The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Pittsburgh Steelers players heading into their matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals to help you craft a winning lineup.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers stayed consistent, continuing his every-other-game pattern of multiple TD tosses.
The scores are always lovely to get, but in this dink-and-dunk scheme, where’s the upside for a pocket-locked 41-year-old?
Realistically, there isn’t one. He’s yet to throw for 245 yards in a game and has one week of usability despite completing 68.8% of his attempts this season.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 7 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
A plus matchup and a Hall of Fame name is an enticing combination, but I’m not going this way in single-quarterback leagues if I don’t have to.
Jaylen Warren, RB
When Najee Harris left this backfield, I left my mind open to just about anything when it came to the role of Jaylen Warren.
I didn’t see him being a version of Harris with Kenneth Gainwell basically filling his previous role.
Warren is the unquestioned top ball carrier on this team, but with Gainwell recording three times as many receptions as him on Sunday, the duality that we thought would be his in 2022 really isn’t there.
Now, he has caught multiple passes in all four of his games, so let’s not make this a Derrick Henry situation, though it is clear that Aaron Rodgers is comfortable with Gainwell, and that shaves a few points off the ceiling of their RB1.
You’re starting Warren and feel great about him in a spot like this where the game script should work in his favor (my RB15), but you need to have your eyes wide open about the long-term risk in this less-than-perfect profile, especially if you think this 4-1 record comes with some smoke-and-mirrors to it.
Kaleb Johnson, RB
Kaleb Johnson got a little run in Week 4 with Jaylen Warren (knee) inactive, but the 22 yards he picked up on six carries are not likely enough to earn him anything close to a viable role when this backfield is at full strength.
Had Kenneth Gainwell fallen on his face in Ireland, maybe you could have talked me into stashing the rookie and hoping for contingent value in an offense that plays very conservatively, thus elevating the potential of their running backs.
That didn’t happen.
Johnson’s name might be one to keep in mind in dynasty formats, but in redraft leagues, his early-season struggles relegate him to waiver-wire fodder. He played just 11 snaps on Sunday and was very much an afterthought in the passing game (two routes compared to 13 for Warren and 12 for Gainwell).
Kenneth Gainwell, RB
Kenneth Gainwell had the massive Week 4 in place of Jaylen Warren, but as expected, he was back in a complementary role coming out of the bye, playing two snaps for every three that the starter handled.
His role has him carrying the rock 4-7 times per game, which isn’t enough to pique our interest, but the team-high six receptions against the Browns last weekend are enough to draw our attention.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
Gainwell has a track record of fluidity in the pass game, and he did rack up nine targets in the first two weeks this season. We know that this offense is designed to hit quickly, and in that vein, this skill set has the potential to hold standalone value when the right game script emerges.
I don’t expect that to be the case against a struggling Bengals team, but Pittsburgh does have games against the Bills, Ravens, and Lions over the final month of the fantasy season.
Gainwell is outside of my top 35 at the position this week, though he is the type of player I’m stashing with the understanding that he could bail me out of a tough spot when it matters most.
DK Metcalf, WR
That’s consecutive WR1 finishes for DK Metcalf around the Week 5 bye, and while I’m generally not buying him long-term, I do think he keeps the good times rolling in this ultra-favorable spot.
This season, no team blitzes less often than the Bengals, and when Aaron Rodgers has time to read a defense, he tends to favor his 6’4″ tank of a WR1.
Go figure.
Through six weeks, 38.2% of his non-blitzed targets have been directed toward Metcalf (blitzed: 24.5%). The anti-Metcalf argument stems from a lack of per-target upside, and I’ll stand on that soapbox after we get past this matchup … it doesn’t hold water in a spot against a bad defense where we can pencil him in for 8-10 looks.
The 25-yard touchdown against the Browns last week was seemingly a month in the making. All the film showed shallow crossing routes for Metcalf: the plan being to have Rodgers hit him in stride and let him dance.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
The touchdown on Sunday leveraged that tendency into a double move and an easy score. Combine that design with a sideline dime, and it’s very clear that the future Hall of Fame QB implicitly trusts his WR1.
Come back next week when I suggest selling high, but for Week 7, I’m in!
Jonnu Smith, TE
An ultra-conservative offense with limited depth at the receiver position should be a breeding ground for tight end production, but not all “shoulds” translate cleanly into fantasy production.
Steelers TE Data (Week 6)
-
Smith: 69% snaps, 22 routes, four targets
-
Darnell Washington: 79.3% snaps, 19 routes, five targets
-
Pat Freiermuth: 36.2% snaps, 14 routes, one target
That might be the grossest three-way split at the position in recent memory. In any committee situation (RB, WR, or in this weird case, TE), I tend to lean toward the player who does something unique.
That’s often the chain-moving receiver (consistency) or the goal-line back (single-carry potential). In this situation, it’s really quite simple: Darnell Washington is bigger than the guys being asked to tackle him.
He’s caught three passes in consecutive games, and if the plan is to get the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands quickly, why not prioritize the 264-pound mountain of a man that has defenders making business decisions?
At the end of the day, I think that if a Pittsburgh tight end is the answer to your question, you’re asking the wrong question. But if you’re hellbent on exploiting this matchup, I’m taking advantage of the Bengals’ 31st-ranked YAC allowed and taking my chances with the bully on the playground.
