Get ready for a crucial week in fantasy football as lineup decisions could make or break your playoff hopes. Some key uncertainties and recent developments have shaken up depth charts around the league, with real implications for GMs trying to gain an edge.

Every roster tweak counts at this stage, and even minor updates might have a major impact on your matchups. Dive in to see what’s changed and how it might affect your path to a championship.

A.J. Brown | PHI (at LAC)

Is this what we wanted?

The Eagles have dropped consecutive games, but at least A.J. Brown is getting fed (18 catches on 22 targets for 242 and three scores).

This feels like the house burning “everything is fine” meme. I love that he’s seen double-digit targets in three straight and that the efficiency has recovered from the brutal start to the season. The hope is that we see some more end zone looks (four this season after seeing 12 a season ago), but everything else looks like the resume you bought into this summer.

2024

93.8 air yards per game
86.5% snap share
Seven touchdowns in 13 games

2025

92.2 air yards per game
91.7% snap share
Six touchdowns in 11 games

It’s been a weird season full of drama and social media posts, but for our purposes, you’re right about where you expected to be, even if the path was a little different.

Alec Pierce | IND (at JAX)

Alec Pierce has a skill set that is easy to label as “shaky” or “inconsistent”, but if he pays off the risk with reward each week, don’t we have to make an exception?

He’s scored in two of his past three games after being held scoreless up to that point and has a 19+ yard reception in every game he’s played (20.9 yards per catch).

I will grant you that the volume can be hit-and-miss, but given the success rate on these splash plays, all that tells me is that Daniel Jones is only throwing his way when the coverage scheme gives him a real chance to win in a big way.

The downside argument that I’d most listen to is the DPI one. We saw it on Sunday when a 32-yard penalty set up a Tyler Warren touchdown, and that concern is real. Those deep shots don’t need to be completed for Indy to benefit, but that’s a risk that I’m willing primarily to take on for access to this ceiling.

I still have Michael Pittman ranked above him based on mean projections, but would I play Pierce in this spot over struggling big-play threats like Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, and Darnell Mooney?

I would, and I wouldn’t consider it close.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs IND)

The Jags blew out the Titans on Sunday in Brian Thomas’ return from the ankle injury (three missed games) and made sure he was ready to roll with the first target of the day.

I assume they liked what they saw because BTJ played a full complement of snaps, but he caught just one ball after that initial look and looked like the third most dangerous member of this passing attack.

I like Trevor Lawrence as much as anyone and even I’m not banking on him supporting three pass catchers, so things are going to have to improve in short order for me to feel good about locking Thomas into playoff rosters.

Sauce Gardner is going to miss this game and that has a trickle down impact in a variety of ways. At the base level, it increases the odds of a shootout and that’s the game environment it’ll take to get all of the Jaguar fringe options home.

I’ve got Jakobi Meyers ranked over Thomas and Brenton Strange, relative to position, more favorably as well, but I do think there are points aplenty in this one and if that proves accurate, flexing Thomas is a viable option.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs TEN)

You’re getting way too cute if you’re going to this rabbit hole.

I don’t have any Brown WR ranked as a starter this week, something that has been the case for nearly two months now. Harold Fannin is the one option attached to this passing game that has my attention at all, but that’s more of a positional scarcity thing than it is any confidence in this offense supporting anything of use.

Cedric Tillman earned just one target on Sunday against the Niners and that brings his totals to five yards and four targets in the Shedeur Sanders starts.

If you’re going to throw a dart on a skill set like this, you should be aiming for an offense that is at least middle of the road. I have a hard time seeing Tillman giving you what Dontayvion Wicks did for the Packers on Thanksgiving and that’s just one example of a low ranked receiver on a good offense that fell into a productive afternoon.

Chimere Dike | TEN (at CLE)

I think we’ve seen enough from Chimere Dike (the 103rd overall pick back in April) to think that there is something there and I’ll be interested to see how he and Cam Ward connect in their second season.

For the rest of 2025, you’re making an irresponsible risk/reward decision by keeping him with the thought that you’re ever going to feel good about playing him. Dike has two or fewer receptions in three of his past four games and has eight instances this season in which he’s failed to earn more than four targets.

The juice simply isn’t worth the squeeze.

Chris Godwin Jr. | TB (vs NO)

I don’t want to get out over my skis here, but was Chris Godwin’s Week 13 performance the most impactful three-catch showing of the season in terms of looking forward?

Week 15 vs. Falcons
Week 16 at Panthers
Week 17 at Dolphins

That may sound crazy and maybe it is. But the veteran receiver picked up 20+ yards in each of those receptions , was involved on the first drive, and dropped what should have been a touchdown.

He looked healthy, and the Bucs need a stable WR2 in the worst way. Emeka Egbuka has run into something of a rookie wall, and Cade Otton is only capable of so much. I like Godwin as a flex over the next two weeks, and while there might be a Mike Evans return to navigate soon, Tampa Bay’s postseason fate is essentially going to hang in the balance when they face the Panthers.

We want our fantasy starters playing their most important games when we are, and that certainly projects to be the case here!

Chris Olave | NO (at TB)

Do you know how talented you have to be to earn four end zone looks in a three-game span for maybe the worst team in the NFL?

Chris Olave has done that. Twice.

He only had one catch for four yards in the first half in Miami last week, but Tyler Shough found him while scrambling on the first drive of the second half for a 17-yard TD, once again making him a profitable starting piece, even in a low-scoring environment.

This Olave season is what we thought the floor for Justin Jefferson would be. There are ceiling limitations, but he has seven finishes as a WR2 or better through 13 weeks and isn’t killing you.

I see no reason to expect anything but top 20 production this week against a Bucs defense that forces you to throw.

I can’t promise it’ll be pretty, but Olave has 115 targets this season for a reason and that level of volume puts less pressure on the quality of each individual look.

Christian Kirk | HOU (at KC)

Christian Kirk wasn’t targeted on 17 routes against the Colts and this lost season is officially dead after he showed minor signs of life the week prior with five catches in the win over the Bills.

This team likes what they are getting from Jayden Higgins as a compliment next to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz has been a reliable chain mover for the majority of the season.

The idea of drafting Kirk, a veteran next to a star WR1 with a complementary skill set was logical, but at no point this season has he lived up to expectations and there’s no reason to hold onto him at the end of your roster as you build out your depth for the postseason.

Christian Watson | GB (vs CHI)

The Christian Watson profile was pretty straight forward entering this season and his stat line this season would fit into those expectations: 21 catches for 363 yards and three touchdowns.

Not so fast.

Do we have an evolution taking place?

It’s a minor thing and it may be more Jordan Love than Watson himself, but does it matter? He missed the first seven weeks of this season, but since debuting in Pittsburgh, things are on the up-and-up in a way we’ve never seen from him:

Week 8: 11.4% target share
Week 9: 11.4% target share
Week 10: 12.1% target share
Week 11: 20% target share
Week 12: 33.3% target share
Week 13: 34.5% target share

I don’t think a +30% target share is here to stay, but the upward trajectory of things is certainly encouraging. Watson was the target on five of Love’s eight throws on Thursday afternoon, another sign that he might be more than a one-trick pony.

With extra time to prepare for this advantageous matchup, I’m more comfortable in playing Watson than I ever have been.

Famous last words? Maybe, but all we can do is play the odds and the odds are currently tilting very much in his favor.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (at ATL)

I’ll give Cooper Kupp for staying on the field the way he has post Rashid Shaheed trade, but he’s not giving us enough production to remain rosterable.

The former star has been held under 24 receiving yards in three straight and has earned more than four targets in just one of his past five. This is an offense that can score in bunches, but the volume is so low and the targets so condensed that a WR2 isn’t likely to hold our interest at any point for the remainder of the 2025 season.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (at LV)

For a while, this was Troy Franklin against Courtland Sutton for targets. That situation was leaning in the direction of Franklin, but on Sunday night, we saw Evan Engram come to life (led the team in targets, catches, and yards) while Pat Bryant was next up in terms of target share.

This is Sean Payton doing Sean Payton things and that’s good for Denver fans but a red flag for fantasy managers.

Sutton has now been held under 70 receiving yards in five straight, but he did bail you out with his fifth score of the season.

The touchdowns are going to come and go, so I find the 12.8% target share more concerning that the TD was encouraging.

I have both Franklin and Sutton ranked as strong flex options against a defense that ranks ninth worst in opponent passer rating this season. You can play both, but with the target distribution at risk of widening, the floor is worrisome for all involved.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (vs SEA)

Darnell Mooney has never been a hyper-efficient receiver because of his skill set, but this season has been bad, even by his standards.

His aDOT currently sits at a career high (15.0 yards with 40% of his looks coming 15+ yards downfield), and his yards per route are 24.5% below his career average. Over the past three weeks, he’s totaled just eight receptions, and you could, and I would, argue that all of those matchups were plus spots (Panthers, Saints, and Jets).

And now you’re comparing him against a Seahawks defense that allows points on a league-low 20.5% of drives?

Not. A. Chance.

I think he deserves to be rostered with nothing but good-weather games left on the schedule and games where this Atlanta offense is going to be forced to score to keep up, but he’s outside the flex range until we see some signs of life in this grounded offense.

Davante Adams | LAR (at ARI)

Davante Adams is battling a minor hamstring injury, and maybe that lowers his ability to elevate on touchdown celebrations, but I’m otherwise not worried until the coaching staff gives me reason to be.

We are witnessing one of the most unique seasons by a receiver in recent memory, and there are no signs of it slowing down.

The play designs and single coverage situations that present themselves in tight are elite. Still, his ability to uncover and connect with Matthew Stafford in a scramble drill for a seven-yard score last week was just another way for him to leverage his savvy.

Adams now sits alone in the seven-spot for career touchdown receptions after passing Antonio Gates last weekend and is as reliable an option in close as I can remember.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (vs PIT)

To the eye, DeAndre Hopkins still looks like a player who can make the tough catch and high-point the ball, but until the box scores give us proof, that’s a narrative not worth chasing.

He caught two passes in the loss to the Bengals, matching his season high in the process. He’s turned 160 routes into just 17 catches this season as he fills a very specific (15.3-yard aDOT) and very limited role for an offense whose passing attack is out of funk.

The Ravens are tied to hoping that he can provide a spark, but there’s no reason you should be, and that’s been clear for the majority of this season.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (at MIN)

Deebo Samuel left his imprint on the upset bid against the Broncos last week, but with Terry McLaurin back, he saw his aDOT expand, and that’s a long-term concern for a veteran receiver who struggles to separate.

On Sunday night, his aDOT was 8.6 yards, 3.4 yards higher than his highest mark over his previous five games. He and Marcus Mariota connected on a fly route late in that game, but again, that’s not where a soon-to-be 30-year-old Samuel is best suited to offer consistent fantasy production.

Last week reminded me that this is still McLaurin’s WR room. The Broncos acknowledged as much, sticking Pat Surtain on him from the jump, without forcing him to prove his health first.

That said, his unique blend of skills is awfully interesting in this spot. We know the Vikings are going to bring pressure, and all it takes is one well-designed screen at the right time for Samuel to make a house call from a distance. I prefer McLaurin over him, but I do think he soaks up some of the Zach Ertz usage from last week and lands inside the top 30 at the position this weekend.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (at LAC)

Searching for consistency in this Eagles’ passing game is a lost cause at this point.

You trust the volume, and you move on.

Smith has a target share north of 26% in five of his past six games, and he also has a 25+ yard game in five of his past six. He continues to do well in contested situations for someone of his build, and his involvement is in the AJ Brown neighborhood.

25+ yard catch in five of his past six games
Only three TDs on 86 targets this season
Target share over 26% in five of his past six

Depth of Target Splits

Under 10 Air Yards: 84.8% catch rate
10+ Air Yards: 52.5% catch rate

Those splits aren’t drastically different from Smith’s career rates, but it drives home the impact of Jalen Hurt’s throw diet (pacing for the highest aDOT and second-lowest deep completion percentage of his career.

This matchup is tough on paper, but the Packers, Vikings, and Rams aren’t exactly friendly matchups and those are the opponents that Smith has found the end zone against this season.

In the leagues where I have Smith, I’ve committed to starting him weekly, and I’m sticking with that plan this week, betting more on a condensed target distribution than fearing the recent struggles of this offense as a whole.

DJ Moore | CHI (at GB)

There are a few brand or brand-adjacent names that aren’t performing as well as we’ve come to assume, and DJ Moore is certainly on that list.

On Black Friday, he turned five targets into just 17 receiving yards, the third time in four games in which he failed to get to 20. That’s obviously a low threshold, but he’s fallen below it more often over the past month than in games with 13+ PPR points this season.

Moore posted two usable performances in November, and that’s enough to have some holding onto hope that he’s a viable flex.

I’m not there. The scoring equity is limited in this offense by mouths to feed and by Caleb Williams’s inconsistencies. That’s tough to overlook when the volume is ordinary, and he’s coming off a game with a season-low in terms of slot usage.

If the easy button targets are evaporating as Luther Burden sees his role expand, the recent struggles look to me more like the new norm than an aberration.

DK Metcalf | PIT (at BAL)

We are heading into Week 14, and DK Metcalf has had one top 30 performance since the strong showing in Week 8 (WR12).

You can blame him, Aaron Rodgers, or Arthur Smith. I don’t really care because none of it is going to be fixed right now, which is why I’m looking for reasons not to start him, if at all possible.

The Ravens defense isn’t elite, but they profile well for this matchup by ranking top-10 against short passes in terms of completion percentage, YPA, and touchdown rate. Metcalf hasn’t reached 15 expected PPR points in a game this season and has just seven end zone looks (six seasons in Seattle: 17.3 end zone targets per season).

I have him hovering around WR30 this week, a damning statement given the injuries and four teams on bye. Would I rather have a handful of short targets to him or a few deep shots to Alec Pierce (at JAX)? Chris Godwin looked spry in his return from injury, and that’s a receiver with a similar route tree that I’d prefer (vs. NO) this week.

I’m not benching him for Tre Tucker or Devaugh Vele types, but if you have someone in the same general range, try not to be a slave to the resume.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (vs CHI)

And the Packer WR carousel just keeps spinning.

With Jayden Reed on the mend, the last thing we needed was another hat thrown into the target ring, but here we are. Romeo Doubs’ usage has faded after being featured in the middle of the season, and Christian Watson’s skill set doesn’t fit that of a WR1. Still, he’s been ramped up since returning … so of course it’s Dontayvion Wicks leading the way on Thanksgiving with a 6-94-2 line in Detroit.

Shrug emoji.

He caught all four deep targets that were thrown his way on Thursday, and those two scores brought his total up to two for the season. He’s been a part-time player all season long (54.5% snap share), and that wasn’t any different in this spot (50%); he just happened to find himself in the matchups that Jordan Love liked most.

Games like this are why I think Green Bay has a shot to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but the lack of clarity at the top of the target board also means that guessing how defenses are going to align against them is a dart throw.

Take away the long ball? Bring pressure and jam the receivers before they get into space? Zone coverage?

Any technique can work, and any can fail against this spread-out offense, and that’s why I’m not reading into this Wicks performance.

If you want to throw him at the end of your roster, I’m not going to stop you. He’ll likely have at least one more usable game moving forward in how this offense functions, but there’s little in the pregame matchup data that will ever highlight him as “the guy” for a given week.

For me, it’s Watson as a cut above the other options, with a healthy Reed filling more of a stable-but-not-exciting role in three receiver sets. All are viable, but none are dependable, and that’s reflected in my rankings.

Drake London | ATL (vs SEA)

In Weeks 9-11, Drake London was the third-highest scoring player in the sport. His 82.1 PPR points over that stretch trailed only Josh Allen (90.8) and Christian McCaffrey (87.0), leading the position by 19.2 points (Jaxon Smith-Njigba).

We know he was a star, but there are levels to these things, and he was ascending despite marginal quarterback play.

A knee injury has cost him consecutive games, though, and we aren’t exactly being loaded with glowing reports about his “not serious” injury.

This profiles as one of those easy situations where you simply mirror what the professional franchise does. This would be a brutal spot to return, but with 15 of 31 Kirk Cousins targets going to Kyle Pitts or Bijan Robinson last week in New York, it’s clear that there isn’t a secondary pass catcher to take looks off the plate of London.

He’s a dynasty-building piece, and while there is some risk in trusting him after a multi-week absence whenever it comes, he’s built up enough equity for us to rely on.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (vs NO)

Not all rookie seasons look the same.

Emeka Egbuka looked unguardable early in this season when everything was clicking in this passing game, but that may have been more the result of the situation than we initially gave it credit for.

Weeks 1-5: 20.5 PPG, 60.5% over expectations, 2.50 yards per route
Weeks 6-13: 9.7 PPG, 36.3% below expectations, 1.47 yards per route

He’s still earning work, and that’s what we need to be focused on. He’s cleared a 25% target share in five straight games, something I suspect we continue to see with him being identified as the future of this passing game.

The Saints’ defense has looked better since their Week 11 bye, but offenses led by Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa aren’t exactly threatening.

With four teams on a bye and a locked role to feel good about, Egbuka is a top 20 receiver despite the recent struggles.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs MIA)

News broke earlier in November that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out of multiple games at the time of the initial diagnosis.

Given the direction of this season, it’s reasonable to think that we’ve seen the last of New York’s WR1 this season. That hasn’t been reported, and until it is, you’re holding. The required four-game absence means that Wilson can return for Week 15’s game in Jacksonville, a matchup I’d be fine with targeting, and a New Orleans matchup the following week would also be intriguing.

But I’m not counting on it.

This is a floundering team that isn’t exactly motivated to compete. This passing game is broken, but with Wilson under contract through the 2030 season, he’s their primary path to digging out. The Jets need to figure out the quarterback position, but they have a building block in their top receiver and will want to enter 2026 with him at full strength instead of putting him in harm’s way this winter.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at BUF)

Earning targets at the professional level are difficult. You have to win on your route, stay connected with your quarterback, and navigate the real-time shifts of the defense.

It’s no easy task.

Remove a threat on the other side of the field, insert a quarterback who hasn’t played in over two months, and match up with an improving defense attached to a team that is trying to regain some Super Bowl steam … a poor Ja’Chase showing in Week 13 would certainly have been easy to explain away.

Instead, he earns a 31.8% target share, clears 100 yards, and piles up 24.3 expected PPR points.

Some players are just built differently, and Chase has proven it time and time again.

The 50% catch rate obviously leaves plenty to be desired, but we have plenty of data points that suggest efficiency struggles aren’t to be taken seriously. This is as good a QB/WR connection as there is in the league, and while the Bills are better against the pass than the run, there’s no reason to panic.

Zay Flowers, Stefon Diggs, Drake London, Rashee Rice, and Jaylen Waddle are the WR1s who have posted 18+ PPR points in this matchup this season, paving the way for Chase to equal what he did on Thanksgiving if not improve.

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (vs IND)

Usually, when a team acquires a player, you hear the same stuff. The organization will praise him as a person and what he can add to the locker room, highlight his versatility, and hint at having a plan for him.

That wasn’t the case here.

Jacksonville brought in Meyers and said, “We are amazed at how often he catches the ball”.

That feels like a bit of a shot at the players in-house. Imagine you are a cook, and you are told that a company wants you because of how good you are at turning on the stove. Or you’re a truck driver with a sense of direction that can be additive.

At some level, those things are to be accepted, not highlighted, right?

Regardless of how the addition was framed, he’s making good on it. He caught all six of his Trevor Lawnrece looks in Tennessee and has now seen his PPR point total increase each week he’s spent with the team.

Week 10 at Texans: 7.1 points
Week 11 vs. Chargers: 11.4 points
Week 12 at Cardinals: 15 points
Week 13 at Titans: 21.3 points

Meyers not only had the 50-yard catch to spike his yardage total, but he also earned a 37.5% target share in Brian Thomas’ return (ankle). I don’t think a target share at that level is here to stay, but the title of top target earner on this team very well could.

I have him ranked as a low-end WR2 for fantasy and WR1 for the Jags this week. As it turns out, catching the ball is #goodforbusiness. Who knew??

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at ATL)

It happens, people, relax.

The fact that you’re in a position to complain means that your fantasy season is going to just fine.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn’t have a catch in the first 39.5 minutes of the game against the Vikings last week, a performance that dented his historic potential in a big way and probably cost you your week.

Deal with it.

Some of us are trying to navigate the time missed from Drake London, DNPs who are actually more valuable than running Justin Jefferson out there weekly. I’ll write this two-catch 23-yard stinker off to his QB, being the signal caller for last week’s opponent in 2024, thus giving them a pretty unique ability to scheme.

As for your crazy JSN stat of the week: even after a disaster in Week 13, Smith-Njigba can exceed his receiving yardage total from his first two seasons in 2025 alone if he averages 84.5 yards for the final five games of this season.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (at KC)

Jayden Higgins is moving in a positive direction for a team that is moving in a positive direction, a nice alignment of priorities, but not something that I expect to land him on our weekly radar.

The profile the rookie has put forth is impressive and will certainly be one I’ll consider for next season. He’s a viable depth piece for the final month of 2025 (4-5 receptions in four straight games), but in this matchup against the fourth-best defense in terms of limiting deep completions (2.3 per game), there is more downside in getting cute with a play like this than there is room for real reward.

My Higgins weekly ranking (usually in the 30-40 range) has as much to do with C.J. Stroud as it does the receiver himself: Are you comfortable in asking him to support three pass catchers?

I’m not.

Jayden Reed | GB (vs CHI)

The Packers opened up Jayden Reed’s (collarbone) 21-day practice window in the middle of November, and prevailing wisdom is that he takes the field for this huge NFC North battle.

This is a player that is going to be hard to trust in an offense that spreads it around, but don’t forget that Reed was battling a foot injury before the collarbone injury, and that means that we could be getting as good a version of Reed as possible once he returns.

No player in this offense has established himself as a strong target earner, thus leaving the door wide open for Reed to put himself in the PPR flex conversation the second he is officially ruled active.

I still prefer Christian Watson if we are stacking Packer pass catchers, but the case can be made for Reed if you’re backed into a corner.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at NYJ)

I was OK with the idea that Jaylen Waddle would have some down games as the WR1 in an offense that has limitations under center, but I didn’t expect consecutive iffy efforts in two plus matchups and that now has us left to worry about a wide range of outcomes for every week moving forward.

The role has been consistent, that much is fair to say. Waddle has earned 6-7 targets in four of his past five games, and he’s averaged at least 13 yards per grab in each of his past nine. But if the WR1 in an offense can go 21 game minutes without a touch, there are some scheme issues to take into consideration.

There was an end zone target directed his way, and it would have had a chance if the Saints were playing defense with 10 players, but they weren’t. That 11th man was a roaming safety that intercepted the floating pass and wiped away a chance for Waddle’s day to be made with a single play.

I don’t fear this matchup, and because I trust the quantity of looks, I can overlook my concerns on the quality side. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty of risk here, but that’s the dirty secret about the WR position: after about 13 options this week, they all carry a low floor.

Justin Jefferson vs WAS
Khalil Shakir vs CIN
Michael Pittman at JAX
Troy Franklin at LV

Those are just a few names in this massive tier of receivers that have as good a shot to finish as WR15 this week as they do WR45, and Waddle is smack in the middle of them as my WR20.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs TEN)

Jerry Jeudy has one finish better than WR32 this season.

One.

If not for his name, would you be remotely interested in rostering him?

He hasn’t been a top-50 option at the position in back-to-back-to-back weeks and now has three or fewer receptions in eight games this season.

The Browns are resigned to letting Shedeur Sanders get live reps under his belt as this season progresses, and while I agree with that organizational decision, it’s not exactly a path for Jeudy managers to recoup any value.

He’s a fast player, and Sanders at least appears more willing to explore that upside than Dillon Gabriel did. That leaves the door open for a random spike game between here and the finish line, but our ability to predict such a performance is low at best.

In theory, this soft defensive matchup would be a spot for that sort of game, but there are two sides to that coin. We know that Cleveland wants to be a run-heavy offense: what if they take an early lead and draw up 40 run plays on Sunday?

Jeudy sits outside of my top-40 at the position this week: I’d rather try to pin the tail on the Packer receiver or forecast the Luther Burden breakout spot.

John Metchie III | NYJ (vs MIA)

Right as we were coming around to John Metchie, we got a 19-yard showing.

Selfishly, I burned time on Sunday watching the Jets to see if I thought what he was doing was real, saw him drop what looked like a touchdown in the making, and then stayed tuned in long enough to see AD Mitchell score all of the points that were supposed to go to our waiver wire find.

It happens.

He still saw eight targets, and forgive me if I’m not exactly sold on Mitchell as a WR1, so I don’t think we cut ties. Our job between now and the fantasy playoffs is to determine who is the WR1 in New York and if it matters.

My money is still on Metchie (he was targeted on the first pass last week), but there’s a very real chance that it doesn’t matter. All we can do is take well-thought-out bites at the apple and let the chips fall where they may.

It’s Metchie over Mitchell for me, though both should be rostered: cheap targets are hard to find this time of year, especially for a team like the Jets, where we expect the game script to be running away from them more often than not.

Jordan Addison | MIN (vs WAS)

Through two NFL seasons, Jordan Addison proved himself as a threat downfield and a touchdown scorer. We had questions about his ability to earn targets at a high rate, but the single-play upside next to the well-rounded nature of Justin Jefferson was a perfect match.

As it turns out, skill sets are great, but you need a quarterback to make them matter, and the Vikings are learning that the hard way.

Minnesota has scored 23 points over the past three weeks, and that environment is making it nearly impossible for anyone on this offense to produce. Addison’s strengths haven’t been seen for a while (one touchdown in November and three straight games without a grab, gaining more than 15 yards), and I’m struggling to pull a single thread that has something optimistic attached to it.

This Washington matchup looks good on paper, but if the quarterback play doesn’t improve in a major way, it won’t matter. Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love, to varying degrees, have had consistency issues this season: the Commanders didn’t allow any of their receivers to score 12 PPR points.

Addison was valued too high entering this season because of a TD rate that had nowhere to go but down. This final two-month stretch could result in him actually turning into a nice buy in August if your draft room overreacts to the 2025 box score (and if Minnesota cleans up this QB room, of course).

Josh Downs | IND (at JAX)

Tyler Warren is the primary piece of this Indy passing game, and Alec Pierce holds a unique role. Those two have been less impacted by the backwards trajectory of Daniel Jones over the past month than Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, two talented receivers who share a similar role.

Downs wasn’t exactly thriving when this offense was humming, his next game with 60 receiving yards will be his first of the season, but at least he was getting looks and he was efficient.

Over the past month, his catch rate has been 35.7%, a steep decline from the 76.1% figure he put forward prior, and a crippling flaw given the low passing volume of this offense.

I’m fairly confident that Downs is a talented receiver and will have better seasons moving forward, but I don’t think the positive momentum starts this week. He runs over three-quarters of his routes out of the slot, and the Jags own the top-ranked slot defense in terms of opponent passer rating (third best in YPA).

For Week 14, both the Bears and the Chargers have a trio of receivers that I’d play over him.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs WAS)

It’s a good thing that Justin Jefferson doesn’t get paid by the catch, the yard, or the fantasy point. If that were the case, there would be social media accounts tracking his decline in the number of chains he wears during the games.

At this point, I don’t know what there is to say. We’ve seen him produce fantasy numbers with some QB uncertainty in the past, and that means that the current situation in Minnesota is as bad, if not worse, than the raw stats suggest.

On Sunday, Jefferson had catches of eight and negative-four yards. Over the course of the entire game. In a spot where the Vikes had nearly twice as many pass attempts as rush attempts due to the score of the game.

Yes, Max Brosmer had as many interceptions as Jefferson had receiving yards, something that feels made up.

That’s now five straight games under 65 receiving yards, six straight without a 30-yard catch, and an 11-game run where he has, checks notes, one touchdown reception. Entering this season, I would have thought it impossible for Jefferson to go through a stretch like this, but here we are.

The semi-good news is that if you’re still alive in your fantasy league and roster Jefferson, you probably have a helluva team that is getting production from just about everywhere else.

I’d love to give you some sort of statistical silver lining for this situation, but there’s literally nothing outside of his raw talent to cling to. The Commanders don’t generate much pressure, so maybe there’s a world where Kevin O’Connell simplifies the offense and encourages his QB to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers on timing routes, understanding that, without pressure, there should be some semblance of rhythm.

Maybe.

Hopefully.

Terry McLaurin will be in this game just one week removed from a month-long injury and facing a stiffer defense. I didn’t hesitate to rank him above Jefferson. He’s ranked next to Christian Watson and Khalil Shakir this week, and of that trio, I’m not at all sold that he holds the highest ceiling or the highest floor.

Keenan Allen | LAC (vs PHI)

This season, 26 of Keenan Allen’s 60 receptions have come on third down, proof positive that while he’s struggling to light up the fantasy scoreboard (one top-35 finish after a hot three-game run to open the season), the Chargers are getting what they need.

Good for them, bad for us.

Allen has had five straight games since his 11-119-1 line against the Colts, with 2-4 catches, and given the chain-moving mentality of those looks, they don’t exactly carry much in the way of upside.

On the bright side, I don’t know how mashup-reliant Allen’s profile is. The bad teams don’t force as many third-down situations, so I’d argue that stiffer defenses actually increase the target projection for Los Angeles’ veteran WR3.

At some level, that’s splitting hairs because he hasn’t done enough to hit your lineup consistently. Still, with a tough finishing kick (Eagles-Chiefs-Cowboys-Texans-Broncos), it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s their second most productive receiver and on the fringes of viability in deeper PPR formats.

Allen currently resides in that uncomfortable ranking zone where I’m not green-lighting a drop, but I’d also be hard-pressed to start him.

Keon Coleman | BUF (vs CIN)

Keon Colmeman found the end zone in Pittsburgh last week, a touchdown that had to do wonders for his mental state after being a healthy scratch in consecutive games.

I’d love to get excited about a big target in this Josh Allen offense, but they’ve shown no willingness to feature him, and it sounds like he hasn’t exactly been holding up his end of the bargain either.

He’s a high-risk, medium-reward player at best, and considering that nine different Bills ran 9-21 routes last week, the target ceiling just isn’t high enough for me to label him as a roster-worthy dart throw.

If exposure to this Buffalo offense is what you want, Gabe Davis led their WRs in routes run last week and has more institutional knowledge than Coleman when it comes to this Allen-led system.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs CIN)

We are coming up on 18 months of pitching Khalil Shakir as a high-floor play, but he’s been anything but that over the past month:

7 catches for 58 yards
1 catch for -3 yards
8 catches for 110 yards
1 catch for 5 yards

I can handle some volatility, but it’s the nonsensical nature of it that’s the problem. The pass funnel Bucs were responsible for that -3-yard showing, and the Texans, one of the best defenses in the entire NFL, were gashed for his only 100-yard showing of the season.

I recommend starting Shakir every week, just to lock in the points (usually), but if you were playing the matchup game, you’re probably even more frustrated.

The Bengals are a bottom-10 defense against the slot in terms of passer rating, YPA, and touchdown rate, all things that should point to a nice bounce-back week for Shakir. I’m rinsing off the recent swings in production, remembering that he should have had a touchdown on a well-designed red zone route combination if Josh Allen didn’t try to throw the ball through him from five yards away, and playing him as a low-end PPR WR2.

We aren’t asking for much. Just give us the five-for-60 lines that we’ve come to know and love.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs PHI)

It took a minute for Ladd McConkey to get the engine revved this season, but I’m OK with where things stand now and feel comfortable starting him weekly in all formats.

He was held without a touchdown in September, but he hasn’t been held out of the paint in consecutive games since. The upside has been lacking of late (52 yards on 10 targets over his past two games), and the Justin Herbert hand injury is certainly worth monitoring. Still, the once-confusing hierarchy of this passing game seems to have returned to what we assumed it would be this summer.

For those already looking ahead to next season, I’d say there’s a good chance I’m a reasonable amount higher than others in the industry when it comes to the ranking of McConkey.

Luther Burden III | CHI (at GB)

It’s a slow grind, and while we are getting there (three straight games with 5+ targets, including a game on Thanksgiving in which he led the Bears in looks), it seems more likely than not that we run out of time for redraft purposes.

His target share has settled in the 16.7% – 18.8% range for all three of those games, a passable rate for a player like this if his QB is playing at a very high level, but Caleb Williams isn’t doing that right now.

This is a team that is aware that run blocking is their strength, and we saw them lean into that in a major way last week. It still feels as if we might have a big game at some point over the final month of the season, but the profile isn’t going to get to a point where we can project it with high confidence.

Read the Rome Odunze section. At this point, a bet on Burden is effectively a bet against Odunze and the other target competition in Chicago. This matchup looks like a problem spot for their WR1 and, in theory, that opens the door for an outlier Burden game (one game with more than 51 receiving yards this season).

If you want to lean into the pedigree, I’d suggest doing so in a DFS format where, if you connect the dots, you open yourself up to a big payday, rather than a single win in a season-long format.

Marquise Brown | KC (vs HOU)

This offense as a whole hasn’t exactly been what we signed up for, which makes banking on the fourth option impossible.

Marquise Brown left Thanksgiving hungry after earning just two targets in the loss to the Cowboys. Yeah, he scored his fifth touchdown of the season, but he was fifth on the team in routes and receiving yards, a role that just isn’t worth chasing in the least.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

With one game of more than two receptions since the middle of October, this is a profile that isn’t worth your time, even with him being attached to a desperate Kansas City offense.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs LAR)

Marvin Harrison Jr. returned from his appendicitis operation and was featured in a Michael Wilson-like way.

The presumed WR1 of this offense looked the part with three catches (25 yards) on the first drive and was pretty clearly the top man on the depth chart when looking at the distribution of looks in the first 30 minutes.

First Half Receiving Data at Buccaneers

Harrison: 4 catches on 4 targets, 46 yards
Trey McBride: 3 catches on 3 targets, 17 yards
Michael Carter: 1 catch on 2 targets, 14 yards
Michael Wilson: 1 catch on 2 targets, 10 yards
Elijah Higgins: 1 catch on 1 target for 8 yards

Harrison matched a season high with seven receptions, and it was his efficiency (seven targets) that should have you excited. This offense under Jacoby Brissett is a high-volume passing attack, and if he’s going to be the top receiver, he’s got a very clear path to a top 20 ranking.

The WRs who have hurt Los Angeles most recently have been the secondary options (outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 11), and that’s a concern if they slant their coverage in the direction of Harrison after this performance.

With some risk factored in, Harrison is a starter for me in all formats as long as Brissett is throwing the ball all over the yard.

Matthew Golden | GB (vs CHI)

Matthew Golden was inactive on Thanksgiving due to a wrist injury. Still, considering that he was a limited participant in practice during the short week, it’s easy to connect the dots and say that he is down a ways on this depth chart.

With Jayden Reed trending back and Dontayvion Wicks showing well for himself in the win over the Lions, you can safely cut ties with Golden in redraft formats. The first round draft capital argument will make itself known entering 2026, and we can address that moment when we get to it: for now, this is a receiver with a single strength that isn’t prioritized by this offense.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at JAX)

Michael Pittman managers were living the good life for two-plus months, but the Daniel Jones passing game seems to be leaking some oil, and his WR1 is feeling it in a significant way.

Over his past three games, Pittman has turned 89 routes into just 59 receiving yards with his 0.57 PPR points per target last week against the Texans easily being his low water mark for the season.

The worst part?

In comparing his profile for those three games to the first nine of his season, it doesn’t look drastically different. In fact, with a dip in aDOT and a rise in slot usage, I’d argue that the role he has filled of late should be MORE efficient than the one he held prior.

That makes this a Jones problem and there;s really nothing you can do about that. This offense works through Jonathan Taylor, and with splash plays hitting at a high rate to Alec Pierce, the drives are either run-centric or over quick because of a bomb, neither of which is optimal for those holding Pittman stock.

The Jags have allowed the opponents’ top-producing WR to clear his season-long PPR average in nine of 12 games this season, and Pittman did clear 13 fantasy points in both games against them last season, so all hope is not lost.

He profiles as a reasonably strong PPR flex. There were moments earlier in the season where he was on the verge of cracking the top 15 at the position thanks to a role that seemed bulletproof, but the math has changed a bit lately, and if Indy has its way, this is a run-heavy game that suffocates the Jags.

Nico Collins | HOU (at KC)

Nico Collins had reached his expected point total in just three of his first eight games this season, but he’s now done it in three straight, and it all feels sustainable.

Last week against the Colts was the fourth time this season that he saw over 30% of the targets go his way, and it was the fifth time in six games that he cleared 100 air yards.

Leveraging his athletic profile is one thing, but how about a gadget reverse from seen yards out to get him the first rushing score of his career?

I’d argue it took too long, but better late than never. The Texans are embracing a very sharp plan of getting the ball to their best player regularly, and they’ve won four straight. Collins’ best production this season could be in front of him, and while this is obviously a tough matchup, this is a player who, at the peak of his powers, is matchup-proof.

CeeDee Lamb scored 24.2 PPR points against the Chiefs during the Thanksgiving upset, and that was despite Dallas often disclosing its plan to “go to 88.” I don’t think the Texans need to announce it; they just need to do it.

Parker Washington | JAX (vs IND)

A hip injury kept Parker Washington in the locker room for the second half last week, a tough break for fantasy managers who had been riding the hot hand (three top 20 finishes in the first four games out of the bye).

We will see where his status lands as the week progresses, but even at full strength, he’s not going to be a player I recommend starting.

It’s pretty clear that Jakobi Meyers fits this offense like a glove, so with Brian Thomas and Brenton Strange nearing full health, how many targets are there realistically to be earned?

In each of those aforementioned top 20 finishes, the 23-year-old had earned at least seven targets. I’m intrigued by what he can do with the ball in his hands, but I’m skeptical that this offense is going to prioritize his usage in any sort of meaningful way now that this offense is as put-together as it’s been since the Meyers trade.

He should remain involved, but a 3-5 target projection is very different from what he was seeing, and that’ll leave him outside of my top 40 at the position should he clear all recovery hurdles heading into the weekend.

Pat Bryant | DEN (at LV)

Pat Bryant ran more routes on Sunday night than Troy Franklin (37-32) and led the receiver room in targets (nine), but he didn’t exactly pay off the plus-usage (7.2 PPR points).

This is exactly the receiver profile I stash at the very back-end of my rosters as I prepare for the playoffs. He’s set a season high in targets earned in consecutive weeks, and while there is nothing guaranteed moving forward, he’s clearly got the attention of this coaching staff and is trending in the right direction.

I’m not ranking him ahead of Courtland Sutton or Troy Franklin right now, and I don’t think there’s a real chance he jumps them for the WR1 role on this depth chart. That said, he’s on the field plenty, and that allows him to be Denver’s WR1 for any one isolated week.

Fliers like Rashid Shaheed or Jayden Higgins don’t really have that within their realistic range of weekly outcomes. The Bryants of the world (Keon Coleman and AD Mitchell qualify) have a real path to bail you out if you’re stuck, and that’s what I want access to should I be forced to start someone buried on my roster.

Puka Nacua | LAR (at ARI)

Davante Adams scores twice, and Matthew Stafford plays his worst game of the season.

That was the Week 13 runout for the Rams, a combination of events that allowed Puka Nacua to bust, but he still caught six passes for 72 yards. With everything working against him, he finishes the week with more PPR points than Justin Jefferson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and DK Metcalf.

Combined.

He made one of the catches of the year with a back-handed stab down the field, just a reminder of the talent he has access to. Shake off the inefficient outing (66.7% catch rate, down from the 81.6% figure he entered the week with) and be thrilled that you have one of the few stars who has as high a floor, when healthy, as any player in the sport.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs PHI)

Quentin Johnston got the touchdown on the Chargers’ first drive last week as Justin Herbert quickly identified a mismatch with a linebacker and paired him off.

But that was really all we got from QJ against the Raiders.

He airballed in Week 11 and scored in double figures in Week 13: his expected point totals were just 0.3 PPR points apart between the two showings. The version we’ve seen of Johnston lately is the version we’ve come to know, and that makes him more risk than reward on a week-to-week basis.

Weeks 1-5: 22.7% target share
Weeks 7-13: 15.2% target share
Career: 16.2% target share

The Eagles own the third-highest opponent average depth of target this season, so if you want to roll out there as a Captain for your MNF Showdown lineup as a way of getting different, be my guest. In that situation, it’s a big swing, small miss situation. Playing him in a season-long situation is a bit different, and the risk involved is why I have him ranked outside of my top 35 at the position.

Rashee Rice | KC (vs HOU)

The word “unstoppable” is probably a little strong, but Rashee Rice is the apple of Andy Reid’s eye, and that is about as advantageous a spot as we could possibly ask for.

On top of the YAC skills that jump off the screen regularly and the clear slant of the playcalling to keep him engaged, we got a red zone wildcat snap last week. It didn’t work, but the idea of putting the ball in his hands and taking it out of Patrick Mahomes’ in a scoring situation tells you just how he is looked at in the building.

109 receptions
144 targets
1,292 yards
10 touchdowns

That’s what Rice has given you over his past 15 healthy regular-season games. His 37.5% target share on Thanksgiving was a season high, and he was the only Chief to see the ball thrown his way on third down multiple times.

Kansas City has no room for error, and they have no interest in taking usage off the plate of their WR1. If you told me that Rice was the top-scoring receiver in the sport moving forward, I wouldn’t blink, and you can make the case that he’ll be a first-round pick in August.

You rolled the dice on him in your draft, and you are being rewarded in a major way for doing so.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (at ATL)

I can see it now. And you can come back to me on X (KyleSoppePFN) when it happens.

Rashid Shaheed, after not making any real impact for two months, makes a splash play or two in a big Seattle playoff win. It’ll confirm our initial thoughts of their trading for him, but after our fantasy seasons are over, they can no longer benefit.

That’ll be annoying.

The burner has been held in the 46-56% snap share range for three straight games, and he has a total of 8.0 PPR points over that stretch. Not eight points per game, eight total points.

If you want a lottery ticket at the end of your roster, I’m stubborn enough to hold on to Shaheed, but this being the second-lowest volume passing game in the league (27.3, only Baltimore throws less) has killed his trajectory and leaves him outside of my top 35 this week.

That said, the fast track of Atlanta would be something to cling to if you’re looking for a low-owned DFS option that comes preloaded with slate-breaking upside.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs PIT)

Rashod Bateman (ankle) returned to action against the Bengals on Thursday night, but you wouldn’t know it unless you avoided a turkey-induced coma and were truly locked in, as he failed to catch his only target on 30 routes.

His yards per route (0.78) and air yards per game (42.9) are easily pacing for career lows, trends I don’t see reversing any time soon. Zay Flowers looks the part of a WR1, and with a pair of viable tight ends, there’s simply not enough volume to chase for a player that has yet to really prove capable of doing so.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at GB)

Fantasy football is funny, isn’t it?

You drafted Rome Odunze as your WR3 or WR4 this summer with the thought being that he could, with time, take work off the plate and DJ Moore, and peak at the right time. That you might have to lose the initial fight, but that you’d be in a good position to win the war.

You were right about Odunze being more talented than the industry gave him credit for, but man, you were wrong about the run-out.

He scored five times in September and was threatening weekly top 10s as we flipped the calendar to October. Since, however, it’s been unsteady to say the least … exactly the inverse of what you expected.

He’s scored just one touchdown since that opening burst and has turned 21 targets into just 102 yards (seven catches) over the past three weeks. Is this a receiver we should consider benching until he rediscovers his early-season form?

As it turns out, it depends on what you think of the matchup of the lines.

Chicago has allowed pressure on under 32% of dropbacks six times and over 32% six times this season.

Rome Odunze Splits

Low-pressure games: 18.5 PPR PPG, 27.8% target share, 5.0 catches
High-pressure games: 5.8 PPR PPG, 19.2% target share, 2.3 catches

This means that a bet on Odunze is effectively one against Micah Parsons.

You can do that if you’d like, but I’m not. The Packers have created pressure on at least one-third of opponent dropbacks in 10 of 12 games and are gaining confidence when they elect to blitz (13th in blitzed pressure rate through Week 6, third best since).

The 49ers (Week 17) are the only below-average pressure defense left on the Bears’ schedule: I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the trends fit the recent trajectory when it comes to Odunze.

Romeo Doubs | GB (vs CHI)

In the middle of the season, it appeared that Romeo Doubs was the answer to the WR1 debate in Green Bay, but with under 25 receiving yards in two straight and three of four, that competition isn’t just back open; I’m not sure he’s in the conversation.

Tucker Kraft was the right answer to the “who is the most reliable pass catcher in this offense” question that we’ve been asking since Davante Adams left town, but with him out of the mix, this situation was Doubs’ to take.

It hasn’t happened, and he’s trending in a direction where I’d cut him loose for a stable handcuff if the opportunity presented itself. Thursday was a huge game against the Lions, with Josh Jacobs coming off a DNP and a high point total: in theory, that’s a spot where a true asset would shine.

Nope.

He saw just 10% of the first half targets, a signal that this coaching staff isn’t making getting him looks a priority. He scored, and that ultimately saved you if you were backed into starting him, but be aware that you were more likely than not with that decision.

When he was targeted, it wasn’t in a dangerous way. His 2.8-yard aDOT against Detroit was underwhelming, and this role isn’t going to be available as Jayden Reed mends. This is a run-first offense that likes taking deep shots to Christian Watson. It’s not a complicated system, and with Dontayvion Wicks leaving his fingerprints all over the turkey last week, Doubs’ time to shine appears to be gone.

Holding Doubs is acceptable in leagues where the waiver wire is thin. I’m not cutting ties with him for the hot receiver on a bad team of the week type, but I’m also not hesitating to move on should a reasonable handcuff be available in your league.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at BUF)

Suffering a concussion means a missed game more often than not, and considering that the Bengals had a quick turnaround last week, Tee Higgins never really had a shot to pass through the needed protocols in time.

That said, it does sound like he’s good to go for this week, and with Joe Burrow returning in Week 13, there’s no real reason to feel skittish in starting his star receiver.

Higgins has scored five times in his past five games and was drafted as a fringe WR1 this summer, when the assumption was that this offense would look like the one it currently does. Ja’Marr Chase is the alpha in this passing game, and that’s not going to change, but there’s enough food on the table for multiple pass catchers to be fed, especially if this offense is forced to play catch-up with Josh Allen on the other side.

Higgins’ yards per route are down 29.1% from a season ago: you can feel good about a more efficient version of him moving forward, and I’d expect to see it on Sunday.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at MIN)

Terry McLaurin played for the first time since Week 8, and to say that the Commanders showed zero reservations in working him back into the mix would be a vast understatement.

Week 13 WR Usage

Deebo Samuel: 43 routes and 7 targets
Treylon Burks: 39 routes and 4 targets
McLaurin: 33 routes and 14 targets
Jaylin Lane: 18 routes and 1 target
Chris Moore: 12 routes and 0 targets

Yep, that’ll play. Eight of his looks came when locking horns with Pat Surtain, a heck of a way to be welcomed back with a backup QB calling the shots, but he grinded through the brutal matchup and rewarded you for your loyalty.

The Vikes haven’t allowed a receiver to clear 12.1 PPR points in four straight, and their aggression puts opposing offenses in a rather unique bind. That said, one way to beat the exotic schemes is to get rid of the ball in a hurry, a game plan we saw this Washington offense execute against the Broncos.

Tory Horton | SEA (at ATL)

Ahead of Week 12, Tory Horton was placed on injured reserve due to a shin injury.

The expectation was for him to miss a game or two, but with this designation, he’s shelved for another two games at minimum, and that has him firmly off of redraft fantasy radars.

He showed moments of viability and should be considered a deeper league sleeper next season, depending on where he sits on the depth chart. Still, when it comes to the stretch run of 2025, you can feel good about moving on and opening up a roster spot as a result.

Xavier Worthy | KC (vs HOU)

Thursday was a reasonable step forward for Xavier Worthy, putting him back in the flex mix after being a reasonable, comfortable bench for a month.

Against the Cowboys on Thursday, he caught four of six targets and offered up an explosive play with Patrick Mahomes running for his life (42-yard gain). It was the first time since Week 7 that the burner met or exceeded expectations on the type of targets he was getting, and that’s progress.

He’s far from a lineup lock given the volume that Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are demanding. Still, his ability to thrust himself into that conversation in terms of opportunity count is all we can realistically ask for.

His only touchdown catch of the season came back in Week 6, also the date of his last end zone target. His slot usage has dipped some since Rice returned, and that lowers the floor, but it’s his red zone usage, or lack thereof, that is to blame for his underachieving stat line this season.

Last year, Worthy was looked at on 24.3% of his routes inside the 20-yard line. Through 13 weeks, that rate has been more than sliced in half (10.9%), leaving chaotic big plays as his only real path to a ceiling performance.

There aren’t 10 players in the league more capable of making those plays, but it’s a dangerous line to walk, something fantasy managers are obviously aware of, given the recent struggles.

Houston is a Tier 1 defense in many ways, and that carries over to its ability to defend the deep pass. They rank in the top quarter of the league against passes thrown 15+ yards in terms of YPA, passer rating, and touchdown rate. It’s fine to view Week 13 as a net positive for Worthy while still not being comfortable with him in your starting lineup.

That’s where I’ve landed. With four teams on a bye, he’s a fringe top 30 receiver for me and a risky proposition if your matchup is expected to come down to the wire.

Zay Flowers | BAL (vs PIT)

I hope you enjoyed the first half of your Thanksgiving, because if you rostered Zay Flowers and hoped the nightcap would be a highlight, you were left wanting more.

Or, really, anything.

He turned seven targets into just six yards, had a TD wiped off the board due to a 50/50 offensive pass interference call, and, for good measure, lost a fumble.

The production stunk, but duds happen. What worried me was the fact that Lamar Jackson had plenty of success throwing to the other two featured pass catchers (nine completions for 142 yards on 12 targets to Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews) and that Flowers’ aDOT was a career-high 14.3 yards.

Now, some of that was the result of the game flow, but the concern is still there: if Flowers’ route tree is pushed vertically in favor of these two-tight-end sets that prioritize the bigger weapons in close, the range of outcomes widens in a significant way.

I’m hoping that last week was an aberration, not a new norm, and ranking based on that basic assumption. Flowers had scored double figures in nine of 11 games before last week (even without a TD since Week 1), and I’m keeping that as my baseline for a minimum expectation … for now.

Soppe’s Fantasy WR Start-Sit Week 14 Players Include Justin Jefferson, Christian Watson, DK Metcalf, and Others