Get ready for another wild week in fantasy football, where even the most established quarterbacks can be volatile options. As rosters get tested by tough matchups and shifting offensive game plans, fantasy managers are left sorting between upside and floor at the QB position.
The NFL landscape is loaded with questions and uncertainty this week, making every lineup decision more intriguing. With big expectations riding on every snap, fantasy football managers will want to dig deeper into these storylines before locking in their lineups .
Aaron Rodgers | PIT (vs CIN)
There was a drop that turned into an interception.
There was a missed shot on a 41-yard touchdown to DK Metcalf that Aaron Rodgers probably hits about as often as Steph Curry makes a free throw.
I get that there were chances for Sunday night in Los Angeles to be very different for the future Hall of Famer, but it wasn’t. He’s started 250 games, and this was his seventh-worst (minimum 30 dropbacks) in terms of fantasy points per pass attempt.
- 31 attempts
- 16 completions
- 161 yards
- 1 TD
- 2 INTs
If not for the touchdown on Pittsburgh’s final possession of a 15-point loss, we are looking at one of the worst starts in recent memory for a player with a resume like that.
Less than a month ago, he threw four touchdown passes in Cincinnati against these Bengals on short rest.
So now what?
I’ll pass.
Rodgers has four games without multiple TD passes this season and has yet to reach 250 passing yards in a contest this year. I’m not suggesting that the Bengals come off their bye with some sort of revamped defense, but extra time to prepare for a vanilla offense that doesn’t challenge you down the field if they can help it?
I fully expect a bounce-back performance, but am I confident that he’s the sixth QB to score 20+ fantasy points against Cincinnati in their past seven games?
I’m not.
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With no mobility (he has as many TD passes as rushing yards), 20 points means 250 passing yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. That feels like a ceiling for Rodgers, and we saw on Sunday night that the floor could collapse in a big way if the script veers away from this conservative game plan.
The two teams on bye don’t require you to stream the position if you weren’t already, so the odds are very good that I’d advise you to stick with the man on your roster rather than go this direction: Rodgers is currently hovering around my QB15 for Week 11.
Baker Mayfield | TB (at BUF)
Baker Mayfield broke out of a modest two-game fantasy slump with 273 yards and three scores against the Patriots, funneling 58.1% of his targets to his two most trusted weapons in Emeka Egbuka and Cade Otton.
His willingness to focus on his top playmakers is commendable, and the Bills coughed up 8.2 yards per attempt to Tua Tagovailoa in the upset loss last week, but this is a profile that is still iffy at best.
Mayfield has gone three straight games without a single rushing attempt, and if Egbuka doesn’t land a big play, where does Mayfield look for fantasy production (non-Egbuka Bucs on Sunday: 152 yards on 22 catches and 30 targets)?
The Bills have had over 31 minutes of possession in eight of nine games this season, something that stands to limit Mayfield’s volume. After this week, consider me a Baker bull (Weeks 13-18 schedule: Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, and Panthers), but in the scope of Week 11, I’m lower than the industry average and have him on the fringe of usable.
Bo Nix | DEN (vs KC)
The Broncos have three wins this season in games in which they’ve scored under 20 points.
In the year 2025, team success and QB stats are as tied together as ever, but Bo Nix is the exception. Against the Raiders on Thursday night, we saw the developmental version of this profile rear its ugly head (one of six when throwing deep, with two interceptions), something that is at risk at any moment.
Nix lit up the Chiefs a season ago (48-of-59 for 536 yards and six touchdowns), but one of those games came in Week 18, and this version of this Denver offense isn’t nearly as potent.
If you’re playing Nix, you have to be very confident in the matchup, and even then, we saw that plan fall flat last week. I expect the Broncos’ defense to battle in this spot, and if they can keep this game close, we’ll see a lot of J.K. Dobbins.
The range of outcomes is as great as any QB this side of Justin Fields, and that makes him impossible to trust when facing a top 10 defense that should tie this offense in knots.
Brock Purdy | SF (at ARI)
There’s said to be cautious optimism in San Francisco that Brock Purdy will return from this nagging toe injury this week, and while the matchup is strong, you’d have to be in real trouble for me to green-light plugging him into a standard lineup with just two teams on a bye.
This system can, and probably will, make Purdy viable, but I need proof of health before gambling on the Kyle Shanahan scheme of goodness (Mac Jones has thrown for multiple scores in three straight games).
If you can sit on Purdy this week, I think you’re good to go next week on Monday night against the Panthers. The fantasy playoffs bring about a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears) that includes nothing but strong weather forecasts and good script projections.
You’ve been patient up to this point; all I’m asking for is one more week. If Purdy was cut loose, now is the time to beat the rush and add him. He won’t be ranked inside of my top 12 this week, even if 100% cleared for action, but if that’s the case, he’ll be in that mix for the remainder of the season and potentially inside the top 10 for that Week 15-17 stretch where your league champion is being decided.
Bryce Young | CAR (at ATL)
The Panthers could be in the worst possible spot as a franchise.
They’ve won too much this season to land a top pick, but they’ve done so without getting any signs of growth from Bryce Young.
The third-year QB has one touchdown pass over the past three games (70 attempts) and offers next to no vertical threat (four deep completions in those three games). His yards per blitzed pass attempt are down 17.7% from a season ago, despite having more talent at his disposal, and he is struggling to put together 30 good minutes, not to mention 60.
Could Carolina be aggressive at the 2026 draft in terms of trading up?
It’s far too early to speculate on that front, but it seems like we know, at the very least, that Young isn’t the answer that fantasy managers are looking for.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (at TEN)
C.J. Stroud (concussion) was unable to play last week, and the hope is that he can return for this advantageous spot.
Hopefully, your fantasy fate is not riding on this situation.
Stroud has just two finishes better than QB14 this season, and while he looked good in the first matchup with the Titans (Week 4: 22-of-28 for 233 yards and two touchdowns), they were happy to run the ball 35 times in that blowout win, thus capping the fantasy upside of their QB.
If you’re intrigued by this matchup, embrace the low ownership projection, stack him with Nico Collins, and be on your way for DFS purposes. If we are talking about a season-long conversation, you would really have to be backed into a corner to go this way, even in a plus-matchup.
Caleb Williams | CHI (at MIN)
Caleb Williams is far from perfect, but for fantasy managers, he’s good enough.
Amid snow flurries and dropped passes, Williams found his way to a fourth game this season with over 24 fantasy points, this time on the back of a season-high 49% of his production coming on the ground.
His ability to move (both within and out of the pocket) is what has me expecting another QB1 finish in this specific spot. The Vikings are an aggressive defense that likes to use exotic schemes, but Williams has seen them three times in his young career and handled the pressure last week just fine (five-of-nine with a touchdown).
That showing against the Giants was good enough to be the sixth time in eight games in which he posted a triple-digit passer rating when blitzed. Combine that passing savvy with the raw athleticism, and we could see a near replica of the stat line he put up last week, one that was essentially what he gave us in the opener against these Vikings.
I doubt it’ll be a flawless effort, but over the course of the 37.9 opportunities he averages, I like our chances of getting to 20 fantasy points one way or another.
Cameron Ward | TEN (vs HOU)
Cam Ward’s next multi-TD game will be the first of his professional career, and I don’t love the odds of it coming this week against a Texans team that held him to 4.2 yards per pass back in Week 4.
Is he a future fantasy starter?
I’m not sure. The 46 rushing yards this season are a red flag, as you’d expect a rookie to default to rushing when the game is going too fast, but that hasn’t been the case. This roster needs a talent infusion, and that could unlock a new level of upside, but as we stand right now, I’m having a hard time seeing Ward (zero finishes better than QB17 this season) ranking as a top-half-of-the-league option next year.
Dak Prescott | DAL (at LV)
Dak Prescott has five top-8 finishes at the position this season, and I’m confident that he makes it six this week on a fast track coming off the bye.
Lost in some of the big plays and the volume is that Prescott is on pace to set a career-low in average depth of throw, something that allowed him to post a high floor before Weeks 8-9 when both the Broncos and Cardinals completely dominated the game and made Dallas one-dimensional.
Dallas has lost three games this season by double digits. I’m going to assume we align in the thought that we don’t see that result play out on Monday night, and in the six instances in which that hasn’t been the case, he’s been closer to elite than a roster decision.
- 22.5 fantasy PPG
- 15 touchdown passes
- 1 interception
- 4.0 deep completions per game
Fantasy football circa 2025 isn’t a safe space for pocket-locked quarterbacks, but given how this roster is built and the PROE nature of this offense, I think we can not only assume that the visitors control this game, but that they do it largely on the right shoulder of Prescott.
He’s a locked and loaded QB1 this week: there should be zero hesitation on your part.
Dillon Gabriel | CLE (vs BAL)
I thought we saw some good things from Dillon Gabriel over the weekend. He threw multiple touchdown passes for a second consecutive game, both while outside the pocket (one such TD pass prior).
We do need to acknowledge that it was against a depleted Jets team, fresh off a selling trade deadline that saw them move on from two of their top defenders.
The surging Ravens obviously boast a different challenge and very much put the rookie at risk of a truly poor performance.
Baltimore’s defense is on my DFS radar as a late-afternoon hammer, potentially in a stack with Derrick Henry, though given his production, the Browns are one-dimensional, and we see mistakes in bulk in such a spot.
Geno Smith | LV (vs DAL)
We’ve seen Geno Smith clear 280 yards with at least three passing scores in two games this season, where they were forced to play in a hyper-aggressive manner with the opponent putting points on the board, so the odds of him putting up viable numbers on Monday night are non-zero.
But I wouldn’t label them as much higher than that.
He completed six vertical passes in the Week 3 loss in Washington and has just six such completions since (15 attempts). Consider this: Brock Bowers had the game of the year in Week 9, and Smith finished that week 1.5 points away from not being a top 10 performer for the week.
Outright dismissing anyone against the Cowboys is crazy talk, but if the Raiders score in bulk on Monday, I expect it to be via the ground game and Ashton Jeanty.
Don’t get cute.
J.J. McCarthy | MIN (vs CHI)
The idea of J.J. McCarthy is there: he’s an athletic QB with plenty of pedigree and a strong supporting cast.
The practical use of him in fantasy is much trickier.
He has more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes (five) in his four starts, and he’s failed to complete over 56% of his passes in three straight.
This is obviously a good matchup, and we saw McCarthy tear up the Bears in the fourth quarter of Week 1, but we play a 60-minute game, and the former Wolverine hasn’t done nearly enough to earn our trust.
Against the Ravens last week, on 42 pass attempts, McCarthy was fantasy’s QB16: I view that as something of a ceiling for Week 11.
Jacoby Brissett | ARI (vs SF)
With Kyler Murray on injured reserve, the runway is clear for Jacoby Brissett to operate without role concern over the next three weeks, and given his production, he deserves our attention.
Brissett is the only QB this season with four straight games of 250+ passing yards and multiple TD tosses, all of which have landed him as a top 12 performer at the position. He’s following the Joe Flacco path to success, and it’s working at a similar level: weigh down your top teammates with opportunities to make you look good.
In those four games, 52% of his targets have been directed toward Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride, a rate that helps the ceiling/floor math of Brissett.
Also factoring into his appeal is the fact that he’s run for at least 19 yards in three of those four games. His athleticism isn’t going to jump off the screen at you, but it’s enough to add a few bonus points and, more importantly, buy him time for Harrison/McBride to uncover.
After this week against the 49ers, the Cards face the Jaguars and Buccaneers, neither of whom has a pass defenses that scare me in a major way. At that point, Kyler Murray will be eligible to return, but are we sure this wasn’t just a soft benching?
If Brissett is producing for you, the odds are good that he’s functioning at a high level in Arizona, and that could result in him playing out the string of this season.
Why does that matter? Well, the Cards travel to Cincinnati when your fantasy league is being decided in Week 17. I’m not saying that he’ll be ranked as a top 10 QB in the most important week of our season, but I’m not ruling it out should he play well enough to hang onto the starting gig.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs DET)
The Eagles are 7-2, so we can’t really knock what they are doing, but they seem awfully content to milk the clock and play with small leads.
Jalen Hurts was QB18 last week against the Packers and now has three straight games without 20 completions OR a rushing touchdown. This potent Lions offense could push into a more aggressive script like the one we saw the Rams run back in September (Hurts accounted for 266 yards and four scores in that game), but it feels like the goal posts have shifted a bit for fantasy managers.
Instead of an elite ceiling and great floor, Hurts is trending toward a good ceiling with an above-average floor.
He’s a starter either way, and as long as the Tush Push is legal, Hurts is going to have Tier 1 upside thanks to the ways he can score points. That said, I think you’re well within reason to be disappointed with what you’ve gotten from him this season.
Jameis Winston | NYG (vs GB)
Jameis Winston was announced on Wednesday as the Week 11 starter for the Giants, and while that makes for fun headlines, you’re taking on a lot of risk with minimal reward potential by leaning into it for your fantasy roster.
From a macro standpoint, only once has a QB reached 20 fantasy points against the Packers this season, and Winston has hit that number in just three of his past nine starts.
That lone instance against Green Bay was Dak Prescott back in Week 3, a game in which George Pickens and Jake Ferguson caught 15-of-18 targets for 174 yards and three scores.
Who is going to do that sort of thing for Winston in New York?
The last three times that we’ve seen Winston start, he’s funneled at least 29.8% of his targets to a single star player. With Malik Nabers out for the season and a hapless run game, this is a one-dimensional offense without such a playmaker.
I’ve got Winston ranked outside of my top 20 at the position this week, ranking behind QBs that I generally don’t love but are in plus-matchups like Aaron Rodgers (vs. CIN), Geno Smith (vs. DAL), and Tua Tagovailoa (vs. WAS).
Jared Goff | DET (at PHI)
Jared Goff has multiple passing scores in five of his past six games and is completing 74% of his passes … and the offense may have just leveled up?
Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties last week, and Goff’s aDOT was 4.9 yards (Weeks 1-9: 6.6). If this offense leans into their elite skill players at that sort of level, Goff’s precision could make this the high-flying unit that we saw lead the league in scoring a year ago.
He was QB5 last weekend, his first top 10 finish since Week 2. These pocket-locked QBs require a very specific game plan to be fantasy relevant, and the shift to Campbell could well be what unlocks Goff.
The Eagles’ defense showed well against Jordan Love last week, but this is a different beast. My only concern is if we get some cool temperatures with precipitation and wind, but if the forecast is clear, I’m starting Goff and not thinking twice.
Jaxson Dart | NYG (vs GB)
Jaxson Dart is dealing with a concussion issue for the fourth time this season, and the piling up nature of injuries makes a change of style possible.
Good for his long-term health, but not for his fantasy stock.
Dart has a rushing score in five straight games and has averaged 8+ yards per pass in three of his past four. This iteration of Dart is an asset that could threaten the top tier next season, but if they try to take some of the crazy out of this, there’s natural risk that comes with changing how he sees the game.
All that said, I’m going to start him until we have tangible proof that a shift in style is happening. Dart isn’t going to play this weekend, but if he’s tasked with keeping up with the Lions on the fast track in Detroit next week, he’ll be flirting with top 5 status for me.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (at MIA)
The Commanders elected not to place Jayden Daniels (elbow) on injured reserve, thus opening the door for us to speculate about a return in either Week 13 (vs. Denver) or Week 14 (at Minnesota).
Am I confident that we get the elite version of him down the stretch of the lost season?
Not really, but I also wouldn’t have guessed he’d be in for the fourth quarter of a Week 9 blowout loss, so I’m not assuming anything.
There’s an Eagles matchup to navigate, but the Commanders get the Giants (Week 15) and Cowboys (Week 17, Christmas Day) during the fantasy postseason.
There’s upside to chase, and that means Daniels needs to be stashed across all formats if he is cut loose following the ugly injury on Sunday Night Football.
Joe Flacco | CIN (at PIT)
Can he keep doing it?
The obvious answer is no, but how much regression do we build in, and what does it look like?
Joe Flacco’s 17-Game Pace As A Bengal
- 5,330 passing yards
- 47 touchdown passes
- 9 interceptions
- 736 pass attempts
Realistically, it’s the last one that’s fueling this house of cards. We saw Flacco spin his magic in this matchup in Week 7 (47 passes, 342 yards, 3 TDs), with the majority of his completions (16) and targets (23) going to Ja’Marr Chase.
That’s a pretty simplistic game plan that is hard to rely on as it is, not to mention trying to run back the exact same plan against the same unit.
In Week 7 specifically, Cincinnati was trailing for each of its first 26 offensive snaps, and things got ramped up after halftime with five straight scoring drives coming out of the break.
Everything was working for both teams, and that allowed the environment to get out of control. In that game, Pat Freiermuth turned six targets into 111 yards, Jaylen Warren and Chase Brown ran for 235 yards on 27 carries, Noah Fant caught every target thrown his way with a touchdown, and that’s even without bringing the Chase game up.
We saw the Steelers slow down a Colts offense that felt unstoppable in Week 9, a reminder that there is a natural wide range of outcomes in this league week over week. The Bengals, coming off their bye, are a plus, but their defense will continue to struggle. Still, no reputable projection is going to spit out 76.8 points in this game — the average from Cincinnati’s three games pre-bye.
As the pace slows, the volume declines, magnifying any natural drawdown in numbers. League-wide over the past five seasons, we’ve seen defenses put a cap on pass upside, forcing opponents to beat them via papercuts.
For whatever reason, we haven’t seen as much of that against Flacco up to this point. In his four starts, five of his 27 completions past the sticks (18.5%) have resulted in touchdowns, well ahead of the league average that annually hovers in the 11-12% window.
From a macro standpoint, I think we see a shift in the defensive approach now that the Flacco renaissance of this offense has lasted a month. In his four weeks with the team, the Bengals are the eighth least blitzed team and allow pressure at the second-lowest rate.
We have a blueprint for what doesn’t work, and I expect, for better or worse, to see a complete shift in the approach to handling this offense. The low blitz rate is very much how Cincinnati was defended last season, with a fully healthy Joe Burrow calling the shots.
I’m projecting more aggression from the Steelers (a top-10 pressure rate when blitzing), and that puts Flacco on the fringes of viability this week, something that might seem crazy if you’re simply tracking box scores.
Is he that much different than fellow gray-beard Aaron Rodgers in this spot?
Jordan Love | GB (at NYG)
Jordan Love has three top-15 finishes this season and has been held without a touchdown in consecutive games (73 pass attempts against the Panthers and Eagles). It’s largely been an underwhelming season for the Leader of the Pack, but if you’re going to roll the dice, this lines up to be the spot.
Entering the season, we thought the Giants would struggle, but that their defensive front would at least create pressure.
Not so much.
The Giants rank No. 22 in non-blitz pressure rate this season, a flaw that doesn’t appear likely to be rectified, and one that has me ranking Love as my QB10.
Love When Not Pressured, 2024
- Completion Percentage: 70.1%
- Yards Per Attempt: 8.2
- Touchdowns: 18
- Interceptions: 6
Love When Not Pressured, 2025
- Completion Percentage: 82.9%
- Yards Per Attempt: 9.4
- Touchdowns: 13
- Interceptions: 1
The Packers need to right the ship after consecutive losses, and if they are going to level up, their quarterback figures to add a dimension that has been lacking recently.
Josh Allen | BUF (vs TB)
The Bills looked lost on Sunday. They were never all that competitive in Miami and couldn’t get anything going.
That feels like a worst-case scenario, so Josh Allen must have sunk your week, right?
- 306 passing yards
- 2 passing TDs
- 31 rushing yards
And now he faces something of a pass funnel in a matchup that could/should pass 50 points?
Allen is my QB1 this week, and while Keenan Coleman’s touchdown came late last week, it’s a good reminder that his deep-ball passer rating is 22.8% better this year than last.
Allen is the most bulletproof player at the highest scoring position; it really is that simple.
Justin Herbert | LAC (at JAX)
Justin Herbert wasn’t at his best against the Steelers last week, but he did have a 15+ yard rush for the third straight game, and the rushing numbers have been far more stable than I would have ever guessed.
The Jags blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the league, something that could have Herbert on the run and thus introduce some big plays. Before the poor showing in Week 10, Herbert had four straight games with multiple TD passes and completed over 67% of his passes in four of five.
I don’t want to speak out of turn, but current Herbert, in terms of fantasy, feels like Patrick Mahomes down the stretch of seasons in years past: an elite arm talent that is stretching his legs as a runner.
You’re looking at my QB5 this week and the top Tier 2 QB in my rankings for the remainder of the season.
Kyler Murray | ARI (vs SF)
The fact that we needed reports two weeks ago to tell us that the Cardinals’ starting Brissett was “not some kind of benching” of Kyler Murray is a concern.
The foot injury is a worry for a player who, at the peak of his powers, threatens defenses in a multitude of ways. But even pre-injury, we are talking about a quarterback who has yet to post a top-12 finish at the position this season.
Murray is pacing for a career low in both fantasy points per pass and per rush, making him a tough sell until we have a clean bill of health, and even then, I think I’d need to see it on the field before trusting him in lineups.
With the IR tag slapped on him last Wednesday, Murray will miss the remainder of the month, with a Week 14 return his next possible spot to impact our world.
The Cardinals play the Rams and Texans in Weeks 14-15, two matchups that I’d rather not touch, and that means, at best, a Week 16 home game against the Falcons is the next time you’d feel even remotely confident in considering Murray.
Jacoby Brissett needed garbage time last week, but he has this offense functioning at a higher level, which could mean Murray has already taken his final snap of 2022.
You can move on.
Lamar Jackson | BAL (at CLE)
It wasn’t a vintage performance on Sunday in Minnesota for Lamar Jackson (6.1 yards per pass with a touchdown, nine carries for 36 yards), but he looked healthy, and that’s the only box I need him to check right now.
Not only did he look the part, but the Ravens told us that they are confident in where he stands by having Mark Andrews flip him a pass out of a “tight” push formation.
It’s OK to admit that the ceiling isn’t what it once was. Jackson doesn’t have a 20-yard run this season and has cleared 225 passing yards just once (yet to throw 30 passes in a single game). I find it unlikely that he’s got a QB1 overall week left in the tank this season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be trusted as a solid top 7 option at the position.
Mac Jones | SF (at ARI)
Mac Jones is pulling the Kyle Shanahan levers at a high level, and that gives him a real chance to be the top streaming option on the board this week.
Since Week 7, the Cardinals have allowed the eighth most yards per pass. They are a matchup I’m happy to target, and if Jacoby Brissett is pushing tempo on the other side, even better!
Jones has multiple TD tosses in three straight and is 52-of-63 throwing the ball over the past two weeks. That looks more like a free-throw percentage than a completion percentage, but that’s what happens when you weigh down your most talented friends with looks (Week 10: 71.8% of targets were directed to George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, or Christian McCaffrey).
He’s clearly comfortable with this plan and potentially playing for his next contract. The Jones profile isn’t perfect, but if you’re pressed into a corner or want to get creative in DFS, I think there’s juice to squeeze here.
Marcus Mariota | WAS (at MIA)
The Commanders were never really competitive with the Lions last week, eliminating all hope for offensive balance (running backs: 22 carries for just 71 yards).
I don’t think Miami puts it on Washington the same way Detroit did, and that should help. Still, this defense has looked improved over their past two games played on standard rest (wins over the Falcons and Bills), and that gives us the excuse we need not at all to be interested in this offense.
In theory, Mariota’s legs offer some cheat code potential, but he doesn’t have a 10-yard rush in consecutive outings, and if that continues, it robs him of the single-play upside that would give him a prayer at finishing top 15.
Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs SEA)
Matthew Stafford is moving up the MVP odds board and for good reason after he became the first QB in NFL history to throw four touchdown passes with zero interceptions in back-to-back-to-back games.
During Los Angeles’ four-game win streak, he’s completing 81.5% of his passes with 12 TDs and 0 interceptions on balls thrown less than 10 yards, and that’s exactly why I’m playing him without a second thought in this matchup.
The Seahawks are a good, if not great, defense that swarms all over the place. That said, they rank 21st in YAC allowed per reception, and with Stafford getting the ball to his playmakers in a hurry, I expect his talent to be on display.
Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs CAR)
I’d be hard-pressed to put positive Michael Penix’s performance in Germany against the Colts as “good,” but he did all that we ask of him: give Drake London a chance to be the difference-maker we know him to be.
In the Week 9 loss to the Patriots, 40.9% of his completions (41.2% of his targets) went to his WR1, and half of his completions last week went that direction, numbers that don’t include the two-point conversion late.
Is Penix the long-term answer in Atlanta? Is he a future fantasy asset?
I’m not sold on either being true, but he doesn’t have to be for us to get what we need. If you have to go this direction in Superflex situations, I think you can get away with it because of London’s greatness, but outside of that league format, Penix shouldn’t be on your radar.
Patrick Mahomes | KC (at DEN)
The Broncos have quietly had Patrick Mahomes’ number of late (last three games: 138 dropbacks, two touchdowns, and three interceptions), and if Patrick Surtain (pec) can return to action, they are as well-equipped as anyone to slow down an offense that, at times, feels inevitable.
You can bet against Andy Reid, off a bye, coming off a loss… I’m not going to join you.
Before the Week 9 dud in Buffalo, Mahomes had four straight games with 28+ rushing yards and 7.8+ yards per pass. Not surprisingly, his ceiling has been raised even further since Rashee Rice returned from suspension, and this multifaceted attack should be able to handle even a tough matchup.
Denver has struggled some against power run games, but that’s not what Kansas City has access to, so I think we can count on another 40+ opportunity (pass-plus-rush attempts) game for Mahomes. This projection lands him easily inside of my top 10.
This isn’t a time to get cute. In fact, I’d be more likely to lean into the matchup concerns should it drive down projected DFS ownership.
Sam Darnold | SEA (at LAR)
Sam Darnold continues to impress, and this team has a Rashid Shaheed card to play when they are comfortable.
Could they unleash the deep threat in this huge game?
I was impressed with Darnold scrambling to extend an early play last week, keeping his eyes downfield and allowing Cooper Kupp to position himself in the perfect spot for what turned into a 67-yard gain.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
You could run away because of the three turnovers last week, but I’m not too worried on that front. The Rams allowed Mac Jones to eclipse 22 fantasy points for a second time last week, and I like the chances of Darnold posting top-15 numbers this week.
In Week 11, Dak Prescott (at Raiders) and Matthew Stafford are the only two true pocket passers that I have ranked ahead of Seattle’s main man.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs LAC)
The Chargers’ defense has looked great against inferior competition and given up some production to true dual threats on talented teams, so the question is simple: which bucket does Trevor Lawrence fall into?
At this point, I’m leaning toward the former, which has him outside my top 20 this weekend. Lawrence has just one multi-TD pass game over his past seven, and with the rushing production hit-or-miss, there are far more paths to failure than success when facing a tough defense.
We just saw Los Angeles force Aaron Rodgers into one of the worst games we’ve ever seen him play, and while Lawrence offers more mobility than that, if the passing metrics struggle, you need a multi-rush TD game to make this stream worth it — and that’s just not the smart play.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs WAS)
Tua Tagovailoa had the two interceptions last week in the upset of the Bills, the fourth time in five games he has had at least as many INTs as TDs, but overall, I thought he played above his season average for the second time in three weeks.
The touchdown pass to Jaylen Waddle was a 38-yard dime, and his willingness to feed his WR1 since the Tyreek Hill injury is good to see. Waddle has at least five grabs in five of six games and has a 35+ yard catch in four of those games, a trend that has developed thanks to a versatile skill set.
Tagovailoa is doing what we need him to do for the pieces we trust in this offense (De’Von Achane is pacing for 83.3 receptions and is already over 1,100 scrimmage yards). Still, without rushing upside or passing aggression, there’s really no risk analysis that is going to work in favor of Miami’s signal-caller for fantasy managers.
When Throwing Past The Sticks
- 2022: 117.0 passer rating, 2.6 TD/INT
- 2023: 109.3 passer rating, 1.4 TD/INT
- 2024: 92.3 passer rating, 1.0 TD/INT
- 2025: 67.4 passer rating, 0.6 TD/INT
It’s perfectly fair to say that we’ve seen some better play from Tagovailoa of late, but that doesn’t mean he should be starting for your fantasy team, even in a plus-matchup.