The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Las Vegas Raiders players heading into their matchup with the Dallas Cowboys to help you craft a winning lineup.
Geno Smith, QB
We’ve seen Geno Smith clear 280 yards with at least three passing scores in two games this season, where they were forced to play in a hyper-aggressive manner with the opponent putting points on the board, so the odds of him putting up viable numbers on Monday night are non-zero.
But I wouldn’t label them as much higher than that.
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He completed six vertical passes in the Week 3 loss in Washington and has just six such completions since (15 attempts). Consider this: Brock Bowers had the game of the year in Week 9, and Smith finished that week 1.5 points away from not being a top 10 performer for the week.
Outright dismissing anyone against the Cowboys is crazy talk, but if the Raiders score in bulk on Monday, I expect it to be via the ground game and Ashton Jeanty.
Don’t get cute.
Ashton Jeanty, RB
The rushing volume has been there from the jump, and his target share is trending toward what it should have been all along (6.5% through Week 4, but 15.8% since). But the supporting cast makes it hard to get too excited about a player in Jeanty, whom we view as a potentially generational RB.
The average NFL running back gets hit behind the line of scrimmage roughly 25% of the time. Jeanty’s rate sits at 32.2% through 10 weeks, and with Smith unable to back defenses off the line of scrimmage, why would we expect that to change?
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Jeanty has found the end zone in three of his past four games thanks to his raw talent, but don’t take those fantasy point totals as an excuse to label this rookie as a safe option.
The Vegas Raiders offer the lowest offensive floor of any team in the NFL. This matchup is golden, and if/when an elite talent like this has a big game in a primetime spot, the reflex is to overreact.
I’m getting ahead of that. The upside in anything but elite matchups is capped, and after this week, there’s no other above-average spot for the Raider run game until after Christmas.
Tyler Lockett, WR
Tyler Lockett led the Raiders in catches, targets, and receiving yards in Denver on Sunday night, Vegas’ first game sans Jakobi Meyers.
That’s running about as hot as you can hope … he didn’t reach 10 PPR points.
His 58.6% snap share was his second-highest of the season, and he should sustain a role, but it’s plenty reasonable to think that the 2-7 Raiders lean into their youth at the position. Even if that doesn’t happen, I’m comfortable guessing that there won’t be many more 12% target-share games for Bowers moving forward.
My boss asked me last week if a Raider receiver needed to be included in the weekly preview. My answer was no then, and it is no now, but I like my job, so I’ll throw him a bone.
Brock Bowers, TE
Make it make sense.
- Week 9: 80% snap share, 39.6% slot rate, 7.0 aDOT
- Week 10: 82.8% snap share, 39.6% slot rate, 10.0 aDOT
Variance happens, so I wouldn’t expect identical numbers in those games, but 43.3 in the former and 3.7 in the latter?
Bowers is healthy, and that’s great, but all pass catchers are, to some degree, dependent on the play they get under center, and Smith is a hot mess right now.
I don’t think the Jakobi Meyers trade was to blame for the dud performance, though I do think there is something to be said for the increase in two-tight-end sets, which creates more competition for similar targets.
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Of course, if the Raiders are going to average 5.3 yards per pass and go scoreless for the final 48 minutes of the game, it’s going to be an uphill climb for everyone. This matchup is the direct opposite of what Vegas saw in Denver (even without Patrick Surtain) on Thursday night.
There is no actionable here. You can’t escape the Smith vortex, and we have proof that Bowers can produce despite limitations under center. The rest-of-season projection is obviously somewhere between the best player in the sport and not a top 15 option at the position, but I don’t think this is the last violent swing in production that we see.
If you’re a matchups person and you can still trade, you’re hoping for another spike game on Monday night and pivoting. The Raiders face the Browns, Chargers, Broncos, Eagles, and Texans from Weeks 12-16, a stretch that could see them post another game (or two or three) similar to what we saw this past week.
Bowers is great, but he is still human.
Michael Mayer, TE
Michael Mayer has low-end TE1 appeal if Bowers is inactive for any given week, but with the super sophomore seemingly at full strength, there’s no reason to burn a roster spot on his backup.
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Over the past two seasons, Mayer has turned 59 targets into just 311 yards and one touchdown: he’s not a lineup lock without Bowers, and he certainly doesn’t profile as the type who will take work off the starter’s plate in a meaningful way.