“You can’t win a draft in the first few rounds, but you can lose it.” Generally speaking, I agree with that sentiment. That said, I also believe in getting your guy when you have the opportunity to do so.
Having an early pick (in any snake draft for any sport) means you have no shot at getting a dozen or so players — these are players not on the mainstream radar for 1.01, but need to have some brain power spent on them. If you pass on them with your first pick, there’s next to zero chance they fall to you in Round 2.
It doesn’t happen every season, but this year, there are two players I have identified as must-gets if at all possible. Neither is going to be on the board in the second half of Round 2, so yes, that means that if I’m picking in the top-5 of a 12+ team league, I’m “reaching” to get him.
One of those players is Bijan Robinson, a running back who I’m sure makes this list for most people. The other is the reason you are reading this article.
Fantasy Football 2025: Why I’m All-In On Nico Collins
I think he’s a Triple Crown threat. I think he’s this year’s version of Ja’Marr Chase. I think he’s the top scoring (PPR) FLEX player in the league this season, and a few odd looks in my draft room aren’t going to stop me from acquiring that asset the one time I will have the opportunity to do so. So yeah, technically I’m willing to take him as high as the second overall pick.
From a macro standpoint, the stage is set. Houston Texans WR Nico Collins is a 6’4” receiver in his age-26 season who leads the position (minimum 175 targets) in PPR points above expectation over the past two seasons (+28.8%).
He plays in an offense with a QB whose best football is ahead of him, an RB whose best football is behind him, and enough support in the pass-catching room to demand some attention but not subtract from his bottom line in a meaningful way.
The point scoring diet looks awfully like some past fantasy Gods.
So why are we able to get him in the first round, almost regardless of where your pick falls? Well, he’s missed multiple games in every season (five in 2024) and has yet to establish himself as a super-duper star, something most drafters want before trusting a player with the fate of their season. I get it.
Collins is my motivating factor for wanting a pick in the back half of the first round so that I don’t have to make such a statement by drafting him. I’m not missing out on what I believe to be a special upcoming season, and the earlier draft slot I draw, the more aggressive I have to get.
I already told you that I’m willing to go the Bijan Robinson route if I have the chance to grab my RB1. He’s my top overall player and comes without split backfield concerns while also being nowhere in the neighborhood of 2,000 career touches, something you can’t say about the other backs who join him in the top tier at the position.
I understand wanting to get an alpha RB1, and I wouldn’t blame you for going with a Saquon Barkley or Jahmyr Gibbs type over Collins, but Robinson profiles as a unique breed for me, and if he’s not on the board, I’m shifting my focus to receiver.
When looking at total PPR points, the last three flex players to score 400 points in a season were all receivers (2021 Cooper Kupp with 439.5, 2023 CeeDee Lamb with 403.2, and 2024 Ja’Marr Chase with 403), something that I think managers lose track of during a great running back season.
In this era, if you tell me that a receiver and running back are both putting up exception numbers, I’ll happily side with the WR, understanding the value of PPR scoring, the emphasis most offenses have in moving the ball through the air, and the general health bump I get when it comes to projecting game count and finishing strong.
Since 2021, five of the top six per-game seasons by a flex player (PPR) have been receivers (exception: 2023 Christian McCaffrey). Over that stretch, 16 WRs have reached 300 points, and 11 were in Year 5 or younger.
Like I said, this is a great Collins window, and it might be the last time for a few years where you get the opportunity to grab him regardless of where you pick.
RELATED: Houston Texans Draft Jayden Higgins: Fantasy Impact on C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Christian Kirk
Of course, convincing you to take a WR is a lot easier than convincing you to take this WR, so let’s poke some (minor) holes in the other names that are going to be of interest here.
- Ja’Marr Chase: Unsustainable production on passes thrown 10+ yards from last season. Yes, he’s built for those, but asking him to repeat is a lot. In 2022-23, he turned 109 such targets into 60 catches and 10 touchdowns (2.33 fantasy points per target).In his triple crown 2024, 56 such targets netted him 33 grabs for 10 touchdowns (3.29 fantasy points per target).
- CeeDee Lamb: 524 targets across his five seasons and yet, just one double-digit year in terms of end zone looks.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: Interesting points here, and I kind of agree. He scored nine times on 15 looks from 10 yards or closer a season ago, tough to sustain for a player that had nine such touchdowns in his career prior.
- Justin Jefferson: Third QB in three years is less than ideal. Yes, I know. “#System,” but Greg Jennings caught 12 TDs on 98 targets in his last year pre-Aaron Rodgers and, even with a HOF level future trajectory for his QB, saw him score “just” nine times on 41 more targets in Rodgers’ first full season as the man in Lambeau.
- Puka Nacua: Special player, but always a flight risk in terms of health, banking on a 37-year-old QB who considered walking away, and has just nine scores on his 266 career targets.
- Malik Nabers: QB change is viewed as a good thing, but is it? Could work in multiple signal callers this season and no receiver under Russell Wilson has ever averaged 17 PPR PPG or earned 8.3 targets per game for a season.
- Brian Thomas Jr.: Love the long-term outlook, but are we overreacting to Year 1? The Jaguars have a system change coming, added Travis Hunter at the expense of their future draft equity, and… #regression. I’m not saying he’s of this ilk, but he averaged 6.5 YAC and 11.9 aDOT last season. That’s amazing stuff. Too amazing.The only other WRs to post a season like that over the past three years are Keon Coleman, Noah Brown, and Jaylen Waddle. Do with that what you will.
We are nitpicking at the highest level, but we have to. Did the women in your life “settle” when it came to wedding dress shopping? Did the avid football fan in your life “settle” for the specs on the living room TV? I doubt it. Those are big-time decisions, and I just so happen to consider my first pick of a fantasy draft on that level.
WHAT A CATCH BY NICO COLLINS FOR THE TD 🤯
📺 : @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/8HvuJHn0g9
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 24, 2024
I mentioned the run out for Collins being pure. He’s in his third season under C.J. Stroud, and that level of connection has yielded some special seasons in the past for the upper level of QB/WR tandems.
High Pedigree QB in Year 3 with Star WR
- 2000 Marvin Harrison with Peyton Manning: 20.5 PPG (six TDs in his final four games)
- 2010 Roddy White with Matt Ryan: 19.8 PPG (TD in three straight games to end the season)
- 2014 TY Hilton with Andrew Luck: 17.2 PPG (Four TDs in his final three fully healthy games)
- 2019 Cooper Kupp with Jared Goff: 16.9 PPG (TD in five straight to end the season)
- 2019 Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers: 17.7 PPG (final three weeks: 27 catches for 312 yards and two TDs)
- 2020 Tyreek Hill with Patrick Mahomes: 21.9 PPG (Four multi-TD games after October ended)
- 2022 Stefon Diggs with Josh Allen: 19.8 PPG (seven games with 90-plus yards and a TD catch, two coming after Thanksgiving)
- 2022 CeeDee Lamb in Dak Prescott starts: 18.3 PPG (7+ catches and 100+ yards in the final three games of the fantasy season)
- 2023 JaMarr Chase in Joe Burrow starts: 19.0 PPG (six TDs in their final six together)
- 2023 Amon-Ra St. Brown with Goff: 20.7 PPG (TD in four straight to end the season)
- 2024 Hill in Tua Tagovailoa starts: 14.9 PPG (TD in three of his final four games)
The overall production of those players is elite, and it was for most of their careers, but there’s a level of understanding after spending a few seasons with the same talented quarterback under center, and I’m not sure enough is being made of that in Houston due to Stroud’s underwhelming 2024 and Collins’ injuries.
Also, notice how those seasons tended to end. If we can backload some of Collins’ production, he’s not just putting you in a position to win your league; he’s getting you to the finish line when it matters most.
Again, we have a chance to be a little early and I’m not going to be shy about taking advantage of it. The next question I get most often about a player who I’m out of line with consensus on (for better or worse) is the impact of the schedule.
First of all, I think that’s silly. We have no idea what version of this offense or the opposing defense is going to be on the field when these games occur, not to mention scheme changes, game script, weather, and a million other things that will impact specific weekly projections.
But, I’m nothing but a man of the people, so here’s the answer to that question in regards to Collins:
- Week 1 at LAR – Three straight bottom-10 Defense+ seasons
- Week 2 vs TB – 52.2 total PPG in Buc games last season (fourth-most, behind only the Lions, Bengals, and Bills)
- Week 3 at JAX – Ranked 31st in Defense+ last season
- Week 4 vs TEN – 33 end zone completions allowed over the past two years (fourth-most)
- Week 5 at BAL – Nine times did a WR score 20-plus PPR FP vs BAL, and their average height: just over 6’1”
- Week 7 at SEA – 31st last season in opponent Passer Rating in play-action spots — Collins is WR1 in play-action points per target among qualifiers over the past two seasons (42-766-6 on 53 targets, averaging 43.9% more points per target than NFL WR average)
- Week 8 vs SF – Get the 49ers in the middle of playing five games in five different cities in five weeks, they were 27th in turnover differential last season and the best way for Collins to produce is for the Texans to have the ball
- Week 9 vs DEN – Elite Defense, but also the only defense to allow a 40-piece (PPR points) to two different receivers last season (Jerry Jeudy and Tee Higgins)
- Week 10 vs JAX – Ranked 31st in Defense+ last season
- Week 11 at TEN – 33 end zone completions allowed over the past 2 years (fourth-most)
- Week 12 vs BUF – 7th best run defense by EPA and 30th against the pass
- Week 13 at IND – Fourth-most yards per deep completion last season (29.45, 11.2% more than NFL average)
- Week 14 at KC – 31st last season in opponent TD% in play-action spots — Collins is WR1 in play-action points per target among qualifiers over the past two seasons (42-766-6 on 53 targets, averaging 43.9% more points per target than NFL WR average)
- Week 15 vs ARI – Ranked 27th in Defense+ last season
- Week 16 vs LV – 32.4% red zone TD pass rate last season (3rd highest, HOU was second-worst and Collins can’t face the Texans!)
- Week 17 at LAC – No weather concerns is always nice this time of year, Collins’ slot usage on the uptick, and LAC was 22nd in TD% and 29th in YPA to the slot last season
- Week 18 vs IND – Fourth-most yards per deep completion last season (29.45, 11.2% more than NFL average)
It’s going to require good health and a positive run-out from this offense as a whole for Collins to live up to the expectations I’m heaping on him. That’s true. But that’s also true for any receiver that the drafting community is suggesting will outproduce him this season.
The Texans restricted Collins’ deal this offseason to make the needed financial space to support him and this offense. They also replaced Bobby Slowick with Nick Caley as the offensive coordinator ahead of this season, and it sounds like that’s a-ok with the star receiver.
“I don’t know much about Nick Caley, but I know from his previous years at the Rams, they had a great offense, explosive offense. Just watching Puka, Kupp go crazy.. I’m assuming it’s gunna be that same way when he comes.”
Can’t wait to see how Nick Caley uses Nico Collins. pic.twitter.com/7jaRMJCyj8
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) February 8, 2025
“Nick is a playmaker man. He knows how to get the playmakers the ball – great situation, so I can’t wait to really get going on Sunday’s and for this offense to keep clicking.”
Us either, Nico. Us either.
