The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Seattle Seahawks players heading into their matchup with the Houston Texans to help you craft a winning lineup.
Sam Darnold, QB
Sam Darnold is one of those QBs whose play works better for his NFL team than fantasy ones, but we did see some marrying of the two worlds last weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars as he turned 16 completions into 295 yards and a pair of scores.
This was the fourth time in six weeks that he failed to complete more than 18 passes, and with just seven rush attempts this season, there’s essentially no room for error if you’re counting on him.
The Texans have dismantled QBs this season, but that’s as much a product of who they’ve played. I don’t think they are the ’85 Bears, but they are solid and have had an extra week to prepare for a passing attack that is pretty straightforward.
This is a tough week for the middle-tier QBs, so if you have to go this direction, I think you could do worse. The truly forward-thinking plan here might be for QB streamers to add and keep him this week.
Yes, the bye hits you in Week 8, but there are the Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans matchups in November, in addition to a game in Carolina when your fantasy league champion is being decided in Week 17.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
I don’t think I’m alone in saying that Kenneth Walker III is terrifying.
If you are facing him in fantasy or bet against Seattle, you’re immediately uncomfortable when No. 9 gets his hands on the ball.
I live in a bubble, but this seems to be a pretty widely agreed-upon take. It’s just not what this coaching staff is looking for, and until that changes, labeling him as anything more than a flex play is irresponsible.
Walker played a season-low 33.3% of the offensive snaps last week in the win over the Jaguars, and even when running well, hasn’t reached a 52% share this year.
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There’s certainly a boom/bust nature to his game (39.8% of his carries have either failed to get past the line of scrimmage or resulted in a 10+ yard gain), but isn’t that the nature of the game today?
He’d be terrible in the three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust era, but with Darnold threatening defenses on every dropback, wouldn’t some home run-hitting potential by his side be a savvy move?
I could regurgitate an updated version of the numbers that I use in this space weekly, though we know my spewing fixes nothing. Seattle is committed to this committee, and that means Zach Charbonnet (one of 60 carries this season has gained more than eight yards) is going to get enough work to make starting Walker uncomfortable.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
Charbonnet handled five of Seattle’s first seven running back carries on Sunday in Jacksonville and played a season-high 61.1% of offensive snaps.
4.7 PPR points.
It feels inevitable that Walker will take over the lead role in this offense (Charbonnet doesn’t have a 10-yard run in four of his five games this season), but in a very New Englandly type of rotation, I refuse to bet against stubborn head coaches.
This isn’t a good spot, though we know Charbonnet is going to get his 12-14 touches. You’re chasing a touchdown in playing him, but there are worse ways to do that than with a player who seems to have the unconditional loyalty of his coaches.
Cooper Kupp, WR
Cooper Kupp had his longest catch of the season AND scored on a different play.
He still didn’t finish the week as a top 20 performer at the position.
Darnold is playing at a high level, and it’s because he’s comfortable giving Jaxon Smith-Njigba every chance to thrive. This team looks good, but they are doing it without a WR2 that is close to fantasy lineups, and I’m not sure that changes as the season wears on for the 32-year-old.
That’s now three times in six weeks in which Kupp has failed to earn more than three looks, and that’s not going to get it done. Kupp can be rostered, but he doesn’t need to be, and you’d have a real hard time selling me as a part of your flex conversation.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
The game just looks easy for some of the greats, and so far this season, that’s been the case for Smith-Njigba.
He’s scored in three of four games (in the one he didn’t, he provided the game-breaking play) and has 8+ grabs on four occasions. On Sunday, he was the only Seahawk with a catch on the first three drives (four for 56), and that somehow isn’t even what has impressed me most.
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JSN averaged 10.0 yards per catch as a rookie and 11.3 last season. This year, he’s up to 16.6 thanks to a splash play every single week (36+ yard reception in all six games). He’s pacing to accomplish the rare feat of increasing his big-play profile without compromising his catch rate (75% catch).
At this point, even some regression wouldn’t remove Smith-Njigba from the top 10 at the position moving forward.
Tory Horton, WR
It’s easy to look at the Kupp tape and talk yourself into a promising rookie taking his WR2 role away, but it’s just not happening. Tory Horton was a high-volume receiver at Colorado State, but with nine catches on 99 routes as a pro, we don’t have any proof of concept at this level.
Kupp hasn’t exactly been productive, so the fact that Horton hasn’t emerged should be all redraft managers need to see. The veteran likely won’t be much worse moving forward, which means this version of the rookie is what we are stuck with for the remainder of 2022.
You can move on here. We will revisit things in August.
A.J. Barner, TE
It’s been over a month since the last time a target to A.J. Barner hit the ground, and he has a touchdown or a 20+ yard reception in five straight.
There are volume concerns, and that much is obvious. He’s cleared three targets in a game just once this season, and if not for an outlier 61-yard gain in Jacksonville last week, he would have been useless.
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That said, Darnold is playing at a high level right now, and streaming a tight end attached to that isn’t a terrible idea. I’m not committing to him long-term in any way (yet to run 25 routes in a game this season), but what is the tight end position but speed dating?
If you have him, I probably hold for this week and then cut ties to move on to the next TE with touchdown upside in Week 8 with Seattle going on bye.
