The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Baltimore Ravens players heading into their matchup with the Los Angeles Rams to help you craft a winning lineup.
Derrick Henry, RB
Oh boy, what are we supposed to do here?
Derrick Henry has been more Pawn than King over the past month, failing to clear 50 rushing yards in four straight games and turning 46 carries into just 148 yards, after opening the season with an effort against the Bills that saw him pick up 169 yards on 18 attempts.
He has failed to gain a single yard before contact in two games this season, and that’s going to make life difficult for any player, I don’t care how big and scary you are.
As far as the matchup is concerned, this is a tough spot. Jonathan Taylor and McCaffrey both needed heavy involvement to pay off, something that obviously isn’t in the cards for Henry. In terms of traditional RB production, the Rams are far from a get-right opponent, especially with a long week of preparation.
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
You risk leaving a huge day on your bench if you elect to sit Henry, and all you have to do is ask Chase managers how that feels. I’m not overly optimistic that we get a vintage performance, but there is touchdown equity to chase and single-play upside to consider.
I don’t have any rosters where I have enough depth to realistically bench Henry, and I’m guessing that’s likely the case for you as well, unless you struck gold with Javonte Williams late and/or Bill Crosby-Merritt.
We are in this together. Let’s create some holes and get some downhill running as Baltimore looks to save their season ahead of the bye.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
DeAndre Hopkins has made a vintage grab in three of five games this season, and that’s great for the highlight reels, but with just nine targets earned this season and an offense in disarray, this isn’t how an optimal fantasy manager builds depth.
Even if you want to buy Hopkins’ stock, now isn’t the time. Baltimore has their bye coming up, and if push comes to shove, you may have to cut ties sooner than later.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
If you’re a Hopkins truther, take inventory of your team this time next week, with the Ravens off and no attention being paid to him. They come out of the off week with the Bears and Dolphins, a soft landing spot if you believe that Todd Monken leans into the veteran to help dig them out of this hole.
That’s not my approach. Hopkins is fine to leave in free agency because I think there isn’t much role upside. He’s a situational big-play threat in a run-first offense.
Rashod Bateman, WR
Rashod Bateman was shut out during the Cooper Rush experience, and that wouldn’t terrify me if it were a one-off, but it was the fourth time in five games this season in which he’s been held under 25 receiving yards.
In a shootout with the Lions in Week 3, Baltimore’s secondary WR was productive (5-63-1), but that’s very much the outlier and not the norm. The former first-round pick is five years into his career and hasn’t proven himself as a target earner in any capacity.
Bateman should be on your waiver wire, regardless of who is taking snaps for Baltimore.
Zay Flowers, WR
The 1-4 Ravens have plenty of issues at the moment, but their WR1 has cleared 12 PPR points in four of five after managing to land a chunk play in this Cooper-led offense last weekend against the Texans (56-yard catch that he found a way not to score on).
Zay Flowers is seeing a career-high 36.1% of his targets come deep downfield this season, and while that brings about upside, the risk grows if Baltimore is playing from behind and opponents are shading against the splash gains.
I’m enjoying the ride while it lasts, but be aware that this is a rather flimsy house of cards. Flowers has just six red zone touches since the beginning of last season and has seen his target rate tank with each passing season.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
-
2023: Targeted on 19.7% of red zone routes
-
2024: Targeted on 12.3% of red zone routes
-
2025: Targeted on 8.3% of red zone routes
I have him ranked as a low-end WR2/high-end flex in PPR formats because I’m not expecting anyone to subtract from his target count. That said, the targets these days aren’t as valuable as he hoped, and given that this team ranks 31st in average time of possession, there’s more room for regression than growth in terms of opportunity count.
Isaiah Likely, TE
One target on 31 routes since returning to action in Week 4 is nothing to write home about, but at least he’s getting on the field and running a route on 67.4% of his offensive snaps.
The athletic profile is superior to that of Mark Andrews, and the Ravens are nearing desperation mode. I don’t think you can use either Baltimore tight end while Lamar Jackson is banged up.
Still, after the Week 7 bye, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Isaiah Likely is ahead of Mark Andrews in the hierarchy of this offense and the secondary pass catcher in an above-average offense.
The time to buy is nearing, but not just yet, not with the bye looming and roster slots so valuable.
Mark Andrews, TE
We’ve got a problem here.
The touchdown regression was always going to be a red flag, and that’s paying off outside of the one big game. With Likely now splitting reps, Mark Andrews is sitting outside of my starting tier at the position.
Forget for a moment the mess that is this offense without Lamar Jackson. Over the past two weeks, Andrews has out-targeted Likely 11-1 and has a whopping 14.2 PPR points in what might be the biggest usage edge he has at the position for the rest of the season.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 6 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
He’s earning targets ahead of Likely, for now. We know he’s not an opportunity vacuum, so the fact that the on-field metrics are tight (Andrews leads 53-46 in snaps and 37-31 in routes) tells me that we’ve been fortunate to get what little we have over the past two weeks (52 yards).
OK, now you can stop forgetting about the Jackson injury.
That’s obviously a real thing. Zay Flowers had five catches, and the Texans had three. Outside of that, nobody caught more than two passes from Cooper Rush on Sunday despite a game script that was entirely out of hand.
