Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Playoff Edition

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (at DET)

I thought Aaron Rodgers was fine on Monday night against the Dolphins, and it was good to see him throw multiple TD passes for the first time since Week 8. But even if you think he’s capable of playing at a league-average level, this offense isn’t built for him to help your fantasy roster.

Arthur Smith has held him under 30 pass attempts in three of his past four games, and without a path to upside via rushing or deep shots, the ceiling isn’t nearly high enough to justify the risk you’re taking in a game where the Steelers could get run out of the building.

Just a reminder of what happened last time Aaron Rodgers played the Detroit Lions: pic.twitter.com/CpArgDsaCf

— Crunch Time Sports (@officialctpod) December 17, 2025

If you want to bet on garbage time, do it via one of the running backs by way of dump-off passes of DK Metcalf: don’t get cute and think that Rodgers is in position to post a top 15 week.

Baker Mayfield | TB (at CAR)

Is there a correlation between commercial volume and performance for Baker Mayfield?

He broke the record for TD passes by a rookie in 2018, had a shaky 2019 season, bounced back with a fun 2020 campaign, and started appearing in elite commercials.

Elite. High-end. Top notch. No notes.

But then he disappeared from our collective radar. He struggled in 2021 with the Browns, underwhelmed in 2022 with the Panthers, then was traded to the Rams and had a strong moment in a largely unimpressive season.

The commercials dried up. We only had memories of them.

He was phenomenal last season and was an MVP frontrunner through the first six weeks this season.

The commercials come back. He’s inventing celebrations and once again making us laugh. I call my parents, and they are quoting his lines. He was back on the national radar in that way … and he hasn’t been the same since.

He’s been intercepted five times in his past five games and has completed under 58% of his passes in four of those contests.

I think we see the commercials come down this week and good Baker return!

I wasn’t impressed with his performance on Thursday night, but 59.4% of his targets went to Mike Evans or Emeka Egbuka, and that’s his path to fantasy greatness. Heck, he even showcased the willingness to explore upside with Jalen McMillan last week with a pair of 19-yard completions, one of which ended on the one-inch line and very easily could have resulted in a score (was ruled as such on the field).

Tyler Shough and Tua Tagovailoa are on the list of QBs to score 19+ fantasy points against the Panthers this season. They can be had through the air, and with Bucky Irving averaging under four yards per carry in all three of his games back from injury, I’m expecting Todd Bowles to want his fate in the hands of this now healthy passing game.

It’s been a tough pill over the past month-plus, but I’m comfortable with Mayfield as a top-10 QB this weekend and think you should be too.

Bo Nix | DEN (vs JAX)

In watching this game on Sunday, it felt like Bo Nix was maturing before our eyes.

Maybe not a full-blown transformation, that’ll take more than a single data point, but more like when a 13-year-old boy has his voice crack for the first time.

He’s rotated between reckless and cautious, savvy and stupid, gutless and gutty at points this season. But over the weekend against the Packers, I thought he was stable. He was grounded. He was confident in his reads, and his stats reflected as much.

Yeah, his four-touchdown, zero-interception looks good, but it was more than that. He completed six-of-10 deep passes (Weeks 1-14: 35.2% deep completion percentage) and was putting his talented teammates in a position to win. Three of his touchdowns were on balls thrown past the sticks (two more than he had in his previous four games combined), and he completed six of eight third-down passes.

Nix needs to lean into his athleticism a little more before labeling him as a lineup lock (five straight games under 20 rushing yards), but the foundation is being laid. If you have him, you’re playing him: this Jags defense has looked solid for two months now, but the level of competition hasn’t exactly been high.

A bet on Nix this weekend, with your season on the line, is a bet on Sean Payton maximizing what a talented QB can do with a deep core of playmakers around him. If I lose my matchup because that profile fails, I can live with it.

Brock Purdy | SF (at IND)

Brock Purdy handled his business against the undermanned Titans (23-of-30 for 295 yards and three touchdowns), funneling three-quarters of his looks to three players, routinely taking advantage of mismatches.

He did everything he was asked to and even added 44 rushing yards for good measure (43 rush yards in his first five starts this season). Purdy has completed over 70% of his passes in three of his past four games, and this was the second time he proved capable of taking advantage of a great matchup.

This Colts defense isn’t one to fea,r and with his primary playmakers healthy, Purdy is to be viewed as a high-floor play that can help a strong team that just lost Patrick Mahomes. Or maybe on a competitive team that isn’t loving the idea of playing Lamar Jackson against the Patriots.

Asking him to break the slate with a huge game isn’t wise, but 18-22 fantasy points on Monday night with your matchup in the balance can hold value.

Bryce Young | CAR (vs TB)

Bryce Young had a highlight pass in the 32-yard dime to Jalen Coker, but it’s clear that this team has no intention to put their fate in the hands of their QB, and that seriously caps his fantasy upside.

He’s been more active as a rushing threat in recent weeks (15+ rushing yards in back-to-back-to-back games), and this is a game against a pass funnel Bucs defense that just allowed Kirk Cousins, without Drake London, to pile up 373 passing yards against them.

If you want to get in a DFS situation, be my guest, but the juice isn’t worth the squeeze in a redraft setting coming out of a week where a few fringe options are coming off of big days and project better.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs LV)

Context is important, and that means the Arizona matchup needs to be considered, but Sunday was one of the two best games C.J. Stroud has played this season, and that’s not debatable.

Against the Cards, he hit Nico Collins for a 57-yard score on his first pass and finished with 22 completions on 29 attempts for 260 yards with three TDs. The counting numbers were great, but anyone can take advantage of a plus-matchup for 60 isolated minutes over the course of a long season.

Can I be interested in nine completions and a touchdown on 11 throws under duress?

Through the first 14 weeks, Stroud completed 48% of passes in such spots with more INTs than TDs.

I’m not here to suggest that a single data point is enough to elevate him into the must-start tier, but he does have access to a rare talent at the receiver position, a consistent tight end, and a team with question marks littering the backfield.

Replacing Patrick Mahomes? Not comfortable with Matthew Stafford in Seattle? Stroud was the big winner from this week, along with Trevor Lawrence (at DEN on Sunday), and it’s easy to prefer his situation. We aren’t looking at an elite asset, but you have a very viable bailout option should he be available and you need it.

Caleb Williams | CHI (vs GB)

Less is more.

Caleb Williams hasn’t completed more than 20 passes in any game during this 6-1 stretch, and he is in an interesting spot to avenge the one misstep over that stretch.

Week 14 Splits at Packers

• When Pressured: 25% complete (season: 38.1%)
• When Not Pressured: 69.6% complete (season: 66.2%)

Those are interesting splits given the Micah Parsons injury. I was impressed by what I saw early last weekend against the Browns (first half: 12-of-18 for 190 yards and a touchdown with five different players seeing multiple targets). While the rushing impact has been a bit muted of late (five straight without three fantasy points scored on the ground), we see his mobility on full display weekly.

I’ve got Williams ranked as QB11 this week. I think he has top-5 upside in this game if the Green Bay defense takes a massive step back, and I think the floor is pretty stable given his confidence in executing Ben Johnson’s system.

The Rome Odunze situation needs to be monitored. Williams found DJ Moore for a pair of TDs last week, though the second one was walking a thin line between genius and reckless. If he can have his WR1 back in the mix this week, he’ll move up in my rankings, ahead of his counterpart.

Cameron Ward | TEN (vs KC)

After going three months without a single multi-pass TD game, Cam Ward has now done it in consecutive games.

I’m watching.

He doesn’t matter for the remainder of this season, but if he can close this season with increased confidence despite playing with limited support, he’ll be on the streaming radar in 2026.

Isn’t it amazing what a little balance will do? Tony Pollard has given this offense a new dimension over the past two weeks, and in those games, Ward has completed 12-of-18 passes with two scores in play-action spots.

Dak Prescott | DAL (vs LAC)

After lighting the fantasy world on fire for two months, Dak Prescott has five touchdown passes against four interceptions in Dallas’ past four games.

This runout is exactly why we fear pocket passers.

In Weeks 2-13, Prescott had 16 end zone completions, but he’s 0-of-7 when throwing to the painted area over the past two weeks, and that’s undone his fantasy stock in a major way (consecutive finishes outside of the top 12 at the position).

The Chargers rank in the top 5 in touchdown rate, interception rate, sack percentage, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating. I think you’ll get more from Prescott this week than last, but he’s far from a certainty to finish as a top-10 producer at the position.

Drake Maye | NE (at BAL)

Drake Maye averaged just 6.7 yards per pass against the Bills on Sunday, his worst mark since 6.2 in Week 1, and his major highlight in the loss was getting all the way downfield to block for TreVeyon Henderson.

Despite having his worst day of the season when throwing beyond the sticks (four-of-10 with an interception), Maye was able to salvage his fantasy day with a pair of rush TDs inside the 10-yard line, where he showed a nice level of decisiveness in his natural gifts.

The Pats did their damage on the ground last week, and the threat of explosives there is a long-term win. Maye has a 124.9 passer rating in play-action spots (72.1% complete with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions), and I think you can count on a passing bounce back in this matchup with another former MVP.

He’s my QB1 on Sunday Night Football.

Gardner Minshew | KC (at TEN)

Gardner Minshew comes with excitement because he plays a fun style, but he hasn’t had 18+ fantasy points in a start since Week 15 of 2023 with the Colts.

That said, he’s dropped back 45+ times in each of his last two starts and averages 39 per start for his career. The quality may not be there, but the quantity could be by way of this KC system, should it work in a pass-centric style with him under center.

If Andy Reid really cuts him loose, Minshew could finish as a top 20 QB in this plus-matchup, but you’re not going this way as your replacement if you lost Patrick Mahomes.

Geno Smith | LV (at HOU)

Geno Smith took a beating in Week 14 against the Broncos, and an injury to his throwing shoulder ultimately kept him out last weekend.

Kenny Pickett made the start, but this is shuffling chairs on the Titanic. This Raiders offense has flaws left and right that marginalize their two high-end skill-position players, leaving the quarterback position useless in our fantasy world.

With or without Smith, the Texans D/ST has the potential to be a week winner.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at NYG)

It’s hard to know what to make of J.J. McCarthy right now, as a fantasy asset or a real-life franchise centerpiece.

He carries himself the right way and has shown flashes, but his struggles to get Justin Jefferson are among the most confusing trends going on in the NFL right now.

On Sunday night in Dallas, he was two-of-eight when throwing to his WR1 and 13-of-16 when targeting anyone else wearing purple.

It’s annoying and enough of a concern to completely have him off of my radar for this week in redraft, but I think I’m encouraged long term.

That sounds counterintuitive, but would you rather a young QB develop a connection with one of the best receivers in the game or work on honing his game to a point where average NFL talent can succeed?

His getting on the same page with Jefferson seems to be the only thing standing in his way of being a top-15 play next season. McCarthy has up to three rushing touchdowns in eight starts this season and has a 10+ yard rush in five of those contests. The mobility is good enough, and there are enough breadcrumbs to give me hope.

Against the Cowboys, he was eight-of-12 with two scores when running play-action, and over the past two weeks, he’s eight-of-13 with two touchdowns and no interceptions when throwing deep downfield.

This is a talented team with a high-end playcaller and a minimum of nine indoor games per season. I’m not playing him in Week 16, but for 2026, why can’t he be on the low-end QB1 radar?

Right now, just over two fantasy PPG separate QB9-18.

Jacoby Brissett | ARI (vs ATL)

The Cardinals were down 10 before Jacoby Brissett stepped onto the field last week against the Texans, and it opened us up to even more garbage time production.

Fantasy Finishes, Weeks 6-15

• Week 6: QB7
• Week 7: QB12
• Week 8: bye
• Week 9: QB10
• Week 10: QB9
• Week 11: QB4
• Week 12: QB7
• Week 13: QB10
• Week 14: QB12
• Week 15: QB12

Since Week 10, 90% of his fantasy points this season have come when trialing. They are a minor underdog this week against a rested Falcons team, and while I don’t think this is one-sided the way the other games have been, Arizona’s backfield injuries are stacking up.

Asking for another 40+ pass attempts (he’s done it in six straight) is a bit much, but we did see Baker Mayfield throw 34 times against them last Thursday night, and if Brissett can get to that level, he’s in that QB8-12 range again.

I don’t think there’s much (if any) room for statistical growth, but you don’t need growth; you need Brissett to sustain what he’s been doing. In terms of popular QBs in the fantasy world, I have Brissett ranked ahead of Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Herbert this week.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (at WAS)

The only thing Jalen Hurts did wrong on Sunday was be too good.

The Eagles built a 31-point lead through three quarters, and that led to him being spelled by Tanner McKee for the final 15 minutes.

Before departing, Hurts was everything you drafted him to be. He was a willing runner (seven carries for 39 yards), hit both of his standout WRs for a 30+ yard gain, and was efficient when looking the way of Dallas Goedert (six catches on seven targets and the lone incompletion was a touchdown drop by his TE).

Two of his three passing scores were a product of those goofy forward pitches, but those sorts of lanes open up when you threaten the defense in a variety of ways.

The raw fantasy numbers could have been better if he played the fourth quarter, and that’s a tough pill to swallow if you got sent home. If not, all systems go as Hurts looked as good as he has all season. This is the first of two meetings with a vulnerable Commanders defense in three weeks, a defense that he ran for three scores against in the NFC Title game last season.

I no longer think Hurts has the weekly ceiling that Josh Allen does, but he remains a strong fantasy asset, even if the range of outcomes has been more than you bargained for.

Jared Goff | DET (vs PIT)

Jared Goff’s Lions took the loss on Sunday, but he threw for over 300 yards for a second straight game and over 250 for a seventh consecutive contest.

He’s looked comfortable indoors, and we are supposed to be surprised?

Against the Rams, 80% of his completions, 88.2% of his passing yards, and 100% of his passing scores went to his two dynamic receivers. Goff’s skill set isn’t as foolproof as the Josh Allens of the world, who can overcome a tough game with a wide range of skills, but when comfortable, how many QBs do you trust in the pocket more?

Over the past two seasons, there have been three instances in which a QB, for a season, has 20 touchdowns and 8.5 YPA when throwing from inside the pocket:

• 2024 Lamar Jackson (MVP runner-up): 29 TDs and 8.6 YPA
• 2024 Goff: 33 TDs and 8.6 YPA
• 2025 Goff: 28 TDs and 8.6 YPA

Goff has been a top-10 QB in three of the past four weeks, and I expect him to extend that run against a Steelers team that played on Monday night.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (vs MIN)

The Giants have pulled back on the designed runs, but that’s not stopping Jaxson Dart from playing the only way he knows (12+ yard rush in four straight games and over 55 rush yards in three of those contests).

Against the Commanders last week, Dart posted the highest aDOT of his season (11.8 yards), a direct result of the game state: all 36 of his pass attempts came with New York trailing. Both of his TD passes came when pressured, a nice trend to take into a game against the most aggressive unit in the league.

The Vikings haven’t allowed a QB to reach his season average in fantasy points since Jared Goff inched over his current PPG back in Week 9. I have Dart ranked ahead of Week 15 hero Trevor Lawrence (at DEN), but he still sits outside of my top 12 for the week due to the matchup.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs PHI)

Last Wednesday, the Commanders ruled Jayden Daniels (non-throwing shoulder) out. Still, Dan Quinn went out of his way to say that the team, eliminated from playoff contention before last week, was not shutting down its sophomore star.

Why? Not sure.

It took a week for them to reverse course on that decision and have officially ruled out their franchise QB for the remainder of the season.

He won’t be drafted as a Tier 1 option this upcoming August like he was entering 2025, but his ceiling remains unchanged in my opinion, and I look forward to picking up shares.

Joe Burrow | CIN (at MIA)

Joe Burrow sounded just as disappointed in his performance as fantasy managers on Sunday, and his future in Cincinnati doesn’t appear to be a certainty.

The Ravens pressured him 14 times: four completions, three sacks, and two interceptions.

He tried to implement the Joe Flacco strategy (44.4% target share for Ja’Marr Chase), but he just couldn’t find a rhythm (5.8 yards per pass), and that has him sitting as more of a Tier 3 QB this week for me.

If you could guarantee me four quarters, I’d have Burrow flirting with top 5 status in this spot, but you have to acknowledge the risk that comes with betting on this team keeping him out there in any meaningless spot (seven DNPs in 2023 and nine so far this season)

We have five starts from Joe Cool this season, and he’s been held under six yards per pass in four of them (for reference, that’s a higher rate of efficiency duds than Justin Fields this season).

Yikes.

Jordan Love | GB (at CHI)

Jordan Love accounted for over 300 yards of offense against the Broncos on Sunday (276 passing and 29 rushing), but his growth seems to have hit a bit of a lull.

Exactly zero of his 23 touchdown passes this season have come when pressured, and he hasn’t been as potent in years past in those play-action spots, a critical component of this Packers offense that features Josh Jacobs.

YPA, Play-Action

• 2023: 9.5 yards
• 2024: 8.9 yards
• 2025: 7.9 yards

It sounds like the Christian Watson chest injury isn’t going to result in much, if any, missed time, and that’s huge when it comes to how teams defend this offense. We saw Love spread the ball around in this matchup two weeks ago (17-of-25 for 234 yards and three touchdowns against one interception) with seven of his teammates earning 2-4 targets and three of them notching a 20+ yard gain.

The Bears looked like a competent defense last week against a limited Browns defense. Still, they rank bottom-7 in both YPA and air yards per throw against when evaluating this season as a whole, flaws that Love should be able to expose in this game with huge postseason ramifications.

Sign me up for Love posting his fifth top-7 finish of the season.

Josh Allen | BUF (at CLE)

I don’t know how you slow down Josh Allen for 60 minutes.

He has 16 red zone pass attempts over the past two weeks, his highest two-game total this season, and is fueling two of his four three-TD pass games of the season.

If he’s not throwing passes inside the 20-yard line, he’s running over defenders on his way there (12 TD rushes this season, his third straight season reaching that mark). He’s averaging a career high in terms of yards gained per short pass, and his third-down completion percentage is 14.5 percentage points above where it stood during his MVP 2024 campaign.

Buffalo had the ball for under 13 minutes in the first half on Sunday, and he still ended up accounting for nearly 250 yards of offense and three scores. He’s a one-of-one at the game’s most important position, and he might occupy his own tier when I sit down to hammer out my way-too-early 2026 redraft rankings.

Justin Herbert | LAC (at DAL)

If you can spot the difference in how Justin Herbert has played post-non-throwing hand surgery compared to pre-injury, you have a sharper eye than I do.

His deep throw rate, average depth of throw, and rush yards per game are all essentially in line with what we’ve come to expect.

His completion percentage is down a tick, but I saw enough on Sunday (six-of-eight when throwing past the sticks against the Chiefs) to think that the tough showing against the Eagles (two-of-13 on those throws) was more of an aberration than a new rule.

He delivered a dime to KeAndre Lambert-Smith in the back of the end zone at the end of the first half, a pass that looked like the high pedigree franchise QB that he is.

The play on the field looks fine, but we’ve had a counting numbers issue for 1.5 months now. Herbert has thrown multiple TD passes in just one of his past five games and hasn’t cleared 220 yards through the air in any of those contests.

Los Angeles had 29 pass attempts and 29 rush attempts in KC last week and maybe that’s the new norm. Quentin Johnson sat out, Keenan Allen is past his prime, and Ladd McConkey hasn’t had nearly the same success that he did during his rookie season.

Jim Harbaugh leaned into the pass in a major way to open this season, but it would appear that he’s settled on a different philosophy of late: the best way to leverage my QB is to have the game be close late and ask him to win it.

Who am I to question the head coach of a 10-4 team?

We just saw JJ McCarthy post a triple-digit passer rating against this Dallas defense. While I think Herbert can have similar levels of success, we have to take into consideration that he hasn’t thrown more than 33 passes in a game since mid-October.

Herbert is a fringe starter for me, ranking behind CJ Stroud (vs. LV), someone who is available in more than a few leagues.

Kirk Cousins | ATL (at ARI)

Kirk Cousins lit up the Buccaneers on Thursday night (373 yards and three touchdowns) and gets a favorable spot in the desert this weekend.

Don’t get cute.

Yes, he looked great last week, but that was a pass-funnel defense that this Atlanta coaching staff is comfortable with. Cousins wasn’t better than QB15 in any of his starts this season prior to Week 15 and he had as many touchdowns as interceptions.

He doesn’t offer anything with his legs and his accuracy down the field has been nothing short of prohibitive (3-of-19 on balls thrown 20+ yards this season). This is a team that is playing for nothing and has limited supporting talent in terms of the pass catcher room.

Cousins isn’t a quarterback you should be trusting in a semifinal situation ,even after the huge Week 15.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs NE)

Let’s start with the good: a matchup against the AFC’s top seed is probably going to require Lamar Jackson to throw more than the 12 passes he did last week in the shutout victory over the Bengals.

It obviously wasn’t a high volume game through the air, but Jackson looked sharp, something I haven’t written in a while. He hit three different players for 28+ yard gains and the interception that he threw should have been another chunk gain, but Zay Flowers butchered a pretty pass and Cincy was there to snag the deflection.

The deep patterns to Flowers were largely a success and you’ll take a 32-yard catch from DeAndre Hopkins whenever you can, but the simplistic nature of the Rasheen Ali touchdown pass is why I’m leaving the light on for Jackson to post one more big fantasy performance before we tie a bow on 2025.

It wasn’t complicated. Jackson faded back, allowed the pressure to get past the versatile running back, and delivered the ball on time, in space to allow him to sprint for the end zone. The play itself wasn’t special, but the timing and anticipation of both Jackson and Todd Monken was what we like to see.

He opened the season with three straight top-5 finishes at the position, but he has only had two top-12s since. If this Ravens team is going to make any noise, the first step comes in this spot, at home, against a pass defense that just allowed Josh Allen to pick them apart for three TDs in a very Baltimore-like way (two to a backup TE and one to a running back).

Jackson had two carries last weekend, and they both gained at least a dozen yards. Maybe I’m a sucker, but I’m willing to be early to the party: Jackson is my QB6 this week, a result that would be his best weekly finish since September.

Marcus Mariota | WAS (vs PHI)

Nope, I didn’t see the Commanders running the ball down the throats of the Giants last week.

Not that it was an impossible outcome, but with Chris Rodriguze scratched and both of their top receivers healthy, I figured Week 15 would be in the hands of Marcus Mariota, a backup who had shown well for himself in his previous two starts, both of which were overtime losses.

His versatility (43 rush yards) and a bomb to Terry McLaurin (51-yard TD that was aided by some shaky tackling at the end) helped save him from a complete disaster. But his fantasy production remained below expectations, despite a meager 19 pass attempts.

I think the number of attempts will spike dramatically this weekend as near full-TD underdogs, but the quality figures to back off.

The Eagles haven’t faced much in the way of athletic QBs this season, but in the only two real examples since their Week 9 bye (Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert), they held the versatile QB to at least 29.5% below his season average.

I have Mariota ranked sixth among the six QBs who play before Sunday and outside my top 20 for the week as a whole. I respect the consistency he can bring to the table, but I’d rather have some younger options in plus-spots (Bryce Young vs. TB, Tyler Shouch vs. NYJ, or J.J. McCarthy at NYG) if I’m hitting the waiver wire for help.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (at SEA)

Sportsbooks are labeling Matthew Stafford as a heavy favorite to walk away from this season with the MVP trophy, and that’s great, but I’m benching him in the semifinals of my playoffs if at all possible.

Having access to Puka Nacua means a big week is never far away. Still, we saw this Seattle defense get under Stafford’s skin back in Week 11 (19 yards on his 11 pressured passes), and with Davante Adams (hamstring) likely sidelined, I’m not sold on the reward outweighing the risk.

This is now a two-headed backfield that showcased their upside last week against the Lions (Kyren Williams and Blake Corum turned 26 carries into 149 yards and three scores), and given the pack of the Seahawks, are we positive that Stafford throws the ball 35 times?

32 times?

Without the rushing ability to add cheap points to his profile and (likely) Adams to transform RB dives into WR fades, Stafford scoring under 17 fantasy points for the seventh time is something I view as more likely than not to happen.

I wouldn’t play Trevor Lawrence over him in a brutal matchup, but C.J. Stroud against the Raiders? I would.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (at TEN)

By now, you’re well aware of what happened to Patrick Mahomes over the weekend.

A torn ACL ended his season shortly before the playoff hopes for the Chiefs were dashed, and now he’s gearing up for a recovery process that could butt up against the start of the 2026 regular season.

We can jump into his future evaluation as he progresses through rehab, and this roster comes into focus, but it’s plenty fair to ask questions. Mahomes scored 25.3% of his fantasy points in 2025 with his legs, easily topping the career high that he set in 2024 of 15.1%.

Does this injury change how he plays?

Does this offense add weapons to adjust to any tweaks in his style?

How favorable a schedule do the Chiefs get with a third-place finish?

There are a lot of things to sort out in the profile between now and your draft. There’s a natural urge to form opinions now, but I encourage you to wait and gather facts as they become available over the next few months.

Philip Rivers | IND (vs SF)

Philip Rivers completed four of five passes against the scary Seahawks blitz and held his own at about as high a level as you could realistically hope for.

With that being the case, no Colt hit 35 receiving yards; he completed just three passes past the sticks, and the team averaged 3.7 yards per play.

This matchup is obviously different from going into Seattle, but even a 50% increase in his production doesn’t give us much to work with.

Rivers isn’t close to fantasy relevant and, at best, we are looking at one viable pass catcher with a minimum of three players vying for that role. The story is a good one, but the actionable for fantasy purposes is straightforward: downgrades across the board.

Sam Darnold | SEA (vs LAR)

The Seahawks keep winning, and it continues to require very little from their starting quarterback.

Sam Darnold failed to throw a touchdown pass on Sunday, his third such outing over his past five games, one of which was the first game against these Rams (29-of-44 for 279 yards and four interceptions).

I don’t think we are in danger of a repeat performance, if for no other reason that airballs like that don’t happen a ton to playoff teams, but they had a simple game plan and executed it at a high level.

In that Los Angeles win, Darnold had 13 pressured passes, and they netted just 40 yards and three turnovers. I expect this offense to be prepared for that sort of aggression this week. With Rashid Shaheed more comfortable in his role, I do think there’s some upside to a contrarian Darnold angle, be it for betting or DFS showdown situations.

Even with that take, I can’t get Darnold inside of my top 15 at the position: he’s not someone to trust with your season on the line, but that’s been the case for the past two months. There are streaming options that offer more upside with less risk.

Shedeur Sanders | CLE (vs BUF)

Guess what?

A rookie quarterback is going through it. The good, the bad, and the ugly. All of it.

One week after lighting up the Titans for 364 yards and three scores, Shedeur Sanders had no answer for an often iffy Bears defense, averaging just 5.1 yards per pass with three interceptions.

He showed nice touch on a few deep balls, but in large, he was a mess. Sanders was 13-of-29 for 59 yards with all three of his picks when Chicago didn’t blitz: in essence, he’s struggling to progress through his reads.

That’s an issue, but far from surprising. Cam Ward has gone through his issues this season in the same way. It happens. Any hot takes on whether Sanders can or can’t make it at this level are just that, hot takes.

We don’t have nearly enough data to have any idea of what he is at this level. This Browns team lacks talent, and, for right now, Sanders’ processing speed is a tick slow. Cleveland wasn’t expecting him to look like a finished product, and we shouldn’t be either.

Take in all of the data for the rest of the season and piece together how you want to approach this situation moving forward. No matter where you fall on this situation, you’re not going to be right or wrong by the end of this season.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at DEN)

I entered Week 15 thinking that Trevor Lawrence would be a complete fade during the fantasy semis.

I still believe that, but my goodness, is he playing at a high level.

Multiple TD passes in four straight games is great, and that last three coming without an interception is even better. From keeping plays alive to challenging defenses vertically to taking the easy button completions, he’s doing now what we all hyped him up to be capable of at this level when he was viewed as the golden child in high school.

Growth isn’t linear, and fantasy players aren’t patient.

It’s just the nature of this sport.

He’s getting more help now than he has in years past (19 TDs on balls thrown less than 15 yards this season after totaling 20 over the previous two seasons) and has upped this third-down completion percentage by more than 10 points over last season.

He’s extending drives and putting pressure on opposing defenses to make plays. The consistency of Jakobi Meyers is amplifying Lawrence’s skill set, and that’s why I think this is a team that most will not want to see in the postseason.

It’s great to see, but I have to think you can do better than going this direction, on the road, against one of the best defenses in the sport.

Suppose you played Lawrence last week, congratulations. That tells me that you’re a savvy manager who reads into matchups and player trajectories.

Those skills that landed you on him as a reasonable dice roll in Week 15 are the same ones that have you pivoting in Week 16.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs CIN)

I’m not a big eye test guy, but if you thought that Tua Tagovailoa looked like the picture his numbers painted on Monday night (22-of-28 for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception), we are coming at this from very different angles.

The interception was a fluttering pass in the first quarter. It kind of looked like the football weighed 10 pounds and Tagovailoa was trying to will it to the perimeter. Maybe that was a weather thing (17 degrees at kickoff in Pittsburgh, something that obviously won’t be the case this week), but it certainly wasn’t the first time we saw limitations on that front from Miami’s signal caller.

For the night, 86.1% of his fantasy production came when trailing by 14+ points, a situation that isn’t too likely to occur in this spot with the Bengals’ playoff hopes dashed last week.

If you want to go this direction in a top-heavy DFS contest, go nuts. Stack together five pieces from this game and have a ball. This game could hit in a big way, but for me, the downside potential is far too high if we are talking about the semifinals of your season-long league.

Tyler Shough | NO (vs NYJ)

Tyler Shough (current) and Drake Maye (Weeks 6-9)..

Those are the two quarterbacks this season with four straight games of 6+ rushing attempts and a +65% completion rate.

I’m not here to sell you on New Orleans’ rookie as some sort of difference maker, but I do think he at least deserves our attention. He funneled 29% of his targets in the direction of Chris Olave against the Panthers over the weekend and isn’t that really all we want from these young kids that are just getting their feet wet?

He’s prioritizing his top teammate and taking what defenses are giving him on the ground. Do I think he’s a top-12 option this week or in 2026?

Probably not, but he’s producing above expectations at the most important position in the game for a team that plays indoors and in a division where defense is largely optional.

You’re not doing your job as a fantasy manager if you’re not intrigued by this profile.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at NYG)

Aaron Jones has one year left on his deal, and it’s becoming evident that Kevin O’Connell believes he adds enough stability to this backfield to give J.J. McCarthy a chance at developing.

Jones has 29 touches over the past two weeks and is running roughly four routes for every one from Jordan Mason. My expectations are low for this offense, but if you’re reading into them scoring 65 points over the past two weeks with McCarthy playing better, then Jones deserves a top-15 ranking against the worst run defense in the NFL by EPA.

I’ve got him ranked well ahead of Mason, more in the low-end RB2, high-end flex tier due to my concerns about his scoring equity (two TDs on 116 touches this season).

Alvin Kamara | NO (vs NYJ)

Alvin Kamara missed a third straight game with this knee/ankle injury, and there’s little reason to think that the 30-year-old is going to return in a meaningful way (if at all) for fantasy managers.

The veteran back is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season and hasn’t earned more than three targets in a game since the first half of October. The one-time fantasy difference maker has been unable to return any value for the majority of the season, and a potentially compromised version of him is unlikely to reverse that trend.

New Orleans has shown some fight down the stretch with a young nucleus: I’m anticipating that they lean into that over the final few weeks of the season, and that means that Kamara, even if deemed healthy enough to play, won’t project for enough work as part of a well-below-average offense to crack lineups.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (at HOU)

How crazy is it that I’m looking at Ashton Jeanty’s nine-carry 35-yard performance in Philadelphia on Sunday as a win?

Man, this season hasn’t gone as planned.

In the shutout loss, Jeanty gained yardage on every carry he got. The game script worked away from him, and averaging a tick over one yard per target is a problem, but there was a glimmer of league-average blocking, and it made me smile.

If you spent up on Jeanty, you’re either not reading this, not reading this about that league, or just in it for my witty banter.

I appreciate you all the same, regardless, so let’s try to appeal to all three of those situations.

If Jeanty costs you this season, do not use that as an excuse to make an error in 2026. We don’t yet know what this situation looks like for next season, obviously, and I don’t think we have enough data to say that Jeanty isn’t the generational runner we thought he was.

Of the bottom-5 teams in RB yards per carry before contact last season, four of them rank 16th or better in 2025 (Miami, Tennessee, New England, and Pittsburgh). Run blocking is a skill, but the difference between historically bad and league-average is reasonably small, and a tweak here and there can change things significantly.

Jeanty has been better than the traditional RB average before contact on just 44.5% of his carries this season, ranking him 42nd of 43 running backs. But stick with me here.

If we get him to league average in this regard, that’d be roughly an 11 percentage point bump. It may sound simplistic, but when Jeanty picks up 2+ yards before contact this season, he’s averaging 6.4 yards per carry (under two yards before contact: 2.3 yards per carry).

You’re not here to watch me spin numbers, so I’ll cut to the chase. An 11 percentage-point increase works out to an extra 6-7 rush yards per game, with an uptick in scoring trajectory. That may not sound like much, but I promise you that it is.

That figure is based solely on his current volume, but if each carry is worth a little more, each drive has a little more hope of extending, and extended drives mean more touches. More touches mean more points.

It’s a complicated statistical argument that is simple in practice: a slight improvement can have a significant result. Think of it like cinnamon: a pinch more and the product changes.

After a slow start, Jeanty’s 17-game pace is for 90 targets. Everything you dreamed possible for 2025 is still on the table for 2026 if this offensive line trends toward league-average.

As for Week 16, he’s a flex at best. The Texans haven’t allowed an RB to hit a dozen PPR points in six of their past 12 games, a run that includes offenses in Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Kansas City that carry more ways to threaten this elite defense than what Vegas is trotting out there weekly.

TLDR: Consider benching Jeanty this week and consider reinvesting in 2026. Fantasy football can be complicated.

Bam Knight | ARI (vs ATL)

Bam Knight went down with what has been labeled as a “bad” ankle sprain last week, as this team just tries to get to the finish line of a disappointing 2025 season (Trey Benson and Kyler Murray are already done for the season).

He’s averaged 3.3 yards per carry this season and has more fumbles (one) than touches that have gained more than 20 yards (zero). If you have Knight, this loss probably doesn’t hurt, but the potential for Michael Carter to pick up volume (14 carries on Sunday at Houston) could impact how your league plays out.

Carter isn’t ranked as a starter for you, but we just saw a situation where managers were forced to pivot at the last minute with the Rome Odunze situation. There is no such thing as too many 14-18 touch players on your roster, even if you don’t plan on playing them all.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (at DEN)

The Jags are clicking on all cylinders right now, and that’s great for Duval County.

It’s great for most of the players attached to this offense as well, but Bhayshul Tuten (even when healthy) is the exception.

He scored his sixth touchdown of the season last week in the blowout win over the Jets, but the 16-yard catch accounted for half of his Week 15 touches. With Travis Etienne playing at a high level, Trevor Lawrence threatening defenses in a variety of ways, and Jakobi Meyers opening things up through the air, upping the rookie’s usage would require taking a productive piece off the chessboard.

Etienne has earned himself a nice contract this offseason, and we will see where he lands. Tuten scoring once every 14.7 touches this season is certainly encouraging and will land him on the popular sleeper lists for 2026. Still, with under 10 touches in four straight games, there’s no reason to insert him into starting lineups at this juncture.

Finger surgery likely means that Tuten’s regular season is over: don’t lose track of his name for next year.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (at ARI)

Bijan Robinson finds a way to impress every week.

On Thursday night against the Bucs, he had 64 rushing yards in the first half to complement a 33.3% target share. He finished with double-digit targets for the second time this season and cleared 150 scrimmage yards for the sixth time this season.

With Tyler Allgeier vulturing TDs and the QB play being subpar at best (dismal at times), is Robinson’s best fantasy season ahead of him?

You could sell me on it, and that is why he’ll be in the 1.01 mix this summer. He’s gone over 1,800 scrimmage yards in consecutive seasons, and his efficiency has increased during each season.

To me, he feels like Carolina Christian McCaffrey, and that means he has the potential to reach peak CMC levels if he can get even average support from his running mates.

Blake Corum | LAR (at SEA)

Remember when Tony Pollard was the lightning to Ezekiel Elliott’s thunder?

This isn’t that, but the efficiency of Blake Corum over the past three weeks is nothing short of intoxicating.

• 30 carries (100% gain rate)
• 280 yards
• 4 touchdowns

Two of those scores have come from the doorstep, one from 11 yards, and the other from 48. He has a 24+ yard run in all three of those contests and kind of looks like a player who ran for over 2,700 yards and scored 47 touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons.

Until the Rams make this a hot hand situation and not a series-by-series one, I’m not going to be able to rank the secondary option as a flex-worthy play. His eight carries against these Seahawks in Week 11 gained just 10 yards, and that is the sort of floor that I fear in these tough matchups.

With Davante Adams likely out, you could argue that there is more of a role to chase in scoring situations, but I’d push back and say that without the WR2, I’m not projecting as many scoring chances.

That means you’re getting a bigger piece of a smaller pie, and that essentially leaves you right where you started.

Even with all of the success, Corum’s next game with more than 13 touches will be his first this season, and he’s basically a zero in the passing game (if we are getting technical from a yardage standpoint, he’s actually been less than a zero since the beginning of November with -2 receiving yards).

He sits outside of my top 30 this week. He’s in the David Montgomery and Rhamondre Stevenson tier. There’s nothing wrong with that in a deeper format, but I guess that in standard-sized leagues, you have a minimum of two running backs and three receivers that I’d rather play.

Brashard Smith | KC (at TEN)

At this point, there’s not much value to chase on waiver wires.

That said, the thinking manager can play chess while the rest of the league plays checkers and add a player like Brashard Smith now.

The Chiefs were not just eliminated last week; they saw their future flash before their eyes with Patrick Mahomes being helped to the locker room. What motivation do they have in pushing the running backs on their roster with some career usage to consider and a general knowledge base as to who they are at the professional level?

We know next to nothing about Smith, a seventh-round rookie out of SMU. He’s shown reasonably fluidity in the pass game (37.3% of his touches this season have been receptions), and that’s interesting long-term for a franchise that hopes to rebound in short order via a pass-centric attack.

Heck, we saw Andy Reid toying with the idea of getting him involved last week. The rookie was handed the ball on KC’s second play from scrimmage, a play that ultimately got wiped away by a penalty, but the idea was there.

Smith was on the field as a weapon last week when Mahomes spread the defense thin and ran for a 12-yard score.

The point is not that Smith is destined to be a league-winner, but that he has a pretty clear path to meaningful work at the most important time of the fantasy season, and that you can cut your WR7 for access to him. You have effectively nothing to lose, and in those spots, I’m making this add with confidence.

Breece Hall | NYJ (at NO)

Breece Hall is in a slightly better situation than Ashton Jeanty, but at slightly more risk of losing work, and that is how they both end up outside of my top 20 this week, despite talent that you could argue places them in the top 10 at the position.

The Jets gave four running backs snaps against the Jags in the blowout loss, and Hall totaled 14 of the 27 touches between them. The one-sided nature could explain away those concerns, but that wouldn’t be accurate: he and Isaiah Davis split six carries across the first two drives.

This Saints matchup might be as advantageous as you think: three of the four backs they’ve faced post-bye have produced below their season averages. Hall has been settling in the 15-touch 2-target range for the past month, and that’s about what I think you can expect this weekend: enough to start, but not enough, in the context of this offense, to get excited about.

Bucky Irving | TB (at CAR)

Thursday night was supposed to be a spot for Bucky Irving to party like it was 2024. As a rookie, he was one of the more valuable fantasy assets during the playoff run, and after two weeks of proving his health, this game against the Falcons looked like a spot where he could swing your matchup.

And he did, but in the wrong direction.

He picked up 11 yards on the first play of the game and 11 yards via a checkdown reception on the next one. It started so promising, and that makes the struggles the rest of the way that much more painful.

After those two touches, Irving turned 15 touches into just 49 yards with zero touchdowns and zero receptions (two targets). Sean Tucker vultured the short touchdown, and Mike Evans was back to earning targets like peak Mike Evans, despite him clearly being at far less than full strength.

If you’re wondering, yes, I was counting on Irving in a big spot too. It hurt.

If you survived, I think you would go back to him without a second thought. In both Carolina games last year, he had 20+ carries, 110+ rushing yards, and 30+ receiving yards. Rachaad White is a low-end specialist, while Tucker isn’t considered an option between the 20s: there’s not much standing in the way of him flirting with 20 touches in this must-win game.

Bet on the talent instead of fearing the Week 15 result.

Chase Brown | CIN (at MIA)

This is getting uncomfortable, and with the Bengals officially eliminated from the playoffs, I fear that things may get worse before they get better.

On Sunday, a must-win spot for Cincy, Samaje Perine handled four of their first six carries. For the game, Chase Brown ended up with a 20-15 touch edge and played 62% of the snaps (Perine: 45.1%). His seven catches gave you the type of final stat line that you were looking for (16 PPR points), but the backsliding role is a concern now that the Bengals are looking beyond just the next three games.

I think Brown owns the type of skill set that could make him an RB1 next season, but he’s sliding more into the RB2 role down the stretch of this season, with no more than 13 carries in nine of his past 12 games.

The targets are nice, but Perine is also fluid in that regard, and relying on that skill is a concern if Cincinnati were to lean into a traditional ground game against a Dolphins team that played in Pittsburgh on Monday night.

Long story short: I’m going to like Brown in the final year of his rookie contract next season than I do for the final few weeks of 2025.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (vs PHI)

Chris Rodriguez’s status last week came down to the wire, but a groin injury left him on the sidelines against the Giants.

Do I think he’s the best back in town if he can clear the physical hurdles? I do and a spot against a defense that could again be without Jalen Carter (shoulders, has missed consecutive weeks and was labeled as “week-to-week” after undergoing a pair of procedures on December 4) isn’t too scary.

But is this really the offense you want to bet on?

Rodriguez hasn’t reached 12 expected PPR points in a game this season, has one catch, and doesn’t have a 20+ yard touch since September. There’s far more risk than potential reward in this matchup/role combination, and that has me not waiting with bated breath on Commander scouting reports: look elsewhere when filling out your playoff lineup.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (at IND)

I don’t want to equate Christian McCaffrey to your faithful car that you cross your fingers with every time you start it, but he’s at 345 touches this season and was a late add to the injury report with a back injury in Week 15.

He played through it and logged another 23 touches (three straight games with 20+ carries), but consecutive games without a 15-yard touch? Five straight without a touch, gaining more than 20 yards?

CMC is masking limited efficiency with elite versatility (over 15 PPR points in 13 of 14 games, with the lone exception coming in Houston, a matchup that doesn’t mirror this one in the least) and volume. At this point, we are comfortable in assuming that he is healthy enough to sustain that usage, and that’s right.

We’ve yet to see San Francisco relent on his touches in the slightest, and with them in the middle of a playoff seeding battle, I wouldn’t expect that to change. Even with me weighing the risk of him potentially wearing down, McCaffrey is my top-ranked RB1 for this week, sitting atop a tier of five that stand out above the rest.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs TB)

The Panthers committed to Rico Dowdle early last week (14-6 snap edge over Chuba Hubbard in the first quarter), and with neither running back impressing against the Saints, I’m assuming we see a similar approach in this critical game against a stable run defense in the Buccaneers.

Week 15 RB Participation Date

• Dowdle: 58.9% snaps, 17 touches, 12.4 PPR points
• Hubbard: 42.9% snaps, 9 touches, 4.8 PPR points

In a DFS setting, you could argue that Hubbard is the more savvy route runner, and if we want to dismiss the idea of this run game being efficient, that leaves him open to some cheap PPR production.

For me, that’s overthinking things a bit, and even if it’s accurate, I’m not sure you hit at a high enough level to justify taking this risk.

Personally, I like the Bucs to control this game, and that has me passing on Carolina players across the board where I have the luxury in doing so.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs GB)

De’Andre Swift picked a heck of a time to record his first multi-TD game of the season, carrying 18 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns last week.

The Kyle Monangai factor is real (43.8% snap share last week), but Swift had a six-yard TD on the second drive and, up to that point, he had accounted for every Bear rushing attempt.

This is a committee situation, though I do feel good about the hierarchy. Swift turned 16 touches into 82 yards against these Packers two weeks ago, and he should be able to replicate that against a unit that is now adjusting to life with Micah Parsons.

David Montgomery | DET (vs PIT)

Jahmyr Gibbs couldn’t get anything going last week, so of course, David Montgomery scored for a third consecutive game despite failing to clear 10 touches for the fifth straight contest.

The problem here is that Monty isn’t a goal-line back. He’s not a Robin to Gibbs’ Batman.

He’s an afterthought that just so happens to have been in the right place at the right time in three straight.

If not for the resume, I don’t think you’d give him a second look. I’ve got him ranked comfortably outside of my top 30 this week, behind players like Blake Corum, who have carved out a role, even if it’s not one of high-end usage.

I think the odds of Montgomery scoring under five PPR points are greater than him reaching double figures, and that profile is never going to get into my lineup.

De’Von Achane | MIA (vs CIN)

That’s now seven straight games for De’Von Achane with 5+ catches or a rushing touchdown as he continues to put together a season that is going to land him in the first round of drafts in August.

The rib injury that he suffered in Week 14 showed no signs of slowing down Miami’s ace. Achane has 12+ PPR points in every single game this season and has cleared 16 in 13 of 14. Even in a game on Monday night where he failed to record a red zone touch for just the second time of the season, he was able to more than pay off your trust in him thanks to catching all six passes thrown his way (67 yards).

There is no game script that puts him at risk, and if this offense can take a step or two forward, he has the potential to lead the position in scoring next season.

Derrick Henry | BAL (vs NE)

If you just look at the box score, you’ll see that Derrick Henry did Derrick Henry things against the Bengals on Sunday: 11 carries for 100 yards and zero targets.

Yes, the end result was about what you’d expect in a blowout where Baltimore scored on defense and had the ball for under 21 minutes, but how you got there was a bit unconventional.

Henry turned six carries into just 17 yards during a first half that saw him rank third on the team in rushing yards (Lamar Jackson and Keaton Mitchell). It was an inspiring first 30 minutes, especially after all of the pregame coverage revolving around him, knowing his importance to the future of this team.

Sure enough, he recharged his battery during the break and ripped off a 29-yard gain on his first carry of the second half, a misdirection pitch that got him downhill in a hurry.

The next play had no trickery involved: 24 more yards for the Big Dog.

And there you go, his underwhelming 2.8 yards per carry at the half was now up to an impressive 8.8.

He’s had slightly more success in breaking chunk plays of late (28+ yard carry in three of his past five games), but he remains a TD-reliant player (9.1 PPG in games in which he doesn’t score this season) by nature of his skill set.

This is a dual-edged sword. If Baltimore keeps this game tight, Henry could have a vintage December game where he is punishing the Pats with 20+ carries. But if the Drake Maye experience explodes and Baltimore is fighting to stay competitive, Henry is at risk of posting a 10-touch 58-yard day like what we saw back in September against the Chiefs.

I liked what I saw from this team enough last week to think this is a one-score game throughout, and that has me taking a glass-half-full approach in Week 16 (my RB15).

Devin Neal | NO (vs NYJ)

Devin Neal was able to get you a rushing score for the second straight week before exiting with an ankle injury. He was deemed questionable to return for the entire second half, but never did make it back on the field.

It sounded as if he had a good chance to go this week, and considering that he had 37 touches in the two games prior, that would have put him into the low-end RB2 conversation against a Jets team that has tapped out.

The Saints don’t have any win/loss motivation, but as a team that is coming upon the end of an era with Alvin Kamara, they likely want every data point they can gather on the sixth-round rookie out of Kansas.

That tells me that this hamstring injury is no joke. The team ruled out Neal on Wednesday, leaving this backfield in the hands of Evan Hull and Audric Estime. While I think both are worth a speculative add due to their proximity to volume, I’m not playing either with any level of confidence in the semifinals.

Devin Singletary | NYG (vs MIN)

Devin Singletary posted a triple one in the first half last week against the Commanders (one carry, one target, and one receiving yard) and never got a chance to earn even a split with Tyrone Tracy.

It’s not easy for any backfield to support two players, never mind an offense that has failed to score more than 21 points in four of its past five games. New York is no longer calling designed runs for Jaxson Dart, and that subtracts from the number of things the defense has to consider.

I’m not sure that Tracy repeats anything close to his success from Week 15, but he held more than a 3-to-1 snap edge over Singletary over the weeken,d and I see no reason to expect anything different this week.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (vs BUF)

With Jerome Ford on IR, you could have made the case for Dylan Sampson as an end-of-bench type with the thought being that he was a Quinshon Judkins injury away from handling enough work to at least be moderately interesting.

The rookie sat out last week with what we thought was a calf injury, but saw “hand” added to the description on Wednesday. Regardless of exactly what is ailing him, at 2.6 yards per carry, it’s hard to imagine him being a valuable asset even if he did happen to fall into volume with the season nearing its conclusion.

His savvy out of the backfield (28 catches on 34 targets for 259 yards and two scores) is an interesting skill set to carry into 2026 and could make him a late-round stash, but for the remainder of this season, there’s no need to hold.

Emanuel Wilson | GB (at CHI)

An illness resulted in Emanuel Wilson being added to the Week 15 injury report on Saturday, and while he was active, he touched the ball just twice against the Broncos. He was on the field for just 19% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, ranking behind Chris Brooks in the complementary role next to Josh Jacobs.

At no point this season have the Packers shown an interest in dividing their backfield work, and with the RB1 spoken for with no setbacks suffered in Week 15, there’s no reason to roster a second RB1 in the land of the cheese.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (at TEN)

What are the Chiefs going to do with Isiah Pacheco?

He will be a UFA this offseason, and while he runs hard, health has been an issue, and the team has been hesitant to commit to him this year.

There have been some minor usage trends to suggest that he is the preferred option entering these games, but at 3.9 yards per carry with a long of 16 on his 101 attempts this year, he’s given Andy Reid no real reason to stick with him ahead of Kareem Hunt.

Over the past two weeks, his 20 carries have gained just 51 yards (tough matchups against the Texans and Chargers). He’s maxed out at zero receiving yards in five of his past six, offering little versatility when this offense had upside, something that doesn’t project to be the case with Gardner Minshew taking over.

If the Chiefs plan on bringing him back, what motivation do they have to extend his role over these last few weeks? If they don’t plan on bringing him back, why would they not use this time to get a better look at Brashard Smith?

Neither of those outcomes is good for those of us sitting on Pacheco stock. I’m not playing any running back on this roster as long as all three are active.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (vs PHI)

Chris Rodriguez (groin) was a game-time decision last week. He ultimately missed the game against the Giants, paving the way for Jacory Corskey-Merritt to deliver his first usable performance in over two months.

For the week, he picked up 96 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, but it was another game without a target (his fourth this season, 13 targets for the season) and limited explosive potential. The touchdown came from 16 yards out on the third drive, and while it was good to see, it was clear at that point that Washington was non-committal on where their rushing attempts were going:

• Croskey-Merritt: 6 carries for 44 yards, TD
• Marcus Mariota: 4 carries for 30 yards
• Jeremy McNichols: 5 carries for 9 yards

The team clearly isn’t sold on this situation, so how can you be? Rodriguez was close to playing last week, and that leads me to believe that he’s on the right side of questionable right now, but this projects to be a split backfield in a tough matchup, no matter how you slice it.

Move on.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs PIT)

You have no one but yourself to blame.

You played Jahmyr Gibbs in an odd-numbered week against the Rams and expected success.

Shame on you. Everyone knows that over his last three odd-numbered games, he has zero touchdowns on 57 touches, and in the three most recent even-numbered games, he has nine scores on 63 touches.

Why tempt fate?

If you managed to survive, you not only get an even-numbered week, you also get a home game against a team on short rest.

I’d never project a three-touchdown game, but if you told me a running back was going to score 35+ PPR points this week, Gibbs might be my first guess.

The ground production has been spotty in the yardage department (either over 135 yards or under 70 in eight straight with four games under 45), but with what works out to a 17-touch floor, this is an RB1 every single week when it comes to projecting production.

Is there a player you’d draft over Gibbs in 2026? The first round will be fun to plot out and rank for next season: for the remainder of this season, continue to ride Detroit’s star and hope that he breaks the even/odd thing … next week.

James Cook | BUF (at CLE)

James Cook will get his flowers from time to time, but his greatness is primarily absorbed by what his quarterback does, and I don’t think that’s fair.

Cook is great and is a Tier 2 RB for me. That goes for the rest of this season and into next.

He scored three touchdowns in the comeback win in New England last week and has developed into exactly what this offense needs: a well-rounded runner that keeps them ahead of the chains and has game-breaking abilities.

He’s pacing to have more 10+ yard runs than attempts stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage for the third time in four years, and, for his career, nearly 40% (39.4%) of his carries have picked up at least five yards.

Duo hitting right down the pipe for a Bills TD. Good on James Cook breaking the only tackle he needed to break

Also, shout out to Tyrell Shavers (14) being a ball of joy

pic.twitter.com/IfX3MbN5Z5

— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) December 17, 2025

Josh Allen’s gravity is one thing, and he gets a lot of the credit for opening lanes. That’s true, but is it not also true that the threat of Cook allows Allen to freelance at times?

His consistency is something I didn’t expect to see at this point in his career, but he’s a key cog in an offense with Super Bowl aspirations.

This Cleveland run defense has fallen apart recently, having allowed 20+ PPR points to a running back in four of their past five games (the lone successful game in that regard came against Christian McCaffrey, because of course it did). I fully expect Cook to make it five of six as Buffalo tries to build on last week’s win in their chase for the AFC East crown.

Javonte Williams | DAL (vs LAC)

Javonte Williams signed a one-year prove-it deal with Dallas this offseason, and he’s earned himself a nice deal ahead of the 2026 season with over 1,100 rushing yards and 12 scores.

Against the Vikings on Sunday, he missed a large portion of the first half due to a shoulder injury, but he returned and still got his standard 15+ attempts for a sixth consecutive game.

Williams is the clear-cut RB1 in an offense that moves the ball and figures to play to the final whistle this season. Last week was the third time this season he picked up yardage on 100% of his rush attempts, and it was the seventh time in eight games he handed out 4+ red-zone touches.

He’s not usually flashy, but he has been a rock-solid RB2 all season long and should continue to be viewed as such.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (at DET)

Jaylen Warren has caught multiple passes in 12 of 13 games this season, but it’s becoming clear why this team never extended his role during the Najee Harris era.

Over his past two games, Warren has turned 20 carries into 46 yards, and those struggles have come against the Ravens and Dolphins, not the ‘85 Bears.

We are now more than a month removed from his last rush that gained more than a dozen yards, and that makes him a near-impossible sell. He did hold a 3-1 red zone touch edge over Kenneth Gainwell on Monday night. He was RB2 in terms of snaps, routes, and touches in the win over Miami.

I’d rather not play either Steeler running back this week. If forced to choose, Warren gets the nod due to projected game script, but you’re trying to thread an awfully thin needle to talk yourself into him being a top 25 play this weekend.

Jaylen Wright | MIA (vs CIN)

One week after an impressive showing when filling in for a banged-up De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright took the field for four snaps against the Steelers.

Who the backup is to Achane will be a worthwhile conversation this summer and something we need to sort out ahead of 2026 drafts, but for now, it’s clear that it doesn’t matter.

If you want to speculate on Achane being shut down, Wright over Ollie Gordon would be my lean, but that’s something we haven’t heard discussed.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (vs PHI)

With Chris Rodriguez inactive, we essentially got an even split between Jacory Croskey-Merritt (55.2% snap share) and Jeremy McNichols (46.6%) in the win over the Giants.

While the snap share was close to even, the fantasy roles weren’t (Croskey-Merritt got the only red zone touch for this backfield and finished with an 18-10 touch advantage).

If we were in the middle of the season, I’d have an optimistic-sounding breakdown. Something along the lines of “there is work on the ground to chase and he’s the only back in town that is fluid as a route runner” would be my take.

That’s true, but in Week 16 of a lost season, it’s hard to express much in the way of short-term optimism.

He turned nine carries into just six yards on Sunday. The 16-yard grab was good to see, and the limitations of his teammates give him a direct path to work, but not nearly enough in a below-average offense.

Look elsewhere, even if it’s in the form of a player that is an injury away from mattering.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs SF)

Jonathan Taylor totaled 101 scrimmage yards last week, the first following the Daniel Jones injury.

At face value, that sounds good, but dig a little deeper, and you’ll see why we continue to sweat his stock.

It took the All World RB 28 touches to get to that yardage total, and the limited TD equity came to fruition with him matching a season low in red zone touches (two). There simply weren’t holes presented for him, and that projects as a lasting problem (two of his four worst YPC before contact games this season have come over the past two weeks).

On Sunday, just 4% of his carries gained 10+ yards, the second-worst effort of his season. This 49ers matchup doesn’t worry me (29th in success rate against RBs this season), and that should allow the sheer level of volume to land JT among the top 12 producers at the position, but his path to Tier 1 production isn’t clear to me.

Jordan Mason | MIN (at NYG)

It would appear that the Vikings want the veteran presence of Aaron Jones on the field to help facilitate the development of JJ McCarthy, and that’s coming at the cost of Jordan Mason.

Against the Cowboys on Sunday night, Mason was on the field for just 34.6% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps, and the opening script was even more concerning (one of nine snaps in the first quarter).

The fade here isn’t complicated. Mason hasn’t had multiple turrets in a game since Week 5 and is averaging just 5.3 PPR PPG this season in games in which he doesn’t score.

RELATED: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool

I’m not saying you have to feel good about Jones in this offense, but I am saying that it doesn’t make sense to hold onto Mason with him sitting outside of my top 40 at the position.

Josh Jacobs | GB (at CHI)

A slight level of panic was swirling through the fantasy group chats I’m part of after Josh Jacobs (knee) missed practice time this week.

All of that stress was for nothing as Green Bay’s bellcow scored a pair of touchdowns and totaled 92 scrimmage yards against Denver. He had an ankle-breaking 40-yard TD run, and that wasn’t even the highlight of his afternoon.

Jacobs’ impact as a pass catcher has been up-and-down, but his TD catch on Sunday will go on the season recap hype video for the Packers. He completed a contested play in the end zone from 14 yards out, leaving Tony Romo to praise his “Randy Moss hands”.

OK, that might be overdoing it, but you get the idea. He looked great physically, and with the defense now in a pinch after Micah Parsons was lost for the season, look for Green Bay to try to ride #8 to a victory this week.

He’s averaging 19.3 touches per game in 2025, and I’d bet the “over” on that total in this spot in the oldest rivalry in the spot. Jacobs (86 yards and a TD in Week 14 against these Bears) is my RB9 for Week 16.

Kareem Hunt | KC (at TEN)

We don’t exactly know what this offense will look like over the next three weeks, with Kansas City eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday.

That said, I think we can pretty safely avoid Kareem Hunt without fear of leaving a big week on the bench.

On Sunday, he played two more snaps than Isiah Pacheco, but he had four fewer touches. More important than the raw touch count was where those opportunities did/didn’t come.

Red Zone Touch Distribution

• Week 15: Pacheco leads Hunt 5-1
• Weeks 1-14: Hunt averaged 2.8 per game to Pacheco’s 1.1

This backfield might well hold value this week, but I’m not comfortable in betting on that being the case for two backs, and, based on what we just saw, Pacheco projects as the leader of this backfield.

Keaton Mitchell | BAL (vs NE)

A knee injury wasn’t enough to keep Keaton Mitchell out of the lineup on Sunday, and he continued to appear to be shot out of a cannon every time he got handed the ball.

For the season, he’s turned 39 carries into 295 yards (7.6 yards per carry). With a similar size profile, he feels a little like De’Von Achane, but without the role.

That’s obviously a top 5% runout for what he could be if given the opportunity, but he’ll be an interesting player to rank for 2026. When it comes to this week, I’m not as interested. We got waves of Derrick Henry last week, and if they want to take down the Pats, they are going to need him to wear them down in the same way James Cook did.

Mitchell doesn’t need a 15-18 touch role to emerge as a lineup-worthy player, but he needs more than the 4-8 that he is currently getting.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (at DET)

Jaylen Warren entered Week 15 with an illness, and that likely played into the RB rotation on Monday night:

• Kenneth Gainwell: 48.4% snaps, 15 routes, 20 touches (1 red zone)
• Warren: 43.5% snaps, 13 routes, 15 touches (3 red zone)

That said, it is clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts the former Eagle (57 catches on 65 targets this season), and that goes a long way for a team that is chasing a divisional title.

I do worry some about the scoring equity, but not enough to keep him out of the flex conversation. Gainwell has just one rushing TD since September, but he did get there twice through the air in a game against an opponent with offensive upside, and that is certainly the matchup this week.

I don’t think either Pittsburgh back is a must-play, but in a low-octane offense like this, both should be viewed as viable options.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs LAR)

At this point, you know the team: explosive talent with limited touch upside and minimal scoring equity.

The Seahawks gave him their first five carries on Sunday against the Colts, begging him to establish himself as the leader of this backfield, and he rewarded them with … six yards.

It was a split with Zach Charbonnet from then on out, and that meant a lot of nothing for fantasy managers. Walker has been held under a dozen carries in three of his past four games and has scored just one TD since September.

It should be noted that he totaled 111 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with these Rams. He picked up yardage on all 16 of his carries, and I think that’s probably enough to earn him an extended first-quarter look again, but that assures us of nothing.

I have Walker ranked as RB25 this week, fully knowing that if he hits, I’m way too low, and if not, I’m 20 spots too high.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (at DAL)

Over the last two weeks, Kimani Vidal has turned his 26 carries into 77 yards with a long gain of eight yards.

He’s trying to fend off Omarion Hampton in what is labeled as a hot hand backfield, but his grip on the lead role is loose, if not already gone.

We did see Justin Herbert get him in space last week with a play-action scheme that saw him circle back for a screen that picked up 15 yards. He’s not a bad option for the Chargers, but he doesn’t offer nearly the same juice as Hampton, and that has him ranked closer to the handcuffs than the Zach Charbonnet’s of the world.

Kyle Monangai | CHI (vs GB)

Caleb Williams is the obvious answer when it comes to which Bear stands to benefit the most from the Micah Parsons injury, but Kyle Monangai might be second on that list.

He carried 14 times for 57 yards in the first meeting with the back, and with him holding the bruising role of this committee-ish situation, he figures to have more blocking help this time around as they won’t have to allocate as many resources to Green Bay’s game-wrecker.

Monangai has fallen into the 37-47% snap share bucket in seven of his past nine games, and that’s meant 11-15 touches in four of his past five. The ceiling isn’t all that high, but I do expect him to handle the work inside the 10-yard line of a game that could see 50 points scored.

I have D’Andre Swift ahead of him, but even if more of a secondary role, he cracks my top 30 at the position.

Kyren Williams | LAR (at SEA)

It was a Kyren Williams game in Week 11 when these teams first met (12-91-1 on the ground while Blake Corum ran eight times for 10 yards), and with him coming off of his third multi-TD effort of the season, he projects as the lead back, even if it’s not in a bellcow capacity.

My concern for him is the passing game. He had eight catches against the Niners back in Week 5, but he hasn’t caught more than two balls in a game since. That creates a floor situation that is uncomfortable should a short TD not go his way or Corum score from distance.

That said, with TD vulture Davante Adams sidelined, Williams’ role in close is more valuable this week than most, and that positions him to be a top 15 RB to kick off this week.

Michael Carter | ARI (vs ATL)

They say that to survive a bear attack in the woods, you don’t have to be faster than the animal (did you know that a Grizzly Bear can hit a top speed of 35 MPH? Don’t you dare say you didn’t learn anything from this article), you just have to be faster than the other prey it is chasing.

When it comes to this backfield, you don’t have to be a good running back; you just have to be healthier than those around you, and that’s currently an awfully low bar to clear.

Michael Carter is averaging 3.3 yards per carry this season, and New Year’s Eve 2023 was the last time he had a run gain of more than 15 yards. It’s difficult to paint an overly optimistic picture for Carter himself, and even the matchup isn’t as great as it once was (Bucky Irving averaged 3.8 yards per carry in this spot last Thursday night). Still, he should get the work, and there’s value in volume in December.

Assuming that Carter is the lead man in this backfield for Week 16, he’ll settle around my RB30. That’s not viable in most situations, but it’s a nice defensive roster move to give your opposition one fewer path to touches.

Nick Chubb | HOU (vs LV)

Nick Chubb was questionable for much of the work week, but the rib injury suffered in Week 14 was deemed too much for the veteran to overcome and resulted in his first DNP of the season.

Before last week, he’d been active for the Texans every week, but fantasy managers haven’t looked this direction for quite some time, and that should continue to be the approach.

You have more receiving yards than Chubb over the past month, and he hasn’t reached a dozen carries in a game since October. Regardless of what you think about Woody Marks, he’s the clear lead in this backfiel,d and that leaves us without a real path for a perfectly healthy Chubb to get enough work to be worthy of our attention.

His status for this weekend will impact my confidence a touch in Marks, but not in an actionable way: the rookie remains a low-end RB2 for me, and Chubb isn’t remotely close to my radar.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (vs CIN)

We can try to pin the tail on the backup Miami RB this summer as we look to protect the first-round investment on De’Von Achane, but at this point, there’s no need to be holding a Dolphin handcuff.

Ollie Gordon has handled more than five carries just three times this season, and the success has been limited at best (3.2 YPC). He suffered an ankle injury on Monday night, potentially paving the way for Jaylen Wright to finish this season as the secondary option, but that role hasn’t held value all year, and it’s too late to bet against Achane’s health.

Omarion Hampton | LAC (at DAL)

OC Greg Roman confirmed during the week that the hot hand in the Bolts’ backfield will “get the bulk of the work” as the regular season comes to a close. All information is good information to have, but if you’re reading between the lines, he’s basically telling us we’re in charge of ranking these players to go kick rocks.

“Hot hand”, at face value, is the worst possible label for a backfield.

But I’m not buying it in this case.

Omarion Hampton played just 37.1% of the snaps last week, but look at these usage trends, and you tell me who this offense wants to feature.

Week 15 RB Roles at Chiefs

• Hampton: 16 touches on 23 snaps
• Kimani Vidal: 13 touches on 39 snaps

This duo combined to run for 94 yards on 27 carries (3.5 yards per carry) and earned two targets. Hampton had the lone splashy carry (26-yard gain) while Vidal had the catch of significance (15 yards).

Neither hand got hot in any sort of way, but Roman clearly felt more obligated to get his explosive rookie opportunities when he was on the field than he did for Vidal. I’ve got Hampton labeled as a viable RB2 across all formats, ranking ahead of Breece Hall and Ashton Jeanty.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (vs BUF)

Quinshon Judkins was a volume play early in the season, and this offense has failed to improve around him, leaving us to keep chasing quantity over quality.

The rookie hasn’t had a 20-yard rush since mid-October and has gained over 100% of his yards after first contact in three of his past four games. Injuries around him (Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson) keep him viable for as long as the game stays competitive, and with 3+ targets in all three games during this losing streak, there is some hope that he can give you RB2 production even if the Bills were to separate.

You’re not playing Judkins this week because you are in love with his profile; you’re doing it because of the matchup. Four times this season, an RB has topped 30 PPR points in this matchup, and even if that’s not in the cards, five of the past seven lead backs have cleared their regular-season average.

A rookie tore apart this defense a week ago. While this Cleveland offense doesn’t offer the type of versatility that TreVeyon Henderson benefited from in Week 14, he should be viewed as a reasonable floor option during your fantasy semis.

Rachaad White | TB (at CAR)

Rachaad White got his first carry on the second drive last week and made it count. It was a hard-nosed run that picked up 20 yards, his longest run of the season.

He got one more touch the rest of the night.

His resume speaks for itself: he’s not an average runner between the tackles, an opinion that the Bucs proved to us on Thursday night that they share. In the loss, 68% of his snaps were routes run, and that’s just not going to cut it when this backfield is at full strength.

Irving is just as savvy as White in space as a pass catcher, so why take the starter off the field?

White is going to be on the field more than Sean Tucker, but if I had to pick a secondary Buccaneer RB to gamble on in a do-or-die spot, I’d rather chase the touchdown equity of Tucker.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at BAL)

Rhamondre Stevenson took advantage of a plus matchup last week against the Bills by turning nine touches into 77 yards.

Imagine putting up that stat line and being the third biggest rushing storyline on your own team.

Drake Maye had a pair of rushing TDs inside the 10-yard line, and TreVeyon Henderson hit a few home runs, as per usual, on his way to a 14-148-2 rushing line.

Stevenson was effective, but every carry he gets is one that his uniquely gifted teammates aren’t getting, and is thus a win for the defense. He paced the Pats in backfield snaps in the home loss last week, and that might continue to be the case, but his upside isn’t the same as Henderson, and with the abilities of Maye, there just isn’t enough work available to rank him as a viable flex.

I expect Stevenson to be viewed as a high-priority handcuff next season, and that’s closer to where I stand on him this week than as a real threat to hit lineups.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (vs TB)

Neither Rico Dowdle nor Chuba Hubbard had a run gain of more than 10 yards or saw multiple targets on Sunday in New Orleans.

The Panthers averaged just five yards per play and did a lot of nothing while they were on the field. Dowdle held a 33-24 snap edge over Hubbard and, thanks to a tough TD run, he didn’t sink your matchup with 12.4 PPR points.

He’s been under 3.5 yards per carry in four of his past five games and has seen his target count dip in three straight: things are headed in the wrong direction, and a Bucs defense that is stout against interior runs makes a reversal of fortune tough to bank on.

I prefer Dowdle to Hubbard with 15 touches, feeling like something of a floor, but my expectations are low for this offense, and even a moderate committee situation makes this a backfield that carries quite a bit of downside.

RJ Harvey | DEN (vs JAX)

RJ Harvey continues to see his volume on the ground rise (11-13-17-19 carry counts over his past four games) with four rushing scores over his past three games. For a player with a physical build (5’8”, 205 pounds), he’s fluid in space and comfortable in just about any offensive setting.

Sunday was his first reception-less contest of the season. While that certainly hurt his ceiling (his first lost fumble of the season didn’t help either), the ability for this rookie to earn the trust of Sean Payton in scoring spots (four straight with 4+ red zone touches) is a stabilizing force for his fantasy value.

Bo Nix was the only other Bronco with more than two carries against the Packers, and it appears that this team is settling into their postseason offensive structure: Harvey on the ground and Courtland Sutton (10 targets) with a heavy usage rate through the air. Denver is rounding into form on this side of the ball at the perfect time, and I very much expect their Big Three to remain productive for the remainder of this season.

Harvey is a strong RB2 across all formats, especially if you’re like me and think that his strong role in the passing game is likely to reappear sooner than later.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (at WAS)

The plan was simple: eight touches for Saquon Barkley on the first drive.

That doesn’t happen by accident, and with him adding his sixth rushing score of the season in the second quarter, Barkley was able to do enough to justify starting him, even if the efficiency remains a battle (3.5 yards per carry against the Raiders, 3.9 this season).

The touchdown was his shortest of the season and a nice reminder that this offense isn’t 100% reliant on the Tush Push inside of the five-yard line.

The starters for Philadelphia didn’t play in the fourth quarter, thus making his 24 touches all the more impressive. The big play potential pretty clearly isn’t what it was a season ago, but if the volume is going to be this stable (17+ touches in seven of his past eight), he’s going to hit your lineup with consistency.

If there’s a spot for him to have a ceiling game, this is it. Barkley enters this week having scored multiple touchdowns in each of his past four against the Commanders.

Sean Tucker | TB (at CAR)

This Tampa Bay backfield is a committee in the sense that all three parties have specific roles, but not in the sense that those roles are equal in value.

Sean Tucker played just seven snaps on Thursday night against the Falcons, but six of them came in the red zone, and he cashed in the one-inch touchdown in the first half to fuel his outing of Rachaad White and nearly catching Bucky Irving.

He’s a touchdown vulture and nothing more. The Bucs value him, but with Irving healthy, he’s pigeon-holed into a very low-volume role and, to be honest, I’m not even 100% sure that a carry inside the five-yard line automatically goes this direction.

If you want to roster Tucker as a way of blocking your opponent from getting a TD-friendly role in the most important game of the week, have at it, but I can’t imagine starting him in anything but the most desperate of situations, a spot you’re hopefully not in during the fantasy semis.

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs KC)

My wife teaches at a local high school, and every year, she’ll lament a kid who is simply going to run out of time. He/she struggled with motivation and grades early, lost hope, experienced some sort of growing up moment, and sees the light bulb go on as summer nears

Better grades feel good for the kid, but passing the year was a mathematical impossibility by the middle of May.

Tony Pollard is that kid.

He didn’t have a single top-15 finish at the position (PPR) before these last two weeks and sank you by routinely finishing outside of the top 30 at the position. But now, with your season possibly over and confidence in him almost certainly zero, he’s the second running back this season with consecutive games of 100 rushing yards and a rushing score.

He’s gained yardage on every carry in two of his past three games and generally looks like a different player. If you’ve managed to make it this far with him on your roster, you play him as a top 20 option. Tennessee is clearly trying to develop Cam Ward down the stretch this season, so while the games mean nothing in the standings, they are motivated to compete.

The Chiefs are a tough matchup, but this team now officially has nothing to play for, and the Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL) injury has this franchise looking forward to finishing this season.

The floor remains a concern (three red zone touches over his past five games), but he has form and volume, two boxes that are tough to check in December.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at DEN)

Travis Etienne had a total of two targets in Weeks 13-14, so who didn’t see him becoming the eighth running back this millennium with a three-TD reception game on Sunday?

The more we know, the more we don’t know.

He’s averaged under four yards per carry in three straight games and six of his past seven, efficiency issues that figure to persist against a rock-solid Denver defense, even if they are coming off a game where Josh Jacobs ran 12 times for 73 yards against them.

I’m conflicted.

The upward trajectory of Trevor Lawrence naturally adds to the projection of Etienne, but we are also talking about a player who doubled his career TD reception total in 60 minutes. I’m tempted to take a pessimistic view, but not enough to knock him too far down the ranks.

He remains a top-20 play for me thanks to his consistent volume. I’m picking the Broncos in this game, and Etienne is averaging 10.6 PPR points (15.1% below expectations) in Jacksonville’s last three defeats. This offense has evolved since the Jakobi Meyers trade, and that’s real growth, but this is a matchup that can make you uncomfortable, and with this offense largely being one-dimensional of late, the floor is low.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (at BAL)

This is a split backfield where multiple running backs get usage.

Usage, of course, doesn’t mean productive.

Quarters 2-4 vs. Buffalo

• TreVeyon Henderson: 15 snaps, 7 routes, 26.6 PPR points
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 23 snaps, 15 routes, 4.9 PPR points

These two running backs are not the same. Henderson hit on two explosive runs (TDs of 52 and 65 yards), and while those plays aren’t stable week-to-week, there is no denying that some players are more likely to connect on the game-breaking plays than others.

Since 2000, 50+ Yard Rush TD Leaders, Rookies

• 4: Saquon Barkley (2018)
• 4: TreVeyon Henderson (2025)
• 3: Adrian Peterson (2007)
• 2: 12-way tie

A shoestring tackle kept him out of the end zone on a first-quarter carry, and it really is this simple: the Patriots are in scoring position the second the rookie touches the ball.

Stevenson isn’t going away, that much we know. We’ve seen Henderson’s role fluctuate weekly, almost regardless of what has happened in the games prior, and I’d be shocked if Stevenson wasn’t given his 9-13 touches that seem to be treated as a birthright.

That said, the hierarchy isn’t a question. Henderson is a starter who offers more reward than risk in Week 16 and for years to come.

Trey Benson | ARI (vs ATL)

Last Wednesday, the Cardinals failed to activate Trey Benson (knee) within the allotted window, thus ending the season of the 23-year-old running back.

Through two seasons, we have 111 touches from Benson to form an opinion, and he’s checked the efficiency boxes (4.9 yards per carry, 5.2 yards per touch, and an 86.4% catch rate). One career touchdown isn’t ideal, but we did see him score 15 times during his final season at Florida State, so I’m holding out hope that he can be a fantasy asset if featured in an above-average offense.

Benson has two years left on his rookie deal, and this Arizona offense might enter 2026 with a different structure than in 2025: he should have every chance to be the lead back and a top-20 performer at the position in our game.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs KC)

This late-season Tony Pollard run was supposed to be Tyjae Spears’.

Not that the 24-year-old has given us much proof that he can sustain RB2 value, but the idea is that this team is playing out the string and should be in evaluation mode.

The back-to-back 100+ yard games for Pollard are nice to see, but are they instructive to this organization in any way?

Spears played 40.8% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps in San Francisco, his second-lowest rate this season, and it resulted in him earning just a pair of targets, his lowest since his season debut in Week 5.

The Titans are clearly not comfortable in handing him the rock (yet to hit 10 carries in a game this season and under five totes in four of his past five), and maybe that tells us all we need to know about his future fantasy prospects.

I’m not sure that Spears is viewed as a part of this Cam Ward offense long-term, but I am sure that there is no reason to hold onto him for the final two weeks this season with the hope that things all of a sudden flip in his direction.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at ARI)

With eight touchdowns this season, Tyler Allgeier has been more a pair in the side of Bijan Robinson managers than a realistic flex option and that’s the bucket in which I have him in this week as well.

Last week was the sixth time this season in which Atlanta’s RB2 has been held under five carries, and with 48.5% of his PPR points coming on touchdowns, there’s far more risk than reward in flexing a profile like this.

Maybe he scores and threatens to reach double-digit points. At best, that’s keeping you competitive, a ceiling that isn’t of interest to me, with a near-zero floor that could result in you being sent home.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs MIN)

And we thought this might be a split backfield?

Week 15 RB Participation Date

• Tyrone Tracy: 51 snaps, 30 routes, 18 touches (three in the red zone)
• Devin Singletary: 16 snaps, 8 routes, 6 touches (one on the red zone)

He wasn’t just given that extended role; he earned it by picking up yardage on 14 of his 15 carries against the Commanders and making the most of his receiving background by turning a red zone wheel route into an 18-yard touchdown.

The TD run was anything but a cheap one, as he put his shoulder down and kept his legs moving for the 12-yard score. It was an ultra-impressive showing, and he took all intrigue out of this backfield usage by excelling from the jump.

The upside of this offense is limited, and a wide range of outcomes is certainly in play in a matchup like this, but at least we have role clarity, and that’s good enough to rank as an RB2 in all formats for Week 16.

Woody Marks | HOU (vs LV)

Week 15 was a rollercoaster ride if you played Woody Marks.

First, we got word that Nick Chubb was inactive, leaving the rookie in a position to soak up all the work he could handle in a plus matchup with the Cardinals.

We then saw the Texans hit on a bomb to Nico Collins and force a turnover. This game was 10-0 before Arizona knew what hit them, putting Marks in a great spot to benefit from the game script.

He wasn’t overly impressive early (seven carries for 30 yards), but at least he was getting work. Houston got to the goal line, and that’s when things got weird.

It looked like the play was a designed RB dive after Marks had already failed once to score, but the snap never got off the ground. It went cleanly through the legs of Stroud, and Marks had the presence of mind to scoop and score.

It was a heads-up play, but it also carried some weird scoring mechanics that affected different leagues differently. Because he picked up a live ball, it was ruled a fumble recovery TD and not a rushing touchdown.

Most leagues rewarded you all the same, and it’s a good thing. Shortly thereafter, Marks rolled his ankle and was ruled out for the remainder of the game.

All reporting this week suggests that the injury isn’t a serious one and that he’s expected to play in Week 16. Jawhar Jordan was the back getting work in his absence, and he’s worth a look for roster depth. Marks is the RB this team wants leading them, but it is fair to question if they lighten his workload some this week to ensure that he’s recovered.

I’m starting him where he is. The Raiders are the fifth-worst rush defense by success rate, and while I’d prefer to see more of a role in the passing game, a 14-17 carry game should be more than enough to land him inside the top 20 at the position this week.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs LAR)

It would appear that the Seahawks are begging Kenneth Walker to take control of this backfield by giving him almost all of the early work, but he’s been unable to capitalize.

That’s bad for everyone.

Snap Rates, Week 15 vs. Colts

• Kenneth Walker: 87.5% in Q1, 35.3% after that
• Charbonnet: 12.5% in Q1, 60.8% after that

Zach Charbonnet is averaging 3.7 yards per carry with 14 targets for the season. His role/skill set isn’t meant to be fantasy relevant if he’s not scoring touchdowns, and as his involvement in the early scripted plays declines, those scoring opportunities, even in a good offense, stand to be few and far between.

On Sunday against the Colts, he ran eight times for 31 yards, nearly identical to the 11 for 37 line he put up in the first meeting with these Rams.

He has the red zone role (eight rushing scores this season) and is the clear “well, if Walker isn’t going to do anything productive, let’s pivot” option, but that’s pretty tough to bank on pregame, as the touch projection isn’t going to clear 10 with any level of confidence.

When these teams first met, it was a race to 20 points, and in that sort of game atmosphere, there’s even less upside for a player like Charbonnet than normal.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (at WAS)

Philadelphia blew out the Raiders and benched their regulars in the fourth quarter of a game where AJ Brown didn’t record a catch in the first half.

If that were all you knew about Week 15, you’d feel blessed to see 12.1 PPR points in your box score.

The Eagles simply weren’t pushed. On the few occasions when they elected to be aggressive, they delivered, and that allowed Brown to get into your box score with a 27-yard TD.

From the glass-is-half-full department, Brown’s average touchdown length has been over 21 yards every season of his career, and 2025 is no different. His 62.7% catch rate is far from ideal and is a result of his aDOT being as high as it’s been since his rookie season.

That said, he torched these Commanders last season (8-97-1 in the December meeting and 6-96-1 in the NFC Title game), and thanks to the impact he can make in your matchup via a single play, he’s a lineup lock.

The range of outcomes is just something you have to deal with.

Adonai Mitchell | NYJ (at NO)

Adonai Mitchell has seen at least six targets in all five of his games with the Jets and has a 20+ yard reception in four straight.

This is the type of player you make sure isn’t on the waiver wire. You probably won’t play him, this offense is average on a good day with the potential to be the worst in the league in any given week, but you don’t want your opponent to have access to a role like this that can be bet on in case of an emergency (Rome Odunze managers would have loved to have a 6+ target player to plug in at the last minute last week).

Mitchell’s looks weren’t an accident on Sunday. Brady Cook hit him for a nine-yard TD early, and there was a designed comeback route on a third down in the second quarter to move the sticks. He held a 38.5% target share in the first 30 minutes, and that’s hard to find at this point in the season.

He’s comfortably outside of my top 30: the best offense can be a good defense, and rostering him takes one out away from your opposition.

Alec Pierce | IND (vs SF)

Alec Pierce made a critical catch on the final drive.

That’s the good.

The bad was every other second of the game.

That was the only target that Pierce earned on 28 routes, the second time during this four-game skid in which he cleared 25 routes and only caught a single pass. He was capitalizing on highly variant targets at a crazy rate early in the season as Daniel Jones got off to a hot start. But those times are gone, and this Philip Rivers-led offense obviously runs differently.

I don’t think the rib injury was prohibitive in any way over the weekend: he’s a square peg in this round hole offense.

Pierce’s skill set comes with upside, but in practice, that upside is hard to count on given how this offense is forced to operate these days.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs PIT)

Amon-Ra St. Brown has earned at least 28% of Jared Goff’s targets in 11 of his 13 healthy games this season, with Sunday in Los Angeles easily being the highest of the season (48.6%).

He had nine catches on 20 first-half routes and was unguardable for all 60 minutes against a very strong Rams defense. For the game, he had three catches deep downfield and four of less than five yards. In the slot, out wide, short of the chains, or well past it: St. Brown’s case to be considered a Tier 1 receiver for 2026 got a significant boost over the weekend.

At 26 years old, he already has a resume that includes four 1,100-yard seasons and three straight years with double-digit TD receptions. The Lions need a lot of help to qualify for the postseason, but you won’t find me betting against St. Brown in any capacity when playing at home with Jared Goff under center.

He’s a Tier 1 receiver this week, the rest of this season, and is a strong first-round pick next year. He’s evolving faster as a receiver as coverages are around him: more of the same should be expected in 2026.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at DEN)

Don’t look now, but could Brian Thomas be rounding into form?

OK, so that’s a bit dramatic after three months of struggling, but Week 15 was certainly a step in the right direction, even if it came against the listless Jets.

In the win, he earned a 25% target share (his highest mark since the Jakobi Meyers trade and second best of the season) and saw three end zone targets. It was the fourth straight game he scored above his target-based expectation, and he was clearly a focal point in the scripted plays (he had a 16-yard catch on the first drive, a drive he ended up finishing with a four-yard score).

I still think Meyers offers a more advantageous median outcome, but if there is one WR on this team who posts a top-10 week, BTJ gets my vote. With 100+ air yards in four of his past six, there’s a chance he can make one long target, even in a tough matchup, worth your while.

I’ve got him ranked as a strong flex in the game I am most interested in evaluating this week.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs LAC)

CeeDee Lamb benefited from the extended week and was able to clear concussion protocol heading into last week.

He was a headache for the Vikings for much of the night, catching six passes and picking up 110 yards to keep Dallas competitive in a game where they were outplayed.

It was his third straight game with at least that many yards through the air and his sixth such performance of the season (Ja’Marr Chase and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the only other players that can claim that many such games this, not bad company considering that Lamb missed nearly a month). The George Pickens momentum has halted in recent weeks, and that’s why it was silly ever to suggest that there was a realistic discussion to be had as to who the WR1 in Dallas was.

Being the top receiver doesn’t mean always being the most productive: it means being the best combination of productive and consistent, something that Lamb is on an absolutely elite level.

Chimere Dike | TEN (vs KC)

It’s OK to be encouraged by a rookie receiver playing with a rookie quarterback and not acting on it.

I think that’s where we are with Chimere Dike.

The fourth-round pick has 4+ catches in three of his past four games, but with his 15 catches over that stretch picking up just 93 yards, there’s not much upside to chase in an offense that rarely threatens the painted area.

If you want to sell me on Dike being treated next August like Wan’Dale Robinson was this past August (low aDOT, high volume PPR asset), I’ll listen and even cosign it. But for the remainder of 2025, I think you can do better.

Chris Godwin Jr. | TB (at CAR)

Chris Godwin had an octopus on Thursday night against the Falcons, pulling a tough fantasy day out of the fire in the process.

With Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan both returning from injury, Godwin was the primary slot option, but very much an afterthought outside of the touchdown and the accompanying two-pointer (his first target came halfway through the second quarter).

I still think you’re OK to flex him in PPR formats.

He ran a route on 38-of-40 dropbacks last week and has looked good when given the opportunity over the past three weeks. The range of outcomes is wider this week than it was before this WR got healthy, but his unique skill set still projects well in an offense that trusts its QB at a high level and is in a must-win spot.

Chris Olave | NO (vs NYJ)

Chris Olave was left in single coverage, and Tyler Shough took advantage to get him into the end zone and give this team a chance to beat a motivated Panthers team.

The final stat line isn’t going to finish among the top 10 at the position this season, but Olave’s ability to make the most of this situation has me higher on him now than I was at the beginning of the season.

The Jets just coughed up 48 points in Jacksonville, so you’re starting him without much of a thought, but I’m more talking about next season. In theory, he’ll have more support around him, and that should boost his efficiency.

I won’t spoil my 2026 rankings, but I’m going to like New Orleans’ WR1 more than you and I’m perfectly OK with it.

Christian Watson | GB (at CHI)

There are a lot of moving pieces here, but the most important advice I can give is to keep an ear to the ground.

Christian Watson was injured on a deep pass last week, a ball that Patrick Surtain picked off while Watson hit the cold field without the ability to brace himself.

The team ended up labeling it as a chest injury, and they actually sent him to the local hospital to get checked out for lung damage, but he cleared the needed steps and traveled home with the team.

He was able to avoid serious injury, though that doesn’t mean he is a lock to play on Saturday. He’s appeared in just 46 games across his four NFL seasons, so it’s not as if we have the picture of health here, and as much as I hate the Green Bay WR depth chart (too many similar players without a true top threat), they are uniquely positioned to withstand an absence should they need to.

As of right now, I’ve got Watson on the wrong side of questionable and carrying too much risk to count on. That said, you will have a clear picture of his status ahead of time due to the early kickoff of this game, and that helps.

It was just two weeks ago that he turned four targets into 89 yards and a pair of scores in this very matchup. That’s not to say he’s a must-play, should he be active, but more of a reminder that this aerial attack can have success in this critical spot.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (vs LAR)

Cooper Kupp caught five of seven targets on Sunday against the Colts in a surprisingly competitive game. It was his third game with at least a handful of receptions this season and his first since Week 5.

It’s noise.

I’m not counting on this level of involvement in a short week. The Seahawks couldn’t run the ball over the weekend (22 carries for 50 yards), and that led to more volume through the air than normal. Kupp accounted for just under 17% of Seattle’s receiving yards, and if that rate sustains, he’s not going to be close to viable most weeks.

Rashid Shaheed is looking slightly more comfortable in this offense with each passing week, and AJ Barner saw another six targets over the weekend. What we got in Week 15 was on the high end of expectations, and is 9.6 PPR points really the type of ceiling you want to be chasing?

Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs JAX)

There have been waves.

Through the first month of the season, Courtland Sutton looked like the WR1 that we came into the season expecting him to be. As the season wore on, however, there was some Troy Franklin steam and, entering last week, Pat Bryant was the hot name on the rise for this Denver team that just doesn’t lose games anymore.

We seem to be back on track with Sutton, and that means you should feel fine about starting him.

Against the Packers, he and Bo Nix hooked up on a double move that was executed to perfection (42-yard gain), and he came through with a full extension 14-yard touchdown in the third quarter, where the Broncos needed a spark in the worst way.

I understand that last week was Sutton’s first 100-yard game since September (heck, his first 70-yard effort since the middle of October), but with a target share north of 27% in consecutive games, I think we have a clear answer as to who sits atop Nix’s priority list.

Darius Slayton | NYG (vs MIN)

Darius Slayton caught Jaxson Dart’s first pass of Week 15’s loss to the Commanders (19-yard gain), and I do think his profile is a little more appealing now than it has been with the Giants calling fewer designed runs for their standout, but concussion magnet, rookie QB.

No designed runs means more scrambling behind the line of scrimmage and thus time for Slayton to do his thing down the field.

We saw him get a step in that vein last week, but he ultimately couldn’t handle an over-the-shoulder target that would have been good for a score from 35 yards out.

Slayton hasn’t cleared five catches in a game this season, and that lack of volume brings with it plenty of risk, obviously. That said, if this is Week 1 of a two-week playoff final and you want to take on some risk, I don’t think this is a crazy direction to turn.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (at ARI)

Who needs Darnell Mooney when you have the greatest tight end of all time?

Mooney showed us a nice connection with Kirk Cousins in 2024 and hauled in a 49-yard TD in his first start post-Michael Penix injury, but he’s been an afterthought ever since, even with Drake London sidelined.

He’s totaled just 66 yards on 15 targets over the past three weeks and has been held without a 20+ yard reception over that stretch. On Thursday night, David Sills V had a bad drop, yet he still finished with as many catches as Mooney had targets and was part of a condensed attack from Cousins (Sills, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts combined to earn 33 of 41 targets, 80.5%).

It was a reasonable add to make a month ago in the hope of making good on the chemistry from last season, but that ship has clearly sailed, and there’s no reason to hold onto him at this point.

Davante Adams | LAR (at SEA)

Davante Adams entered Week 15 with a hamstring injury and exited the week with it getting worse.

All signs point to him missing this game on short rest and, based on the first meeting (a one-yard TD being his only reception on eight targets), maybe that’s a blessing in disguise for fantasy managers in the semifinals.

Before the injury, he earned nine targets against the Lions, his most since Week 5, and while he only hauled in four (71 yards), that level of involvement would have me singing an optimistic tune given the value of where those targets come from for the veteran.

There isn’t a receiver that has my eye in Los Angeles. Still, this injury does open the door for Colby “the scoring machine” Parkinson to continue his surge as a viable streaming option at the position, something I never saw coming.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (vs PHI)

Deebo Samuel ended up leading the Commanders in targets against the Giants, but it was a game where Washington had 21 more rush attempts than aimed passes, and any game where that’s the case, you’re walking an awfully thin line.

Terry McLaurin hit the one splash play that this offense offered, and that left no meat on the bone for Samuel (43 yards). There was a momentary spike in production for the offensive weapon before the Week 12 bye (TD catch in consecutive games). Still, the yardage simply hasn’t been nearly stable enough to make him a viable flex play: three games with 75+ receiving yards this season and under 45 eight times.

If you’re considering Samuel this week, you’re making a decision based on a career resume rather than a current role, and that’s a mistake.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (at WAS)

Over the past four weeks, DeVonta Smith has had catches of 28, 30, 41, and 44 yards.

That feels like I’m setting up a positive note, but I’ve got a heel turn for you.

He’s WR36 on a per-game basis over that stretch.

He’s been hitting on one chunk play and then disappearing. Last week was a little different because of the blowout, but in the two weeks prior, he caught nine of 16 targets and saw 68.2% of his receiving yards come on two plays.

His aDOT is up 25% this year from last, and that’s dented his efficiency in such a way that he sits outside of my top-20 this week, even in a plus matchup. I still think there is upside in this profile, but with so much importance being placed on those splash plays, it’s impossible not to worry about the floor that comes into focus should those bombs not connect.

DJ Moore | CHI (vs GB)

DJ Moore caught first and third quarter touchdowns in Chicago’s steamrolling of Cleveland last week, and while I think he can hover around the flex radar with Rome Odunze banged up, I’m proceeding with caution.

He led the Bears in routes last week, but both emerging rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) were targeted on a higher percentage of their routes in Week 16. The 22.9 PPR points from last week, likely left on your bench, are encouraging, but I’d resist the urge to chase them blindly.

I don’t mind this matchup; I’m just not sold that this offense is in the business of featuring him consistently. Last week was his second multi-TD effort of the season, and do you remember what happened in the two games following the previous one?

• 8 targets
• 13 yards
• 3.3 PPR points

DK Metcalf | PIT (at DET)

DK Metcalf had a highlight touchdown on Monday night, his sixth score of the season (first since Week 8). This team is in the thick of the playoff race, and it’s clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts his WR1, a fact that keeps him ranked as a low-end WR2 for me in a game where I fully expect the Steelers to be playing catch-up.

DK Metcalf with PURE STRENGTH — bulldozes into the end zone for the TD 😳🔥 Watch the highlight and sound off: is this the play of the day? ▶️ [link] #Steelers #DKMetcalf #NFL pic.twitter.com/7zEAd2Hy92

— Statpro (@statpro_ai) December 17, 2025

The TD in primetime was nice, but do you remember many other Metcalf targets?

If not, it’s because there weren’t many. His three targets represented an 11.1% share, his lowest of the season, and an obviously concerning happening given that his route tree in Pittsburgh doesn’t offer nearly the upside of his Seattle days.

Half of Metcalf’s games this season have seen his score 8-14.5 PPR points, and I think that’s where he lands this weekend.

Drake London | ATL (at ARI)

In Weeks 1-11, Drake London was a PPR WR3 (19.7 PPG, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua) and, over the last three times we saw him (Weeks 9-11), he was the top performer at the position.

Following the strong 2024 showing (100-1,271-9), Atlanta’s ace was viewed as a Tier 2 receiver that fantasy managers could trust at a high level, loyalty that he very much rewarded you for in 2025 before suffering this knee injury.

London hasn’t played since, and with the Falcons assured of missing the playoffs for an eighth consecutive season, it’s difficult to count on him returning. You’re in the semifinal,s and you’ve navigated the past month around this injury: I’d plan on doing more of the same for as long as your run lasts.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (at CAR)

Early November was the last time that Emeka Egbuka scored 10.5+ PPR points. Whether you want to blame a rookie wall, subpar play from Baker Mayfield, or a combination of both, it’s hard to feel great about him this weekend after Mike Evans impressed in his return to the lineup on Thursday night.

His type of target last week didn’t change dramatically with Evans back (14.7 aDOT, 15.2 in the three weeks prior), but his target share (21.9%) was its lowest since Week 6, and that’s where the risk comes into play.

Egbuka has a sub-50% catch rate this season and has earned just one end zone target over the past month. The talent we saw over five weeks is still there, which is why he’s in the mix for starter consideration. That said, I view his floor as the lowest of the three primary receivers on this offense, and that’s giving me pause in starting him this week.

For me, starting Egbuka requires context. Are you favored to win? Do you have a roster full of risk/reward players? The more safety and certainty you have elsewhere, the more likely I am to bet on raw ability and plug in the rookie. If you’re already swallowing downside at your WR2 and RB2 slots, then I’d lean in the direction of a more consistent receiver.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at NO)

News broke earlier in November that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out of multiple games at the time of the initial diagnosis.

Given the direction of this season, it’s reasonable to think that we’ve seen the last of New York’s WR1 this season. That hasn’t been reported, and until it is, you’re holding. The required four-game absence means that Wilson can return for Week 15’s game in Jacksonville, a matchup I’d be fine with targeting, and a New Orleans matchup the following week would also be intriguing.

But I’m not counting on it.

This is a floundering team that isn’t exactly motivated to compete. This passing game is broken, but with Wilson under contract through the 2030 season, he’s their primary path to digging out. The Jets need to figure out the quarterback position, but they have a building block in their top receiver and will want to enter 2026 with him at full strength instead of putting him in harm’s way this winter.

George Pickens | DAL (vs LAC)

How can you not think it?

The word “disinterested” is starting to be thrown around regarding George Pickens and his effort level amid Dallas’s consecutive losses, the thinning of their playoff hopes, and his numbers tanking.

• Weeks 1-12: 36.9% over expectations
• Weeks 13-15: 33.1% below expectations

Every receiver that leaves the insulation of Pittsburgh seems to go through this scrutiny at some point, but the fact that those whispers are getting louder at the end of Year 1 is concerning.

That’s a 2026 discussion.

For the next few weeks, I’m not going to act on it. He’s still on the field plenty, and Brian Schottenheimer took the blame post-Week 15 for the lack of opportunities.

He’s averaging 15 yards per catch, and I do think Dallas needs to pass at a high level to compete this week: Pickens remains a WR2 for me this week, but I am certainly watching how this looks with an eye on the future.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at MIA)

Ja’Marr Chase has 100 catches in three straight seasons and needs two more TD receptions to hit seven, a threshold he’s hit every season since Cincy made him the fifth overall pick out of LSU.

He’s special, but it’s natural to worry about the status of any player on a team that has nothing to play for.

Don’t.

This will be the third consecutive season the Bengals finish in the bottom half of the AFC North, and Chase has cleared 18 PPR points in each of his past four games played during the fantasy postseason. We are going to assume that Joe Burrow is throwing passes for this team in Week 1 of next season, and if that’s the case, Chase deserves to again be in the 1.01 conversation.

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (at DEN)

The Jags knew what they were getting in Jakobi Meyers, and he’s come through on all of it. He’s finished five straight weeks with 4-6 catches and a top 30 PPR ranking at the position, catching 71.1% of his targets in the process and adding a dimension that has allowed this offense to level up.

Season Pace With Jaguars

• 108 targets

• 1,006 yards

• 8.5 touchdowns

Meyers had a pair of 10+ yard receptions on the first drive and has posted a first-half target share over 28% in three straight. He’s a clear part of the plan for a team peaking at the right time: what more could you realistically ask for?

Use this as a good reminder that not every player on your team needs to have top 10 potential. Meyers helps you build a foundation, and I’d argue that players like this are more critical to your success over the course of an entire season than the Jameson Williams types that can explode in single spots.

Jalen Coker | CAR (vs TB)

This Panthers offense is going to be interesting, and it might be sooner than later.

Tetairoa McMillan was drafted as the alpha and has done nothing this season to change that perception, but a healthy Jalen Coker looks like an asset.

He beat single coverage against the Saints last week, and Bryce Young made good on the 32-yard score, Coker’s second in as many weeks. While he won the route, he wasn’t wide open, so it spoke volumes that Young was willing to give his WR2 a shot to make a play.

In this pass funnel matchup, this is a DFS option for me. There’s no reason to dig this deep in standard-sized redraft leagues, but I would keep tabs on the Holy Cross product entering next season: could this offense take a Chicago Bears-like jump in 2026?

Jameson Williams | DET (vs PIT)

There is one player in the NFL who has 7+ catches in each of his past three games.

It’s not Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, Trey McBride, or Amon-Ra St. Brown.

And if you’re thinking that trivia in this article format doesn’t work, you’re 100% right, but I wanted to get those names in this section and give you ammo for when you’re watching football this week.

You’re welcome.

Yes, it’s Jameson Williams. He’s averaging 30 yards per TD reception, and even more impressive than that is the fact that only one of his seven touchdowns has come on an end zone target.

Williams’ speed is no secret to anyone, and Detroit is aware of that. They are moving him around and exploring horizontal schemes as much as vertical, keeping the defense off balance and allowing their explosive 24-year-old to thrive.

I don’t see it stopping.

There are going to be some air balls; that’s the price of admission. This is a talented offense that can choose to go elsewhere, but playing this profile weekly is going to pay off in a big way more often than it cripples you.

The Steelers are on a short week and allow 6.2% more yards per completion on the road than at home. If you play Williams in every home game for the next five years, I think you’ll be thrilled with the results.

Jauan Jennings | SF (at IND)

The Jauan Jennings profile isn’t perfect, but it’s good enough.

He has six touchdowns over his past six games, and with Ricky Pearsall (knee) back on the injury bus, we are looking at a solid role in a consistent offense.

There’s naturally some risk involved. Jennings is a good player who shares an offense with two great options (George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey). Brock Purdy is as efficient as they come, and betting on a Kyle Shanahan offense has proven profitable over the course of time.

Jennings has cleared a 24% target share just three times this season. That would worry me in most systems, but this isn’t “most systems”.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs LAR)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has cleared 18 PPR points in 12 of 14 games this season and is proving more than capable of winning at every level.

Against the Colts last week, JSN posted his ninth 100-yard effort of the season and did so on his second-lowest aDOT of the season (7.7 yards) courtesy of his second-highest slot participation rate.

That’s more detail than you realistically care about, but it speaks to Seattle’s desire to find ways to feed their WR1 at a high level as opposed to working to get other pass catchers involved.

In the Week 11 matchup against the Rams, Smith-Njigba turned 12 targets into nine catches for 105 yards. Status quo. If you’re searching for the JSN nugget of the week: he’s caught nine of 10 targets from the slot over the past month, a role he didn’t have against the Rams in the first meeting (zero targets on six routes).

Jayden Higgins | HOU (vs LV)

Jayden Higgins has positioned himself as the WR2 in this growing Houston offense, but I still view him as the third option (Dalton Schultz), and that’s a tough sell with CJ Stroud having cleared 260 passing yards just twice this season.

I like how he projects moving forward, and he’s certainly carved out a role ahead of Jaylin Noel. He has my interest in a major way for 2026, but at this point, playing him isn’t an option.

We have seen him earn just 11 targets over the past three weeks and has just two instances with a 20% target share. Nico Collins is going to soak up the scoring equity, and Schultz has evolved into a consistent chain mover.

What’s left?

Higgins is a safe bet for 4-6 targets, but I’m not overly confident there is a ton of quality behind those looks.

Jayden Reed | GB (at CHI)

Jayden Reed has caught nine of 10 targets with a 6.7 aDOT in his two games back from injury, and while the production hasn’t leapt off the page, the foundation for a strong finishing kick has been laid.

Against the Broncos last week, he saw his snap share rise from 48.1% to 65.1%, allowing him to clear 30 routes run for just the fifth time in his career. I think there’s a stable floor that most don’t associate with Reed that you can count on, and in this matchup, some sneaky levels of scoring equity (CHI: 22nd in red zone defense and 25th in opponent short pass TD%).

Last week, the Packers were doomed in the eyes of the media following the Micah Parsons injury. If you’re asking me to write the Week 16 headlines before kickoff, I’d say that something along the lines of “Packers Send a Message vs Bears, Reed All About It” could fill your feed.

I’ve got him ranked ahead of DK Metcalf, Rashee Rice, and Justin Jefferson this week.

It’s been a weird year.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs CIN)

I’m essentially not wanting to tie the fate of my fantasy season to the Dolphins (See Tagovailoa and Waller), but I’m OK backing Jaylen Waddle to bounce back from a slow stretch that has seen him be held to under 8.5 PPR points in three of his past four games.

Why can’t he be Week 15 Zay Flowers?

Baltimore’s clear-cut WR1 posted a 3-68-1 stat line in this matchup and left two big plays on the table with the two targets he saw not be completed (one a dropped pass and the other a misfire on what should have been a touchdown).

Waddle has six games this season with at least six targets AND a touchdown: if he checks either box, he’s likely to finish as a top-24 receiver, and if he checks both, a top-12 result could be within the cards. I’d rather play him than the aforementioned Flowers, but I’d also go as high up in the ranks to lean his way over the likes of George Pickens and Mike Evans.

Yeah, I said it.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs BUF)

Sometimes, fantasy analysis can be simple.

How would you feel if you looked at your matchup and saw that your opponent was starting Jerry Jeudy?

I had this instance last week, and I was ecstatic. In fact, I checked the matchup not only when I woke up on Sunday, but also at 1:01 p.m. EST to confirm that Cleveland’s receiver was locked into my opponent’s lineup.

Shouldn’t that tell you something?

Jeudy has been held under 40 receiving yards in four of his past five games and has a 44.9% catch rate for the season. The Browns have taken him out of the slot almost entirely (34.6% of his routes last season, down to 13.1% this year) and are thus only big swings to him (43.8% of his targets have come 15+ yards down the field over his past four games).

He’s Alec Pierce. That role was profitable early this season for Pierce, with Daniel Jones playing over his head, but it’s come back to earth in a major way since then. Jeudy has more potential now than he did a month ago because Shedeur Sanders is more aggressive downfield than Dillon Gabriel. Still, the floor is devastatingly low and very much in play against a Bills defense that ranks top 10 against the deep pass in terms of YPA, TD%, and INT%.

You beat Buffalo on the ground, or you get your head beaten in.

Those are the two outcomes I see for Cleveland as a whole this weekend, and neither is appealing to Jeudy.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at NYG)

Jordan Addison got behind the defense on Sunday night for a 58-yard reception.

I’m not minimizing that, Justin Jefferson managers might sacrifice a finger for such a play, but that look accounted for half of Addison’s targets in the win (fifth on the team in targets).

I don’t think J.J. McCarthy is going to continue to struggle to get on the same page as one of the three best receivers on the planet for much longer, so the fact that Addison has been able to step up during those struggles is a real concern.

We knew entering this season that regression was coming for the former Trojan, whose touchdown-to-target rate was simply too good to be true through two seasons. The TD variance I was prepared for, but he remains inconsistent in terms of winning targets, and that’s where I draw the line.

Some weeks look better than others (10 targets against the Seahawks less than a month ago), but playing him means you need to hit a parlay: a high effort game from him AND an accurate spot from McCarthy.

Is that the bet you want to have to cash to advance through this week?

Josh Downs | IND (vs SF)

For the season, I’ve been underwhelmed by Josh Downs. I think he has the potential to be a very impactful piece on a very good offense, thanks to his ability to shake free in the slot and make the most of plays with the ball in his hands.

We haven’t really seen that come to light this season, but he did catch Philip Rivers’ lone touchdown pass of Week 15 and was in the slot for 85.4% of his routes. If the Colts are going to find a way to stay in the mix, Downs likely plays a big part in it, but I can’t bring myself to trust him, even against a 49ers defense that can be had.

The yardage upside isn’t going to be there. Even with this passing game overachieving for 2+ months, Downs doesn’t have a 60-yard game on his 2025 resume. That means you need either volume (Indy protected Rivers on Sunday, and I’d be shocked if we see him approach 30 pass attempts at any point) or TD equity (11 career end zone looks across his 44 games, three this season).

His role in the shallow pass game should allow him to be efficient, but even an efficient day on 4-6 targets without much scoring upside isn’t going to crack the top 30 at the position most weeks.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at NYG)

Pain.

There was a TD wiped off the board last week, another one mishandled, and before you know it, I’m spiraling down a research rabbit hole to try to quantify just what we are seeing.

Three receivers this season have had three straight games where they caught multiple passes while running 20+ routes in a game, where they finished with fewer than 25 receiving yards.

• Justin Jefferson
• Cooper Kupp
• Xavier Hutchinson

No big deal. That’s a third-year receiver that saw not one, but two replacements drafted for him in April, a 32-year-old who was released this summer, and his current employer traded for a WR2 at the deadline, and maybe the best receiver of a generation.

I don’t get it, and I fail to believe it.

He owns a 30.2% target share from J.J. McCarthy, so it’s not a volume thing. He hasn’t popped up on the injury report, so it’s not a health thing. I wish I could explain it. From a spreadsheet perspective, it just looks like a crazy swing in variance at the worst possible time.

Percentage Of Expected Points Achieved, JJ McCarty Passes

1. Josh Oliver: 203.8%
2. Jalen Nailor: 132.6%
3. TJ Hockenson: 99.7%
4. Jordan Addison: 76.1%
5. Justin Jefferson: 70.8%

The only thing I can come up with is that McCarthy spent more time with the lesser talented players while injured last season (and this season for that matter), but this would be a comical run out if it wasn’t leaving fantasy teams in the dust.

Call it stubborn, call it stupid. Call it whatever you want, but I have Jefferson ranked as a starter in all formats, even if the recent box scores suggest that he’s not worthy of starting in those crazy 32-team leagues.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (at BAL)

Kayson Boutte made a beautiful diving catch over the weekend, good for 30 yards as Drake Maye trusted him to beat single coverage in a third-and-seven spot.

That play came on the first drive and had me thinking that we could be in line for one of those explosion spots in a huge game for the Patriots.

It didn’t happen.

In fact, Boutte being targeted didn’t happen again after that chunk gain.

Week 15 was the sixth time this season that he was on the field for over two-thirds of New England’s snaps and failed to earn more than three targets.

By nature of his skill set, the looks he does get aren’t high-percentage (16.7 aDOT; no matter how good Maye is, those passes are going to hit the ground more often than not), making the lack of volume all the more damning.

If you’re in go-for-broke mode, Boutte’s role aligns with your desires, but outside of that very specific situation, you’re not taking a second look at this profile.

Keenan Allen | LAC (at DAL)

We saw Keenan Allen catch five of seven targets at Arrowhead last weekend, and if you are going to tell me that the Bolts are going to make a deep run this winter, their veteran receiver is going to factor in.

But he shouldn’t be factoring into your playoff run.

Allen has scored just once after opening 2025 with a TD in three straight, and there’s simply no upside in the looks he does get (one reception gaining more than 12 yards over his past five games).

Adonai Mitchell and Luther Burden are two names in the vicinity of where I have Allen ranked this week, and I wouldn’t hesitate to plug in their upside over the limited, chain-moving profile of Los Angeles’ wily vet.

Keon Coleman | BUF (at CLE)

We know what Keon Coleman is at this point. He’s a gunner who hunts the big plays.

Being attached to a Josh Allen-led offense isn’t a bad place for that skill set to be, but with them deploying a five-man WR rotation where the bottom four all ran 13-19 routes on Sunday against the Patriots in a critical spot, there’s no real bullish case to make.

His name came up once on the broadcast last week, and it was for a block to set the edge.

Coleman caught eight passes in the crazy win over the Ravens to open the season, but he has a four catch ceiling since, and has been held under that mark in six straight games with a benching wedged in there.

I was wrong to like him this preseason, and I’m not sure he’s a fit for this team as they look to build out their roster moving forward.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (at CLE)

I’ve felt let down by Khalil Shakir this season, and while his 5-65-0 line against the Pats last week wasn’t an airball, it was his third straight game with a sub-20% target share, and that’s not what I signed up for.

The highlight reel 37-yard catch, a pass in which he was interfered with, makes me think that there is still a fantasy asset in this profile, but where have the target earnings gone?

No receiver on this team has stepped up, and yet, Shakir’s targets per route run rate is down from 26.3% last year to 22.7%. His PPR value per target is identical to where it stood a season ago, and his YAC skills haven’t declined, but he’s just not getting the ball as consistently as we had hoped.

The Browns allow the ninth-fewest yards per pass thrown short of the sticks, a skill set that very much impacts how I view Shakir this weekend.

He’s comfortably outside of my top 30 this week, falling behind DJ Moore and Troy Franklin in the process.

There might be a buy-the-dip opportunity next season with him, but for the remainder of 2025, I’m out.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (at DAL)

Remember two months ago when we were curious if this offense could stabilize four pass catchers with Oronde Gadsden spiking?

It seemed like a big ask, but Jim Harbaugh was embracing a high-pass-rate, expectation-based offense, and we were at least open to the idea.

In Week 16, with a favorable matchup on tap, how confident are you that even two crack the starting range at their respective positions?

Ladd McConkey has been held under five receptions in six straight and has just one end zone target over that stretch. The foot injury has been reported in injury reports, but he doesn’t appear physically limited as much as he is by the evolving nature of this offense.

Justin Herbert has thrown under 30 passes in four straight and six of his past seven games. Similar to the situation in Green Bay, if no one pass catcher is going to establish himself as the alpha target earner, we are left hoping for a seemingly random spike week from whichever piece we plug in.

McConkey remains my highest-ranked receiver, and I didn’t hesitate in that regard, but the upside is capped in such a way that I’d play Wan’Dale Robinson and Chris Godwin over him in Week 16.

Luther Burden III | CHI (vs GB)

There is an ankle injury to track here, but with a “day-to-day” tag and the biggest game of the season on deck, I’m hoping that the rookie finds his way onto Soldier Field this weekend.

6+ Targets, 65+ Receiving Yards In Weeks 14 And 15

• CeeDee Lamb
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Puka Nacua
• Jameson Williams
• Brian Thomas Jr.
• Luther Burden

That’s some impressive company to keep. The reporting around Rome Odunze doesn’t come with a ton of optimism, and that opens the door for Burden to lead highlight shows.

He was on the right side of a 40-yard missile from Caleb Williams last week and was responsible for five of the team’s first 12 receptions against the Browns. We could see a similar rate of involvement on Saturday against a Packers defense that is allowing the third-highest completion percentage on balls thrown past the sticks this season and figures to provide even less resistance sans Micah Parsons.

If you told me that you wanted to start Burden over Rashee Rice, Justin Jefferson, or DeVonta Smith, I’m not going to stand in your way.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs ATL)

Marvin Harrison Jr. missed Weeks 11-12, but we saw him return productively against the Bucs in Week 13 (69 yards on seven targets). He was much more efficient than the red-hot Michael Wilson in that game, getting the high-quality looks that their WR2 had thrived with when he was absent.

But he suffered a heel injury, and it’s been grabbing at him enough for him to miss each of the past two weeks. He didn’t practice at all last week, and the status was the same as it was the week prior: show no real signs of optimism during the work week and get ruled out on Friday.

The Cards obviously have nothing left to play for, and while their QB situation is TBD moving forward, Harrison still has two years left on his rookie deal and is firmly a part of this team, trying to build a reputable offense.

We know that the WR1 in this Jacoby Brissett-led offense is a strong bet, but until we get glowing health reports, I’m operating under the assumption that Harrison is on my fantasy bench. This isn’t a bad matchup, but Atlanta does have an extended week in terms of prep time after playing on Thursday night.

I’m not putting my fantasy season in the hands of a player viewed as a building block for a team that lacks short-term motivation.

Matthew Golden | GB (at CHI)

In case it wasn’t clear, we are onto 2026 with Matthew Golden.

He can stick around the very back of your roster if we get negative news on Christian Watson (chest). Still, even then, we are talking more about blocking your opponent from upside than a player you’re actually considering clicking into your lineup.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

If not for the Watson injury against the Broncos, Watson would have finished fifth among Packers receivers in routes run, as he continues to be an afterthought. He did have a 16-yard grab down the middle in the first quarter last week, a nicely executed timing play, but we are talking about isolated plays instead of a behavior pattern.

It’s been an uneven rookie season for the burner, and this wrist injury isn’t helping. There’s a world in which he’s an interesting pick in the second half of drafts this August, but you can stop wishcasting a big game in 2025 at this point.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs SF)

I thought we were onto something, I really did.

I thought the consistency of Michael Pittman had a chance to connect well with Philip Rivers’ limited skill set, and that train of thought had some life early after he was on the other end of two first-quarter completions (17 yards).

The problem there was two-fold: Rivers only had three completions for the quarter, and there really was no hope of any vertical upside.

This offense is going to be as low-octane, by design, as any in the league as we come home, and Pittman, even when Daniel Jones was on a heater, doesn’t carry a ton of scoring equity (five end zone targets this season).

If you’re asking if it’s Pittman or Josh Downs as the WR1 in this offense, I think you’re asking the wrong question.

Michael Wilson | ARI (vs ATL)

Marvin Harrison Jr. has missed consecutive games with this heel injury, and it’s hard to imagine the Cards bringing him back in a meaningful way at this point (four DNP’s in this five-game stretch).

Fire up Michael Wilson and feel good about it.

He’s cleared 16 PPR points in all four of the games in handling the WR1 role in Arizon,a and the Falcons have allowed a receiver to surpass 24 PPR points in three of their past four.

The matchup box is checked, the role box is checked, and the connection with QB box is checked, so it’s time to address the elephant in the room.

Garbage time.

Since Week 10, 63.5% of Wilson’s points have come with the Cards down by double digits and 85.7% with them trailing in some capacity. It’s less likely that we see a game script like that this weekend, and that does create a path to failure, but this game is being labeled as a coin flip by oddsmakers, and as long as that’s the case, I expect this team to put the ball in the hands of Brissett.

Wilson is a low-end WR1 for me.

Mike Evans | TB (at CAR)

I’d argue that Mike Evans was the most actionable takeaway from Thursday night.

Yes, more actionable than Kyle Pitts single-handedly swinging your playoff quarterfinal matchup.

Pitts was a fantasy starter in good form entering his earth-shattering game, and he’s a fantasy starter coming out of it. Of course, you’re playing him with more confidence this week than last, but the actionable shift is minimal.

Evans took the field for the first time in nearly two months, looked like he was at risk on every snap physically, and yet he finished with a 6-132-0 stat line against the Falcons.

It didn’t happen by accident. Evans saw a 44.4% target share in the first half (his highest in the first 30 minutes in a regular season game since Week 6 of 2019). It was clear that the Bucs identified CB Cobee Bryant as a pressure point they wanted to attack as often as humanly possible, even if it meant weighing down their veteran receiver with vulnerable targets coming off a broken collarbone.

Week 15 WR Snaps/Routes/Targets

• Chris Godwin: 58 / 38 / 5
• Evans: 31 / 28 / 12
• Emeka Egbuka: 39 / 25 / 7
• Jalen McMillan: 30 / 20 / 2
• Tez Johnson: 14 / 9 / 1

He wasn’t out there on run plays where he was taking unnecessary shots. The Bucs were thoughtful in his snaps and wanted to use their bullets in a meaningful way: that’s all we can really ask for.

The loss last week was a tough result, but if Tampa Bay can sweep Carolina over the next three weeks, they’ll have a home playoff game. That makes this a playoff game, and based on what we saw last week, Evans will be a prominent part of the game plan.

He’s earned at least eight targets in all of his healthy games this season, and it’s hard to project anything different to take place this week (8+ catches, 95+ yards, and 1+ touchdowns in both Panther games last season). I expect Carolina to allocate more resources to covering the future Hall of Famer than the Falcons did last week, with his health unknown, and that introduces some downside, but he’s a WR2 across all formats.

Nico Collins | HOU (vs LV)

The second play of Week 15’s win over the Cardinals was a 57-yard touchdown for Nico Collins, the type of splash play that I thought we’d see more of this season.

Better late than never!

He finished with an underwhelming 15.4% target share, his second-lowest of the season, but game script certainly played into CJ Stroud not feeling compelled to force the issue.

That said, when Jacoby Brissett was making his move, Stroud went to Collins for a short TD to remove all doubt. There were multiple instances over the weekend where Houston was intentional in their shot-taking at Collins, and that caught my eye.

Not just in leveraging his athleticism, but doing so in a creative way. Go routes on the perimeter are one thing, and end zone fades can work, but working him 20-30 yards down the middle of the field is what gives Collins the potential to put this offense on his back for what they hope is an extended playoff run.

The Raiders are a low-pressure defense as long as you can handle Maxx Crosby, and that’s resulted in opponents picking them apart for the second-highest completion percentage against (69.2%).

I think six receivers have a clean path to lead the position in scoring this week, and Collins is in that tier.

Parker Washington | JAX (at DEN)

Parker Washington is playing through a hamstring injury and offers a dimension to this Jags offense that seems to have turned a corner. With a 25+ yard reception in three straight, in addition to some slot skills, he’s a situational player that Trevor Lawrence is calling on in important spots.

The issue, however, is that he doesn’t have a consistent role. Washington has earned just 15 targets over his past four games and is third, at best, in terms of target hierarchy in this offense that operates with balance in mind.

Brenton Strange can earn looks, and after the huge week from the RBs in the passing game last weekend against the Jets, there’s not enough meat on this bone. If Jakobi Meyers or Brian Thomas were to get banged up this week, Washington would emerge as a sneaky PPR flex against the Colts next week, but outside of that, he’s not worthy of our attention.

Pat Bryant | DEN (vs JAX)

The Broncos came out of their bye with a new receiver rotation. Sean Payton elected to give Pat Bryant an extended run at the cost of Troy Franklin, putting the rookie out there for 69.6% of their offensive snaps, his first game clearing 60%.

In that overtime win over the Commanders, Bryant out-earned Franklin 7-3 in terms of targets, and it seemed that the performance was enough to empower Payton to stick with this decision. He was on the field for 61.8% of Denver’s first-half snaps against the Raiders in Week 14, but a hamstring injury limited his work after that and resulted in a Week 15 DNP.

I like Bryant as a player, and the future is bright if the Payton optimism is here to stay. Still, for this week, we lack target concentration, and that makes it nearly impossible to trust any pass catcher on this roster outside of Courtland Sutton.

Dynasty managers need to be encouraged by the direction of Bryant’s profile: this is a team set to be competitive for years to come, and the 2025 third-rounder figures to be an impactful piece as soon as 2026.

Puka Nacua | LAR (at SEA)

Puka Nacua is a warrior, and that’s all there is to it.

He’s relatable. Not in talent, I have no idea what it’s like to be among the best in the world at something, but he loves the sport and just wants to play. He seems to love the competition, the contact, and everything in between. He’s about as easy a player to root for as there is in the league, and if you haven’t gone out of your way to watch a Rams game, I hope you enjoy this island game.

Nacua had a rare bad drop in the first quarter last week, but it changed nothing. This offense funnels everything they want to do through him, and the early mistake may have encouraged Matthew Stafford to feature his top threat even more to keep him engaged.

He caught nine of his other 10 targets for 181 yards, his second straight game with over 160 yards and third such performance of the season. Los Angeles even handed him the ball twice (zero carries in the three games prior), and I suspect we see more of that as the value of these games spikes.

For Week 16, even in a brutal matchup, Nacua sits atop my wide receiver rankings. Davante Adams is likely to miss this game, and that only ramps up the volume further. In the Week 11 meeting against these stingy Seahawks, he had seven catches for 75 yards while all of his teammates combined had eight for 55.

He was also handed the ball twice in that contest. Sean McVay, Stafford, and you all want the same thing: it’s beautiful when things align like that, and that makes Nacua as inevitable as any receiver in the game today.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (at DAL)

Quentin Johnston was a late-week add to the injury report, and a groin injury ultimately resulted in his second missed game of the season (fourth of his career).

This injury may have saved you from yourself last week, and while I don’t mind this matchup, I’d proceed with caution.

Johnston hasn’t seen a deep target in each of his past two games and has a sub-15% target share in seven of his past eight contests. We saw extreme upside from him in September, and his longest scoring drought this season is two games. But with the volume trending in the wrong direction and his health far from a safe bet, I’m very much looking for any reasonable option to flex over Los Angeles’s up-and-down wideout.

Rashee Rice | KC (at TEN)

The Rashee Rice situation is complex.

He’s great. That much we know. We also know that he has 7+ catches in five of his eight games this season. The move from Patrick Mahomes to Gardner Minshew is obviously impactful, but I can’t imagine this offensive scheme changing in a major way, and it’s built around the skill set of their WR1.

That said, despite the consistent volume, Rice has been held under 55 receiving yards in two straight and half of his games this season. Even with Mahomes, the struggles of this offensive line made churning out high-end fantasy stat lines a bit spotty.

Now, onto Minshew.

Last season alone (with the Raiders), there were six times that Minshew targeted a single player 10 times and eight instances in which a player on his offense had more than five receptions.

It won’t look the same, but I do think the volume is as safe as it can be for an offense replacing a future Hall of Fame QB. Rice is my WR20 this week, ranking just behind Courtland Sutton and ahead of Jakobi Meyers.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (vs LAR)

If you’re considering Rashid Shaheed on Thursday night in this tough matchup, you know what you’re signing up for.

There isn’t a floor to chase, and the skill set comes with a ton of risk when attached to the slow stylings of this offense.

That said, I think you could do worse if you’re managing a plucky underdog and taking on the best team in your league.

Shaheed has seen his target share rise in three straight, and his 106 air yards last week were his most since joining the ‘Hawks in Week 10. His statistically strong Week 15 also saw him earn his first end zone target in a month, and with the Rams likely to bring jailbreak pressure schemes, the odds of this big play threat getting loose for a single impact catch are as high, in my opinion, as they’ve been since the trade.

The low volume keeps him ranked outside of my top 30, but that’s a ranking based on a median projection. If you’re in a spot where you can swallow risk for reward, I think this is a sharp way to do it.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (at IND)

You can’t help but feel for this kid.

I thought Ricky Pearsall looked great last week. It was against the Titans, I get it, but six catches for 96 yards on just 24 routes is impressive. There was also a DPI flag he created in the end zone, putting this offense in a position to score, even if it didn’t impact his box score.

I have my questions (one red-zone touch this season and a 9.5% target rate in those spots), but the raw skills are a nice fit for this creative offense led by an efficient signal caller.

In all, I like this profile when he’s active.

That last part, however, is the problem and seems to be an issue again, as Kyle Shanahan pivoted from “I’d expect him to be alright” to “there is concern” within a 24-hour window when talking to the media about Pearsall’s knee/ankle ailments.

At this point, I can’t take a risk like this. I’m not counting on him being active, but even if he is, the inability to get through 60 minutes without issue isn’t something I want to deal with at this point in the fantasy playoffs.

Rome Odunze | CHI (vs GB)

Rome Odunze missed last week with a foot injury, but there was an optimistic tone in reports of his status for Week 15 throughout the week.

That is, until five minutes before the game against the Bears, when he was ruled out after being ruled in following a setback during pregame warmups.

Just a brutal outcome for fantasy managers who had the second-year receiver penciled into their lineups. He scored in four straight games to open 2025, but he’s scored in just one game since and has reached 55 receiving yards just once since October.

It’s hard to imagine feeling good about playing him in the cold this weekend, even if he’s deemed healthy. If this were a Jaxon Smith-Njigba type of situation where the target share was elite every week, I’d say to trust the role and take your chances, but this Bears team runs two-deep around Odunze at every skill position (running back, wide receiver, and tight end).

With just 13 catches over his past five games, the ceiling you’re chasing isn’t reflective of what we’ve seen recently.

Romeo Doubs | GB (at CHI)

Romeo Doubs has disappeared during the Christian Watson breakout, so when the vertical threat left Sunday with a chest injury, I allowed myself to get momentarily excited for my Doubs shares.

It doesn’t sound like the Watson injury is going to linger (though you never know with him), and that means Doubs is back to being a WR4 that you hold on your bench and only play if you’re desperate.

I do expect the Packers to challenge 30 points on Saturday, making him a decent dart through if you’re in a bind, but not a WR that I’m looking to play with confidence.

The 26-yard grab in the first quarter was a reminder of what is possible if Doubs is featured. He got behind his defense, and Jordan Love had enough confidence in him to fire an out-platform throw his way.

He’s an above-average receiver in a below-average situation, and in this case, the situation wins out more often than not.

Stefon Diggs | NE (at BAL)

At this point, you’re just hoping that New England gets caught up in a shootout and that Stefon Diggs falls into plus usage, right?

That would be my take, but we just saw them play in a game with 66 points scored, and their WR1 finished with a higher target share (18.2%) than his air yards total (17.3%).

He wasn’t a part of the plan out of the gates (one of Drake Maye’s 11 first-half targets went in his direction), and with a snap share sitting in the 46-51% rate for three straight, he’s getting lost in the fold more often than not (eight catches across those three games).

I still think he’s the most likely Patriot pass catcher to see work, but there are a handful vying for looks, and this run game has upside now that they are giving TreVeyon Henderson opportunities.

Despite being the WR1, in theory, of this offense, he’s ranking alongside WR2s for me this week, players like Deebo Samuel, DJ Moore, and Rashid Shaheed. That’s not high praise and means he’s outside of my top 30 at the position.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at MIA)

Tee Higgins has missed two of the past three games due to different concussions, and given the nature of this season for the Bengals, it’s hard to see them putting him at any risk for the remainder of this season.

The drama around his contract was loud this offseason, before he got the four-year, $115 million deal he was looking for in March. He turns 27 next month, has scored 19 times in 24 games over the past two seasons, and is averaging 14.0 yards per catch over the course of his career.

Higgins is pretty clearly a top-20 receiver when healthy, but he’s currently stuck on a dozen games played for a third consecutive season. You’re keeping him on IR right now because it costs you nothing, and we saw his potential to impact the box score in a major way in between the two head injuries (Week 14 at Buffalo: 11 targets, 92 yards, and two touchdowns).

But I’d approach this week as you did last: it’d be nice to have Higgins active, but it’s not the expectation.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs PHI)

Marcus Mariota hit Terry McLaurin for what turned into a 51-yard touchdown last week. The WR1 gained some separation downfield, and the ball was put on him at the 20-yard line. While the chunk gain was going to happen, some sloppy tackling played it into a backbreaking score.

I don’t really care how we get there, as long as we get there.

Outside of the splash play, McLaurin had just two catches for 18 yards in what was an awfully low pass volume game for Washington (10 completions). He’s now scored in three of his past four games and earned at least a 25% target share in all three games since returning from a month-long hiatus.

The role is there, and so is the talent. I expect the volume to be in a better spot this week than last, with the Commanders currently a 6.5-point home underdog, and that’s enough to land him just inside of my top-20 this week.

The commitment to Mariota for the rest of the season is probably a good thing for those holding McLaurin, as it’s one fewer moving piece to navigate. There were no signs on Sunday or in the reporting that this team is packing it in on 2025, so I think you’re safe to deploy their WR1 as you usually would.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (vs TB)

Carolina prefers to run the ball, and that puts their receivers in a tough spot to be consistent, but Tetairoa McMillan was overcoming that for a while thanks to high-end volume.

As it turns out, defenses are watching film and are now keying on the focal point of this low-volume passing attack, leaving managers with the standout rookie in a bit of a tough spot.

After clearing a 31% target share in three straight, his piece of the pie has dropped to 22.5% over the past month, a rate that would be viable in an above-average offense that consistently challenges teams through the air, but that’s not the life the Panthers have chosen in 2025.

That’s resulted in him failing to reach 45 yards in back-to-back-to-back games. He bailed you out with a touchdown in each of the first two, but no such luck over the weekend, and there’s a chance that his 4.5 PPR points are the reason you’re in the consolation portion of your playoff bracket.

Better times are ahead.

At least for this week.

In this huge game, I expect McMillan to be schemed up with regularity. Of course, the Bucs figure to key on him as well, but can they be effective in doing so?

In every game since September, Tampa Bay has allowed the opposing top-producing receiver to clear his season-long PPG average, and, with all due respect to Jalen Coker, that role is McMillan’s.

I don’t think we see him record his third multi-TD game of the season, but something like what we saw four weeks ago (seven targets and a touchdown) is very much in play, which is why I have him labeled as a safe WR2 in all formats.

Troy Franklin | DEN (vs JAX)

I think Troy Franklin is a good player.

I think Pat Bryant is a good player.

I think this is going to be an annoying situation when both are healthy, and it’s trending in that direction for Week 16 after Sean Payton indicated that Bryant (hamstring) could have suited up last week if it were a playoff game.

The WR2 role looked good on Franklin in October, and it did again on Sunday (6-85-1 on six targets against the Packers, the score coming on a nice play from 23 yards out). Even with him producing, he still only earned an 18.8% target share over the weekend, a nice jump from the single-digit rate he had over the two weeks before the emerging rookie, but a limited ceiling all the same.

The skill is there as he’s been targeted on over 24% of his routes in seven of eight games, but he profiles as a part-time player against a solid defense with plenty of target competition.

I’ve got him sitting just outside of my top 35 at the position for this week. I’m not looking to go this direction (provided that Bryant is active), but if you’re backed into a corner, there is single-play upside in this profile, given that 10 of his 94 targets this season have come with his feet in the end zone.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs MIN)

That’s now six straight games with a target share north of 28% and this is the version of Wan’Dale Robinson we signed up for in the preseason.

To open 2025, he was hitting on some big plays (15 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown through Week 3), but recently, he’s been the target earner and PPR savant that we wanted him to be when we made that click back in August.

He had the nice touchdown catch in the corner of the end zone last week against the Commanders, and that was great, but I’m banking on the fact that he has 21 catches (32 targets) over his past three games.

The G-Men have dialed back, or outright eliminated in many cases, the designed runs for Jaxson Dart, and those opportunities are funneling right into his slot machine. I think you’re clear to flex Robinson without much concern in this spot against a Vikings defense that has the fourth-lowest opponent average depth of throw.

Xavier Worthy | KC (at TEN)

Xavier Worthy doesn’t have a top 25 finish at the position since September, so it shouldn’t surprise you in the slightest that he’s off my radar this weekend with Gardner Minshew taking over under center.

The volume simply hasn’t been there at any point, and while the chunk plays were finally starting to come (25+ yard reception in four straight), the hopes of those chunk plays being stable vanished when Patrick Mahomes crumpled to the ground.

There’s a larger conversation this offseason about how his skill set fits into this offense (for the record, I think it can work, but maybe the Rashee Rice saga this summer affected the plans a bit). I’m tentatively bullish for 2026, but that doesn’t mean I’d suggest rolling him out there in anything but deeper formats for the remainder of this season.

And yes, “tentatively bullish” will be the name of any team I draft him on next season.

Zay Flowers | BAL (vs NE)

Zay Flowers can make some outstanding plays, but he showed us on Sunday that he can make the mundane look difficult, and that’s been part of the battle we’ve faced.

He’s the unquestioned lead in this passing game, and that projects to be the case for the remainder of this season and the foreseeable future, but he’s finished in that WR20-32 bucket in six of his past eight games, and that’s just not enough of a ceiling given his role.

Against the Bengals, he had a pass put in the perfect spot, and instead of snatching it, he let it eat him up, resulting in an interception off a deflection. That hurt, but then he reminded us of what is possible with a two-catch 54-yard drive that saw him score from 28 yards out to end the first half, his first trip to the end zone since Week 1.

But wait, there’s more.

Lamar Jackson was a little off on an end zone target to an open Flowers, but he catches it more often than not. It didn’t happen, and that left us with three receptions on five targets for the afternoon, but targets being impactful plays that should have been completed.

Ugh.

Flowers hasn’t caught more than four passes in four of his past six games, and while he’s likely to set a new career high in both receptions and yards this year, the growth has been minimal at best across his three seasons.

Will the light click in 2026?

I hope so. I expect this offense to function in a similar style, and that means the opportunity will be there. Even with some of the risk in terms of consistency, you’re playing him this week if for no other reason than it’s a motivated offense with the potential to get hot, even in a tougher matchup.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (vs LAR)

I assume you’re reading this section because you want to recreate the magic from the Week 11 meeting: 10 catches on 11 targets for 70 yards.

That performance looked good in the moment, as AJ Barner was able to succeed next to, not at the expense of, Smith-Njigba (28.6% target share with north of 100 yards), but it’s looked like fool’s gold ever since.

In the four games prior, he has totaled 12 catches and 107 yards. I know we had the weird 61-yard catch back in Week 6 against the Jags, but Barner doesn’t have a reception gaining more than 15 yards in a game since, and that means you’re relying on volume in an offense that ranks 26th in plays per game this season.

Every data point is worthy of our attention, not just the one that supports your streaming case that happened to come in this matchup. I don’t think the Rams have a hole that Barner is uniquely qualified to exploit, and in that regard, I expect his recent production (2-4 catches for 30 yards) to be more predictive than the outlier from mid-November.

Brenton Strange | JAX (at DEN)

There was a run in the middle of the season where Brenton Strange was a legitimate fantasy option and worthy of our trust, but that’s in the rearview at this point.

He turned 27 routes into just one catch against the Jets on Sunday and, despite being on the field plenty, that was his third straight game with under 50 receiving yards.

I think there’s a good player in this profile, and with his 25th birthday approaching, there is plenty of time for him to carve out a niche in this league, but he simply hasn’t been as involved in this offense as we need him to be since Jakobi Meyers got up to speed.

You could argue that Luke Musgrave just looked OK against this tough Broncos defense and that they force you to go to your secondary options more than usual: I’d listen to that case in a DFS setting where you can absorb more risk.

In a season-long semifinal, I’d rather not tempt fate and stream against potentially the best unit in the league.

Brock Bowers | LV (at HOU)

I mean, c’mon.

The incompetence in Las Vegas becomes slightly more mind-numbing every week, and we need some serious changes heading into next season if Brock Bowers is going to project as a Tier 1 option at the position.

He caught six passes against the Eagles during Sunday’s blowout loss, and that’s great, but the Raiders are so aware that they have no hope with the forward pass that Bowers was basically a gadget option that they had to force-feed.

He gained 28 yards on those six grabs courtesy of a 2.0-yard aDOT. I guess the coaching staff deserves an ounce of credit for playing to their QBs strength (or his least impactful weakness), but if the roster is constructed in such a way that you’re scheming up your gifted TE looks within six feet of the line of scrimmage and hoping beyond hope that he can do something special with them, well, then we have a problem.

Things aren’t perfect in Arizona, but that offense is catered around creative ways to get Trey McBride chances to impact winning. This offense is just trying not to embarrass itself, and that makes upside hard to come by.

It’s also not working. This is a mess on all levels: Bowers (and Jeanty, for that matter) is better than his stats suggest and will be an interesting discussion point when we start preparing for 2026.

You’re playing Bowers because of the position, but if he played receiver, we’d be having the same tough conversations we are having surrounding Justin Jefferson.

Cade Otton | TB (at CAR)

Cade Otton (knee) was unable to play on Thursday night, but with Tampa Bay finally getting healthy at the WR position, his role is effectively gone, even when healthy.

In the middle of the season, Otton had a stretch where he earned 5+ targets in seven straight, and that put him on the streaming radar. His volume made him a reasonable streaming option, even if the upside was limited at best, but those times are done with, and he doesn’t deserve to be on your radar for the remainder of this season.

Otton is probably more than a single injury flare-up away from mattering (10 career touchdowns on 285 targets and just 9.7 yards per catch): there’s no reason to dig this deep at this critical juncture of the season.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (vs KC)

Chig Okonkwo matched a season high in targets on Sunday with six, and it only took him 17 routes to do so.

This is a player with plus-athleticism for the position, and I think we can see that shine through next season should he sign in an offense with an experienced, or at least aggressive, QB.

As things stand now in Tennessee, I don’t think you can go this direction. They are willing to have Cam Ward learn on the fly, and he’s yet to prove himself capable of giving Okonkwo the quality of look we need for him to be of any interest as we try to piece together the position.

Colby Parkinson | LAR (at SEA)

Is it possible that Rob Gronkowski walked so Colby Parkinson could run?

The Stanford product has scored in five of his past six games, a run that nearly had an asterisk on it after his first TD was highly questionable against the Lions, but he squashed those concerns with a second score later.

2016-25, Highest TD% By A TE (min.35 targets)

1. 2020 Robert Tonyan: 18.6%
2. 2024 Mark Andrews: 15.9%
3. 2025 Parkinson: 15.8%
4. 2017 OJ Howard: 15.4%
5. 2016 Hunter Henry: 14.9%

It should go without saying that regression is to be expected, but regression can be a long-term thing, and we are very much in the short-term portion of the season.

“I think the biggest beneficiary of no Davante Adams might be not another WR, but Colby Parkinson”@evansilva and @adamlevitan on expectations for LAR’s offense if Adams can’t go: pic.twitter.com/ua9NO8rYwe

— Establish The Run (@EstablishTheRun) December 17, 2025

Parkinson has earned an end zone look in four straight games (three more than he had for the season prior), and all signs point to Davante Adams (hamstring) being highly limited if not out altogether this week.

With an MVP candidate under center and the leader in end zone targets compromised at best, the situation around this unsustainable production is as advantageous as it’s been.

I was encouraged by the 9.0-yard aDOT on Sunday, a sign that Sean McVay is interested in exploring exactly what his emerging tight end can do vertically. This position has gotten harder, not easier, with time to rank (injuries to Daniel Jones and Patrick Mahomes, times shares in Buffalo and Baltimore, etc.), and that has paved the way for Parkinson to enter my top 10 for the first time this season.

Cole Kmet | CHI (vs GB)

Cole Kmet caught two of three targets for 42 yards in the Week 14 meeting with the Packers in Lambeau, and that’s actually on the high end of what I’d expect this weekend as the Bears continue to transition toward Colston Loveland as the TE they put in a fantasy-friendly spot.

Since Week 11, the rookie has 20 more routes and nine more targets than Kmet despite 26 fewer offensive snaps, a sign that while we are getting snap splits, the responsibilities aren’t exactly the same.

Kmet scored against the Cowboys in Week 3 and has found paydirt just once since: there’s little volume to chase here and even less scoring equity.

Colston Loveland | CHI (vs GB)

The presence of Kmet (and three capable receivers, not to mention versatility in the backfield) leaves Colston Loveland outside of my top 10 at the position this week. Still, he’s in that conversation, and given the trajectory, I could see going in this direction as an upside play over the Dalton Schultzs of the world, whose value is in stability.

Loveland has earned at least five targets in four straight games, and we saw him score on these Packers just two weeks ago. In that loss, Kmet had a pair of catches that gained 15+ yards, plays that easily could go the rookie’s way this time around (17+ yard reception in six of his past eight games).

If you were starting Travis Kelce or riding the Jake Ferguson express early in the season, I could very much see (and have it ranked this way) you pivoting off of them in favor of Chicago’s impressive first-year playmaker.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (at WAS)

The shovel pass isn’t the most visually appealing play in professional sports, but when your TE hauls in two of them for short touchdowns, you’re not going to complain.

Those two plays on Sunday brought Dallas Goedert’s TD total to nine this season, one more than he had in the previous three years combined. Is he a drastically different player than he was prior?

I’d argue no. The targets, both in quantity and quality, are about the same; he’s just been on the right side of variance. Heck, he should have had a hat trick against the Raiders, as his one missed target was a drop on the goal line that he catches in his sleep.

Given the trajectory of his position, his TD equity OR his 17 targets over the past two weeks would be enough to earn him a spot at the TE1 table in my Week 16 rankings. The fact that he has both trends working in his favor has him knocking on the top-5 door.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at CLE)

I’m not exactly who asked for Dawson Knox to start producing only after Dalton Kincaid returned from injury, but I’d like a word.

The tandem split 30 routes, and four red zone touches right down the middle, and when the roles are that similar, you’re asking for problems.

Sure enough, the Bills got a huge win in Foxboro because Knox scored on two of his four targets, and Kincaid did not.

In all, Buffalo got seven catches and 80 yards from the tight end position, but if those targets aren’t condensed to a single player, how can we trust it with our season on the line?

Kincaid didn’t have a catch in the first half, and while he did have a reception that ended at the two-yard line, the sporadic nature of targets in this offense has him sitting just outside of my top 10 for Week 16.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs LV)

Dalton Schultz is the poster boy for the TE profile I like to target.

You don’t have to pay up for his services, and while the ceiling is capped, I’ll take a cheap floor at this position at every opportunity and feel great about it.

Schultz’s first game this season with 5+ receptions came in Week 3, and Trey McBride is the only other player at the position with nine games of 5+ catches since. He managed to score last week, a four-yard touchdown in the third quarter that was the result of him uncovering in the back of the end zone as C.J. Stroud climbed the pocket. But we know he’s more of a volume-based start than one who carries scoring equity (his two end zone targets over the weekend actually doubled his season total).

Assuming that the team brings him back, I’m going to like him more than you in 2026 as a consistent source of 8-10 PPR points. I’ll leave you to look for the 2024 Jonnu Smith season from somewhere and burn weeks in the process: give me the guy that won’t set me behind in matchups, and I’m good to go.

I think we get more of the same from him on Sunday. The Raiders don’t do anything wel,l and we saw the Eagles pull their starters for the final 15 minutes on Sunday, but if your primary concern is that Schultz’s offense is going to be too good, then you’re in fine shape.

Darren Waller | MIA (vs CIN)

I understand that you’re staring at the big number from Darren Waller last week on your waiver wire and seeing the Cincinnati matchup this week.

I’d steer clear.

This Miami offense isn’t built to support pass catchers; it really is that simple. On Monday night, he saw 93% of his points come in the fourth quarter with the outcome no longer in doubt against the Steelers.

Waller wasn’t used meaningfully in the two weeks prior, and yes, while this is a great matchup, I’m not exactly comfortable with Tua Tagovailoa dictating whether I advance in my fantasy playoffs.

Waller sits outside of my top 10 tight ends for the week, and I’d ask you to take a second look at the waiver wire before settling on him (he may be the best available, but I wouldn’t blindly assume it).

David Njoku | CLE (vs BUF)

David Njoku scored his fourth touchdown of the season in Week 14 against the Titans, but in doing so, he aggravated a knee injury that’s been lingering for a while, and it resulted in him not playing last weekend.

The 29-year-old will be a UFA this summer, and given both the lack of anything for the Browns to play for and the development of Harold Fannin, it’s not hard to imagine a world in which that TD was Njoku’s final one as a member of this franchise.

That’ll all play out during the offseason. His short-term status, in theory, is TBD, but for fantasy, we know better than to roster him at this point. Fannin is a lineup staple moving forward and has a very good chance to be considered a top 10 player at the position when you begin the ranking process for 2026.

Dawson Knox | BUF (at CLE)

Waiver wires across the world saw Dawson Knox score six passes in Week 14 and score twice in Week 15 after he fell flat in the three games prior when an actual role presented itself by way of missed time for Dalton Kincaid.

That’s fantasy.

That’s, more specifically, the tight end position.

Both touchdowns came in the second half, the first one being the more troubling one for those of us trying to rank this situation. Kincaid is the superior talent and holds more upside. Still, this coaching staff felt better with Knox as the designed target on a red-zone play-action pass, where Josh Allen’s mobility was set to put the defense in a near-impossible situation.

Why Knox was on the field for that play, I have no idea, but if this staff views their TEs as interchangeable, we have to as well. Neither ranks as a top 10 play for me in this tougher matchup. While I’m choosing to prioritize talent over a recent production bump that is difficult to explain, I’d rather not play a TE from this offense with my fantasy season on the line.

Evan Engram | DEN (vs JAX)

We heard all offseason about Evan Engram potentially filling the ‘Joker” role in this Sean Payton offense. Not that he’d be Jimmy Graham, but that he’d at least be weaponized in a way that gave him enough weekly upside for us to be intrigued by.

Nope.

On Sunday, in a huge win over the Packers, where the team needed target winners with Pat Bryant sidelined, Adam Trautman led the Broncos’ tight ends in routes run.
Wonderful.

You can cross Engram off the list of viable streaming option,s and that’s saying something with the standards awfully low to be worth a look at that position (29.2% snap share in Week 15).

George Kittle | SF (at IND)

You could easily argue that Trey McBride is in his own tier at the top of the tight end position and that George Kittle, as the next man in line, is also in his own tier.

I suppose that hinges on what you think of this Kyle Pitts sprint to the finish, but either way, Kittle has reached double-digit PPR points in five straight, a stretch that has been highlighted by him catching 12 of 14 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown over the past two games.

Ricky Pearsall looked good this past week prior to getting hurt again, and Jauan Jennings can win down the field, so I was encouraged by Kyle Shanahan carving out a niche role for his difference-making TE. In the win over the Titans, Kittle posted his lowest aDOT of the season (2.9 yards), a bet on Brock Purdy, one of the most efficient QBs in the game, staying on time with this offense.

That’s a bet I’m comfortable making, and if there is one tight end that is going to give you a chance at treading water should you be facing a McBride team, it’s Kittle, and it’s not a conversation.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (vs BUF)

The Browns have young pieces all over their offense, and if we are marrying position with talent, you could argue (and I would) that Harold Fannin projects as the most interesting among them for years to come.

The rookie was featured in the opening script (five of Shedeur Sanders’ first seven targets), and he’s now finished consecutive games with 40 routes run and an end zone target.

What learning curve?

In those two contests, he’s racked up 189 air yards and seems to be the player that Sanders most trusts as he looks to stretch the field. Against the Bears on Sunday, he had three more catches than any of his teammates had targets: that level of domination probably doesn’t stick, but if the Bills get frisky with their linebackers in an effort to correct their leaky run defenses, it’s easy to see Fannin hitting for multiple splash plays.

He’s my TE6 for this week, and if you told me I was too low on him, I wouldn’t fight you. He’s been phenomena,l and as this offense grows together, it’s easy to see a world in which this unit is on the right side of league average.

Hunter Henry | NE (at BAL)

The only reason that Hunter Henry is interesting to us is because of the offense for which he plays.

He disappeared against the Bills over the weekend (one catch for 18 yards), and we can’t say that it was some weird outcome. In fact, it was the fourth time he failed to catch more than one pass in a game this season and the sixth time he didn’t clear two receptions.

Yes, it’s true that he’s always on the field (86.3% snap share in Week 15), and yes, it’s true that this offense can score in a hurry. All of that said, I’d argue that both running backs and at least two receivers are more likely to get fed in any one week than Henry, and that’s before you account for what Drake Maye can do with his legs.

If you want to continue to bet on this offense and hope, you can. I’d rather go this direction than frustrating TEs in lesser offenses (i.e., T.J. Hockenson). But the environment alone isn’t enough to get him into my top 15 at the position this week.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs NE)

I generally don’t like team vs. position data, but the Bengals have been the go-to spot for tight ends since the beginning of last season. I didn’t expect that to mean that both Baltimore tight ends have big days, but one of them? Or at least two passable performances?

Not even close.

Isaiah Likely was shut out and has now failed to clear 25 receiving yards in five of his past six. He split a low-volume role with Mark Andrews, and that’s just not enough work for either to project well.

On the seasons, Likely has as many TDs as Mark Andrews has contract extensions this season, a bad ratio for a 25-year-old trying to break out. There’s no reason to keep holding out and hoping: we can try again in 2026, but my patience is wearing thin.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs LAC)

Jake Ferguson has an end zone target in four of his past five games.

That’s me trying to make you feel better. Make myself feel better.

It was a tease early in the season, and we are now left holding the bag. He’s like Hunter Henry in that you’re essentially betting on the offense more than the player, but it hurts even more after he carried your roster for an extended stretch.

A Tale of Two Seasons (17-Game Pace Numbers)

• Weeks 1-7: 292.4 PPR points, 123.9 receptions, 140.9 targets
• Weeks 8-15: 130.4 PPR points, 63.1 receptions, 87.4 targets

Ferguson has just two catches beyond the sticks over his past three games, settling into a low-upside role that also carries a low floor given the target demands of the top two receivers in Big D.

We are talking about a tight end that was a lineup staple in October, who is now a liability with your season on the line. Ferguson checks in as TE15 for me this week.

Juwan Johnson | NO (vs NYJ)

If you play in a tight end premium league, I could see being at least moderately intrigued with Juwan Johnson.

He’s caught all eight of his targets in December, and Tyler Shough has shown some positive signs of development. This isn’t a high-octane offense, but it’s also one that is working with reserve RBs and a depleted pass-catching depth chart behind Chris Olave.

In standard leagues, no thanks. Johnson has been held under 55 receiving yards in four straight, six of seven, and 11 of his past 13 games. He hasn’t had an end zone target since September, and even in a good matchup this weekend, I’m not sold that the Saints are a threat to score more than two touchdowns.

The efficiency of a young signal caller can be effective in a very specific format. Still, in large, I’d rather go down swinging with a low-used player on an offense with more juice (i.e., Mike Gesicki or Brenton Strange if we are talking about the names on waiver wires in most leagues).

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (at ARI)

Well, that was something.

I don’t want to say that Kyle Pitts took the intrigue out of your playoff matchup last Thursday night, but there’s a good chance he did just that.

• 11 catches on 12 targets
• 166 yards
• 3 touchdowns
• 45.6 PPR points

Have yourself a day, good sir!

He did the first name proud and clearly wasn’t hampered in the least by the knee injury that was noted on the injury report during the week. Pitts hauled in a 13-yard pass on the first drive, a 26-yarder on the second drive, capped that second drive with an eight-yard TD that rarely came to pass (Atlanta elected to take a field goal off the board because of a penalty on Tampa Bay), and we were off to the races.

By halftime, he had already set a career high in fantasy points (29.1), and on the final drive, his 14-yard catch on third-and-28 will be forgotten, but without it, I can’t imagine that the Falcons go on to win this game (21-yard completion to David Sills V on fourth-and-14).

In totality, he became the first TE this season with 80+ receiving yards in three straight games, posted the fourth-best fantasy playoff game, regardless of position, since we went to the 18-game schedule in 2021, and registered the most points by a TE in a fantasy playoff game this millennium.

So yeah, there’s a chance your matchup was over before the weekend.

He’s earned at least a 25% target share in all four games since this season became Cousins’ to finish, and that volume is what you should fall in love with as we near the finish line. The touchdowns obviously made Thursday night special, but we know those can be fleeting for the best in the game, never mind a profile like this (11 touchdowns in 74 career games before last week).

Pitts isn’t likely to post another historic performance this weekend and carry your team, but he does offer one of the five best roles at the position right now, and that puts him in a position to help your team hugely for a fourth straight game.

I can’t wait to see where his ADP falls in August after nearly four straight underwhelming seasons and this sprint to the finish with a QB that likely won’t be on the roster.

Luke Musgrave | GB (at CHI)

Luke Musgrave is coming off a game against the Broncos in which he set season highs in receptions (four) and targets (six). Jordan Love put a little too much on a longer pass, but his tight end was able to help him out with a diving grab that resulted in a gain of 26 yards.

He’s not Tucker Kraft, but in an offense that lacks a true WR1, he’s valuable to the Packers.

For fantasy managers, I’m less sold.

The lack of an elite target earner sounds good, but it also means that there are a handful of receivers vying for targets as opposed to a situation in Los Angeles where Colby Parkinson has a very defined role.

He was able to thrive over the weekend in part because Denver can dictate where the opposition throws the ball by where the plant Patrick Surtain. Few defenses have that potential, which has me expecting us to be back in the 2-4 target range for Musgrave this weekend.

At this point, I’d rather play him over either Baltimore tight end, but that’s about it when we are talking about the TEs that are rostered with regularity: this isn’t a player I’m going out of my way to stream.

Mark Andrews | BAL (vs NE)

Mark Andrews caught the first pass of the game for the Ravens, and while I still think Isaiah Likely is the right direction for this team, I hoped the early involvement would give us some clarity down the stretch of the season.

Instead, it seemed to be nothing more than a random occurrence.

Andrews caught one more pass for the rest of the game against a Bengals defense that has largely ignored guarding the position in any capacity for the past 15 months and split 20 routes for the game with Likely.

That’s now five straight games without a score for the touchdown-reliant veteran, and, fun fact, he has just one Sunday TD this season.

The NFL flexed this game to Sunday night, and while I think it’ll be a fun one, I can say with 100% certainty that I will not have any exposure (annual or DFS showdown) to the tight end position for either team.

Mason Taylor | NYJ (at NO)

After not practicing all week, Mason Taylor (neck) missed the first game of his rookie season.

Generally speaking, I like what I’ve seen from him this year, but let’s not tempt fate. Streaming the TE position is hard enough as it is, and counting on an offense with as low a ceiling as this Jets team has, you’re taking on more risk than is needed.

Mike Gesicki | CIN (at MIA)

I think we can safely be done here.

Mike Gesicki was the top tight end in Cincinnati without much of a question in terms of routes run (33, more than double that of any other player at the position for the Bengals). Still, after recording the first catch of the game, he was a complete afterthought against the Ravens.

Bengals TE’s in Week 15

• Gesicki: 33 routes, 2 targets
• Tanner Hudson: 16 routes, 5 targets
• Drew Sample: 15 routes, 2 targets
• Noah Fant: 6 routes, 0 targets

And Tee Higgins (concussion) didn’t play last week. The Bengals are now officially eliminated from playoff contention, so it’s a little hard to project them moving forward. But with Gesicki inked for two more seasons, it’s hard to see them extending his role in a meaningful way as they play out the string of 2025.

Oronde Gadsden | LAC (at DAL)

We saw Oronde Gadsden resurface on Sunday with four grabs for 61 yards against the Chiefs, his highest yardage total output in over a month.

I’m intrigued by the big play potential he provides at the position (27+ yard reception in three of four and six of eight games), especially with a franchise QB already in the door. The big play over the weekend came on a fourth down in the third quarter, an impactful play, but it is worth noting that it was his first reception of the day.

The role is spotty, but in a weatherproof spot where this offense could be pushed, I think you can do worse. The Quentin Johnston absence in Week 15 opened the door for Gadsden, and if he were to sit again, my optimism rises.

He’s not a must-play, but with carnage at the position and the Trey McBride manager likely still alive in your league, rolling the dice on a player that can score 7-9 PPR points on a single play is plenty reasonable.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at NYG)

We are getting there, but my goodness, is it a slow burn.

T.J. Hockenson has cleared nine PPR points in three straight games, a bar that feels low, but this is the hardest position to fill in our game, and it’s as much about taking a non-zero as it is getting a truly impressive number.

He didn’t appear hampered by the shin injury that cost him practice time during the week. Because his name doesn’t rhyme with Lustin Lefferson, JJ McCarthy can complete passes to him in an efficient manner (16 catches on 18 targets over his past four games).

The volume is low, and this offense is still spotty, but the G-Men own the fourth-worst scoring defense in the league (28.8 PPG), and that opens up the door for Hock to at least be serviceable for a fourth game in a row.

Theo Johnson | NYG (vs MIN)

This New York offense is easy to get excited about for 2026.

Malik Nabers is a star, Cam Skattebo certainly seemed to have staying power, and Jaxson Dart, if he can stay out of the blue medical tent, has the makings of a difference maker at the position.

Theo Johnson is putting himself into that “future stars of New York” conversation as he continues to make plays at a position that’s scarce across the NFL. For the season, this rare athlete is averaging 11.7 yards per catch, and it would appear that the G-Men are aware of the mismatch they have (9.0-yard aDOT).

He was on the field for 86.6% of their offensive snaps last week, and while he’s caught more than three passes in a game just once since Week 5, there’s enough per-reception upside here to stream if you’re chasing a ceiling performance.

It was only two weeks ago that his eight targets netted just 5.9 PPR points, so don’t mistake my optimism for safety. There’s risk involved here, I’m just more willing to swallow it at this position.

This profile looks good against an aggressive defense like Minnesota: one smart design, and the Giants could get him in space with blockers out in front.

Travis Kelce | KC (at TEN)

Travis Kelce made a nice play on the first drive last week, a 17-yard gain on third-and-11 that helped breathe life into a drive that appeared destined to fail, and he finished with a very respectable 7-70-0 stat line.

But the math is drastically different today than it was a week ago.

Patrick Mahomes’ season is over, and so is Kansas City’s as far as meaningful football games are concerned.

Is this it for the future Hall of Famer?

We are well over a month since the last time he had a 25-yard catch, and that means that a bet on him is a bet against the volume and/or efficiency of this passing game falling off a cliff with Gardner Minshew playing out the string.

Color me pessimistic.

Only five times in his career has Minshew supported a TE to score more than 13 PPR points in a game, and four of those instances came a season ago during Brock Bowers’ historic campaign.

I’m going to assume we get Kelce playing his regular role until told otherwise, and even with that, he’s sitting outside of my top 12 at the position (Colby Parkinson and Theo Johnson among the streaming options I have ranked higher for Week 16).

Trey McBride | ARI (vs ATL)

Trey McBride has more PPR points this season than Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta combined.

If you removed his top three games from this season, his overall point total would rank behind only Travis Kelce at the position.

There’s simply no stopping the man who now holds the TE record for consecutive games with 5+ receptions (16).

In the second quarter last week, against maybe the best defense in the sport, Arizona ran a play-action design with the intent to get him a score, but Houston covered it well.

And by “covered well,” I mean they put all the kids from the recess on the bully to stop him.

It worked for that play, but not for the next pass, a free release inside the red zone that resulted in another score. He’s the second player in a decade to have 105 catches and 10 TD receptions through 15 weeks (also: 2021 Cooper Kupp) and holds my vote for the fantasy MVP.

The upside, along with the consistency at the tough position in all of fantasy, cannot be overrated: this is a historic season that is likely to see him outscore the next best TE by over 100 PPR points.

Tyler Warren | IND (vs SF)

There is no shortage of moving pieces within this Tyler Warren profile.

You could argue that there is a rookie wall component to consider alongside natural regression and the inherent offensive risk that comes with the shift under center.

Realistically, was his performance last week that much different from what was expected?

Efficiency was the issue (50% catch rate), but his aDOT and target share were within the range of acceptable outcomes based on where he stood with Daniel Jones. Those rates are nice, but we are in the production business, and that part of the equation hasn’t been there for the former Nittany Lion with just 101 receiving yards during Indy’s four-game losing streak.

He’s a versatile weapon, but with him not having reached 50 air yards since Week 6, there’s a lot of risk involved with chasing the talent of Warren.

I’ve certainly cooled on Warren over the past month, but as a near-touchdown underdog, at home in a spot that doesn’t come with weather risk, that’s enough to keep him positioned as a top 10 play for me.

Zach Ertz | WAS (vs PHI)

Zach Ertz tore his ACL in Week 14, and I would hate to see his career end in such fashion. Only time will tell on that front: in the scope of the Commanders for the remainder of the 2025 season, there’s not a tight end that you need to worry about in Ertz’s spot.

Ben Sinnott fans, calm down. I saw your dynasty prospect record a 36-yard catch over the weekend, but he was on the field for under 60% of the snaps and ran just 10 routes. If there were an organizational push to get him live reps as this season winds down, we would have seen much more of an effort on that front on Sunday.