Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is in the books, and it seems we’ve already seen the full spectrum of play from the league’s quarterbacks. From lackluster performances to MVP-caliber stat lines, where should fantasy football managers turn as Week 2 approaches?
This second slate begins Thursday night with a matchup between two young stars in Green Bay’s Jordan Love and Washington’s Jayden Daniels. How is each signal-caller expected to perform? Should you start them?
Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh | vs. Seahawks
Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but in an unsustainable way. He finished as fantasy’s seventh-best signal-caller against the Jets while scoring -0.4% of his points with his legs. That’s not really a surprise, but in the year 2025, it’s a dangerous line to walk. How dangerous? Glad you asked.
In Week 1, the other 13 quarterbacks to clear 18 fantasy points saw 40.2% of their points come from rushing. The impact of athleticism at the QB position grows every season, and, spoiler alert, Rodgers isn’t getting more mobile with time.
Aaron + Arthur = match made in heaven?
Rodgers’ under center play action had Jets defenders freezing in their tracks š„¶#NFLTurningPoint on ESPN+ | @LRiddickESPN pic.twitter.com/wJaacoCPXP
ā NFL Films (@NFLFilms) September 10, 2025
I was encouraged by his decision-making, as he got six of his teammates a touchdown or at least four targets. Rodgers is someone you can try to stream in perfect spots, but we have Seattle ranked as an above-average defense, and that has me ranking this future Hall of Famer as my QB22.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay | at Texans
Baker Mayfield was hyped up plenty this offseason, and Emeka Egbuka’s star shining the way it did in his NFL debut makes another top-10 season likely. Even with the rookie impressing, Mayfield averaged just 5.2 yards per pass last week; he simply lucked out with three of his 17 completions resulting in touchdowns.
I love the dimension he adds with his legs (he’s not the most graceful runner, but in terms of watchability, there aren’t five QBs I enjoy watching scramble more). With two vertical threats, I actually think his willingness to take off will dictate how much success he has this season.
This is a difficult matchup, and Mayfield is a touch lower than usual in my rankings (QB12), but you’re clear to start him if he’s your only quarterback.
Bo Nix, Denver | at Colts
Bo Nix is poised for a big season and, like Bengals QB Joe Burrow, I’m not letting a brutal Week 1 move me off of that stance (QB29 with 6.8 fantasy points). When evaluating quarterbacks, I keep it simple.
- Is the talent there?
- Is the system there?
- Are the opportunities there?
I think we got proof of the first two last season, and given that Nix had 48 opportunities last week, I’m not sweating things. Last season, twice did a player have at least 48 opportunities (pass attempts plus rush attempts) and fail to score seven fantasy points.
1) Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Week 17)
2) Daniel Jones (Week 1)
Nix was brutal last week, but that rarely happens, and maybe that matchup with the Titans will prove to be more difficult than we are giving it credit for. Regardless, he gets a Colts defense that I’m not sold on. I know they squashed the Fish last week, but did that teach us anything?
I trust Sean Payton to have this offense clicking sooner rather than later, and the fast track this week is an advantageous spot. He’s my QB9 this week, and I think there’s a chance I’m too low.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco | at Saints
Brock Purdy was far from perfect on Sunday in Seattle, but he completed 74.3% of his passes and had five rush attempts. That’s essentially what we’ve come to expect.
- Career: 16.72 fantasy points per game
- Week 1: 16.78 fantasy points
There are players like this at every position. The types that you can get by with if the rest of your team is strong, but won’t put you on their shoulders. When players like that are in a less-than-optimal situation, however, you’re generally wise to look elsewhere, and that’s the situation we have in San Francisco.
Not only is Purdy himself dealing with various injuries, but Jauan Jennings and George Kittle couldn’t finish Week 1. There may be a temptation to get cute with a Purdy stack, if he plays, in DFS under the premise that he’s facing the Saints at what figures to be a low ownership number, but I’m passing on that front and in all standard leagues.
Bryce Young, Carolina | at Cardinals
I hate being the wet blanket, but I’m just the messenger. All summer, we heard about Bryce Young’s impressive finish to the season, with the prevailing thought being that he’d build on that with rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan added to the mix. On paper, that sounds great. It makes a lot of sense.
What was overlooked, however, was that Young had set an awfully low bar for himself to have that impressive finish. Did he look better? Yes. Good? Eh, not so sure. Sunday’s game was a reminder that he’s to be viewed as a below-average quarterback until we have an extended period of good play — notĀ good by his standards, but good by league standards.
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He completed just 51.4% of his passes in Jacksonville over the weekend and finished the week as our 28th-ranked quarterback by our QBi grading metric. The 40 rushing yards were good to see, and that certainly gives him more potential to excel, but this isn’t a team built to compete at a high level, and he’s yet to prove himself as a talent elevator.
Young is a low-end QB2 in Superflex settings, this week and most weeks. McMillan can get by on volume, and the same goes for Chuba Hubbard, but at the quarterback position, Carolina isn’t going to offer much value to us.
C.J. Stroud, Houston | vs. Buccaneers
C.J. Stroud likely overachieved as a rookie and underachieved last season, making him a tough player to handicap. Fortunately for us, the Texans have made things a little bit easier by struggling to field a competitive offensive line.
For a QB that doesn’t weaponize his legs, those struggles remove any hope of returning consistent value, and I fear that’s Stroud’s 2025 destiny. If you’re interested in Stroud for DFS purposes, all you have to do is consult the projected total.
Fantasy PPG with a projected Total Over 45 Points:
- 2023: 20.4 PPG
- 2024: 11.5 PPG
This week’s total is hovering around 42-43. Nico Collins would have to go absolutely nuts for me to feel bad about ranking Stroud as my QB18 this week, a starter in nothing but superflex situations.
Caleb Williams, Chicago | at Lions
Week 1 was emblematic of what Caleb Williams is right now, no matter who is calling the shots — inconsistent. His first quarter under new HC Ben Johnson was the best of his career, but as the Vikings warmed up to him, he was again all over the place with his decision-making.
The decisions worked in his favor as a rookie in this matchup (five TDs and 590 passing yards), and I think there’s an interesting thread to pull. In those starts, Williams posted an 11.3-yard aDOT, well above his mark against the rest of the league (7.4).
Jared Goff’s aDOT regressed during his time with Ben Johnson, but it wasn’t uncommon to see him challenging more downfield early in the season.
Goff aDOT splits (2022-24):
- September: 7.4 yards
- October: 6.9 yards
- November: 6.6 yards
- December/January: 6.2 yards
Could we see an ultra-aggressive Williams this week? If you believe in that, some DFS exposure is a good idea. The wide range of outcomes has him sitting outside my top-15 this week, but I’ll be tracking him closely. Williams’ versatility and Johnson’s creativity feel like a future cheat code, and I want to be ahead of it if possible.
Cam Ward, Tennessee | vs. Rams
You mean Cam Ward looked like a rookie when facing the defense that graded out as the best in the league for us last season? I’m shocked.
The Rams aren’t a pushover, but they aren’t the Broncos either, making this an interesting evaluation spot. Chris Shula is in his second season as the DC in Los Angeles, but he’s been on this coaching staff since 2017. Over that stretch, eight times a rookie has faced him and thrown 20-plus passes, and only three have reached even 13.5 fantasy points.
Ward is well off of fantasy radars in redraft formats this week, and I don’t see that changing this season.
Dak Prescott, Dallas | vs. Giants
Well, that was an interesting introduction to the 2025 season. “Spit-gate” resulted in Philly DL Jalen Carter being ejected, and in return, Dak Prescott attempted 91.2% of his throws from the pocket against the traditionally disruptive Eagles defense (2024: 84.6%).
That was the good. It allowed him to largely operate on time and didn’t force him into moving in a significant way, something that hasn’t been a major part of his game for a few years now. The bad? He scored just 7.8 fantasy points.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, there were the crippling drops by CeeDee Lamb and a pair of short TD runs for Javonte Williams, but the fact that he can run hot situationally like that and bust for fantasy purposes is noteworthy, if not outright alarming.
I thought he played a reasonably sound game. Prescott looked the way of his All-World receiver with five of his first 11 throws (13 of 33 targets for the night), and that is how a pocket-passer is going to make a living in this game of ours.
That said, I wasn’t overly impressed with the connection shown between him and anyone else on this roster — actively trying to “kill” TE Jake Ferguson with seam throws into traffic was certainly a choice.
I assume much better days are ahead — Prescott went 22-of-27 for 221 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception in his only meeting with these Giants last season. Still, I also expect a regression in the pocket pass rate this week, and that could mitigate any natural growth.
Prescott falls outside of the starting tier of signal-caller for me this week, and that’s likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. Dallas is in Chicago next week, but it would take a lot from him in this matchup to have me going back to him, and then he has matchups with the Packers and Jets.
Daniel Jones, Indianapolis | vs. Broncos
Daniel Jones was great last week, but let’s take a deep breath. The Dolphins might be that bad, and even if they aren’t, the odds of Jones getting two short rushing touchdowns in the same game aren’t great.
Everything came together in the season opener, and if something like that happens for a QB in Week 9, we probably don’t flinch. But because this happened in Week 1, it’s human nature to make a big deal about it.
In that standout performance, the Fins blitzed 54.5% of the time, leaving their underdeveloped secondary vulnerable. Denver was the exact opposite last week, and their secondary is their strength.
The Colts are more talented on the offensive side of the ball than they are given credit for, and that has me believing in Jones as a matchup streamer this season, but that’s as far as I’ll go with it. He’s barely a top-20 QB for me in this spot.
Drake Maye, New England | at Dolphins
Drake Maye was QB18 in terms of fantasy production last week, falling well short of expectations in the loss. We got the good, the bad, and the ugly from the second-year signal-caller, something I expect to be the norm. We saw some back-shoulder throws that looked like a veteran and mistakes that looked a lot like last season.
I think this profile will be fantasy-relevant eventually, but we aren’t there yet. He averaged just 6.2 yards per pass on Sunday, and his longest rush was a mere four yards. There’s a real chance this favorable matchup unlocks him and opens the top-12 conversation back up. For now, I’m taking the cautious approach, sort of.
Maye is my QB13. That felt high when doing it, but Miami is a target, and Maye has rare tools.
Geno Smith, Las Vegas | vs. Chargers
Geno Smith is a professional quarterback who can take what the defense gives him. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it’s really not unique these days.
He was able to pile up the numbers against the Patriots last week because the Raiders couldn’t move the ball even a little on the ground — something that I don’t expect to be a common occurrence this season.
I love that Smith fed TE Brock Bowers or WR Jakobi Meyers 54.5% of his targets. That sort of distribution is how a more pocket-based quarterback will provide value in the right matchup for a depleted fantasy team.
But the Chargers aren’t that matchup-wise, and Week 2 isn’t the time to worry about the waiver wire at the QB position. Vegas gets the Jaguars with a week to prepare in early November and the Cowboys two weeks later. Smith is going to be in the conversation when your options get thinner in the middle of the season, so keep an eye on what he’s doing.
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota | vs. Falcons
It was a slow burn, but J.J. McCarthy finished Week 1 as the 12th-highest-scoring player at the position and realistically checked every box you could ask him to in his NFL debut. The Vikings trailed for much of the game, and things appeared to be coming at him a little fast, but he stayed poised, trusted the Kevin O’Connell system, and got there in the end.
The rushing score showed confidence in his repaired leg, and I was actually impressed by the low target count for WR Justin Jefferson early. It’s easy for any young quarterback to rely on his best playmaker, but McCarthy was making, for the most part, reasonable reads, and that eventually opened up his top target with time.
I think he’s a long shot to return to starting-level production on a short week and again without WR Jordan Addison to help matters, but if he does, he has a chance to move into that weekly conversation.
For the time being, I’m taking a cautious approach and ranking him as QB18. That sounds worse than it is — it’s in the range of Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud, and Jared Goff. I don’t think he’s going to do what Sam Darnold did last season, but I do think this is a system that can help maximize his strengths.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia | at Chiefs
Jalen Hurts looked spry on Thursday night, and that fueled his fantasy value. You’ll see his league-leading 15th multi-rush TD game since 2021 in the box score and assume that the “Hurts Hurt” was in full effect, but neither score was a result of the most unstoppable play in professional sports.
He led the game in rushing (62 yards on 14 carries) and completed 82.6% of his passes against the Micah Parsons-less Cowboys on a banner night. And yet, I was left wanting more.
In the win, just 13% of his throws traveled 10-plus yards downfield (2024: 30.2%). You could argue that Philadelphia didn’t need him to absorb the risk of deeper throws or that this was a result of how Dallas defended him.
You wouldn’t be wrong, but for fantasy purposes, when you have that Eagles receiving tandem, this isn’t exactly the optimal way to go about your business. I’m tracking, not acting. Not yet, at least.
Jalen Hurts is running all over the Cowboys tonight.
š„: @NFL pic.twitter.com/QkFS3PxW0G
ā The Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 5, 2025
Patrick Mahomes’ aDOT has decreased every season, and he’s moved from fantasy GOAT to goat at times, but he obviously doesn’t come in with the built-in rushing equity of Hurts. That said, I have a hard time seeing Hurts live up to his Tier 1 status if this is more than a flash in the pan.
For Week 2 purposes, I’m not sweating it. Hurts has cleared 15 fantasy points in all 12 career games played on extended rest (20-plus points in nine of them, 23.0 PPG), and he just comes preloaded with too many ways to matter.
It’s not always pretty, and I do expect the Chiefs to show better in this contest than they did against Philly in the Super Bowl, but Hurts is a no-brainer start this week, even if a red flag presented itself on Thursday night.
Jared Goff, Detroit | vs. Bears
What came first, the chicken or the egg? And by “chicken” I mean “Jared Goff,” and egg I mean “Ben Johnson.” The fact is that we have no idea.
Sure, last week was Goff’s first game as a Lion without Johnson involved, making it impossible to say who “familiarity” will favor more in this spot: Will Johnson know how to stop Goff, or will Goff know what Johnson views as a weakness and thus plan around it?
What we do know is that Goff had zero issues with this Chicago defense a year ago (two games: 44 completions on 68 attempts for 557 yards, five touchdowns, and zero picks). We also know that the Detroit offensive line just punched the Bears in the mouth, helped them up, and then did it again. Over and over again.
As much credit as I want to give Johnson for the playcalling, I say that without him on the sideline, Goff’s projection is weak. He was not pressured for 65 of those passes, and he systematically picked apart the secondary (50 completions with five touchdowns and 9.3 yards per attempt).
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The Bears couldn’t make him uncomfortable, and that gave the elite talent around him time to shake free. Not deep down field (5.4 aDOT), but Goff was on schedule for nearly every second of those matchups, and that is precisely how a pocket-locked QB returns viable fantasy production in today’s game.
Meanwhile, Chicago brought in Dennis Allen this summer to take over its defense, a savvy move for a franchise that hopes its offense will level up in short order. Allen is a veteran who has worked in enough spots to have me believing that he can scheme around the talent he’s been given, withĀ time.
The Bears ranked 29th in Week 1 pressure rate, and that puts Goff in a spot to bounce back in a big way. If there is a pocket passer I haven’t ranked as a top-12 option this week who crashes the party, he’s my bet.
Jayden Daniels, Washington | at Packers
Isn’t it crazy that we can feel like the Giants did a good job on Jayden Daniels, and he still finishes with over 300 yards of offense? He had 41 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts) and only accounted for one touchdown, but every predictive box was checked. That’s why he is a top-five QB for me this week, even against a tough defense on a quick turnaround.
If he connects on a Terry McLaurin misfire, his stat line balloons, and we are all happy. Relax, it’s coming. He looked plenty comfortable with the new addition of WR Deebo Samuel, and the athleticism in space is just as terrifying as last season. You’re playing Daniels every week, not rostering a backup, and loving the stability on your roster every week.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati | vs. Jaguars
Forget it ever happened — that’s all I got for you. Joe Burrow was QB25 in the Week 1 win over the Browns, and there really wasn’t much he could do about it.
The Bengals had less than 25 minutes of possession, and he completed just 23 passes. Without the mobility boost, 23 passes is never going to get it done, even in an offense with as much upside as Cincinnati’s.
I found it a little odd that five Bengals had multiple targets at halftime on 14 Burrow throws. This team has some talented options, but when Noah Fant, Samaje Perine, and Mike Gesicki are as involved as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, I’ve got an issue.
Last week was a bummer, but you’re going back to the well with all of your Bengals without a second thought. In the event that you need some good news after what is likely a 0-1 start, the second Browns-Bengals game comes in Week 18, after your fantasy season has concluded.
Joe Flacco, Cleveland | at Ravens
The Browns are going to be trailing — this week and for most of the season — so I doubt Week 1 was the last time we get a crazy-volume game from their QB (45 attempts against the Bengals). But as is the case with all of these pocket passers, there just aren’t many ways to weasel into the top-12 producers at the position for any given week.
Flacco completed 31 passes and didn’t sniff lineups in a week where scoring was down across the board. He’s a pro and capable of getting Cleveland’s pass catchers home, but when it comes to valuing himself, you can do better.
Jordan Love, Green Bay | vs. Commanders
Jordan Love is the proper way to get exposure to the Packers’ passing game, and you can’t sell me on something different. He’s maturing before our eyes, and that was evident during the first drive of the season, where he completed a pass to six different players on his way to a touchdown.
The lack of rushing production is standing in his way from being a top-12 asset (QB15 for me this week), especially if he’s lacking a game-breaking receiver. I think you’re safe to label Love as a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy QB, and that will be appealing at points this season.
His range of outcomes isn’t as high as a Bo Nix (athleticism) or a Dak Prescott (alpha WR1), and that makes him a tough player to rank higher than what I have, but some fantasy teams need stability, and I think Love has done enough to be considered that.
Josh Allen, Buffalo | at Jets
Good luck slowing down the machine known as Josh Allen for two consecutive quarters, let alone for four. The Ravens had him on his heels for a bit last week, and before you know it, he’s the week’s top performer at the position.
I’m aware that the Jets are familiar with him by way of playing him twice a year, but why would that matter? Couldn’t you argue that Allen is familiar with them? He’s cleared 20 points in each of his past three games against New York and in seven of his past eight against the division rival.
Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, whatever. DFS managers will have to make that call — I typically lean toward Allen, but I give Jackson the slight edge this week. However, if you have either, you’re sleeping like a baby all week long, knowing you have a chance to win your matchup.
Justin Fields, New York Jets | vs. Bills
No big deal, just a QB2 finish to open the season for a former fantasy asset against his former employer. Justin Fields was great last week, and he takes on a Bills team that is fresh off holding the Ravens and their mobile QB to 40 points. Giddy up.
I’m not sure Fields’s top-10 status will last all season — the passing inconsistencies still worry me, especially if possession counts remain consistently low — but there is no denying just how impactful his legs can be.
The top-four scoring QBs a week ago all saw over 38% of their production come on the ground, and eight of the top-10 saw at least one-third of their points come that way. Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert are the two exceptions, the former of whom had to keep up with Fields.
New York can be a polarizing place, and Fields is a polarizing player in the traditional football community. Still, his status as a fantasy asset is safe as long as he continues to play aggressively and pass efficiently.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers | at Raiders
I was wrong here. I knew Justin Herbert was talented, but I didn’t think there was a chance that, at least in the early going, we would see him unleashed in a way that would allow him to keep up with the second tier of signal-callers. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
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HC Jim Harbaugh spent the summer talking up his QB1, and his playcalling proved that it was much more than lip service. The “Bolts” opened Friday night with three straight dropbacks (two completions and a scramble) and gave Herbert nearly three times as many opportunities (41 pass-plus-rush attempts) as their running backs had carries (16).
The diet was generally the same (the percentage of throws coming in play-action, deep downfield, and on shallow routes were all near copies of what he posted a season ago); there was just more food on his plate, and it wasn’t the result of game script.
Chargers’ Pass Rate Splits:
- When tied or leading in 2024: 52.1%
- When tied or leading in Week 1: 66.1%
Only time will tell if this was a message-sending performance or a flash in the pan, but I tend to believe the former. Herbert gets a Raiders team that he’s carved up for multiple touchdown tosses in six of nine career games (18 career TDs against just two picks) and has a nice preparation edge over because he played the showcase Brazil game last week.
If the balance of power in the AFC West is on the verge of changing, Herbert might be poised to be a weekly starter and much closer to the top than the bottom of that extensive second tier of fantasy quarterbacks.
Kyler Murray, Arizona | vs. Panthers
I like it — a lot. I know it was against the hapless Saints, but a 72.4% completion rate with seven carries is precisely the formula for quarterback successĀ in our game.
For the game, 81% of his passing yards went to either TE Trey McBride or WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Over the course of a long season, that can be concerning, as we are talking about a single point of failure should either get injured, but with the “Cards” favored and both of them healthy, I had a hard time finding seven quarterbacks I like more this week.
I’m not going to give away all of the secrets, but I will say my ownership of him in the DFS streets will be greater than zero percent, and he will be stacked. Maybe double-stacked.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore | vs. Browns
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I understand that the Ravens lost last week and blew a big lead. For fantasy purposes, I couldn’t care less. For 90% of that game, Lamar Jackson was playing chess while Buffalo was playing checkers on the defensive end: 11.0 yards per pass and 13 points scored with his legs.
He’s got multiple touchdown passes without an interception in three of his last four against the Browns, and while Cleveland looked good against Burrow last week, this is simply a different question.
Critics will point to Jackson’s limited volume (19 passes last week), but if defenses can prevent Baltimore from picking up chunks at a time, they will be asked to do more. Jackson is my QB1 this week and has as good a shot as anyone of leading the position in scoring this season, even after Josh Allen went bonkers across from him on Sunday night.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams | at Titans
Matthew Stafford became the second-fastest to 60,000 passing yards last week and is still playing at a high level. That said, it’s not really a high fantasy level.
Without the gift of athleticism, he has to be nearly perfect. I saw enough from the Titans’ defense last week to bet against Stafford having one of those crazy, efficient games (see, Aaron Rodgers Week 1). Understanding that, I do think he may sprinkle in a few top-12 pocket performances this season.
In Week 1, 67.9% of his throws went to either Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. As long as both of those receivers can stay on the field, that at least provides a ramp for Stafford to find himself in the fantasy mix, but I don’t expect that to be the case most weeks. Future Hall of Famer? Yes. Inside my top 20 at the position this week? No.
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta | at Vikings
I was impressed with Michael Penix Jr. last week on his way to a QB10 finish. I thought he showed some poise and guts when it mattered, signs of maturity you don’t always get from these young signal-callers.
More importantly for fantasy managers, he was loading up his elite playmakers with looks.Ā He finished just shy of 300 passing yards despite not having Darnell Mooney active, leading me to believe that there is a QB streamer in this profile when the time calls for it. However, that time isn’t in Minnesota against an aggressive defense before bye weeks kick in.
There’s no reason to hold onto Penix in standard leagues right now, but just keep the name in the back of your mind. When the time comes, you will want to do your homework. Or you’ll want to check back in here; I’ll have plenty to say!
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City | vs. Eagles
The final stat line from Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 against the Chargers was great (258 yards and a touchdown through the air with another 57 yards and a score on the ground), and considering that WR Xavier Worthy left after just three snaps, the fantasy production was nothing short of heroic.
But what does it mean moving forward? Mahomes looked spry, and that’s great, but if opponents have time to prepare for a limited offense around him, there are going to be more spy situations. I was encouraged by HC Andy Reid making good on his preseason promise to take more vertical shots, but I need more creativity.
Mahomes’ Week 1 aDOT Splits:
- When throwing to Tyquan Thornton: 28.8 yards
- When throwing to anyone else: 4.6 yards
If Hollywood Brown can add some juice down the field or Worthy is used (when healthy) as the field stretcher, his profile suggests he can be; we are in a wheels-up situation for Mahomes. Until then, I still have my concerns.
As backwards as this might sound, I think WR Rashee Rice actually saw his value tick up on Friday night. Even if somewhat predictable, those deep shots loosen up coverages, and we have proof that Rice is one of the best short-yardage options in the sport.
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We are still five weeks away from having to worry about it, but if the offense we saw last week is the one he steps into when he returns, Rice is going to flirt with a spot in my top 10 every week.
I’m nervous about Mahomes in this Super Bowl rematch. The Eagles elected not to blitz him at all in the Super Bowl, and the league has neutralized the three-time Super Bowl winner in those situations in recent years.
Mahomes’ Non-Blitzed Stats:
- 2022: 8.3 YPA (12.3 yards per completion)
- 2023: 7.1 YPA (10.6 yards per completion)
- 2024: 6.7 YPA (9.8 yards per completion)
For me, Mahomes is right on the fringes of being playable in average-sized leagues this week, with the Worthy injury having me ranking him just outside of the top 12. Our numbers suggest that Justin Herbert outplayed him on Friday night, and for fantasy purposes, I expect that to be the case this week against the Raiders.
Russell Wilson, New York Giants | at Cowboys
Russell Wilson is past his physical prime, so it really is damning when you realize that he averaged more yards per carry than yards per pass in Washington last week. Following the loss, reports circulated that Wilson’s job security had evaporated after the ugly showing. While he has since been confirmed as the Week 2 starter, it’s clear that the leash is short.
New York went pass-heavy when they had Daniel Jones against the Cowboys last season because they couldn’t move the ball at all on the ground (24 carries for 26 yards with a long run of five whole yards). That meant 40 attempts for Jones, and while that sounds great, he was QB24 for the week (9.5 fantasy points).
That’s about where I stand on Wilson this week, provided he plays the entire game. The volume should help calm the nerves for Malik Nabers’ managers; outside of him, the fate of your fantasy week shouldn’t rely on this mess.
Sam Darnold, Seattle | at Steelers
Sam Darnold understood the assignment. We spent the offseason wondering how much of Kevin O’Connell’s genius scheming contributed to his huge 2024 season, and I think we got our answer on Sunday — lots of it.
Darnold was seemingly well aware of his limitations and decided to force-feed WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. For the game, 82.7% of his passing yards went to his WR1, and that’s all we need. He wasn’t drafted as a fantasy starter in standard setups.
While he may prove himself as an average Superflex option as he acclimates in Seattle, there’s no reason to concern yourself with his stock trajectory right now. The Steelers were lit up by the Jets last week, but what Justin Fields brings to the table is entirely different and thus not impacting how I project Darnold this weekend.
Spencer Rattler, New Orleans | vs. 49ers
Getting 50 opportunities to score fantasy points is a pretty enticing thought — until it’s not. Spencer Rattler had five more completions than Jordan Love had pass attempts and as many rushing attempts as Love had rushing yards: the Packers QB outscored him by 4.4 points. And Love didn’t finish the week as a starter in most formats.
Suppose Rattler can’t pop up in DFS winning lineups with this sort of run out. In that case, I have no interest in tempting fate and going this direction in any capacity — not in a two-QB league, maybe not in a three-QB league — and not in some exotic DFS GPP build that you sell yourself on.
He did put the ball where it needed to be for TE Juwan Johnson on the final drive with the game in the balance, but the play wasn’t finished, and that’s likely to be the case for the majority of 2025 with the Saints.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami | vs. Patriots
Magic is amazing, right? When grandpa first pulls a nickel out of your ear, you’re amazed. You get older, learn how it’s done, and what once rocked your world no longer moves the needle. Then you get onto social media and see these crazy illusionists and card cheats that can seemingly do anything.
Train an algorithm long enough — though I wouldnāt know firsthand — and youāll eventually stumble onto a āhow-toā page for this kind of thing. Thatās when the shine starts to wear off.
That’s far too many words to get into the Tua Tagovailoa thing, but I think you see where I’m going with this. All the bells and whistles looked great when we first saw it, but it’s now stale. The NFL is a sharp league, and they’ve caught up. The “Greatest Show on Surf” is now less entertaining than The Smurfs.
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Tagovailoa shouldn’t be near fantasy lineups right now, not with the depth at the position. He’s traditionally done well in this matchup — in his last three home meetings, he completed 69.5% of passes with eight touchdowns and just one interception — but that’s more of a storytelling note than a predictive one.
I do not doubt that Tagovailoa will catch lightning in a bottle at some point this season. I’m also sure that Darius Slayton will make a few big plays for the Giants, but asking me to pinpoint those occurrences, understanding that the risk outweighs the reward, isn’t a good use of my time.
Pick up a more consistent quarterback, and if you can’t find one, at least roll the dice on someone with mobility in their profile.
Tyler Shough, New Orleans | vs. 49ers
Outside of celebrating his 26th birthday later this month, not having a professional snap under his belt, no fundamental duality, and just three touchdown passes over the final four games of his extended collegiate career (117 attempts), why is everyone so down on Tyler Shough, the 40th overall pick in the NFL Draft this past April?
Sure, there will be garbage time moments for a team that is expected to flirt with the worst record in the league, but to get to that point in the game, things need to go sideways early on.
Rattler averaged 5.8 yards per pass and had more interceptions than touchdowns in his rookie season. The Saints think he has a better chance to give this team a chance to win right now, and they are keeping him atop the depth chart. Yikes.
