If you’re new here, welcome. We are happy to have you. My name is Kyle Soppe. I live for research projects, enjoy long walks on the beach, and have a Nico Collins problem.
I encourage you to check out all of our content heading into your draft (and throughout the season for that matter!), as you’ll get plenty of well-thought-out content, but you’re going to keep coming across a similar notion whenever my name is attached to a receiver piece you’re reading.
I’m drafting Collins, and I don’t care who knows it. Honestly, I don’t care what the price is to make it happen.
Should You Draft Nico Collins in Fantasy?
Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving triple crown last season. He spent most of his weeks finishing as a top-10 performer at the position, and his combination of elite floor/ceiling made him the most popular player on playoff rosters in ESPN leagues.
It’s not the record-threatening Saquon Barkley, not the historic season of Brock Bowers that was had at a major ADP discount this time last year, and not the mobile quarterbacks that consistently gave you a decided advantage.
Collins could be that this year. He fits a similar physical profile and gets the benefit of developing alongside a quarterback whose best football is ahead of him, the same general layout that Chase took full advantage of last season.
Nico Collins pic.twitter.com/Oo0ugSCJ1G
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 30, 2025
Collins is coming off the board in the early second round, and I think that’s a fine expectation, but it does put fantasy managers in a weird spot.
If you land a late pick, great. You’re good to go, and you stand to get a true difference maker with your first pick while also getting access to another top-15 overall player.
If you land an early pick, you have to make a real decision: do you “reach” on him or simply let him go, knowing that he almost assuredly won’t be available when your pick comes back up in a snake draft setting.
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High pedigree QB in Year 3 with Star WR
- 2000 Marvin Harrison with Peyton Manning: 20.5 points per game (six TDs in his final four games)
- 2010 Roddy White with Matt Ryan: 19.8 PPG (TD in three straight games to end the season)
- 2014 TY Hilton with Andrew Luck: 17.2 PPG (Four TDs in his final three fully healthy games)
- 2019 Cooper Kupp with Jared Goff: 16.9 PPG (TD in five straight to end the season)
- 2019 Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers: 17.7 PPG (final three weeks: 27 catches for 312 yards and two TDs)
- 2020 Tyreek Hill with Patrick Mahomes: 21.9 PPG (Four multi-TD games after October ended)
- 2022 Stefon Diggs with Josh Allen: 19.8 PPG (seven games with 90+ yards and a TD catch, two coming after Thanksgiving)
- 2022 CeeDee Lab in Dak Prescott starts: 18.3 PPG (7+ catches and 100+ yards in the final three games of the fantasy season)
- 2023 JaMarr Chase in Joe Burrow starts: 19.0 PPG (six TDs in their final six together)
- 2023 Amon-Ra St. Brown with Goff: 20.7 PPG (TD in four straight to end the season)
- 2024 Hill in Tua Tagovailoa starts: 14.9 PPG (TD in three of his final four games)
From a macro standpoint, the stage is set. He’s a 6’4” receiver in his age-26 season who leads the position (minimum 175 targets) in PPR points above expectation over the past two seasons (+28.8%) in an offense looking to develop young receivers and run their ground game through 29-year-old backs.
Assuming health, I don’t think it’s out of the realm for one of the more efficient big-play receivers to rank inside the five most targeted players, a combination that gives him the potential to lead the position in scoring when all is said and done.
For the record, Bijan Robinson is my top overall player and my selection when I’m sitting at the top of drafts due to how I approach building a roster. I prefer to grab a running back or two early before neglecting the position in the middle rounds, making Robinson more valuable for me.
After he’s gone, I think you can start considering Collins. If you’re uncomfortable doing this in a redraft setting, that’s fine. Play in an auction league. Or try your hand at Best Ball.
Yes, the Best Ball avenue still requires you to take a similar risk due to the snake draft setting, but by jumping ADP on Collins, you open yourself up to a unique build and thus unlock some win equity that you may not otherwise have.
I’m getting as much exposure to Collins as I can. I’m happy to drive the hype train, and you are more than welcome aboard. We need a slogan, so if you’re the creative type, feel free to recommend one to me!
Dan Fornek’s Nico Collins Fantasy Projection
Nico Collins was one of the few parts of the Texans’ offense that didn’t fail in 2025 (except for injury). He played in 12 games, catching 68 of 99 targets for 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns. Collins had his second straight season with over 17.0 PPR points per game and a second top 10 wide receiver finish. He produced despite working through a hamstring strain that cost him five games.
Collins didn’t have the best production stats, but he was able to be a top wide receiver due to excellent efficiency. He was ninth in target rate (28.8%) but 36th in targets (99). He finished 2024 third in yards per route run (2.92), ninth in yards per target (10.2), and sixth in fantasy points per route run (0.61).
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The Texans brought on a new offensive coordinator this season, but their offensive situation on the field isn’t better than in 2024. The offensive line got worse after letting veterans Shaq Mason (released) and Laremy Tunsil (traded) go this offseason. Houston brought on Christian Kirk and two rookies (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel) to replace Stefon Diggs (free agent) and Tank Dell (injury).
Collins is set to have another fantastic season and should have the opportunity to improve upon his WR7 finish in 2025. Stroud can stay healthy behind that offensive line.
