Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our Week 7 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em: Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (vs. TB)
Through six weeks, Jared Goff hasn’t been quite as good as he was last season. The Detroit Lions QB is averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game, currently placing him just outside the top 12 at the position.
Goff is not an every-week starter. But he is someone worth starting in the right matchup. This is one of those matchups.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers keep finding themselves in shootouts. Their last four games have totaled 56, 56, 73, and 49 points. This is a favorable offensive environment. Additionally, the Bucs are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Goff is coming off a disappointing performance against the Kansas City Chiefs, where the Lions managed just a single touchdown in the second half. At home against a Bucs team primed for a letdown, this is an excellent spot for a bounce back.
Brock Purdy or Mac Jones, QB, San Francisco 49ers (vs. ATL)
It’s simultaneously praise for Mac Jones and an indictment of Brock Purdy that there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference between the two quarterbacks. Perhaps the bulk of the credit belongs to Kyle Shanahan’s QB-friendly system. Either way, the San Francisco 49ers QB puts up fantasy numbers.
Purdy has only managed to start two games this season due to a turf toe injury he can’t seem to shake. He’s averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game in those contests. Jones has filled in for Purdy and been almost as good, averaging 17.8 PPG. Both are viable fantasy starters.
If Purdy is ready to return this week, he will start. Jones has not taken his job. If not, it will be Jones again. Regardless of who starts, this game projects to be high-scoring.
The Atlanta Falcons have actually been incredible against quarterbacks. They represent one of the five most difficult opponents from a fantasy perspective. But we have to put their defensive performance in the proper context.
Atlanta did reasonably well against Baker Mayfield in Week 1. Then, they got to feast on JJ McCarthy and Bryce Young before a Week 4 spot against Marcus Mariota. This team hasn’t exactly faced top competition. Do not shy away from this matchup if you have a 49ers QB.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders (at DAL)
It was a disappointing outing in a favorable matchup on Monday Night Football for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Bill managed to rush 17 times for a mere 61 yards with a loss of a fumble. Not what fantasy managers were hoping for. But there were positives.
The rookie continued to dominate this backfield, playing 67% of the snaps. After his first-quarter fumble, he was not punished, showing the coaching staff’s confidence in him.
Now, he gets a Dallas Cowboys defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They just gave up over 200 total yards to Rico Dowdle.
The Commanders are undeniably motivated after a rough loss. Expect them to lay it on thick to their division rivals. JCM finds the end zone in this one.
Alvin Kamara RB, New Orleans Saints (at CHI)
Start running backs against the Chicago Bears. The analysis could really stop there, but it also helps if the running back is actually good.
Alvin Kamara is going to have the worst season of his career. He’s averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game. Even at the low bar of his previous low of 14.1 PPG in 2022, it would take significant improvement for him to get up to that number. But that doesn’t mean he’s cooked.
The issue with Kamara is essentially the New Orleans Saints offense. Spencer Rattler has exceeded expectations, but expectations were that he’d be benched for Tyler Shough by now. Not exactly a high bar.
Kamara’s 13.1% target share is excellent for running backs in general, but not for someone who has consistently been amongst the league leaders throughout his career.
While his usage hasn’t been at career high levels, it’s still be solid enough with a 68% opportunity share. Things will not be much easier than against a Bears defense that allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (vs. NYG)
It’s been a wild start to the season for Courtland Sutton. He’s been a high-end WR1 in four games and basically the worst possible player in the other two.
Last week was one of the bad ones. Sutton caught one pass for 17 yards. That was it.
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Fortunately, things should be more favorable this week. The New York Giants have been playing better overall, but they are still allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Sutton is the clear WR1 for the Denver Broncos, and the Giants should push this offense a bit more than the Jets did. Expect a bigger game from Sutton this week.
Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams (at JAX)
Davante Adams first broke out in 2016. He averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game. That marks his lowest PPG average since then…until now.
At 32 years old, Adams still looks like he has juice left, but he’s clearly not the player he once was. The future Hall of Famer is currently averaging 13.9 PPG. It’s a respectable number, but not on the level we’ve come to expect from Adams. If there were ever a week to get a vintage Packers Adams performance, though, it’s this one.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a pass funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Adding to Adams’ prospects is the high likelihood that Puka Nacua will miss this week’s game due to a sprained ankle.
This is a game where the Los Angeles Rams should rely more on the pass, as it is the best way to move the ball against the Jaguars. Matthew Stafford always locks in on his WR1. For at least one week, that is likely to be Adams.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at DET)
The Bucs are completely decimated on offense. As of the conclusion of Week 6, they are down their RB1 and their top four wide receivers. Somehow, this is not the first time this has happened.
Last season, from Weeks 7-9, the Bucs operated mainly without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It was in that Week 7 game in which both of their wide receivers got hurt. In their absence, Baker Mayfield leaned on his tight end. Cade Otton posted lines of 8-100, 9-81-2, and 8-77-1 in the three games Evans missed.
There is a chance Evans can return this week, but Godwin and Emeka Egbuka are not going to play. At worst, that puts Otton at No. 2 on the target hierarchy.
The Lions are middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, but bottom five against quarterbacks. We can expect high-end production from Mayfield. If that comes to fruition, he’s probably bringing his TE with him.
Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets (vs. CAR)
Even though we’re fading Justin Fields, that doesn’t mean Mason Taylor can’t have a bounce-back performance. Of course, no one in this passing attack was able to get going last week as Fields threw for a mere 45 yards. Things can’t possibly be worse this week.
Taylor is in a very favorable spot for a couple of reasons. First, he’s the clear TE1, playing 95% of the snaps against the Denver Broncos.
Second, Garrett Wilson is unlikely to play with a knee injury, which would potentially move Taylor up to the primary pass-catching role.
Third, Fields is liable to get benched at halftime. Tyrod Taylor would undoubtedly be an upgrade to this entire offense.
Add in the fact that the Panthers allow the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and Taylor could succeed despite an otherwise disastrous New York Jets offense.
Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns (vs. MIA)
Harold Fannin Jr. already had a standalone role in the Cleveland Browns offense that was enough to justify his spot on fantasy rosters. But the target competition and David Njoku’s presence capped his upside.
Last week, Njoku left the game with a knee injury. He tried to return, but couldn’t. That resulted in Fannin seeing an 80% snap share. The rookie tight end caught a season-high seven passes for a season-high 81 yards. Granted, most of it came in garbage time, but that still counts.
On Monday, head coach Kevin Stefanski had no update on Njoku’s status. That’s not a good sign for his availability. In all likelihood, the veteran will miss this Sunday’s game, putting Fannin into the full-time role against a Miami Dolphins defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Given Dillon Gabriel’s penchant for checking it down, Fannin is a borderline must-start if Njoku doesn’t play.
Sit ‘Em: Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants (at DEN)
Jaxson Dart is all kinds of legit. He is the New York Giants’ answer at quarterback. It is the first time since Eli Manning that the Giants actually can feel hopeful about fielding a competitive team.
If Dart can succeed against this defense, he will officially graduate to matchup-proof status. But entering his third career start, it would be incredibly risky to put him in lineups against this opponent.
The Denver Broncos’ defense is scary. They are currently allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Last week, they sacked Justin Fields nine times and limited him to 45 passing yards. Of course, Fields, being one of the worst passers in recent NFL history, played a significant role in that. But we’ve seen Fields post gaudy numbers. Denver deserves credit for their part in his career-worst effort.
Dart is currently throwing a WR corps led by Wan’Dale Robinson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence heading into hostile territory against an elite defense. Dart is a hazardous fantasy option this week.
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets (vs. CAR)
It is very, very difficult to dismiss what we saw last week. Yes, Justin Fields has three games with 27+ fantasy points. We know the elite QB1 ceiling is there. But the performance he put on in London is legitimately one of the worst in the history of not just the NFL, but any organized football.
Fields looked like he had never played football before. He refused to throw the ball. When he did throw it, his passes were consistently late, leaving his hand after the receiver was already open, so that by the time the ball got where it needed to be, the window was slammed shut.
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After the game, beat reporters naturally asked head coach Aaron Glenn whether Fields would continue to be the starter. Glenn dismissed the notion that the team would bench Fields…kind of like Brian Daboll dismissed the idea of benching Russell Wilson after Week 1.
Please make no mistake about it, Fields is not making it through the season as the starter. While the Carolina Panthers do not represent an imposing foe, they have been able to stymie unprepared quarterbacks. Michael Penix Jr. managed zero points against this team.
Fields could very well rebound. But the floor is so low. Plus, he may not get the opportunity to salvage his fantasy day with a second-half surge. If the New York Jets are struggling offensively at halftime, we may see Tyrod Taylor in the second.
Add in the fact that Garrett Wilson is unlikely to play this week, and this is a recipe for disaster.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (vs. HOU)
Zach Charbonnet could be here as well. Neither Seattle Seahawks running back is particularly good. However, Charbonnet at least offers touchdown upside as he is the goal-line back.
The split in this backfield shifted heavily in favor of Charbonnet last week. Walker played a season low and a career low with Charbonnet healthy 35% of the snaps. The team’s preference for Charbonnet in short-yardage situations and passing downs gives him the higher weekly upside.
Walker relies too heavily on splash plays. He is always looking to hit a home run and rarely takes what is blocked.
This season, Walker is seventh in the league with 24.4% of his rushes going for zero or negative yards. Ironically, Charbonnet is the worst at 31.7%, so it’s unclear why Seahawks coaches view him as the superior option.
Nevertheless, Walker is completely unstartable in his current role. He is a split backfield on early downs, doesn’t catch passes, and doesn’t get goal-line carries. How exactly is he going to score his points? He’s basically Isiah Pacheco. Against a Houston Texans defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, Walker belongs nowhere near starting lineups.
Bam Knight and Michael Carter, RBs, Arizona Cardinals (vs. GB)
Can we call it a bombshell announcement? That seems a bit much. However you want to describe it, Adam Schefter certainly shook things up on Sunday morning when he announced that the Arizona Cardinals were making a switch at running back and rolling with Bam Knight as the lead back ahead of Michael Carter.
Two weeks ago, it was all Carter, who dominated touches 23-5 over Knight. Last week, Knight was the lead back, but it was much more of an even split.
Emari Demercado’s ankle injury certainly played a factor, as his absence forced Carter into the receiving back role. Ultimately, Knight only had two more carries than Carter on five more snaps.
The value in the Cardinals’ lead stemmed from volume. In any matchup, the usage Carter saw in Week 5 is worth starting. But the Week 6 touch distribution is only viable in favorable matchups. This…is not one of them.
The Green Bay Packers allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Carter and Knight have combined for three touchdowns in the past two games. If neither scores this week, which is more probable than not, it’s hard to see how either hits double digits.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (at MIN)
This analysis applies to A.J. Brown as well, but despite his struggles, he is more trustworthy than his counterpart. DeVonta Smith has been incredibly disappointing thus far. He’s averaging a career-low 11.1 fantasy points per game.
Jalen Hurts is only targeting Smith on 18.5% of his routes run. That is, by far, a career low. As a result, Smith has been heavily dependent on game flow and splash plays. He has two games with 19.4 and 20 points. Everything else has been single digits.
There will be spike weeks. But one of them likely is not coming against this team. The Minnesota Vikings are well-rested coming off their bye and allow the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers by an extensive margin. Smith is staring down the barrel of another dismal outing.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks (vs. HOU)
That’s now back-to-back games of double-digit fantasy points for Cooper Kupp. Obviously, he’s nowhere near the player he was at his peak. But fantasy managers were still drafting him as a borderline starter.
Last week, Kupp found the end zone for the first time all season. Touchdowns tend to skew perception. This could lead fantasy managers to believe the veteran receiver is trustworthy going forward.
Kupp is still a distant second fiddle to elite WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His target share is a respectable 20.8%, but his 5.4 aDOT relegates him to essentially being a PPR scam without the volume.
This week, Kupp gets a Houston Texans defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Seattle Seahawks can’t run the ball, so there still may be a decent floor. But Kupp will likely have to find the end zone to provide a returnable value.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings (vs. PHI)
At some point, it’s time to accept that the T.J. Hockenson who averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game in 2023 might be gone for good.
It’s fair to give Hockenson a pass for his dismal 2024 season. He averaged 8.7 PPG, but also was returning from a torn ACL that limited him to 10 games. This year, that excuse does not exist.
Hockenson benefited from Jordan Addison’s three-game suspension to start the season. It didn’t help. Aaron Jones Sr. has missed three games. That didn’t help. The Minnesota Vikings TE is averaging 8.1 PPG, his worst showing since his rookie season.
This week, Hockenson gets a Philadelphia Eagles defense that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Justin Jefferson and Addison are both healthy. They are the top two targets on this team. It remains to be seen if JJ McCarthy is ready to return or if it will be another week of Carson Wentz. Either way, it’s a bad QB situation against a good defense that will be angry after getting blown out by the Giants.
