Kyle Soppe’s Week 14 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (at BAL)

This has a real Brett Favre in his sunset feel to it, and I just don’t love seeing Hall of Fame caliber players go out on their shield like this.

Aaron Rodgers was a bloody mess working through Sunday’s game against the Bills, the third time in four contests in which he averaged under six yards per pass. He finished November with three touchdown passes in four games and has yet to reach 250 yards through the air once in 2025.

The Ravens boast the sixth-best red zone defense in the NFL, and with Rodgers unable (or unwilling) to attack vertically (one deep completion on 14 attempts over his past four games), it’s hard to talk yourself into anything but another dud.

Some retire from the game, some have the game retire them.

Baker Mayfield | TB (vs NO)

Baker Mayfield was gutty on Sunday against the Cardinals, as we’ve come to expect, but the help wasn’t there, and the game didn’t skew in the needed direction for him to impact fantasy lineups.

Sadly, I think there’s a good chance we see more of the same in this spot with his Bucs installed as more than a touchdown favorite.

Chris Godwin looked far better than I expected, but he dropped a touchdown over the weekend, and he wasn’t the only one to let his QB down. Following the dropped score, Mayfield did what anyone would: he found the best set of hands on the team and went that way.

Tristan Wirfs with the thick man touchdown!

Mayfield has only two top-15 finishes at the position since getting there in Week 6, and he’s in a logjam of a tier that extended from QB11 down to QB17. At the moment, he checks in as my QB12, just behind Jordan Love and ahead of Daniel Jones.

Bo Nix | DEN (at LV)

It certainly does feel like we are entering a ‘less is more’ era for Bo Nix.

Not in the usage department (Sunday night was his fourth game with 40+ pass attempts this season), but in the type of usage. His average depth of throw against the Commanders was a season-low 4.4 yards, and his upside through the air dipped in a meaningful way in November.

• September-October: 0.43 fantasy points per pass
• November: 0.31 fantasy points per pass

That may not seem like a ton, but multiply it by 40 attempts, and it’s a 4.8-point swing (in Week 13, less than three fantasy points separated QB3 from QB9, and 4.6 was the difference from QB5 to QB13).

It matters.

I liked seeing him spread the ball around last week (eight players had multiple receptions), and Vegas allows the third most red zone trips per game this season at 3.9. There’s certainly a path to him posting top 10 numbers, but with the rushing more misses than hits lately and my belief that the Broncos may not need to go with a high volume passing attack, he sits at QB15 for me.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (at KC)

Does this season feel weird to anyone else?

It does to me, so I looked into it.

Last year, through 13 weeks, 20 times did a starting quarterback throw 10+ passes, win the game, and score less than 10 fantasy points.

That’s a bit of a mouthful, but it’s basically a look at how often a team has needed basically nothing from their QB to get the desired result on the scoreboard.

We’ve had 28 this season, a list that C.J. Stroud joined for the first time last week against the Colts, a game that saw him throw 35 passes but finish with zero touchdowns.

For the season, he has just 11 TD passes on 277 attempts, and facing the seventh-best red zone defense in the league isn’t exactly a get-right spot for him.

This defense seems to keep every game tight, no matter how the offense is performing, and that means the coaching staff is happy with Stroud as long as he doesn’t make a major mistake.

His aDOT is similar to last season (8.2 from 8.3), but the percentage of passes thrown 15+ yards downfield has fallen from 22.9% to 18.8%. He’s picking and choosing his spots based on the circumstance, and that’s a great plan for the Texans.

It leaves us wanting more, with little path to getting it.

Stroud was fantasy’s top-scoring QB back in Week 5, but that’s his only top-10 finish of the season, and I don’t think we see that change here. Despite a lack of a running game and a game-breaking receiver, Stroud is on the outside looking in at streaming options in a week that has four teams on a bye.

Caleb Williams | CHI (at GB)

The Bears are rolling right now, and the Ben Johnson system is being executed, but in the fantasy world, it looks nothing like it did in Detroit a season ago.

That’s fine for the leaders of the NFC North, but Williams isn’t a viable option for us right now, and the Packers on an extended week isn’t exactly a spot where I expect that to flip.

How did Chicago upset Philadelphia on Black Friday? Well, 281 rushing yards helps, and over 38 minutes of possession is a good way to get it done.

Some teams require their best players to put up massive fantasy numbers to keep up (think the 2024 Bengals), and those are the situations that lead us to success. Offenses like this, the Chicago one, are often detrimental.

We see the success, and we want a piece of the action. Williams has the tools of a fantasy asset, and we saw it earlier in the season, but he was under 59% complete in every November game, has failed to throw for multiple scores in three of his past four, and has cleared 27 rushing yards in nine of his past 11.

He’s a game manager as far as we are concerned. The turnover he threw last week was his first in over a month, a result of a conservative plan. The Rome Odunze breakout season has hit the skids, and Williams has gone four straight without a 30-yard completion.

He’s developing into a better NFL QB but regressing as a fantasy option. He spread out the looks in Week 13 (3-6 targets to six of his teammates), another trait that holds more weight in “real” football than our game.

The growth is great for this franchise and bad for us. Both things can be true.

Cameron Ward | TEN (at CLE)

We are in December, and Cam Ward is still looking for the first multi-TD pass game of his career (412 attempts and seven touchdowns). While I do believe that subtle positive steps are being taken, a season low 3.7 yards per attempt over the weekend against the Jags was a disaster.

The Titans are at least letting him learn. That’s three straight games with 37+ pass attempts, and I think we will see that pay dividends in the future, maybe as soon as 2026 if this team can improve the cast around him.

That might be wishful thinking.

The recent uptick in volume gives Myles Garrett and Company a pathway to hanging a big D/ST fantasy point total the way the Seahawks did last week against the Vikings, swinging matchups left and right.

Dak Prescott | DAL (at DET)

If Dallas is going to threaten running the table truly, Dak Prescott is going to have to continue to put up the gaudy numbers that he’s made routine this season.

We saw Joe Flacco come into Cincinnati and be relentless in targeting his top targets, a plan that Prescott is also executing at a high level. Against the Chiefs last week, he threw 15 passes beyond the sticks, and 13 of them went to either CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens.

That’s good for business and is how you throw multiple TD passes in seven of nine games. On Thursday, we saw him throw a pair of TDs under duress, matching his total number of such touchdown tosses in his previous seven games.

I still don’t trust him to add any value with his legs, and that naturally limits his ceiling in this era of duality, but the number of pocket passers I’d rather have this week is low. I’ll take Prescott over Goff in this game and as a QB1 option across all formats.

Daniel Jones | IND (at JAX)

It’s now or never.

I understand that the strong start to the season from Daniel Jones could be a big reason as to why you’re in the playoff mix right now. Still, if he can’t right the ship in a big way this weekend, you’re not going to be even close to considering him next week in Seattle, the first round of the postseason for many.

Dimes has been held under 17 fantasy points in four straight, and while the last two can be explained away by matchups (Chiefs and Texans), you need to be comfortable in your QB producing in any spot if you’re starting him with the season on the line.

The Jags allow the fourth most completions per game (23.8), so there’s hope on the volume side of things for a quarterback that hasn’t reached 20 completions in three straight and has seen 54 attempts total, just 382 yards over his past two.

There’s hope, but I’m pessimistic.

Single-digit rushing yards in four of his past six games mean it is a cheat code we can no longer bank on, and his 2-of-11, 14-yard performance when blitzed last week could have a lasting impact on how teams defend the Colts.

In Weeks 1-6, the Jags blitzed at the 15th highest rate, but since then, they rank ninth, and I’d expect plenty of exotic looks in this critical game. Jones is outside my circle of trust, ranking outside my top 12, mainly because I don’t see a tremendous ceiling.

Geno Smith | LV (vs DEN)

If you need me to sell you on fading Geno Smith, you haven’t been paying attention.

If you need me to sell you on fading the Broncos matchup, you haven’t been paying attention.

This very movable force met the immovable object a month ago, and it went about how you’d expect: 5.5 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns, and six sacks.

I’d rarely advocate for a reasonable WR3 over a QB in a Superflex setting, but yeah, I’d rather play Smith’s former teammate in Jakobi Meyers (vs. IND) if stuck between a rock and a hard place in a league like that. Smith has two finishes better than QB15 this season, has two multi-pass-TD games over his past eight games, and hasn’t reached 15 rushing yards in a game since September.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (vs WAS)

Max Brosmer got the start last week for J.J. McCarthy (concussion), something that some speculated was a soft benching.

Label it whatever you’d like: McCarthy hasn’t shown anything on the field to dismiss those questions. For the season, he’s completed just 54.1% of his passes with 10 interceptions against six touchdowns.

There have been moments of viability, and he’s making the effort to get his top options the ball, but failing to do so at a comical level.

Only time will tell what McCarthy’s future holds in the NFL, but for fantasy purposes, he’s not close to mattering, something that is difficult to do given the situation he’s in.

Jacoby Brissett | ARI (vs LAR)

This is a volume-based business, and it would appear that you’re never going to get cheated on that front when you invest in Jacoby Brissett.

The “backup” QB has put the ball in the air 40+ times in four straight, and he’s completed over 72% of his attempts in two of his past three. The touchdown came in the red zone last week against the Bucs, a crushing mistake in a game that ended up being a 20-17 loss, but for our purposes, he continues to pay the bills with an elevated floor.

Brissett has multiple TD tosses in six of seven starts, and it’s really not a complicated formula: throw it to your best players.

Marvin Harrison was welcomed back with seven targets, combining with Trey McBride for 48.3% of Arizona’s receptions. Much like the initial Joe Flacco burst, opponents know exactly where the targets are going, and they can’t do anything about it.

Bryce Young completed 75% of his passes against the Rams last week. That’s not to say that this elite defense is now vulnerable, but it’s a gentle reminder that matchups are a single data point, not the entire story. I’ve got Brissett ranked as a low-end QB1 and think you’re going to keep rolling him out there until we have a real reason to pivot.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (at LAC)

Is it just me, or is it hard to find an elite quarterback we truly feel good about these days?

Jalen Hurts finished Friday’s loss with reasonable counting numbers (261 total yards with a pair of touchdown passes to A.J. Brown). Still, one scoring drive came with the game essentially already decided.

No one cares for fantasy purposes, but you get the idea: things just don’t look the same as they did a year ago. Hurts has completed under 58% of his passes in three of his past four and largely doesn’t look comfortable in dictating this offense through the air.

The Tush Push touchdowns are always a factor, so the fact that he’s cleared 30 rushing yards in three straight is encouraging. This is a difficult matchup, but it feels like this unit is more about internal battles than about how the opponent approaches them. Hurts’ overarching issues have less impact on value, and that’s why you can continue to bank on him as a fine QB1, even if the current ceiling doesn’t match what you had in mind back in August.

Jared Goff | DET (vs DAL)

This is one of the more interesting decisions of the week.

A month ago, a Jared Goff home start against the Cowboys with four teams on a bye would have pushed him in the direction of the top 5 at the position. But now? After Dallas’ defense has come to life and Amon-Ra St. Brown is out of the mix, is Goff even a starter?

He’s thrown multiple TD passes in four of five and seven of nine games, a nice baseline when attached to a creative system like this that is propped up by elite talent.

With St. Brown sidelined, however, the math changes. Jameson Williams is a talented receiver, but is he ready to be the focus of both the offense and defense? Is this Dallas as real as they’ve looked over the past three weeks?

We will get a lot of answers to those questions on Thursday night, but I’m fading Goff if allowed. The Dallas improvement has been one based on pressure and a shortened depth of target … the exact spot where the absences of St. Brown and LaPorta are most likely to be felt.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (at MIN)

It’s believed that Jayden Daniels (elbow) could suit up for this game after practicing in part last week, thus setting the stage.

We could debate about the rationale that goes into that decision, but at the end of the day, that’s not our job. This season, he has a rush TD or multiple passing scores in four of six games, and while it hasn’t looked the same as his standout rookie season, a healthy version of him is a fantasy asset.

After this week, the Commanders go Giants-Eagles-Cowboys to close the fantasy season. We catch a break with the second Philadelphia game coming in Week 18, and the other three opponents over that stretch don’t scare me in a major way.

We can deal with the Eagles matchup in Week 16 (a Saturday kickoff) when/if the time comes. I’ve got him penciled into my top 12 this week, understanding that this was a non-throwing arm injury that, if he’s comfortable, should only impact his viability for our purposes in a minor way.

Joe Burrow | CIN (at BUF)

Was Joe Burrow in his borderline MVP form on Thursday night?

Not close.

Did he show enough to consider him a strong play for the remainder of this season?

Without a doubt.

In a road game against an improving Ravens defense, he completed 24-of-46 passes for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He took just one sack, threw a touchdown against the blitz, and showed far more pocket mobility than I expected after the toe injury cost him over two months.

All Joe Burrow does is throw to (2) #1 WRs …. Yeah ok.😏 #ninevicious pic.twitter.com/TIRgeLDLQz

— ZIM (@zimwhodey) December 3, 2025

That’s all we needed, right? Breadcrumbs. No one expected a vintage performance; we were just happy to have Burrow back in our lives, and I thought he delivered.

What will I be looking for this weekend in terms of areas of growth? Here’s a look at how last week stacked up with his career rates in some categories that I often monitor when chasing fantasy upside.

Week 13 vs. Ravens

• 28.6% deep completion rate
• 4.7 YPA when pressured
• 65.2 red zone passer rating

Career

• 44.9% deep completion rate
• 6.8 YPA when pressured
• 96.3 red zone passer rating

We went from zero production to an upset win over a desperate rival. I’d say that’s a win for all involved. I’d have no problem rolling Burrow out there as my fantasy starter for the remainder of the way (assuming you were streaming the position every week, you can feel good about using that roster spot to add flex depth instead of rostering a second QB).

Jordan Love | GB (vs CHI)

Get pressure or pay the consequences.

It sounds simplistic, and that’s because it is. If you don’t speed up Jordan Love, he’s going to pick you apart systematically.

During this three-game win streak, he’s completed 33-of-45 non-pressured passes (73.3%) for 406 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. On Thanksgiving, he trimmed his circle of trust regarding usage, a sign that he might be getting comfortable with his weapons.

In the upset of the Lions, 174 of his 234 passing yards, not to mention three of four touchdowns, went to Dontayvion Wicks or Christian Watson. In a lot of ways, he’s maturing, but there is one more step he needs to take before putting himself in the tier of pocket-based QBs whom I trust weekly.

Play-Action YPA

• 2023: 9.5
• 2024: 8.9
• 2025: 7.9

We’ve got some shootout potential in this spot, and that’s where I like playing Love. This is an offense that prefers to function through the ground game, but if Chicago can push the pace a bit, we stand to see over 20 completions for the first time in a month from Love.

The skill set comes with risk, but there are enough paths to success in a game that projects like this for me to feel confident in plugging in Green Bay’s signal caller.

Josh Allen | BUF (vs CIN)

Josh Allen wasn’t asked to do much on Sunday, and that resulted in an underwhelming fantasy day by his superhuman standards, but if 16.7 fantasy points is in play for a day that sees Buffalo running backs record 42 rush attempts, we take it.

With the touchdown run in the fourth quarter, Allen broke Cam Newton’s career record for rushing scores at the position (76) in the most Allen way possible: a bruising/physical carry that only he is capable of.

I was encouraged by him getting Keon Coleman a touchdown. We will see if that has a lasting impact, but it can’t hurt. Sunday’s game saw 33 total points put on the board: would it surprise you if BOTH teams scored 33 in this spot?

That’s extreme, but you get the idea. Last week was an outlier, and you have nothing to worry about.

Justin Herbert | LAC (vs PHI)

Justin Herbert has three straight finishes outside of the top 15 at the position and is now dealing with off-hand surgery ahead of this Monday nighter.

Not great.

Since their Week 9 bye, the Eagles have allowed just one QB (Dak Prescott) to reach his season average, and even that came with a slanted game script, with the Cowboys falling behind by 21 early.

There’s a world in which we see Herbert lean into his athleticism and get us there as a result. We’ve seen him do it a few times this season (three games with 50+ rush yards), and with a variety of weapons for Philadelphia to keep tabs on, it’s possible.

I’m cautiously optimistic. The Bolts will have a better feel for what their QB can/can’t do than the opponent, and that has me thinking they have a scheme advantage.

That said, there’s more risk than normal with Herbert, and if you wanted to play a Sam Darnold or Bo Nix type over him, I wouldn’t blame you.

Kirk Cousins | ATL (vs SEA)

Kirk Cousins has three touchdowns on 108 attempts this season, and we saw everything we needed to during Atlanta’s first drive in New York last week.

First Drive

• Bijan Robinson, six-yard run
• Bijan Robinson, 11-yard run (first down)
• Bijan Robinson, four-yard run
• Deven Thompkins, five-yard run
• Tyler Allgeier, -1-yard run
• Punt

In a game in which they were favored, they had no interest in putting the game in the hands of their veteran QB, and I think that’s something that is here to stay.

Seattle ranks in the top quarter of the league in opponent drive distance, scoring percentage, and red zone defense. This is a near-impossible spot for most QBs, and most spots are a near-impossible spot for Cousins at this point in his career.

I’m not saying the Seahawks defense breaks the slate for a second consecutive week, but it’s certainly on the table.

Kyler Murray | ARI (vs LAR)

Kyler Murray hasn’t played since Week 5, and with the team not opening his window to return this week, he’ll miss at least one more contest.

With the 3-9 Cardinals eliminated from playoff contention and Murray’s $230.5 million deal extending through the 2028 season, it’s not hard to imagine him having played his last game this season.

The money alone gives him a great chance to regain his starting gig next season, but I’m not holding him in redraft formats any longer.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs PIT)

Lamar Jackson has thrown at least 23 passes without a touchdown toss in three straight games. That’s the first such instance in his remarkable career and the first such instance in the NFL this season. Things just haven’t looked right, and the reason behind it is pretty simple.

He’s not threatening defenses in the same way with his legs (yet to have a 20-yard run, and his 5.1 yards per carry are tracking to be his lowest since his rookie season), and that’s made making plays on third down an uphill battle.

In his nine starts this season, he’s completed just 52.6% of his third-down passes with one score and one pick. Last season, one that had him in the MVP conversation until the very end, he completed 62.2% of his passes in that spot, racking up 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

At 6-6, does Jackson feed into the desperation of the moment and do what comes naturally?

I hope so!

He ran nine times for just 22 yards in his last meeting with these Steelers, but that was in a spot where he was having elite success through the air (9.0 YPA with one-fifth of his completions resulting in a touchdown). At my core, I’m an optimist, and that’s the stance I’m taking here: back to basics for Jackson this week and a nice opportunity next weekend to make good on the Bengals matchup that he failed to come through last week.

Marcus Mariota | WAS (at MIN)

If Jayden Daniels (elbow) misses another game, we’ve seen Washington trust Marcus Mariota with volume, and that’s enough to put him on DFS radars as a punt play.

The efficiency concerns are real. He’s thrown a pick in consecutive games and averaged just 5.9 yards per pass last season, but 50 throws and 10 rush attempts have a way of supporting a fantasy asset.

Mariota has multiple TD passes in two of his past three games and has at least 20 rushing yards in every start he’s made this season. We could get a very chaotic day if this is the case, but I was encouraged by what we saw from Terry McLaurin in his return to action.

He’s not an asset for me in season-long formats, but if you want to sell me on him having top 10 mainslate value based on per-dollar production, I’d listen.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (at ARI)

Shake it off and move on.

Matthew Stafford threw an end zone interception early against the Panthers and followed it up with a Pick-6 on the next drive. Yes, that means he had as many picks in the first quarter on Sunday as he had in the first three months of 2025.

Yikes.

He would later add in a lost fumble for good measure.

Take a step back and think about what you’re complaining about. Back in August, we weren’t sure if Stafford was going to play because of the back injury. And now, one bad week after months of dominance (six top-8 finishes), and we are let down?

It’s a blip on the radar. He still got his two short-range TDs to Davante Adams and threw one-third of his passes to Puka Nacua. He’s as reliable a pocket-locked QB as we have in the game and a true MVP front-runner.

None of that has changed, and I expect his video game numbers to return this weekend against a Cardinals defense that has allowed a touchdown on 27.7% of drives over the past month, the sixth-highest rate.

Max Brosmer | MIN (vs WAS)

Growing up, they always tell you that there is someone out there who is bigger than you, faster than you, better than you.

We learned on Sunday in Seattle that the inverse of that statement is also true.

Vikings fans thought they had it bad with JJ McCarthy struggling to adapt to the pro game, and then they watched Max Brosmer for 60 minutes.

It was obviously a brutal spot to step into and that needs to be factored, but fans don’t always act with rationality as their guiding light. Brosmer had as many interceptions as Justin Jefferson had receiving yards, and one was about as bad a decision as you’ll see on the NFL stage.

The other three? He wasn’t pressured on; he just couldn’t read the play the right way at the right speed. This job was always going to be McCarthy’s (concussion) when he was cleared because of the draft capital invested in him, but he gained more in terms of job security over the past week than he has when he has taken the field.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs HOU)

Patrick Mahomes was passing touchdowns left and right while you passed the cranberry sauce, and while it wasn’t enough for the Chiefs, his fantasy managers were left fulfilled (261 passing yards with four touchdowns, 30 rushing yards).

It was great to see him lean into his “Big Three” pass catchers with 75% of his targets going to Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, or Travis Kelce. That trio accounted for three of his four scores, and while I like Hollywood Brown targets as much as the next guy, this is the path to Mahomes leading your fantasy team to the promised land.

The rushing numbers continue to elevate his floor, and as the passing production turns around (one score through the air in his three games before Thanksgiving), those chunk gains on the ground project as sustainable.

He’s got a 10+ yard run in six of his past eight, and that level of versatility makes him a lineup lock, even against the terrifying Texans.

Sam Darnold | SEA (at ATL)

We are 13 weeks into this season, and while Sam Darnold has played at a high level for the majority of it, we have more than enough data to say, with confidence, that the Seahawks can win at a high level without needing video game numbers from their QB.

Darnold has been a top 20 QB in just two of his past six games, offers next to nothing on the ground, and is averaging just 27 pass attempts per game. He needs to be ultra-efficient to return marginal value, and that’s not a profile I’m targeting.

He’s a fine play if you’re loaded elsewhere and need a reasonable floor, but Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and Trevor Lawrence are QBs down a bit in my ranks that I have penciled in with more upside potential this week.

Shedeur Sanders | CLE (vs TEN)

Shedeur Sanders is probably the best quarterback on this Cleveland roster, but that doesn’t mean we need to worry about him.

In his two starts, the Browns have trusted him with just 45 passes (27 completions), and without high-end athleticism, there’s no real path to fantasy production.

That said, he did miss Jerry Jeudy on the first drive last week, a bomb that could have been a 66-yard score, and the Titans allow the fifth most deep completions per game (3.3). Sanders himself doesn’t hold value, but he brings a vertical element to this offense that Dillon Gabriel didn’t and in this matchup, that introduces some significant upside.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs IND)

Trevor Lawrence has seen his passer rating increase in four straight games, and while the fantasy numbers aren’t piling up, his improved play gives me an increased level of confidence in this offense as a whole.

On the second drive last week against the Titans, we saw him rip off two chunk plays thanks to the type of high-end precision that we thought would be the norm for him at this point in his career.

The Tush Push is Philadelphia’s thing, but Jacksonville has gotten creative with playcalling in its own specific way (it helped with the converted two-point conversion last week), and it helps give Lawrence a look at my top 15 this week.

The Colts allow the sixth most red zone trips per game (3.8), and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this is the highest scoring game of the weekend. If that happens, you’re going to want DFS exposure (a Lawrence stack with Jonathan Taylor on the bring back in a positive game script sounds profitable to me).

These two teams also play during fantasy championship week: watch closely and put yourself in a position to succeed when all the chips are on the table.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at NYJ)

Tua Tagovailoa has just two finishes better than QB17 this season and is the rare option that I don’t trust in any game script.

He has more interceptions than touchdowns during this three-game win streak. In the three blowout losses that Miami has suffered this season, Tagovailoa has one touchdown against six interceptions on 86 attempts.

He’s been held without a touchdown toss in two straight, three of four, and four of six games. If Tagovailoa has a good game, it’s because he supported the values of Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane, not because he offered much in the way of value by himself.

Tyler Shough | NO (at TB)

Tyler Shough isn’t a star, but I’ve been pleasantly surprised with what I’ve seen from him this season. No, the counting numbers aren’t crazy, but this system/roster makes that close to impossible.

A completion percentage of 68% in three straight? A total of 40 rushing yards over his past two games?

That’s not nothing. The Saints are allowing him to learn by fire (47 opportunities, pass attempts plus rush attempts, per game in those two contests), and I think that’s earned him the opportunity to have a role next season.

Without high-end counting numbers, Shough needs touchdowns to move into the Superflex conversation. But with the Bucs allowing the second fewest red zone drives per game (2.4, only the Patriots are better, and they are on bye, so this is as tough in that regard as it gets this week), he’s a long shot to get there this weekend.

Tyrod Taylor | NYJ (vs MIA)

The yardage for Tyrod Taylor is almost never going to be there as a function of this offense.

We saw New York score 27 points last weekend against the Falcons, and Taylor ended up with 216 yards of offense when you combine passing and rushing.

I’m not taking anything away from what he did during Sunday’s win. But if that’s his environment’s ceiling (how often do you think the Jets score more than 27 points for the rest of this season?), there’s not really much of a case to be made for him as a fantasy asset in standard-sized, one-QB formats.

The 52-yard bomb to Adonai Mitchell was good to see, even with the defender falling to the ground while tracking it, and the 10-yard touchdown was an impressive read.

But my point remains. In a week where everything went right, he was 2.04 points better than QB11. The Dolphins own the fifth-best red zone defense, and it’s not hard to imagine both of these offenses operating with caution, something that has the potential to limit the possession count.

Don’t chase the QB6 finish from last week, I beg of you.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (vs WAS)

Aaron Jones suffered a shoulder injury in the third quarter last week, and he may sit out this week as the Vikings play out the string of this season, with a year left on his contract.

Even if he plays, what exactly are you chasing?

He has one game this season with double-digit rush attempts, and while the role in the passing game has elevated his floor to a tough (3+ catches in four straight games), all you have to do is ask a Justin Jefferson manager about how sideways counting on this passing game can go.

If active, I prefer his reception projection to Jordan Mason’s edge in close, but he’d still be ranked no better than a middling flex. Should he sit, we get a situation where the RB touches all go to one place, and if you roster both, this is the outcome you want.

Alvin Kamara | NO (at TB)

A low body injury resulted in Alvin Kamara missing his first game of the season on Sunda,y and while the timetable is TBD, reports noted that the veteran RB wasn’t expected to be placed on IR.

Is the glass half empty or half full?

This suggests his absence will be fewer than four games (three more), but it doesn’t exactly inspire optimism about his availability in the short term. He doesn’t have a finish better than RB14 this season and has finished the majority of his games outside of the top 25 at the position.

The answer to your lineup questions this time of year shouldn’t include Saints: you’re playing Chris Olave, or you’re grasping for straws. That sentiment won’t change unless Kamara finds the fountain of youth, recovers in a hurry, and proves both of those things to us over the next month.

Yeah, not betting on it.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (vs DEN)

Not all high-pedigree players are capable of putting an entire offense on their shoulders from the jump.

Personally, I haven’t adjusted my career expectation for Ashton Jeanty this season: he simply has no help, and I hope that we see that change in short order.

There’s simply no reason that a player like this doesn’t have a 15+ yard rush since September and doesn’t have a qw-yard touch in three of his past four. He has three straight games with negative yards per carry before contact, and that brings him to under half a yard before contact for the season (86.3% of his rushing yards come after being touched, league RB average: 70.3%).

Roster building malpractice.

The struggles in that regard forced the Raiders to explore creative ways to get him the rock, proving in the process that he can be one of these offensive focal points (6+ receptions in three straight after minimal usage in that role prior).

Jeanty is doing enough to start in all formats, but you drafted him for so much more. I’d recommend taking your lumps and not holding it against the future star.

Bam Knight | ARI (vs LAR)

We are nearing the return of Trey Benson (knee), and that’ll move everyone attached to this backfield down a spot on the depth chart.

I don’t expect this offense to give us multiple valuable backs every week, but we did gain valuable information last weekend.

Snap Splits, Week 13

• Third Down: Michael Carter leads Bam Knight 7-1
• Red Zone: Knight leads Carter 3-0
• First Quarter: Knight leads Carter 9-2

Half of Knight’s rushing yards in Tampa Bay last week came on the first drive, but the Cards identified a mismatch, targeted him on consecutive plays, and got him the first TD reception of his career.

Carter is clearly the preferred option in the pass game, while Knight is more of a traditional RB. I don’t think either is flexible if Benson is active, but moving forward, Knight is the handcuff I’d roster in Arizona and I feel good about that call, even with the lost fumble proving impactful in a three-point loss..

Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs SEA)

Early on, it looked like it was going to be one of THOSE days.

The Falcons gave Bijan Robinson a rare goal-line carry; he failed, and Tyler Allgeier finished the drive on the next snap.

All’s well that ends well, however. Robinson cashed in a five-yard opportunity to open up the second half, a score he set up with a 42-yard catch. He flirted with 1,900 yards from scrimmage last season and should hit 2,000 in 2025: Robinson was in the 1.01 discussion this August, and that’ll be the case entering 2026 as well.

Blake Corum | LAR (at ARI)

Blake Corum ran hard for a two-yard score last week, a touchdown he earned with a second effort.

That was the most valuable carry of the best day of his pro career (81 rush yards against the Panthers), but it was a third straight game with under 10 touches. Until Kyren Williams gives the Rams a reason to lengthen the leash of his backup, Los Angeles has shown no interest in doing so.

Week 13 Participation Data

• Corum: 33.3% snaps, 8 routes, 7 touches (2 red zone)
• Williams: 66.7% snaps, 16 routes, 13 touches (5 red zone)

In essence, Corum is Tyler Allgeier, but without the TD vulture portion of that role consistently.

He’s rosterable because of where his value would sit if something were to happen to Williams, not because he’s in the flex conversation in this backfield as it currently stands.

Brashard Smith | KC (vs HOU)

The idea of having a rookie who required draft capital to pick up in an Andy Reid offense with some question marks when it comes to running the ball was good.

Keep making bets like that in your drafts, and you’ll have success; it just didn’t work this time around.

With Isiah Pacheco back, a small role got even smaller. Brashard Smith doesn’t have a touchdown this season and didn’t touch the ball once on Thanksgiving. He appears to be two injuries away from a role that matters, and at this point in the season, there’s no need to hold out hope.

Kareem Hunt will hit free agency this summer, and we can have the Smith conversation when he moves up this depth chart as a result.

Breece Hall | NYJ (vs MIA)

Breece Hall turned 21 touches into 76 yards against the Falcons last week, and that’s nothing to write home about, but he benefited from a muffed punt that set the Jets up at the two-yard line and found the end zone for the fourth time this season.

He was lucky to have that happen. New York averaged 4.3 yards per play for the game, and if not gift-wrapped that TD, he finishes the week RB37, not RB17.

I’m not asking you to apologize for the fantasy points; you take them where you can get them, but this is a broken offense that needs some fortunate bounces to get you the points they need.

We’ve begun to see more versatility from Hall of late, including a remarkable sideline catch for 13 yards last week (he caught all 11 of his November targets), and that’s why he’s a lineup lock. He projects for 18-20 touches, and that can land him in starting lineups even without the boost of a touchdown.

The Dolphins allowed him to pick up 111 yards back in September and are the fourth-worst post-contact rush defense in the league. The end of the season might be clunky (Jacksonville next week and New England in Week 17 when leagues are being decided), but I think you have a low-end RB1 rostered this week.

Bucky Irving | TB (vs NO)

Todd Bowles was non-committal entering last week. He told us that Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) would get the first shot at a backfield that was going to lean into a “hot hand” approach.

That was a lie on multiple fronts.

Not only did Rachaad White get the first carry of the game, but Irving ran away with the backfield despite not really flashing a hot hand.

He finished the game against the vulnerable Cardinals’ defense with 61 yards on 17 carries. That’s below average, and if that qualifies as “hot,” then the expectations are awfully low for those around him.

Irving found the paint in the third quarter last week, making good for fantasy managers after an early TD got wiped off the board by a holding penalty that probably wasn’t needed.

All systems go.

The Saints have given up 15+ PPR points to a running back in four straight games, and I think that’s the floor for Irving this week as he naturally trends closer to full strength. He’s my RB8 for this week, and this looks like a player poised to reward you for your patience with his rehab process.

Chase Brown | CIN (at BUF)

Remember three months ago when you got irrationally excited about drafting Chase Brown?

How about two months ago, when you were questioning your life choices in relying on him to dictate your mental stability during the long NFL season?

It’s been a bumpy ride, but we are trending toward an inverse bell curve where the end-of-season production lives up to your expectations with a significant dip between the two.

Better late than never. Brown seems to be rounding into form at the right time, and with this offense now whole, you can count on the good times rolling.

Brown has three straight games averaging north of five yards per carry and has caught at least six passes in three of his past four. He’s not Christian McCaffrey, but he can have Christian McCaffrey-like weeks, and this spot certainly profiles as one of them.

Regardless of how you stack up the top of the board at the position, Brown is a great play this week. The conversation goal posts shift when talking DFS ownership levels, and I doubt I take an overweight position, but the upside is undeniable. Everything is trending toward the elite.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at MIN)

Chris Rodriguez is the running back to roster in Washington, but that’s more of a roster depth conversation than one that is going to impact your starting lineup in a meaningful way over the final month.

He did punch in a powerful eight-yard touchdown in the second quarter last week, and that was good to see. Still, at the moment of that score, he only had seven of 16 Commander rush attempts (Marcus Mariota had four, Jacory Corskey-Merritt had three, and Jeremy McNichols/Deebo Samuel one apiece).

For this to work, he’d have to own a Quinshon Judkins-like role, but nothing this team has shown us suggests that we are likely to get that in 2025. The Vikings are the third-best rush defense in terms of running back YPC before contact, making this even more of an uphill battle.

Rodriguez is the only Washington RB that I have any interest in rostering, but he’s outside of my top 25 at the position this week, and it never really crossed my mind to elevate him.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (at GB)

D’Andre Swift was great on Black Friday, and the evolution of Kyle Monangai is overlooking that.

Not only did he set a season-high in rushing yards (125) and score his first touchdown of the month, but he also gained yardage on every one of his 18 carries against an Eagles defense that is certainly closer to elite than average.

Even with Monangai running well, Swift did finish with a slight snap edge, and that is about what I think we can expect moving forward.

The rookie is the pounding back, which I have ranked a few spots higher because I’m allocating the inside-the-10 touches that way, but that doesn’t mean we pivot off of Swift. I still favor him to lead this backfield in touches and slot him ahead of Monangain in the target hierarchy.

Until proven otherwise, this is a run-centric offense that can support a pair of backs.

David Montgomery | DET (vs DAL)

The short touchdown on Thanksgiving against the Packers was great to see. Still, we were trending in a negative direction in terms of the David Montgomery evaluation before last week, and he’s realistically given us no reason to adjust.

Over the past three weeks, as Dan Campbell has gotten a hold of this offense, he’s been capped at eight carries and three targets. That’s not going to get it done most weeks, and considering that he doesn’t have a 15+ yard carry since Week 5, the single-play ceiling just isn’t there.

If you’re absolutely pressed, the Amon-Ra St. Brown absence could carve out enough of a role to talk yourself into. I’m not saying you’re crazy for that train of thought, and it’s factored into my low-end ranking of Montgomery in this spot, but I’m not counting on him being in the fantasy lineup conversation when this team is back at full strength.

It’s the Jahmyr Gibbs show, and Campbell seems plenty comfortable with his fate being decided in that manner.

Can you blame him?

De’Von Achane | MIA (at NYJ)

This De’Von Achane season is at risk of not getting the notoriety that it deserves because of what some of the elites at the position are doing, but I’d encourage you not to do so.

Miami’s star 99 rushing yards OR 5+ targets in 11 straight games. He’s ripped off a 20+ yard run in four straight and in six of his past seven. This offense threatens defenses in very few ways, and yet, Achane always seems to find himself in a favorable spot.

Last week could have been even better had Tua Tagovailoa not misfired on a perfectly schemed up red zone target that had touchdown written all over it if delivered as designed.

The ‘Fins have a good chance to win this game and, not surprisingly, five of Achane’s seven best fantasy performances this season have come in victories. I suppose you could complain about Jaylen Wright getting the second carry of the game, but Achane finished that drive with a 29-yard score and doesn’t seem to be in any real danger of losing work (22+ touches in three straight games).

I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: reaching on Achane in 2026 is going to be near impossible.

Derrick Henry | BAL (vs PIT)

If you started Derrick Henry on Thursday night, you were fine with the final results (104 total yards and a touchdown), but again, this Baltimore offense just doesn’t look right.

Henry had five carries in both halves, even after finishing their first drive with a 28-yard score. The Ravens hardly had the ball (21:14 time of possession), and with Lamar Jackson struggling to play up to expectations, defenses aren’t being threatened, and drives aren’t being extended.

He got home for you because of the one chunk gain on the ground and an outlier 44-yard reception. Outside of that, it was a blah week in a season full of them.

Yes, “blah” is the technical term.

Henry is up to 10 rushing scores and is still picking up 4.7 yards per carry. The total numbers aren’t bad, but there is no confusion this year for what we had expected. Until this offense finds some sort of groove, I can’t lock him into my top 10 at the position.

The floor is reasonable thanks to his role on the goal line, but the upside isn’t even remotely close to what we associate with this name. You’re playing him for the role and hoping beyond recent logic that this offense as a whole can rediscover its form of years past.

Devin Neal | NO (at TB)

I’m not sure what you expected last week, but the Devin Neal performance was roughly in line with projections. He assumed the lead role (17 touches, though I wasn’t thrilled with seeing Mason Tipton handle the first carry against the Dolphins), showed some versatility, and finished with 9.9 PPR points.

He was able to fall forward at a high rate (92.9% gain rate), but offered very little in the way of explosive play potential. Evan Hull got five carries, and we’ve seen the Saints show comfort in calling designed runs for Tyler Shough, so his six rush attempts shouldn’t be viewed as an outlier.

What New Orleans didn’t do was lean into the Taysom Hill packages (one carry), which has me thinking there is more room for Neal’s value to decline than to improve.

This is a brutal matchup for any traditional run game. The Bucs rank third in success rate against running backs this season, and you don’t have to go far back to see an ultra-impressive performance (James Cook turned 16 carries into just 48 yards against them).

The Saints lack offensive options, and that leaves the door open for Neal, presuming he’s the lead back again, to catch a handful of passes and slip into the back-end of flex consideration. Still, I think you’re swallowing an awful lot of risk for a limited reward.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (vs TEN)

Dylan Sampson was featured in all sorts of coverage this time last week after being responsible for Shedeur Sanders’ first career touchdown pass, a 66-yard play in which he did all the heavy lifting.

The speed is no secret, but neither is this team’s opinion of Jerome Ford. Quinshon Judkins is pretty clearly the back Cleveland wants to feature, and this offense isn’t built to lend value to multiple backs.

That said, because Ford out-snapped Sampson 13-11, we have no clarity as to who would be the handcuff should an injury occur. Judkins is realistically the only Brown that needs to be rostered in most situations.

Emanuel Wilson | GB (vs CHI)

The Packers have been a one-back system for a while now, and that didn’t change in Week 12’s win over the Vikings when Emauel Wilson took over for the injured Josh Jacobs (30 touches for 125 yards and two touchdowns).

So there should have been no surprise when they fully embraced Jacobs in his return to action, relegating Wilson to a role of no interest to us (18.3% snap share). Heck, Chris Brooks was on the field more and led the position in targets last week.

Wilson remains the proper Jacobs handcuff, and given their stubborn commitment to this offensive scheme, he’s worthy of a roster spot over a WR7 type that you’re never realistically playing.

But make no mistake about it: there is no standalone value to chase here (Bo Melton outrushed him in Week 13).

Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs HOU)

Isiah Pacheco returned last week to give this backfield an added dimension.

The dimension?

An added spectator.

In the loss to the Cowboys, Pacheco finished with a 13% carry share. He matched Kareem Hunt with two targets, but with Patrick Mahomes funneling 75% of his looks to his big three targets (Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce), banking on much usage in the passing game for any member of this backfield is dangerous.

Hunt has been the goal-line back for this entire season, even when Pacheco was trending toward taking the lead role, and that’s crippling any hopes of squeezing flex value out of this distressed asset.

Pacheco is a hard-nosed runner and capable of earning more work, but we need to see this offense show confidence in him, and we are running low on time. On Thursday, 10 of his 16 snaps played were routes run, and that’s not how he earns his way into fantasy lineups for the stretch run.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (at LV)

A foot injury has landed J.K. Dobbins on IR and will likely end his fantasy season.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for managers, as he’s been a stable source of work all season, but you failed to build your roster properly if you were banking on a full season from the oft-injured running back.

Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has played 47 career games (of a possible 101 regular-season games when this season ends). Use this as a reminder that you can NEVER have too much depth at the position, especially as the season nears its conclusion. This is the RJ Harvey show moving forward, and if you want to take a flier, Jaleel McLaughlin is worth a look for those struggling to build out their RB room.

Sean Payton is likely to keep multiple backs in the rotation, and while I think you’re drawing thin with McLaughlin, he figures to be on the field some and now carries a reasonable amount of contingent value.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (at MIN)

This was a fun story this summer, and he held the starting gig for a while, but the Jacory Croskey-Merritt days have come to an end in Washington, and he no longer needs to be rostered.

If I had to guess, I don’t think any running back from this roster makes a big impact in the fantasy postseason. If one back

Week 13 Participation Data

• Jeremy McNichols: 39 snaps, 26 routes, 1 red zone touch
• Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 37 snaps, 19 routes, 3 red zone touches
• Croskey-Merritt: 12 snaps, 6 routes, 0 red zone touches

Week 5 was the last time that JCM had a touch gaining more than 12 yards, and that was also the last time he scored. He just doesn’t have a single skill that plays well, and that means there would have to be multiple injuries ahead of him for me to want to roster him, let alone start him.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs DAL)

Last week was underwhelming in terms of production (86 yards without a touchdown on 23 touches) for Jahmyr Gibbs, but you take the volume and move on. You were never expecting 219 yards on 15 carries from Week 12 to sustain, and this level of inefficiency won’t either.

Gibbs is one of the three most explosive running backs in the sport, and Dan Campbell is clearly bought in on how this offense functions with #0 as the head of the snake. The Packers have proven to be a tough matchup on the ground for him (29 carries for 87 yards across the two meetings), but Micah Parsons’ current team is a different matchup than his former.

It’s a short list of running backs that can lead the position in scoring the rest of the way, and Gibbs is certainly on it.

James Cook | BUF (vs CIN)

James Cook doesn’t have a role that allows him to threaten the top tier at the position, but if he did, I think he’d have a real chance at putting up similar numbers to the elite.

He’s doing just fine in this role that he has, and that has him locked in RB1 status until otherwise noted.

He’s caught at least three passes in four straight games, a great sign after he went four games with one total reception. We know he’s an elite runner of the football (six games with over 110 rushing yards, two more than any other back in the sport), and that should play just fine against the NFL’s third-worst run defense in terms of success rate (only the Giants and Cowboys have been worse).

Everyone is talking about how the Bills Ran DUO, but how about how they ran Zone.

To me the backside blocks from TEs and WRs and the vision from James Cook is the best in the league!

Teach Tape Cut Back on inside zone! pic.twitter.com/CqSaZv2eyw

— The Call Sheet (@thecallsheetfb) December 3, 2025

This game has two of my top-5 running backs for Week 14 in it, and I prefer Cook to Chase Brown if you’re splitting DFS hairs (it’s also to run a correlated stack in that direction than the other).

Javonte Williams | DAL (at DET)

The defense is getting attention for its play (and health) since the bye, and it’s warranted. With their improvement has come team success (three straight wins) and thus positive game scripts that have allowed Javonte Williams to get his hands on the ball 20 times in each of those contests.

He was held without a rush TD for a fourth straight game, but he offset that with his second touchdown reception of the season and has quietly seen three targets in consecutive games (two such games in his previous six).

Williams’ posting his ninth top-20 finish of the season feels inevitable. While he doesn’t profile as the type of back that can single-handedly take over a week, he’s a good bet to finish closer to RB10 than RB20 in a spot like this where part of the game plan will be keeping the Lions’ offense off the field.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (at BAL)

Jaylen Warren ran for a TD in consecutive games, helping mask stat lines that were otherwise gross (3.7 yards per carry with a 5-% catch rate), and while that’s great, the floor feels at risk of falling out.

We haven’t seen a 15+ yard run from Warren in four of his past five games, and he has been worked out of the passing role that we entered the season assuming was safe.

He had 142 receiving yards through three weeks to open this season and has just 86 since (14 over his past three games). We need that rectified quickly so he can retain RB2 status.

The Ravens defense is trending up, and in Warren’s last game against them, 66.2% of his PPR points came through the passing game. I’m nervous, but he does slide just inside of my top 20 at the position and is the only Steeler that I’m starting in Week 14.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at MIN)

Jeremy McNichols is more viewed as the pass-catching back in this boring Washington offense, so the fact that he’s been held under five receiving yards in three of his past four games tells you all you need to know about his status.

There really isn’t a double-digit touch upside in this offense for him, and I’m not sure that changes with who is under center. This is a committee that, at large, I’m not touching, and if I am forced to look at Washington, it’s not by way of McNichols.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (at JAX)

Two straight weeks without a touchdown feels like a slump for Jonathan Taylor, but the second-longest reception of his season last week (33 yards on a play-action rollout) helped him to clear 100 scrimmage yards and save you from a real stinker against the Texans.

Taylor has multiple receptions in every game this season and has a 19+ yard gain through the air in four of his past six. He’s already five receptions away from matching a career high in receptions, and that adds fire to a profile that is that of a fantasy MVP based solely on the rushing numbers.

But wait. There is at least one breadcrumb that I want to highlight as defenses begin to dare Daniel Jones to beat them.

Over the past two weeks, very tough matchups in Kansas City and against Houston, he’s picked up 2.08 yards per carry after first contact (first 11 weeks: 4.47). The Jags happen to be the fifth-best run defense at preventing yardage before contact, so if this flaw is something to worry about, we could see a third straight inefficient day on the ground.

Not making a move or downgrading him; simply sharing the information as I come across it.

Jordan Mason | MIN (vs WAS)

Jordan Mason has averaged 5.2 touches per game over the past month and isn’t a player that is on our flex radar should Aaron Jones play.

That much, I think, we can agree on and need no further analysis.

But Jones is dealing with a shoulder injury, and this season has gotten away from the Vikes. I’m not sure their winning window starts next season, but the veteran RB does have another year left on his deal, so what motivation do they have to push him?

If Mason sits atop this depth chart come the weekend, I’m in.

He has a 15+ yard run in three straight games despite the limited role, and he’s proven to have staying power in fantasy land when extended. The Washington run defense hasn’t been as stout as it was on Sunday night (RJ Harvey: 2.7 YPC) for all seasons, and that has me thinking that Mason can blend efficiency and volume nicely if given the full workload.

At the very least, we could get bailed out with a touchdown should this Minnesota offense connect the dots for a drive or two. The Commanders are the eighth-worst red zone defense (60.9% TD rate), and we saw Mason pull a dud game out of the fire back in Week 7 when filling in for Jones with a touchdown (15 carries for 57 yards against the Eagles).

Jones would be a low-end flex if active. If he sits, Mason would soar past that and make a push for my top 15 at the position in Week 14.

Josh Jacobs | GB (vs CHI)

We saw Emanuel Wilson fill the Josh Jacobs role admirably in Week 12. Still, the Packers showed no interest in making this a committee situation with their RB1 recovered from the leg injury.

Green Bay opened Thanksgiving with a heavy serving of Jacobs (four carries on their first six plays), and he finished with 83 yards on 17 carries (Wilson had four for 14). The win over the Lions was the eighth time this season that he’s cleared 15 carries, and his 29-yard run was his longest of the season.

All systems go. It appears that your RB1 is poised to carry a top 10 role into the fantasy postseason, and with them in the thick of the NFC playoff arms race, you can count on plus-production moving forward.

Jacobs scored in both Bear games last season while picking up five yards per carry.

Kareem Hunt | KC (vs HOU)

Kareem Hunt had 30 carries in Week 12, and while the volume wasn’t the same in the loss to Dallas on Thursday, the return of Isiah Pacheco didn’t really dent his rest-of-season outlook.

As per usual, Hunt handled all three of the red zone running back touches for KC, and he held a 40-16 snap edge over their RB2. I suppose it’s possible that Pacheco, the harder runner for my money, works into a role that truly subtracts from Hunt’s bottom line, but I’m not projecting it until we get proof of concept.

This is a brutal matchup, and with some touch variance at least in the conversation, I can’t get Hunt inside of my top 20 at the position. That said, with touchdown equity and a clear path to 15 touches, I find it unlikely that you have three better options.

Keaton Mitchell | BAL (vs PIT)

I like Keaton Mitchell as much as the next guy. The 23-year-old clearly has an explosive profile (6.5 yards per touch this season), and it was good to see him get on the board with his first touchdown of the season last week against Cincinnati.

But there’s no reason to go this direction as you fill out your roster for the stretch run.

The pride of East Carolina hasn’t cleared eight touches in a game this season, and given that Derrick Henry typically gets stronger this time of year, it’s near impossible to pencil in Mitchell for the type of role growth it would take to put him anywhere near the flex conversation.

Holding injury replacements this time of year is a strong strategy, but with Henry not having missed a game since 2022 and projecting for such a high percentage of the usage as Baltimore tries to claw into the playoffs, this isn’t the spot to target.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (at BAL)

In a different offense, the Kenneth Gainwell role would have my interest, but I enter most weeks assuming that it’ll be an absolute slog to get the Steelers to 20 points, and that’s not the environment for a secondary RB.

He was on the field for 41.9% of their offensive snaps against the Bills last week and split the red zone work with Jaylen Warren. Gainwell is a strong handcuff and has a role in this offense, but not one that lands him on our radar in anything but a great matchup.

The opposing RB1 has failed to reach his season average in three of the past five Ravens games, making this a very tough sell to trust Gainwell in the RB2 role.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at ATL)

Kenneth Walker’s playing time continues to move in a decent direction, but we all know the issue here.

The most explosive Seattle RB has just one score since Week 3, and as long as Zach Charbonnet is active, there is no obvious way for Walker to improve upon that weakness.

He’s still my favorite RB on this roster, even without the scoring equity. Walker has a 20+ yard touch in four straight games and has exactly three receptions in three consecutive contests. We saw the Falcons hold Breece Hall to no 10+ yard rushes last week, but over the season as a whole, they rank fourth-lowest in success rate against the position.

Walker is my RB18 this week, a tier he has lived in for the past two months and will likely remain in for the remainder of the season.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (vs PHI)

Kimani Vidal has shown well for himself and figures to remain involved if Omarion Hampton returns as expected, but he’d fall from an RB2 to a low-end flex should that situation come to pass.

He piled up 126 yards on the ground against the Raiders last week and has at least 95 rushing yards in every game this season in which he’s been handed the ball more than 12 times. Hampton is the higher pedigree player and is viewed as the future, but a 60/40 type of committee is a logical expectation as he works back into game shape.

The Eagles had their noses bloodied on Black Friday by the Bears (Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift ran for 255 yards and two scores on 40 totes), but they showed well prior and have had extended rest to prepare for this game. They are the fourth-best red-zone defense in the league, drastically reducing the TD equity for all involved.

RELATED: Fantasy Football Streamers Week 14: Top Options Include Tyrod Taylor, Brenton Strange, and Darren Waller

That’s assuming that Justin Herbert plays. If he sits, this is an offense that, for our purposes, is drawing close to death with Trey Lance under center.

Kyle Monangai | CHI (at GB)

The Bears have a high-pedigree quarterback and a big-name playcaller, but this is a traditional offense that runs the ball at a high level.

Ben Johnson shipped D’Andre Swift out of Detroit when he was there, so I think we can say with a level of certainty that he doesn’t view him as a game-changer. We don’t know that Kyle Monangai is, but we don’t have any evidence that Johnson believes it’s not true of him, and that’s enough.

The rookie has run for a score in four straight, and it’s not an accident as he leads Swift 13-5 in red zone snaps over the past two weeks. He impressed at the beginning of November with a monster showing sans Swift (29 touches for 198 yards against the Bengals) and is now thriving alongside him.

Is it only a matter of time until he takes the keys to this backfield?

It certainly seems that way.

I’m not projecting that to be the case this weekend; it’s a little tough to relegate the starter after an 18-125-1 performance against one of the five best defenses in the sport, but Monangai’s role certainly seems more likely to expand than retract.

Give me the scoring equity of the rookie when stacking up the backs in Chicago this week. It’s a tough matchup, and if Green Bay can establish its own run game, this could be a low-possession game that leaves us all wanting more. I’m OK with starting both parts of this backfield given this offense’s focus.

Kyren Williams | LAR (at ARI)

Kyren Williams was banged up in the second quarter last week, and that paved the way for a Blaker Corum score, but he did return and got a score of his own after Puka Nacua made one of the best catches you’ll see.

First Half Usage Splits at Panthers

• Kyren Williams: 17 snaps, 7 touches (3 in the red zone)
• Corum: 15 snaps, 5 touches (2 in the red zone)

That split wasn’t all the result of the injury. I don’t think Sean McVay is looking for a committee, but he is a forward-thinking coach, and taking some of the wear-and-tear off of his RB1 is a logical desire (four straight games with under 15 carries)

Without consistent involvement in the passing game (eight catches in the two months following his eight-catch game against the 49ers), Williams relies more on touchdowns than I think most want to admit.

In the past, that hasn’t been an issue, but the presence of Davante Adams certainly introduces week-to-week risk in this Williams profile. We can worry about that over the next two weeks (Lions and Seahawks) more than we can about this zone (Cardinals: fifth-worst rush defense after contact).

We saw Williams used like a bellcow in the second half last week, despite the success of Corum (17-2 snap edge with all of the routes and red zone touches for the position), and that has me ranking him as a low-end RB1 in this plus-matchup.

Nick Chubb | HOU (at KC)

Woody Marks was dinged up early and returned, but that opened the door last week for Nick Chubb to hold a little more value than we anticipated, an opportunity he cashed in on with a four-yard score in the second quarter.

I don’t think it matters.

The Texans have made it clear they want the rookie to lead their backfield in a significant way, which leaves Chubb without a role that matters for us. This is a low-volume player who isn’t used in the passing game and is only really good at getting what is blocked at this point in his career … and this offensive line isn’t great at moving bodies.

Chubb has been great to fantasy managers in the past, but in 2025, he doesn’t need to be rostered.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (at NYJ)

I think Ollie Gordon is going to have a greater role, but that’s more of a 2026 discussion. The rookie does run hard, but with no real equity in the pass game and no more than three rush attempts in three of his past four games, there just isn’t a reason to hold out hope for the stretch run this season.

Jaylen Wright got work on the first drive, an annoyance to De’Von Achane managers and a clear sign that even if the starter were to go down, this would be more of a muddled mess than a clear fantasy starter.

You can find more upside elsewhere. Be it in skill set (a deep threat receiver) or a running back that is one injury away from a clear role, that would have a chance at elevating him into the top 30 of the weekly ranks.

Omarion Hampton | LAC (vs PHI)

The hope at this point is that Omarion Hampton (ankle) returns from IR this week, but I typed that exact sentence last week, and by Friday, he was wearing a non-contact jersey.

Justin Herbert threw a red-zone interception last week against the Raiders after a few failed goal-line rush attempts, a spot where Hampton would have been helpful.

The rookie had at least a dozen carries, AND five receptions in each of the last three games he’s played, a level of versatility that tempts me to put him in the flex ranks the second he is activated, even if the role could be limited.

Kimani Vidal has been good enough in Hampton’s stead, but this franchise wants more than that. Herbert’s salary jumped from a base of $6 million last season to $15 million this season and will continue to rise until hitting $47 million in 2028. Winning with a franchise quarterback on a reasonably affordable deal is what every team aims to do.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (vs TEN)

Usually, it takes time to get used to the NFL game.

Don’t get me wrong, Quinshon Judkins isn’t skirting that, but the rookie runs hard and grinds out yardage like he’s been doing it for years. He’s been handed the ball at least 16 times in five straight healthy games, and with this game expected to be as competitive as any moving forward, we can safely pencil in plenty of work on the ground.

What I can’t figure out is how the Browns feel about Judkins in the pass game. He caught all three targets last week against San Francisco after consecutive zero-catch performances. We know the reception ceiling isn’t all that high, but if we are nitpicking in an offense that struggles to score, access to those “free” points is huge.

Judkins cleared 100 yards and helped his fantasy day around the edges (three catches and a two-point conversion). I think we’ll see more of the same in this spot, which has him ranked as a very strong RB2 this weekend.

Rachaad White | TB (vs NO)

Rachaad White faceplanted in Bucky Irving’s return to action (five touches for 29 yards). While he was the victim of an OPI flag costing him a touchdown, I think you’re largely chasing a ghost if you want him to return flex-worthy value when this backfield is whole.

Tampa Bay Running Back Snaps By Quarter (1-2-3-4)

• White: 7 – 8 – 2 – 4
• Irving: 5 – 11 – 7 – 8
• Sean Tucker: 0 – 2 – 2 – 4

The ramp-up period for Irving spanned the course of the game, not just a handful of contests, which is why I don’t have either of Tampa Bay’s secondary running backs close to flex territory this week.

Even if the Bucs were to jump out to a big lead, that game script works more in favor of Tucker than it does White. You’re holding a luxury stash: the minute your roster is needy for immediate production, I’m not hesitating to cut ties here and chase the hot pickup of the week with the playoffs so close.

Ray Davis | BUF (vs CIN)

I think Ray Davis runs hard.

I like what he brings to the table (nine carries for 62 yards against the Steelers), and his 220-pound frame only gets more difficult to drag down as the weather cools.

That said, James Cook isn’t giving him a chance to carve out a flex-worthy niche. That’s not going to change any time soon, and that makes Davis’ roster depth more than someone who has a real chance at hitting your lineup.

There are only a handful of backups in the league who would walk into an RB2 ranking if elevated up the depth chart, and Davis is one of them.

RJ Harvey | DEN (at LV)

Sean Payton clearly wants RJ Harvey to be confident leading this backfield, thus sticking with him as he acclimates to this new role. With 65 yards on 24 carries since the JK Dobbins injury, Harvey hasn’t exactly been a difference maker, but this is a rookie taking on increased responsibilities, and the Broncos can be patient given their sparkling record.

The volume feels safe, and the versatility is a plus-asset for Denver and fantasy managers alike (31 catches on 36 targets this season). The Raiders have given up productive days to young RBs in consecutive weeks entering this matchup (16.7 to Quinshon Judkins in Week 12 and 20.7 to Kimani Vidal over the weekend), and this is a critical spot for how this offense functions moving forward.

If he can explode, this unit becomes a balanced one that doesn’t have to overload Bo Nix with responsibilities (Packers-Jags-Chiefs-Chargers to round out the regular season). This is obviously the goal, and I think there’s a good chance that Payton gives Harvey every chance to prove himself as that sort of difference maker for what they hope is a deep playoff run.

Maybe I’m sipping the Kool-Aid a little too much, but Harvey is my top-ranked rookie RB for Week 14.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (at LAC)

The Eagles missed a chance to send a message on Black Friday against the Bears, and they are running out of time to rediscover the high-end form it’ll take to repeat.

It goes without saying that Saquon Barkley is a huge part of that. He dropped a screen pass late last week (inconsequential to the result of the game, but every opportunity matters in our world) and was held without an 18+ yard run for the 11th time in 12 games.

You’re aware of the struggles. You’re aware that he has just two rushing TDs since opening the season with one in each of the first two games. You’re aware that he has six games with single-digit receiving yards and that this offense is simply average at best.

The Rams’ defense is stout and certainly not a get-right spot. That said, an extended week for this team as a whole can’t be a bad thing, and Barkley averaged 2.0 yards per carry before first contact last week, the second-best mark of his season.

I’ve docked him in my Week 14 rankings, but that’s a short-term punishment. There were some running lanes last week, and if that’s what we see again this week, I think Barkley may be a swing piece in fantasy postseasons.

• Week 15 vs. Raiders
• Week 16 at Commanders
• Week 17 at Bills

Sean Tucker | TB (vs NO)

Sean Tucker’s run as a fantasy asset was impressive, but it didn’t last very long. Bucky Irving returned last weekend against the Cardinals and played the majority of their offensive snaps, a rate that figures only to rise as the postseason nears.

I like Tucker as the Thunder role if Irving were to suffer some setback, and that makes him a better stash than a random WR7 who might see two targets in a given week, but if you play in a league with shallow benches, cutting Tucker might be a call you have to make.

Tony Pollard | TEN (at CLE)

There was a glimmer of hope if you were paying awfully close attention to Titans/Jags last week.

If you had better things to do on your Sunday, I get it.

Tony Pollard had runs of 10, 11, and 15 yards to open the game. He gave this offense some nice balance, and if you’re trying to squeeze value out of every roster spot, the hot start was good to see as you try to build out a deep team for your playoff run.

If you blinked, you missed it.

Pollard carried seven times for 24 yards the rest of the way as the game script worked away from his role. Tyjae Spears finished with -1 rushing yard, but his fluidity in the passing game (team-high six receptions) left Pollard on the pine and stopped an optimistic start before it had a real chance to gain momentum.

The Browns are built like the Titans in that they don’t have enough offensive talent to script enforce on anyone, and that’s why I prefer Pollard to Spears this week in my AFC South-only leagues.

Outside of that, we aren’t talking about a backfield that you want to rely on.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs IND)

In the first week coming out of their bye, Travis Etienne had 27 touches in an overtime win against the Raiders. It was great, and we thought we had a chance to get top-12 production the rest of the way.

However, in the following weeks, his usage is on the decline, and Bhasyul Tuten is picking up valuable work in scoring position.

• Week 11 vs. Chargers: 21 opportunities (carries + targets)
• Week 12 at Cardinals: 19 opportunities
• Week 13 at Titans: 13 opportunities

Those are all victories. Jacksonville is doing more in the record column with less from their RB1, and that’s not the type of trend I like to see this time of year.

The Colts are coming off a loss to the Texans, but it wasn’t because their run defense struggled (108 yards on 34 carries). It’s still Etienne over Bhayshul Tuten for me. Still, the rookie is making this something of a Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet situation, and I’m not confident that this Jags offense is built to sustain a committee like that.

Trey Benson | ARI (vs LAR)

Trey Benson hasn’t played since September, and while I’m reasonably confident that this is his backfield to own when he returns, the fact that they’ve been awfully cautious with working the 23-year-old back into action has me thinking that we are looking at a one-week buffer between when Arizona activates their RB1 and when I’m comfortable starting him.

Especially if that week is this week.

The Rams gave up 164 yards on the ground last week to the Panthers, but this rush defense has been stout for three months (Week 12 against the Bucs: 132 yards and zero touchdowns allowed on 29 attempts as a recent example), and that’s what I prefer to trust over a singular date point.

If Benson returns this week, I think you’re watching from a distance if at all possible.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (at CLE)

Tyjae Spears has been pigeon-holed into a pass-catching role (more catches than carries in back-to-back-to-back games) in an offense that struggles as much as any to move the ball through the air.

Not ideal.

Tennessee lacks a reliable pass catcher, and that gives Spears a clear path to a handful of targets, but is that enough?

It wasn’t last week (six catches and 24 yards from scrimmage without much hope at a touchdown), and that projects to be the case more often than not. This is a fantasy wasteland: throw your darts on better offenses, even if the player in question requires an injury to become relevant (I’d rather bet on an injury than the Titans stumbling their way into scoring 25+ points).

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs SEA)

Tyler Allgeier punched in his eighth rushing touchdown of the season last weekend against the Jets, a score that came after Bijan Robinson first got the doorstep attempt.

Don’t worry, Robinson got there eventually, but this has been some bizzaro version of Detroit’s offense over the past two seasons: Allgeier is the scoring threat of 2024 David Montgomery, but has a role, in terms of volume, similar to that of 2025 Montgomery.

I’d love to give you some groundbacking analysis, but there’s nothing new here: Allgeier is more annoying to Robinson managers than he is productive in his own right. This is a brutal matchup to draw in a week where you could be a little shorthanded, and that’s why Allgeier doesn’t sit inside my top 25 at the position.

The Falcons have the Bucs, Cardinals, and Rams left on the fantasy schedule, spots that I’m not likely to have Allgeier ranked as a viable flex as long as Robinson is active. If their RB1 were to go down, however, we’d be looking at a top 15 option, and that’s why he’s worthy of rostering over a sixth receiver type that has no realistic path to a role that projects well.

Woody Marks | HOU (at KC)

Any player evaluation is three-pronged: role, talent, and situation.

Running backs that check at least two of those boxes have a way of finding their way into our lineup.

I’m not sold on the situation in terms of run blocking or respect given to the passing game being optimal. That leaves role and talent.

The role is there and unquestioned at this point. Entering Week 14, only four running backs have 16+ carries and a reception in each of their past three games: Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, Javonte Williams, and Marks.

That’s a list that Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson aren’t on, but Marks is. I say that not to sell you on Marks, but to sell you on the role of Marks. It’s locked in and something we can count on (the Nick Chubb touchdown last week came as Marks was working his way back from an early trip to the locker room due to a foot injury).

So now the million-dollar question: is Marks “good”?

The very small sample that we have puts him on the wrong side of average. But we are talking about a fourth-round pick who has 152 touches in his career, making any drastic claims hard to make.

That leaves us at 1-1-1 in my three boxes. He has the role, not the situation, and the talent discussion is in the eye of the beholder. For me, that makes him a low-end RB2 with the ability to move up 5-7 spots in the rankings when the matchup dictates.

We could see that in the coming weeks (home games against the Cardinals and Raiders await), but I’m not sold we do on Sunday. The Chiefs are the ninth-best defense after contact, ranking fifth in average time of possession, giving them the ability to hold onto the ball. Marks can do a lot of things, but scoring fantasy points when Houston is playing defense isn’t one of them.

He’s my RB23 this week, and I expect to be considerably higher in the coming weeks as the matchups lighten.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at ATL)

Kenneth Walker continues to out-snap Zach Charbonnet, but unless you play in a PPS league (point per snap), you’re left wanting more. This season, just 15% of Walker’s touches have come in the red zone, a number that is dwarfed by Charbonnet’s 25.4%.

In theory, that should make Charbonnet a viable play as the recipient of valuable work in a potent offense, but he’s yet to clear 15 carries in a game and has 10 targets for the season.

If you’re flexing Charbonnet, you’re chasing a single carry that accounts for the majority of your points: there’s very little volume or splash play upside in a role that is trending away from him.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (at LAC)

Is this what we wanted?

The Eagles have dropped consecutive games, but at least A.J. Brown is getting fed (18 catches on 22 targets for 242 and three scores).

This feels like the house burning “everything is fine” meme. I love that he’s seen double-digit targets in three straight and that the efficiency has recovered from the brutal start to the season. The hope is that we see some more end zone looks (four this season after seeing 12 a season ago), but everything else looks like the resume you bought into this summer.

2024

• 93.8 air yards per game
• 86.5% snap share
• Seven touchdowns in 13 games

2025

• 92.2 air yards per game
• 91.7% snap share
• Six touchdowns in 11 games

It’s been a weird season full of drama and social media posts, but for our purposes, you’re right about where you expected to be, even if the path was a little different.

Alec Pierce | IND (at JAX)

Alec Pierce has a skill set that is easy to label as “shaky” or “inconsistent”, but if he pays off the risk with reward each week, don’t we have to make an exception?

He’s scored in two of his past three games after being held scoreless up to that point and has a 19+ yard reception in every game he’s played (20.9 yards per catch).

I will grant you that the volume can be hit-and-miss, but given the success rate on these splash plays, all that tells me is that Daniel Jones is only throwing his way when the coverage scheme gives him a real chance to win in a big way.

The downside argument that I’d most listen to is the DPI one. We saw it on Sunday when a 32-yard penalty set up a Tyler Warren touchdown, and that concern is real. Those deep shots don’t need to be completed for Indy to benefit, but that’s a risk that I’m willing primarily to take on for access to this ceiling.

I still have Michael Pittman ranked above him based on mean projections, but would I play Pierce in this spot over struggling big-play threats like Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, and Darnell Mooney?

I would, and I wouldn’t consider it close.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs DAL)

An MRI on Friday revealed a low ankle sprain for Amon-Ra St. Brown, an injury that will keep the star receiver sidelined for this week at a minimum, but is not believed to be a long-term issue.

The standout WR has four top 7 finishes at the position this season and continues to return like a fantasy first rounder (nine touchdowns this season). This is obviously a big blow for fantasy managers, but with the Lions in a spot where they need to be aggressive, it stands to reason to think that you’ll have St. Brown back as soon as remotely possible.

Dan Campbell is a players coach and that has me leaning toward St. Brown being used in his usual way the moment he is cleared: you’re without him this week, but hopefully this is a bandaid situation more than one that will ruin your postseason.

• Week 15 at Rams
• Week 16 vs. Steelers
• Week 17 at Vikings
• Week 18 at Bears

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs IND)

The Jags blew out the Titans on Sunday in Brian Thomas’ return from the ankle injury (three missed games) and made sure he was ready to roll with the first target of the day.

I assume they liked what they saw because BTJ played a full complement of snaps, but he caught just one ball after that initial look and looked like the third most dangerous member of this passing attack.

I like Trevor Lawrence as much as anyone and even I’m not banking on him supporting three pass catchers, so things are going to have to improve in short order for me to feel good about locking Thomas into playoff rosters.

Sauce Gardner is going to miss this game and that has a trickle down impact in a variety of ways. At the base level, it increases the odds of a shootout and that’s the game environment it’ll take to get all of the Jaguar fringe options home.

I’ve got Jakobi Meyers ranked over Thomas and Brenton Strange, relative to position, more favorably as well, but I do think there are points aplenty in this one and if that proves accurate, flexing Thomas is a viable option.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs TEN)

You’re getting way too cute if you’re going to this rabbit hole.

I don’t have any Brown WR ranked as a starter this week, something that has been the case for nearly two months now. Harold Fannin is the one option attached to this passing game that has my attention at all, but that’s more of a positional scarcity thing than it is any confidence in this offense supporting anything of use.

Cedric Tillman earned just one target on Sunday against the Niners and that brings his totals to five yards and four targets in the Shedeur Sanders starts.

If you’re going to throw a dart on a skill set like this, you should be aiming for an offense that is at least middle of the road. I have a hard time seeing Tillman giving you what Dontayvion Wicks did for the Packers on Thanksgiving and that’s just one example of a low ranked receiver on a good offense that fell into a productive afternoon.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at DET)

Given what George Pickens is doing in this offense, it’s easy to not be impressed with CeeDee Lamb. The ceiling isn’t off the charts good and the highlights don’t go as viral, but over 65 receiving yards in all of his healthy games is nothing to shake a stick at (Thursday was his fourth with 110+).

More impressive than the yardage is the consistency in the catch department. Lamb has at least seven grabs in five of nine healthy games, giving us a floor that keeps him ranked as a WR1 in fantasy and the WR1 in Dallas.

The explosive plays of Pickens are great and have been there for the vast majority of this season, but which of these questions would you hesitate to answer more:

• A Dallas WR scored 25 points, was it Lamb or Pickens?
• A Dallas WR failed to score 10 points, was it Lamb or Pickens?

For me, the first question could go either way while the second, although not likely in either direction, leads toward Pickens.

Rate this WR room however you’d like: if you roster one, you’re playing him.

Chimere Dike | TEN (at CLE)

I think we’ve seen enough from Chimere Dike (the 103rd overall pick back in April) to think that there is something there and I’ll be interested to see how he and Cam Ward connect in their second season.

For the rest of 2025, you’re making an irresponsible risk/reward decision by keeping him with the thought that you’re ever going to feel good about playing him. Dike has two or fewer receptions in three of his past four games and has eight instances this season in which he’s failed to earn more than four targets.

The juice simply isn’t worth the squeeze.

Chris Godwin Jr. | TB (vs NO)

I don’t want to get out over my skis here, but was Chris Godwin’s Week 13 performance the most impactful three-catch showing of the season in terms of looking forward?

• Week 15 vs. Falcons
• Week 16 at Panthers
• Week 17 at Dolphins

That may sound crazy and maybe it is. But the veteran receiver picked up 20+ yards in each of those receptions , was involved on the first drive, and dropped what should have been a touchdown.

He looked healthy, and the Bucs need a stable WR2 in the worst way. Emeka Egbuka has run into something of a rookie wall, and Cade Otton is only capable of so much. I like Godwin as a flex over the next two weeks, and while there might be a Mike Evans return to navigate soon, Tampa Bay’s postseason fate is essentially going to hang in the balance when they face the Panthers.

We want our fantasy starters playing their most important games when we are, and that certainly projects to be the case here!

Chris Olave | NO (at TB)

Do you know how talented you have to be to earn four end zone looks in a three-game span for maybe the worst team in the NFL?

Chris Olave has done that. Twice.

He only had one catch for four yards in the first half in Miami last week, but Tyler Shough found him while scrambling on the first drive of the second half for a 17-yard TD, once again making him a profitable starting piece, even in a low-scoring environment.

This Olave season is what we thought the floor for Justin Jefferson would be. There are ceiling limitations, but he has seven finishes as a WR2 or better through 13 weeks and isn’t killing you.

I see no reason to expect anything but top 20 production this week against a Bucs defense that forces you to throw.

I can’t promise it’ll be pretty, but Olave has 115 targets this season for a reason and that level of volume puts less pressure on the quality of each individual look.

Christian Kirk | HOU (at KC)

Christian Kirk wasn’t targeted on 17 routes against the Colts and this lost season is officially dead after he showed minor signs of life the week prior with five catches in the win over the Bills.

This team likes what they are getting from Jayden Higgins as a compliment next to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz has been a reliable chain mover for the majority of the season.

The idea of drafting Kirk, a veteran next to a star WR1 with a complementary skill set was logical, but at no point this season has he lived up to expectations and there’s no reason to hold onto him at the end of your roster as you build out your depth for the postseason.

Christian Watson | GB (vs CHI)

The Christian Watson profile was pretty straight forward entering this season and his stat line this season would fit into those expectations: 21 catches for 363 yards and three touchdowns.

Not so fast.

Do we have an evolution taking place?

It’s a minor thing and it may be more Jordan Love than Watson himself, but does it matter? He missed the first seven weeks of this season, but since debuting in Pittsburgh, things are on the up-and-up in a way we’ve never seen from him:

• Week 8: 11.4% target share
• Week 9: 11.4% target share
• Week 10: 12.1% target share
• Week 11: 20% target share
• Week 12: 33.3% target share
• Week 13: 34.5% target share

I don’t think a +30% target share is here to stay, but the upward trajectory of things is certainly encouraging. Watson was the target on five of Love’s eight throws on Thursday afternoon, another sign that he might be more than a one-trick pony.

With extra time to prepare for this advantageous matchup, I’m more comfortable in playing Watson than I ever have been.

Famous last words? Maybe, but all we can do is play the odds and the odds are currently tilting very much in his favor.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (at ATL)

I’ll give Cooper Kupp for staying on the field the way he has post Rashid Shaheed trade, but he’s not giving us enough production to remain rosterable.

The former star has been held under 24 receiving yards in three straight and has earned more than four targets in just one of his past five. This is an offense that can score in bunches, but the volume is so low and the targets so condensed that a WR2 isn’t likely to hold our interest at any point for the remainder of the 2025 season.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (at LV)

For a while, this was Troy Franklin against Courtland Sutton for targets. That situation was leaning in the direction of Franklin, but on Sunday night, we saw Evan Engram come to life (led the team in targets, catches, and yards) while Pat Bryant was next up in terms of target share.

This is Sean Payton doing Sean Payton things and that’s good for Denver fans but a red flag for fantasy managers.

Sutton has now been held under 70 receiving yards in five straight, but he did bail you out with his fifth score of the season.

The touchdowns are going to come and go, so I find the 12.8% target share more concerning that the TD was encouraging.

I have both Franklin and Sutton ranked as strong flex options against a defense that ranks ninth worst in opponent passer rating this season. You can play both, but with the target distribution at risk of widening, the floor is worrisome for all involved.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (vs SEA)

Darnell Mooney has never been a hyper-efficient receiver because of his skill set, but this season has been bad, even by his standards.

His aDOT currently sits at a career high (15.0 yards with 40% of his looks coming 15+ yards downfield), and his yards per route are 24.5% below his career average. Over the past three weeks, he’s totaled just eight receptions, and you could, and I would, argue that all of those matchups were plus spots (Panthers, Saints, and Jets).

And now you’re comparing him against a Seahawks defense that allows points on a league-low 20.5% of drives?

Not. A. Chance.

I think he deserves to be rostered with nothing but good-weather games left on the schedule and games where this Atlanta offense is going to be forced to score to keep up, but he’s outside the flex range until we see some signs of life in this grounded offense.

Davante Adams | LAR (at ARI)

Davante Adams is battling a minor hamstring injury, and maybe that lowers his ability to elevate on touchdown celebrations, but I’m otherwise not worried until the coaching staff gives me reason to be.

We are witnessing one of the most unique seasons by a receiver in recent memory, and there are no signs of it slowing down.

The play designs and single coverage situations that present themselves in tight are elite. Still, his ability to uncover and connect with Matthew Stafford in a scramble drill for a seven-yard score last week was just another way for him to leverage his savvy.

Adams now sits alone in the seven-spot for career touchdown receptions after passing Antonio Gates last weekend and is as reliable an option in close as I can remember.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (vs PIT)

To the eye, DeAndre Hopkins still looks like a player who can make the tough catch and high-point the ball, but until the box scores give us proof, that’s a narrative not worth chasing.

He caught two passes in the loss to the Bengals, matching his season high in the process. He’s turned 160 routes into just 17 catches this season as he fills a very specific (15.3-yard aDOT) and very limited role for an offense whose passing attack is out of funk.

The Ravens are tied to hoping that he can provide a spark, but there’s no reason you should be, and that’s been clear for the majority of this season.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (at MIN)

Deebo Samuel left his imprint on the upset bid against the Broncos last week, but with Terry McLaurin back, he saw his aDOT expand, and that’s a long-term concern for a veteran receiver who struggles to separate.

On Sunday night, his aDOT was 8.6 yards, 3.4 yards higher than his highest mark over his previous five games. He and Marcus Mariota connected on a fly route late in that game, but again, that’s not where a soon-to-be 30-year-old Samuel is best suited to offer consistent fantasy production.

Last week reminded me that this is still McLaurin’s WR room. The Broncos acknowledged as much, sticking Pat Surtain on him from the jump, without forcing him to prove his health first.

That said, his unique blend of skills is awfully interesting in this spot. We know the Vikings are going to bring pressure, and all it takes is one well-designed screen at the right time for Samuel to make a house call from a distance. I prefer McLaurin over him, but I do think he soaks up some of the Zach Ertz usage from last week and lands inside the top 30 at the position this weekend.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (at LAC)

Searching for consistency in this Eagles’ passing game is a lost cause at this point.

You trust the volume, and you move on.

Smith has a target share north of 26% in five of his past six games, and he also has a 25+ yard game in five of his past six. He continues to do well in contested situations for someone of his build, and his involvement is in the AJ Brown neighborhood.

• 25+ yard catch in five of his past six games
• Only three TDs on 86 targets this season
• Target share over 26% in five of his past six

Depth of Target Splits

• Under 10 Air Yards: 84.8% catch rate
• 10+ Air Yards: 52.5% catch rate

Those splits aren’t drastically different from Smith’s career rates, but it drives home the impact of Jalen Hurt’s throw diet (pacing for the highest aDOT and second-lowest deep completion percentage of his career.

This matchup is tough on paper, but the Packers, Vikings, and Rams aren’t exactly friendly matchups and those are the opponents that Smith has found the end zone against this season.

In the leagues where I have Smith, I’ve committed to starting him weekly, and I’m sticking with that plan this week, betting more on a condensed target distribution than fearing the recent struggles of this offense as a whole.

DJ Moore | CHI (at GB)

There are a few brand or brand-adjacent names that aren’t performing as well as we’ve come to assume, and DJ Moore is certainly on that list.

On Black Friday, he turned five targets into just 17 receiving yards, the third time in four games in which he failed to get to 20. That’s obviously a low threshold, but he’s fallen below it more often over the past month than in games with 13+ PPR points this season.

Moore posted two usable performances in November, and that’s enough to have some holding onto hope that he’s a viable flex.

I’m not there. The scoring equity is limited in this offense by mouths to feed and by Caleb Williams’s inconsistencies. That’s tough to overlook when the volume is ordinary, and he’s coming off a game with a season-low in terms of slot usage.

If the easy button targets are evaporating as Luther Burden sees his role expand, the recent struggles look to me more like the new norm than an aberration.

DK Metcalf | PIT (at BAL)

We are heading into Week 14, and DK Metcalf has had one top 30 performance since the strong showing in Week 8 (WR12).

You can blame him, Aaron Rodgers, or Arthur Smith. I don’t really care because none of it is going to be fixed right now, which is why I’m looking for reasons not to start him, if at all possible.

The Ravens defense isn’t elite, but they profile well for this matchup by ranking top-10 against short passes in terms of completion percentage, YPA, and touchdown rate. Metcalf hasn’t reached 15 expected PPR points in a game this season and has just seven end zone looks (six seasons in Seattle: 17.3 end zone targets per season).

I have him hovering around WR30 this week, a damning statement given the injuries and four teams on bye. Would I rather have a handful of short targets to him or a few deep shots to Alec Pierce (at JAX)? Chris Godwin looked spry in his return from injury, and that’s a receiver with a similar route tree that I’d prefer (vs. NO) this week.

I’m not benching him for Tre Tucker or Devaugh Vele types, but if you have someone in the same general range, try not to be a slave to the resume.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (vs CHI)

And the Packer WR carousel just keeps spinning.

With Jayden Reed on the mend, the last thing we needed was another hat thrown into the target ring, but here we are. Romeo Doubs’ usage has faded after being featured in the middle of the season, and Christian Watson’s skill set doesn’t fit that of a WR1. Still, he’s been ramped up since returning … so of course it’s Dontayvion Wicks leading the way on Thanksgiving with a 6-94-2 line in Detroit.

Shrug emoji.

He caught all four deep targets that were thrown his way on Thursday, and those two scores brought his total up to two for the season. He’s been a part-time player all season long (54.5% snap share), and that wasn’t any different in this spot (50%); he just happened to find himself in the matchups that Jordan Love liked most.

Games like this are why I think Green Bay has a shot to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but the lack of clarity at the top of the target board also means that guessing how defenses are going to align against them is a dart throw.

Take away the long ball? Bring pressure and jam the receivers before they get into space? Zone coverage?

Any technique can work, and any can fail against this spread-out offense, and that’s why I’m not reading into this Wicks performance.

If you want to throw him at the end of your roster, I’m not going to stop you. He’ll likely have at least one more usable game moving forward in how this offense functions, but there’s little in the pregame matchup data that will ever highlight him as “the guy” for a given week.

For me, it’s Watson as a cut above the other options, with a healthy Reed filling more of a stable-but-not-exciting role in three receiver sets. All are viable, but none are dependable, and that’s reflected in my rankings.

Drake London | ATL (vs SEA)

In Weeks 9-11, Drake London was the third-highest scoring player in the sport. His 82.1 PPR points over that stretch trailed only Josh Allen (90.8) and Christian McCaffrey (87.0), leading the position by 19.2 points (Jaxon Smith-Njigba).

We know he was a star, but there are levels to these things, and he was ascending despite marginal quarterback play.

A knee injury has cost him consecutive games, though, and we aren’t exactly being loaded with glowing reports about his “not serious” injury.

This profiles as one of those easy situations where you simply mirror what the professional franchise does. This would be a brutal spot to return, but with 15 of 31 Kirk Cousins targets going to Kyle Pitts or Bijan Robinson last week in New York, it’s clear that there isn’t a secondary pass catcher to take looks off the plate of London.

He’s a dynasty-building piece, and while there is some risk in trusting him after a multi-week absence whenever it comes, he’s built up enough equity for us to rely on.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (vs NO)

Not all rookie seasons look the same.

Emeka Egbuka looked unguardable early in this season when everything was clicking in this passing game, but that may have been more the result of the situation than we initially gave it credit for.

• Weeks 1-5: 20.5 PPG, 60.5% over expectations, 2.50 yards per route
• Weeks 6-13: 9.7 PPG, 36.3% below expectations, 1.47 yards per route

He’s still earning work, and that’s what we need to be focused on. He’s cleared a 25% target share in five straight games, something I suspect we continue to see with him being identified as the future of this passing game.

The Saints’ defense has looked better since their Week 11 bye, but offenses led by Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa aren’t exactly threatening.

With four teams on a bye and a locked role to feel good about, Egbuka is a top 20 receiver despite the recent struggles.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs MIA)

News broke earlier in November that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out of multiple games at the time of the initial diagnosis.

Given the direction of this season, it’s reasonable to think that we’ve seen the last of New York’s WR1 this season. That hasn’t been reported, and until it is, you’re holding. The required four-game absence means that Wilson can return for Week 15’s game in Jacksonville, a matchup I’d be fine with targeting, and a New Orleans matchup the following week would also be intriguing.

But I’m not counting on it.

This is a floundering team that isn’t exactly motivated to compete. This passing game is broken, but with Wilson under contract through the 2030 season, he’s their primary path to digging out. The Jets need to figure out the quarterback position, but they have a building block in their top receiver and will want to enter 2026 with him at full strength instead of putting him in harm’s way this winter.

George Pickens | DAL (at DET)

The Chiefs executed their plan.

George Pickens was held without a deep reception (three such targets), had a sub-50% catch rate, and didn’t see a look in the end zone.

It’s hard to imagine Kansas City realistically asking for more from their secondary against a receiver who entered the game with 18 catches on 20 targets for 290 yards and two touchdowns over the previous two games.

Despite all of that, Pickens got you 16.8 PPR points, making the splash play of the key drive, and finishing off that possession with the two-point conversion.

If a receiver can produce a fantasy line like that where the defense is happy with the job they did, he’s a lineup lock and a top 10 option. CeeDee Lamb remains ranked higher, but that’s not a knock on Pickens (9+ targets in five straight games).

This is up there with the best receiving duos in the league and, for our purposes, is undoubtedly the most productive group on that list. We are well past the point of questioning whether both star WRs can coexist: this is an offense that uses the pass to set up the pass, and nothing indicates that significant regression is bound to hit either of them anytime soon.

You took a risk in drafting Pickens given the unknown nature of his role, and you’re being rewarded every week for it.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at BUF)

Earning targets at the professional level are difficult. You have to win on your route, stay connected with your quarterback, and navigate the real-time shifts of the defense.

It’s no easy task.

Remove a threat on the other side of the field, insert a quarterback who hasn’t played in over two months, and match up with an improving defense attached to a team that is trying to regain some Super Bowl steam … a poor Ja’Chase showing in Week 13 would certainly have been easy to explain away.

Instead, he earns a 31.8% target share, clears 100 yards, and piles up 24.3 expected PPR points.

Some players are just built differently, and Chase has proven it time and time again.

JA’MARR CHASE TOLD #BENGALS STAFFERS THAT JOE BURROW NEEDS A COAT BECAUSE HE IS ROYALTY.

“We know you only like Burrow, it’s all right. We understand he’s royalty. He brings Burrow a coat every time, but not everybody else. I said, I know Burrow royalty”
pic.twitter.com/ttbfYkdvCl

— Levels Sports (@LevelsPicks) December 3, 2025

The 50% catch rate obviously leaves plenty to be desired, but we have plenty of data points that suggest efficiency struggles aren’t to be taken seriously. This is as good a QB/WR connection as there is in the league, and while the Bills are better against the pass than the run, there’s no reason to panic.

Zay Flowers, Stefon Diggs, Drake London, Rashee Rice, and Jaylen Waddle are the WR1s who have posted 18+ PPR points in this matchup this season, paving the way for Chase to equal what he did on Thanksgiving if not improve.

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (vs IND)

Usually, when a team acquires a player, you hear the same stuff. The organization will praise him as a person and what he can add to the locker room, highlight his versatility, and hint at having a plan for him.

That wasn’t the case here.

Jacksonville brought in Meyers and said, “We are amazed at how often he catches the ball”.

That feels like a bit of a shot at the players in-house. Imagine you are a cook, and you are told that a company wants you because of how good you are at turning on the stove. Or you’re a truck driver with a sense of direction that can be additive.

At some level, those things are to be accepted, not highlighted, right?

Regardless of how the addition was framed, he’s making good on it. He caught all six of his Trevor Lawnrece looks in Tennessee and has now seen his PPR point total increase each week he’s spent with the team.

• Week 10 at Texans: 7.1 points
• Week 11 vs. Chargers: 11.4 points
• Week 12 at Cardinals: 15 points
• Week 13 at Titans: 21.3 points

Meyers not only had the 50-yard catch to spike his yardage total, but he also earned a 37.5% target share in Brian Thomas’ return (ankle). I don’t think a target share at that level is here to stay, but the title of top target earner on this team very well could.

I have him ranked as a low-end WR2 for fantasy and WR1 for the Jags this week. As it turns out, catching the ball is #goodforbusiness. Who knew??

Jameson Williams | DET (vs DAL)

The Amon-Ra St. Brown injury last week obviously played a part in Jameson Williams being the focal point of the Detroit passing game against the Packers on Thanksgiving (37% target share), but is that getting too much credit for the explosion?

He’s cleared 85 yards and scored in three of four games since Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties and has seen his aDOT drop by 35.3% in those games. It would appear that the head coach wants offensive versatility (opponents already fear Jahmyr Gibbs and St. Brown), and as he lays the groundwork for that, his explosive WR2 is handing out presents to fantasy managers.

I know, I know. Zero points in Week 12 against a gettable Giants defense. That hurt and likely cost you that week. Heck, I know people who it cost two weeks because they overreacted and benched him for Week 13.

This is a highly skilled player in a great system, run by an efficient quarterback. Williams very much falls into the “don’t overthink it” bucket of receivers: you accept the bad for the privilege of rostering the good.

This is another fast-track spot, and I’m happy to slide him in as a WR2. I think it’s fair to say that this Dallas defense isn’t the turnstile it was for the first two-plus months, but I’d still rather Green Bay’s defense, and we just saw them struggle to keep up despite a Detroit game plan that was forced to adjust on the fly.

I’m starting Williams every week moving forward and not giving it a season thought unless we see some drastic shift in usage patterns.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at ATL)

It happens, people, relax.

The fact that you’re in a position to complain means that your fantasy season is going to just fine.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn’t have a catch in the first 39.5 minutes of the game against the Vikings last week, a performance that dented his historic potential in a big way and probably cost you your week.

Deal with it.

Some of us are trying to navigate the time missed from Drake London, DNPs who are actually more valuable than running Justin Jefferson out there weekly. I’ll write this two-catch 23-yard stinker off to his QB, being the signal caller for last week’s opponent in 2024, thus giving them a pretty unique ability to scheme.

As for your crazy JSN stat of the week: even after a disaster in Week 13, Smith-Njigba can exceed his receiving yardage total from his first two seasons in 2025 alone if he averages 84.5 yards for the final five games of this season.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (at KC)

Jayden Higgins is moving in a positive direction for a team that is moving in a positive direction, a nice alignment of priorities, but not something that I expect to land him on our weekly radar.

The profile the rookie has put forth is impressive and will certainly be one I’ll consider for next season. He’s a viable depth piece for the final month of 2025 (4-5 receptions in four straight games), but in this matchup against the fourth-best defense in terms of limiting deep completions (2.3 per game), there is more downside in getting cute with a play like this than there is room for real reward.

My Higgins weekly ranking (usually in the 30-40 range) has as much to do with C.J. Stroud as it does the receiver himself: Are you comfortable in asking him to support three pass catchers?

I’m not.

Jayden Reed | GB (vs CHI)

The Packers opened up Jayden Reed’s (collarbone) 21-day practice window in the middle of November, and prevailing wisdom is that he takes the field for this huge NFC North battle.

This is a player that is going to be hard to trust in an offense that spreads it around, but don’t forget that Reed was battling a foot injury before the collarbone injury, and that means that we could be getting as good a version of Reed as possible once he returns.

No player in this offense has established himself as a strong target earner, thus leaving the door wide open for Reed to put himself in the PPR flex conversation the second he is officially ruled active.

I still prefer Christian Watson if we are stacking Packer pass catchers, but the case can be made for Reed if you’re backed into a corner.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at NYJ)

I was OK with the idea that Jaylen Waddle would have some down games as the WR1 in an offense that has limitations under center, but I didn’t expect consecutive iffy efforts in two plus matchups and that now has us left to worry about a wide range of outcomes for every week moving forward.

The role has been consistent, that much is fair to say. Waddle has earned 6-7 targets in four of his past five games, and he’s averaged at least 13 yards per grab in each of his past nine. But if the WR1 in an offense can go 21 game minutes without a touch, there are some scheme issues to take into consideration.

There was an end zone target directed his way, and it would have had a chance if the Saints were playing defense with 10 players, but they weren’t. That 11th man was a roaming safety that intercepted the floating pass and wiped away a chance for Waddle’s day to be made with a single play.

I don’t fear this matchup, and because I trust the quantity of looks, I can overlook my concerns on the quality side. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty of risk here, but that’s the dirty secret about the WR position: after about 13 options this week, they all carry a low floor.

• Justin Jefferson vs WAS
• Khalil Shakir vs CIN
• Michael Pittman at JAX
• Troy Franklin at LV

Those are just a few names in this massive tier of receivers that have as good a shot to finish as WR15 this week as they do WR45, and Waddle is smack in the middle of them as my WR20.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs TEN)

Jerry Jeudy has one finish better than WR32 this season.

One.

If not for his name, would you be remotely interested in rostering him?

He hasn’t been a top-50 option at the position in back-to-back-to-back weeks and now has three or fewer receptions in eight games this season.

The Browns are resigned to letting Shedeur Sanders get live reps under his belt as this season progresses, and while I agree with that organizational decision, it’s not exactly a path for Jeudy managers to recoup any value.

He’s a fast player, and Sanders at least appears more willing to explore that upside than Dillon Gabriel did. That leaves the door open for a random spike game between here and the finish line, but our ability to predict such a performance is low at best.

In theory, this soft defensive matchup would be a spot for that sort of game, but there are two sides to that coin. We know that Cleveland wants to be a run-heavy offense: what if they take an early lead and draw up 40 run plays on Sunday?

Jeudy sits outside of my top-40 at the position this week: I’d rather try to pin the tail on the Packer receiver or forecast the Luther Burden breakout spot.

John Metchie III | NYJ (vs MIA)

Right as we were coming around to John Metchie, we got a 19-yard showing.

Selfishly, I burned time on Sunday watching the Jets to see if I thought what he was doing was real, saw him drop what looked like a touchdown in the making, and then stayed tuned in long enough to see AD Mitchell score all of the points that were supposed to go to our waiver wire find.

It happens.

He still saw eight targets, and forgive me if I’m not exactly sold on Mitchell as a WR1, so I don’t think we cut ties. Our job between now and the fantasy playoffs is to determine who is the WR1 in New York and if it matters.

My money is still on Metchie (he was targeted on the first pass last week), but there’s a very real chance that it doesn’t matter. All we can do is take well-thought-out bites at the apple and let the chips fall where they may.

It’s Metchie over Mitchell for me, though both should be rostered: cheap targets are hard to find this time of year, especially for a team like the Jets, where we expect the game script to be running away from them more often than not.

Jordan Addison | MIN (vs WAS)

Through two NFL seasons, Jordan Addison proved himself as a threat downfield and a touchdown scorer. We had questions about his ability to earn targets at a high rate, but the single-play upside next to the well-rounded nature of Justin Jefferson was a perfect match.

As it turns out, skill sets are great, but you need a quarterback to make them matter, and the Vikings are learning that the hard way.

Minnesota has scored 23 points over the past three weeks, and that environment is making it nearly impossible for anyone on this offense to produce. Addison’s strengths haven’t been seen for a while (one touchdown in November and three straight games without a grab, gaining more than 15 yards), and I’m struggling to pull a single thread that has something optimistic attached to it.

This Washington matchup looks good on paper, but if the quarterback play doesn’t improve in a major way, it won’t matter. Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love, to varying degrees, have had consistency issues this season: the Commanders didn’t allow any of their receivers to score 12 PPR points.

Addison was valued too high entering this season because of a TD rate that had nowhere to go but down. This final two-month stretch could result in him actually turning into a nice buy in August if your draft room overreacts to the 2025 box score (and if Minnesota cleans up this QB room, of course).

Josh Downs | IND (at JAX)

Tyler Warren is the primary piece of this Indy passing game, and Alec Pierce holds a unique role. Those two have been less impacted by the backwards trajectory of Daniel Jones over the past month than Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, two talented receivers who share a similar role.

Downs wasn’t exactly thriving when this offense was humming, his next game with 60 receiving yards will be his first of the season, but at least he was getting looks and he was efficient.

Over the past month, his catch rate has been 35.7%, a steep decline from the 76.1% figure he put forward prior, and a crippling flaw given the low passing volume of this offense.

I’m fairly confident that Downs is a talented receiver and will have better seasons moving forward, but I don’t think the positive momentum starts this week. He runs over three-quarters of his routes out of the slot, and the Jags own the top-ranked slot defense in terms of opponent passer rating (third best in YPA).

For Week 14, both the Bears and the Chargers have a trio of receivers that I’d play over him.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs WAS)

It’s a good thing that Justin Jefferson doesn’t get paid by the catch, the yard, or the fantasy point. If that were the case, there would be social media accounts tracking his decline in the number of chains he wears during the games.

At this point, I don’t know what there is to say. We’ve seen him produce fantasy numbers with some QB uncertainty in the past, and that means that the current situation in Minnesota is as bad, if not worse, than the raw stats suggest.

On Sunday, Jefferson had catches of eight and negative-four yards. Over the course of the entire game. In a spot where the Vikes had nearly twice as many pass attempts as rush attempts due to the score of the game.

Yes, Max Brosmer had as many interceptions as Jefferson had receiving yards, something that feels made up.

That’s now five straight games under 65 receiving yards, six straight without a 30-yard catch, and an 11-game run where he has, checks notes, one touchdown reception. Entering this season, I would have thought it impossible for Jefferson to go through a stretch like this, but here we are.

The semi-good news is that if you’re still alive in your fantasy league and roster Jefferson, you probably have a helluva team that is getting production from just about everywhere else.

I’d love to give you some sort of statistical silver lining for this situation, but there’s literally nothing outside of his raw talent to cling to. The Commanders don’t generate much pressure, so maybe there’s a world where Kevin O’Connell simplifies the offense and encourages his QB to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers on timing routes, understanding that, without pressure, there should be some semblance of rhythm.

Maybe.

Hopefully.

Terry McLaurin will be in this game just one week removed from a month-long injury and facing a stiffer defense. I didn’t hesitate to rank him above Jefferson. He’s ranked next to Christian Watson and Khalil Shakir this week, and of that trio, I’m not at all sold that he holds the highest ceiling or the highest floor.

Keenan Allen | LAC (vs PHI)

This season, 26 of Keenan Allen’s 60 receptions have come on third down, proof positive that while he’s struggling to light up the fantasy scoreboard (one top-35 finish after a hot three-game run to open the season), the Chargers are getting what they need.

Good for them, bad for us.

Allen has had five straight games since his 11-119-1 line against the Colts, with 2-4 catches, and given the chain-moving mentality of those looks, they don’t exactly carry much in the way of upside.

On the bright side, I don’t know how mashup-reliant Allen’s profile is. The bad teams don’t force as many third-down situations, so I’d argue that stiffer defenses actually increase the target projection for Los Angeles’ veteran WR3.

At some level, that’s splitting hairs because he hasn’t done enough to hit your lineup consistently. Still, with a tough finishing kick (Eagles-Chiefs-Cowboys-Texans-Broncos), it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s their second most productive receiver and on the fringes of viability in deeper PPR formats.

Allen currently resides in that uncomfortable ranking zone where I’m not green-lighting a drop, but I’d also be hard-pressed to start him.

Keon Coleman | BUF (vs CIN)

Keon Colmeman found the end zone in Pittsburgh last week, a touchdown that had to do wonders for his mental state after being a healthy scratch in consecutive games.

I’d love to get excited about a big target in this Josh Allen offense, but they’ve shown no willingness to feature him, and it sounds like he hasn’t exactly been holding up his end of the bargain either.

He’s a high-risk, medium-reward player at best, and considering that nine different Bills ran 9-21 routes last week, the target ceiling just isn’t high enough for me to label him as a roster-worthy dart throw.

If exposure to this Buffalo offense is what you want, Gabe Davis led their WRs in routes run last week and has more institutional knowledge than Coleman when it comes to this Allen-led system.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs CIN)

We are coming up on 18 months of pitching Khalil Shakir as a high-floor play, but he’s been anything but that over the past month:

• 7 catches for 58 yards
• 1 catch for -3 yards
• 8 catches for 110 yards
• 1 catch for 5 yards

I can handle some volatility, but it’s the nonsensical nature of it that’s the problem. The pass funnel Bucs were responsible for that -3-yard showing, and the Texans, one of the best defenses in the entire NFL, were gashed for his only 100-yard showing of the season.

I recommend starting Shakir every week, just to lock in the points (usually), but if you were playing the matchup game, you’re probably even more frustrated.

The Bengals are a bottom-10 defense against the slot in terms of passer rating, YPA, and touchdown rate, all things that should point to a nice bounce-back week for Shakir. I’m rinsing off the recent swings in production, remembering that he should have had a touchdown on a well-designed red zone route combination if Josh Allen didn’t try to throw the ball through him from five yards away, and playing him as a low-end PPR WR2.

We aren’t asking for much. Just give us the five-for-60 lines that we’ve come to know and love.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs PHI)

It took a minute for Ladd McConkey to get the engine revved this season, but I’m OK with where things stand now and feel comfortable starting him weekly in all formats.

He was held without a touchdown in September, but he hasn’t been held out of the paint in consecutive games since. The upside has been lacking of late (52 yards on 10 targets over his past two games), and the Justin Herbert hand injury is certainly worth monitoring. Still, the once-confusing hierarchy of this passing game seems to have returned to what we assumed it would be this summer.

For those already looking ahead to next season, I’d say there’s a good chance I’m a reasonable amount higher than others in the industry when it comes to the ranking of McConkey.

Luther Burden III | CHI (at GB)

It’s a slow grind, and while we are getting there (three straight games with 5+ targets, including a game on Thanksgiving in which he led the Bears in looks), it seems more likely than not that we run out of time for redraft purposes.

His target share has settled in the 16.7% – 18.8% range for all three of those games, a passable rate for a player like this if his QB is playing at a very high level, but Caleb Williams isn’t doing that right now.

This is a team that is aware that run blocking is their strength, and we saw them lean into that in a major way last week. It still feels as if we might have a big game at some point over the final month of the season, but the profile isn’t going to get to a point where we can project it with high confidence.

Read the Rome Odunze section. At this point, a bet on Burden is effectively a bet against Odunze and the other target competition in Chicago. This matchup looks like a problem spot for their WR1 and, in theory, that opens the door for an outlier Burden game (one game with more than 51 receiving yards this season).

If you want to lean into the pedigree, I’d suggest doing so in a DFS format where, if you connect the dots, you open yourself up to a big payday, rather than a single win in a season-long format.

Marquise Brown | KC (vs HOU)

This offense as a whole hasn’t exactly been what we signed up for, which makes banking on the fourth option impossible.

Marquise Brown left Thanksgiving hungry after earning just two targets in the loss to the Cowboys. Yeah, he scored his fifth touchdown of the season, but he was fifth on the team in routes and receiving yards, a role that just isn’t worth chasing in the least.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

With one game of more than two receptions since the middle of October, this is a profile that isn’t worth your time, even with him being attached to a desperate Kansas City offense.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs LAR)

Marvin Harrison Jr. returned from his appendicitis operation and was featured in a Michael Wilson-like way.

The presumed WR1 of this offense looked the part with three catches (25 yards) on the first drive and was pretty clearly the top man on the depth chart when looking at the distribution of looks in the first 30 minutes.

First Half Receiving Data at Buccaneers

• Harrison: 4 catches on 4 targets, 46 yards
• Trey McBride: 3 catches on 3 targets, 17 yards
• Michael Carter: 1 catch on 2 targets, 14 yards
• Michael Wilson: 1 catch on 2 targets, 10 yards
• Elijah Higgins: 1 catch on 1 target for 8 yards

Harrison matched a season high with seven receptions, and it was his efficiency (seven targets) that should have you excited. This offense under Jacoby Brissett is a high-volume passing attack, and if he’s going to be the top receiver, he’s got a very clear path to a top 20 ranking.

The WRs who have hurt Los Angeles most recently have been the secondary options (outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 11), and that’s a concern if they slant their coverage in the direction of Harrison after this performance.

With some risk factored in, Harrison is a starter for me in all formats as long as Brissett is throwing the ball all over the yard.

Matthew Golden | GB (vs CHI)

Matthew Golden was inactive on Thanksgiving due to a wrist injury. Still, considering that he was a limited participant in practice during the short week, it’s easy to connect the dots and say that he is down a ways on this depth chart.

With Jayden Reed trending back and Dontayvion Wicks showing well for himself in the win over the Lions, you can safely cut ties with Golden in redraft formats. The first round draft capital argument will make itself known entering 2026, and we can address that moment when we get to it: for now, this is a receiver with a single strength that isn’t prioritized by this offense.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at JAX)

Michael Pittman managers were living the good life for two-plus months, but the Daniel Jones passing game seems to be leaking some oil, and his WR1 is feeling it in a significant way.

Over his past three games, Pittman has turned 89 routes into just 59 receiving yards with his 0.57 PPR points per target last week against the Texans easily being his low water mark for the season.

The worst part?

In comparing his profile for those three games to the first nine of his season, it doesn’t look drastically different. In fact, with a dip in aDOT and a rise in slot usage, I’d argue that the role he has filled of late should be MORE efficient than the one he held prior.

That makes this a Jones problem and there;s really nothing you can do about that. This offense works through Jonathan Taylor, and with splash plays hitting at a high rate to Alec Pierce, the drives are either run-centric or over quick because of a bomb, neither of which is optimal for those holding Pittman stock.

The Jags have allowed the opponents’ top-producing WR to clear his season-long PPR average in nine of 12 games this season, and Pittman did clear 13 fantasy points in both games against them last season, so all hope is not lost.

He profiles as a reasonably strong PPR flex. There were moments earlier in the season where he was on the verge of cracking the top 15 at the position thanks to a role that seemed bulletproof, but the math has changed a bit lately, and if Indy has its way, this is a run-heavy game that suffocates the Jags.

Nico Collins | HOU (at KC)

Nico Collins had reached his expected point total in just three of his first eight games this season, but he’s now done it in three straight, and it all feels sustainable.

Last week against the Colts was the fourth time this season that he saw over 30% of the targets go his way, and it was the fifth time in six games that he cleared 100 air yards.

Leveraging his athletic profile is one thing, but how about a gadget reverse from seen yards out to get him the first rushing score of his career?

I’d argue it took too long, but better late than never. The Texans are embracing a very sharp plan of getting the ball to their best player regularly, and they’ve won four straight. Collins’ best production this season could be in front of him, and while this is obviously a tough matchup, this is a player who, at the peak of his powers, is matchup-proof.

CeeDee Lamb scored 24.2 PPR points against the Chiefs during the Thanksgiving upset, and that was despite Dallas often disclosing its plan to “go to 88.” I don’t think the Texans need to announce it; they just need to do it.

Parker Washington | JAX (vs IND)

A hip injury kept Parker Washington in the locker room for the second half last week, a tough break for fantasy managers who had been riding the hot hand (three top 20 finishes in the first four games out of the bye).

We will see where his status lands as the week progresses, but even at full strength, he’s not going to be a player I recommend starting.

It’s pretty clear that Jakobi Meyers fits this offense like a glove, so with Brian Thomas and Brenton Strange nearing full health, how many targets are there realistically to be earned?

In each of those aforementioned top 20 finishes, the 23-year-old had earned at least seven targets. I’m intrigued by what he can do with the ball in his hands, but I’m skeptical that this offense is going to prioritize his usage in any sort of meaningful way now that this offense is as put-together as it’s been since the Meyers trade.

He should remain involved, but a 3-5 target projection is very different from what he was seeing, and that’ll leave him outside of my top 40 at the position should he clear all recovery hurdles heading into the weekend.

Pat Bryant | DEN (at LV)

Pat Bryant ran more routes on Sunday night than Troy Franklin (37-32) and led the receiver room in targets (nine), but he didn’t exactly pay off the plus-usage (7.2 PPR points).

This is exactly the receiver profile I stash at the very back-end of my rosters as I prepare for the playoffs. He’s set a season high in targets earned in consecutive weeks, and while there is nothing guaranteed moving forward, he’s clearly got the attention of this coaching staff and is trending in the right direction.

I’m not ranking him ahead of Courtland Sutton or Troy Franklin right now, and I don’t think there’s a real chance he jumps them for the WR1 role on this depth chart. That said, he’s on the field plenty, and that allows him to be Denver’s WR1 for any one isolated week.

Fliers like Rashid Shaheed or Jayden Higgins don’t really have that within their realistic range of weekly outcomes. The Bryants of the world (Keon Coleman and AD Mitchell qualify) have a real path to bail you out if you’re stuck, and that’s what I want access to should I be forced to start someone buried on my roster.

Puka Nacua | LAR (at ARI)

Davante Adams scores twice, and Matthew Stafford plays his worst game of the season.

That was the Week 13 runout for the Rams, a combination of events that allowed Puka Nacua to bust, but he still caught six passes for 72 yards. With everything working against him, he finishes the week with more PPR points than Justin Jefferson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and DK Metcalf.

Combined.

He made one of the catches of the year with a back-handed stab down the field, just a reminder of the talent he has access to. Shake off the inefficient outing (66.7% catch rate, down from the 81.6% figure he entered the week with) and be thrilled that you have one of the few stars who has as high a floor, when healthy, as any player in the sport.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs PHI)

Quentin Johnston got the touchdown on the Chargers’ first drive last week as Justin Herbert quickly identified a mismatch with a linebacker and paired him off.

But that was really all we got from QJ against the Raiders.

He airballed in Week 11 and scored in double figures in Week 13: his expected point totals were just 0.3 PPR points apart between the two showings. The version we’ve seen of Johnston lately is the version we’ve come to know, and that makes him more risk than reward on a week-to-week basis.

• Weeks 1-5: 22.7% target share
• Weeks 7-13: 15.2% target share
• Career: 16.2% target share

The Eagles own the third-highest opponent average depth of target this season, so if you want to roll out there as a Captain for your MNF Showdown lineup as a way of getting different, be my guest. In that situation, it’s a big swing, small miss situation. Playing him in a season-long situation is a bit different, and the risk involved is why I have him ranked outside of my top 35 at the position.

Rashee Rice | KC (vs HOU)

The word “unstoppable” is probably a little strong, but Rashee Rice is the apple of Andy Reid’s eye, and that is about as advantageous a spot as we could possibly ask for.

On top of the YAC skills that jump off the screen regularly and the clear slant of the playcalling to keep him engaged, we got a red zone wildcat snap last week. It didn’t work, but the idea of putting the ball in his hands and taking it out of Patrick Mahomes’ in a scoring situation tells you just how he is looked at in the building.

• 109 receptions
• 144 targets
• 1,292 yards
• 10 touchdowns

That’s what Rice has given you over his past 15 healthy regular-season games. His 37.5% target share on Thanksgiving was a season high, and he was the only Chief to see the ball thrown his way on third down multiple times.

Kansas City has no room for error, and they have no interest in taking usage off the plate of their WR1. If you told me that Rice was the top-scoring receiver in the sport moving forward, I wouldn’t blink, and you can make the case that he’ll be a first-round pick in August.

You rolled the dice on him in your draft, and you are being rewarded in a major way for doing so.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (at ATL)

I can see it now. And you can come back to me on X (KyleSoppePFN) when it happens.

Rashid Shaheed, after not making any real impact for two months, makes a splash play or two in a big Seattle playoff win. It’ll confirm our initial thoughts of their trading for him, but after our fantasy seasons are over, they can no longer benefit.

That’ll be annoying.

The burner has been held in the 46-56% snap share range for three straight games, and he has a total of 8.0 PPR points over that stretch. Not eight points per game, eight total points.

If you want a lottery ticket at the end of your roster, I’m stubborn enough to hold on to Shaheed, but this being the second-lowest volume passing game in the league (27.3, only Baltimore throws less) has killed his trajectory and leaves him outside of my top 35 this week.

That said, the fast track of Atlanta would be something to cling to if you’re looking for a low-owned DFS option that comes preloaded with slate-breaking upside.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs PIT)

Rashod Bateman (ankle) returned to action against the Bengals on Thursday night, but you wouldn’t know it unless you avoided a turkey-induced coma and were truly locked in, as he failed to catch his only target on 30 routes.

His yards per route (0.78) and air yards per game (42.9) are easily pacing for career lows, trends I don’t see reversing any time soon. Zay Flowers looks the part of a WR1, and with a pair of viable tight ends, there’s simply not enough volume to chase for a player that has yet to really prove capable of doing so.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at GB)

Fantasy football is funny, isn’t it?

You drafted Rome Odunze as your WR3 or WR4 this summer with the thought being that he could, with time, take work off the plate and DJ Moore, and peak at the right time. That you might have to lose the initial fight, but that you’d be in a good position to win the war.

You were right about Odunze being more talented than the industry gave him credit for, but man, you were wrong about the run-out.

He scored five times in September and was threatening weekly top 10s as we flipped the calendar to October. Since, however, it’s been unsteady to say the least … exactly the inverse of what you expected.

He’s scored just one touchdown since that opening burst and has turned 21 targets into just 102 yards (seven catches) over the past three weeks. Is this a receiver we should consider benching until he rediscovers his early-season form?

As it turns out, it depends on what you think of the matchup of the lines.

Chicago has allowed pressure on under 32% of dropbacks six times and over 32% six times this season.

Rome Odunze Splits

• Low-pressure games: 18.5 PPR PPG, 27.8% target share, 5.0 catches
• High-pressure games: 5.8 PPR PPG, 19.2% target share, 2.3 catches

This means that a bet on Odunze is effectively one against Micah Parsons.

You can do that if you’d like, but I’m not. The Packers have created pressure on at least one-third of opponent dropbacks in 10 of 12 games and are gaining confidence when they elect to blitz (13th in blitzed pressure rate through Week 6, third best since).

The 49ers (Week 17) are the only below-average pressure defense left on the Bears’ schedule: I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the trends fit the recent trajectory when it comes to Odunze.

Romeo Doubs | GB (vs CHI)

In the middle of the season, it appeared that Romeo Doubs was the answer to the WR1 debate in Green Bay, but with under 25 receiving yards in two straight and three of four, that competition isn’t just back open; I’m not sure he’s in the conversation.

Tucker Kraft was the right answer to the “who is the most reliable pass catcher in this offense” question that we’ve been asking since Davante Adams left town, but with him out of the mix, this situation was Doubs’ to take.

It hasn’t happened, and he’s trending in a direction where I’d cut him loose for a stable handcuff if the opportunity presented itself. Thursday was a huge game against the Lions, with Josh Jacobs coming off a DNP and a high point total: in theory, that’s a spot where a true asset would shine.

Nope.

He saw just 10% of the first half targets, a signal that this coaching staff isn’t making getting him looks a priority. He scored, and that ultimately saved you if you were backed into starting him, but be aware that you were more likely than not with that decision.

When he was targeted, it wasn’t in a dangerous way. His 2.8-yard aDOT against Detroit was underwhelming, and this role isn’t going to be available as Jayden Reed mends. This is a run-first offense that likes taking deep shots to Christian Watson. It’s not a complicated system, and with Dontayvion Wicks leaving his fingerprints all over the turkey last week, Doubs’ time to shine appears to be gone.

Holding Doubs is acceptable in leagues where the waiver wire is thin. I’m not cutting ties with him for the hot receiver on a bad team of the week type, but I’m also not hesitating to move on should a reasonable handcuff be available in your league.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at BUF)

Suffering a concussion means a missed game more often than not, and considering that the Bengals had a quick turnaround last week, Tee Higgins never really had a shot to pass through the needed protocols in time.

That said, it does sound like he’s good to go for this week, and with Joe Burrow returning in Week 13, there’s no real reason to feel skittish in starting his star receiver.

Higgins has scored five times in his past five games and was drafted as a fringe WR1 this summer, when the assumption was that this offense would look like the one it currently does. Ja’Marr Chase is the alpha in this passing game, and that’s not going to change, but there’s enough food on the table for multiple pass catchers to be fed, especially if this offense is forced to play catch-up with Josh Allen on the other side.

Higgins’ yards per route are down 29.1% from a season ago: you can feel good about a more efficient version of him moving forward, and I’d expect to see it on Sunday.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at MIN)

Terry McLaurin played for the first time since Week 8, and to say that the Commanders showed zero reservations in working him back into the mix would be a vast understatement.

Week 13 WR Usage

• Deebo Samuel: 43 routes and 7 targets
• Treylon Burks: 39 routes and 4 targets
• McLaurin: 33 routes and 14 targets
• Jaylin Lane: 18 routes and 1 target
• Chris Moore: 12 routes and 0 targets

Yep, that’ll play. Eight of his looks came when locking horns with Pat Surtain, a heck of a way to be welcomed back with a backup QB calling the shots, but he grinded through the brutal matchup and rewarded you for your loyalty.

The Vikes haven’t allowed a receiver to clear 12.1 PPR points in four straight, and their aggression puts opposing offenses in a rather unique bind. That said, one way to beat the exotic schemes is to get rid of the ball in a hurry, a game plan we saw this Washington offense execute against the Broncos.

Tory Horton | SEA (at ATL)

Ahead of Week 12, Tory Horton was placed on injured reserve due to a shin injury.

The expectation was for him to miss a game or two, but with this designation, he’s shelved for another two games at minimum, and that has him firmly off of redraft fantasy radars.

He showed moments of viability and should be considered a deeper league sleeper next season, depending on where he sits on the depth chart. Still, when it comes to the stretch run of 2025, you can feel good about moving on and opening up a roster spot as a result.

Xavier Worthy | KC (vs HOU)

Thursday was a reasonable step forward for Xavier Worthy, putting him back in the flex mix after being a reasonable, comfortable bench for a month.

Against the Cowboys on Thursday, he caught four of six targets and offered up an explosive play with Patrick Mahomes running for his life (42-yard gain). It was the first time since Week 7 that the burner met or exceeded expectations on the type of targets he was getting, and that’s progress.

He’s far from a lineup lock given the volume that Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are demanding. Still, his ability to thrust himself into that conversation in terms of opportunity count is all we can realistically ask for.

His only touchdown catch of the season came back in Week 6, also the date of his last end zone target. His slot usage has dipped some since Rice returned, and that lowers the floor, but it’s his red zone usage, or lack thereof, that is to blame for his underachieving stat line this season.

Last year, Worthy was looked at on 24.3% of his routes inside the 20-yard line. Through 13 weeks, that rate has been more than sliced in half (10.9%), leaving chaotic big plays as his only real path to a ceiling performance.

There aren’t 10 players in the league more capable of making those plays, but it’s a dangerous line to walk, something fantasy managers are obviously aware of, given the recent struggles.

Houston is a Tier 1 defense in many ways, and that carries over to its ability to defend the deep pass. They rank in the top quarter of the league against passes thrown 15+ yards in terms of YPA, passer rating, and touchdown rate. It’s fine to view Week 13 as a net positive for Worthy while still not being comfortable with him in your starting lineup.

That’s where I’ve landed. With four teams on a bye, he’s a fringe top 30 receiver for me and a risky proposition if your matchup is expected to come down to the wire.

Zay Flowers | BAL (vs PIT)

I hope you enjoyed the first half of your Thanksgiving, because if you rostered Zay Flowers and hoped the nightcap would be a highlight, you were left wanting more.

Or, really, anything.

He turned seven targets into just six yards, had a TD wiped off the board due to a 50/50 offensive pass interference call, and, for good measure, lost a fumble.

The production stunk, but duds happen. What worried me was the fact that Lamar Jackson had plenty of success throwing to the other two featured pass catchers (nine completions for 142 yards on 12 targets to Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews) and that Flowers’ aDOT was a career-high 14.3 yards.

Now, some of that was the result of the game flow, but the concern is still there: if Flowers’ route tree is pushed vertically in favor of these two-tight-end sets that prioritize the bigger weapons in close, the range of outcomes widens in a significant way.

I’m hoping that last week was an aberration, not a new norm, and ranking based on that basic assumption. Flowers had scored double figures in nine of 11 games before last week (even without a TD since Week 1), and I’m keeping that as my baseline for a minimum expectation … for now.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (at ATL)

It’s not comfortable, but I think you can get away with AJ Barner this week and as a low-end TE1 the rest of the way.

One of every 6.3 routes run this season by the 23-year-old has resulted in a reception. While you can fight based on the value of those catches (9.7 yards per catch and held without a TD reception since Week 5), he’s an efficient and consistent player for a very good team, an environment that elevates him above the other names on your wire.

Barner has caught all 12 of his third-down targets this season and has nine rushing attempts, seven of which have come in the past six games. There might be 20 tight ends with a higher weekly ceiling than Barner, but I don’t think there are 12 with a better base projection, and that’s enough to stabilize a roster that is grasping for straws at the position.

Brenton Strange | JAX (vs IND)

Brenton Strange has now cleared 13 PPR points in consecutive games after missing more than a month, and with the Jaguars seemingly set to peak at the right time, why move on?

The 21-yard score last week was his first of the season, a well thought out seam route on their third drive (his first target of the week). There are a few mouths to feed in this passing game, and it’s fair to question how often Trevor Lawrence will keep them all happy. Still, there was a clear top-3 in terms of routes run (Strange, Jakobi Meyers, and Brian Thomas Jr. all ran over 25 while no other pass catcher touched 20), and if you’re buying what this franchise is selling, you could make the case to start any of them.

To keep it in the division, isn’t Strange essentially Dalton Schultz? An up-and-down QB with a pedigree that has two receivers he trusts, but the tight end as a safety valve ends up being appealing 4-7 times per game.

Schultz scored 12.5 points in this matchup last week (24.8% above his season average, the fourth time in six games that a TE has produced at least that far ahead of his season mark against Indy), and I think that’s a perfectly reasonable baseline here.

Strange enters Week 14 ranked as my TE7.

Brock Bowers | LV (vs DEN)

Brock Bowers’ first touchdown last week was a nice play design by interim OC Greg Olson that helped him uncover in the back of the end zone and the second one was just a great player making a great play.

It’s been a bumpy season for the consensus top TE entering this season, most of it not really his fault. The QB play has been subpar (yes, it’s the holiday season and I felt like being kind) and an injury cost him more than a month.

That said, if you’ve managed to navigate the position up to his point, you have an asset that ranks behind only Trey McBride moving forward.

He’s been worthy of your trust in three straight games following the bizarre one-catch, three-target showing against the Broncos and it’s safe to assume such production moving forward.

It’s never going to be comfortable betting on a Geno Smith target, but it’s scarier to fade a talent at the level of a Bowers.

Brock Wright | DET (vs DAL)

A neck injury kept Brock Wright out of Thursday’s loss to the Packers and while I’m not sold that he holds great upside, this is a high-powered offense that is going to be without Amon-Ra St. Brown for the short-term.

Do I think he can step up the way Jake Ferguson did for Dallas after CeeDee Lamb got hurt earlier in the season? Notta chance. Do I think he could see in the neighborhood of the seven targets he earned in Week 11 against the Eagles? It’s possible and given the state of streaming the tight end position, that’s going to be intriguing for some.

The ceiling is limited, but if you’re chasing what I expect to be a reasonable floor, I think there’s a thread to pull.

Cade Otton | TB (vs NO)

The Bucs are getting healthy-ish and that means our dance with Cade Otton is coming to an end.

We’ve seen it for a few years now that whenever Baker Mayfield has other viable places to go with the ball, he does. There’s a reason why Otton has never reached 60 receptions, five touchdowns, or cleared 600 receiving yards in a season.

Chris Godwin’s Week 13 stat line won’t jump off the page at you, but he made a few splash plays and looked like 85% Chris Godwin, a great sign for this offense, but a damning one if you were banking on their TE to finish the fantasy season as an asset.

Cardio Cade turned 29 routes against the Cardinals into nine yards, and I think we see more of that than the 5-7 catch performances we were getting in the middle third of the season.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (at CLE)

Chig Okonkwo might be an interesting piece for the Titans to hold onto during the Cam Ward developmental stage, but there’s no reason for fantasy managers to grin and bear it.

Despite being on the field plenty (25.5 routes run per game), Okonkwo has just one game with 60+ receiving yards and doesn’t have a touchdown this season (or even an end zone target for that matter). In a perfect situation, you’d have to work hard to sell me on a Titan and in a game that could be a race to 18 points, no chance.

Cole Kmet | CHI (at GB)

Cole Kmet’s touchdown on Thanksgiving helped put the game out of reach, a massive play for the Bears, but one not felt by many fantasy managers.

And I think that’s right.

He’s on the field plenty with Chicago, not afraid to run out two tight ends, but it’s clear who they value more as a receiver, and that was the case last week, even if Kmet was the one dancing in the end zone.

• Kmet: 68.2% snap share, targeted on 5.2% of snaps and 15.8% of routes
• Colston Loveland: 58.8% snap share, targeted on 12% of snaps and 24% of routes

Kmet still has just one game this season with more than five targets earned and this isn’t the type of offense built to sustain two at the position. He’s meant more to the Bears than to us for 13 weeks and I fully expect that to be the case for the remainder of this season.

Colston Loveland | CHI (at GB)

It’s been a bit of a slow burn for Colston Loveland managers, especially when you juxtapose his season with that of Tyler Warren.

Thanksgiving was more of the same: positive underlying trends, but limited production. The former Wolverine has cleared 55 receiving yards just once this season and has fallen into the “OK, I’m getting 3-4 catches for 40-50” bucket at the position.

That’s not the most fun, but it’s enough to keep Loveland on rosters with the weekly hope that Ben Johnson unlocks him in a specific matchup.

If he was a receiver with this production profile, we wouldn’t be waiting on the pedigree in this run-centric offense, but because he’s not, we are.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (at LAC)

I feel like I say it every week in this space, just using different numbers to illustrate the same point.

Dallas Goedert isn’t a viable fantasy tight end.

You’re chasing a touchdown in a run-based offense that is struggling to move the ball in any fashion. Goedert’s name is familiar, but with three straight two-catch performances, what exactly are you waiting for?

He’s not going to jump up the pecking order of this offense, and with under five targets in four of his past six, it’s clear that there simply isn’t a role to chase.

For the season, 27.3% of his receiving yards came in that big game against the Giants back in Week 6, a blowout home loss.

You can do better on the wire, even if you’re trading in more of a brand name for a lesser resume.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs CIN)

It came down to the wire last week, but this hamstring injury was enough of a concern to Dalton Kincaid for one more week.

With him practicing ahead of Week 13, prevailing wisdom has him being active for this advantageous spot. If you’ve been waiting on Kincaid, that means you lack optionality at the position and are going to plug him in when given the opportunity to do so.

Cincinnati has proven allergic to guarding the position for two seasons now, and we know that Kincaid has TD equity at the very least (one of every nine targets this season has resulted in a score). The floor is low because the target earning skills are a work in progress (36 in eight games) and an injury like this could act up in-game, but he’s better than what is available in most leagues and that’s really all you’re looking for.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (at KC)

Nobody is going to fall in love with the upside of Dalton Schultz, but I encourage you to look at the position more than the boxscores.

Since the Week 6 bye, Schultz has been a TE1 in five of seven games, getting there almost solely based on volume 8+ targets in four of his past five games).

This offensive line struggles to run block, and with Jayden Higgins working his way into the WR2 role, the receivers C.J. Stroud is looking at most are vertical options. That means that Schultz is, in some capacity, their running game via short passes.

I wouldn’t bet “overs” on his yardage totals, but you don’t need the yards if the receptions are piling up as they have for him this season (5+ grabs in nine of his past 11).

The Chiefs are going to aim to pressure Stroud and take away Nico Collins: yes, their defense is talented, but isn’t that the perfect run out for a low aDOT TE like Schultz?

Darren Waller | MIA (at NYJ)

Darren Waller missed the required four games with the pectoral injury that landed him on IR in the middle of October, and he looked reasonably healthy against the Saints.

He tied with Malik Washington for the second most routes run on Sunday and we know what the Dolphins think of him: catch passes, don’t worry about blocking. That role works into our favor and I was encouraged to see him record Miami’s first catch of Week 13.

We even got a splashy play (34 yards) in the second quarter, though that was more a product of New Orleans going with the bold strategy of not guarding his side of the field.

He checked the boxes we needed, but Waller was shut out in the second half, and let’s not act like he was making fantasy waves earlier in the season because of his ability to earn looks (15 targets in his five games this season).

There was an end zone target sent his way as there always seems to be, but Tua Tagovailoa put a little too much on it, and Waller caught it out of bounds. For me, he’s still on the outside looking in when it comes to TEs. I feel reasonably good about streaming (give me Harold Fannin or Juwan Johnson this week if I get to choose), but last week inspired hope, and that’s the name of the game at the tight end position.

David Njoku | CLE (vs TEN)

With Harold Fannin popping up in the play-by-play a few times (TD, lost fumble, etc), I’ll admit it: I forgot that David Njoku was active on Sunday.

Through 11 weeks, he averaged 28.2 routes per game, but over the last two weeks he has totaled just 20 routes and gained just 4 yards.

We are done here and that’s been the case for a while. Even if he claws his way back into a split with Harold Fannin, something I’m not expecting, do you really want to start a committee member attached to this offense?

Easy pass for me.

Dawson Knox | BUF (vs CIN)

Dalton Kincaid has run hot with his touchdown rate, so it shouldn’t be shocking that his replacement has struggled.

Math suggests that Kincaid himself was going to have a hard time keeping up with the pace he had set for himself, thus making Dawson Knox a shaky investment at best.

In the three games that Buffalo’s TE1 has missed, Knox has earned a total of 11 targets and has not yet reached 30 receiving yards. Reports are trending in a positive direction for Kincaid, and we will have that conversation, but the idea of streaming Knox was a flawed one from the beginning, and it has borne out with his increased opportunity.

Evan Engram | DEN (at LV)

The beginning of Sunday Night Football was underwhelming to say the least. We had an Evan Engram dropped a pass in the early going and then Bo Nix decided that a bounce pass was the most efficient way to get his tight end the ball in another situation.

He was clearly schemed up by Sean Payton, but for whatever reason, the dots weren’t being connected.

Until they were.

He ended up setting a season high with six receptions (he hadn’t seen six targets in a game since mid-October) and looked like a fluid athlete in space, the exact profile that we drafted him for four months ago.

If you kept him through all the struggles, you’re a more patient person than I am.

Engram has an average depth of target of just 3.3 yards over the past two weeks, and while that’s boring, it’s helped him catch 10 passes over that stretch after hauling in just six in his previous three.

.@Broncos @eazyengram this is his specialty…This “jerk route” in OT helped win the Broncos their 9th straight W. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/SHOYbWxOS8

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) December 3, 2025

He gave us a dud performance in the first Raiders meeting, a thrilling 10-7 win for the Broncos, but my hopes are higher this time around. With the short-range role his to lose, I think we see 4-6 catches for 50-ish yard games with regularity moving forward.

That’s the farthest thing from exciting, and we know that Bo Nix can have peaks and valleys, but anything around 10 PPR points from the TE position is viable and will keep you afloat.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (vs TEN)

This is Harold Fannin’s tight end room, and while that may not mean a ton, it gives us enough clarity in Cleveland to say that he is the streaming option out of an offense that is looking for answers.

His profile is a bit different than other fringy TEs. Personally, when I’m streaming, I view it as damage control. “Which of these players is least likely to lose me this week?”

Maybe you’re different from me. Maybe you want a week winner and are willing to absorb more risk than I am. Both can be right. Or wrong. That’s the nature of the TE streaming world.

Fanning hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards in a game since October, has another tight end at least sniffing around, and is playing in an offense with very much a work in progress under center.

All of that is true, but uncertainty can turn up some gems from time to time. His 34-yard touchdown to end the first half last week against the Niners was beautiful: he found the vacated spot in the zone at the same time Shedeur Sanders did, and the Dawg Pound got the first of what they hope is many scores from that connection.

Fannin did lose a fumble on a Tush Push scheme that never had a chance, but it does speak to their comfort level to have him handle those high-value snaps. He’s cleared eight PPR points in four of his past five and has seven straight games with at least five targets.

I can’t make the case for him being a “safe” play. Without the touchdown last week, he finishes with nine yards and you’re complaining. It’s a fine line at the tight end position, but this is about as well as you’ll see the Cleveland position project, and that’s why he slides just inside my top 12 at the position for this week.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs PIT)

We almost got Isaiah Likely into the painted area for the first time this season on Thursday night. Still, he lost a fumble at the last possible second, costing you eight fantasy points and, as it turns out, the Ravens’ playoff equity.

The one play is your lasting memory (stretching for an end zone that you’re about to fall into was an interesting choice), but he hit season highs in catches (five) and receiving yards (95) in the loss. The 25-year-old is pretty clearly the second most explosive pass catcher in this offense, and if this was a sign of things to come, a strong kick is possible given where Baltimore sits in the standings.

I’d love for that to be the case, but we have little proof that Todd Monken is in favor of that development, and his word matters just a little more than mine.

Likely again ran fewer routes than Mark Andrews, and if his opportunity count is going to be held in check, anything less than peak Lamar Jackson is going to make him a tough click.

I still favor him over Andrews when we are looking at projectable numbers, but it’s tight, and the floor is low for both. Likely is a perfectly viable streamer in this spot and most weeks, though he doesn’t appear destined to hold the “we need to hold him” designation in 2025.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (at DET)

Jake Ferguson is what he is and that’s enough at the tight end position, even if it’s irritating on a week-to-week basis.

He’s caught exactly five balls in consecutive games and in three of his past four, a volume that half your league would kill to get from the tight end position. The rub is the yardage: Thursday was the seventh time this season he’s failed to clear 40, and with both receivers functioning at a high level, it’s hard to imagine much of a role change moving forward.

Do the Bengals get consistent TE production next to CHase/Higgins? What about the Rams alongside Nacua/Adams?

Ferguson is more talented than any tight end on those rosters, but you get the point. There is only so much usage for him to assume, and while the PPR floor is stable, it’s important to understand that the projectable ceiling now isn’t in the same range as the numbers he was producing earlier this season.

Jonnu Smith | PIT (at BAL)

I’m done with everything touching Pittsburgh’s passing game.

We’ve been off the TE carousel for a while, but if you need the data, Jonnu Smith ran 13 routes over the weekend, four more than Pat Freiermuth and seven fewer than Darnell Washington.

Smith was schemed up at a low level to open the season, but he hasn’t caught more than three passes in a game since Week 2 and hasn’t had a 15-yard catch since Week 3.

There’s no quantity or quality to chase in this offense as a whole, and that especially holds true for a TE room that is splitting its reps three ways.

Juwan Johnson | NO (at TB)

This is a two-man passing attack for one of the worst teams in football.

Sold.

Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson are getting as much work as they can stomach as the Saints attempt to stay competitive for 60 minutes, and while the stat lines aren’t flashy, Johnson is getting the job done.

Active TE Streaks With 8.5+ PPR Points

1) Trey McBride: 14

2) Johnson: 6

3) George Kittle: 4

That’s not bad company, not bad company at all.

I’m obviously not ranking him among those two super stars, but he serves as a nice reminder that there can be value mined in some ugly situations.

The Buccaneers are a pass funnel defense that will score points: look for Tyler Shough to flirt with 40 pass attempts for a third straight week and land Johnson near, if not in, the top-12 at the position.

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (vs SEA)

How many tight ends do you think have at least four games with 7+ receptions this season?

The answer is three.

Kyle Pitts is obviously on that list; otherwise, this would be an awfully weird spot to drop that fact, with Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson being the others.

The good weeks haven’t been the problem. Not this year and not since he was drafted. We know what Pitts can do when all the dots are connected, but we also know just how quickly things can go sideways and leave us feeling like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football.

He has seven games this season with under 40 receiving yards, and with him unable to offset the yardage risk with touchdown equity (his only touchdown this season came in September, and just one of his 75 targets has come with his feet in the end zone), the risk analysis conversation often skews in the negative direction.

There’s a time and place for Pitts. Maybe this is quietly one of them?

Seattle owns a great defense, that much we know. Great defenses, in 2025, aren’t great because they shut everything down (unless you’re playing the current version of the Vikings, then why not), but because they shut down what you want to rely on most.

I’m not sure Pitts is viewed as such. The Seahawks have seen a TE score at least 48% above his season average in four straight games, and if that trend continues, Pitts could finish inside the top 12 at the position in consecutive weeks and for the sixth time this season.

Luke Musgrave | GB (vs CHI)

There are a lot of similar tight ends in the free agent pool, and my eye, like yours, naturally gets drawn to those playing in offenses with the potential to score 30 points.

Process-wise, I think that’s sound, but Luke Musgrave earned just a single target on his 14 routes against the Lions last week and isn’t being asked to do Tucker Kraft things for this offense in the absence of the star tight end.

That’s now three straight games with only a single catch, and I don’t think his role is likely to change in a meaningful way any time soon. In the upset Thanksgiving Day victory, Musgrave was one of seven Packers to run at least 11 routes, this coming in a game played without Jayden Reed.

Good match and good offense, but not a good option for your fantasy roster until we see signs of life.

Mark Andrews | BAL (vs PIT)

Mark Andrews is more important to the Ravens than he is to your fantasy team; it really is that simple. Volume was once the name of the game, but he hasn’t caught more than four passes in a game since September and is splitting work with a much more explosive player in Isaiah Likely.

That said, he still led the way at the position on Thursday night with 26 routes to Likely’s 22, and they split 12 targets down the middle. In this era of tight end production, a handful of targets in an offense with top 10 upside is worthy of our attention.

Generally speaking, I look to avoid variance when setting my fantasy lineup, but that’s not the case at TE. It’s a wasteland for most and a strength for the others: if I airball on a streamer, I feel like I’m still alive, whereas that’s not the case at other positions. I have Likely ranked higher this week, and that’s my standard take as I’ll take his skill set over the hope that Andrews finds paydirt, something that has proven impossible next to Lamar Jackson over the past three weeks.

Mason Taylor | NYJ (vs MIA)

I can’t shake the feeling of Mason Taylor being a part of the long-term rebuild in New York, but he’s not someone you need to be banking on now.

Tyrod Taylor’s first two completions went to his rookie tight end last week in the win over the Falcons, hitting his quota early and moving on.

He was held without a reception for the remainder of the game and hasn’t reached 35 receiving yards in a contest since Week 5. This team needs offensive talent, and Taylor might well be a part of the vision, but for the 2025 stretch run, it’s tough to project much differently than what we saw over the weekend.

Mike Gesicki | CIN (at BUF)

Mike Gesicki moved the chains on a third down that felt important in the fourth quarter last week against the Ravens. Still, I was underwhelmed by his role in an offense welcoming back Joe Burrow and operating without Tee Higgins (concussion).

Cincinnati ran a tight end committee, and that’s a quick way to have me outright dismiss them as a team of interest in the never-ending search for streamers at the position. Three Bengal TEs ran 15-23 routes, and while they combined for 10 targets, the distribution was scattershot, and that only figures to get more difficult to predict with Higgins expected back.

I don’t expect to be interested in the TE position from this team moving forward, and that’s certainly not going to be the case against a Bills team whose struggles come in stopping the run more than the pass.

Oronde Gadsden | LAC (vs PHI)

I think it’s safe to say that the run of Tier 2 production from Oronde Gadsden is in the rearview, and the question now shifts to whether he is viable or not.

I’m skeptical at best.

He’s turned 13 targets into just six receptions over his past three games, and now we have this Justin Herbert hand injury to navigate. Against the Raiders, he ranked behind the three primary receivers in routes run and targets. They all got a touch in the red zone (and so did Tre Harris if you’re keeping track at home) while Gadsden did not, another strike against him in terms of paths to viability at the tight end position.

Of course, it takes relatively little to be in the mix for a top 15 grade at TE. His unique ability to make big plays (20+ yard grab in six of his past seven, 14,1 yards per catch this season) lands him as such, but I don’t think he’s realistically above the streaming tier for the remainder of the season.

• Week 14 vs. Eagles
• Week 15 at Chiefs
• Week 16 at Cowboys
• Week 17 vs. Texans
• Week 18 at Broncos

This offense as a whole could underwhelm, and that’s without penciling in limitations for Herbert. I think you can give him one more week with four teams on bye and a lack of stability in the TE8-TE15 range, but if he fails in this spot, I’d consider you among those streaming the position the rest of the way.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at BAL)

I’m going to stop including Pittsburgh tight ends in this article.

Pat Freiermuth ran nine routes on Sunday against the Bills, a game in which they were behind for the majority of the second half and pressed to open things up a bit.

He didn’t earn a single target, making it his fifth game this season with 0-1 receptions. For the year, 37.2% of his receiving yards came in that goofy game on Thursday night to open up Week 7 in Cincinnati.

There’s no way to chase volume in this TE room, and if you’re searching for a touchdown, Freiermuth isn’t even the Steeler tight end I’d target (Darnell Washington).

Sam LaPorta | DET (vs DAL)

“Very, very slim” was how Dan Campbell described the chances of us seeing Sam LaPorta (back) again in 2025, and that means you can safely move on from the third-year tight end.

LaPorta still has another year left on his deal, and with his age-25 season coming up for a team that wants to chase annual success, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the organization is proceeding with caution.

Brock Wright will continue to fill the TE role on this offense. However, prevailing wisdom suggests that their three elite skill-position players (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs) will continue to do the heavy lifting, with the TE position as a whole more of an afterthought/complementary piece.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs WAS)

The pass catcher in this Minnesota offense that we were most willing to give up on early is now their most efficient?

Sometimes, I hate this game.

TJ Hockenson caught all six of his targets over the weekend, the third time in four games where a ball thrown his way didn’t hit the turf, a feat that was even more impressive when you consider that Max Brosmer was 13-of-24 with four interceptions when throwing to players not named Hockenson in Seattle.

This feels like a red herring at the highest level. The efficiency is well above expectations, and with Jordan Addison/Justin Jefferson continuing to get looks, I’d expect natural regression to swing in their direction sooner than later.

Whether the WRs bounce back or not is one thing, but I’m not comfortable clicking Hockenson as a starter into critical matchups this week with “efficiency from Max Brosmer” being the leg I’m standing on.

Travis Kelce | KC (vs HOU)

Travis Kelce’s stock is on the rise despite Kansas City’s results trending in the other direction. While he doesn’t have the top producer at the position upside that we’ve had locked in for half a decade, he’s putting you ahead of your competition more often than not at the position.

The future Hall of Famer has a touchdown in three of his past five games and has a 20+ yard grab in five of six. His touchdown came on a fourth-down play to round out the first quarter, and it’s clear that his connection with Patrick Mahomes hasn’t faded in the least.

Rashee Rice is the primary option in this offense, and it’s not close. But Kelce has separated from Xavier Worthy as the clear-cut second option, and that’s enough to land him well within my circle of trust this week, even against one of the best defenses in the league.

Trey McBride | ARI (vs LAR)

The only thing stopping Trey McBride these days is the Cardinals.

I’m beginning to feel about him the way I did about peak Steph Curry: what if they just told him to shoot from every position? Even with the defense eventually catching on, wouldn’t that yield more expected points than running a traditional offense?

McBride has caught 27 of 30 targets over his past three games and has scored seven times in his last seven. That’s an incredible run without the context that this is the same player who had six TD receptions in his first three seasons, a run of 49 games and 292 targets.

Michael Wilson was making history in Weeks 11-12, but it didn’t matter. Marvin Harrison returns to the lineup in Week 13 and looks solid, but it didn’t matter. The NFL is unaware of how to shut down McBride, and Jacoby Brissett is happy as a clam to funnel targets to his All-Pro.

You ended up on the very right side of the McBride vs. Brock Bowers drafting decision this summer, and I’d bet you have a real shot at winning your league because of it.

Tyler Warren | IND (at JAX)

The fall hasn’t been the same for Tyler Warren as it has for Emeka Egbuka when it comes to evaluating super prospects that came out of the gates flying. Still, it is worth noting that he’s failed to reach 55 receiving yards in four of five games and is coming off a season-low 22 against the Texans.

He scored, and that really solves any issues (I have no idea what you’re supposed to do when this offense is inside the 15-yard line and run Jonathan Taylor play-action). But the bumpy Daniel Jones experience has certainly impacted Warren’s production.

The creativity is still ther,e and that’s why I really don’t have any hesitations in starting him across all formats. The Colts are happy to run him in a variety of routes, and we know there is always the chance of a cheap Tush Push score, even if it didn’t work out over the weekend.

In this very critical game, I suspect that this coaching staff looks to punish the Jags’ aggression toward the run game with a few Warren chunk opportunities. He, of course, needs his QB to deliver the ball on time, but this profile still looks like that of a top 5 producer at the position in terms of stability, and that makes him an easy player to feel good about.

Zach Ertz | WAS (at MIN)

Zach Ertz had his best game of the season on Sunday night, and it could have been even bigger if not for a great defensive play that dislodged him from the ball on a chunk play attempt late.

Marcus Mariota looked the way of the veteran tight end to pick up a critical fourth down on the final drive of regulation, and he looked good across the entirety of the game.

I don’t think we see another 10-catch game any time soon, but 4-6 is a reasonable projection and, more often than not, enough to justify playing him. In five games with Terry McLaurin active this year, Ertz has reached double-digit PPR points three times, something that I don’t think is an accident.

The first two such performances came with Jayden Daniels at the controls, so I’m comfortable with him as a backend TE1 in week 14, regardless of who starts at QB.