Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers (vs. Seahawks)

Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but in an unsustainable way.

He finished as fantasy’s seventh-best signal caller against the Jets while scoring -0.4% of his points with his legs. That’s not really a surprise, but in the year 2025, it’s a dangerous line to walk.

How dangerous?

Glad you asked.

In Week 1, the other 13 quarterbacks to clear 18 fantasy points saw 40.2% of their points come from rushing. The impact of athleticism at the QB position grows every season, and, spoiler alert, Rodgers isn’t getting more mobile with time.

Aaron + Arthur = match made in heaven?

Rodgers’ under center play action had Jets defenders freezing in their tracks 🥶#NFLTurningPoint on ESPN+ | @LRiddickESPN pic.twitter.com/wJaacoCPXP

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) September 10, 2025

I was encouraged by his decision-making, as he got six of his teammates a touchdown or at least four targets. Rodgers is someone you can try to stream in perfect spots, but we have Seattle ranked as an above-average defense, and that has me ranking this future Hall of Famer as my QB22.

Baker Mayfield (at Texans)

Baker Mayfield was hyped up plenty this offseason, and Emeka Egbuka’s star shining the way it did in his NFL debut makes another top-10 season likely.

Even with the rookie impressing, Mayfield averaged just 5.2 yards per pass last week; he simply lucked out with three of his 17 completions resulting in touchdowns.

I love the dimension he adds with his legs (he’s not the most graceful runner, but in terms of watchability, there aren’t five QBs I enjoy watching scramble more). With two vertical threats, I actually think his willingness to take off will dictate how much success he has this season.

This is a difficult matchup, which has Mayfield a touch lower than usual in my rankings (QB12), but you’re clear to start him if he’s your only QB.

Bo Nix (at Colts)

Bo Nix is poised for a big season and, like Joe Burrow, I’m not letting a brutal Week 1 move me off of that stance (QB29 with 6.8 fantasy points).

When evaluating quarterbacks, I keep it simple.

• Is the talent there?
• Is the system there?
• Are the opportunities there?

I think we got proof of the first two last season, and given that Nix had 48 opportunities last week, I’m not sweating things.

Last season, twice did a player have at least 48 opportunities (pass attempts plus rush attempts) and fail to score seven fantasy points:

1) Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Week 17)
2) Daniel Jones (Week 1)

Nix was brutal last week, but it rarely happens, and maybe that matchup with the Titans proves to be more difficult than we are giving it credit for.

Regardless, he gets a Colts defense that I’m not sold on. I know they squashed the Fish last week, but did that teach us anything?

I trust Sean Payton to have this offense clicking sooner rather than later, and the fast track this week is an advantageous spot. He’s my QB9 this week, and I think there’s a chance I’m too low.

Brock Purdy (at Saints)

Brock Purdy was far from perfect on Sunday in Seattle, but he completed 74.3% of his passes and had five rush attempts. That’s essentially what we’ve come to expect.

• Career: 16.72 fantasy points per game
• Week 1: 16.78 fantasy points

There are players like this at every position. The types that you can get by with if the rest of your team is strong, but won’t put you on their shoulders. When players like that are in a less-than-optimal situation, however, you’re generally wise to look elsewhere, and that’s the situation we have in San Francisco.

Not only is Purdy himself dealing with various injuries, but Jauan Jennings and George Kittle couldn’t finish Week 1. There may be a temptation to get cute with a Purdy stack, if he plays, in DFS under the premise that he’s facing the Saints at what figures to be a low ownership number, but I’m passing on that front and in all standard leagues.

Bryce Young (at Cardinals)

I hate being the wet blanket, but I’m just the messenger.

All summer, we heard about Bryce Young’s impressive finish to the season, with the prevailing thought being that he’d build on that with Tetairoa McMillan added to the mix.

On paper, that sounds great. It makes a lot of sense.

What was overlooked, however, was that Young had set an awfully low bar for himself to have that impressive finish. Did he look better? Yes. Good? Eh, not so sure, and Sunday’s game was a reminder that he’s to be viewed as a below-average QB until we have an extended period of good play.

Not good by his standards, but good by league standards.

He completed just 51.4% of his passes in Jacksonville over the weekend and finished the week as our 28th-ranked quarterback by our QBi grading metric.

The 40 rushing yards were good to see, and that certainly gives him more potential to excel in our game. But this isn’t a team built to compete at a high level, and he’s yet to prove himself as a talent elevator.

Young is a low-end QB2 in Superflex settings, this week and most weeks. McMillan can get by on volume, and the same goes for Chuba Hubbard, but at the quarterback position, Carolina isn’t going to offer much value to us.

C.J. Stroud (vs. Buccaneers)

C.J. Stroud likely overachieved as a rookie and underachieved last season, making him a tough player to handicap.

Fortunately for us, the Texans have made things a little bit easier by struggling to field a competitive offensive line. For a QB that doesn’t weaponize his legs, those struggles remove any hope of returning consistent value, and I fear that’s Stroud’s 2025 destiny.

If you’re interested in Stroud for DFS purposes, all you have to do is consult the projected total.

Fantasy PPG with a projected Total Over 45 Points:

• 2023: 20.4 PPG
• 2024: 11.5 PPG

This week’s total is hovering in the 42-43 bucket. Nico Collins would have to go absolutely nuts for me to feel bad about ranking Stroud as my QB18 this week, a starter in nothing but superflex situations.

Caleb Williams (at Lions)

Week 1 was emblematic of what Caleb Williams is right now, no matter who is calling the shots.

Inconsistent.

His first quarter under Ben Johnson was the best of his career, but as the Vikings warmed up to him, he was again all over the place with his decision-making.

The decisions worked in his favor as a rookie in this matchup (five TDs and 590 passing yards), and I think there’s an interesting thread to pull. In those starts, Williams posted an 11.3-yard aDOT, well above his mark against the rest of the league (7.4).

Jared Goff’s aDOT regressed during his time with Ben Johnson, but it wasn’t uncommon to see him challenging more downfield early in the season.

Goff aDOT splits (2022-24):

• September: 7.4 yards
• October: 6.9 yards
• November: 6.6 yards
• December/January: 6.2 yards

Could we see an ultra-aggressive Williams this week? If you believe in that, some DFS exposure is a good idea. The wide range of outcomes has him sitting outside my top 15 this week, but I’ll be tracking him closely.

The versatility of Williams and the creativity of Johnson feel like a future cheat code, and I want to be ahead of it if possible.

Cameron Ward (vs. Rams)

You mean Cameron Ward looked like a rookie when facing the defense that graded out as the best in the league for us last season?

I’m shocked.

The Rams aren’t a pushover, but they aren’t the Broncos either, making this an interesting evaluation spot.

Chris Shula is in his second season as the DC in Los Angeles, but he’s been on this coaching staff since 2017. Over that stretch, eight times a rookie QB has faced him and thrown 20+ passes, and only three of them have reached even 13.5 fantasy points.

Ward is well off of fantasy radars in redraft formats this week, and I don’t see that changing this season.

Dak Prescott (vs. Giants)

Well, that was an interesting introduction to the 2025 season. Spygate resulted in Jalen Carter being ejected, and Dak Prescott attempted 91.2% of his throws from the pocket against the traditionally disruptive Eagles defense (2024: 84.6%).

That was the good. It allowed him to largely operate on time and didn’t force him into moving in a significant way, something that hasn’t been a major part of his game for a few years now.

The bad? He scored just 7.8 fantasy points.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, there were the crippling drops by CeeDee Lamb and a pair of short TD runs for Javonte Williams, but the fact that he can run hot situationally like that and bust for fantasy purposes is noteworthy if not outright alarming.

I thought he played a reasonably sound game. Prescott looked the way of his All-World receiver with five of his first 11 throws (13 of 33 targets for the night), and that is how a pocket passer is going to make a living in this game of ours.

That said, I wasn’t overly impressed with the connection shown between him and anyone else on this roster (actively trying to kill Jake Ferguson with seam throws into traffic was a choice).

I assume much better days are ahead (22/27 for 221 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception in his only meeting with these Giants last season). Still, I also expect a regression in the pocket pass rate this week, and that could mitigate any natural growth.

Prescott falls outside of the starting tier of signal-caller for me this week, and that’s likely to be the case for the foreseeable future (in Chicago next week, but it would take a lot from him in this matchup to have me going back to him and then matchups with the Packers and Jets).

Daniel Jones (vs. Broncos)

Daniel Jones was great last week, but let’s take a deep breath.

The Dolphins might be that bad, and even if they aren’t, the odds of Jones getting two short rushing touchdowns in the same game aren’t great.

Everything came together in the season opener, and if something like that happens for a QB in Week 9, we probably don’t flinch. But because this happened in Week 1, it’s human nature to make a big deal about it.

The ‘Fins blitzed 54.5% of the time in that standout performance, thus leaving their underdeveloped secondary vulnerable.

Denver was the exact opposite last week, and their secondary is their strength.

The Colts are more talented on the offensive side of the ball than they are given credit for, and that has me believing in Jones as a matchup streamer this season, but that’s as far as I’ll go with it.

He’s barely a top-20 QB for me in this spot.

Drake Maye (at Dolphins)

Drake Maye was QB18 in terms of fantasy production last week, falling well short of expectations in the loss.

We got the good, the bad, and the ugly from the second-year signal caller, something I expect to be the norm.

We saw some back-shoulder throws that looked like a veteran, and we saw mistakes that looked a lot like last season.

I think this profile will be fantasy-relevant, but we aren’t there yet. He averaged just 6.2 yards per pass on Sunday, and his longest rush was a mere four yards. There’s a real chance this favorable matchup unlocks him and opens the top-12 conversation back up.

For now, I’m taking the cautious approach, sort of.

Maye is my QB13. That felt high when doing it, but Miami is a target, and Maye has rare tools.

Geno Smith (vs. Chargers)

Geno Smith is a professional quarterback who can take what the defense gives him.

There’s nothing wrong with that, but it’s really not unique these days.

He was able to pile up the numbers against the Patriots last week because the Raiders couldn’t move the ball even a little on the ground, something that I don’t expect to be a common occurrence this season.

What I do love is that Smith fed Brock Bowers or Jakobi Meyers 54.5% of his targets. That sort of distribution is how a more pocket-based quarterback will provide value in the right matchup for a depleted fantasy team.

But the Chargers aren’t that matchup-wise, and Week 2 isn’t the time to worry about the waiver wire at the QB position. Vegas gets the Jaguars with a week to prepare in early November and the Cowboys two weeks later. Smith is going to be in the conversation when your options get thinner in the middle of the season, so keep an eye on what he’s doing.

J.J. McCarthy (vs. Falcons)

It was a slow burn, but J.J. McCarthy finished Week 1 as the 12th-highest-scoring player at the position and realistically checked every box you could ask him to in his NFL debut.

The Vikings trailed for much of the game, and things appeared to be coming at him a little fast, but he stayed poised, trusted the Kevin O’Connell system, and got there in the end.

The rushing score showed confidence in his repaired leg, and I was actually impressed by the low target count for Justin Jefferson early. It’s easy for any young quarterback to rely on his best playmaker, but McCarthy was making, for the most part, reasonable reads, and that eventually opened up his top target with time.

I think he’s a long shot to return to starting-level production on a short week and again without Jordan Addison to help matters, but if he does, he has a chance to move into that weekly conversation.

For the time being, I’m taking a cautious approach and ranking him as QB18. That sounds worse than it is. That’s in the range of Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud, and Jared Goff. I don’t think he’s going to do what Sam Darnold did last season, but I do think this is a system that can help maximize his strengths.

Jalen Hurts (at Chiefs)

Jalen Hurts looked spry on Thursday night, and that fueled his fantasy value. You’ll see his league-leading 15th multi-rush TD game since 2021 in the box score and assume that the “Hurts Hurt” was in full effect, but neither score was a result of the most unstoppable play in professional sports. He led the game in rushing (62 yards on 14 carries) and completed 82.6% of his passes against the Micah Parsons-less Cowboys on a banner night.

And yet, I was left wanting more.

In the win, just 13% of his throws traveled 10+ yards downfield (2024: 30.2%). You could argue that Philadelphia didn’t need him to absorb the risk of deeper throws or that this was a result of how Dallas defended him. You wouldn’t be wrong, but for fantasy purposes, when you have the receiving tandem that the Eagles do, this isn’t exactly the optimal way to go about your business.

I’m tracking, not acting. Not yet, at least.

Patrick Mahomes’ aDOT has decreased every season, and he’s moved from fantasy GOAT to goat at times, but he obviously doesn’t come in with the built-in rushing equity of Hurts. That said, I have a hard time seeing Hurts live up to his Tier 1 status if this is more than a flash in the pan.

For Week 2 purposes, I’m not sweating it. Hurts has cleared 15 fantasy points in all 12 career games played on extended rest (20+ points in nine of them, 23.0 PPG), and he just comes preloaded with too many ways to matter.

It’s not always pretty, and I do expect the Chiefs to show better in this contest than they did against Philly in the Super Bowl, but Hurts is a no-brainer start this week, even if a red flag presented itself on Thursday night.

Jared Goff (vs. Bears)

What came first, the chicken or the egg?

And by “chicken” I mean “Jared Goff,” and egg I mean “Ben Johnson.” The fact is that we have no idea. Sure, last week was Goff’s first game as a Lion that didn’t have Johnson involved, making it impossible to say who “familiarity” will favor more in this spot: will Johnson know how to stop Goff, or will Goff know what Johnson views as a weakness and thus plan around it?

What we do know is that Goff had zero issues with this Chicago defense a year ago (two games: 44 completions on 68 attempts for 557 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions). We also know that the Detroit offensive line just punched the Bears in the mouth, helped them up, and then did it again.

Over and over again.

As much credit as I want to give Johnson for the playcalling and say that without him on the sideline, Goff’s projection is weak, he was not pressured for 65 of those passes and he systematically picked apart the secondary (50 completions with five touchdowns and 9.3 yards per attempt).

The Bears couldn’t make him uncomfortable, and that gave the elite talent around him time to shake free. Not deep down field (5.4 aDOT), but Goff was on schedule for nearly every second of those matchups, and that is precisely how a pocket-locked QB returns viable fantasy production in today’s game.

Chicago brought in Dennis Allen this summer to take over its defense, a savvy move for a franchise that hopes its offense will level up in short order. Allen is a veteran who has worked in enough spots to have me believing that he can scheme around the talent he’s been given.

With time.

The Bears ranked 29th in Week 1 pressure rate, and that puts Goff in a spot to bounce back in a big way. If there is a pocket passer I haven’t ranked as a top-12 option this week who crashes the party, he’s my bet.

Jayden Daniels (at Packers)

Isn’t it crazy that we can feel like the Giants did a good job on Jayden Daniels, and he finishes with over 300 yards of offense?

He had 41 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts) and only accounted for one touchdown, but every predictive box was checked, and that’s why he is a top 5 QB for me this week, even against a tough Packers defense on a quick turnaround.

If he connects on a Terry McLaurin misfire, his stat line balloons, and we are all happy.

Relax, it’s coming.

He looked plenty comfortable with the new addition of Deebo Samuel, and the athleticism in space is just as terrifying as it was last season.

You’re playing Daniels every week, not rostering a backup, and loving the stability on your roster every week.

Joe Burrow (vs. Jaguars)

Forget it ever happened.

That’s all I got for you.

Joe Burrow was QB25 in the Week 1 win over the Browns, and there really wasn’t much he could do about it.

The Bengals had less than 25 minutes of possession, and he was able to get off just 23 passes. Without the mobility boost, 23 passes is never going to get it done, even in an offense with as much upside as Cincinnati.

I found it a little odd that five Bengals had multiple targets at halftime on 14 Burrow throws. This team has some talented options, but when Noah Fant, Samaje Perine, and Mike Gesicki are as involved as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, I’ve got an issue.

Last week was a bummer, but you’re going back to the well with all of your Bengals without a second thought.

In the event that you need some good news after what is likely a 0-1 start, the second Browns/Bengals game comes in Week 18, after your fantasy season has concluded.

Joe Flacco (at Ravens)

The Browns are going to be trailing (this week and for most of the season), so I doubt Week 1 was the last time we get a crazy volume game from their QB (45 attempts against the Bengals).

But as is the case with all of these pocket passers, there just aren’t many ways to weasel into the top-12 producers at the position for any given week.

Flacco completed 31 passes and didn’t sniff lineups in a week where scoring was down across the board. He’s a pro and capable of getting Cleveland’s pass catchers home, but when it comes to valuing himself, you can do better.

Jordan Love (vs. Commanders)

Jordan Love is the proper way to get exposure to the Packers’ passing game, and you can’t sell me on something different.

He’s maturing before our eyes, and that was evident during the first drive of the season, where he completed a pass to six different players on his way to a touchdown.

The lack of rushing production is standing in his way from being a top-12 asset (QB15 for me this week), especially if he’s lacking a game-breaking receiver. I think you’re safe to label Love as a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy QB, and that will be appealing at points this season.

His range of outcomes isn’t as high as a Bo Nix (athleticism) or a Dak Prescott (alpha WR1), and that makes him a tough player to rank higher than what I have, but some fantasy teams need stability, and I think Love has done enough to be considered that.

Josh Allen (at Jets)

Good luck slowing down the machine known as Josh Allen for two consecutive quarters, let alone for four.

The Ravens had him on his heels for a bit last week, and before you know it, he’s the week’s top performer at the position.

I’m aware that the Jets are familiar with him by way of playing him twice a year, but why would that matter? Couldn’t you argue that Allen is familiar with them?

He’s cleared 20 points in each of his past three games against New York and in seven of his past eight against the division rival.

Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. Whatever. DFS managers will have to make that call (I typically lean toward Allen, but give Jackson the slight edge this week); however, if you have either, you’re sleeping like a baby all week long, knowing you have a chance to win your matchup.

Justin Fields (vs. Bills)

No big deal, just a QB2 finish to open the season for a former fantasy asset against his former employer.

Justin Fields was great last week, and he takes on a Bills team that is fresh off holding the Ravens and their mobile QB to 40 points.

Giddy up.

I’m not sure the top-10 status will last all season for Fields; the passing inconsistencies still worry me, especially if possession counts remain consistently low. But there is no denying just how impactful his legs can be.

The top-four scoring QBs a week ago all saw over 38% of their production come on the ground, and eight of the top-10 saw at least one-third of their points come that way (Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert being the two exceptions, the former of whom had to keep up with Fields).

New York can be a polarizing place, and Fields is a polarizing player in the traditional football community. Still, his status as a fantasy asset is safe as long as he continues to play aggressively and pass efficiently.

Justin Herbert (at Raiders)

I was wrong here.

I knew Justin Herbert was talented, but I didn’t think there was a chance that, at least in the early going, we would see him unleashed in a way that would allow him to keep up with the second tier of signal callers.

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

Jim Harbaugh spent the summer talking up his QB1, and his playcalling proved that it was much more than lip service. The Bolts opened Friday night with three straight dropbacks (two completions and a scramble) and gave Herbert nearly three times as many opportunities (41 pass-plus-rush attempts) as their running backs had carries (16).

The diet was generally the same (the percentage of throws coming in play-action, deep downfield, and on shallow routes were all near copies of what he posted a season ago); there was just more food on his plate, and it wasn’t the result of game script.

Chargers’ pass rate splits:

• When tied or leading in 2024: 52.1%
• When tied or leading in Week 1: 66.1%

Only time will tell if this was a message-sending performance or a flash in the pan, but I tend to believe the former. Herbert gets a Raiders team that he’s carved up for multiple touchdown tosses in six of nine career games (career: 18 touchdowns against just two interceptions) and has a nice preparation edge over as a result of playing the showcase Brazil game last week.

If the balance of power in the AFC West is on the verge of changing, Herbert might be poised to be a weekly starter and much closer to the top than the bottom of that extensive second tier of fantasy quarterbacks.

Kyler Murray (vs. Panthers)

I like it. I like it a lot.

I know it was against the hapless Saints, but a 72.4% completion percentage with seven carries is precisely the formula it takes to succeed at the QB position in our game.

For the game, 81% of his passing yards went to either Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison. Over the course of a long season, that can be concerning, as we are talking about a single point of failure should either get injured, but with the Cards favored and both of them healthy, I had a hard time finding seven quarterbacks I like more this week.

I’m not going to give away all of the secrets, but I will say my ownership of him in the DFS streets will be greater than zero percent, and he will be stacked.

Maybe double-stacked.

Lamar Jackson (vs. Browns)

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I understand that the Ravens lost last week and blew a big lead.

For fantasy purposes, I couldn’t care less.

For 90% of that game, Lamar Jackson was playing chess while Buffalo was playing checkers on the defensive end: 11.0 yards per pass and 13 points scored with his legs.

He’s got multiple touchdown passes without an interception in three of his last four against the Browns, and while Cleveland looked good against Joe Burrow last week, this is simply a different question.

Critics will point to Jackson’s limited volume (19 passes last week), but if defenses can prevent Baltimore from picking up chunks at a time, they will be asked to do more.

Jackson is my QB1 this week and has as good a shot as anyone of leading the position in scoring this season, even after Josh Allen went bonkers across from him on Sunday night.

Matthew Stafford (at Titans)

Matthew Stafford became the second fastest to 60,000 passing yards last week and is still playing at a high level.

That said, it’s not really a high fantasy level.

Without the gift of athleticism, he has to be nearly perfect. I saw enough from the Titans’ defense last week to bet against Stafford having one of those crazy, efficient games (see, Aaron Rodgers Week 1).

Understanding that, I do think he may sprinkle in a few top-12 pocket performances this season. In Week 1, 67.9% of his throws went to either Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. As long as both of those receivers can stay on the field, that at least provides a ramp for Stafford to find himself in the fantasy mix, but I don’t expect that to be the case most weeks.

Future Hall of Famer? Yes. Inside my top 20 at the position this week? No.

Michael Penix Jr. (at Vikings)

I was impressed with Michael Penix Jr. last week on his way to a QB10 finish. I thought he showed some poise and guts when it mattered, signs of maturity you don’t always get from these young signal callers.

More importantly for fantasy managers, he was loading up his elite playmakers with looks. He finished just shy of 300 passing yards despite not having Darnell Mooney active, leading me to believe that there is a QB streamer in this profile when the time calls for it.

That time isn’t in Minnesota against an aggressive defense before bye weeks kick in.

There’s no reason to hold onto Penix in standard leagues right now, but just keep the name in the back of your mind: when the time comes, you’re going to want to do your homework.

Or you’ll want to check back in here; I’ll have plenty to say!

Patrick Mahomes (vs. Eagles)

The final stat line from Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 against the Chargers was great (258 yards and a touchdown through the air with another 57 yards and a score on the ground), and considering that Xavier Worthy left after just three snaps, the fantasy production was nothing short of heroic.

But what does it mean moving forward?

Mahomes looked spry, and that’s great, but if opponents have time to prepare for a limited offense around him, there are going to be more spy situations. I was encouraged by Andy Reid making good on his preseason promise to take more vertical shots, but I need more creativity.

Mahomes’ Week 1 aDOT splits:

• When throwing to Tyquan Thornton: 28.8 yards
• When throwing to anyone else: 4.6 yards

If Hollywood Brown can add some juice down the field or Worthy is used (when healthy) as the field stretcher, his profile suggests he can be; we are in a wheels-up situation for Mahomes. Until then, I still have my concerns.

As backwards as this might sound, I think Rashee Rice actually saw his value tick up on Friday night. Even if somewhat predictable, those deep shots loosen up coverages, and we have proof that Rice is one of the best short-yardage options in the sport. We are still five weeks away from having to worry about it, but if the offense we saw last week is the one he steps into when he returns, Rice is going to flirt with a spot in my top 10 every week.

As for Mahomes in this Super Bowl rematch, I’m nervous. The Eagles elected not to blitz him at all in the Super Bowl, and the league has neutralized #15 in those situations in recent years.

Mahomes’ non-blitzed stats:

• 2022: 8.3 YPA (12.3 yards per completion)
• 2023: 7.1 YPA (10.6 yards per completion)
• 2024: 6.7 YPA (9.8 yards per completion)

For me, Mahomes is right on the fringes of being playable in average-sized leagues this week, with the Worthy injury having me ranking him just outside of the top 12. Our numbers suggest that Justin Herbert outplayed him on Friday night, and for fantasy purposes, I expect that to be the case this week (at Raiders).

Russell Wilson (at Cowboys)

Russell Wilson is past his physical prime, so it really is damning when you realize that he averaged more yards per carry than yards per pass in Washington last week.

Reports circulated following the 21-6 loss that Wilson’s job security had evaporated after the ugly performance. While he has since been confirmed as the Week 2 starter, it’s clear that the leash is short.

New York went pass-heavy when they had Daniel Jones against the Cowboys last season because they couldn’t move the ball at all on the ground (24 carries for 26 yards with a long run of five whole yards).

That meant 40 attempts for Jones, and while that sounds great, he was QB24 for the week (9.5 fantasy points). That’s about where I stand on Wilson this week, provided he plays the entire game. The volume should help calm the nerves for Malik Nabers’ managers; outside of him, the fate of your fantasy week shouldn’t rely on this mess.

Sam Darnold (at Steelers)

Sam Darnold understood the assignment.

We spent the offseason wondering how much his huge 2024 season was the result of genius scheming from Kevin O’Connell, and I think we got our answer on Sunday.

Lots of it.

Darnold was seemingly well aware of his limitations and decided to force-feed Jaxon Smith-Njigba. For the game, 82.7% of his passing yards went to his WR1, and that’s all we need.

Darnold wasn’t drafted as a fantasy starter in standard setups. While he may prove himself as an average Superflex option as he acclimates in Seattle, there’s no reason to concern yourself with his stock trajectory right now.

The Steelers were lit up by the Jets last week, but what Justin Fields brings to the table is entirely different and thus not impacting how I project Darnold this weekend.

Spencer Rattler (vs. 49ers)

Getting 50 opportunities to score fantasy points is a pretty enticing thought.

Until it’s not.

Spencer Rattler had five more completions than Jordan Love had pass attempts and as many rushing attempts as Love had rushing yards: the Packers QB outscored him by 4.4 points.

And Love didn’t finish the week as a starter in most formats.

If Rattler can’t pop up in DFS winning lineups with this sort of run out, I have no interest in tempting fate and going this direction in any capacity. Not in a two-QB league (maybe not in a three-QB league!) and not in some exotic DFS GPP build that you sell yourself on.

He did put the ball where it needed to be for Juwan Johnson on the final drive with the game in the balance, but the play wasn’t finished, and that’s likely to be the case for the majority of 2025 with the Saints.

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. Patriots)

Magic is amazing, right?

When grandpa first pulls a nickel out of your ear, you’re amazed. You get older, learn how it’s done, and what once rocked your world no longer moves the needle.

Then you get onto social media and see these crazy illusionists and card cheats that can seemingly do anything.

Train an algorithm long enough — though I wouldn’t know firsthand — and you’ll eventually stumble onto a “how-to” page for this kind of thing. That’s when the shine starts to wear off.

That’s far too many words to get into the Tua Tagovailoa thing, but I think you see where I’m going with this.

All the bells and whistles looked great when we first saw it, but it’s now stale. The NFL is a sharp league, and they’ve caught up. The Greatest Show on Surf is now less entertaining than The Smurfs (shoutout to people of a certain age who remember those goofy blue guys).

Tagovailoa shouldn’t be near fantasy lineups right now, not with the depth at the position. He’s traditionally done well in this matchup (last three home meetings: 69.5% complete with eight touchdowns and just one interception), but that’s more of a storytelling note than a predictive one.

I do not doubt that Tagovailoa will catch lightning in a bottle at some point this season. I’m also sure that Darius Slayton will make a few big plays for the Giants, but asking me to pinpoint those occurrences, understanding that the risk outweighs the reward, isn’t a good use of my time.

Pick up a more consistent quarterback, and if you can’t find one, at least roll the dice on someone with mobility in their profile.

Tyler Shough (vs. 49ers)

Outside of celebrating his 26th birthday later this month, not having a professional snap under his belt, no fundamental duality, and just three touchdown passes over the final four games of his extended collegiate career (117 attempts), why is everyone so down on Tyler Shough, the 40th overall pick in the NFL Draft this past April?

Sure, there will be garbage time moments for a team that is expected to flirt with the worst record in the league, but to get to that point in the game, things need to go sideways early on.

Spencer Rattler averaged 5.8 yards per pass and had more interceptions than touchdowns in his rookie season – the Saints think he has a better chance to give this team a chance to win right now and are keeping him atop the depth chart.

Yikes.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. (vs. Falcons)

Beauty is very much in the eye of the beholder.

On one hand, Aaron Jones’ usage in the passing game during J.J. McCarthy’s NFL debut was borderline special. His three targets won’t jump off the screen at you, but that’s a 15% share, and he was even more impactful in that regard than the box score suggests.

His touchdown came on a pass that traveled 25 yards in the air, the longest target by a running back for the week. That alone is an encouraging sign when it comes to what Kevin O’Connell believes is possible with this unit, but don’t forget that he caused a 42-yard DPI penalty earlier in the game.

Sure, he averaged under three yards per carry against the Bears, but the upside stands to be rare if his route-running savvy is leveraged on a consistent basis like it was Monday.

On the other hand, the floor could easily fall out. Jordan Mason nearly doubled him in rush attempts (15-8), clearly had more juice, and handled every red zone snap. As exciting as the big plays in the pass game were, the meat-and-potatoes of holding weekly value as a running back were missing.

The Falcons had the best after-contact defense in Week 1, which has me thinking that Minnesota will again struggle to run the ball. Your willingness to flex Jones this week sits with your willingness to believe his outlier targets are sustainable.

This situation, for me, is identical to the one in Seattle. I have the incumbent ranked slightly higher, but neither is within my top 25 at the position, and both favor stable receivers if given the choice.

Alvin Kamara (vs. 49ers)

You’re going to have a hard time convincing me that Alvin Kamara makes it through all of 2025 as a locked-in fantasy starter.

His 18-yard touchdown run early in the second quarter was impressive and cost me my “will not score” bets, but I’d make them again. Outside of that Herculean effort, he had 12 touches for 39 yards.

The versatility is a nice floor elevator, but where is the ceiling going to come from? Scoring opportunities are going to be few and far between, and that’s before I mentioned that Kendre Miller got the first carry of New Orleans’ second drive last week.

Kamara was on my do-not-draft list, so I don’t have a great feel for what offers look like around him (check out our trade tool for help in that regard), but if you can recoup 90% of what you spent on draft day, I’d take that offer to the bank.

Ashton Jeanty (vs. Chargers)

There is something to be said for the rookie jitters, but that’s not what Week 1 was for the Raiders.

They just lack high-end talent around their two star players, and that was abundantly clear.

Against the Patriots, a defense that we are lukewarm on at best, 115.8% of Jeanty’s rushing yards came after contact.

That’s not a typo.

The touchdown showcased his ability to run hard and through arm tackles, but maybe we work a little harder to get him into space? You know, give him a chance to succeed? Please?

We believe him to be a generational talent, yet he failed to gain yardage on eight of his 19 carries on Sunday. That 42.1% clip ranked him 660th of 662 RBs with at least that much work in a game since 2020.

That’s not a Jeanty problem, but it will be a problem for Jeanty managers if it doesn’t get cleared up sooner rather than later.

The Chargers allowed Chiefs not named Mahomes to pick up just 41 yards on 11 carries last week and have had plenty of time to build out a game plan that exploits Las Vegas’ weaknesses.

I’m not overly optimistic that we get any sort of breakout performance this week, but his featured role is safe, and his talent is undeniable. That makes him an easy start, even if the house around him is at risk of burning down.

Austin Ekeler (at Packers)

Austin Ekeler ran 19 of Washington’s 31 running back routes against the Giants, and that sort of feels like his niche in this offense, especially if this version of Deebo Samuel sticks.

That exact role can be streamable in times of desperation, but the fact that Jeremy McNichols accounted for their two RB red zone routes run is concerning. Ekeler caught all of his targets, but a game in which 80% of their offensive snaps come with a lead isn’t optimal.

Ekeler’s impact in the fantasy space, outside of a content contributor, is that of an annoyance to Bill Crosby-Merritt managers. I’d love to be more optimistic about his potential to sneak into the flex conversation, but I just don’t see it happening on a team this good.

If Ekeler is currently on your waiver wire, I’m not pouncing. My interest may increase when we approach the bye week season, but not a moment sooner.

Bhayshul Tuten (at Bengals)

The idea of Bhayshul Tuten was never that of a September superhero, it was that of a winter warrior.

That train of thought remains the same for Jaydon Blue in Dallas.

He got a little bit of red zone work in Week 1, but that was more the result of Travis Etienne being gassed after a 71-yard gain. Again akin to the Cowboys, Travis Etienne followed the Javonte Williams path and dominated a backfield we believed to be murky.

Now that I talk this through, I think that Week 1 should be viewed as a blessing for those with Tuten rostered. There is now nothing pushing you to consider taking on significant risk and playing him early in the season, and Etienne is getting a lot of mileage on his tires.

You wouldn’t throw out your tomato plant if it didn’t grow in the first three days you had it, would you? You’d give it the growing season, hoping that your investment pans out with time, right?

Tomato Tuten should remain stashed in all formats as we wait for Liam Coen to water the plant he hand-picked.

Bijan Robinson (at Vikings)

The beauty in these elite talents is that one touch can impact your box score more than a dozen ineffective ones.

Bijan Robinson was the first player to score on Sunday with a 50-yard catch-and-run, making his Week 1 an effective one even if none of his 12 carries gained more than six yards in what we believed to be a plus-matchup.

Better days are ahead in terms of consistency, that much we know. The fact that he was able to return top-10 value at the position on what will likely be his worst rushing performance of the year means you dodged a bullet.

Robinson was my 1.01 this summer, and I feel even better about that assertion now.

The Vikings are a big, bad bully when it comes to their style of play. They blitz to set up the blitz and then blitz some more. We’ve all seen this style work in various competitive atmospheres – the most aggressive card player can control the table, and NBA teams that lean most into launching triples have an unmatched ceiling.

But what happens when the opponent has a counterpunch that hits harder than the pressing strategy?

Nothing good for the defense, that’s what.

During his first two seasons, Robinson gained yardage on 84.9% of carries against loaded boxes (qualified RB average: 77.7%) and ripped off gains of 5+ yards 30.2% of the time. You’re never benching Atlanta’s alpha male, and I think he has every chance to allow the Dirty Birds to dictate this game on the road under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football.

Braelon Allen (vs. Bills)

As draft season wore on, we talked ourselves into this Jets backfield being a committee and that seemed to be the plan.

Early rush splits:

• Breece Hall: 6 carries, 40 yards
• Justin Fields: 4 carries, 28 yards
• Braelon Allen: 4 carries, 9 yards, TD
• Isaiah Davis: 1 carry, 3 yards

New York was leaning in his favor for the short-yardage work, and that’s what we wanted to see, but we were expecting more.

When all was said and done, he played just 19 snaps (30.6% share) and, given the duality of Fields, that’s not nearly enough to get him into the flex conversation. Add in the fact that Hall showed the promise that made him a foundational dynasty piece not long ago, and the ship may have sailed on Allen’s standalone value.

Maybe Hall falls flat with time, but his 107 rushing yards on Sunday bought him some time. This matchup doesn’t scare me, and, to be honest, neither do the next three (Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Cowboys). This is Hall’s backfield to control, and I fully expect him to hold serve through the first half of the season at the very least.

Handcuff running backs have value, and Allen is that, but I’d very much caution against the thought that you have flex depth with him as long as Hall is active.

Breece Hall (vs. Bills)

On Sunday, Breece Hall gained more yards after contact than the NFL average on 84.2% of his rush attempts (career rate: 63.3%), showing a level of burst that we thought we might get from Braelon Allen in a committee situation.

It was good to see, and enough for me to bump him back into the lineup lock section of my ranks.

How do you see this game playing out?

Hall produced 169 yards on 23 touches in the first meeting with the Bills last season, a game that was decided by a field goal. The second meeting was a 26-point blowout and saw Hall touch the ball just 11 times (6.3 PPR points).

The longer the Jets can keep this thing competitive, the better the chances are of Hall cracking the top 10 at the position. There is a floor to consider here, given the spread and the potential for Justin Fields to do things himself on the ground game, but I’m taking the glass-half-full approach and am comfortable in labeling him as a stable RB2 in all formats.

Brian Robinson Jr. (at Saints)

In his debut with the 49ers, Brian Robinson Jr. established himself as the clear RB2 in this offense. Still, like so many before him, he was zero threat to the usage of even a reportedly semi-hobbled Christian McCaffrey.

If you’re just scanning through box scores, 10 touches for B-Rob might seem like a player with standalone value potential. But given that McCaffrey handled 31 touches, Robinson’s involvement was pretty clearly viewed as a way to get CMC a breather, not as a way to plan to change the pace of the offense.

There’s value in the role of Robinson, especially if you believe in the dark cloud hanging over San Francisco with their skill position players dropping like flies. If I roster Robinson, I’m viewing Week 1 as a net win: any temptation to consider him as a flex play has vanished.

Bucky Irving (at Texans)

The Bucs elected to get cute with their offensive line ahead of kickoff, inserting Michael Jordan as a starter at guard and shuffling a few other pieces around.

Was that the reason that Bucky Irving, maybe one of the five most electrifying backs in this game, averaged just 2.6 yards per carry?

They get a tough test against a stout Texans defense this week, but I’m cautiously optimistic that the line looks better in Week 2.

Like some of his other friends in the top two tiers of the fantasy RB hierarchy, Irving was able to save the day as a pass catcher, extending for the pylon after a Baker Mayfield dump-off pass that only he can find a way to get into the end zone.

You’ll notice a theme with the RB1s that couldn’t find a groove on the ground in Week 1: I’m not the least bit concerned.

Cam Skattebo (at Cowboys)

This is a prime example of the impact of expectations.

Did you draft Cam Skattebo with the thought that you’d have New York’s bellcow by midseason?

If so, you’re probably underwhelmed. There was no room cleared for Giant running backs against Washington on Sunday as the trio picked up just 30 yards on 15 carries.

Did you draft Cam Skattebo with the thought that you had a handcuff that might have value if the lead role falls into his lap?

If so, you’re fine with the ugly Week 1 from this offense. Russell Wilson didn’t exactly get a vote of confidence immediately following the loss, but his leash appears to be short and the moment they close that chapter, movement toward the 2025 draft class feels inevitable (Skattebo: 2025 fourth-round selection).

Skattebo played seven snaps on Sunday, and that trailed Devin Singletary. That’s not ideal, but if you were pulling the ripcord this fast, you made a mistake at the draft.

Chase Brown (vs. Jaguars)

The Bengals’ underachieving in early September is becoming an odd trend, and Chase Brown was unable to avoid it last week against the Browns (Week 1: RB22).

Don’t care.

The Bengals have more than enough equity built up in the fantasy space to excuse a single bad week against an above-average defense that they share a division with.

His four best performances during his breakout 2024 season came in Cincinnati victories, and with the home team favored by 3.5 points, the wise guys are expecting a W in this spot (as am I!).

I was pitching Brown as a fringe RB1 this summer, and I think he’s better than that this week (RB7). We may look back in four months and realize that his worst game of the season came at the best time: Week 1.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (at Packers)

Chris Rodriguez Jr. was a healthy scratch last weekend against the Giants, and while I don’t expect that to be the case most weeks, it speaks to how the team views him.

Following the Brian Robinson trade, there was speculation that Rodriguez, a 25-year-old who has averaged 4.9 yards per carry on his 86 attempts as a pro, could work his way into a competition with Bill Corsky-Merritt for the two-down role.

That’s pretty clearly something we don’t have to sweat right now, and that means C-Rod doesn’t need to be rostered in any format.

Christian McCaffrey (at Saints)

I don’t know about you, but Christian McCaffrey’s calf looked like the healthiest calf on planet earth last Sunday after 48 hours of consistent speculation about what the star would bring to the table for San Francisco’s opener.

Now, he’s the only 49er without health concerns, or so it seems.

Last week was CMC’s third career game with 20+ carries and 10+ targets, and it’s not crazy to think he could add to that total in this spot.

The Saints allowed 2.15 yards per carry to opposing running backs last season, a poor mark that reflects a lack of improvement after finishing bottom-5 in that metric a year ago.

They might prevent McCaffrey from reaching 30 touches this week by letting the end zone get in the way.

We said it last week, I’ll say it next week, and likely until he hangs them up: if you’re brave enough to draft McCaffrey, you have the stones to play him anytime he graces the field, no matter the number of red flags.

Chuba Hubbard (at Cardinals)

Chuba Hubbard finished Week 1 as the eighth-highest scoring running back, a stat line that was inflated by a 27-yard touchdown grab that is difficult to count on (54.2% of his production for the week).

That said, he remains a consistent source of volume, and by holding a 40-22 snap edge over Rico Dowdle in their first game as teammates, I think we can count on another high usage, low excitement season from Carolina’s bellcow.

Eat your vegetables and start Hubbard as your RB2.

D’Andre Swift (at Lions)

D’Andre Swift was about as involved as we could have asked for on Monday night (20 touches), and I expect that to be sustained as Ben Johnson works his magic to build an efficient offense.

I worry that none of those touches gained more than 13 yards, and that we could well see that be a consistent issue as well.

Johnson’s quick strike attack is mathematically sound, but it’s logistically elite when paired with the talent in Detroit. Keep the system and change the pieces, and the results will change, right?

The Houston Rockets have based their offense on what worked for the peak Golden State Warriors, and while they have their moments, they lack Stephen Curry, so their ceiling isn’t the same.

The lead back in an offense that I think clears 20 points this week has a low-end RB2 floor in my ranks, and that is where I’ve penciled in Swift (along with Alvin Kamara and Javonte Williams as a point of reference). The Lions were gashed by the Packers last week, but they did cough up just 0.58 yards per carry before first contact to Josh Jacobs, and if they can do that to Swift, his final stat line could be underwhelming despite the safe volume.

David Montgomery (vs. Bears)

Detroit running backs simply had nowhere to go on Sunday, and with the game trending away from them, the Packers were able to pin their ears back.

That situation didn’t present itself last season, and while I don’t think it’s going to be the status quo in 2025, it’s hard not to be at least a little concerned with it happening in Week 1.

As a collective, Lion RBs picked up 3.6 yards per carry before contact when running at Micah Parsons and company. That’s never going to let a semi-specialist like David Montgomery return value.

I am intrigued by him catching at least three balls in six straight regular season games while maintaining the red zone role, but we are going to need proof that this offense has the same type of upside it had under Ben Johnson’s leadership.

The recent spike in versatility has me keeping him ranked as a back-end RB2 in what I expect to be a bounce-back spot. If this week resembles last week’s, even in a softer matchup, we can circle back. But for now, Montgomery has built too much equity for us to abandon after a single down week.

De’Von Achane (vs. Patriots)

My goodness, did you get bailed out if you started De’Von Achane last week.

The Dolphins were getting ready to tap out against the Colts, but they salvaged a shred of integrity by avoiding a shutout, and Achane was the beneficiary.

Don’t get me wrong, he worked hard to get into the end zone on that fourth-down play, and he’s an ultra-gifted player, but the environment is nearing toxic, and you can only extract so much value from situations like that.

Tua Tagovailoa picked apart the Patriots last November (317 yards and four touchdowns), a performance that Achane helped make possible with two touchdowns. This feels like ancient history at this point, and with New England allowing the second-fewest yards per carry before contact to running backs in Week 1, how confident can you be in Achane returning RB1 value again?

He’s my RB15 this week, and that’s more of a nod to his raw abilities than anything my numbers like about the situation he’s a part of.

Derrick Henry (vs. Browns)

I was taught very young in my research career that there is only one rule to fully accept: there is always an exception to every rule.

You know Derrick Henry is an all-timer bc even the nerds have abandoned the usual carries/age arguments when it comes to him. Like everyone just acknowledges he isn’t a real person.

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) September 8, 2025

She’s not wrong, and I love the idea of spending the next four months crafting ultra-unique stats to try to contextualize what he continues to do.

If you extend Henry’s per-game averages from his six games over a full 17-game regular season:

• 2,511 rushing yards (406 more than the NFL record)
• 23 rush TDs

The term #BuiltDifferent doesn’t even really begin to describe King Henry. He came up a few carries shy of those arbitrary thresholds last January when the Browns came to Baltimore (20 totes for 138 yards and two scores), but that doesn’t matter. He’s close to inevitable when you think the Ravens are going to be playing in a favorable or neutral script.

That’s going to be the case most weeks, and as a monster favorite this week, there’s little reason to think that won’t be the case on Sunday.

Dylan Sampson (at Ravens)

There were three players last season who had a game with at least eight carries and eight catches (Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown, and De’Von Achane). It’s a hard thing to do, and Sampson does it in his first start while a member of a bad team in an unclear role.

His RB9 finish last week against the Bengals was impressive and deserves waiver wire attention, but I’d caution against thinking that you’ve stumbled upon something special. Cleveland drafted Quinshon Judkins ahead of him for a reason, and all reports are that he will debut this week.

Sampson’s production last week will result in him remaining involved, which I’m confident in. But as a part of a team that is going to have an implied total around 20 points regularly, you need to be more than “involved” to have my interest every week.

Jerome Ford is about as average as it gets, and the Browns gave him more snaps and extended him for more routes to open the season than Sampson. There’s a good chance we just saw his best game of the season: Be careful not to overreact to the first impression.

Isaac Guerendo (at Saints)

Isaac Guerendo missed time in August with a shoulder injury, but he returned to practice in the middle of the month, shortly before the team traded for Brian Robinson Jr.

Guerendo didn’t see the field for a single snap in Week 1 despite the pregame concerns surrounding Christian McCaffrey, a clear indicator that he’s more of a Robinson handcuff than a McCaffrey handcuff.

There are too many options with single-play upside on most waiver wires to waste an active roster spot on Guerendo right now. If McCaffrey were to go down, he’d be worthy of an add, but you don’t need to get ahead of a very specific situation.

Isiah Pacheco (vs. Eagles)

In my opinion, the eye-test was passed from a physical sense when it comes to Isiah Pacheco in the season opener; the problem was that we only got seven touches to base that on.

I thought he hit the holes hard and ran in a unique style. That’s great to see after the disaster that was 2024, but Kareem Hunt converted a pair of fourth downs (one via the rush and another via reception) in the second quarter and led this backfield in red zone snaps.

Now, it’s worth noting that the integrity of the offensive plan was compromised with Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy out after just three snaps. But it’s pretty clear that the lead role Pacheco held 12 months ago, pre-injury, is no longer accessible to him.

Of course, September roles aren’t forever. Maybe Pacheco gets a little more responsibility each week, and he will peak at the right time for us. I’m hopeful that will be the case and still believe there’s a good chance it happens.

In the scope of Week 2, I can’t rank him as a starter. What evidence do I have that he’s going to clear 12 touches in a difficult matchup? I still prefer him to Hunt, but until the volume concerns OR the red zone snap rates change, there are simply more paths to failure than to success right now, and that’s not a risk you have to take in Week 2.

One thing I’m not doing is moving off of Pacheco. I thought the public undervalued him during draft season, and a dud in the opener has him trending in the opposite direction. Sit tight while he sits for you; better times are ahead.

J.K. Dobbins (at Colts)

Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.

It’s rare in fantasy sports that we get a chance to right a wrong, but it’s here. It’s staring you right in the face, and all you have to do is prove that you were paying attention 12 months ago.

That’s it!

After two weeks last season, J.K. Dobbins was the fourth most valuable running back in the land. He was your favorite running back’s favorite running back. He averaged more points per game than eventual stars Chase Brown and Bucky Irving had totaled together.

It was fun, until it wasn’t. After the hot start, he had his moments, but health issues popped up, and he was a fringe top-20 producer on a per-game basis the rest of the way.

So yeah, I’ll take a running back that I project to finish as a top-20 player this season for Dobbins in a one-for-one deal and not think twice about it.

The 19-yard touchdown from last week blinds us from the fact that he had nine totes for 26 yards before and six for 18 after. RJ Harvey was brought in to lead a backfield for a team with playoff expectations, and I can’t imagine that’s changed.

This matchup doesn’t scare me, and you can squeeze another game out of the orange that is Dobbins if you’d like, but what if he falls flat? What if Harvey hits another spike play and never looks back on his way to being 2024’s Bucky Irving?

I’m moving Dobbins instead of playing a game of chicken with his value.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (at Packers)

In his NFL debut, Bill Crosky-Merritt finished with 14.2 fantasy points. He generated excitement with an early touchdown and finished the game with a 42-yard splash play, with the Giants selling out from all angles.

The team finished the week with our highest Elusive Rating and cashed in on some of the positive momentum from the preseason. But I’m in no hurry to get him into lineups against a Packers defense that looked better than projected against the Lions.

Crosky-Merritt earned just one target, and he failed to catch it, a trend that carries over from his extensive collegiate career (93.3% of his touches in college came on the ground). In theory, the game script should have favored a two-down back like this, but he finished with a 31.3% carry share.

Given his usage, the production you got on Sunday was a best-case scenario. That was helpful in Week 1, but it means nothing for his status in Week 2, especially when you adjust expectations based on the opponent.

He’s worthy of flex consideration (currently my RB26). He is my favorite of the backs in Washington. Still, if we are talking about a flex decision, I’m more likely to target receivers that I give a higher ceiling to (teammates Deebo Samuel is one example, and Hollywood Brown is another, with Xavier Worthy sidelined).

Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. Bears)

NFL records get broken from time to time, and usually, it’s a positive thing for a fantasy first-rounder.

“The fewest yards in NFL history for a player catching 10+ passes in a game”

That’s an interesting way to start the post-Ben Johnson era.

On the one hand, Jared Goff was given the green light to utilize the short passing game as a supplement to the ground game. On the other hand, this team couldn’t open anything resembling a hole in the same zip code of the line of scrimmage (100% of his rushing yards came after contact on Sunday, 2024: 59.1%).

In both games against the Bears last season, Gibbs totaled over 100 yards from scrimmage, had a 20+ yard touch, and earned at least four targets. To say I currently have zero concerns surrounding him would be an understatement, and you should be operating with just as much confidence as you had when you drafted Gibbs with your first pick.

If things don’t look better this week, then I’ll give you the deep dive that you deserve. But this offense has built up enough equity to require at least eight quarters of struggles before we question the future.

James Conner (vs. Panthers)

Trey Benson came in to handle the third drive last weekend, but James Conner continued to be the featured Arizona back, and in this matchup, that gives him the potential to be a top-12 producer.

His 12 carries may have gained just 39 yards against the Saints, but he caught all four of his targets, one of which was a well-designed play-action shovel pass. I expect we will get some DFS ownership reprieve due to the limited efficiency and the highlight 51-yard run by Benson, and if that proves accurate, you can find me on Conner Island this weekend.

Carolina allowed 4.9 yards per carry after contact to Jaguar running backs last week. One big carry skewed that, but if that’s going to happen again, Conner is still the percentage play to be the beneficiary (the Panthers were 11th worst in this regard last season, so it’s not as if Week 1 was some shocking result).

Conner impressed with a 21-carry, 122-yard, 1-TD performance against the Rams in Week 2 last season, and I don’t think that’s far from what we get in the late slate on Sunday.

James Cook (at Jets)

James Cook finished as RB4 in Week 1, riding the coattails of Josh Allen in an instant classic. His evening was highlighted by a 51-yard catch-and-run, a splash play that is always a possibility when tethered to this offense.

His other 17 touches combined for 51 yards, but I’m not sweating the lack of efficiency. After refusing to call Cook’s number inside the 10-yard line (19 carries through his first two seasons), he’s totaled 30 such carries since.

We aren’t talking about a player who is elite in any one category, but checks every box needed to sustain strong value consistently.

• Scoring role
• Versatility
• Potent offense
• Big-play ability

Cook has produced 20.8% over expectations in his past two games against the Jets, with 46.9% of his carries in those contests gaining 5+ yards. I’m buying more into his past success in this spot than New York’s strong showing against Pittsburgh’s shaky run game in Week 1 (-0.11 yards allowed per carry before contact to RBs).

Javonte Williams (vs. Giants)

I’m happy for you if you started Javonte Williams for his second multi-rush TD game of his career. I really am.

I told my wife to bench him and have a sore back from sleeping on the couch for the past few nights after she lost her Week 1 matchup by six points.

But I’m happy for YOU and that’s what matters.

I’m not sold that this was the most predictive of performances, but it was at least a data point. Jalen Carter getting tossed before playing a snap certainly helped everything tied to this Dallas offense, and Miles Sanders, shortly after a vintage big run, coughing up the ball in the red zone, was good to see when it comes to job security.

That said, we are now north of 1,400 days since the last time Williams had a rush gain of more than 21 yards, and while the fantasy point total was nice to see on Thursday night, did you see anything in the way of juice?

It’s a single game, but against a defense forced to scramble six seconds into the contest, Williams averaged just 2.13 yards per carry after contact, a 10.5% dip from the failure that was 2024. He ran 27 routes against the Eagles (his most since the 2022 season opener), and that is, theoretically, a path to PPR value. But Dak Prescott was operating on time with everything, and Williams finished with 10 receiving yards.

My opinion of Williams hasn’t changed: he’s a volume play until he’s not. I don’t love the per-touch upside in this specific matchup, but given that Jaydon Blue was a healthy scratch on Thursday night, it stands to project Williams for another 18-ish touches in a competitive atmosphere.

I’m not excited about ranking him as a low-end RB2 and penciling him into my wife’s lineup, but that’s where we are.

If this goes sideways (and it could, as this New York front is no joke), I will be seeking couch recommendations on KyleSoppePFN on X. Our current setup just isn’t conducive to writing this article and being wrong on Williams too many more times.

Jaydon Blue (vs. Giants)

Jaydon Blue was a healthy scratch on Thursday night, and that was a bummer, but it realistically shouldn’t change anything. You were playing the long game when you drafted him, and there was no real world in which you were going to consider playing him during this first month with all 32 teams in play.

Lines were instantly drawn to De’Von being a healthy scratch 24 months ago and owning elite upside by… well, Week 3 (233 yards and four scores against the Broncos). It’s probably a touch optimistic to think we are going to get that, but the larger point remains – you’re not wrong for drafting Blue.

At least not yet. You might be. But isn’t that what your bench is for? The idea of stashing Blue is just as strategically sound today as it was seven days ago. Stay the course and see where this ride goes.

Jaylen Warren (vs. Seahawks)

Kaleb Johnson’s performance as a de facto zero in the season opener allowed Jaylen Warren to assume a role that aligns with what we’ve come to expect from him.

• 11 carries for 37 yards
• 2 catches for 22 yards, TD

It should be no surprise that this team is going to put the ball in Aaron Rodgers’ hands, and with that, the carry count is never going to overwhelm. That said, a Rodgers-led offense can get into scoring position, and Warren stands to benefit from that reward.

Against the Jets, he recorded five red zone touches for just the third time in his career. We are only 60 minutes into the 2025 season for Pittsburgh, but it would appear that Rodgers trusts Warren, and that’s enough for me to consider him as a low-end PPR flex.

Kenneth Gainwell was the first Steeler to get a carry last week, and while he’s going to continue to be a pain, he doesn’t profile as a real threat to take over lead duties.

Jerome Ford (at Ravens)

Jerome Ford was brought back to Cleveland on a cheap deal this summer before the team went out and spent draft capital on a pair of running backs.

The league was telling us that it was done betting on him, and that was proven accurate in Week 1 against the Bengals (seven touches for five yards). Dylan Sampson showcased an impressive skill set in his debut, and with rumors swirling about Quinshon Judkins being active this weekend, Ford’s time as a viable roster filler is trending in the wrong direction.

He failed to capitalize on a pair of goal-line carries before Raheim Sanders cashed in, something that might prove to be the death knell.

Thanks to the lack of clarity in this backfield and Ford leading the way in snaps last week, I’d hang onto him through this week, but I’m admittedly doing it with next to nothing in the way of expectations.

Joe Mixon (vs. Buccaneers)

Joe Mixon battled an ankle injury throughout the summer, and considering he has missed three games in two of the past three seasons, not to mention that he has north of 2,100 NFL touches, he will be tough to trust in any capacity in the short term. The team announced on Aug. 25 that their starting back had been transferred to the reserve/non-football injury list, which rules him out for at least the first four games of this season.

The 29-year-old has averaged more than 4.1 yards per catch just once in his career, making him more of a volume-based fantasy asset than one that can hit your lineup with limited work. With over 1,200 scrimmage yards in four straight seasons, Mixon stands to be a weekly option, but you’re playing the long game.

Houston goes on bye in Week 6 and has some difficult matchups sprinkled in their schedule over the first two months. But if we get a bellcow version of Mixon as winter nears, he could be a popular name on rosters playing for fantasy glory (Week 15-16, home games against the Cardinals and Raiders).

Jonathan Taylor (vs. Broncos)

Joanthan Taylor finished Week 1 with 98 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns, a level of production that checked in just below expectations, but numbers that should generate zero concerns.

He played every single offensive snap in the first half while the Colts built their big lead over the Dolphins, and while the efficiency numbers weren’t pretty, his 100% catch rate and pre-contact metrics all suggest that better days are ahead.

The better Daniel Jones plays in the long term, the better it is for Taylor. Beating up Miami is one thing, but the Broncos offer a completely different challenge. If he can hold his own this weekend, Taylor’s outlook will gain stability.

For his career, JT has picked up 106 scrimmage yards per game. He’s set the bar high, but if the QB play is average, there’s no reason to think he can’t be in that range this season. There are very few “safe” options in this game of ours, but Taylor is on the short list of players that I’d go to battle with every time.

Jordan Mason (vs. Falcons)

Do we already have a new main man in Minnesota?

Jordan Mason was drafted 15-ish spots in terms of the running back board behind Aaron Jones this summer. While he trailed the former Packer 27-22 in snaps during Monday night’s comeback win over the Bears, it was clear that the Vikings trusted in more of a committee fashion than a backup running back role.

For his career, Mason has 19 targets in 46 games. That’s not what he does, so the fact that Minnesota was playing from behind for much of Week 1 could have landed him a reduced role.

Nope.

He touched the ball 16 times on those 22 snaps (Jones: 11 on his 27) and was the only running back to take a red zone snap. The versatility of Jones is valuable, but if this is going to be a split situation, wouldn’t you lean towards the player who gets the most valuable touches?

I still have Jones ranked a touch higher this week because of the creativity Kevin O’Connell showcased in getting him down the field in routes against slower defenders. But both are firm flex plays, and this backfield could easily tilt in Mason’s favor should the Vikings get on the board early.

Josh Jacobs (vs. Commanders)

It wasn’t pretty, but that’s kind of the brand, right?

Josh Jacobs isn’t Derrick Henry, but he’s not one of these modern-day, stop-what-you’re-doing-and-watch freak athletes that are in scoring position with every touch.

I’ll stop short of calling him a plodder because that sounds disrespectful, but he’s a hard-nosed running back in the perfect situation. There is no threat to him in terms of work in this backfield, and Jordan Love continues to develop, making this one of the 10 most feared offenses in the game.

Jacobs has now scored in nine straight games and just goes about his business every single week. He gained yardage on just 68.4% of his rushes against the Lions, the third-worst game of his career (minimum 10 carries), but he still walked away with 14 PPR points and was a positive force for your team.

The Commanders bottled up Giants running backs last week, but make of that what you will. This is still a defense I have questions about up front, and Jacobs isn’t really the type of running back I’d want to try to tackle on a short week.

Jacobs is where Jacobs always is for me: a low-end RB1 with a high floor that I can count on.

Kaleb Johnson (vs. SEA)

Two months ago, we thought that Kaleb Johnson could be 2024 Najee Harris.

One month ago, we were putting air in Warren’s tires.

Now, Kaleb Johnson is on the fringes of rosterable. It’s been a rough summer for the rookie, and two snaps in the opener (one carry for -2 yards) is evidence that he doesn’t have the trust of the finicky Aaron Rodgers.

Of course, that could change with time, but there’s no reason to think it does in the short term, and Pittsburgh has a Week 5 bye. Kenneth Gainwell actually led this backfield in snaps (27-25 over Warren), making this situation even cloudier than we anticipated.

Johnson doesn’t need to be rostered at this moment, but I’m not turning the lights out (Weeks 13-16: Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, and Lions, all of whom looked vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball). It’s a long shot that he wins the bellcow role outright, but I still think there is 10-12 touch potential here, even if he doesn’t need to be rostered over the next month.

Kareem Hunt (vs. Eagles)

That was a whole lot of nothing on Friday night from this Kansas City backfield. While I’m willing to write some of it off as a result of playing a familiar opponent in a different country and losing your WR1 after three snaps, red flags were certainly raised.

Both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco were handed the ball five times and targeted three. Pacheco held a 28-23 edge in snaps and 21-17 routes, giving him the slight edge, but nothing to write home about.

Hunt held a 4-2 edge in snaps once the Chiefs reached the Chargers’ 10-yard line, and that is noteworthy, even if we are dealing with the smallest sample. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, we expect the Chiefs to frequently enter the red zone regularly, thus creating a path to flex value in very specific situations, if you’re desperate. But I have a hard time thinking you’re already at that point.

It’s not a perfect comparison, but isn’t he just a version of 2024 Jaylen Warren? Last season, that meant nothing until it meant something (five straight top-30 finishes in Weeks 10-14). Warren wormed his way into a 10-carry, four-target type of role, and that was good enough to get you through bye week season, even if you weren’t ever excited about it.

As long as Pacheco is healthy, I think that’s the best-case scenario. You’re holding onto Hunt, understanding that what happened to the Chiefs as a whole on Friday isn’t likely to sustain, but that the ceiling isn’t all that high.

Kenneth Walker III (at Steelers)

We got so carried away this summer dreaming of what Kenneth Walker III would have access to in a Klint Kubiak offense that we underplayed the potential for him to be part of a full-blown committee.

Maybe you didn’t. I don’t know, you don’t post your rankings. I know I did.

Zach Charbonnet held a 28-18 snap edge in Week 1 and handled five of six red zone snaps. There’s no debate: he had the most valuable role among Seahawks running backs in the season opener.

That, of course, doesn’t mean we have an official shift of power in Seattle, but it was telling that, with the entire offseason to prepare, Kubiak ran Charbonnet out there at the rate he did.

Maybe this is a preservation move on Walker’s part. Maybe we can thank him long-term. But this feels like the dreaded “hot-hand” situation, where we are throwing darts pregame and cashing live bets at halftime when it is clear which back is trending better.

Walker’s ADP was 80 spots ahead of Charbonnet’s this summer, and it’s clear that the gap was far too broad. The Steelers were gashed for 182 yards and three scores last week by the Jets, but a mobile quarterback certainly factored into their efficiency.

I think you’re skating on thin ice this week if you’re starting either of these backs. We know that collapsing pockets are the kryptonite of Sam Darnold, so what is to stop Pittsburgh from turning into Blitzburgh in this spot?

I’m actively avoiding both Seattle running backs until further notice. For this week, I’d rather flex, in PPR formats, Keenan Allen (at Raiders) or Hollywood Brown (vs. Eagles), a thought that would have seemed ludicrous less than a month ago.

Kyren Williams (at Titans)

Last week, Kyren Williams scored, got 20 opportunities, and played in a favorable game script.

You were rewarded for playing him, but I can’t help but think that you’re going to have a hard time paying off the price you paid on draft day when all is said and done this season.

Williams doesn’t have a 20-yard run, despite all of the volume you could ask for, since November, and he doesn’t have a run longer than 30 yards since the November before that.

Let me put that a different way.

• Since Week 13, 2024: 3rd in carries, not one of 25 players with a 21+ yard run
• Since Week 13, 2023: 2nd in carries, not one of 78 players with a 31+ yard run

He averages under two catches per game for his career and has underwhelmed in yards per carry in two of his three seasons (3.7 YPC on Sunday has me thinking he’ll make it three of four).

So yes, he scores touchdowns, and that’s great. But what happens if the offense fails to move the ball? He’s not going to land a haymaker from distanc,e and if he’s held out of the end zone, he falls from RB19 to RB33 in Week 1.

I intentionally have zero shares of Williams, but if I had him and could get running backs drafted in his general range (Bucky Irving, James Cook, or Omarion Hampton), I’d jump without thinking twice.

Miles Sanders (vs. Giants)

That 49-yard run was fun, right?

I hope you enjoyed those few minutes. The lost red zone fumble that followed it might be the last valuable carry we see the former Nittany Lion handle this month.

I didn’t think Javonte Williams was a world beater against the Eagles (3.6 yards per carry), but this is a team that is going to need to maximize every opportunity they get, and he at least did that with a pair of touchdown plunges.

I’m keeping Sanders as the last player on my bench, where I have him until Jaydon Blue steps onto the field. The promising rookie was a healthy scratch for the opener, something I suspect will change sooner than later. This Dallas offense may not be good enough to support a single RB every week, and if/when Blue shows his potential, Sanders stands to fall to third on this depth chart.

Hold for now, but don’t get too attached.

Najee Harris (at Raiders)

It was good to see that Najee Harris recovered enough from the Fourth of July fireworks incident to be active for Friday night, but there’s a long way for him to go before I’m considering him a lock to remain on rosters.

In the win over the Chiefs, he had a catch before he had a carry, and neither came in the first quarter. A five-yard reception early in the second stanza was his only target for the day, and he had only a single carry.

Omarion Hampton was fine as the starter (0.60 yards per carry before contact, limited just how impressive he had a chance to be), and with the rookie garnering 83.3% of the non-Justin Herbert rush attempts, this is pretty clearly his job to lose.

If you want to hold onto Harris as he ramps into form, acknowledging that it’s very likely he’s just a big-name handcuff, fine by me. But if you told me that there was a Week 1 breakout player available in your more shallow league who has a direct path to weekly volume that you prefer, I’d believe you very much.

Nick Chubb (vs. Buccaneers)

Nick Chubb looked good on Sunday?

I mean, I guess. He ran 13 times for 60 yards, but he didn’t catch his lone target against the Rams, and the deeper you dive into the data, the more red flags appear.

If you leave the injury off to the side for a moment and simply evaluate what we saw on Sunday, I’m still not sold. The Houston offensive line struggled for the majority of the opener, yet Chubb was better than the league average before contact on nine of his 13 attempts.

That doesn’t feel the least bit sticky.

Factor in the injuries, and Chubb feels more like a roster bandage than the answer to your questions. In the absence of Joe Mixon, four different running backs handled multiple carries, and while he was the clear lead of the bunch, this is a situation begging for someone to step up.

If you don’t have Nico Collins on your roster, I don’t think you want to expose yourself to the Texans in any capacity until they prove to us that last week’s mess was an exception and not the rule.

Ollie Gordon II (vs. Patriots)

Ollie Gordon’s name was as popular as any in the late stages of draft season, but he was out-snapped at nearly a three-to-one clip in the season opener by De’Von Achane.

We weren’t sure about the health of Achane as Week 1 approached, but once it became clear that he was good to go, a limited role that doesn’t hold standalone value behind him is roughly what we expected.

Things are messy in Miami right now, and that’s exactly why I’d hold Gordon. I’m not sure who is on this team by Halloween if they play like they did on Sunday a few more times, and that could open up opportunities for a handful of new names, Gordon’s being atop that list.

But as things stand right now, you’re talking about a clear backup running back on a team that was lucky to score in Week 1. Gordon is a stash and nothing more.

Omarion Hampton (at Raiders)

When we recap the season in January, Omarion Hampton’s 17-touch, 61-yard debut won’t make the cut, but he showed me enough to be confident that this is his job to lose, and the team as a whole showed more than enough promise when it comes to creating an advantageous environment.

The rookie had gains of eight and 11 yards in the first quarter (outside of those two spurts, his other 13 carries picked up just 29 yards) and did well to get what was blocked.

The problem? Not much was blocked. Hampton averaged under two feet per carry before contact, and if Jim Harbaugh is going to truly put the ball in the hands of Justin Herbert this season, there’s a chance that Hampton’s weekly value hinges more on his work as a pass catcher than we’d like.

He’s a viable pass catcher (8.7 yards per grab while at North Carolina, with 10.5% of his touches coming via the reception), and we saw the Steelers opt for a non-Najee Harris option in that role in years past.

I came away from Week 1 about where I entered it in terms of Hampton’s value for the season. He profiles as the lead back of an above-average offense, and I expect his versatility to result in some spike weeks. If the offensive line struggles to create lanes, there is a floor to consider as Harris rounds into game shape. Still, I think you can pencil in Hampton as a weekly starter without much of a second thought right now, and there’s potential for much more in this plus-matchup on extended rest.

Quinshon Judkins (at Ravens)

The fact that all charges against Quinshon Judkins were dropped this summer gives us a level of clarity that didn’t seem likely, but his early-season outlook remains cloudy at best, given the amount of missed practice time and the general projected ineptitude of this offense.

This could turn into an imperfect storm where Judkins is brought up to speed by the time a QB change takes place.

I’m not optimistic that this season will go well, but there’s a clear path to volume on a team that will likely prefer to run the ball, so this situation has to have our interest. Judkins cleared 1,200 yards and scored at least 16 times in all three of his collegiate seasons, and that pedigree is what required the Browns to spend a second-round pick on him.

That said, they’ve gotten a whole camp of Dylan Sampson and are comfortable with Jerome Ford. This profiles as a wide-open committee situation, thus making it a rather easy fade for now, with the understanding that rostering any of these backs is more of an October play, and that that might be on the optimistic side of things, even if his NFL debut is expected to come this weekend.

Rachaad White (at Texans)

Rachaad White was on the field for just 14 snaps over the weekend, well behind Bucky Irving’s 43. On nine of those 14, he ran a route, and that’s his path to mattering in an old-school Theo Riddick sort of way.

But even that feels optimistic because of the duality of Irving and the explosive potential that is in play with every touch he gets.

We are in the healthiest portion of the season, and that means you’re likely not in a roster crunch. You can hold onto White right now without really impacting your win expectancy. That’s fine, I have no problem with that. Exposure to a high-flying offense is generally how I fill out my rosters.

That said, if we are in the middle of October and you’re dealing with injury question marks all over the place, I wouldn’t be shocked if White is on the chopping block for a warm body that you can count on for 6-8 touches and/or a handful of targets.

I’d much rather roster a Tyler Allgeier type over White because I’m confident in what I’m getting if the starter goes down. White averages 3.8 yards per carry for his career and, by every measure, is one of the worst between-the-tackle runners in the league.

Ray Davis (at Jets)

Not all lessons we learned in Week 1 will win or lose you your league, but all are important.

In the crazy win over the Ravens, Ray Davis was on the field for just eight snaps, working not only behind James Cook, but also Ty Johnson (25 snaps).

Now, the game state was unique, so I’m not ready to say that Johnson is the second most valuable Buffalo running back. He’s not. He’s a fancy Samaje Perine in that he has his role, that role just happened to be called upon with regularity during a historic comeback. But he’s also not going away.

We saw Davis impress last season when given the opportunity, and nothing I saw in Week 1 has moved me off of that impression. It was always going to be a long shot for this backfield to support multiple weekly options, and that remains the case – Davis is a contingent play.

That’s not the most exciting of roles, but it’s the type of thing I don’t mind investing in right now. The importance of depth increases as the season progresses: the hope is that Davis can realize some value by the time bye weeks kick in, and every spot on your bench holds value.

Leagues with shallow benches aren’t a good fit for the Davis profile, but if you have some room to play the long game, I remain interested.

Rhamondre Stevenson (at Dolphins)

This feels like a team being stubborn, and that’s annoying, but I don’t think it lasts.

It can’t. The Patriots think they have the QB of their future under center, and that makes every week during his rookie deal a valuable one. Rhamondre Stevenson got the first rush attempt of the season and nearly doubled TreVeyon Henderson in snaps (45-23), but is this team content with losing to the Raiders at home?

It’s the smallest of small samples, but Stevenson got two more carries than Henderson last week and gained 12 fewer yards. The rookie has rare big-play ability at the position, and I suspect that his first chunk play as a professional could result in a snap shift in this backfield.

This is as good a spot as any for one of these backs to work their way into the RB2 conversation moving forward, but entering the week with this being a full-blown committee, you’re going to have a tough time starting either of them.

As a reminder, the inefficient showing from Stevenson against the Raiders last week was not an aberration:

PFSN Elusive Rating by season:

• 2021: 38.3%
• 2022: 33.8%
• 2023: 28.2%
• 2024: 27.1%

5+ yard rush rate by season:

• 2021: 40.6%
• 2022: 37.6%
• 2023: 36.5%
• 2024: 32.4%

RJ Harvey (at Colts)

RJ Harvey held a slim 7-5 snap edge over J.K. Dobbins in the first quarter, but it was 32-15 the rest of the way in favor of the veteran.

This was about as even a rotation as you can get with the two essentially just alternating drives; the Dobbins drives just happened to last a bit longer, thus resulting in his 18-7 touch edge for the week.

I’m not labeling that as predictive, but I still like the rookie to control this backfield when it matters most. We caught a glimpse of what is possible with Harvey by way of a 50-yard run in the fourth quarter. Denver made him a second-round pick after three straight seasons of averaging over 6.0 yards per carry at UCF, and given that they are a win-now team, I expect them to lean into that upside sooner than later.

For now, we wait. All things even, I think Harvey works into the lead role by the middle of the season, but there’s a good chance not all things are even. Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has played in 55.9% of potential games since.

Stay the course.

Saquon Barkley (at Chiefs)

The man touches the ball 22 times, scores, and offers a highlight play, yet we are disappointed.

After the storybook 2024 season, the bar might be a little high for Saquon Barkley. That said, five targets were good to see (tied his highest output from last season), and his three carries inside the 10-yard line matched his second-best showing from a year ago.

The Tushy Push is going to be a pain for as long as it’s legal, and I thought Will Shipley looked good before exiting, so maybe we won’t get a repeat of 2024 … that was always going to be the case. The matchup isn’t ideal — 25 carries for only 57 yards in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs, with gains on just 76% of attempts and no runs over 10 yards. Still, his volume and role in this offense keep him firmly in RB1 territory.

Again, we are complaining about a game that 96% of players would be happy with.

Relax. The usage around the goal line was why Barkley wasn’t really a part of the 1.01 conversation this summer. Still, the volume is why he never fell outside of the first round, and if he’s going to be used in space as a pass catcher more this season than last, I don’t think you end up regretting this selection at all.

Tank Bigsby (at Chiefs)

After being an afterthought in Week 1 (it took mop-up duty for him even to approach one-third of the snaps that Travis Etienne played), Tank Bigsby was shipped off to Philadelphia on Monday.

Good thing for his career, bad thing for his fantasy managers.

Instead of competing for a lead role in a potentially wide-open Liam Coen offense, he’s, at best, a committee handcuff in an offense with the premier rushing TD vulture of a generation.

That’s not great.

If you want to track Will Shipley’s health, I’ll allow it. But with AJ Dillon also in the mix, Bigsby ever hitting your lineup is a parlay that I’m not willing to take.

Explore trade options with the Saquon Barkley manager as a courtesy, but realistically, I’m fine with cutting ties if there is a player with upside on your wire.

Tony Pollard (vs. Rams)

The 29-yard catch was good to see.

There you go, all of the optimism that was garnered from the Titans in Week 1.

Taking a rookie quarterback into Denver on a team short of proven playmakers was always going to be a tough sell, and it went to script. That 29-yard grab? It was enough for Pollard to lead the Titans in receiving for the week.

No, not the longest single catch. The leading receiver. As in, no one on this team had 30 receiving yards.

As expected, with Tyjae Spears sidelined, Pollard carried the mail (90% of RB carries), and as expected, he had very little room to run (long run: nine yards).

Yards per carry before contact:

• 2021: 1.92 yards
• 2022: 1.40 yards
• 2023: 1.07 yards
• 2024: 0.75 yards
• Week 1: 0.33 yards

The Rams were impressive against the Texans last weekend, and while I’m still sorting out if that was more of a good Los Angeles performance or an indictment of Houston’s offensive line, it happened. They project as a tough matchup, and that should have you trending off of Pollard if at all possible this weekend (my RB27, behind J.K. Dobbins and Bill Crosky-Merritt).

If Cam Ward develops on the fly, maybe pieces of this offense grab my attention by midseason. Until then, I’m perfectly fine with not starting anyone on this roster in standard-sized leagues.

Travis Etienne Jr. (at Bengals)

There are going to be backfields that are currently muddy, get muddier with time, and result in nothing of fantasy significance for the majority of the season.

If you asked me a week ago, this Jacksonville situation would have been at the top of my list of candidates for that distinction.

Good thing you didn’t ask.

Travis Etienne looked like … well … rookie season Travis Etienne in Week 1, and following the performance, Tank Bigsby was shipped off to Philadelphia. This is now a two-man backfield with the lead back coming off arguably the best game of his career and a rookie who was hardly used in the opener.

Is Etienne a top-15 running back in Week 2 after not cracking my top 40 in Week 1?

That’s the range I have him at right now. Against the Panthers, 68.8% of Etienne’s carries were better than league average in terms of yards gained before contact (third best among the 32 RBs who carried the ball 10+ times in Week 1), a nod to the vision that we saw early in his career.

He also hauled in all three of his targets. Are you old enough to remember when Etienne was one of four backs with 1,000 yards on the ground and 50 catches? It was way back in 2023.

The Bengals were a bottom-10 defense in terms of RB yards before contact last season, but they were the second-best on Sunday against the Browns. I suppose this defense may have improved since last season, but I’m not close to fearing them.

The Jags can keep this game tight by keeping Joe Burrow off the field, and relying on Etienne for 18+ touches is the way they are most likely to do that.

A few weeks ago, Braelon Allen came off the board before Etienne in a draft I was a part of. Entering Week 2, I have nine running backs wedged between them in my positional ranks.

TreVeyon Henderson (at Dolphins)

If I told you a week ago that TreyVeon Henderson would lead the Patriots in rushing yards and receptions, you may have given a kidney and an RB3 in a trade to acquire him before his price inevitably exploded.

Those things were true on Sunday against the Raiders, but his stock hasn’t budged because Rhamondre Stevenson held a 45-23 snap edge over him, and the offense as a whole was stuck in the mud (4.9 yards per play and 28.6% on third downs).

Henderson only got five carries, and they weren’t really an impressive five, with 70.4% of his yards coming before contact. Maybe as the sample grows, we learn that to be more of a vision stat than anything, but his six catches really are what saved you from a complete disaster.

On those six targets, Henderson’s average depth of target was -3.17 yards. Would I love to see him used more as an actual route runner than a safety valve? Of course I would, but these bail-out catches count just as much as anything, and if this is how New England wants to get him into space, who am I to argue?

This plus matchup is a dual-edged sword, right? Henderson’s usage would seem to put him in a position to decimate a defense that can’t tackle (Miami has allowed the third-most yards after contact per carry since the beginning of last season), but that’s a strong spot for everyone. Stevenson doubled him up in touches over the weekend.

If this is truly Stevenson’s job to lose, I think he will, but asking that fall from grace to happen against the currently hapless Dolphins is … well … optimistic.

Henderson is an acceptable flex option this week, and I remain just as bullish on him for this season as a whole as I was all summer: he’s going to be a lineup lock, and I’m not sure it takes us until Halloween to have him ranked as such.

Tyjae Spears (vs. Rams)

I thought Tyjae Spears (ankle) ran reasonably hard last year when given the chance, and by earning 15 targets in his last three games, there’s something here. What “something” means isn’t clear, but this former third-round pick is in a key evaluation year — midway through his rookie deal as Tony Pollard’s guaranteed money expires. He’s part of a team trying to climb from rock bottom with its new franchise quarterback in place.

I’m comfortable making the second-half-of-the-season case for Spears (currently on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury), but not before that. The Tulane product has averaged under 10 touches per game for his career, and that’s the role I’m projecting for the short term.

If you have room on your bench/IR, stashing Spears is the play, understanding that your patience could be rewarded, but outright aggression likely won’t be.

Tyler Allgeier (at Vikings)

The Falcons picked up 69 yards on their 28 rush attempts against the Bucs on Sunday. That sort of inefficiency will likely kill any hope of viewing Tyler Allgeier as a high-floor flex play in emergency situations.

He wasn’t targeted a single time in the opener, and as long as Bijan Robinson is atop this depth chart, I don’t see that changing.

Why target a different running back when your star is in scoring position the second he touches the rock, no matter where he is on the field?

I do think this Atlanta offense will be better than average this season and could well peak as Michael Penix becomes more comfortable. That’s why “burning” a roster spot on Allgeier is a viable strategy: if Robinson goes down, you’ve got a top 20 running back that you can play and play.

That said, I don’t see a situation in which there is standalone value in this profile, barring an injury.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (at Cowboys)

We spend the entire summer trying to project the distribution of backfield touches. We evaluate skill set fits, projected game scripts, and a million other things that go into creating sound rankings and entering your draft with confidence.

But sometimes, it just doesn’t matter.

Last week, I was much higher than the field on Tyrone Tracy Jr. I rostered him at a bargain in DFS and thought I was smarter than everyone. The idea was multi-pronged: the Giants’ defense is underrated and can thus keep the game tight, which would mean a conservative game plan, allowing me to lean into my projection of Tracy as a bellcow against a defense with some question marks.

Process-wise, I stand by it. Hell, I was right for the most part, it just didn’t matter.

Tracy out-snapped Cam Skattebo 45-7, but it only resulted in 10 carries because this offensive line couldn’t get a push. He was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on six of his 10 carries (NFL RB average in Week 1: 22.9%), and the G-men (correctly) just gave up trying on the ground.

Why would we project that to change this week?

Last season, Tracy carried 13 times for 34 yards against Dallas, and after what we saw last week, that’d be a welcome level of efficiency.

I’m comfortable labeling him as the bellcow for now, but that doesn’t mean he should be near your lineup. Tracy is currently my RB36, ranking behind multiple backs in Washington, Seattle, and Minnesota.

And no, I’m not making the same mistake in DFS this week.

Woody Marks (vs. Buccaneers)

Targeting uncertainty makes perfect sense in the preseason. The only way it works once we get into the regular season is by being agile and willing to move on.

Woody Marks could have been the answer to the Joe Mixon injury in Houston. The odds weren’t great, but they weren’t zero, and that’s why you threw a dart in the final round.

I actually think the draft pick process was a good one.

But it no longer matters.

Marks was on the field for just seven offensive snaps on Sunday, playing well behind Nick Chubb and Dare Ogunbowale, not to mention matching Dameon Pierce in that regard. The latter two also play on special teams, making it even more alarming that the Texans weren’t willing to feature Marks to a degree and let those two focus on their other responsibilities.

The Texans’ backfield isn’t one I’m looking to get exposure to, and if you have Marks at the end of your bench, you should be looking elsewhere for role upside.

Zach Charbonnet (at Steelers)

Adam Schefter raised the idea of this being more of a committee situation on Sunday in the pregame coverage, and when that man talks, you’re wise to listen.

Week 1 snaps:

• Charbonnet: 28 (five in the red zone)
• Kenneth Walker III: 18 (one in the red zone)

Walker has missed multiple games in every season of his career and seen his yards per carry average dip in consecutive campaigns: that’s exactly why I think this sort of distribution has staying power.

Teams with a fragile lead back have two choices: either manage them or ride them hard and be prepared to pay the health bill with time. It appears that, in addition to acquiring Charbonnet as a player, Seattle has opted to distribute the workload rather than overexerting one player and altering the structure of their offense.

I think this is the right move for the Seahawks, but a worst-case scenario for fantasy managers. I still believe the Steelers’ defense is viable despite their poor showing to open the season, and that makes neither Seahawk RB a top-25 play for me in Week 2.

The advanced metric that most has my attention from the opener, in regards to this backfield, is something I call “Before%”. It’s a simple stat: on what percentage of carries did a player perform better than the league RB average before contact.

I like using this because it helps mitigate the impact of the outlier carries. If a player goes untouched for an 80-yard touchdown, his raw before-contact numbers are wonky for the next two months, but that’s not the case when it comes to Before%.

Week 1 before%

• Charbonnet: 75%
• Walker III: 40%

That’s obviously a small sample, but these two are running behind the exact same offensive line and, through one week at least, Charbonnet did it better.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown (at Chiefs)

Well, that wasn’t very fun.

For just the third time in his career, the first since his rookie season with the Titans, A.J. Brown failed to earn multiple targets in an NFL game.

One catch. Eight yards.

That’s all he gave you, and that one reception came after 58 minutes of suffering to help Philly ice this game. This happening in Week 1 is obviously less than ideal, but the idea that something like this could happen shouldn’t be a surprise.

The Eagles are a low-volume passing attack, and that carries with it a low floor for all involved. Last season, both Brown and DeVonta Smith were top-15 PPR receivers, and between the two of them, they had five games with single-digit point totals.

It doesn’t usually happen on the same night like it did Thursday, but these duds happen — I need you not to overreact simply because it happened in Week 1 and that Brown is now pacing for 136 yards this season.

As much as the city of Philadelphia wanted this game, I think it’s safe to say that the organization itself is probably putting a little more emphasis on this Super Bowl rematch than a Week 1 showdown with a franchise stuck in the mud. Brown scored in each of his final three games last regular season. He scored in the NFC Title game against the Commanders, and he scored in the Super Bowl.

When the Eagles place a high level of value on a game, #11 has a way of getting his. There were three instances last season in which Brown didn’t finish the week as a top-40 performer at the position, and you still profited from counting on him weekly because of his raw ability.

Trust the process here. You didn’t draft anyone thinking that 17 games of greatness were lucky. Be thankful to have this dud on the way, understanding that more good than bad is likely coming.

But yes, this sort of thing does happen to the Eagles’ pass game, and it likely won’t be the last time it does. You signed up for variance, and you’re getting it. Buckle up.

Adam Thielen (vs. Falcons)

The idea of rostering Adam Thielen was there. He’s coming home to a team working with a new quarterback that will be without its up-and-coming WR2 for the first three weeks of the season.

Your effort to mine value for the first month of the season was made in good faith, but after the veteran earned just one target on 16 routes against the Bears, I think we can move on without much concern.

What’s the risk? He catches seven balls for 70 yards this week, and you miss out on a player with low-end WR3 upside in Week 3, the final one before Jordan Addison returns to action and suppresses his projected usage even further?

I’d rather throw a dart at any available Packer receiver or a Tyquan Thornton type in Kansas City that carries some single-target juice.

It’s been a fun ride, Mr. Thielen, but the time has come for us to move on.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. Bears)

That’s not a great start.

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s target diet in terms of slot usage and aDOT looked similar to what it was last season under Ben Johnson. Still, his on-field target share was nearly half of what we’ve come to expect (14.3%, career: 26.4%). If this new offense can’t generate opportunities for its most talented player, Week 1 isn’t going to be the last underwhelming showing from this offense.

Relax.

It was one week. The first week with a new OC. Facing a defense that just added one of the biggest game-wreckers in the sport.

The Packers are as familiar with St. Brown as anyone, and they finally found a way to bottle him up: for me, Week 1 was more a sign of things to come from Green Bay’s defense than a cause for concern when it comes to Detroit’s offense.

St. Brown has cleared 70 receiving yards in three of his last four games against the Bears, and I like him to make it four of five in this spot. Skeptics will point to Johnson having the skeleton key to stopping him, and you can feed into that for DFS purposes if you’d like, but don’t do anything silly in season-long spots.

Brandon Aiyuk (at Saints)

The 49ers are hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023.

By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.

In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.

This injury was priced into Aiyuk’s cost at your draft, so there’s no point in trying to trade for him now. But what if his manager starts slow? What if panic mode sets in before we have a definitive return date?

I’m making a mental note of who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up in September.

Brian Thomas Jr. (at Bengals)

There were a handful of ace receivers who were shut down in Week 1, and three of them are playing in this game.

Call up Will Smith and have him bring the Mind Eraser from Men in Black: you should be operating as if last week never happened.

Thomas got home on his lone rushing attempt of Week 1, helping mitigate some of the damage done by his one-catch performance (seven targets). The rush attempt isn’t predictive, but it is proof that Liam Coen was hellbent on getting his WR1 the ball, even if Trevor Lawrence couldn’t throw it in his zip code.

This game should be played with pace and with the Jaguars trailing (3.5-point underdog). I have all three star receivers in this game ranked as top-12 plays for the week, with Thomas checking in as WR5.

If you want to send a low-ball trade offer, your opportunity figures to be closed by halftime on Sunday.

Calvin Ridley (vs. Rams)

The good news for Calvin Ridley managers is that Patrick Surtain can only play for one franchise. Tennessee’s WR1 had to deal with the best corner in the sport last week, and while he did well to earn eight targets, the 6.7 PPR points weren’t helpful.

The Rams are no picnic of a matchup, and they just bottled up Nico Collins for four quarters, but I’m OK with buying some Ridley stock right now.

The target volume was good to see in Cam Akers’ debut, and I’m a believer that if he can continue to earn looks at a rate like that, he’ll return flex value more often than not.

I’m not going out of my way to play him in this spot (WR41), but if Akers continues to lock in on his lone reliable pass catcher, Ridley could crack my top-30 or so next week (vs. Colts).

Cedric Tillman (at Ravens)

Entering this season, Cedric Tillman had played at least three quarters of the snaps nine times in his career:

• 91.5 PPR fantasy points
• 60 targets (eight in the end zone)

So, why should we be surprised at all by what we saw last weekend against a porous Bengals defense?

In Week 1, Tillman turned an 88.7% snap share into 16.2 fantasy points, a line that was boosted by an end zone target. He’s been buried at times, but the path to playing time is clear for him right now, and the quarterback situation might be as good as it’s going to get in Cleveland.

The Ravens’ defense is stout when Josh Allen isn’t on the other side of the ball, and that’s why I have Tillman ranked outside of my top-40 at the position this week, but I could certainly see getting there in a DFS lineup where you stacked Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers.

CeeDee Lamb (vs. Giants)

The drops led off every highlight show last Friday, and they should have. Those lapses in concentration from a player like this in an offense that is going to rely on him are unacceptable.

But let’s take it down a notch in the fantasy world. Lamb was featured from the jump and finished with a 39.4% target share. He had more catches (seven) than any of his teammates had targets and posted a 13.8-yard average depth of target, higher than any single game from a year ago.

On Thursday, Lamb became the second-youngest player to reach 500 career receptions (bar trivia answer: Larry Fitzgerald sits atop that list) and also drew a pair of impactful pass interference calls to help keep the ‘Boys competitive.

Based on target expectations, Lamb underachieved projections by 14.3% and still flirted with 20 PPR points. This was always a strong first-round pick, and he remains a real threat to lead the position in scoring every time he laces ’em up (18.1 PPR PPG career vs. NYG with over 80 receiving yards in four of five home games against the divisional rival).

Chris Godwin (at Texans)

The Bucs activated Chris Godwin off the PUP list on August 21 (Week 7, fractured ankle), but the expectation remains for him to miss all of September.

This, of course, was baked into the draft day price tag on the 29-year-old. Unless something changes drastically, this will be the sixth time in seven years that Godwin has missed multiple games. But there is hope that the cautious rehab approach will result in him peaking at the right time for both the Bucs and his loyal fantasy managers.

Tampa Bay has a well-positioned Week 9 bye, which could allow Godwin to test his body to its limits in the second month of the season, knowing that an off week isn’t too far off.

In any event, you drafted him with the hope that he’d be a 1,000-yard pace player for a seventh straight season with consistent volume for you when he hits the field, and we have no real reason to think he won’t be.

His lack of touchdowns was a concern heading into last season, but five of his 50 catches in 2021 resulted in scores, giving us hope that we are looking at a WR2 down the stretch. The Bucs close the season with about as favorable a schedule as anyone in the league, giving him an even better chance to impact your fantasy season massively, even if he’s not doing that in the first month.

• Week 13 vs. Cardinals
• Week 14 vs. Saints
• Week 15 vs. Falcons
• Week 16 at Panthers
• Week 17 at Dolphins
• Week 18 vs. Panthers

Chris Olave (vs. 49ers)

I can’t imagine that, seven days ago, the Saints schemed up a game plan that involved 46 Spencer Rattler throws. That said, things like that happen when you’re a bad football team, so I don’t think Chris Olave’s managers have to apologize for him getting 13 targets.

He’s going to need every one of them.

Averaging 4.15 yards per target is a dangerous game to play, even if you think the volume is stable. We know that Olave carries injury flags and that the overall upside of this offense is limited.

I think he’s a very good player, but skill is less than half the equation in my eyes, and that’s why he’s ranked outside of my top-30 this week. It’s a different situation, but he ranks right next to Tyreek Hill in my Week 2 rankings. You can go this direction for your flex if you like, but I have George Pickens and Hollywood Brown ranked higher than him.

Christian Kirk (vs. Buccaneers)

A strained hamstring resulted in Christian Kirk missing Week 1, and the team expressed a desire to be cautious with a receiver who missed nine games a season ago. Nico Collins was on the shelf for over a month with a similar diagnosis last season, and that is likely to serve as a guiding light this time around (Houston has their bye in Week 6).

That shouldn’t significantly impact your fantasy roster. Kirk wasn’t drafted as a starter in most formats, and with bye weeks not a thing in September, the odds were slim that you were going to start him in the short term, even if at full strength.

If you have the luxury of an IR slot or deep benches, I’m still moderately bullish on Kirk being able to carve out a niche in an offense that I expect to prioritize the pass. But I understand that not everyone is in a league structured like that, and the fact of the matter is that Kirk is likely to be dead weight this month.

The “active but limited” designation is always in play with injuries like this, and that creates a headache that is greater than the potential reward. If one of these rookie receivers establishes himself, Kirk’s ceiling lowers in a significant way, so that’s how I’m treating this situation if I don’t have an IR spot available.

Are you bullish on either Jaylin Noel or Jayden Higgins? If so, cut ties with Kirk and look for upside elsewhere. Until that’s the case, I’d sit tight.

Cooper Kupp (at Steelers)

On the bright side, Cooper Kupp led the Seahawks in routes and was on the field for 88% of their offensive snaps.

On the downside, his second-half slide from last season looks to be more of a trend than a fluke. Kupp turned one of every eight routes into a target and did next to nothing with them (two catches for 15 yards).

Kupp had just 53 receiving yards in his last three regular season games with the Rams, but we were holding out hope that the veteran could return to the form he showed before Thanksgiving and be a viable lineup piece.

I’m not 100% ruling that out, but I’m certainly not playing him until I see some signs of life in the target-earning department. Kupp has a big name, but I’d play Wan’Dale Robinson over him this week without losing sleep over it.

Courtland Sutton (at Colts)

This is a fun game we play, and that’s why we get enamored with the players who can return any sort of performance.

Courtland Sutton isn’t that. He’s unlikely to single-handedly determine your outcome this week or any week. Over his last 11 games, he’s scored 14.8-20.8 PPR points seven times. You know what you’re getting, and that is why he is so rarely discussed.

The Colts shut down the Dolphins last weekend, but that was much more of an indictment on Miami than anything to fear on the Indianapolis side. In that game, Jaylon Jones (hamstring) and Charvarius Ward (concussion) were both banged up, making this a potentially very advantageous spot for the Broncos as a whole.

I’m comfortable locking in a double-digit floor with more upside this week than usually presents itself for Denver’s WR1. In 2021, he ranked fourth in the air yards per game (109.2), and he posted 110 in Week 1 against Tennessee despite getting the L’Jarius Snead treatment.

Successful fantasy teams are built around Sutton types and run into a breakout season or two. Try to remember that. Looking for the diamond in the rough is important, but holding a diamond that was sitting right in front of you has value as well.

Darius Slayton (at Cowboys)

Darius Slayton led the Giants in routes run (44), but I watched the entire game and had no idea (one target).

Malik Nabers is a target vacuum, and that’s naturally not going to leave much meat on the bone for any of his teammates, but that hurts a player like Wan’Dale Robinson more than Slayton.

You’re never betting on volume here; you’re betting on a single play that makes all of your dreams come true. Slayton is more of a DFS option in the right spots than a realistic redraft player, and that’s not breaking news.

Could he hit big against Dallas? He’s skilled enough that one splash play is never out of the question. Still, the Boys were more vulnerable on shallow passes than deep ones (12th best by passer rating downfield, 32nd otherwise) last year, thus fueling my preference for Robinson over Slayton as the WR2 in New York.

“Preference” might be a bit misleading: neither Robinson nor Slayton ranks among my top 50 receivers this week.

Darnell Mooney (at Vikings)

Darnell Mooney is coming off a career year in terms of fantasy production relative to expectation, fantasy points per target, and yards per route. The success was great to see after a pair of down seasons with the Bears, and it resurfaced the idea of him being a legitimate WR2 in a productive offense.

Any momentum he built entering 2025, however, was lost with a summer shoulder injury that cost him the season opener against the Buccaneers. This offense could certainly use a consistent WR2 to aid the development of Michael Penix Jr. But with Bijan Robinson and, jokes aside, Kyle Pitts as viable target earners, I think it’s fair to label Mooney’s 2024 production as a ceiling when it comes to per-game output.

This is a situation to watch closely. Your IR spot isn’t overly valuable this early in the season, but should this injury linger, there’s a good chance you are asked to make a tough decision, and I’m not going to be fighting hard to keep Mooney rostered if that’s the case.

Davante Adams (at Titans)

Davante Adams caught 50% of his targets in Sunday’s win over the Texans, while all of his teammates caught 85%. You could leverage that stat to build a “he’s washed” case if you wanted to, but I think he just ran a little cold against a strong defense.

It happens.

He could draw some L’Jarius Snead attention in this game, and that’s not great, but if you’re telling me he gets eight Matthew Stafford targets, I’m telling you he’s a top-25 WR.

And that’s right where I have him. Puka Nacua is great, but he can’t do it all, and I trust Stafford to put a touchdown-scoring savant like Adams in positions to be successful. I have Adams ranked as a low-end WR2 this week, in the same range as Tetairoa McMillan and the always-stable Jakobi Meyers.

DeAndre Hopkins (vs. Browns)

The highlight reel catch in a game that’ll be remembered for years to come was fun, but I don’t find it all that predictive.

Opportunities are going to be difficult to come by in this offense (if you watched on Sunday night, outside of the fumble, Derrick Henry was building a solid case to hand him the ball 100% of the time), and that’s only going to be more true when Isiah Likely returns.

Don’t forget that the Chiefs brought Hopkins in the middle of last season, and by the playoffs, they saw the future Hall of Famer catch three balls in three games. He was a good story in Week 1, but I’m not in any hurry to scoop him off the waiver wires right now.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (at Packers)

There was concern across the fantasy industry that Deebo Samuel was cooked and that the Commanders were simply chasing a ghost in terms of his productive days (à la Buffalo with Amari Cooper last season or how many viewed the DeAndre Hopkins signing by the Ravens this summer).

Maybe that proves accurate if his body can no longer withstand the same level of punishment it once did, but he looked dynamic over the weekend, and it’s clear that Washington is interested in giving him as much work as he can handle.

He was the first Commander with multiple targets in the Week 1 win over the Giants and finished as the sixth-highest scoring at the position (more catches than any of his teammates had targets).

I’m encouraged by the usage and production, but over the next four months, I still expect Terry McLaurin to be the clear WR1 for this offense.

That, however, doesn’t mean that Samuel can’t produce. The run game is still TBD (Bill Croskey-Merritt had the big run late to seal the deal, but things are thin there, and Samuel certainly has the type of versatile profile that can add value in a variety of ways), and there isn’t much in the way of target competition as you move down this depth chart.

You’re looking at my WR33 this week. I don’t love a veteran like this on a short week against an improved defense, but you could do worse. For context, I have the hot pickup of the week in Hollywood Brown one spot higher and would also play Rome Odunze/George Pickens over him.

That said, he does check in above the very talented, but spotty situations tier that includes the Tyreek Hills and Chris Olaves of the world.

DeMario Douglas (at Dolphins)

DeMario Douglas had a 7.3-PPR point catch in the first quarter, and his other six targets against the Raiders totaled 0.5 PPR points.

That’s not going to work.

Douglas’ career aDOT is under seven yards (Sunday: 5.4 yards), and that means that he needs to be incredibly efficient to make it worth your while.

Two catches for -2 yards isn’t exactly that.

In fact, it’s the opposite. Being that bad in that role is difficult to comprehend. I think better times are ahead, but that’s not exactly saying much. It’s possible that Douglas turns into a low-level flex option (he did earn multiple end zone targets in a game for the first time in his career on Sunday) and/or bye-week replacement with time, but with zero teams on a bye and still relatively good health league-wide, that time is not now.

Judging by your Start/Sit Tool, you guys weren’t considering Douglas as a viable option last week, and that’s the correct mindset to take this weekend. I’m keeping him rostered because I do think the growth of Drake Maye could give Douglas a Khalil Shakir-like trajectory with time, though that’s not something I’m betting on in the short-term.

DeVonta Smith (at Chiefs)

This might be the least talked about sub-5 PPR point performance by a player started across the board in recent memory.

DeVonta Smith opened his 2025 with an airball against the Cowboys, turning his three targets into just 4.6 fantasy points. Low-volume games are likely to occur in Philadelphia due to the nature of their offensive structure, but the four total air yards were a little painful to see (2024: 68.6 per game).

It’s not that Smith doesn’t have the type of wiggle to turn short targets into game-breaking plays; he very much does, but he ranked third in points per deep target a year ago. Even if it’s just a token target to loosen up the defense, running Smith vertically makes a ton of sense and plays a part in fueling what we are hoping is another season as a strong fantasy WR2.

We saw him haul in four of five targets against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last season, and a 46-yard score highlighted that performance. So no, I’m not pivoting off of Smith, but I am a little concerned about the target type.

He’s never going to be a volume target earner in Philadelphia, and that makes his fantasy stock more sensitive to any change in role. Again, I’m not asking him to be DeSean Jackson from yesteryear for this franchise, but establishing the threat of him is vital for his upside, considering that his floor will always be low in an offense built around the ground game.

DJ Moore (at Lions)

The talk coming out of Monday night’s loss was more focused on Rome Odunze and less on DJ Moore, something that I just don’t understand.

Moore saw a few deep targets, including a bad misfire from Caleb Williams that would have shifted entirely the Tuesday morning narrative, and was handed the ball three times.

Not those gadgety types of handoffs out of some exotic formation. Designed and directed handoffs. They were “we haven’t gotten you the ball enough, see what you can do with this” sort of plays.

That’s what we love to see.

Moore earned double-digit targets in both games against the Lions a year ago, and with the offensive genius now on his side, I don’t imagine we’ll see that regression in a major way.

Odunze might well take the fantasy WR1 role from Moore in this offense by season’s end, but we aren’t there yet. I’ve moved seven spots higher in my positional Week 2 rankings and am comfortable starting him wherever I have him after watching the Packers dominate the Lions over the weekend.

DK Metcalf (vs. Seahawks)

The Seahawks embraced DK Metcalf as one of their own back in 2019. As a young pup out of Ole Miss, Seattle drafted him in the second round, saw Pete Carroll rip off his shirt in an effort to muscle up with the prep, and nurtured him to fantasy goodness with three 1,000-yard seasons and a pair of double-digit touchdown campaigns.

All, however, is fair in love and war, and now, Metcalf is the host. Seattle is coming to his new house, and instead of an aging head coach to buddy up next to, he has a quarterback who is 15 years older than Google.

OK, so maybe it’s not the most intimidating set-up of all time, but it’s a revenge game nonetheless, and Metcalf is coming off of a fine first showing with the Steelers (4-83-0 on seven targets). Aaron Rodgers made a point to get him involved early, hitting him for gains of 23 and 31 yards in the first quarter before diversifying his targets a little bit more as the game wore on.

This Seahawks defense is capable of getting home, and that is where we will learn something. Rodgers was pressured on just five of his 30 attempts in a revenge game of his own last week. If that rate rises on Sunday, does Metcalf’s upside tank? Does it spike, as he’s the clear-cut first ready with regularity?

Only time will tell on that front, but I like what I saw in Week 1 enough to make him an acceptable WR2 in all formats.

Drake London (at Vikings)

Drake London suffered a shoulder sprain over the weekend, and while it sounds like more of a day-to-day thing than week-to-week, it at least deserves your tracking as we near kickoff.

That allows us to take the off-ramp of a lineup construction PSA: put banged-up players in your flex if possible at all. It sounds simple, but I often get questions on X (at KyleSoppePFN) where this basic strategy is overlooked. In doing this, you open yourself up to more options should the player end up being scratched.

In this instance, you’d have the option of replacing London with an RB/WR/TE, not just a WR, should we get news late.

OK, now that I’ve said that, nothing London did in Week 1 surprised me. We knew that he’d be in the mix for the most targeted player in the NFL, and he came through on that with 15 looks against the Bucs.

We also knew that there would be some growing pains shown by Michael Penix, which is reflected in the repulsive 4.6 yards per target.

Use last week as a baseline. I think you can expect London to score 12 to 15 PPR points more often than not, understanding that tail performances will be a part of the story with a young QB under center.

Check to make sure everything is good to go before kickoff, but assuming it is, you’re starting London as you usually would, even against a defense as aggressive as the Vikings.

Emeka Egbuka (at Texans)

The later we got into the draft process this summer, the more obvious it became that Emeka Egbuka was priced incorrectly. A late surge got his ADP inside of the top 40 at the position and top 85 overall, but it’s clear now that it’s more of a floor outcome for him in his rookie season.

His debut wasn’t high in quantity, but quality wasn’t an issue as he scored twice and finished as WR4 for the week. The go-ahead touchdown was perfect all the way around: a crisp route from Egbuka himself, an attention-seeking route from Mike Evans that sucked in the safety, and a dime from Baker Mayfield.

That catch allowed him to join Hollywood Brown (2019) as the only players in the 2000s to have multiple 25+ yard TD catches in their professional debut, and it feels like just the beginning.

We will see how the targets are distributed when a fully healthy Chris Godwin returns, but that won’t be on Monday night. Even in a below-average matchup, I have both Evans and Egbuka slotted as WR2s.

Garrett Wilson (vs. Bills)

The first game of the Justin Fields/Garrett Wilson era certainly went off with a bang, as this tandem looked comfortable in lighting up a Steelers defense that we think is pretty solid.

Wilson hauled in a 33-yard score (29 air yards, the most on a touchdown of his young career) and later had a long play that probably should have resulted in a touchdown but saw him be brought down at the two-yard line.

Even with iffy QB play in the past, Wilson has scored at least 13.8 PPR points in five of six career games against the Bills, finding paydirt in three of the past four. It’s not crazy that a talent like Wilson has had success in a specific matchup, but the efficiency is a bit surprising, all things considered.

The entire Jets team had an airball on the road in November of 2023, but outside of that, he’s caught at least 80% of his targets every time he plays the boys from Upstate New York.

I wouldn’t normally put any stock into that, but it’s hard to think that the QB play he gets this week isn’t better than what he’s had in the past. Is it possible that his profile just matches up well with this system? Bobby Babich hasn’t been the DC for the entire time, but he has been part of this defensive staff in one capacity or another since 2017.

I’ve got Wilson easily inside of my top 20 at the position this week, a ranking I expect to stick for most weeks this season.

George Pickens (vs. Giants)

The Cowboys introduced George Pickens to their fanbase on Thursday night, and he delivered a very “high school boyfriend meeting dad for the first time” performance.

He opened up with a firm handshake (six-yard gain on Dak Prescott’s first throw of the season) and made strong eye contact early on (first-quarter 34-yard DPI flag drawn). You love to see it.

But we are dealing with a 16-year-old boyfriend analogy, so this doesn’t end well. He choked on mom’s cooking (three targets earned on 32 routes after that first play) and couldn’t answer the “what are your intentions with my daughter” question with grace (unnecessary roughness penalty in the third quarter on what proved to be Dallas’ last good scoring chance:

First crash out by George Pickens. #Steelers #NFL pic.twitter.com/DeN1K8o3Th

— Blitzburgh (@Blitz_Burgh) September 5, 2025

On the bright side, he isn’t the first player to struggle in his debut with a new team or flunk a parent introduction. A non-CeeDee Lamb Cowboys pass catcher reached double figures in terms of PPR points in both games against the Giants last season, thus making a bounce-back effort very possible.

I maintain my general stance that Pickens can be a flex-worthy player in this pass-oriented offense. Lamb is a threat to lead the league in targets, and that naturally limits the ceiling of a player like Pickens, but his skill set is that of a player who can do a lot with a little if the connection with Dak Prescott develops.

I was encouraged by Prescott posting a 9.7-yard aDOT, and if downfield aggression sticks as a part of this offense, better days are ahead for Pickens, potentially as soon as this week. Even after a dud in Week 1, he’s a fine flex play for me this weekend.

Hollywood Brown (vs. Eagles)

Hollywood Brown caught 60 passes in his 16 games before Week 1, but following the Xavier Worthy injury, he lit up the Chargers for 10 grabs and 99 yards in one of the more surprising performances of the week.

It’s not going to stick, but that’s not a Brown thing. It’s a math thing. No one sustains a 42.1% target share, so let’s take a step back and evaluate the most likely range of outcomes moving forward.

With Worthy out for the short term, I think there is some PPR appeal to chase this week and possibly for the rest of the month. On Friday night, 75% of his targets came less than 10 yards down the field (career rate prior: 57.6%), and we have a half-decade sample when it comes to defenses wanting to put an umbrella on Patrick Mahomes-led offenses.

all four of Patrick Mahomes’ 20+ yard passes vs the Chargers

all 3 of Tyquan Thornton’s downfield shots saw him lined up against Cam Hart – clearly a matchup the Chiefs targeted

and the last completion off script to Hollywood Brown is SO absurd pic.twitter.com/sEJOMtj0cd

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 6, 2025

I think he’s a fancy Wan’Dale Robinson. The volume should be there, and the quality of look is obviously high with Mahomes pulling the trigger, but I’m not sold on Brown as much of a run-after-catch threat (under 4.0 YAC in both seasons with the Cardinals), and I do think Travis Kelce is more involved this week than last.

We saw the other side of the coin with Brown early in the opener with a bad third-down drop, and that’s a reminder that he’s far from a perfect option. I hate to say it, but I think this is a low-possession game with both teams leaning into their ground games, and that means Brown giving us half of what he did in Week 1 is roughly what I have projected.

Ja’Marr Chase (vs. Jaguars)

Through two weeks last season, Ja’Marr Chase was on pace for 85 catches, 825 yards, and zero touchdowns.

You might have heard, but in case you didn’t, he finished with 127 catches for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns.

I have no issue in counting on your Bengals this week. In DFS circles, this might be the best spot possible to get them. The “early season” narrative is sweeping the nation when it comes to analyzing this team, but now they get a Jacksonville team that made moves this offseason to suggest that they want to try to score with teams more than stop them.

From the Liam Coen hiring to the Travis Hunter snap distribution, this doesn’t feel like a team that wants to play in 17-16 sort of games. With a 49.5-point listed total, no one is expecting that to be the case on Sunday.

Bengals win.

Bengals cover.

All of your Bengals deliver on expectations.

Jakobi Meyers (vs. Chargers)

Jakobi Meyers was the first Raider to have multiple receptions last week and went on to finish as their top player in both catches and targets (30.3% share).

Surprised?

You probably shouldn’t be.

Per-game metrics since Week 8, 2024:

• Meyers: 15.9 points, 6.4 catches, 101.0 air yards
• Drake London: 15.6 points, 5.8 catches, 115.1 air yards
• Terry McLaurin: 15.5 points, 4.5 catches, 89.6 air yards
• Garrett Wilson: 14.9 points, 5.6 catches, 80.6 air yards
• A.J. Brown: 13.9 points, 4.7 catches, 79.3 air yards
• Tyreek Hill: 13.6 points, 5.1 catches, 82.8 air yards

That seemingly random starting point was Meyers’ first game following the trade of Davante Adams. He’s seen 9+ targets in eight of those 11 games, and it’s not as if his production has come at the expense of Brock Bowers, so what is stopping you from playing him?

I will say that I don’t love this matchup. The Chargers were the best short pass defense in the league last season, and if that spreads the range of possible outcomes, maybe you have two receivers and a flex that I prefer, but that’s not overly likely.

Meyers is a low-end WR2 for me, this week and until I’m given a reason to pivot.

Jalen Coker (at Cardinals)

I was excited about Jalen Coker early in the draft process this summer, thinking that the second-year receiver had a real chance to earn meaningful targets in a developing offense. That optimism grew after the Adam Thielen trade, but a day later, a “significant quad injury” landed him on IR.

That means Coker will miss at least the next three games, and all reporting out of Carolina has a mid-October return as the most optimistic. I still believe there’s something in this profile, but Xavier Legette will have every chance to earn more work. That leaves Coker as a drop in all formats — unless you can stash him in a free IR slot. Even then, the odds are strong that a player with a clearer path to production will go down this month.

I’m not selling all of my Coker stock because Carolina gets New Orleans and Tampa Bay in Weeks 15-16, but you can buy back in after Halloween and likely not experience any loss in value.

Jalen McMillan (at Texans)

Jalen McMillan showed up in spurts as a rookie, but scoring on 21.6% of receptions isn’t stable. Nor was the 17.8-yard average depth of target on those touchdowns.

There were plenty of holes to poke in this profile. Still, the drafting of Emeka Egbuka has him fighting for playing time and thus a non-factor in most formats when healthy, which clearly isn’t the case after a scary injury this preseason (currently on IR with an absence that extends beyond the required four games, viewed as the most likely outcome).

There is some athletic ability here, which means spike plays are bound to happen, but I don’t expect the route/target count to be high enough to garner our interest. If this turns into a WR rotation, we can adjust. But for the time being, McMillan is a player who holds contingent value when active, and that’s about it.

You’re not going this direction unless you have an IR spot burning a hole in your pocket.

Jameson Williams (vs. Bears)

My interest is piqued.

Not every game is going to look like Sunday did for the reigning NFC North champs, but it was an ugly showing, and it was the first data point we got in their world post-Ben Johnson.

Given the changes on the coaching staff, is it possible that we have a new role for Jameson Williams?

• Week 1: 5.4 aDOT, 11.6% target rate
• 2024: 11.6 aDOT, 19.2% target rate

I’m not sounding the alarm after 60 bad minutes, but if this proves sticky, Williams is going to have a hard time hitting your lineup, let alone returning value on the fifth-round pick you spent on him this summer.

I suspect we get clarity this weekend, for better or worse.

Last season, JaMo caught five of seven targets in both games against Chicago, but with very different results:

• Week 13: 28 yards, 9.6 PPR points, 6.6 aDOT
• Week 16: 143 yards, TD, 26 PPR points, 14.2 aDOT

I’m cautiously optimistic, but this Bears defense looked improved on Monday night. Williams is a low-end WR3/Flex for me this weekend, ranking behind Rome Odunze as a promising young receiver taking the field in this matchup.

Jauan Jennings (at Saints)

The shoulder injury that Jauan Jennings suffered in Week 1 isn’t believed to be serious and that gives him a shot to return sooner than later, but this team did go out and bring back Kendrick Bourne, a sign that they are at least a little concerned.

I think Jennings can play, and nothing about the Saints scares me, but with George Kittle sidelined and Brock Purdy gimpy, why play with fire?

I’m not sold he plays, but even if he does, I’d rather take my medicine with a Wan’Dale Robinson type, lock in a high floor, and be on my way. If you’re more of a risk-taker, play Marvin Mims (at IND) or Rashid Shaheed on the other side of this matchup.

I’m not anti-risk; I’m anti-reckless risk, and this feels like Jennings should strap on a harness and take the field.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at Steelers)

I missed plenty of calls last week, but I was in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba as my WR13 and a DFS building block (sign up for the PFSN Betting newsletter if you want a DFS walkthrough weekly!) against the 49ers, and it paid off (WR11: 19.4 PPR points).

I think we can expect more of the same this week, and it wouldn’t shock me if we consider JSN a matchup-proof commodity in relatively short order.

His 59.1% target share last week was bananas and isn’t sustainable, but the idea that Sam Darnold is going to funnel the offense through him until the defense proves they have an answer is what we wanted to see.

Also good to see was the 47.8% bump in average depth of target from a season ago.

I’ll be tracking that, but if it sticks, this could be a top-10 receiver for the season. The Steelers defense has talent, but Garrett Wilson did get loose for 7-95-1 against them last weekend, and I expect Smith-Njigba to have another productive week at the office in this spot.

Jayden Higgins (vs. Buccaneers)

I suppose I could use the same write-up for both Jayen Higgins and Jaylin Noel, as neither rookie was given much of a chance to shine in the loss to the Rams. Despite a game script that favored the pass and the absence of Kirk, the team chose not to extend their rookies.

Interesting call, but I’m sitting on my couch and probably know less about the readiness of their prospects than they do, so I’ll trust it.

If they weren’t ready for Week 1, I can’t imagine they are much more ready for Week 2.

Higgins was the only Texan to see multiple deep targets last week, and that’s why I prefer him to Noel if forced to choose, as his contingent value feels higher should something happen to Nico Collins.

That said, the Texans couldn’t even get the real Collins the ball against the Rams, so why would we think that an injury replacement would have any luck?

None of the secondary Houston WRs should be near starting lineups right now, and I’m not sure any of them need to be rostered in average-sized leagues.

Jayden Reed (vs. Commanders)

Jayden Reed playing through this injury feels like an odd decision for a team hoping to play meaningful games in January, but it’s not my day to run the organization.

Jordan Love spreads the ball around, and that’s not going to change, no matter how healthy Reed is or isn’t. He was able to find the end zone last weekend against the Lions and has proven good for two touchdown catches a month over the course of his career, but is a compromised version of him seeing five targets really all that appealing?

It’s not for me.

He feels like an in-game flight risk, and the ceiling isn’t nearly high enough in this rotation to take on that sort of risk.

RELATED: Week 2 Fantasy Football Injury Tracker: Updates Include Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, George Kittle

There will come a time in October when you’re hurting at receiver and place value on Reed being a part of a potent offense. In that situation, you’ll be willing to overlook the red flags because it’s go this route or roll the dice on Jalen Nailor. In that situation, playing Reed is fine. In Week 2, with reasonable health across the league and all 32 teams in action, you don’t have to do it.

Reed sits outside of my top-40 receivers this week, a short one for the Pack.

Jaylen Waddle (vs. Patriots)

Week 1 in Indianapolis was a dumpster fire for the Dolphins and, to be honest, that feels disrespectful to dumpster fires.

Jaylen Waddle caught four of five targets, a level of efficiency that you’d expect with a 4.4-yard aDOT, but the shine appears to be off of this system, as he did well to pick up the 30 yards he did.

You could argue that this matchup is a get-right spot for Waddle and, in theory, I don’t hate the call. The Pats were the worst defense by passer rating on short passes, and that’s exactly how Waddle was utilized on Sunday. It’s also how he has burned them in the past:

Career game log vs. Patriots, (Tagovailoa Starts)

Week 1, 2021: 4 catches on 5 targets for 61 yards, TD
Week 18, 2021: 5 catches on 7 targets for 27 yards, TD
Week 1, 2022: 4 catches on 5 targets for 69 yards, TD
Week 2, 2023: 4 catches on 6 targets for 86 yards
Week 8, 2023: 7 catches on 12 targets for 121 yards, TD
Week 12, 2024: 8 catches on 9 targets for 144 yards, TD

That was all “in theory.” In practice, I’m not sure I have the courage to act on any of that. If you want Miami exposure, try a contrarian DFS build. Still, in a season-long setting, this team as a whole (outside of De’Von Achane) is at the “prove it to me” level of concern, and I’m not sure one strong performance would be enough for me to go back to this offense with confidence.

Jaylin Noel (vs. Buccaneers)

Christian Kirk was sidelined with a hamstring injury for the openers, and we assumed that would open the door for Houston’s rookie class to have a chance to impress from the jump.

No dice.

Instead of putting Jaylin Noel and/or Jayden Higgins on the field with regularity, the Texans went the hodgepodge route.

Texans WR route count, Week 1:

• Nico Collins: 30
• Xavier Hutchinson: 23
• Justin Watson: 18
• Higgins: 14
• Noel: 13

If they had more warm bodies on the active roster at the WR position, I’m sure they would have gotten some run as well. In the loss, none of them excelled, and while it sounds like Kirk could be shelved for a bit longer, I’m not ranking any non-Collins player on this team as a starter.

If you want to hold either Higgins or Noel, fine by me, but understand that it’s a lottery ticket, and moving on the second you need reinforcements is 100% viable.

Jerry Jeudy (at Ravens)

Jerry Jeudy earned 21 targets in two games against Baltimore last season (11 catches for 142 yards), with seven of those catches coming on passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield.

He was able to get home for fantasy managers in a tough spot because of volume, but are we sure that’s still a good bet these days?

At face value, the eight targets from last week’s nail-biting loss to the Bengals look good, but Cleveland threw the ball 42 times, and three of Jeudy’s teammates at least matched that total.

Now, I do think the Browns are going to be forced into passing the ball more than they want regularly, so maybe my concerns fall on deaf ears, but if the target distribution is going to be flat like this, I’m having a hard time ranking Jeudy as a WR2.

Tillman is physically challenging to match up with, and I don’t think he goes away. He saw Cleveland’s lone end zone target during Week 1, and while I still prefer Jeudy to him, the idea of that gap closing means Jeudy’s floor/ceiling combination is a growing concern.

For me, Jeudy is squarely in that Tyreek Hill, Chris Olave, and Michael Pittman ranking range. That quartet, despite having plenty of talent, sits outside my top 30 at the position this week, with “safer” options like Jakobi Meyers and Khalil Shakir being less exciting players that I have more confidence in.

Jordan Addison (vs. Falcons)

Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games this season (Atlanta this week and Cincinnati next) due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. He’s proven himself plenty worthy of waiting on, but he is a major regression candidate (TD on 8.2% of his career targets) and is missing out on a favorable run to open the season.

On the bright side, it’s highly unlikely that a receiver steps up in his absence in such a way that will impact his season-long projection. You’re looking at a player who could be volatile every week, but as a featured option in a Kevin O’Connell offense, trusting the process is the play.

Josh Downs (vs. Broncos)

Josh Downs has caught over 68% of his career passes, an impressive accomplishment given that the Colts rank 28th in passer rating and 31st in completion percentage over that stretch.

A hamstring injury cost him time late in the preseason process, and that has me taking this as more of a wait-and-see situation. He ranked fifth on this team in routes run in Week 1 (17, trailing Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Jonathan Taylor, and Tyler Warren) in the beatdown of the Dolphins, and a ramping-up process seems to be the play.

Downs is a talented player in an offense that is begging for someone to earn targets at a high rate, but with just 21 red zone targets (10 catches) in 32 career games, the volume of looks isn’t a “nice to have” as much as it is a “need to have.”

If the Colts are as committed to Daniel Jones as they sound, that’s good news long-term for Downs and gives him a decent chance to be a lineup staple. I’m not banking on him this week, but if he can prove his health and a nice connection with Mr. Dimes, he could be in the flex conversation as soon as next week at Tennessee.

For the sake of giving you hope, the Colts end the fantasy season with consecutive home games in favorable spots (49ers and Jaguars). At face value, that’s obviously a value boost, but the impact grows when you consider that, for his career, Downs averages 42.1% more yards per route when playing indoors than out.

Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren looked great in Week 1, something that is certainly concerning for the stock of Downs. I’m not panicking yet. I want to see what a fully healthy version of this offense looks like before projecting Downs as a clear-cut third option that won’t have a significant impact on fantasy purposes.

Joshua Palmer (at Jets)

Not every game the Bills play is going to be a 41-40 instant classic, but the team did spend all summer talking up Joshua Palmer, and they backed it up in Week 1.

• 40 routes
• 9 targets
• 117 air yards
• 1 end zone target

There’s a lot to like in that profile, especially for an offense that has been searching for playmakers at the wide receiver position for a few years now. In 2023, we caught glimpses of spikeability from Palmer, and I’m not the least bit interested in betting against Josh Allen, so yeah, Palmer has my attention.

Even with that lead-in, we are still a ways away from him entering the flex conversation for me. This game figures to pace down in a major way compared to last week, and he’s still in a three-way fight for targets behind Khalil Shakir’s stable role on the short routes.

For the rest of the season, I prefer Keon Coleman to Palmer, and that is driving my projection. Still, Palmer was more impressive than the second-year running back for three quarters of Week 1, and that has me at least considering the idea of him being the field stretcher in Upstate New York this year.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. Eagles)

JuJu Smith-Schuster was the first Chief WR not named Xavier Worthy to see a target last week (six-yard reception), and the next play was a bomb for Tyquan Thornton (2022 second-round pick who spent three seasons with the Patriots after averaging 15.7 yards per catch during a four-year collegiate career at Baylor).

And then we got the Hollywood Brown experience.

I think that’s what is in line for us as long as the Worthy/Rice tandem is sidelined: randomness.

None of Smith-Schuster’s five targets against the Chargers (five catches for 55 yards) were thrown more than 10 yards downfield, a role that got him into double-digit PPR points because of how the game ran out along with the ineffective run game.

Not all Chief games look like that. And even if we knew that this game was going to follow a similar script, Brown still more than tripled Smith-Schuster’s usage while filling a similar role.

Yes, Smith-Schuster is worthy of an add; his path to regular routes in a Mahomes-led offense is simply too clear. That said, I need to see more before looking this direction for my PPR flex, even in deeper PPR formats.

Justin Jefferson (vs. Falcons)

Justin Jefferson feels inevitable at times. Most of the time, actually.

Randy Moss called out a Jefferson touchdown on the Monday Night Manning Cast, and the best receiver in the sport promptly delivered. It took some time, and the touchdown saved you, but I’m not going to complain with a 35% target share in J.J. McCarthy’s first start.

It didn’t take long for Jefferson to prove that the Sam Darnold worries weren’t worth much last season (TD in four straight games to open the season, 80+ receiving yards in seven straight after a slow-ish Week 1), and we could see something awfully similar in this new era.

There isn’t a scheme out there that can stop Jefferson for 60 minutes, and that is what made him an appealing first-round pick, even with offensive uncertainty around him.

Keenan Allen (at Raiders)

If it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck.

Patterns are noted for a reason, and it’s because they are accurate in most cases. Not all, but most. They give us guardrails in life when it comes to expectations. When your child should speak for the first time, or the temperature it’s supposed to be in the middle of September.

Things like that, we have a general expectation for. Outliers happen, but more often than not, the pattern is accurate, which is why we operate under the assumptions that we do.

Keenan Allen turned 33 years of age in April and was a free agent until five weeks ago. When the NFL tells you that they aren’t interested in a player, history would suggest that, on the whole, fantasy managers shouldn’t be either.

If it shakes like an outlier and bakes like an outlier.

Allen was targeted on six of Justin Herbert’s first 18 targets in the season opener, including a sharp route that picked up seven yards on third-and-six. I was skeptical of how sticky Allen’s 2022 was, as he posted his fantasy efficiency and end zone volume were both high-water marks since his rookie season.

Was that simply the result of a young situation in Chicago where the old man in town was the only one who really knew how to operate?

I don’t think so. Not anymore.

Allen looked awfully fresh in the season opener, earning 10 targets on 32 routes (31.3% target rate, career average: 25.8%) and clearly benefiting from the strides made by Herbert since they last joined forces.

2022 with LAC: 103 catches for 1,243 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Let me be clear: I don’t think that stat line is being repeated. But with Ladd McConkey proving that he can kick outside and still be productive, there is very much a short-yardage role for PPR managers to chase here.

This summer, he was going 60 picks behind Jakobi Meyers. Those two will be in the same stadium on Monday night, and my projections for them are eerily similar the rest of the way. Ceiling weeks aren’t going to happen on any consistent basis, but a consistent double-digit point-producer is something every fantasy team needs, and that’s probably selling this outlier a bit short.

Allen is worth considering in flex leagues with 12+ teams, something I didn’t think I’d be saying by Halloween, let alone in September.

Keon Coleman (at Jets)

Keon Coleman, like most of the Bills, was a ghost for the better part of three quarters on Sunday night, but that’s why they play 60 minutes.

The second-year receiver scored 22.5 PPR points in the final stanza (no other flex player reached even 13.5 fourth-quarter points). The deep targets are one thing, the deflected touchdown is another, but how about five targets coming no more than 10 yards downfield?

We saw some route development from Marvin Harrison Jr. over the weekend, and if this is the start of that for Coleman, could he be the bona fide WR1 that Upstate New York has been thirsting for?

I’m not there yet, and I still have Coleman hovering around WR40 in my Week 2 ranks (alongside veterans like Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen), but I’ll be locked into this game and ready to act.

Last season, Coleman saw 11 targets on 53 routes against Gang Green, but picked up just 53 yards in the process, and that’s not going to cut it. I’m optimistic that we’ll get a Buffalo receiver into the top 25 next week; I’m just not sure if it’ll be Coleman or Khalil Shakir.

Khalil Shakir (at Jets)

If the high ankle sprain from the offseason was bothering Khalil Shakir in Week 1, he fooled me. In the game of the week with the Ravens, he ran 46 routes, earned nine targets, and caught six passes.

Rinse repeat. Right?

Ehhh, there might be something cooking in Buffalo.

Shakir had three deep targets on Sunday night, matching his highest mark from last season. In fact, if you look at his last five fantasy-relevant games, he’s seen three deep targets in three of them.

Are we quietly extending his route tree while also giving him enough volume on high-percentage looks to stabilize his floor?

I need one more week of seeing it, but if I do, I’ll be offering Shakir-centered trades in every league I’m in.

The reason I need to see it one more week isn’t a sample-size thing; it’s an opponent thing. The Jets held Shakir to 44 yards on 35 routes last season, shutting off his water almost completely once the Bills crossed midfield (one catch in New York territory across those games).

If this new version of Shakir can get loose against a defense that is familiar with stopping the old version, then I’m sold. He’s my WR37 as it is this week, making him a low-end flex play in PPR leagues, but should we get a usage line that mirrors what we saw last week, he’s going to be ranked as a WR2 for me against the Dolphins on Thursday night to kick off Week 3.

You’ve been warned.

Kyle Williams (at Dolphins)

Kyle Williams ran just five routes in his NFL debut last weekend against the Raiders. He caught his only target (12 yards). In the loss to the Raiders, Williams and 10 of his friends saw a target, a level of distribution that will make it impossible for a very fringe guy in deeper formats to hold any value whatsoever.

I know it was his introduction to the NFL, but he wasn’t even close to being a part of the plan, and that was in a game where DeMario Douglas turned seven targets into negative-2 yards.

I understand the idea of rostering a player like Williams in dynasty formats; you’re hoping that Drake Maye’s development can be a rising tide that lifts all youthful boats, but outside of that, there’s no need to hold steady.

Ladd McConkey (at Raiders)

I’m not sure it’s possible to be more impressed with how stable Ladd McConkey’s game is, considering he’s still two months shy of his 24th birthday.

Sure, we’ve seen prospects come into the pros and offer more immediately in the way of per-target upside. But McConkey plays as if he’s been identifying defenses and exposing pros for a decade.

As a rookie, he earned a 23.4% on-field target share with an average depth of look of 10.2 yards.

In Week 1, he earned a 23.7% on-field target share with an average depth of 10.3 yards.

That’s amazing consistency at face value, but when you consider that his slot rate shrank from 66% last season to 48.1% against the Chiefs, it’s borderline mind-boggling.

His route tree is far beyond his years, and it seems like the best is yet to come. McConkey totaled 13.4 PPR points on Friday night, and maybe that’s not exactly what you were looking for, given that the Bolts scored 27 points, but if Justin Herbert puts a little more air on a slant-and-go late in the second quarter, you’re looking at a 31-yard touchdown and a top-10 day at the office.

He pulled in five balls in both meetings with Vegas last season, but they were able to bottle him up to some degree. In those contests, six of his 10 catches gained no more than 10 yards, a rate that was well above his rate against the rest of the league as a rookie (41.7%).

Consider me not worried.

He was effectively just running to the sticks in those games. I’m expecting him to showcase his growth and impress again. If you have McConkey on your roster and can keep your matchup reasonably close through the weekend, I think you’re going to have every chance to get across the finish line in the second game of the Monday Night doubleheader.

Luther Burden III (at Lions)

It’s a no for me, dawg.

I’m not in the business of overreacting, but if you need to move on from Luther Burden after one career game, I have no issue with that. Sure, I might be jumping the gun, but if you’re pressed or really like someone out there on waivers, I say go for it.

In his NFL debut, Burden caught his only target and lost three yards with it. This offense was humming early and, even though it stalled with time, has all the traits of a Ben Johnson scheme.

Prioritize completions and efficiency.

In doing so, we saw running backs and tight ends account for 12 targets. We also saw Rome Odunze’s average depth of target be scaled back in a major way, propelling him to a six-catch performance on a team-best nine looks.

DJ Moore ended up leading the team in receiving yards (68) and was handed the ball on three occasions. This is going to be an exotic offense that could be a good fit for Burden in time, but not with the collection of players he has to vault over right now.

Against the Vikings, he ranked seventh on this team in routes (six ran over 20 routes while he checked in with nine), and that’s a tough sell, even if you like the prospect profile.

I’m holding in dynasty situations, though expectations need to be adjusted if you were hoping for Year 1 value.

Malik Nabers (at Cowboys)

Malik Nabers fell out of bed into double-digit targets, and he did that again over the weekend in Washington, but he hauled in just five of 12 for 71 yards and was held out of the end zone.

The Giants were a mess, and Nabers still gets you a dozen PPR points, something that feels like his floor given the role in an offense that figures to be operating with an aggressive script more often than not this season.

The quarterback situation is what it is. Russell Wilson’s status as passively threatened this week, and while a change won’t be made for now, I’m not sure it matters.

The limitations of this offense as a whole are going to keep Nabers out of my top tier at the position. Still, the overwhelming nature of opportunities makes it impossible to rank him outside of the top 15.

Last season, he earned 28 targets on his 77 routes against Dallas as a rookie, totaling 20 catches and 184 yards in the process. In those contests, the Giants made it a point to get their best player involved – the majority of those receptions came no more than five yards down the field.

The Cowboys are coming off a historically bad season in terms of defending the red zone, and Wilson may be playing for his job: this is about as optimistic as I’m going to get for Nabers to find paydirt, and that’s why he’s my WR3 for this week.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (vs. Panthers)

We might be onto something in Arizona. Marvin Harrison Jr. came into the league last season with incredible expectations, but he ultimately underwhelmed. Part of that is our fault as an industry. Arizona seemed aware of some shortcomings and tried to work around them as best they could.

I still have some questions about his versatility, but Week 1 was certainly a step in the right direction (5-71-1), even if it came in New Orleans against a team favored to pick first overall in April.

2024 Splits:

• First quarter: 4.94 PPG, 52.8% over expectation
• Quarters 2-4: 6.62 PPG, 18.1% below expectation

Harrison was schemed up to look like a rookie and struggled otherwise. Over the weekend, he didn’t see a single target in the first 15 minutes, but worked his way into the game after that and reminded us of the pedigree.

We got a 45-yard contested catch, and we also got a designed quick hitter, something that wasn’t in the playbook for WR1 a season ago. Development isn’t a linear process, and if Harrison’s savvy is catching up to his raw abilities, we could be looking at him cashing in on the 2024 hype in 2025.

There is, of course, the potential for his strong start to be matchup-driven. That’s a fair long-term concern, but it’s not slowing me down this week. The Panthers aren’t exactly the ’85 Bears and are coming off a week in which they posted the lowest pressure rate in the NFL (12.1%, less than half of their 25.1% mark in 2024, a rate that was also the worst in the league).

We can have intelligent conversations in this space next week when it comes to how to evaluate Harrison for the rest of the season, but in the scope of Week 2, he’s knocking on the door of WR1 status for me and sits as my WR13.

Marvin Mims Jr. (at Colts)

Marvin Mims Jr. was a popular breakout candidate this summer after he showed signs down the stretch of 2024 that indicated he could be a project for Sean Payton to work on.

Personally, I lost affection for him after Pat Bryant was drafted, but perhaps the answer is that neither will be consistent enough ever to be trusted.

Sutton was the only Bronco pass catcher on the field for over 62% of their offensive snaps in Week 1 (Mims: 50.7%, behind Troy Franklin for those keeping track at home), and if that is how this rotation is going to work, you’re grasping for straws in thinking that there is a WR2 worth your time.

In the win, Mims finished with three catches for 12 yards and a lost fumble. I’ll be a week late, maybe a month late, on the Mims breakout, should it happen. There’s simply too much variance in this offense for me to be interested, especially if you’re operating with optimism toward their WR-RB-TE trio that we all generally like.

The Broncos are a good real-life team, but their fantasy appeal is currently limited and is likely to remain that way for the next four months.

Matthew Golden (vs. Commanders)

This is going to be a pain for four months.

Matthew Golden is a talented kid, but the Packers are trying to win football games, not fantasy matchups. They’ve made it clear in the past that variety is the spice of life when it comes to their WR rotation, and that’s what we saw in Sunday’s blowout win over the Lions.

Packers pass-catcher snaps, Week 1:

• Tucker Kraft: 43/18
• Romeo Doubs: 33/17
• Golden: 22/13
• Dontayvion Wicks: 21/9
• Jayden Reed: 18/12

I think there’s a reasonable chance that Golden has three big weeks this season, but predicting them is going to take more crystal ball and less spreadsheet.

In theory, this is a good spot. He’s a big-play threat, and the Commanders allowed the sixth-highest passer rating on deep throws a season ago, but without any proof of concept, I can’t imagine plugging him in as a flex on Thursday night.

Run him out there as a DFS Showdown captain if you want exposure; that way, if he hits big, you cash. But outside of that, I’m going to need to see it before I invest, and that’s realistically true for any receiver on this Green Bay roster.

Michael Pittman Jr. (vs. Broncos)

What is this? A 75% catch rate from Michael Pittman in Week 1? A touchdown and some consistency on the quality of targets?

This is new. And I love it. He scored from 27 yards out on Sunday, the sixth-longest score of his career, and exposed a perfect matchup against a Dolphins team that is … in trouble.

Maybe we look back and see that everyone beat up on Miami, and that this was Pittman ultimately living up to expectations, not doing anything special. But for now, I’m choosing to be impressed by what I saw from him with Daniel Jones under center.

None of the Indy pass catchers were downfield threats on Sunday, but Pittman’s aDOT was a tick higher than both Josh Downs and Tyler Warren in Week 1. Normally, I’d like that, but if he draws Patrick Surtain on occasion this week, that spells trouble. It’s hard to get open against him as it is, and given that Denver, 2023’s runner-up in pressure rate, paced the NFL in that regard in Week 1, anything downfield figures to be difficult to come by on Sunday.

I’m in on the idea of Pittman being a flex you can rely on, but that optimism restarts in Week 3 in Tennessee.

Mike Evans (at Texans)

Mike Evans hauled in five balls on a team-high eight targets against the Falcons for 51 yards, but it’s hard not to follow your eyes on this one.

Didn’t Emeka Egbuka look like the harder player to guard?

It’s one game, I’m aware of that. But this is a 32-year-old who has an elite prospect coming in, reinforcements on the way eventually, a new offensive system, and a single data point (1.55 yards per route) that would be the worst of his career if extended for the entire season.

Relax, I’m not projecting that, but I am saying that if you feel less confident in your Evans stock today than you did a week ago, I don’t blame you. A.J. Terrell was matched up with him on Sunday, and maybe he has some tricks of the trade from experience that will be tough to repeat (even if Evans has largely done well in that matchup), but this is a WR1 committee to me now with Evans more likely to fade than Egbuka.

Evans remains a starter, though I don’t think you should be surprised if this is a topsy-turvy season for the future Hall of Famer. If that rollercoaster isn’t for you, hop off after the next big game. Evans is my WR19 this week, and Egbuka is my WR22.

Nico Collins (vs. Buccaneers)

Is it possible that I was out over my skis in labeling Nico Collins as fantasy’s top receiver in 2025?

It’s possible.

Am I backing off on it after a goofy Week 1 that saw 12 of 16 games go under the projected total, and points were hard to come by across the league?

Not yet.

The Texans allowed pressure at the seventh-highest rate in Week 1, and the offensive line is a serious issue that needs to be considered. That and the Christian Kirk injury loom large, as opponents have little to no reason not to shade everything they do towards Collins.

That said, the offensive line held up when not blitzed (16th in pressure rate). They were destroyed when the Rams brought the heat (Stroud was pressured on five of six blitzes), but that’s the sort of thing that can be improved with time and reps. As the communication within the group improves, I hope that they can do better and give this offense a chance.

The matchup sets up well for Collins and this offense as a whole to bounce back after one of the more disappointing showings in Week 1. Drake London earned a 35.7% target share last week against the Bucs, a continuation of them struggling to slow down big-play threats.

In 2024, London dropped 33.4 points on them in Week 5, but we also saw DeAndre Hopkins and Rashod Bateman clear 22 points. As did Adam Thielen with an offense built around him, even if the offense was of lesser quality.

I like Collins to bounce back this week and remind you why you spent a top-15 pick on him.

Pat Bryant (at Colts)

Pat Bryant impressed every college football fan in 2024 (54 catches for 984 yards and 10 scores), and the idea of Sean Payton adding a weapon like that was tempting as drafts concluded this summer.

The train of thought made sense, and maybe it will pay off in the long term. Short term? We have zero evidence that there are any plans to give the rookie much of a chance to show what he can do.

In Week 1, Bryant played four snaps, two of which were run plays. If your team was hit with injuries in Week 1, this is the type of player you can move on from. But most teams aren’t ravaged quite yet, and in those spots, this is an interesting enough profile for me to hold tight.

If you want to really overthink things, I’m here for you. Do you trust the Raiders or Jaguars’ defenses? I don’t. The Packers looked good in Week 1 and are likely a top-10 unit, but playing for a 10th consecutive week and at altitude?

• Week 14 at Raiders
• Week 15 vs. Packers (Green Bay has a Week 6 bye)
• Week 16 vs. Jaguars

If your Bryant optimism is going to pay off, there’s a chance it hits at the perfect time. I’m not saying it will, but I’ve been researching this game long enough to know that snap patterns in Week 1 aren’t always predictive of what we see in December.

Puka Nacua (at Titans)

Puka Nacua was bleeding all over the place against the Texans. He may have spent more minutes in the medical tent than there were points scored in the game, but that didn’t stop him from being targeted on every other route and further cementing his status as one of the more inevitable producers in the sport.

I love that the Rams are trending toward getting him a carry or two whenever they can on top of the 8+ targets he’s nearly a lock for (he’s done it in six of seven career games when Los Angeles is a road favorite). His weekly range of outcomes is on par with the best receivers in the NFL, though the process of watching him grind his way through a contest can test your mental fortitude.

Patrick Surtain could be on a Revis Island trajectory (Surtain’s Circle? I’m workshopping nicknames after another strong showing where he limited Calvin Ridley to 27 yards on eight targets) and that’s enough to scare me off of the premium price tag in DFS.

But in season-long, there’s nothing to do here. Nacua plays with one of the greatest WR elevators of this generation, and he will be carried out on his shield before letting your team down.

Draft Nacua. Play Nacua. Easy game.

Quentin Johnston (at Raiders)

Before we get into the wet blanket portion of the breakdown, let’s give Johnston credit for what he did on Friday night.

He turned seven targets into a 5-79-2 receiving line, totaling 24.9 PPR points in the process, the second-best showing of his career.

The best game of his career? In Vegas against these Raiders to wrap last season.

On the first drive, he caught a pair of passes on five routes for 38 yards and a score. That was great, but five targets on his following 31 routes weren’t ideal. In a game where he seemed to have a matchup advantage and the Chargers were willing to air the ball out, Johnston was still out-caught and out-targeted by both Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey.

If Los Angeles is truly going to let Justin Herbert cook this season, there are going to be games like this. Understood. But the Johnston coin will land on the other side, and history suggests that we are getting that result more often than not.

In the win over the Chiefs, nine different Chargers were targeted. Tre Harris is a player who figures to develop with time, Najee Harris is going to be more of a threat with time, and Omarion Hampton might be the next great running back who is capable of breaking the game in a variety of ways.

Johnston wasn’t drafted in 97.3% of leagues per the PFSN Mock Draft Simulator, and that obviously feels wrong as we sit here today.

Should he be on a roster?

Probably.

Could he clear 15 PPR points for the fifth time in his past seven games?

It’s possible.

Given the depth of the position league-wide and the number of options on an offense that still comes with plenty of ground-and-pound risk in spots like this where the game script projects to be in their favor, I’m not close to flexing him just yet.

Rashee Rice (vs. Eagles)

Rashee Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of this season for a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy, which you should be aware of.

Rice showed well physically in camp, and when he’s back on the active roster, there’s no conversation to be had. Over his past 13 healthy games, his 17-game pace was 110 catches and eight scores, a line that makes him an unquestioned asset in all formats.

READ MORE: Chiefs Predicted to Trade for 13-TD WR With Xavier Worthy Hurt, Rashee Rice Suspended

With Travis Kelce at the mercy of Father Time and Xavier Worthy’s role only set to regress, Rice is the pass catcher to trust in this offense when at full strength, and it’s not close in my opinion.

If you roster Rice, you have the opportunity to play him every week. Survive in the short term and thrive in the long term. I’m told this is what parenting is like, but I cannot confirm.

If you don’t, I’d suggest actively rooting against the team that does. Not that “rooting” does you any good, but you will want to keep tabs on that team: if that team stubs its toe out of the gates and doesn’t feel as if it can survive the entirety of this suspension, you might be able to buy low on a potential league winner:

Week 12 vs. Colts

Stat to track: Second-highest short pass passer rating allowed in 2024 (only the Patriots were worse).

Week 13 at Cowboys

Stat to track: Highest short completion percentage allowed last season (78.5%, league average: 73.5%).

Week 14 vs. Texans

Stat to track: Allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per catch after the reception last season (NFL average: 5.3)

Week 15 vs. Chargers

Stat to track: Last season, 50 of Mahomes’ 66 passes thrown against the Chargers traveled less than 10 yards downfield (75.8%, the highest mark of his career against the divisional opponent, career rate prior vs LAC: 65.4%)

Week 16 at Titans

Stat to track: Sixth-highest touchdown rate allowed on short passes

Week 17 vs. Broncos

Stat to track: Mahomes played against them once last season, and he threw 31 passes no more than five yards downfield, the third highest.

Rashid Shaheed (vs. 49ers)

The Saints are going to be forced into these “pass more than we want to and hope for the best” situations with regularity this season, and that puts Rashid Shaheed on the flex radar any time you need it.

That said, this quarterback situation is going to make you uncomfortable in doing so whenever you need it.

I remain sold on Shaheed as an above-average talent, but the fact that this player can have a nine-target, 33-yard game is reflective of the issues in The Big Easy these days.

Last season, the 49ers ranked as a top-5 defense against the deep pass, with the fewest attempts faced, the lowest completion percentage, the fewest yards per attempt, and the highest passer rating. I have Shaheed on more than a few benches, but I’ll admit it: I’m essentially hoping that he runs into the perfect situation the time or two I need him.

With the weather largely not an issue and all 32 teams in action, this isn’t one of those situations.

Rashod Bateman (vs. Browns)

Rashod Bateman’s 2024 profile screamed regression all summer long, and I’d say a 2-10-0 stat line in a game in which Baltimore scored 40 points qualifies as such.

The former first-round pick has never reached 50 receptions in a season, and last season was his first with more than two touchdowns. Bateman has scored under 8.5 PPR points in two-thirds of his career games against the division, a trend I believe continues against a Browns defense that showed well for itself against the Bengals in the opener.

Ricky Pearsall (at Saints)

Less than a year ago, Ricky Pearsall was dealing with a gunshot wound, and now, his teammates would love to know his health status.

He looked great in the season opener (108 yards), highlighted by a pump-and-go that helped set up the game-winning score. His first-round pedigree makes more and more sense every time we see him lace ’em up, but now he’s going to be asked to essentially carry this offense.

Purdy is hobbled while every other pass catcher (WR/TE) on our radar is slated to be in street clothes. I want to buy Pearsall, and this week, I am (WR25), but I do fear that we are heaping a lot in terms of responsibilities on his plate.

In Week 1, the majority of his targets came deep downfield (last season: 26.1%). I like how that skill set aligns with this roster at full strength, but we aren’t assured of seeing that any time soon, if at all.

I’d be more likely to move on from Pearsall than I would be to trade for him.

Rome Odunze (at Lions)

Ben Johnson left no doubt about the hierarchy of his receivers on Monday night: Rome Odunze and DJ Moore both cleared an 80% snap share while Luther Burden was present for just 27% of their offensive plays.

Breakout mode, activated.

Odunze finished as Chicago’s top player in targets and catches, but it’s more than that. Johnson schemed up a play with plenty of misdirection and ball handling from Williams to get him a touchdown in close.

“In close.”

In 2024, as a rookie, he was used as a vertical threat. That was his role, and while there were flashes of production, it’s hard for anyone to sustain value in that spot.

2024 splits:

• Odunze: 39.6% of targets came 15+ yards down the field
• Keenan Allen: 23.1% of targets came 15+ yards down the field
• Moore: 18.6% of targets came 15+ yards down the field

But on Monday, Odunze saw 22.2% of his targets come downfield while Moore saw 60%. That’s a tiny sample, and I doubt it sticks, but it was the type of proof I needed to see to verify that Johnson is willing to explore the skills of this budding star.

With that said, can we please get him running down the field this week?

Last season, albeit in two matchups sans Aidan Hutchinson, Williams posted an 11.3 aDOT against the Lions (7.4 against the rest of the NFL). This is a new offense, but I think a similar attack makes sense, and that puts Odunze in a position to again return viable flex numbers.

My order for these receivers remains unchanged. I still prefer the stability of Moore, but Odunze is trending in a positive direction, and I don’t mind buying early in the trade market if he’s still available for something close to his draft-day cost.

Romeo Doubs (vs. Commanders)

The Packers dominated the Lions from start to finish. They averaged 8.5 yards per pass and scored on the majority of their drives. Everything any Cheesehead hoped this season essentially came true by knocking off the reigning NFC North champions without much of a sweat.

All of that happened, and we didn’t learn a damn thing about their target distribution.

Romeo Doubs led the Green and Gold with 68 receiving yards, while Jayden Reed paced them in receptions and fantasy points. Dontayvion Wicks had a pair of catches, gaining 14+ yards, and Matthew Golladay caught the passes thrown his way.

In Week 1, Jordan Love showed complete control of the offense and spread his 16 completions across 10 different players. It was a democratic distribution, and while that might work for Green Bay as a team, it makes them essentially a no-fly zone for fantasy managers.

Tucker Kroft led the Pack in routes run, with Doubs topping that list for the receivers, but I have zero confidence in any of that sticking. Some teams are threats to make deep playoff runs because they have a sledgehammer they can use to beat you into submission.

Like the Ravens. We generally know where their production is coming from, and we love that.

The Packers aren’t that, and they are never going to be. All of the receivers on this team need to be rostered based on our faith in this offense as a whole, but you can’t justify ranking any of them as top-30 WRs right now.

This is a headache, and I’m not sure it gets better with time. Look for the hot Packer receiver of the week (there isn’t one right now) to top the sell-high trade lists. This is the rare explosive offense that you don’t want to overextend to get exposure to.

Stefon Diggs (at Dolphins)

Stefon Diggs’ aDOT in 2022 was 11.9 yards, and that was suitable. He was able to run a wide range of routes and display a versatile skill set. It fell to 10.8 the following season, tanked to 8.3 with the Texans last season, and with an 8.1 mark on Sunday, it’s clear that his current employer is seeing what others have recently.

Father Time looms.

New England is a pass game that is a work in progress and operates largely out of three-receiver sets. This team is a team on the rise, while Diggs’ career has pretty clearly reached the back-9.

He’s not a receiver that I’m excited about rostering and checks in outside of my top-40 at the position this week.

Tee Higgins (vs. Jaguars)

Rub some dirt on it and move on.

I play around with the data all day, and I can’t do any better than that when breaking down the Bengals’ Week 1 performance. The Browns have the right talent mix to give this offense fits (45 points scored across their two games last season), and they did it again in Week 1.

Everyone attached to the Cincinnati offense struggled in Week 1, and my opinion of all of them remains unchanged from the preseason.

Higgins saw his streak of fantasy games with an end zone target end at six straight, and his 49 air yards were less than half of what he averaged per game a season ago (101.8). It was ugly across the board, but it’s not as if Joe Burrow was dealing elsewhere, thus making this a Higgins problem.

It was simply a dud to open the season.

There were five Bengals with multiple first-half targets against Cleveland, and Higgins wasn’t one of them. Don’t care. He opened last season with a near-identical dud before ripping off six straight games with at least six receptions or a touchdown.

Better times are ahead and it should start this week. Higgins averaged 22.8 PPR points per game at home last season (15.4 on the road) and if you’re buying the 26.5-implied point total for Cincy in this spot, you can, and should, expect their WR2 to trend toward his high-end WR2 status in our game.

Terry McLaurin (at Packers)

Let me start by saying that I understand the narrative. Across the industry this week, I’ve seen analysts wondering aloud about whether this is now a WR1a/WR1b situation in Washington, and if you base it solely on Week 1 production, that seems like a best-case scenario for Terry McLaurin managers.

Commanders WRs vs NYG, Week 1:

• Deebo Samuel: 7 catches, 10 targets, 77 yards, 19-yard rush TD
• McLaurin: 2 catches, 4 targets, 27 yards

There is a point of concern for me regarding McLaurin, and I think it highlights his profile as more sporadic than anything else.

I don’t doubt that the year-end numbers will still be there, but the fact that he didn’t see a target thrown less than nine yards downfield on Sunday is a red flag (2024: 47.9% of his targets came on such passes, and his catch rate on those looks was 87.5%). The layup targets might be a thing of the past, and that’s impactful.

But do I think his spot at the top of this depth chart is in question? I don’t. Jayden Daniels missed him on a double move in the second quarter, a beautiful design that very well could have been a 69-yard touchdown (a 13.9-point play).

Land that punch, and the storylines shift today. That’s the nature of the business. More often than not, Daniels puts more air under that pass, McLaurin finds his way to paydirt, and we all live happily ever after with Week 1 victories.

In 2024, McLaurin averaged 12.5 PPR PPG when facing teams that would go on to make the playoffs (two of the three road games were flat-out duds with under four PPR points) and 17.1 against non-playoff teams.

He’s my highest-ranked Commander WR this weekend (WR25), and while the gap has narrowed, I still feel good about the hierarchy in Washington.

Tetairoa McMillan (at Cardinals)

Not a ton of priors were confirmed on a sluggish Week 1 across the NFL, but Tetairoa McMillan being “the guy” in Carolina from the jump certainly was.

Playing mainly on the boundary, he commanded a 25.7% target share, caught five balls, and more than doubled the receiving yardage of any of his teammates. The rate numbers look impressive, and they are expected to remain consistent throughout the season, but you can only do so much if the environment is suboptimal.

Bryce Young is still a work in progress. We can cite all the final month of 2022 stats that we want, but until he’s pumping out quality starts consistently, the production of the pieces around him is going to be spotty, even for a player commanding an impressive target share.

You drafted McMillan with the hope that you’d be able to feel good about playing him weekly, and, in a flex sort of way, I think we are there. That’s not to say his profile is bulletproof, and he’s my WR3 among rookies, but the usage/talent combination is enough for me to rank him above high-floor types like Jakobi Meyers.

Travis Hunter (at Bengals)

Liam Coen tried to tell us in August, using his listed depth chart, that Travis Hunter was a wide receiver who could play cornerback, not the other way around.

He wasn’t lying.

Not only did 86.7% of his snaps come on the offensive side of the ball, but they also showed no hesitation in going his direction (targeted on two of Trevor Lawrence’s first seven passes of the season).

If we are nitpicking his debut, I’d love to see more exploring of his unique athleticism. All six of his receptions came on passes thrown less than eight yards downfield, and while that helped with his efficiency, it capped his upside.

That should come with time. Even without it, he’s comfortably at the top of my flex ranks for Week 2, and I only see him gaining value as he gains comfort with the speed of the professional game.

Tyquan Thornton (vs. Eagles)

Well, well, well, what do we have here?

The 2022 second-round pick (15.7 yards per catch in college at Baylor) was viewed as a toolsy player with contingent value for the Chiefs a month ago.

And now? Could you argue that he is their most irreplaceable WR?

That might be a bit of a stretch, but he’s a vertical threat in an Andy Reid offense that promised us more deep shots and is now without the fastest man in NFL Combine history?

Thornton’s four targets against Los Angeles totaled 109 air yards (more than Hollywood Brown finished with despite seeing 16 targets), and that’s what we have here. He’s never going to rank as a top-35 player at the position, but the Chiefs have a need, and for right now, he’s the man for the job.

You can’t tell me that the last person on your bench currently has an outlook that is that optimistic.

Tyreek Hill (vs. Patriots)

What in the world are we supposed to do here?

The scary part is that I’m not sure Tyreek Hill would feel confident in starting Tyreek Hill these days, and that’s a position that almost requires blind confidence.

In addition to just the vibes being sideways in South Beach, Hill wasn’t really put in a position to succeed last week, and that was against an occasionally vulnerable Colts defense. He averaged a near unfathomable 1.3 yards after the catch per reception in Week 1 (career rate: 4.8), something that calls into question a ton of things.

1) Is he washed?

2) Is this offense using him properly?

3) Has the shine of this system completely worn off?

I wish I had an answer for you.

I have him hovering around WR30 for the week, and I’m not inclined to move off of that. Jakobi Meyers has averaged 9.4 targets and 15.9 PPR points per game since Davante Adams was traded and offers an elevated floor: how can I reasonably rank Hill ahead of a profile like that?

If you paid up for him and feel obligated to start him, I get it. I’m a man of the people and can share with you that he’s played four games against the Patriots where Tagovailoa was under center:

• 16.9 PPR PPG
• 6 end zone targets
• 29% target rate

Repeat those rates, and we are looking at a WR2 with ease. But are those past numbers viable anymore? I need a few more data points to dismiss all previous production completely, but my patience is wearing thin, and I imagine you’re in the same boat.

Wan’Dale Robinson (at Cowboys)

If you locked me in a dark room and asked me to project Wan’Dale Robinson without any information (no mention of the quarterback he’s playing with, the opponent, the weather, no nothing), I think I land somewhere in the range of 5-7 catches for 60-ish yards.

Week 1 at Washington: 6 catches for 55 yards.

You know what you’re getting, and that can be useful. Broccoli is a nice complement to my chicken parm. But if you have too much broccoli and not enough chicken parm, what are you doing?

That’s to say that every team should have a floor riser like Robinson, but let’s not overdo it. Situationally, he’s viable, but his role is far from pliable.

I believe that Robinson is largely matchup-proof. Good or bad, he’s looking at 9-12 PPR points. That train of thought has held up for much of his career, but the Cowboys have been the exception.

Worrisome is the fact that his 15 career catches against Dallas have totaled just 93 yards. Even more worrisome is that 11 of those catches and 71 of those yards came in one of those three games.

In his two trips to Jerry’s World, Robinson has turned 59 routes into… wait for it… 12 yards on five targets. Week 2 isn’t the spot to deploy Robinson: wait until you have injuries to navigate, and his floor becomes more appealing. For this week, I’d be more likely to take my chances on a Rashid Shaeed or Tillman-type receiver, one that can reach Robinson’s projection on a single target.

Xavier Worthy (vs. Eagles)

Xavier Worthy was handed the ball on Kansas City’s second play from scrimmage, and I allowed my mind to wander.

Are we looking at a skinny version of prime Deebo Samuel? Could Worthy’s generational speed be weaponized in a crazy way by the mad scientist that is Andy Reid?

As it turns out, I may have gotten sucked in a touch quickly. On the next play, he landed hard on his shoulder and was visibly frustrated as he was helped to the locker room.

READ MORE: Xavier Worthy Injury Update: How Long Will the Chiefs WR Be Out?

Worthy was ruled out for the rest of the opener shortly thereafter and seems poised to miss the rest of the month at the very least.

If he were set to be a full go for this contest, it would have been easy to feel good about playing him. In his brief Week 1 appearance, he was as featured as we could have hoped, and while much of his production came in garbage time, he did turn eight Super Bowl targets into eight catches, 157 yards, and two long touchdowns (24 and 50 yards).

The million-dollar question: who, if anyone, picks up the Worthy role now that Andy Reid has had a week to sit on things?

Zay Flowers (vs. Browns)

Week 1 comes with overreactions. It’s what we do. I can say that Juwan Johnson is pacing to break the single-season record for TE receptions, or that Keon Coleman is poised to be vintage DeAndre Hopkins and get away with it, because the only data point we have this season supports where those insane takes are pointing.

I stay away from that stuff.

Usually.

I think Zay Flowers played the best game of his career on Sunday night, and I fear that everyone is going to forget it. It’ll be pushed aside because Derrick Henry was treating professional athletes like they were mosquitoes or because Josh Allen put on the cape for the final five minutes.

Those are completely viable storylines, but we know both of those guys are monsters. We know they are capable of elite seasons, never mind isolated snapshots. In the case of Flowers, I don’t remember an instance where I thought he gave the Ravens the star receiver they’ve needed during the Lamar Jackson era.

Until Sunday night.

The final stat line is great (seven catches for 143 yards and a touchdown in addition to two carries for eight yards), but I walked away more impressed with the “how.”

• Deep targets: 5 (tied for the third most in a game for his career)
• Targets thrown no more than three yards downfield: 4
• Third down targets: 3
• Targets following play-action: 3
• Targets when Jackson was pressured: 3

In essence, every situation in that heartbreaking loss was a Flowers situation. It’s easy to forget that Flowers was a 16.4 yards per catch guy at Boston College from 2020-21 before he traded in some playmaking for volume as a senior. There is a well-rounded skill set there and, in Week 1 at least, Todd Monken seemed to unlock it.

Flowers has been held out of the end zone in all four of his career games against the Browns (99 routes run), but that shouldn’t worry you in the least if you believe we have a new receiver on our hands.

The gravity that the Jackson/Henry tandem creates is unlike any other situation in the NFL. I’m not trying to sell you on Flowers being a better player than Ladd McConkey, but you can’t tell me that there’s not at least a chance that the talent difference is offset by how defenses line up against them.

This week will be a good litmus test. If I’m right and Flowers explodes again, you’re going to want to come back to here next week for what will be a dissertation on his path to winning your league.

The Browns are a high-pressure defense, and that opened them up to the highest opponent average depth of target and the third most YAC allowed per reception a season ago. If Flowers can adjust to what is required of him for this specific matchup, there won’t be a price I’m not willing to pay to acquire him.

Flowers was drafted as a flex this summer. My base rank for this week was WR16, and he may have inched up a few spots depending on when you are reading this.

Tight Ends

Brenton Strange (at Bengals)

Brenton Strange has enticing athletic tools that we saw glimpses of last season (five games with a 20+ yard catch despite muted usage), and he was on the field for 82.5% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps in the season opener.

Against the Panthers, his 23 routes yielded four catches and 59 yards, landing him right around double-digit PPR points, a standard I’m comfortable in assuming weekly with him. Coen always had Cade Otton running around for the Bucs last season, and with Strange being a more gifted target earner, we are looking at the top add at the position this week should you be looking for help at the position.

Strange is currently my TE13 for Week 2, ranked ahead of bigger names who scored touchdowns over the weekend in Zach Ertz and Dalton Kincaid.

Brock Bowers (vs. Chargers)

If you’re reading this, you’re aware of what Brock Bowers is, and that’s a machine. We’ve seen him on the professional stage 18 times, and he’s already hit 90 receiving yards seven times.

For context, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and Ja’Marr Chase all had seven such stat lines through their first 18 career games. In fact, since 2000, Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz are the only players to top seven in that very niche stat that you can now flaunt at your Week 2 watch party.

I’m not worried about the knee injury that he seemed to pick up late last week, and I’m not concerned about Michael Mayer earning a red zone target. For me, Mayer is Tyler Allgeier to Bowers’ Bijan Robinson, case closed.

You spent up at the position this summer to have a built-in edge every week over your league. While Geno Smith may not be a perfect QB, he certainly looked comfortable in funneling the targets where they needed to go in this offense, and that’s all you care about.

Bowers had 8+ targets in both Charger games last season, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make it three-for-three in that regard this week.

Cade Otton (at Texans)

It was my belief this preseason, and it remains so: the Liam Coen departure will mean more to the fringe talents than to the strong talents. Mike Evans is still going to earn his looks, Bucky Irving can carve up defenses in any scheme, and Emeka Egbuka’s profile fits anywhere.

Cade Otton is the type of player I was talking about.

Even in the Coen system, Otton was more of a wind sprinter than a target earner. I’m aware that he battled a groin injury late in the preseason and that he may have been moderately limited last week. Still, three targets and zero catches is disappointing regardless.

The Bucs offense is going to be good. Really good.

Not all pieces from strong offenses need to be rostered.

Both things can be true, and in this case, I believe them to be.

Chig Okonkwo (vs. Rams)

This is about where I draw the line. Anyone I rank below Chig Okonkwo isn’t on my streaming radar, and anyone in his tier (or higher) has my attention should I need help at the position.

The cliff notes of the argument are that you have a TE locked into playing time (87.3% of the snaps on Sunday) in an offense with uncertain target distribution led by the top overall pick, who is being given a long leash this year.

After Calvin Ridley, no Titan ran more routes in the season opener than Okonkwo, and that’s going to put him in position to score 8-10 PPR points most weeks. Personally, I don’t see this offense scoring more than the mid-20s in points very often, which means the ceiling is limited. But if you’re looking in this direction, you can’t have it all.

The Rams can create havoc, and that was an issue for C.J. Stroud last week. The cure to that is the passing equivalent of fullback dives: quick routes to your big tight end.

I’ll say we get more than three catches for 19 yards this weekend, making him a viable replacement if you’re dealing with injuries at the position.

Cole Kmet (at Lions)

Cole Kmet caught only one pass on Monday night, but the full extension, one-handed snag down the seam was a reminder of why he is on this team despite the drafting of Colston Loveland.

He finished the game with 22 more snaps than the rookie, but the Bears struggled to move the ball after the first eight minutes, and that was reflected in their cumulative stat line (the tandem combined for three catches and 43 yards).

I’m not pivoting off my preseason evaluation of this situation: Kmet is going to be a significant factor, but not nearly valuable enough to warrant rostering.

Colston Loveland (at Lions)

He spent the entire offseason wondering what Ben Johnson would do with Colston Loveland. Yes, he’s a high-pedigree player with a promising future, but this is also an offense with a stable TE (Kmet) and three receivers that they hope to be dynamic.

Week 1 participation report:

• Kmet: 57 snaps, 30 routes, 4 targets
• Loveland: 35 snaps, 21 routes, 2 targets

Game script certainly played into the usage of these tight ends, so I caution against reading too much into it. Chicago led for much of the evening, and Kmet (asked to block on 47.4% of his snaps) was trusted in the run game more than Loveland (40%), as is to be expected.

I still very much favor Loveland to Kmet this season, but neither is a viable option this week and may not be this month. Last season, Kmet ran 76 routes against the Lions as Chicago’s primary tight end and had just 35 yards to show for it.

I trust this offensive structure under Johnson, but I’ll need to see it before I consider it for my starting lineup.

Dallas Goedert (at Chiefs)

Dallas Goedert posting a 35% target share (including the first target of the season) for the defending champs certainly wasn’t on my Week 1 bingo card, but here we are.

I think it’s a nothing burger.

The Birds went with an ultra-conservative game plan, a weird trend that has developed during the Jalen Hurts era.

Hurts’ lowest career aDOT games:

• Week 1, 2025: 4.9 yards
• Week 1, 2022: 4.1 yards
• Week 5, 2022: 3.8 yards
• Week 1, 2021: 3.7 yards

Goedert is a good player, but he’s not special. The two receivers in this run-oriented offense are special, and assuming that Hurts’ throw depth moves in the direction it has in years past, the tight end’s stock is set to fall sooner than later (there’s a reason he’s never cleared five touchdown receptions in a season or reached 60 catches).

I’d be shocked if there is a sell-high thread to chase here, but it’s all contextual. I had Goedert ranked alongside half a dozen other tight ends as coin-flip streaming options this summer, and that remains my stance: I believe he is essentially the definition of replacement level at the position.

If you can package him with the last player on your roster for a handcuff running back with substantial contingent value, I think you pull the trigger and figure out the tight end position weekly.

Dalton Schultz (vs. Buccaneers)

There will eventually be an answer to the “who besides Nico Collins” question in the Houston passing game. But until we get some breadcrumbs leading toward an answer, I’m not going to waste my time guessing.

Sure, Dalton Schultz tied Collins for the team lead in targets in Los Angeles last week with five, but this offense offered no upside (zero 25-yard plays), and the offensive line struggles to such a degree that a blocking tight end is a real threat.

Schultz should be on waiver wires until he proves that’s a mistake, and even then, I think I’d need him to do it twice.

Dalton Kincaid (at Jets)

Dalton Kincaid scored the first touchdown in Sunday Night’s instant classic, but then he pretty much disappeared (three catches for 33 yards isn’t much in a game that saw 81 points put on the board).

Buffalo spent all summer convincing themselves to make Josh Palmer a thing, and we know that Khalil Shakir is a target earner. It’s the smallest of samples, but Keon Coleman impressed in the fourth quarter (22.5 PPR points in the final 15 minutes!), and if that sort of growth is sticky, you start running out of targets to send Kincaid’s way.

Sadly, I think what we got on Sunday is about what you can expect. A role that comes with a ceiling of maybe six targets and limited scoring equity due to how this offense functions when they get in close.

Kincaid did haul in eight of nine targets a season ago against the Jets, but those looks carried a 3.4-yard aDOT, not the type of role I want access to if the volume projection is going to settle in under five targets.

The Bills are fun, but Kincaid is not. He’s my TE18 for the upcoming week.

David Njoku (at Ravens)

David Njoku has a run of five straight games with 6+ targets earned against the Ravens, averaging 5.4 catches per game during that run. Do I think each catch/target by itself will carry top-10 value this week? Probably not, but given the projected game script and the projectable volume, he’s a worthwhile starter, even if the highlight count will be low to non-existent.

He was one of two tight ends to run 40 routes on Sunday, and Harold Phanouvong Jr. pitched in 31 as well. This team is searching for answers in the passing game, and while I don’t think there necessarily is one, Njoku’s role in an offense that can’t run the ball is safe.

Cleveland figures to be behind from the jump in this road game, and that has me projecting Njoku to double his production from the season opener against the Bengals (three catches for 37 yards).

Evan Engram (at Colts)

On the surface, Evan Engram recording one catch for every six routes run in his Denver debut looks good. He wasn’t exactly used like the versatile weapon I was hoping for, but if that rate came on a full complement of snaps, I’d be holding steady with my Engram stocks.

But it didn’t.

A calf injury resulted in Engram playing just 29.6% of the offensive snaps, and now we have a real issue for a 31-year-old tight end on a team that doesn’t go on bye until Week 12.

The Broncos have real aspirations this season, and that leads me to believe they play it close to the vest, but that’s the last thing fantasy managers want to hear. I still think there is a valuable role for Engram to fill in Sean Payton’s offense, and maybe it takes form at the perfect time, but you’re going to have to roster a second tight end.

Brenton Strange and Chig Okonkwo are the two streaming options that I very much would slot in front of whoever the Broncos elect to add routes to, be it Adam Trautman or Lucas Krull, both of whom ran north of 10 routes last week.

George Kittle (at Saints)

George Kittle was doing George Kittle things until he decided to do less fun George Kittle things in the Week 1 win over the Seahawks.

Early on, he caught all four of his targets and scored on an extension play to the pylon where he flexed his athleticism and awareness. When he’s right, he’s as good as it gets at the position.

The problem is that we almost always have to navigate injuries, and that is already the case in 2025.

Kittle has played the full slate of games just once in his eight-year career and is now nursing a hamstring injury. I’m making other plans for Week 2 at the very least, not on waivers, but from what’s left on the wire after that.

If Kittle grinds this out and is active, I think you have to play him. His four-game scoring run early last season started in Week 2, and with Jauan Jennings also injured, the target distribution is predictable in San Francisco.

What causes Kittle to miss time is the same mindset that makes him an elite option when active.

Hunter Henry (at Dolphins)

Hunter Henry caught four of eight targets for 66 yards in the season opener, and the fact that he ran 39 routes was encouraging for a team that is lacking receiver depth.

I still need to see more.

Drake Maye didn’t show me much in the way of growth, and until that happens, counting on any pass catcher in this offense is taking on more risk than I’m willing to do. Henry reached triple figures in air yards over the weekend, the fourth such game of his career, and the further he gets from the line of scrimmage, the more variance is introduced into his scoring projection.

Long term, I’m out. But there were a bunch of tight end injuries in Week 1, and with the Dolphins on the schedule (7-76-0 line surrendered to Tyler Warren in his NFL debut over the weekend), Henry checks in as my TE15 and can be streamed in emergency situations.

Isaiah Likely (vs. Browns)

Isaiah Likely underwent surgery in July on a broken foot bone, resulting in no real ramping-up period for the season. At this moment, his status for Week 2 is unclear after missing the season opener, but with all 32 teams in action this week, why would you roll the dice on a player whose role isn’t 100% clear even when 100% healthy?

A player like Likely is the difference between shallow and deep leagues. I have no patience for an injured asset entering the season unless you have access to an IR slot for him. If that’s the case, you have nothing to lose. If not, what do you have to gain?

In deep leagues, however, Likely is close to a must-stash. He posted a 39.5% snap share in 2022, earned a promotion to 43.9% in 2023, and saw it spike to 60.3% in Year 3. He’s an impactful talent in an explosive offense, and that’s a profile that I don’t mind stashing over a WR7 type that I see so many deeper league rosters sit on.

If your WR7 is hitting your lineup, your ship has already sunk. At the tight end position, a player like Likely can bust into the TE1 conversation without outlier production, and that is why I want exposure to him.

That said, he’s reached double-digit PPR points just twice in his career when not playing at least half of the offensive snaps. There’s more risk than reward for a profile like that on a team that has an eye on the big picture at all times (68 wins since the beginning of 2019, the third most in the league), but there is also long-term appeal to a young player whose talent is obvious.

Stash if you have the room, and if you don’t have the space right now, don’t be shy about pouncing when we see signs of full health.

Ja’Tavion Sanders (at Cardinals)

There’s an athletic profile in Ja’Tavion Sanders that is going to result in some highlights, but I don’t play in any point-per-highlight leagues. Therefore, I’m not interested in any format.

In a game where he doubled up Tommy Tremble in routes run, Jalen Coker (quad – IR) was out, and the Panthers lost by 16, Sanders posted 18 yards on an 8.8% target share.

There’s a world in which you’re looking this direction in the middle of the season (Weeks 10-11: vs. New Orleans and at Atlanta) as you piece together your starting lineup, but we can save that conversation for another day.

Jake Ferguson (vs. Giants)

There were a few dangerous targets lofted in the way of Jake Ferguson, and while none of them were completed (one drew a penalty), the idea that Dak Prescott views his starting tight end as the type of guy that can make those plays in traffic is a good thing.

Double move in the red zone, a good thing.

I’m not here to sell you on the idea that his 23-yard performance against the Eagles on Thursday night was some rankings shifter, but I had Ferguson ranked above the streaming tier at the position this summer and feel better about that today than I did a week ago.

This George Pickens situation is going to have ups and downs. We aren’t sure what the running back position will be in Dallas. We know that CeeDee Lamb is an alpha receiver, and we know that Prescott trusts Ferguson. For me, that’s enough to put him on the low-end TE1 radar, even without a sparkling season debut.

For what it’s worth, he has earned exactly seven targets and cleared 11.5 PPR points in consecutive games against New York. If he can post numbers in that vicinity this weekend, you’ll gain ground on the field at the tight end position, and no one goes broke making a profit.

Jonnu Smith (vs. Seahawks)

If Jonnu Smith wasn’t a league winner last season, I’m not sure you’d care at all about him (2021-23: four touchdowns in 47 games), but he was, so you do.

It was Pat Freiermuth with the first TE target for the Steelers last weekend, and while I prefer Smith, there’s no denying that this slow offense is going to use both (18 routes apiece) of them, and that’s not a formula for sustained success.

The touchdown came on one of those cute forward pitch designs, and I like that Aaron Rodgers is comfortable with an athlete like Smith in such a spot, but you’re essentially banking on cheap stuff like that to get home.

Five catches is good, 16 yards is bad. There won’t be many Pittsburgh games that nearly double the pregame over/under in terms of total points, and that means the game environment won’t be nearly as friendly as it was on Sunday.

Juwan Johnson (vs. 49ers)

You mean to tell me that a Saints player overachieved early in the season? If only we had context for something like that.

Exactly 12 months ago, we were wondering if the Saints were the next Greatest Show on Turf. Life can come at you fast.

This isn’t that, obviously. New Orleans managed to score just 13 points against the Cardinals. But Spencer Rattler had 50 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts) in a game where they racked up 69 offensive plays, opening the door for Juwan Johnson to lead the position in routes run (47).

Good on him for posting the fifth-best game of his career (it could have been even better if he had held onto a potential game-tying end zone target late), but you don’t have to act on this. Johnson, in versions of this offense that had much higher projected upside, has never earned 70 targets in a season and has cleared four scores just once.

There were injuries at the TE position, and you might be looking to the waiver wire: I’d look elsewhere.

Kyle Pitts Sr. (at Vikings)

Just when you thought we had covered every possible inch of the “what is Kyle Pitts in the NFL” conversation, Week 1 happens.

Average depth of target by season

• 2022: 13.7 yards
• 2023: 12.0 yards
• 2024: 8.7 yards
• Week 1: 4.9 yards

It used to be our dream that he would be used like a receiver, and we got some of that on Sunday with seven catches, but I had more Drake London-patterned usage in mind, not Ray-Ray McCloud.

But maybe what we want isn’t what we need. We’d love to see the athletic profile of Pitts shine at elite levels, but maybe that’s not his destiny. Maybe this is what he is: a chain-moving option that can provide a high floor in a developing offense?

I’m not there yet, but it was good to see this. The Falcons had a very concentrated offense with Darnell Mooney (shoulder) out of action, funneling 71.4% of their targets to Pitts, London, or Bijan Robinson. The fact that they used their TE as part of their Big Three is encouraging.

We will see if the looks continue once Mooney is back and/or when Atlanta can establish a ground game. But Week 1 was a step in the right direction. It was a step away from Anthony Richardson-itis, a point where the team is so enamored with athletic tools that they operate without reason, trying to reach his 95th percentile outcome, blind to the fact that a 75th percentile outcome is still more than sufficient.

Mark Andrews (vs. Browns)

It was a weird game script-wise for the Ravens on Sunday night, but the fact that Mark Andrews ran 15 routes and other tight ends managed 10 is a little concerning to me with Isaiah Likely sidelined.

Will they manage his reps in the passing game?

I’m not suggesting that to be 100% accurate, but DeAndre Hopkins reeled in that one-handed touchdown as a part of his 12 routes while Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers were running routes on most Lamar Jackson dropbacks.

Charlie Kolar ran nine routes, and nothing against my guy Chucky K, but Likely is a far superior pass-catching option and will demand even more usage.

On the bright side, we saw Andrews run in terms of touchdown rate last season, showing us that it’s possible in this potent offense. On the downside, any regression on that front, and we aren’t looking at a top-15 player at the position, not to mention the top-5 upside that you hoped for when drafting him.

I’m not punting on him as a starter just yet, mainly because I’d never roster two tight ends, and that means I’d be recommending cutting him outright. But if we get another data point that looks like the one we got on Sunday night (5.3% target share) on top of positive news around the health of Likely, the waiver wire isn’t out of the question.

Mike Gesicki (vs. Jaguars)

Entering this season, Mike Gesicki signed a new deal. It didn’t really move the needle much in the fantasy space because he is what he is in Cincinnati: a wind sprint artist.

His route numbers have been off the charts in recent seasons, and that always tempts me into ranking him three spots higher than he should be or taking a DFS flier on him.

No more!

Drew Sample ran one more route than him on Sunday, and he more than doubled his raw snap count. If the Bengals are going to have some balance this season (whether that’s a Chase Brown thing or simply the best way for them to keep their defense off the field), those blocking snaps are going to be valuable – there is no such thing as “faking the run” when Gesicki is on the field.

I’ve always left the light on for Big Mike when it comes to the streaming conversation, but I’m as close as I’ve been to turning off that switch. If this weekend looks like last, he’ll officially fall out of my “I can pick up this guy and hope” tier at the position.

I respect your thoughts and prayers at this difficult time.

Pat Freiermuth (vs. Seahawks)

Pat Freiermuth, at the peak of his powers, was touchdown reliant. He had two seasons with seven touchdown receptions, and he was a streamer in those years. But from 2022-23, he turned 145 targets into just four scores and wasn’t on our radar.

Jonnu Smith played nine more snaps than Freiermuth in New York over the weekend, but they split 36 routes down the middle, and that means I’m not interested in either.

If forced to choose, it would be Smith (six targets to Freiermuth’s three). Freiermuth is a name you are familiar with, and there will be a few weeks where Aaron Rodgers gets him involved in scoring situations. But to my eye, those opportunities will come at random, and that means there’s no point in chasing them.

Sam LaPorta (vs. Bears)

The Ben Johnson absence was felt by just about everyone in Detroit outside of Sam LaPorta (nine targets, six catches, 79 yards). Jared Goff was efficient in a low-octane game plan, and if that style of game plan sticks, LaPorta is a threat to catch 100 balls in 2025.

More likely, however, is that this offense will adapt over time. Goff had no more completions than the Lions had rush attempts due to the script in Lambeau, and I can’t imagine we’ll see that consistently.

I expect a game against a less talented Bears team, operating on a short work week, to resemble the 2024 Lions more closely. That means more success on the ground and less volume through the air.

Banking on nine targets weekly is optimistic, but I do think 5-7 is reasonable, and given the efficiency of Goff, that’s going to land his tight end in the top-12 at the position more often than not. LaPorta, in my opinion, doesn’t carry the break-the-slate upside that the top-5 at the position do, but after that, he’s as good as it gets.

T.J. Hockenson (vs. Falcons)

I was expecting more from T.J. Hockenson on Monday night, but I’m willing to forgive and forget.

He was on the field for 77.6% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps and caught 75% of his targets, both of which project well moving forward. In J.J. McCarthy’s debut, the big tight end was used more as a chain mover (three catches for 15 yards) than anything, and this offense sputtered for much of the night.

I expect more volume to go his way with time, especially in the short term with Jordan Addison serving the final two games of his suspension. Hockenson doesn’t have Tier 1 potential, but given the carnage at the position over the weekend, he’s firmly a starter in all formats and a part of the tier where I’m not holding a second TE on my roster.

Travis Kelce (vs. Eagles)

The 37-yard touchdown was well schemed, and Travis Kelce gets credit for executing. Still, the man had one catch for 10 yards on his other 37 routes in a game that was played without Rashee Rice, without, for the most part, Xavier Worthy, and in a pass-friendly game script (Patrick Mahomes had 29 more pass attempts than Kansas City RBs had carries).

Not ideal.

Being tethered to Mahomes is a fantasy steroid, and with the Chiefs, at least early in the season, it looks as if Kelce is physically aging well for a soon-to-be 36-year-old. But, I didn’t walk away from Friday night with a warm and fuzzy feeling in my stomach about him being a TE1 every week.

There was a red-zone opportunity missed where Kelce slowed down on a route just enough for Mahomes to misfire, and things like that have a way of getting ironed out with time. We will see what the future holds for Worthy’s health, and maybe that buys you more time for Kelce to build up his trade value, but I’m OK with cashing this chip in.

We know that, for one reason or another, Kelce’s fantasy stock hibernates in December (2022-24: one touchdown on 460 December routes), and I’m concerned that Rice takes food off his plate the second he is activated in Week 7.

Start taking the calls. You have a little runway now to get out of the Kelce business at a profit, and I don’t think that will come back to haunt you. Don’t settle, but have honest negotiations and try to make a deal happen while he is still viewed as a locked-in fantasy asset.

Trey McBride (vs. Panthers)

Another week, another nine looks for Trey McBride. He was featured from the jump (43.8% first-half target share), and with Marvin Harrison Jr. looking good, I’m as confident as ever in McBride’s potential to lead the position in scoring for the season.

In Week 1, seven of McBride’s targets (77.8%) came within five yards of the line of scrimmage, up from his 56.5% rate a season ago. The casual fantasy manager scoffs at a note like that, instead favoring some high-upside opportunities, but at the tight end position, give me a locked-in floor every time.

The Cardinals have made it clear that they view Harrison as a field stretcher, which leaves this role to McBride and McBride alone. Arizona was terrible on Sunday (3.9 yards per play, nine penalties, five sacks, etc.), and you got a dozen PPR points from the tight end position.

You’re lucky to have McBride on your roster, and I fully expect him to be a popular name on championship fantasy teams when all is said and done.

Tucker Kraft (vs. Commanders)

Brock Bowers gets used as the top pass catcher in Vegas, and Tyler Warren seems poised to assume that role in Indy – can we get that sort of commitment to Tucker Kraft?

Probably not.

The 15-yard touchdown against the Lions last week was a dime from Jordan Love, and all of the physical tools seem to be in place for Kraft to be a weekly difference-maker. Still, I have zero confidence that we will see any concentration of targets in this offense.

The Packers were getting anything they wanted, had various WR injuries, and saw Matthew Golden make his NFL debut. All of those things were working in favor of a consistent threat like Kraft, and he managed to earn just an 18.2% target share.

I’m comfortable starting him this week and counting on him moving forward, but the floor/ceiling math for a low-volume role has the potential to be maddening any week. For this week specifically, he slides inside my top 10 with the thought being that some of his banged-up teammates might be more limited on a short week.

Tyler Warren (vs. Broncos)

Tyler Warren wasted zero time in establishing himself as a problem at the professional level, and it looked all sorts of legitimate.

The pride of Penn State caught three of Daniel Jones’ first five passes last weekend (43 yards), a sign to me that his usage was written into the game plan.

You love to see it.

His debut could have been even better (he was contacted on an end-zone target), and he was even bleeding his nose with some blocks in scoring situations.

In short, it looks like we have a third straight season with a rookie as an elite fantasy asset at a position that we once ran from in terms of young guns.

Warren is already a no-brainer weekly starter, and while I need more than a single game against a floundering defense to make any bold claims, it’s more viable to believe that he could flirt with Tier 1 status this season.

Zach Ertz (at Packers)

Zach Ertz’s first catch of the season was a seven-yard score, continuing to show some fantasy stability after scoring seven times in Jayden Daniels’ rookie season.

More encouraging than the touchdown was the usage pattern of John Bates. If an elder statesman like Ertz is going to stay upright and productive all season, he’s going to need some help, and he got it in Week 1.

Commanders TE snaps/routes:

• Ertz: 40/30
• Bates: 34/27

If Bates is a hired gun when it comes to the dirty work, and 75% of the time that Ertz is on the field, he’s an option in the pass game, I’m open to the idea of him sneaking into the top-12 conversation weekly.

He sits outside of that for me this week due to some matchups for others in that range (Brenton Strange gets the Bengals, for example), but I do think you could do worse.