a run is coming (more likely early in games) and have Milton Williams active, there’s essentially nothing opposing backs can do.
From a simplistic point of view, here is how I’m projecting the first quarter to go.
Two possessions for the Seahawks. Every possession averages 5.6 plays vs the Patriots. I’ll project high and give them 12 offensive plays
Let’s assume a 50/50 playcalling (technically it’s 50.4/49.6 for Seattle this season). That means six runs and I’m fine with assuming that Walker gets five
One of every five RB runs against New England is stuffed at-or-behind the line of scrimmage. Will his other four carries average 4.5+ yards?
I say no.
Kenneth Walker III First Rush Under 3.5 Yards (-120) and Rhamondre Stevenson First Rush Under 3.5 Yards (-125)
Analysis from Katz
We can discuss these two together. This is more for fun than any sort of grand process. I’ve covered why I think both teams will struggle to run the ball.
The Patriots have opened all three of their playoff games with a straight Stevenson dive. I can assure you the Seahawks know this and will be prepared for it. Expect this game to start exactly the same way with Mike Vrabel not wanting to do anything fancy or risky. Stevenson should be met at the line of scrimmage, and hopefully he isn’t able to push the pile for more than a yard or two.
The Seahawks have only played two playoff games, but their Week 18 game against the San Francisco 49ers had a playoff atmosphere and huge implications. They opened two of those three games with a Walker run. The latest Walker saw his first carry was on the second play of the game.
Walker actually went over this number all three times. That’s also why we’re getting + money on the under.
Two of the Patriots’ three opponents opened the game passing. Even so, when they called their first run (including in the third game), all of them went for 3 yards or fewer.
Super Bowl Receiving Props: Diggs, Hollins, and Walker Bets
Kenneth Walker III Over 0.5 Receiving Yards 1Q (+110)
Analysis from Katz
This is a market I just started exploring recently, and one I will pay much more attention to next season. As we well know, offensive coordinators script their first 15ish plays of every game. That enables us to draw some conclusions about how things might go.
In each of his past three games, Kenneth Walker III has caught a first-quarter pass. And it’s not a checkdown. It’s a play designed to go to the running back, whether it be a screen, a flare route, a Texas route, or anything in between. Klint Kubiak likes to give his running back a chance to do something in open space early in every game.
Seattle’s game plan should be to pass the ball against a defense that is elite against the run. Rather than try and pound the ball up the middle, a well-coached offense, which Seattle is, should opt to utilize short passes as an extension of the run game, which bodes well for Walker’s chances of catching one in the first quarter.
Stefon Diggs’ Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (-110)
Analysis from Soppe
By title, Stefon Diggs is the WR1 on this offense, and with me projecting them to be playing from behind, it’s a little nervy to take his unders, but I couldn’t resist.
The veteran receiver is here for his savvy and chain-moving skills more so than his explosive-play potential, and that’s been increasingly evident in the postseason.
- Playoff aDOT: 5.6 yards
- Regular season aDOT: 8.7 yards
He’s something of a part-time player for this offense, and it’s been Kayshon Boutte/Mack Hollins filling the vertical role. During this run to the Super Bowl, Diggs has run 83 routes, earned 17 targets, and has a long reception of 14 yards.
I don’t think he hits this number because I don’t think the Patriots have the intention of giving him a real chance to.
Mack Hollins Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Analysis from Katz
Mack Hollins only saw two targets last week, but caught them both for 52 yards, which led the Patriots in receiving. It was also his first game back from an abdominal injury that forced him onto IR. He should be more involved this week, and again, I expect a lot of passing from the Patriots.
Every over bet starts at the same place, and that’s playing time. Hollins participated in 60.9% of New England’s snaps in Denver, a rate that was above his regular-season average, something that suggests that any injury limitations are a thing of the past.
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We are obviously hoping for more than two targets, but having the big play upside is nice. Since Week 10, Hollins caught at least three passes in all but one game, bringing his reception total (2.5, -120 for the over) very much in play if you believe the Pats are forced into a passing script like I do.
If you want a fun long-shot play that has a plausible chance of hitting, I also like Hollins’ race to 20 receiving yards at +1200 on DraftKings.
Super Bowl Team Props: Turnovers and Final Play Bets
Score on Last Play of Game No (-1800 DraftKings)
Analysis from Katz
Most of you are not going to want to lay -1800 on anything. I am “most of you.” I am more mentioning this because perhaps you can use it as a parlay piece.
This feels grossly mispriced, especially for this game.
What this essentially amounts to is whether we get a walk-off field goal. So far, only Adam Vinatieri’s game-winner in Super Bowl XXXVI ended that way. Otherwise, the only way this realistically happens is if we get overtime. So, we have three instances in 60 years.
As you well know by now, I don’t think this game will be that close. So, unless we get a garbage-time score for no reason on the game’s final play, this should hit easily.
Patriots Most Turnovers Committed (-145)
Analysis from Katz
Fumbles from position players are random. I don’t really take them into account. This is more about quarterback play.
With the expectation that the Patriots are playing from behind, Maye should be dropping back to pass a lot, in excess of 40 times. I covered why I think Maye throws an interception above. But for this one, we also have the benefit of strip sacks.
Maye fumbled the ball a total of six times against the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, losing three of them. The Seahawks got pressure on 39.9% of opposing QB dropbacks this season.
Meanwhile, Darnold threw a total of just three interceptions all season in games in which he did not reach 30 pass attempts. I don’t think he gets to 30 pass attempts due to positive game script, making the Patriots more likely to turn it over more.
