The NFL season is in full swing, and fantasy football managers are watching every play for any sign of an edge. With plenty of surprises and shakeups emerging each week, there’s a lot to consider for both casual players and die-hard fans.
This is a moment in the season where making the right move could be the difference between chasing a championship or falling out of contention. Buckle up—fantasy football is about to get even more unpredictable.
Alvin Kamara | NO
At this point, if you’re starting Alvin Kamara, it’s because you’re stubborn.
I’m stubborn to a fault, and even I’m not tempted by this Kamara profile based solely on the production from last season.
The veteran hasn’t run for 35 yards a game in October and hasn’t scored in any capacity since Week 1. The age curve is certainly part of it, but under a yard per carry over his past five games isn’t exactly helpful.
Kamara hasn’t been a plus-per-carry runner since 2020, and that means that a bet on him these days is a version of betting on Spencer Rattler.
Sorry, but I have better ways to spend my weeks.
The Bucs are more of a pass funnel, and that leaves the door open for Kamara to score 10 points as a pass catcher, but I’d rather not play that game. Not in this offensive environment.
Bijan Robinson | ATL
If it weren’t for Christian McCaffrey existing, what Bijan Robinson is doing would be the topic of even more stories. He’s pacing to be the rare 5+ YPC and 5+ receptions per game player, proving himself as one of the most script-proof backs in recent memory.
Nothing against Rico Dowdle (32.4 PPR points against the Dolphins), Kimani Vidal (22.8), or Quinshon Judkins (26.4), but none of them are in the same zip code as Robinson. They all had their way with this fading franchise, and that puts Robinson in a position to do special things.
He’s my RB1 for Week 8, and if the Falcons want to make a statement for their best player, this could be a crowning moment on a historic season.
Braelon Allen | NYJ
A “pretty serious” knee injury landed Braelon Allen on IR ahead of Week 5, and it’s generally believed that we are looking at an absence that extends well beyond the required four weeks.
Isaiah Davis is the new Breece Hall handcuff to make sure is rostered, though his path to value hinges fully on the health of RB1. That said, if Hall were to go down, the Jets have December dates with the Dolphins and Saints, matchups that will require us to start whoever is atop this depth chart then.
Brashard Smith | KC
It’s not like we’ve seen this Reid system elevate a Round 7 running back before, right?
Brashard Smith looks like he has some juice, though I would caution against reading too much into the Week 7 boxscore, as he was featured in the fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes wearing a baseball cap.
Before last week, Smith had more catches (nine) than carries (eight). He was hardly used during his time at Miami, and when he was, it was in a third-down type of role (69 catches against 18 rushes). That said, he was a bellcow during his final collegiate season, running 235 times and catching 39 passes last season with SMU.
I’m less worried about what he can do at this level; I’m sold on the film, but the opportunity count. Isiah Pacheco is certainly running hard enough to make us think he is now fully healthy, and Kareem Hunt is a veteran who is trusted at a high level.
If he’s on your waiver wire, I’d make the add. I prefer him to a player like Ollie Gordon: someone who might be closer to the top of his depth chart but projects to be limited by his surroundings, even if given the lead role.
Breece Hall | NYJ
There are a lot of moving pieces for the Jets, and very few of them have a positive note for Breece Hall.
I take that back: he’s a trade candidate and that’s a positive.
While a part of this team, I’m not sure what you want him to do. His PPR points per touch are down 20% from a season ago and, thanks in large part to a lack of offensive versatility, doesn’t have a touch gaining more than eight yards in consecutive games.
If you want to cry “tough matchups,” fine. You do that. I’m not sure this Jets team could hang 30 points on 11 of PFSN’s finest, and without a ceiling, the low floor (zero touchdowns this season and only one 25-yard touch) is concerning.
RELATED: Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
I do think this is his role for as long as he’s in town, but even that comes with some level of risk (Isaiah Davis handled New York’s second rushing attempt last week). You’re starting Hall most weeks because his path to 15+ touches is reasonably clear, and this week specifically because … #Bengals.
That said, it’s important to manage expectations moving forward unless he gets dealt. If that’s the case, there’s no telling how excited I’ll get.
Bucky Irving | TB
Bucky Irving was ruled out well in advance of last week, and that’s not a great sign. The Bucs are aware of what Irving offers, so it stands that they will be cautious.
In a weird way, this is good for us. Having to replace a borderline first-round pick is a pain, but losing him mid-game because he rushed back is even worse. Tampa Bay goes on bye next week, and thanks to their success up to this point, it makes sense that they’ve ruled him out for this game with an eye on the future.
Tampa Bay goes on bye next week, and with their record being what it is, it wouldn’t shock me if the team targets Week 10 as a return date.
You want him back into his bell cow role, not for this meeting with the Saints, but for his next one, a part of a very light December schedule (Saints-Falcons-Panthers-Dolphins).
Cam Skattebo | NYG
The first receiving touchdown of Cam Skattebo’s career came last week in Denver, and it showcased some precision to go with the reckless power that we’ve come to know and love from the rookie.
He continues to hold the lead role and catch multiple passes every week, elevating his floor in a way that most rankings outside my top 10 at the position don’t.
He’s more of a grinder than a big-play threat (121 touches this season and not one of them has picked up 25 yards), but with the proven versatility, there’s no such thing as a real bad spot for him.
On the surface, it’d be easy to argue that if such a spot existed, the Eagles would be it — a solid defense with an offense that can chew up the clock while putting points on the board.
That sure wasn’t the case two weeks ago when Skattebo racked up 110 yards and scored three times in the upset win on Thursday night.
I don’t expect him to run that hot again (six red zone touches and a 100% success rate), but in this era of committees, I find it almost impossible to knock him out of my top 15.
Chase Brown | CIN
I’m going to stop well short of saying that Chase Brown was unlocked on Thursday night, but with 108 yards on 11 carries (four games prior: 112 yards on 37 carries) against the Steelers, we certainly got the production we’ve been waiting for.
Does it sustain?
Not in the way you’re hoping, at least not for me.
He can be a viable RB2, but I don’t think there’s a ton of upside to chase. Even in the big effort last week, he averaged less than a yard per carry before contact and came up short of a dozen rush attempts for a fourth straight game.
The latter wouldn’t scare me as much if this offense looked the way it did last season (22.5 receiving yards per game), but it doesn’t.
I understand we are looking at small samples across three quarterbacks, but he has just one game with as many receiving yards as he averaged last season. If this team is truly going to embrace a high PROE plan, the floor is too low to consider Brown a top-15 player at the position moving forward.
He’s a talented RB whose role, even with the recent spike in Samaje Perine’s usage, is strong enough to merit a spot in our lineups. I’m OK with that evaluation, but I’d caution against using last week as a way to hop back on your preseason notion that this is a back with top 10 potential.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS
The nagging calf injury didn’t stop Chris Rodriguez from taking the field against the Cowboys last week, and he cashed in a short carry, but with eight touches in October, there’s no reason to look this way.
This isn’t a backfield I want to handcuff, and even if it was, we aren’t sure of what the touch distribution would be between Jeremy McNichols and Rodriguez.
There are going to be weeks where he falls into the end zone, like last, but there aren’t going to be weeks where you’re seriously considering flexing him, so why hold?
Christian McCaffrey | SF
After six straight games of posting gain rates under 85%, Christian McCaffrey punched the Falcons in the mouth for 129 yards on the ground with a 91.7% gain rate.
He was already the most valuable running back in the game, and now he’s unlocking efficiency?
You drafted the CMC, ignoring some health risks and focusing on the ceiling outcomes.
You’re hitting the ceiling every week (7+ targets in every game and 17+ carries in five straight), and as long as he stays on the field, you won the first round of your draft this summer.
That’s hard to do: now you just have to finish the job!
Chuba Hubbard | CAR
Chuba Hubbard returned from injury and was the starting back, but he really didn’t do anything to earn that label, and that could result in a role shift as soon as this week.
Week 7 Usage
- Hubbard: 50% snap share, 7.5 PPR points, 2.2 yards per carry
- Rico Dowdle: 42.9% snap share, 10.6 PPR points, 4.6 yards per carry
He made the most of a dump-off pass and picked up 26 yards, easily his most impactful play of the afternoon. Hubbard picked up yardage on just 71.4% of his carries, the second-worst showing of his career for a game that had at least the 14 carries he recorded on Sunday.
This backfield is playing out how I expect Minnesota’s to when Jones returns: some initial deference to the incumbent starter, but a gradual lean to the more explosive player.
With six teams on a bye, you’re likely low on other options. Hubbard is better than anything still on your waiver wire, so if you’re stuck, you’re stuck. I’m more cautious about expectations for the remainder of the season.
D’Andre Swift | CHI
That’s consecutive games north of 100 rushing yards for D’Andre Swift, and with him averaging 3+ yards both before AND after contact in each of those games, I tend to buy what he’s selling us lately.
I was discouraged early by Kyle Monangai getting work on the first drive (including a 14-yard carry) and Roschon Johnson’s number being called on a red zone play, but zoom out, and there’s very little to complain about.
- 20 touches
- 7 red zone touches
- 10+ yards on 26.5% of his carries
Ben Johnson is leaving his imprint on this offense, and I expect things to only get better with time. This is trending toward a career year for Swift, and while the Ravens figure to be in better shape after their bye, I’m not worried about this matchup enough to downgrade Chicago’s lead back in a significant way.
The reflex is to sell a running back after a few good games, but with the bye in the rearview and my lack of concern over the secondary threats, I’m perfectly content to hold my Swift shares for the remainder of this season.
De’Von Achane | MIA
If you told me blindly that, entering a week, my running back would produce 44.7% of his team’s net yards and account for all of their touchdowns, I’d spend the majority of my time that week finding out creative ways to take out loans to bet on said player.
Unless he’s a Dolphin.
Miami was inept on the offensive end for essentially all 60 minutes in Cleveland last week. Achane continues to prove himself as a top-shelf talent, and that allowed him to turn 16 touches into 98 yards, but with this team rarely approaching scoring position, there’s only so much even a gifted running back can do.
Maybe the fast track of Atlanta will help this week, but the down Achane weeks rarely have anything to do with Achane. The single-play upside means you have a starter in all formats, but entering the season, I thought Miami’s lead man was on the short list of players that could lead the position in scoring this season.
He’s not. He’s not close.
Derrick Henry | BAL
We got a tease before the buy, and now, with Jackson potentially back, we might be all the way back. Against the Rams in Week 6, Derrick Henry had one more carry of 5+ yards than he had in the month prior, and the spread suggests we are back to preseason Ravens with QB1 under center.
I’m in.
The volume came back before the buy because the Ravens were competitive, and if they are operating from a position of power, a vintage performance against the Bears is very much within the range of outcomes.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer
The King has gone three straight games without a 15+ yard run, and I can’t imagine I’m alone in thinking that streak ends in a major way. Henry is my RB3 this week and could be a hinge player in DFS contests, with six teams on bye and ownership likely to gravitate toward the other two Tier 1 RBs on the main slate.
Dylan Sampson | CLE
Dylan Sampson made waves with the big Week 1 performance against the Bengals, but Quinshon Judkins has established himself as one of the true bellcows in the sport, thus leaving Sampson to come up short of a 20% snap share in five straight games.
The fact that he recorded just four touches in a weather-impacted Week 7 25-point win is a red flag at the highest of levels. Hopefully, you didn’t need to see that, but now that you have, this player doesn’t need to be rostered in any format.
Isiah Pacheco | KC
The Chiefs wasted little time in systematically destroying the Raiders, so it really was just a matter of who Reid wanted to feed.
He elected to get Rice rolling in his season debut.
That’s not to say that the Pacheco stat line was an issue. He scored and touched the ball 16 times, something that I think is about the ceiling of expectations in any given week. But it was Rice with the touchdowns, and that stood in the way of Pacheco having a big day.
The snap share continues to trend in the right direction, though Brashard Smith, a player who garnered some Pacheco comparisons, continues to impress on the opportunities he’s given.
It appears clear that Pacheco is the lead backfield, but it is unclear how much usage this team wants to give to a single RB. All three of the primary runners got their hands on the ball on the first drive, and if Kansas City truly is that indifferent as to who is getting those opportunities, the weekly floor is terrifying.
I’ve been impressed with Pacheco’s health and will continue to rank him as an RB2, though the risk needs to be acknowledged as you build out your lineups.
J.K. Dobbins | DEN
For the second time this season, J.K. Dobbins gained yardage on every one of his carries as he continued to run hard.
And yet, I’m not sold.
Denver doesn’t call his number too often in scoring situations (2.1 red zone touches per game for a bellcow isn’t impressive) and without versatility (22 receiving yards this season), there’s more floor than ceiling in this profile.
He’s basically 2025 Derrick Henry without 2025 Derrick Henry expectations, and that’s not a compliment.
Dobbins is currently surviving on volume, and that’s enough to make him an RB2 in good spots like this, but this feels like a house of cards waiting to be blown in.
What if Sean Payton elects to give RJ Harvey more work? What if Nix leans into his athleticism more like he did last week?
I’m not sure there’s room for growth, and I know there is room for his production to backtrack.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
It would appear that the Jacory Croskey-Merritt profile is working on borrowed time.
He’s had two impressive games. In the other five, he’s produced 24.6% below expectations and is averaging just 0.58 points per touch, a level of inefficiency that requires elite volume to be an ordinary back.
If Jayden Daniels isn’t himself, this offense as a whole has less upside, and their RB1 can’t handle a ding like that (in the five iffy games, he has a total of four red zone touches). The Chiefs haven’t allowed a running back to reach even 9.0 PPR points so far in October (opponents: Jaguars, Lions, and Raiders), a trend that I’m not sure changes this week.
Call him what you want — I’m not calling him a top-20 running back in a week when 18.8% of the league isn’t in action.
James Cook | BUF
There are levels to this.
James Cook is fantastic. He has more touchdowns than games played since the beginning of last season and has developed his skill set around the strengths of his MVP quarterback.
But he’s not “elite.”
During this two-game skid, he’s totaled 136 touchdown-less yards. He’s failed to catch a pass in both of those games, and after having a 25+ yard gain in three straight to open the season, he’s now gone three straight without a touch, picking up more than 15 yards.
Cook is a weekly starter and an easy top 10 player at the position. But as good as he is, this is a good reminder of just how valuable the top few names at each position are.
Javonte Williams | DAL
If we are picking nits, Javonte Williams has turned 14 targets over the past three weeks into 11 receiving yards.
That’s all I got.
Williams has picked up 10+ yards on over 10% of his carries in five of his past six games and continues to get plenty of work in scoring situations (multiple red zone touches in every game this season, 3+ in four straight).
There’s no competition to speak of, and, to be honest, Williams’s runs are Dallas’s best line of defense. They allow them to sustain drives and keep the opposition off the field, something this team very much needs to succeed.
Remove a blitz that left Denver vulnerable to a gash run (31-yard run by Tyron Tracy), and they held a reasonable Giants ground game to 88 yards on 31 carries last week. Williams gets dinged because of the matchup, but it’s not nearly enough to matter: you’re playing him in all formats.
Jaydon Blue | DAL
Jaydon Blue doubled his season carry total last week against the Commanders and earned his first professional target, but his usage was more to get Javonte Williams a breather than a chance to carve out his own niche.
The rookie isn’t a must-hold, but he’s also not a must-cut. My instinct says that if Williams were to go down, this offense would double- and triple-down on the passing game rather than give Blue the vacated volume.
That said, he’s still just one injury away from the lead role in an offense that needs to put points on the board to keep this team competitive.
Jaylen Warren | PIT
Kaleb Johnson didn’t touch the field on Thursday night, and Jaylen Warren held a 4-to-1 touch edge over Kenneth Gainwell. I think any concerns about whose backfield this is when fully healthy are gone.
I’ll complain as much as anyone about the structure of this Pittsburgh offense, but it fits Warren, and that’s all that matters (15+ expected PPR points in three of his past four games, the exception being his first game back from injury).
With a 15+ yard touch in four of five games this season, he’s the one Steeler I trust to offer consistent upside. Sadly, he doesn’t get to face the Steelers every week.
Week 7 Rushing Profile
- 2.2 yards per carry before contact (season-high)
- 100% gain rate (first six weeks: 77.8%)
- 25% 10+ yard gain rate (first six weeks: 7.4%)
The Packers offer a much different challenge, but not nearly enough to put Warren’s status as a lineup lock in jeopardy. He’s hauled in 17-of-19 targets this season as part of an overly conservative offense that is happy to supplement some of his carries with checkdowns and designed quick hitters.
Warren is a top 15 running back for me this week and checks in as such for the remainder of this fantasy season as well.
Jeremy McNichols | WAS
Quality over quantity.
Jeremy McNichols played 21 snaps and ran 13 routes, not impressive usage, but not all that far off from what bellcow Jacory Croskey-Meeritt tallied in Dallas (33 and 16, respectively).
The 10-touch difference, however, is all we truly care about. It’s clear the Commanders trust JCM to carry the mail, and with McNichols more slotted as an “in case of emergency” option in the pass game, there’s no real reason to hold.
Chris Rodriguez looms, and he’s actually the reason I don’t think McNichols is worth stashing. The idea of a handcuff is fine this time of year, but I’m not confident that McNichols would walk into a 13-16 touch role even if he were elevated to cover an injury.
Jonathan Taylor | IND
If Taylor can repeat the 118 yards of offense that he had against these Titans back in Week 3, he will already be at 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
Add in the double-digit rushing scores, and he will have done something before Halloween that only 11 backs (one of whom was him) accomplished during the entirety of the 2021 season.
Taylor has more 10+ yard runs than attempts that have failed to gain yardage and has five more catches on six fewer targets than he had all of last season (14 games). His combination of power and speed is rare, and with this offense clicking on all cylinders (109 points scored during this three-game winning streak), I’m not sure what defenses are supposed to do.
The schedule will toughen a bit down the stretch, but with two home games to close the fantasy playoffs, it’s not hard to see JT being a fantasy MVP for title teams this winter.
Josh Jacobs | GB
Josh Jacobs now has 50+ rushing yards and multiple rushing scores in three straight games, a streak that, since the beginning of 2004, has only been topped by the great LaDainian Tomlinson (2006).
Not bad for a player who popped up on the injury report late in the process last week with what the team labeled as “illness/calf”.
Things haven’t always been easy for Green Bay this season, but they are in position to compete for an NFC title, and their bellcow back is the driving force behind the offense.
He’s as good a bet for 20+ touches as anyone this side of Christian McCaffrey, and with an 80% catch rate, there’s a level of trust that he has on all downs.
Would I like to see the 3.7 yards-per-carry trend rise? I would, but with the volume and elite conversion rate in scoring situations, I’m not complaining.
Pittsburgh hasn’t faced a rushing attack like this, so I’m not too scared of their reasonable run-stuffing numbers to date. Jacobs isn’t a CMC or Robinson in terms of ceiling output, but I’d argue that his floor is among the five best at the position, and that has him sitting in my top 5 for this week.
Kareem Hunt | KC
Kareem Hunt seems to be trending in the wrong direction for this offense, and that could make him a fantasy roster casualty with time.
We aren’t there yet, but that’s more a product of me wanting to hold onto any shares of this explosive unit than anything. Hunt has seen his carry count decrease in every game this month and hasn’t earned multiple targets in this pass-centric scheme since Week 1.
Pacheco certainly looks healthy, and that is where Kansas City is leaning. Rookie Braxton Smith has also looked good in his limited action. While I’m not reading into the garbage-time production of last week, it’s easy to see a path where Reid tests the limitations of the seventh-round pick in an effort to gain a complete understanding of what he has for the playoffs.
He knows what he has in Hunt. He has a veteran who may not make the spectacular play, but he’ll do what is expected of him. That holds value in real life, but not much in the fantasy space.
Hunt sits easily outside of my top 30 at the position this week, living in the space of the handcuff RBs like Kenneth Gainwell and Isaiah Pacheco.
Kendre Miller | NO
Kendre Miller showed some glimpses of potential in his third NFL season, but the 23-year-old suffered a torn ACL against the Bears over the weekend and thus has his attention turned to next season.
Devin Neal is technically the next man up in this backfield, but the most likely result of this injury is a few more looks for Alvin Kamara and/or Taysom Hill.
In a perfect world, you’re not invested in this rushing attack.
Miller can be dropped in all redraft formats — a bummer for those holding out hope for a trade of Kamara to open up sneaky value in the second half of this season.
Kenneth Gainwell | PIT
Kenneth Gainwell was a week winner in Dublin a few weeks back with Jaylen Warren on the shelf, but it was obvious before the injury — and has been since the RB1 returned — that Arthur Smith is not labeling this a committee.
Warren handled 16 of the 19 RB carries in the upset loss to the Bengals on Thursday night and finished the evening as Pittsburgh’s third leading receiver. This isn’t an explosive offense that can support multiple backs on any consistent basis, thus relegating Gainwell to true handcuff status.
There’s value in holding onto him for now, if for no other reason than Pittsburgh has a few soft matchups heading into the fantasy playoffs. If you feel the roster crunch, I’d target the manager with Warren rostered and see what price is willing to be paid: I can’t imagine it’ll be much, but it should be better than what you can find on your waiver wire.
Nick Chubb | HOU
It’s been a good run for Nick Chubb, but his time on fantasy rosters this season is coming to an end.
Woody Marks out-snapped him 42-18 on Monday night, and this just isn’t the situation for his profile.
Houston struggles to block, and outside of two instances this season where the defense dialed up a blitz and Chubb happened to be designed a carry in the single gap they had (TDs of 25 and 27 yards), this year has been a slog for the 29-year-old (3.49 yards per carry without those two runs).
The Texans are motivated to see what they have in Marks, making this less a committee and more a bell-cow situation. Reasonable minds can disagree if the lead job behind this offensive line is worth anything in the first place, but it’s pretty clear that the job is trending away from Chubb.
Ollie Gordon II | MIA
At this point, I don’t think we can label Ollie Gordon as a great handcuff stash.
Not because the job isn’t his, but because the job might not matter.
Achane’s production is more the product of his individual greatness than the role itself. This offense was a disaster for much of Sunday, and there doesn’t appear to be a short-term answer.
Volume is valuable until it’s not. It would appear that we’ve crossed that threshold in Miami, and that has me looking for upside receivers instead of holding a back like Gordon, who needs an injury to have a prayer at maybe being a low-end flex.
Quinshon Judkins | CLE
Quinshon Judkins reminds me of pre-injury Pacheco in that he simply lives for contact and is confident that, over the course of 60 minutes, he’s going to come out on top.
More often than not, he’s right.
For the season, he ranked fourth among the 40 qualified running backs in yards gained per carry after contact, trailing only Robinson, Williams, and Achane. He found the end zone three times last week against the Dolphins, and on two of those occurrences, Cleveland just snapped him the ball directly.
The combination of hard-nosed running and open-field fluidity is rare. His 46-yard TD sprint in the second quarter last week was his fourth run of 30+, putting him on an impressive list of players to do that in their first six career games since 2000.
The others: Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Achane, and Adrian Peterson.
He gets a tough task this weekend against a Patriots front that hasn’t allowed a running back to clear 13.1 PPR points since Week 2. They are going to sell out to stop this running game, and that scares me off of Judkins in DFS formats, as we haven’t seen Dillon Gabriel connect with him a single time over the past two weeks.
In season-long formats, you’re content with the volume and taking your chances on the Browns getting close to the end zone. If they do, it’s a heavy dosage of their rookie back, and that gives you the RB2 production you’re looking for.
Rachaad White | TB
It’s been very clear that the Buccaneers view Rachaad White as their RB2, a role that is getting plenty of work with Bucky Irving sidelined.
It’s also obvious that White is the limited player he has been in the past. In his three games this month, none of his 41 carries have picked up more than 12 yards (3.5 yards per carry), but he’s caught 11-of-13 targets, and that’s enough for PPR managers.
With Irving set to miss at least one more game, White again slides into the “you don’t have to watch it, but you have to play it” RB2 tier. It’s rarely fun, and I’m generally more in on White in coin flip/underdog spots, but the 14-20 touch role is pretty tough to ignore on a week like this, schedule-wise.
Ray Davis | BUF
Ray Davis found the end zone in Week 6 against the Falcons on one of his two touches.
That last number worries me far more than the random touchdown does to encourage me. The second-year back has totaled just 16 touches this season, and James Cook has run incredibly well for the past 18 months: Davis holds flex-contingent value, but he’s not Tyler Allgeier, where you could reasonably plug him into your lineup in a tough spot.
If that’s your situation, I’d rather take a shot on any of the low-owned receivers in this game: Davis is a player that makes sense for deep teams to hold, not for teams pushing for short-term wins.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
The curious case of Rhamondre Stevenson appears to no longer be a case: he’s simply the lead back on a good offense, whether we like it or not.
He scored a walk-in touchdown in the third quarter as the Titans moved in fear of what Drake Maye was going to do, solidifying a strong day at the office. It was his 14th carry of the afternoon, 13 more than TreVeyon Henderson had at the moment.
Stevenson carried five times on the first drive, ripped off three runs of 8+ yards, and was on his way against one of the worst teams in the sport. He’s now set a season high in snap percentage in consecutive games, and with every win New England earns, the most likely status quo is the name of the game role-wise.
There are ball-security issues and a lack of explosion, but the Patriots have been shouting at us to believe the veteran is the bellcow in this offense, and we have no option left but to bend the knee.
Only time will tell if this is the right move for a team that is chasing playoff dreams, but this is the hand we are being dealt. Stevenson is an easy RB2 in a game that I expect the Patriots to control, and Henderson isn’t close to flex radars despite almost a fifth of the league sitting at home this week.
Rico Dowdle | CAR
Hubbard returned and was the starter in name, but this was a split backfield that saw Rico Dowdle hold a pretty significant edge despite being stuffed on an early fourth-down attempt.
Week 7 Rushing Data
- Dowdle: 88.2% gain rate, 17.6% 10+ yard gain rate, 3.2 YPC after contact
- Hubbard: 71.4% gain rate, 7.1% 10+ yard gain rate, 2.1 YPC after contact
This is a committee situation as long as the coaching staff wants it to be, but the on-field production speaks for itself.
The argument could be made that Hubbard is still the right play. Despite an inferior game, he out-snapped Dowdle, and if the team calls his number again, a healthier version of him could have success against the fourth-worst EPA run defense against running backs this season.
But I’m siding with a dangerous thought: rational coaching. Dowdle shone in two pristine matchups with Hubbard on the shelf and looked better last week. I’ve got him assuming the Hubbard role from last week, in that he gets the first crack, and that might be all it takes.
I rank for mean outcomes, and that has Dowdle half a dozen spots ahead of Hubbard as an RB2 to his teammate’s flex status.
I’m not actively looking to start Panthers in this potential blowout spot, but it’s hard to be picky in a week like this, so if forced, give me Dowdle over Hubbard in Week 8.
RJ Harvey | DEN
In the wild win over the Giants last week, Harvey scored.
He managed to turn six opportunities (carries-plus-targets) into two yards.
I’m not sure Sean Payton knows what he wants out of this backfield when it comes to the passing game (Dobbins, Tyler Badie, and Harvey all ran 14-18 routes), but he’s locked in when it comes to the traditional RB role (105 of 147 RB carries have gone to Dobbins).
This is a 5-2 football team and thus unlikely to make sweeping changes unless their hand is forced. Harvey isn’t off of Payton’s radar and would assume a top 20 ranking if Dobbins (active for 44 of a possible 74 games during his career) were to pick up an injury as the marathon of a season wears on.
Harvey is a very reasonable hold, even if, at the moment, there’s zero chance you’re tempted to flex him (seven or fewer touches in six of seven games).
Saquon Barkley | PHI
Right now, at his current pace, Saquon Barkley needs to average a tick over 50 carries per week to repeat his rushing yardage total from 2024.
I think we can safely rule that one out and chalk one up for regression.
Other than fancy math, there are obvious reasons for his lack of success on the ground. His yards per carry before first contact have dipped from 2.64 a season ago to 0.87 this year, and I don’t care how much talent a player has; that sort of drop is going to come with production problems.
His red zone touch count is also down from 3.9 per game to 2.6, a less obvious hindrance, as you’d assume that with fewer home run plays, there would be more scoring chances in tight.
Not the case.
He’s running into loaded boxes slightly more often, and that certainly has something to do with it, but this is looking more like New York Saquon than anything.
- 2025 Profile: 90.9% of expected points, 0.49 points per carry, 19.0 touches per game
- 2021-23 Profile: 95.8% of expected points, 0.56 points per carry, 19.6 touches per game
That’s concerning, and if last week was an indicator of any kind, defenses are happy to make Jalen Hurts beat them through the air.
If he continues to do it at the rate he did over the weekend, maybe things loosen up and we get a top 5 RB the rest of the way. But as things stand right now, it’s hard to expect that sort of production to reemerge.
Barkley is one of the best in the game in terms of raw talent, so there are likely to be splash games. That said, I do think it’s fair to adjust your reference point: he’s a high-end RB2 on a week-to-week basis (when there aren’t six teams on a bye) more than he is a back who poses a real threat to crack the top spot at the position.
He’s still a lineup lock, and this offense remains good enough to elevate him even if the efficiency isn’t close to what we had hoped. But if you’re circling the trade machine and looking to acquire the former All-Pro, I’d be careful: this advanced profile doesn’t suggest that 2024 numbers are coming back any time soon.
Sean Tucker | TB
If the Buccaneers wanted to get Sean Tucker involved, they would.
Rachaad White continues to be inefficient as a runner, and yet, this coaching staff is making no effort to get Tucker involved (October: 14 touches for 30 yards).
If you rostered Tucker when Irving initially got hurt, it made sense. I’d hold him until you are assured that you have a Week 8 lineup you feel good about. Once that’s the case, feel free to cut ties (Tampa Bay goes on bye in Week 9).
The only reason I suggest holding until you feel good about where things sit for this week is that if there is a script to work in Tucker’s favor, this is it (5.5-point road favorite).
Tony Pollard | TEN
I’m old enough to remember when Tony Pollard was the fresh face behind Elliott in Dallas. The running back that clearly offered more upside than the starter, but had a usage ceiling that capped his ability to truly explode.
Tyjae Spears isn’t there yet, but he’s trending in the direction of being Pollard to Pollard’s Elliott.
It’s not a perfect comparison, given that these skill sets match up a little better, but with a rookie QB under center, it stands to reason that Tennessee could shift usage away from the 28-year-old Pollard sooner rather than later.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 8 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
He hasn’t given them any reason not to, and if that doesn’t change, I fear that we won’t have a top-30 RB before long. Pollard has been held under 3.5 yards per carry in the majority of his games this season (including each of the past two), saving you from complete disaster last weekend with a season-high six grabs.
I lean Spears’ way when it comes to fluidity out of the backfield, and as a massive underdog this week, that’s the skill set I want access to.
I’m actively making excuses to sit Pollard this week.
TreVeyon Henderson | NE
This is a nightmare, but one that we should have seen coming a month ago.
When Mike Vrabel refused to punt on Stevenson after multiple fumbles, we should have known.
Stevenson didn’t run well last week (over 27% of his carries failed to gain yardage for a third straight week). Still, Vrabel’s selective memory is causing our TreVeyon Henderson’s share of the carries to deteriorate week by week.
New England’s lead back was consistently great, but he did pick up 5+ yards on a season-high 38.9% of his Week 7 carries, and I’m willing to wager that those are the only plays Vrabel could recite.
Fight it as much as we want, but this isn’t a committee, and the lead-back duties aren’t open to competition. Stevenson out-snapped Henderson 49-9 against the Titans on Sunday, and it was even worse when the score difference was single digits (37-4).
Entering the season, we thought a committee was the worst-case scenario. Now, I’m fielding questions about whether Henderson even needs to be rostered in redraft leagues.
The answer is yes, but in the same way that Brian Robinson Jr. needs to be rostered: contingent value on an offense with upside.
This talented rookie is well off the weekly flex conversation, and zero signs point to that changing with Drake Maye leading an awfully competitive team.
Tyjae Spears | TEN
Tyjae Spears is coming.
He’s out-snapped Pollard in consecutive games. He continues to show well for himself in the passing game (seven catches on eight targets in those contests), a strong skill to have for a team that is going to be playing from behind with regularity.
The Titans (and the NFL for that matter) largely know what Pollard is. It’s fine, but it’s nothing to build around ,and that is where teams find comfort in the unknown.
Spears might be nothing, but we don’t know that with the level of confidence that we know of Pollard’s limitations, and that makes him my preferred option in this backfield this week and moving forward.
Don’t confuse that with me saying that I’m ranking either as a must-start. That’s not at all the case for a team that has scored 45 points across 12 October quarters.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL
Tyler Allgeier has been unable to carve out a viable niche in this offense, and given the success rate of Bijan Robinson, Atlanta’s RB2 is a handcuff and nothing more.
There’s nothing wrong with that. He has a clear-cut path to fantasy viability, and that’s not the case for the majority of backfields in the NFL. We can address the team concerns should this situation come to light (Atlanta ranks 26th in running back yards gained before contact, leading to the thought that Robinson’s success has more to do with his talent than his situation), but for now, he’s a nice depth piece that holds no standalone value.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
Tracy ripped off a 31-yard touchdown last weekend in Denver in something of a jailbreak defensive scheme, and while that counts, I’m not overreacting to a 9-46-1 stat line.
After missing a pair of games, Tracy has been on the field for just 33.8% of New York’s offensive snaps, while Cam Skattebo continues to prove his worth as a grinder in this Jaxson Dart-led offense.
I expect Tracy to fill a role somewhat like Allgeier’s to Skattebo’s Bijan Robinson. Different skill sets, obviously, but from a usage standpoint, where the lead back is getting in the vast majority of the work and the secondary option does the best he can with the scraps (7-10 touches).
He’s not a fantasy starter, though; like Allgeier, he deserves to be rostered if for no other reason than he is only an injury away from working into our lineups.
Woody Marks | HOU
Turn on the Texans for five minutes and it’ll be clear.
Woody Marks hits the holes like someone is chasing him, while Chubb approaches the line of scrimmage with extreme caution.
There’s a world in which the Le’Veon Bell approach works, but it’s not the world this iteration of Chubb lives i,n and thus, the Texans are starting to pivot.
The rookie out-snapped Chubb 42-18 in the ugly Monday night game against the Seahawks, more than doubling his route and touch count in the process. He carried 10 times for 15 yards.
My confidence in a bona fide talent like Nico Collins is fading in this offense, so sorry if I can’t get excited about Marks. His role development is good to see, but all 15 of those yards last week came after contact, and it looks like the Texans are playing down a man on every snap when it comes to attempting to block the opposition.
I thought, despite all of the injuries, that the 49ers’ defense showed well for itself against the Falcons last week, and while they’ve allowed a running back to clear 17.5 PPR points in four straight games, I’m not comfortable starting Marks unless my hand is very much forced.
I clearly prefer him to Chubb, but I’m playing Allgeier (vs. MIA) over him, even with a lower touch projection.
