The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Pittsburgh Steelers players heading into their matchup with the Green Bay Packers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
It would be difficult for Aaron Rodgers to enter this revenge game with better fantasy vibes. The loss on Thursday night in Cincinnati wasn’t great for Pittsburgh fans, and you could argue that his two poor decisions ended up costing them dearly, but the 41-year-old threw four touchdowns, all to tight ends, and showed nice touch in the process.
Of course, it was the Cincinnati Bengals, the fantasy performance enhancer (his first top-15 finish at the position since Week 1).
Rodgers has multiple touchdown passes in four of six games this season, but he’s yet to reach 250 yards through the air, and his days of threatening defenses with his legs are long gone.
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Green Bay has been solid against starting QBs who are pocket-passer-locked (Jared Goff and Joe Flacco combined to average 4.9 YPA across three starts), and I don’t think that’s a mistake.
I’m sorry if you missed the strong showing last week, but I’d advise against chasing those points in a matchup that couldn’t be more different.
Even with six teams on a bye, Rodgers isn’t a top streaming priority for me this week.
Jaylen Warren, RB
Kaleb Johnson didn’t touch the field on Thursday night, and Jaylen Warren held a 4-to-1 touch edge over Kenneth Gainwell. I think any concerns about whose backfield this is when fully healthy are gone.
I’ll complain as much as anyone about the structure of this Pittsburgh offense, but it fits Warren, and that’s all that matters (15+ expected PPR points in three of his past four games, the exception being his first game back from injury).
With a 15+ yard touch in four of five games this season, he’s the one Steeler I trust to offer consistent upside. Sadly, he doesn’t get to face the Steelers every week.
Week 7 Rushing Profile
- 2.2 yards per carry before contact (season-high)
- 100% gain rate (first six weeks: 77.8%)
- 25% 10+ yard gain rate (first six weeks: 7.4%)
The Packers offer a much different challenge, but not nearly enough to put Warren’s status as a lineup lock in jeopardy. He’s hauled in 17-of-19 targets this season as part of an overly conservative offense that is happy to supplement some of his carries with checkdowns and designed quick hitters.
Warren is a top 15 running back for me this week and checks in as such for the remainder of this fantasy season as well.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB
Gainwell was a week winner in Dublin a few weeks back with Warren on the shelf, but it was obvious before the injury — and has been since the RB1 returned — that Arthur Smith is not labeling this a committee.
Warren handled 16 of the 19 RB carries in the upset loss to the Bengals on Thursday night and finished the evening as Pittsburgh’s third leading receiver. This isn’t an explosive offense that can support multiple backs on any consistent basis, thus relegating Gainwell to true handcuff status.
There’s value in holding onto him for now, if for no other reason than Pittsburgh has a few soft matchups heading into the fantasy playoffs. If you feel the roster crunch, I’d target the manager with Warren rostered and see what price is willing to be paid: I can’t imagine it’ll be much, but it should be better than what you can find on your waiver wire.
DK Metcalf, WR
All of the math continues to work against DK Metcalf.
Even with another nice sideline catch, he’s not being targeted with regularity down the field, and that caps his upside.
As for his floor, that’s capped by a lack of volume. He has 22 catches in six games this season, and if you tuned in late on Thursday night, it’s possible you didn’t hear his name called once until the fourth quarter (two catches in the first nine minutes, with his third coming in the fourth quarter).
He figures to draw significant attention this week from the Packers’ strong defense, and, in the past, that wouldn’t terrify me. Nothing against Green Bay, but if an offense wants to prioritize a 6’4″ athlete like Metcalf, the production has a way of finding him, even in tough spots.
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That’s not the case in Pittsburgh.
Rodgers trusts him to make the bail-out plays, but this offense isn’t built to get the best version of Metcalf.
Appreciate you, Arthur Smith.
With six teams on a bye, there’s only so much you can do here, but should he make one of those Metcalf, score-10-points-on-a-single-catch plays this week, I wouldn’t hesitate at all to cash in this chip for a receiver you think holds top 20 value the rest of the way.
Jonnu Smith, TE
Jonnu Smith scored as a part of the Pittsburgh TE bonanza on Thursday night, and now? Now it’s National TE Day.
Not interested.
Darnell Washington is getting a lot of usage thanks to his versatility in this conservative offense, and the Pat Freiermuth explosion gives the staff an excuse to increase his route count.
If I’m streaming a tight end, it’s not Smith.
If I’m streaming an AFC North tight end, it’s not Smith.
If I’m streaming a Steelers tight end, it’s not Smith.
Under 1.0 yards per route and one end zone target this season. No thanks.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
I suppose this is a name that needs to be addressed for the first time in this space because he turned six targets into 28.1 PPR points on Thursday night in Cincinnati.
Relax.
Yes, it’s a name you know, and yes, this offense is going to use the TE position to essentially serve as their WR2 role, but there’s no way to project Freiermuth as a viable option moving forward.
His first touchdown was an absolute dime from Rodgers, threading the needle in zone coverage, and the 68-yard score gave the Steelers a late lead that they’d squander. The two players were great, but it doesn’t change the fact that this man wasn’t a top-25 performer at the position for any of the first 1.5 months of the season.
It also doesn’t change the fact that he accounted for one-third of the TE targets and 35.6% of the TE routes in Week 7.
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Washington and Smith also scored (five TE TDs across both teams, the first time that had happened since 2018) and were on the field plenty.
In combing through the snap data, there seems to be no real lean. Whether you split it off by third downs, red zone snaps, or participation when trailing … everything was split pretty evenly.
We all have developed trust issues with tight ends that have no role competition; they simply just struggle to produce every week, so forgive me if I’m not jumping at the opportunity to throw a dart at a three-headed committee.
You know what happens to that? The three-dragon meme. There are two scary ones and one goofy one with its tongue sticking out. You hit the latter option.
Every. Time.
