The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 16, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or merely a case of growing pains.
This Saturday night brings two showdowns that are worthwhile. The Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles-Washington Commanders matchups could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both NFC powerhouse pairs. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 16 performance.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love, QB
Jordan Love accounted for over 300 yards of offense against the Broncos on Sunday (276 passing and 29 rushing), but his growth seems to have hit a bit of a lull.
Exactly zero of his 23 touchdown passes this season have come when pressured, and he hasn’t been as potent in years past in those play-action spots, a critical component of this Packers offense that features Josh Jacobs.
YPA, Play-Action
- 2023: 9.5 yards
- 2024: 8.9 yards
- 2025: 7.9 yards
It sounds like the Christian Watson chest injury isn’t going to result in much, if any, missed time, and that’s huge when it comes to how teams defend this offense. We saw Love spread the ball around in this matchup two weeks ago (17-of-25 for 234 yards and three touchdowns against one interception) with seven of his teammates earning 2-4 targets and three of them notching a 20+ yard gain.
The Bears looked like a competent defense last week against a limited Browns defense, but they rank in the bottom 7 in both YPA and air yards per throw against when evaluating this season as a whole. Love should expose these flaws in this game, which has huge postseason ramifications.
Sign me up for Love posting his fifth top-7 finish of the season.
Emanuel Wilson, RB
An illness resulted in Emanuel Wilson being added to the Week 15 injury report on Saturday, and while he was active, he touched the ball just twice against the Broncos. He was on the field for just 19% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, ranking behind Chris Brooks in the complementary role next to Jacobs.
At no point this season have the Packers shown an interest in dividing their backfield work, and with the RB1 spoken for with no setbacks suffered in Week 15, there’s no reason to roster a second RB1 in the land of the cheese.
Josh Jacobs, RB
A slight level of panic was swirling around the fantasy group chats I’m a part of, as Jacobs (knee) missed practice time during the week.
All of that stress was for nothing as Green Bay’s bellcow scored a pair of touchdowns and totaled 92 scrimmage yards against Denver. He had an ankle-breaking 40-yard TD run, and that wasn’t even the highlight of his afternoon.
Jacobs’ impact as a pass catcher has been up and down, but his TD catch on Sunday will be featured in the season recap hype video for the Packers. He completed a contested play in the end zone from 14 yards out, leaving Tony Romo to praise his “Randy Moss hands”.
OK, that might be overdoing it, but you get the idea. He looked great physically, and with the defense now in a pinch after Micah Parsons was lost for the season, look for Green Bay to try to ride No. 8 to a victory this week.
He’s averaging 19.3 touches per game in 2025, and I’d bet the “over” on that total in this spot in the oldest rivalry in the spot. Jacobs (86 yards and a TD in Week 14 against these Bears) is my RB9 for Week 16.
Christian Watson, WR
There are many moving pieces here, but the most important advice I can offer is to stay attuned to the situation.
Watson was injured on a deep pass last week, a ball that Patrick Surtain picked off, while Watson hit the cold field without the ability to brace himself.
The team ended up labeling it as a chest injury, and they actually sent him to the local hospital to get checked out for lung damage, but he cleared the needed steps and traveled home with the team.
He was able to avoid serious injury, though that doesn’t mean he is a lock to play on Saturday. He’s appeared in just 46 games across his four NFL seasons, so it’s not as if we have the picture of health here, and as much as I hate the Green Bay WR depth chart (too many similar players without an actual top threat), they are uniquely positioned to withstand an absence should they need to.
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As of right now, I’ve got Watson on the wrong side of questionable and carrying too much risk to count on. That said, you will have a clear picture of his status ahead of time due to the early kickoff of this game, and that helps.
It was just two weeks ago that he turned four targets into 89 yards and a pair of scores in this very matchup. That’s not to say he’s a must-play, should he be active, but more of a reminder that this aerial attack can have success in this critical spot.
Jayden Reed, WR
Jayden Reed has caught nine of 10 targets with a 6.7 aDOT in his two games back from injury, and while the production hasn’t leapt off the page, the foundation for a strong finishing kick has been laid.
Against the Broncos last week, he saw his snap share rise from 48.1% to 65.1%, allowing him to clear 30 routes run for just the fifth time in his career. I think there’s a stable floor that most don’t associate with Reed that you can count on, and in this matchup, some sneaky levels of scoring equity (CHI: 22nd in red zone defense and 25th in opponent short pass TD%).
Last week, the Packers were doomed in the eyes of the media following the Micah Parsons injury. If you’re asking me to write the Week 16 headlines before kickoff, I’d say that something along the lines of “Packers Send a Message vs Bears, Reed All About It” could fill your feed.
I’ve got him ranked ahead of DK Metcalf, Rashee Rice, and Justin Jefferson this week.
It’s been a weird year.
Matthew Golden, WR
In case it wasn’t clear, we are onto 2026 with Matthew Golden.
He can stick around the very back of your roster if we receive negative news about Watson’s (chest) status. Still, even then, we are talking more about blocking your opponent from upside than a player you’re actually considering clicking into your lineup.
If not for the Watson injury against the Broncos, Watson would have finished fifth among Packers receivers in routes run, as he continues to be an afterthought. He did have a 16-yard grab down the middle in the first quarter last week, a nicely executed timing play, but we are talking about isolated plays rather than a behavioral pattern.
It’s been an uneven rookie season for the burner, and this wrist injury isn’t helping. There’s a world in which he’s an interesting pick in the second half of drafts this August, but you can stop wishcasting a big game in 2025 at this point.
Romeo Doubs, WR
Romeo Doubs has disappeared during the Watson breakout, so when the vertical threat left Sunday with a chest injury, I allowed myself to get momentarily excited for my Doubs shares.
It doesn’t sound like the Watson injury is going to linger (though you never know with him), and that means Doubs is back to being a WR4 that you hold on your bench and only play if you’re desperate.
I do expect the Packers to challenge 30 points on Saturday, making him a decent dart through if you’re in a bind, but not a WR that I’m looking to play with confidence.
The 26-yard grab in the first quarter was a reminder of what is possible if Doubs is featured. He got behind his defender, and Love had enough confidence in him to fire an out-platform throw his way.
He’s an above-average receiver in a below-average situation, and in this case, the situation wins out more often than not.
Luke Musgrave, TE
Luke Musgrave is coming off a game against the Broncos in which he set season highs in receptions (four) and targets (six). Love put a little too much on a longer pass, but his tight end was able to help him out with a diving grab that resulted in a gain of 26 yards.
He’s not Tucker Kraft, but in an offense that lacks a true WR1, he’s valuable to the Packers.
For fantasy managers, I’m less sold.
The lack of an elite target earner sounds good, but it also means that there are a handful of receivers vying for targets as opposed to a situation in Los Angeles, where Colby Parkinson has a very defined role.
He was able to thrive over the weekend in part because Denver is capable of dictating where the opposition throws the ball by where the plant Patrick Surtain. Few defenses have that potential, and that has me expecting us to be back in the 2-4 target role for Musgrave this weekend.
At this point, I’d rather play him over either Baltimore tight end, but that’s about it when we are talking about the TEs that are rostered with regularity: This isn’t a player I’m going out of my way to stream.
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams, QB
Less is more.
Caleb Williams hasn’t completed more than 20 passes in any game during this 6-1 stretch, and he is in an interesting spot to avenge the one misstep over that stretch.
Week 14 Splits at Packers
- When Pressured: 25% complete (season: 38.1%)
- When Not Pressured: 69.6% complete (season: 66.2%)
Those are interesting splits given the Micah Parsons injury. I was impressed by what I saw early last weekend against the Browns (first half: 12-of-18 for 190 yards and a touchdown with five different players seeing multiple targets). While the rushing impact has been a bit muted of late (five straight without three fantasy points scored on the ground), we see his mobility on full display weekly.
I’ve got Williams ranked as QB11 this week. I think he has top-5 upside in this game, should the Green Bay defense take a massive step back. I also think the floor is pretty stable, given his confidence in executing the Ben Johnson system.
The Rome Odunze situation requires close monitoring. Williams found DJ Moore for a pair of TDs last week, though the second one was walking a thin line between genius and reckless. If he can have his WR1 back in the mix this week, he’ll move up in my rankings, ahead of his counterpart.
D’Andre Swift, RB
De’Andre Swift picked a heck of a time to record his first multi-TD game of the season, carrying 18 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns last week.
The Kyle Monangai factor is real (43.8% snap share last week), but Swift had a six-yard TD on the second drive and, up to that point, he had accounted for every Bear rushing attempt.
This is a committee situation, though I do feel good about the hierarchy. Swift turned 16 touches into 82 yards against these Packers two weeks ago, and he should be able to replicate that against a unit that is now adjusting to life with Micah Parsons.
Kyle Monangai, RB
Williams is the obvious answer when it comes to which Bear stands to benefit the most from the Micah Parsons injury, but Monangai might be second on that list.
He carried 14 times for 57 yards in the first meeting with the back, and with him holding the bruising role of this committee-ish situation, he figures to have more blocking help this time around, as they won’t have to allocate as many resources to Green Bay’s game-wrecker.
Monangai has fallen into the 37-47% snap share bucket in seven of his past nine games, and that’s meant 11-15 touches in four of his past five. The ceiling isn’t all that high, but I do expect him to handle the work inside the 10-yard line of a game that could see 50 points scored.
I have D’Andre Swift ahead of him, but even if more of a secondary role, he cracks my top 30 at the position.
DJ Moore, WR
Moore caught first and third-quarter touchdowns in Chicago’s steamrolling of Cleveland last week, and while I think he can hover around the flex radar with Odunze banged up, I’m proceeding with caution.
He led the Bears in routes last week, but both emerging rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) were targeted on a higher percentage of their routes in Week 16. The 22.9 PPR points from last week, likely left on your bench, are encouraging, but I’d resist the urge to chase them blindly.
I don’t mind this matchup, I’m just not sold that this offense is in the business of featuring him consistently. Last week was his second multi-TD effort of the season, and do you remember what happened in the two games following the previous one?
- 8 targets
- 13 yards
- 3.3 PPR points
Luther Burden III, WR
There is an ankle injury to track here, but with a “day-to-day” tag and the biggest game of the season on deck, I’m hoping that the rookie finds his way onto Soldier Field this weekend.
6+ Targets, 65+ Receiving Yards In Weeks 14 And 15
- CeeDee Lamb
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Puka Nacua
- Jameson Williams
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Luther Burden
That’s some impressive company to keep. The reporting around Odunze doesn’t come with a ton of optimism, and that opens the door for Burden to lead highlight shows.
He was on the right side of a 40-yard missile from Williams last week and was responsible for five of the team’s first 12 receptions against the Browns. We could see a similar rate of involvement on Saturday against a Packers defense that is allowing the third-highest completion percentage on balls thrown past the sticks this season and figures to provide even less resistance sans Micah Parsons.
If you told me that you wanted to start Burden over Rashee Rice, Justin Jefferson, or DeVonta Smith, I’m not going to stand in your way.
Rome Odunze, WR
Odunze missed last week with a foot injury, but there was an optimistic tone in reports of his status for Week 15 throughout the week.
That is, until five minutes before the game against the Bears, when he was ruled out after being initially cleared due to a setback during pregame warmups.
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Just a brutal outcome for fantasy managers who had the second-year receiver penciled into their lineups. He scored in four straight games to open 2025, but he’s scored in just one game since and has reached 55 receiving yards just once since October.
It’s hard to imagine feeling good about playing him in the cold this weekend, even if he’s deemed healthy. If this were a Jaxon Smith-Njigba type of situation where the target share was elite every week, I’d say to trust the role and take your chances, but this Bears team runs two-deep around Odunze at every skill position (running back, wide receiver, and tight end).
With just 13 catches over his past five games, the ceiling you’re chasing isn’t reflective of what we’ve seen recently.
Cole Kmet, TE
Cole Kmet caught two of three targets for 42 yards in the Week 14 meeting with the Packers in Lambeau, and that’s actually on the high end of what I’d expect this weekend as the Bears continue to transition toward Colston Loveland as the TE they put in a fantasy-friendly spot.
Since Week 11, the rookie has 20 more routes and nine more targets than Kmet despite 26 fewer offensive snaps, a sign that while we are getting snap splits, the responsibilities aren’t the same.
Kmet scored against the Cowboys in Week 3 and has found paydirt just once since: there’s little volume to chase here and even less scoring equity.
Colston Loveland, TE
The presence of Kmet (and three capable receivers, not to mention versatility in the backfield) leaves Loveland outside of my top 10 at the position this week. Still, he’s in that conversation, and given the trajectory, I could see going in this direction as an upside play over the Dalton Schultzes of the world, whose value is in stability.
Loveland has earned at least five targets in four straight games, and we saw him score on these Packers just two weeks ago. In that loss, Kmet had a pair of catches that gained 15+ yards, plays that easily could go the rookie’s way this time around (17+ yard reception in six of his past eight games).
If you were starting Travis Kelce or riding the Jake Ferguson express early in the season, I could very much see (and have it ranked this way) you pivoting off of them in favor of Chicago’s impressive first-year playmaker.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts, QB
The only thing Jalen Hurts did wrong on Sunday was be too good.
The Eagles built a 31-point lead through three quarters, and that led to him being spelled by Tanner McKee for the final 15 minutes.
Before departing, Hurts was everything you drafted him to be. He was a willing runner (seven carries for 39 yards), hit both of his standout WRs for a 30+ yard gain, and was efficient when looking the way of Dallas Goedert (six catches on seven targets and the lone incompletion was a touchdown drop by his TE).
Two of his three passing scores were a product of those goofy forward pitches, but those sorts of lanes open up when you threaten the defense in a variety of ways.
The raw fantasy numbers could have been better if he played the fourth quarter, and that’s a tough pill to swallow if you got sent home. If not, all systems go as Hurts looked as good as he has all season. This is the first of two meetings with a vulnerable Commander’s defense in three weeks, a defense that he ran for three scores against in the NFC Title game last season.
I no longer think Hurts has the weekly ceiling that Josh Allen does, but he remains a strong fantasy asset, even if the range of outcomes has been more than you bargained for.
Saquon Barkley, RB
The plan was simple: Eight touches for Saquon Barkley on the first drive.
That doesn’t happen by accident, and with him adding his sixth rushing score of the season in the second quarter, Barkley was able to do enough to justify starting him, even if the efficiency remains a battle (3.5 yards per carry against the Raiders, 3.9 this season).
The touchdown was his shortest of the season and a friendly reminder that this offense isn’t 100% reliant on the Tush Push inside of the 5-yard line.
The starters for Philadelphia didn’t play in the fourth quarter, thus making his 24 touches all the more impressive. The significant play potential pretty clearly isn’t what it was a season ago, but if the volume is going to be this stable (17+ touches in seven of his past eight), he’s going to hit your lineup with consistency.
If there’s a spot for him to have a ceiling game, this is it. Barkley enters this week having scored multiple touchdowns in each of his past four against the Commanders.
A.J. Brown, WR
Philadelphia blew out the Raiders and benched their regulars in the fourth quarter of a game where AJ Brown didn’t record a catch in the first half.
If that were all you knew about Week 15, you’d feel blessed to see 12.1 PPR points in your box score.
The Eagles simply weren’t pushed. On the few occasions where they elected to be aggressive, they delivered, and that allowed Brown to get into your boxscore with a 27-yard TD.
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From the glass-is-half-full department, Brown’s average touchdown length has been over 21 yards every season of his career, and 2025 is no different. His 62.7% catch rate is far from ideal and is a result of his aDOT being as high as it’s been since his rookie season.
That said, he torched these Commanders last season (8-97-1 in the December meeting and 6-96-1 in the NFC Title game), and thanks to the impact he can make in your matchup via a single play, he’s a lineup lock.
The range of outcomes is just something you have to deal with.
DeVonta Smith, WR
Over the past four weeks, DeVonta Smith has had catches of 28, 30, 41, and 44 yards.
That feels like I’m setting up a positive note, but I’ve got a heel turn for you.
He’s WR36 on a per-game basis over that stretch.
He’s been hitting on one chunk play and then disappearing. Last week was a little different because of the blowout, but in the two weeks prior, he caught nine of 16 targets and saw 68.2% of his receiving yards come on two plays.
His aDOT is up 25% this year from last, and that’s dented his efficiency in such a way that he sits outside of my top-20 this week, even in a plus matchup. I still think there is upside in this profile, but with so much importance being placed on those splash plays, it’s impossible not to worry about the floor that comes into focus should those bombs not connect.
Dallas Goedert, TE
The shovel pass isn’t the most visually appealing play in professional sports, but when your TE hauls in two of them for short touchdowns, you’re not going to complain.
Those two plays on Sunday brought Goedert’s TD total to nine this season, one more than he had in the previous three years combined. Is he a drastically different player than he was prior?
I’d argue no. The targets, both in quantity and quality, are about the same; he’s just been on the right side of variance. Heck, he should have had a hat trick against the Raiders, as his one missed target was a drop on the goal line that he catches in his sleep.
Given the trajectory of his position, his TD equity OR his 17 targets over the past two weeks would be enough to earn him a spot at the TE1 table in my Week 16 rankings. The fact that he has both trends working in his favor has him knocking on the door of the top 5.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB
Last Wednesday, the Commanders ruled Jayden Daniels (non-throwing shoulder) out. Still, Dan Quinn also went out of his way to say that the team, eliminated from playoff contention before last week, was not shutting down their sophomore star.
Why? Not sure.
It took a week for them to reverse course on that decision and have officially ruled out their franchise QB for the remainder of the season.
He won’t be drafted as a Tier 1 option this upcoming August like he was entering 2025, but his ceiling remains unchanged in my opinion, and I look forward to picking up shares.
Marcus Mariota, QB
Nope, I didn’t see the Commanders running the ball down the throats of the Giants last week.
Not that it was an impossible outcome, but with Chris Rodriguez scratched and both of their top receivers healthy, I figured Week 15 would be in the hands of Marcus Mariota, a backup who had shown well for himself in his previous two starts, both of which were overtime losses.
His versatility (43 rush yards) and a bomb to Terry McLaurin (51-yard TD that was aided by some shaky tackling at the end) helped save him from a complete disaster. However, his fantasy production was still below expectations due to a meager 19 pass attempts.
I think the quantity of attempts will spike dramatically this weekend as near full-TD underdogs, but the quality figures to back off.
The Eagles haven’t faced much in the way of athletic QBs this season, but in the only two real examples since their Week 9 bye (Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert), they held the versatile QB to at least 29.5% below his season average.
I have Mariota ranked sixth of the six QBs who play before Sunday and outside of my top 20 in evaluating the week as a whole. I respect the consistency he can bring to the table, but I’d rather have some younger options in plus-spots (Bryce Young vs. TB, Tyler Shouch vs. NYJ, or J.J. McCarthy at NYG) if I’m hitting the waiver wire for help.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB
Rodriguez’s status last week came down to the wire, but a groin injury left him on the sidelines against the Giants.
Do I think he’s the best back in town if he can clear the physical hurdles? I do, and a spot against a defense that could again be without Jalen Carter (shoulders, has missed consecutive weeks and was labeled as “week-to-week” after undergoing a pair of procedures on December 4) isn’t too scary.
But is this really the offense you want to bet on?
Rodriguez hasn’t reached 12 expected PPR points in a game this season, has one catch, and doesn’t have a 20+ yard touch since September. There’s far more risk than potential reward in this matchup/role combination, and that has me not waiting with bated breath on Commander scouting reports: look elsewhere when filling out your playoff lineup.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB
Rodriguez (groin) was a game-time decision last week. It ultimately ended up missing the game against the Giants, paving the way for Jacory Corskey-Merritt to deliver his first usable performance in over two months.
For the week, he picked up 96 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, but it was another game without a target (his fourth this season, 13 targets for the season) and limited explosive potential. The touchdown came from 16 yards out on the third drive, and while it was good to see, it was clear at that point that Washington was non-committal on where their rushing attempts were going:
- Croskey-Merritt: 6 carries for 44 yards, TD
- Marcus Mariota: 4 carries for 30 yards
- Jeremy McNichols: 5 carries for 9 yards
The team clearly isn’t sold on this situation, so how can you be? Rodriguez was close to playing last week, and that leads me to believe that he’s on the right side of questionable right now, but this projects to be a split backfield in a tough matchup, no matter how you slice it.
Move on.
Jeremy McNichols, RB
With Rodriguez inactive, we essentially got an even split between Croskey-Merritt (55.2% snap share) and Jeremy McNichols (46.6%) in the win over the Giants.
While the snap share was close to even, the fantasy roles weren’t (Croskey-Merritt got the only red zone touch for this backfield and finished with an 18-10 touch advantage).
If we were in the middle of the season, I’d have an optimistic-sounding breakdown. Something along the lines of “there is work on the ground to chase and he’s the only back in town that is fluid as a route runner” would be my take.
That’s true, but in Week 16 of a lost season, it’s hard to express much in the way of short-term optimism.
He turned nine carries into just six yards on Sunday. The 16-yard grab was good to see, and the limitations of his teammates give him a direct path to work, but not nearly enough in a below-average offense.
Look elsewhere, even if it’s in the form of a player that is an injury away from mattering.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
Deebo Samuel ended up leading the Commanders in targets against the Giants, but it was a game where Washington had 21 more rush attempts than aimed passes, and any game where that’s the case, you’re walking a skinny line.
McLaurin hit the one splash play that this offense offered, and that left no meat on the bone for Samuel (43 yards). There was a momentary spike in production for the offensive weapon before the Week 12 bye (TD catch in consecutive games). Still, the yardage simply hasn’t been nearly stable enough to make him a viable flex play: three games with 75+ receiving yards this season and under 45 eight times.
If you’re considering Samuel this week, you’re making a decision based on a career resume, not a current role, and that’s a mistake.
Terry McLaurin, WR
Mariota hit McLaurin for what turned into a 51-yard touchdown last week. The WR1 gained some separation downfield, and the ball was put on him at the 20-yard line. While the chunk gain was going to happen, some sloppy tackling played it into a backbreaking score.
I don’t really care how we get there, as long as we get there.
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Outside of the splash play, McLaurin had just two catches for 18 yards in what was an awfully low pass volume game for Washington (10 completions). He’s now scored in three of his past four games and earned at least a 25% target share in all three games since returning from a month-long hiatus.
The role is there, and so is the talent. I expect the volume to be in a better spot this week than last, with the Commanders currently a 6.5-point home underdog, and that’s enough to land him just inside of my top-20 this week.
The commitment to Mariota for the rest of the season is probably a good thing for those holding McLaurin, as it’s one fewer moving piece to navigate. There were no signs on Sunday or in the reporting that this team is packing it in on 2025, so I think you’re safe to deploy their WR1 as you usually would.
Zach Ertz, TE
Zach Ertz tore his ACL in Week 14, and I would hate to see his career end in such fashion. Only time will tell on that front: in the scope of the Commanders for the remainder of the 2025 season, there’s not a tight end that you need to worry about in Ertz’s spot.
Ben Sinnott fans, calm down. I saw your dynasty prospect record a 36-yard catch over the weekend, but he was on the field for under 60% of the snaps and ran just 10 routes. If there were an organizational push to get him live reps as this season winds down, we would have seen much more of an effort on that front on Sunday.
