The New Orleans Saints enter Week 1 with several intriguing fantasy football options that present both opportunities and concerns for managers. With a favorable matchup against Arizona’s defense, the Saints’ offensive players are poised to deliver solid production, despite questions surrounding the team’s overall consistency. Fantasy football managers will need to weigh the upside potential against the inherent risks when making their Week 1 lineup decisions.
Alvin Kamara, RB
Fantasy football is a weekly game. While I was down on Alvin Kamara during the drafting process this summer and remain skeptical about his performance over the next four months, I’m playing him without a second thought in Week 1. I am even leaning toward using him in my primary DFS lineup.
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off their best defensive season of the past three years, a 2024 campaign that saw them rank 27th. Yes, the 27th is their best showing in recent memory. This is a plus-matchup until proven otherwise, and it doesn’t matter who is taking snaps under center.
My season-long fade of Kamara stems from a lack of faith in this offense’s weekly consistency, concerns about his availability as the touches pile up, and a general lack of efficiency.
Alvin Kamara with the most Alvin Kamara play ever for his FOURTH TD
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/kQx1vM7g6Q
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 15, 2024
I stand by all those points, but none may be a factor in the season opener. The matchup is as soft as you could ask for, as the Cardinals opened their draft with five straight defensive investments. Those picks could pay off with time, but will likely need some seasoning before any of that upside is realized. Plus, there hasn’t been a better bet for early-season volume than AK41.
Since 2019, in Weeks 1-6, Kamara has averaged:
- 21.3 touches per game
- Over 15 touches in 89.7% of games
- Over 15 expected PPR points in 82.8% of games
- 20 or more touches in 65.5% of games
For the 2025 season, this discussion will be heavily impacted by quarterback Tyler Shough, Father Time, and maybe even Kendre Miller, who is the clear-cut handcuff after New Orleans trimmed its running back depth chart. For Week 1, however, I expect none of that to matter. Kamara should, at the very least, get enough volume to produce viable numbers across all formats.
Chris Olave, WR
The Chris Olave discussion was interesting this summer, and I suspect it’ll be a hot-button one as the season progresses. He’s a high-pedigree player with his best days (hopefully) ahead of him, but he’s at the mercy of what projects as a broken offense.
Through three seasons, Olave’s per-17-game yardage average is 1,119, a very respectable total when you consider that the average QB+ rank of Derek Carr over those three seasons was nothing more than ordinary (17th).
The problem is that we aren’t the least confident that New Orleans will get QB17-level play this season. Does the quarterback’s play impact his fantasy value more than the perceived talent? Do they cancel each other out and make his low-end WR3 ADP accurate?
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
The truth is that we need some data points before making an educated guess on this front. I’m tempted to trust his lead role over stars in decline (Cooper Kupp/Stefon Diggs types), other receivers with question marks under center (Jerry Jeudy and Calvin Ridley), or even players in new spots up against a tough opponent (George Pickens).
I’m cautiously optimistic that you’ll get a nice return on your Olave investment, and who am I to say that he can’t show some upside this week with time to operate (Arizona: eighth-lowest pressure rate in 2024).
Rashid Shaheed, WR
Last season, it took 10.5 points to be in the mix for a flex spot in a three-WR PPR league. How many times in his three NFL seasons do you think Rashid Shaheed has hit that mark in consecutive weeks?
Twice.
Both instances came last season. I like his film as much as anyone and want to be in on him, but until we see this offense sustain one viable receiver, let alone two, I’m living in a world of doubt.Â
They have the option of handing the ball to Kamara, and I’m not sold on him living up to his ADP. Shaheed has NFL-level tools and is proven capable of taking the top off defenses. However, the problem with that skill set is that it is easier to take away when you don’t feel threatened by the offense as a whole.
That’s the case in New Orleans and figures to be so for most, if not all, of the 2025 season.
