Washington prepares for their Sunday Night Football showdown against the Denver Broncos following a disappointing loss to Miami in Madrid. The Commanders’ backfield hierarchy has solidified around Chris Rodriguez, while Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s role continues to diminish. Can fantasy football managers trust either Washington runner this week?
Chris Rodriguez Fantasy Outlook
Rodriguez once again got the start and served as the clear lead back in Week 12 against Miami. He carried the ball 15 times for 79 yards while playing 45 percent of the snaps. Rodriguez looked powerful and decisive with his carries, demonstrating the physical running style that has earned him the coaching staff’s trust.
Rodriguez served as the goal line back, although he did not score against the Dolphins. Therein lies the problem with Rodriguez as a fantasy option. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, he’s probably not getting to double-digit fantasy points given his limited involvement in the passing game and the committee approach Washington employs.
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With one reception for six yards last week, Rodriguez finally caught a pass. That was his first target of the entire season, highlighting just how minimal his receiving role remains. His fantasy value depends almost entirely on touchdown production and modest rushing yardage accumulated through consistent carries.
However, as the biggest and most physical of Washington’s backs, Rodriguez has firmly established himself as the primary option in short-yardage situations where scores are most accessible. His consecutive games as the lead back suggest the Commanders have confidence in his ability to handle that workload moving forward.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Fantasy Outlook
Croskey-Merritt still managed to see nine carries in Week 12, but his snap share was firmly behind Rodriguez at just 27%. This is essentially a 50-25-25 split between Rodriguez, Croskey-Merritt, and Jeremy McNichols. The rookie’s role has been reduced to that of a complementary piece rather than a featured back.
JCM has no role in the passing game whatsoever. He is purely a between-the-20s early down runner who occasionally gets a series or two to give Rodriguez a breather. Unsurprisingly, the seventh-round pick who couldn’t even earn a combine invite has been unable to sustain the success from his Week 5 breakout performance that earned him the starting job initially.
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The Commanders turned their backfield over to the rookie in Week 6 following his explosive showing where he rushed for 111 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. Since then, it has been an unmitigated disaster for fantasy purposes. Croskey-Merritt doesn’t have anywhere near 27.0 fantasy points in every game since then combined.
Croskey-Merritt doesn’t catch passes and is not the goal line back. His snap share has declined steadily as Rodriguez has taken command of the backfield. Croskey-Merritt is being phased out of meaningful offensive snaps in favor of Rodriguez’s power running style and McNichols’ receiving abilities.
Should You Start Rodriguez or Croskey-Merritt This Week?
At this point, the only running back on the Commanders who is startable is Rodriguez. Croskey-Merritt’s role has been diminished too greatly to consider him a viable fantasy option. He doesn’t catch passes and is not the goal line back, eliminating the two primary avenues for running back fantasy production.
Rodriguez is a touchdown-or-bust RB3 option who provides goal-line upside but comes with significant risk. His complete lack of receiving work caps his floor dramatically, but his red zone role creates weekly scoring potential that makes him deployable for desperate fantasy managers.
The problem this week is the matchup. Denver presents a formidable challenge for Washington’s rushing attack. The Broncos are certainly stronger against the pass than the run, but they’re not exactly an easy team to run on. Denver allows the 11th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Broncos have won eight straight games and are riding into Washington as road favorites on Sunday Night Football. Their defense has been the catalyst for their recent success, holding opponents to fewer than 21 points in seven of their 11 games this season. Denver’s front seven makes it difficult to find running lanes, which could severely limit Rodriguez’s effectiveness.
Given that there are no teams on bye in Week 13, fantasy managers should be able to do better than Rodriguez. Unless you’re absolutely desperate at the running back position or need a boom-or-bust option to swing for the fences, Rodriguez is better left on benches this week.
Croskey-Merritt is unstartable and droppable in all but the deepest of fantasy formats. The rookie’s role has evaporated following weeks of poor efficiency and declining opportunity. Fantasy managers seeking running back help should focus exclusively on Rodriguez as the only Washington back worth considering, though even he is a risky proposition this week.
For those who must start Rodriguez, understand that you’re betting entirely on touchdown variance in a difficult matchup against a stout defensive front. If Washington can punch it in near the goal line, Rodriguez will likely get the call. But getting to that point against Denver’s defense represents a significant challenge for a Commanders offense that has struggled mightily throughout their six-game losing streak.