The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Las Vegas Raiders players heading into their matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Geno Smith, QB
Geno Smith left a few plays on the field last week, but that’s what happens when you’re sacked 10 times and, as a result, a little quick on the trigger. There was a potential 65-yard Tre Tucker touchdown that could have been, and if that had happened, maybe he would be more on the two-QB radar, but it didn’t, and I’d rather not look in this direction in any sense.
Pressured dropbacks aren’t an occurrence so much as a lifestyle for Smith these days. Of the 40 qualified QBs through 12 weeks, he ranks 32nd in pressured pass TD% and 33rd in pressured INT%.
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We are asking a lot of Smith to support Brock Bowers as a top-5 tight end; let’s not push the envelope and ask for anything more.
Ashton Jeanty, RB
Ashton Jeanty is averaging just 0.54 yards per carry before contact, and that’s resulted in the worst gain% among qualified RBs this season (69.9%). We’ve seen flashes of the upside, but in terms of the ground game, this season has primarily been a disservice to the rookie.
That said, I love what we’ve seen in the passing game, something that this team wasn’t sold on early.
- September: 9.3% of touches were receptions
- October: 15.7% of touches were receptions
- November: 28.6% of touches have been receptions
That change in usage makes Jeanty a roster lock, even in a sub-par offense that can’t keep opponents out of the backfield. Take it a step further and, if this usage trend continues for the final month of the season, I’ll label this season as a net win for Jeanty’s fantasy stock.
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No, not in terms of return on investment, that ship has sailed. But I do think we’ve seen him do enough as a runner to prove he is the high-level prospect moving forward we expected, and the fluidity in the passing game we saw early in his college career holds up at the professional level.
For those looking to lock in lineups early, note that we are tracking a minor ankle injury. It was reported late last week, and the initial information doesn’t sound too worrisome, but consider slotting him into your flex for now to keep your options open during this unique week.
Brock Bowers, TE
If you’re looking at the box score and see 11.5 PPR points from Bowers last week, you’re likely indifferent to it. Goodbye TE standards, but not the type of ceiling you hope for from a player like this that you spent up on back in August.
Don’t get greedy.
Smith led his team to 10 points on Sunday, the exact number of times he was sacked by a Browns pass rush that was living in the backfield. To get out of dodge with a usable week was an excellent result for you, and with 6+ catches (9+ targets) in three of four games since returning, I think you’re going to be just fine.
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The scoring equity has been an issue and will remain so as long as this franchise lacks direction at quarterback. Bowers had the TD hat trick in his return to action against the Jags, but that’s the only game this season in which he has caught a touchdown pass.
The usage will be elite, but the production will be more of the “good” variety moving forward. He’s a starter, no question, but not the elite option you were hoping him to be.
Michael Mayer, TE
You’re late to the party if you’re reading this, but Michael Mayer can be dropped without hesitation.
On Sunday, Bowers ran nine routes for every one of his, and Ian Thomas actually worked ahead of Mayer in terms of routes and targets against the Browns.
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This offense is a mess on too many levels to count, and sustaining two viable tight ends is something even the top units struggle with. Mayer’s contingent value isn’t nearly high enough to justify holding: If Bowers were to get hurt, you get access to a marginal player in a Smith-led offense.
Is that really worth waiting for?