Kyle Soppe’s Updated Week 10 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (at LAC)

Sunday was the perfect example of why you can’t trust Aaron Rodgers in fantasy this year.

He played well. He didn’t turn the ball over, managed the clock, and led his team to an upset win over the Colts.

He threw for 203 yards and one score, averaging just 8.1 yards per completion.

The Steelers have been far more competitive than anyone thought, and without the benefit of a crazy game script, this offense isn’t designed for Rodgers to provide us with gaudy stat lines.

It’s designed for him to do exactly what he did against Indianapolis. The future Hall of Famer threw 35 passes, and not one of them resulted in a 20-yard gain. With little splash play potential and even less rushing upside, everything needs to be perfect for Rodgers to be on the fringe of QB1 production.

That’s not a range of outcomes that interests me in any matchup, let alone against a defense that has allowed under 4.5 yards per play over its past two games.

Baker Mayfield | TB (vs NE)

Baker Mayfield’s stock has dipped after opening the season with six straight games scoring north of 17 fantasy points, as he has totaled just 15.2 total points over the past two (road games against the Lions and Saints).

I’m not overly worried about it, but it is a reminder that, outside of a select few, the range of outcomes is wide at the highest scoring position in the game.

Mayfield doesn’t have a single rushing yard in either one of those tough games and has been held to 15 or fewer in five straight after clearing 30 in each of his first three. He was the fifth-best QB in Weeks 1-5 and has been QB24. It goes without saying that he slots in between those two extremes moving forward and could trend closer to the hot streak by season’s end, should the roster around him get healthy.

For now, this is a shaky profile in a tough matchup. You’re not going to find a better option on the waiver wire, so you’re rolling with Mayfield this week, but you’ll need your skill position players to do the heavy lifting.

Mayfield is hovering around QB10 for me this week.

Brock Purdy | SF (vs LAR)

Brock Purdy (toe) continues to rehab an injury that has limited him to two games so far, both of which saw plenty of good (293 passing yards and two pass TDs per game) and plenty of bad (multiple INTs in both with just a 57.9% completion rate in his last start).

This is a talented roster, but health has been hard to come by for all involved, and until all boats are pushing in the same direction, I can’t justify going this direction until we know that he is fully healthy.

During the fantasy postseason, the 49ers get the Titans and Bears at home in addition to a road game against the high-flying Colts. Purdy is rosterable right now in all formats, but I won’t be playing him this week should he make his much-awaited return.

Bryce Young | CAR (vs NO)

The Panthers don’t want Bryce Young to carry the fate of their week in his hands, and that should be all you need to know.

This is a team that prefers to shorten every game and run the ball to set up the run.

Young has reached 200 passing yards just once this season, and yet, they’ve won each of their past four starts.

I don’t think the team’s success is sticky, but I’m also not sold that the flipping of game scripts puts Young anywhere near the QB1 radar. The rushing numbers have evaporated after an encouraging Week 1, and the decision-making is still below average (one end zone interception last week, and he wasn’t far from a second).

This should be a close game, and those are the spots where Young projects poorly, even by his already low standards.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs JAX)

C.J. Stroud will miss this week with a concussion, and if history serves as a guide, that would position him to be on the right side of questionable for next week in Tennessee.

In a perfect world, this news wouldn’t impact you. Stroud has failed to throw multiple TD passes in four games this season, and even with some increased rushing utility, his upside has been capped.

If everything goes right, his connection with Nico Collins gives him the ability to post a top 12 week in the perfect spot, but more often than not, he’s going to rank among the streamers.

Davis Mills takes over this week, and he funneled targets to Collins upon replacing Stroud last week, so the value of the surrounding pieces doesn’t take a big hit with this news.

Caleb Williams | CHI (vs NYG)

In what could be the game of the year, Caleb Williams threw for three scores, ran for 53 yards, and stayed composed in a day full of chaos.

It was a great fantasy day and a strong signal in terms of his development, but not every game will see 89 total points scored. The second-year QB had a total of two touchdown passes in his four games before the win in Cincinnati: what we can expect moving forward is somewhere in the middle of those disastrous games and what we saw on Sunday.

On the plus side, it would appear that Ben Johnson is comfortable enough with his new team to introduce his mad scientist schemes. The touchdown catch helped boost his value, and while that’s obviously not something we’re banking on, creativity is the primary path for Williams to hit our lineups weekly.

I like this matchup (Mac Jones was perfect, 14-of-14, against the Giants in the first half last week), and I like the script that is always possible for Williams to find himself in while playing next to a bad defense.

Not every opponent has Joe Flacco, but most will be able to force this offense to be aggressive, and that’s all I need from a player who has some Brett Favre in him.

Daniel Jones | IND (vs ATL)

We saw everything go right for Rodgers, and he was still unable to return much in the way of fantasy production.

The inverse of that was Daniel Jones, who turned the ball over five times, yet still managed some reasonable counting numbers (340 passing yards, TD, rush TD). The Falcons have dropped three straight games and profile as a decent get-right spot in Germany for the Colts.

We saw some spike games from Jones early in the season, and while I don’t think we get back to that level of production, we’ve seen Jones routinely finish in the QB8-12 range, and that’s sustainable.

Indianapolis wants to run things through Jonathan Taylor, and while that limits the upside of their QB, I think it also has a sneaky way of keeping his floor high.

Either the defense has to sell out to stop JT and is left vulnerable in the secondary, or Taylor is gashing them and putting this offense in a position to score with regularity.

Neither of those is a poor outcome, and that means I think you can get away with playing him weekly.

Dillon Gabriel | CLE (at NYJ)

There have been some whispers about the QB position in Cleveland, and that’s good for talk shows, but I’m not sure we care at all.

Dillon Gabriel’s best finish this season is QB18, and while he has a pair of multi-TD games, he has been unable to string four solid quarters together, something that I believe has as much to do with his situation as it does with his raw skill set.

Shedeur Sanders would encounter the same problems. At best, there are two viable options on this offense: Quinshon Judkins and whoever ends up being the featured tight end. Jerry Jeudy is the true loser in this situation, as he’s the asset for whom we had high hopes, but has been unable to do much of anything.

Drake Maye | NE (at TB)

That’s now four straight games with a 35+ yard completion and 7+ rush attempts for Drake Maye as he has established himself as a lineup lock that can produce against any type of defense.

We saw some of his youth on display last week, as evidenced by a bad fumble that resulted in a tight game with the Falcons at halftime, as opposed to the Patriots laying down the hammer.

Those moments are going to happen, but the good (great) moments have far outweighed those learning moments, and that is why New England’s franchise QB is a fantasy asset that you can get your season on.

Some of Maye’s football maturity was on display last week as he diagnosed a red zone third-down situation where he could have forced the ball into a tight window, but instead opted to move the chains with his legs.

Little moments like that are taking place every week in addition to the splash moments that make the highlight shows.

I still think he’s a WR1 away from flirting with the top tier at the position, but he’s the next best thing, and given the price you paid this summer, that puts you in a position to compete at the highest level.

Can you capitalize on the value you already have and build around it?

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (vs BAL)

This is the definition of a prospect that is being thrown to the wolves and learning on the fly.

J.J. McCarthy returned from the ankle injury that had kept him sidelined since suffering the injury in Week 2 and looked great in executing the predetermined script before struggling on the way in.

It was the inverse of what we saw in his NFL debut, and these crazy swings are a part of the growth process for many QBs. In his two quarters of looking like a world beater, McCarthy has completed 11-of-15 passes for 155 yards and four touchdowns.

The ability to have spikes like that is encouraging. There are a half-dozen QBs on the streaming consciousness that haven’t flashed potential like that.

Having said that, he’s 27-of-51 for 289 yards and four interceptions in the other 10 quarters of his season.

In a perfect world, we would see the range of quarterly outcomes narrow over time this year, and McCarthy can execute the Kevin O’Connell system in 2023 the way Sam Darnold did last season.

He’s sitting atop my list of “evaluate and be patient” options. It’s not impossible for him to be used as a one-off option in a month or so (matchups with the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants await), but I’d be surprised if that’s the case.

I think you can do better this week if you’re looking to replace Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, or the ever-valuable Joe Flacco this weekend.

Jacoby Brissett | ARI (at SEA)

Isn’t it amazing how simple yet complicated this game can be at times?

The Cardinals haven’t asked for Jacoby Brissett to reinvent the wheel, and he’s executed at a reasonably high level. Last week, he became the first QB to throw for 260 yards and multiple TDs in three straight appearances (all of which resulted in top 12 weeks) this season, and he seemed to unlock something in Marvin Harrison Jr. in the first half last week.

I like what he’s brought to the table, but I hate this spot. During that four-week (three-game) stretch, Brissett ranks 20th in pressured passer rating and fifth when not pressured. Those struggles figure to be amplified against a defense that ranks third in pressure rate when not blitzing over the past month.

Brissett ranks outside of my top 15, and Kyler Murray wouldn’t rank much more favorably.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (at GB)

After consecutive losses, the Eagles leaned into their pass game and were rewarded in a major way.

• Record: 2-0
• Points: 66
• CMP%: 79.1%

Jalen Hurts was as efficient as anyone in the NFL in the two weeks prior to the Week 9 bye (34-of-43 for 505 yards and seven touchdowns), reminding us of why he’s an elite fantasy option.

The Tush Push is a cheat code, we know that, but this isn’t a one-dimensional player. This is going to be a fun Monday nighter, and I believe the Packers can defend this offense in a unique way, but that doesn’t shift Hurts out of the top tier.

He can be a difference-maker in a variety of ways, and that’s exactly why you paid a premium in August for his services.

Jared Goff | DET (at WAS)

Jared Goff has completed over 67% of his passes in four straight games and has multiple TD tosses in four of his past five. These numbers put him on the QB1 radar against a Washington defense that has struggled for the majority of the season and was diced up by Sam Darnold on Sunday night.

The upside is naturally limited from this skill set (he has one 20-point game since Week 2), but he’s as good as it gets on those timing routes (82.5% completion rate on balls thrown less than 10 yards down field, pacing to easily best his career high 78% from last year) and that makes him among the safest bets for 20+ completions in any given week.

There’s always risk in playing him in a spot like this, where Detroit could probably win this game with 40 rush attempts. But for a team that has lost two of three and is in an all-out brawl for NFC North supremacy, I expect an aggressive plan that should enable Goff to post a top-15 floor with a chance to mirror the success of Darnold.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (at CHI)

Since 2015, three first-round rookies have rattled off a streak of four straight games with a rushing TD: Todd Gurley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and, after last week, Jaxson Dart.

His final stat line was helped some in garbage time, but a career-high in completion percentage (72.7%) and multiple TD passes for the third time in five games is impressive nonetheless.

On the first drive, he moved the chains with a third-down scramble and put a bow on the possession with a 15-yard TD pass to Theo Johnson. He’s executing the game script, and while some of the production can be spotty as things progress, there is no denying that his skill set is built for our game.

The top three scoring QBs against the Bears this season have all been more pocket-focused than Dart (Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, and J.J. McCarthy), so it’ll be interesting to see how the rookie is defended, but I expect him to continue to put this offense on his back.

The total for this game could push 50 by kickoff, and while I don’t expect this to look like the Bears/Bengals chaos from last week, I do expect the game environment to be favorable enough for Dart to post a top-10 week.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs DET)

I thought Jayden Daniels looked recovered from the hamstring injury last week.

It wasn’t a work of art, but to my eye, that was more of a Seattle defense thing than anything to truly worry about when it comes to Daniels.

And then it happened.

Down 31 with under eight minutes left, Daniels was sacked while trying to make a play on the doorstep, falling to the ground with his arm caught in about as awkward a spot as possible, dislocating his elbow in the process.

Marcus Mariota is going to get the nod as this team tries to pull this season out of the fire, but this is a brutal spot, and I fear that there will be no reason to rush the Daniels’ recovery process.

Jordan Love | GB (vs PHI)

The Eagles’ defense is solid, but quarterbacks have had some success in terms of fantasy production against them this season in terms of a production floor (17.9+ points scored in four of their past five games).

If Jordan Love were in strong fantasy form, I’d be promoting him as a fringe top 10 QB in this spot, but that’s not the case, and he’s now without his most consistent pass catcher in Tucker Kraft.

Love has failed to throw multiple TD passes in three of his past four games, and the rushing production is sporadic at best. I’ve been impressed with the accuracy (70.8% completion this season), and that elevates the floor for Green Bay’s signal-caller, but I don’t see much of a ceiling here, and that’s why I have him ranked behind Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, and Sam Darnold this week.

Josh Allen | BUF (at MIA)

Josh Allen has one (1) game this season in which he didn’t have multiple touchdown passes or multiple touchdown runs, and the Dolphins don’t exactly project as the type of defense to slow down the reigning MVP.

Allen has scored over 22 fantasy points in seven of his past eight games against Miami (78.6% completion rate with three TDs in Week 3 in this matchup) and tops my rankings at the position this week.

For DFS purposes, the QB slot could differentiate you from the field.

Justin Fields | NYJ (vs CLE)

I don’t have kids.

I’m not sure I have the patience for it. Never have been. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’ve avoided finding out by opting to not go that route.

My guess is that there is a direct correlation between willingness to develop children and willingness to roster Fields.

If you have that level of patience and understanding, I’m happy for you. I can’t do it.

• Week 1: 29.5 fantasy points
• Week 2: 4.0
• Week 3: DNP
• Week 4: 27.1
• Week 5: 25.9
• Week 6: 4.9
• Week 7: 4.0
• Week 8: 20.9

Matchups have driven the spikes (the most recent good games came against the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Bengals), and this doesn’t profile as one of those spots.

That said, I don’t have kids.

My siblings do, and their sporadic kids surprise them all the time. The range of outcomes for Fields is too broad for me to provide advice with a high level of confidence. I wouldn’t be playing him, even with two weeks to prepare.

But I would have missed out on the big performances.

If you roster Fields, I guess that your team is a very stressful 5-4 or 4-5. Are you comfortable starting him, potentially with your playoff seed on the line?

Dart (at CHI) is an easy play over him for me, and I’d rather spend my weekend with Sam Darnold (vs. ARI) or Stroud (vs. JAX) if given the choice.

Justin Herbert | LAC (vs PIT)

Justin Herbert is pacing for over 4,500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards this season.

No big deal, that’s just never been done in the long history of this wonderful game.

He threw a pick-6 on his third pass of Week 9, but rebounded quickly and put on another strong showing for his fantasy managers.

Things like a career-high completion percentage when throwing past the sticks or his greatest TD% when passing inside the red zone are encouraging, but not really surprising; it’s part of the development of a high-pedigree prospect.

The athleticism is what jumps off the screen at me. He’s already two yards away from a career high in rushing yards, and the manner in which he is doing it is beyond impressive.

Last week alone, he had a pump fake, scramble, and continue to threaten the defense downfield with his eyes play that ended with a 29-yard gain on the ground (his third 20+ yard effort of the season).

His first rushing TD came on a scramble, and with each passing week, he looks a little bit more like Patrick Mahomes.

That’s obviously not a name I mention lightly. Herbert is my QB4 and is vying for Tier 1 status. He’s got some tough matchups coming home, but a date with Dallas in Week 16 should help advance you to the finals of your league, should you get there, and while the Texans will be waiting for him, he’s pretty clearly entered the matchup-proof zone at the position.

Enjoy the price you paid this summer for his services; it’s going to be drastically different this upcoming August.

Kirk Cousins | ATL (at IND)

Kirk Cousins wasn’t exactly dealt a full hand in his spot start against the Dolphins in the Week 8 loss, but 21 completions for 173 yards and zero touchdowns against one of the worst defenses in the sport is unacceptable.

It shouldn’t have mattered to you, but given that we have seen some backup QBs provide decent numbers when pressed into duty, it needs to be said.

Cousins isn’t that.

Michael Penix (knee) is the better player at this point, and he is having his own issues that warrant our attention. You can start a trio of Falcons weekly, but you’re not touching the QB position.

Kyler Murray | ARI (at SEA)

The fact that we needed reports last week to tell us that the Cardinals’ starting Brissett was “not some kind of benching” of Kyler Murray is a concern.

The foot injury is a worry for a player who, at the peak of his powers, threatens defenses in a multitude of ways, but even pre-injury, we are talking about a QB who has yet to post a top-12 finish at the position this season.

Murray is pacing for a career low in both fantasy points per pass and per rush, making him a tough sell until we have a clean bill of health, and even then, I think I’d need to see it on the field before trusting him in lineups.

With the IR tag slapped on him Wednesday, Murray will miss the remainder of the month with a Week 14 return his next possible spot to impact our world.

The Cards play the Rams, and Texans in Weeks 14-15, two matchups that I’d rather not touch and that means, at best, a Week 16 home game against the Falcons is the next time you’d feel even remotely confident in considering Murray.

It’s tough, but if you don’t have an IR slot to use, I think you can move on without much concern in standard-sized leagues.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (at MIN)

I thought Lamar Jackson looked rusty for about six plays on Thursday night in Miami.

Yes, it was the ideal matchup, but after missing a month, we can’t be anything but impressed with his return to action (18-of-23 for 204 yards and four scores).

Critics will highlight the 14 rushing yards (13 of which came on one carry), but I think he’s built up enough equity on that front for us to trust that those numbers bounce back with time and confidence in his body.

With the Vikings and Browns over the next two weeks, Jackson faces much tougher competition, and we should get a better feel for whether he is close to his prior MVP form.

If he is, look out. Bengals-Steelers-Bengals is the schedule for the Ravens in Weeks 13-15, a run that could have your fantasy team absolutely soaring come playoff time. Matchups with the Patriots and Packers (at Lambeau) during the final two weeks of our season are obviously less than ideal, but at the peak of his powers, Jackson is a matchup-proof ace.

I’m not here to pour water on the strong game, but it does need to be said.

Volume.

We routinely see the Josh Allens and Patrick Mahomes of the world clear 40 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts): Jackson has hit 35 just once over the past 11 months.

Part of that is due to his brilliance and putting points on the board quickly, but if there is one thing that will prevent him from carrying you over these next two months, that’s it.

Mac Jones | SF (vs LAR)

Jones was perfect in the first half.

Not a matter of opinion, fact.

In his fifth start of the season, he completed all 14 of his passes in the first 30 minutes for 143 yards and a pair of scores. He’s completed over 65% of his passes in six of his seven outings this season and now has more games with multiple passing touchdowns than not.

That said, the rushing upside isn’t there, and we haven’t seen much yardage potential through the air of late (last three games: 193.3 per game). Brock Purdy is nearing his return, and once that happens, you can cut ties.

I understand the desire to hold Jones and ask Purdy to prove that he can stay on the field, but is he worth it?

How much better is Jones than the names on your wire?

My guess is, not much. Marcus Mariota owns a more favorable profile, while you can always find Aaron Rodgers-type players that can expose a favorable matchup (Weeks 11-15: Bengals, Bears, Bills, Ravens, and Dolphins).

Marcus Mariota | WAS (vs DET)

Marcus Mariota has run for 20+ yards in all three of his starts this season (and once in relief duty) and averaged 7.3 yards per pass, an interesting profile that will likely continue as he moves forward in the job.

Personally, I view him as a low-end streamer that has more DFS appeal in a contrarian build than I do a redraft asset, but there’s at least some proof of concept there with him in this system as Washington fights to keep its season alive in a tough spot.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (at SF)

It’s difficult to survive in this fantasy world of ours with next to zero rushing equity, but Matthew Stafford’s current form is about what it takes.

He’s thrown nine touchdown passes over his past two games and has at least two through the air in six of his past seven games. The highlight from last week was an absolute dime to Puka Nacua to beat nearly perfect coverage as part of a 15-for-18 start (164 yards and three scores).

Stafford is pacing toward his best YPA season since 2021 and wasn’t shy about featuring his favorites in the Week 5 meeting against these Niners (71.7% of his targets went to Nacua, Davante Adams, or Kyren Williams).

Due to some of the dual-threat QBs having favorable matchups, I can’t get Stafford inside of my top 10 this week, but he’s not far from it and is trending as strong as any pocket passer in the sport.

Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at IND)

The knee didn’t look to hamper Michael Penix in a major way last week, and now he’s gone three straight without an interception.

If you want to say that he’s slowly developing at the NFL level, I’ll listen. But he’s been held under 6.5 yards per attempt in four of his past six games and has just three finishes this season better than QB17.

On the bright side, we saw him be rewarded for funneling all of the valuable looks in the direction of Drake London, and that’s Penix’s impact on our game.

Sam Darnold | SEA (vs ARI)

This game is being played on Sunday, and that means you can pencil in Sam Darnold for multiple touchdown passes (he’s done it in five straight Sundays).

The first game against the Cardinals didn’t qualify as such (Thursday Night Football in Week 4), and he finished with an underwhelming stat line (242 pass yards and one touchdown). These pocket-locked QBs seem to have gotten better recently at weighing down their top teammates with targets (i.e., Joe Flacco, Michael Penix, and Matthew Stafford), and as long as Darnold is doing that, he’s on the QB1 radar.

He’s accounted for two of the three perfect passer ratings for a first half this season, a stat that speaks to his ability to carry out the pregame script.

The 300-yard bonus is on the radar for DFS players, and with the greatness of Jaxon Smith-Njigba on display weekly, Darnold slides into the back-end of the QB1 tier for me in Week 10.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at HOU)

Jacksonville’s addition of Jakobi Meyers on Tuesday speaks to its willingness to build around Trevor Lawrence, which is good for his dynasty value.

As for his redraft value, he’s a matchup play at best when you’re desperate.

This isn’t the type of matchup you target.

The Texans rank fourth in pressure rate, have more INTs than pass TDs allowed, and allow the second-fewest yards per pass. Lawrence has just two games with multiple passing scores this season, so unless you think he goes over the top for a short rush TD, there really isn’t a clear path for him to post top 15 numbers in this brutal matchup.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs BUF)

This can be tough to watch.

Tua Tagovailoa threw 40 passes against the Ravens on Thursday night and finished with 8.5 fantasy points, the third time in four games in which he’s been held to that number or worse.

The problem, pretty clearly, is the ceiling/floor analysis. Even with five multi-TD pass games on his ledger this season, Tagovailoa has reached 16 fantasy points just three times. What you get when he plays well doesn’t come close to offsetting the duds like this, and that makes him unrosterable in any one-QB league.

Fantasy Points Per Pass Attempt

• 2022: 0.56
• 2023: 0.49
• 2024: 0.44
• 2025: 0.40

The four-TD game of Week 8 was always going to be a mirage, and I need you to remember the feeling you have around Tagovailoa right now. The disappointment. The despair. The lack of statistical upside.

Why?

This team has home games against the Saints (Week 13) and Bengals (Week 16) remaining on its schedule, spots that will make it easy to fall into the trap of considering him worth a look in desperate situations.

Remember how bad the bad is and how so-so the great is. Tagovailoa isn’t a player you want your fantasy fate in the hands of, even in those seemingly strong spots.

Tyler Shough | NO (at CAR)

In his first career start, Tyler Shough did about what we expected against a Rams defense that was able to pin their ears back due to the game script.

All things considered, I didn’t think it was that bad. He averaged 7.3 yards per pass and saw his two primary receivers account for the majority of his completions, yards, and targets.

There’s a massive gap between “I didn’t think it was that bad” and “worthy of consideration on our end”.

Shough is 1-of-13 this season with an interception when pressured, something that he will work to improve over the final two months of this season. The idea of starting him now is not to win games or put up numbers; it’s to accelerate the development curve so that if this team can build a competitive roster, their QB has a chance to prove additive.

I’m not sold that Shough is the man long-term in New Orleans, but at least the team will gather data points to consider during his rookie season.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (vs BAL)

I was both impressed and discouraged by what we saw from Aaron Jones last week in the upset win over the Lions.

On one hand, he proved that there is still gas in the tank. He picked up yardage on every carry against a formidable defense and was used in creative ways on the first drive.

There was a play where he lined up out wide, jabbed as if to give the impression that he was running a vertical route, came back for a bubble screen, and picked up 15 yards that led to a Justin Jefferson touchdown.

Vintage Jones stuff and the type of thing he’ll have to do if we are going to flex him moving forward.

But there’s a volume issue here, and I don’t think that changes. Despite him holding the hot hand and the Vikings largely in control, Jones finished with 11 opportunities (carries plus targets). Jordan Mason struggled to get anything going in the right direction (37 yards on his 11 opportunities). McCarthy was a bad quarterback after the opening script ran out, and yet, Kevin O’Connell didn’t load up the veteran with work.

Against a rested Ravens defense that is getting healthier, is a 15-touch ceiling going to cut it?

Is his touch ceiling even that high?

I want Jones over Mason in a game like this where the expectation is that Minnesota is playing from behind, but at some level, that might be shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. Jones sits just outside of my top 24 at the position this week, while Mason is half a dozen spots lower.

Alvin Kamara | NO (at CAR)

Alvin Kamara battled an ankle injury through the work week and was able to give it a go in Los Angeles last week, but he was predictably ineffective and is now on the outside looking in at startable RBs.

Every metric you look at, from volume numbers to efficiency and expected ones, it’s clear that Kamara is on the back-nine of his career. Sadly, that process is being sped up due to the ineptitude around him.

His role as a pass catcher hasn’t been the same this year as seasons past, and we were holding out hope that a change under center couldn’t hurt that downward trajectory.

Well, it certainly didn’t make things better.

If you want to tell yourself that this is going to be a tight game and thus a 16-18 touch day is possible, go for it. You’re an optimist at heart, and I admire that.

I’m actively looking for reasons to bench Kamara as my flex. If pressed, I’d start both Seattle backs over him and wouldn’t shy away from a receiver like Romeo Doubs in his spot.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (at HOU)

Bhayshul Tuten punched in a goal-line carry last week against the Raiders and continues to run hard.

The future is bright for this rookie. Travis Etienne’s rookie deal runs out after this season (Jacksonville picked up his option to get him through his fifth season), and that could result in Tuten being an asset as soon as Week 1 of 2026.

In the scope of 2025, I don’t think you can tell me that he’s a viable flex option. This obviously wouldn’t be the matchup to do it, but I think we’d have more proof of a plan if the 5-3 Jags were planning on unleashing him down the stretch.

Hold.

I don’t think Tuten has a real shot at unseating Etienne atop this depth chart, but he is a pretty clear-cut RB2 for Jacksonville, and that means that he’s essentially walking into fantasy RB2 status if Etienne were to suffer any sort of injury.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (at IND)

It’s a little quirky that Bijan Robinson has gone three straight games without a touch gaining more than 17 yards, but I’m not worried about it.

There’s been no rushing efficiency to speak of over those games, but he’s received 21 targets over that stretch, and for a player this dynamic, that’ll work.

His 17-game pace is for over 87 receptions this season, and when you consider that he is always in scoring position, that level of volume is golden. Without efficiency, he can still give you borderline RB1 production, and if he can get on track on the ground, he’s got as good a shot as anyone to lead the position in scoring.

Robinson is a Tier 1 running back every single week and should allow you to get fantasy points in bunches with your morning coffee this week, even against a Colts run defense that looked good in Pittsburgh last week (23 carries for 38 yards).

Blake Corum | LAR (at SF)

Is Blake Corum a version of Tyler Allgeier that simply didn’t get the rookie season to own a backfield?

Like Allgeier, he’s not going to take meaningful amounts of work off the role of the RB1 in town, but he does add something when he enters the game, and that’s why he’s on the list of handcuffs that I’ll hold through the end of the season.

Over the past two games, Corum has picked up yardage on 23-of-25 carries, a true skill considering that 44% of those attempts have come against a loaded box. Both of those games were blowouts, and thus the expanded touch count: he’s a long shot to reach double figures in touches in any given week, and that’s why he can’t be considered a flex with a healthy Kyren Williams.

That said, he’s a lineup lock should the RB1 role open up, and that profile is difficult to find in this era of committees.

Breece Hall | NYJ (vs CLE)

Prior to the Week 9 bye, Breece Hall had the best game of his season, piling up 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Bengals. I think we can agree that there is some grading on a curve that needs to take place with that performance, and as long as we are at it, let’s contextualize the past six games.

• Three Favorable Spots (CIN, DAL, MIA)
  • 22.2 PPR PPG
  • +37.1% relative to expectations
  • 1.13 points per touch
• Three More Difficult Spots (CAR, DEN, TB)
  • 7.4 PPR PPG
  • -38.7% relative to expectations
  • 0.46 points per touch

This profiles as a snake-eyes spot for those gambling on the Jets.

The Browns are just as rested as they are and haven’t allowed an RB to score 13 PPR points since Week 4. Some of that is their strong defense, and some of it is the type of ugly, clock-killing type of games they tend to play, but one way or another, opposing backs have had all sorts of trouble in this matchup.

If you don’t have an RB behind Hall that projects for 13-16 touches, it’s going to be difficult to pivot, but I’m certainly downgrading Hall and avoiding him in all DFS formats.

Bucky Irving | TB (vs NE)

Logic would state that we are nearing a return for Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder), considering that he last played in Week 4 and the team elected not to place him on injured reserve. Still, we lack clarity right now, and that leads me to assume he’s set to miss at least another game.

Should he return, I think you should wait a week. He doesn’t have a 20-yard carry this season (71 attempts), with his splash plays coming in the passing game. That’s great, but it’s also the one area where Rachaad White excels, so if his reps are going to be managed, I fear that he will lose the touch that this backfield has in depth.

I still think Irving has every chance to be a top-10 RB for the final month of the season as Tampa Bay plays important games. If you’re looking to roll the dice in a late-season trade, this is a spot I’d be looking at, operating under the assumption that the manager rostering him is struggling in a major way.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (vs DET)

I thought Chris Rodriguez ran reasonably hard in the blowout loss to the Seahawks on Sunday night (12 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown). Still, he comes with similar limitations as Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and that means that the contingent value is minimal at best.

And that value took a hit with the Jayden Daniels injury that saps this offense of some scoring equity.

I don’t doubt that Rodriguez would be the proper add should JCM get hurt, but I do doubt that such a role would lock him into lineups.

If you have a roster spot to burn and are low on RB depth, sure. Outside of that very specific situation, there are likely a dozen receivers on your waiver wire that have a better ROS outlook as you cycle through flex players to hold for the stretch run.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs LAR)

Christian McCaffrey has more catches than any other running back in the sport has targets this season and has now handled 17+ rush attempts in six of seven games.

The role of CMC has been like no other back in the game for quite some time now, and while the rushing efficiency remains average, he’s even trending in the right direction on that front.

Over his past three games, McCaffrey has gained 5+ yards on 36.7% of his carries, a massive leap forward from his three games prior (21.4%).

There isn’t a defense that can keep the best back in football in check. That said, there are a handful of favorable spots left on the board for the 49ers, so as long as CMC can stay on the field, he could prove to be the rare Round 1 league winner.

So far, so good when it comes to your willingness to embrace the minor discount this summer.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs NO)

I don’t know if we are yet in the droppable stage of disappointment, but we’re not far from it.

The Panthers displayed patience with Chuba Hubbard following the injury, but the Rico Dowdle run hasn’t slowed, and that has led this coaching staff to suggest that the pivot was coming.

And it did!

Hubbard was on the field for just 20.4% of Carolina’s offensive snaps in the upset win over the Packers, netting five touches to 27 for Dowdle.

At best, you’re holding a handcuff on a run-centric offense, but are you really holding a player for their contingent value only on an offense like this?

Long-term, no. For another week or two, you can justify it with bye weeks still very much in play. But if things don’t change in a meaningful way, this is exactly the type of profile that you cut as December approaches in an effort to craft an optimal lineup for your postseason.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs NYG)

D’Andre Swift missed last week (groin), his first DNP since joining the Bears after some durability concerns to open his career with the Lions.

The hope is that this is nothing that lingers.

He had been able to play through this nagging issue for much of October, but he didn’t practice last week and now has to be watched (Chicago is a month past their bye).

If things look promising, you play him. This offense is hardly a work of art, but Swift has produced 12.8% above expectations this season, the second-best mark of his career. This isn’t a matchup to fear in general, and the versatility in this profile (24 targets and 100 rush attempts across his seven games) makes him a reliable player regardless of the projected script.

Track the injury reports, but I currently have Swift penciled in as my RB2 in spots where I roster him.

David Montgomery | DET (at WAS)

After consecutive games without a single red zone touch, David Montgomery handled two on Sunday against the Vikings and cashed one in for his fifth rushing score of the season.

Detroit certainly made a point to keep him involved as he finished with more carries and targets than Jahmyr Gibbs … and the offense sputtered. Combine the reactionary nature of NFL coaches with the fact that Monty lost a fumble in the third quarter, a turnover that resulted in the Vikings scoring five plays later, and I think you’re on thin ice in considering him a flex this week.

The matchup is favorable, and that’s what you’re standing on. Gibbs is going to be heavily featured more often than not, and I’d expect that to be the case on Sunday, but should Detroit push out to a lead as expected, another 12-ish touch game with scoring upside could be on the way for Montgomery.

I think you’re safe to flex him this week, but I wouldn’t get comfortable with that decision every week.

De’Von Achane | MIA (vs BUF)

The De’Von Achane profile truly is amazing to me, given that this offense struggles to get into scoring position (exactly one red zone touch for their star RB in three of his past four games).

Expected fantasy points tend to highlight players on good offenses thanks to a high count of high-value touches, and that makes sense. That’s where fantasy matchups are won in most situations.

Achane is the exception.

He’s cleared 15.5 expected PPR points in four of his past five and six of his past eight. His value is riding on his ability to earn targets (35 in his past five games), and that appears to be sticky given how Tua Tagovailoa plays the game.

Miami lacks a secondary pass catcher behind Jaylen Waddle, and without real competition for traditional carries, Achane is the rare safe RB on a bad team. In Week 3 against these Bills, his 12 carries yielded 62 yards, and he posted a 27.3% target share.

It would be fun to see what the upside looks like on even an average offense, but I’m not holding my breath on that front in 2023. Even without it, he’s a locked-in fantasy starter with an elevated floor that you can take to the bank.

Derrick Henry | BAL (at MIN)

Over the past three games, Derrick Henry has more 10+ yard carries than instances in which he’s been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.

That’s the version of The King that we’ve loved for the past decade!

Him breaking four runs on Thursday night for chunk gains was good to see, and if he were to finish off either of his runs in scoring position on the first drive (tackled at the one-yard line on a six-yard gain and then hit for a loss on the next play), we are tripping over ourselves to label him as a lock top-10 option the rest of the way.

He’s there.

The return of Jackson not only opens up running lanes but also results in a spike in red zone trips. If you’ve suffered through the ups and downs this season with Henry and managed to remain competitive, I think you’re in a good spot for the stretch run.

I actually like a matchup like this for a player like this: break through the crowded line of scrimmage, and a game-breaking carry is very much in play.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (at NYJ)

Dylan Sampson appeared in fantasy box scores before the bye with five catches in the blowout loss to the Patriots and has now seen 88.5% of his PPR points scored via the reception.

This is an interesting profile in the long term because he appears to have an NFL-level skill as a rookie. But this is Judkins’ backfield until otherwise noted, and there’s not nearly enough food for multiple backs to eat.

If this offense settles on a QB and shows signs of growth during the second half of this season, we can have a discussion over the summer about the viability of Sampson, but we are a long way away from that.

A hampered Judkins would increase the value of Sampson, but he wouldn’t absorb the full role, and this isn’t a great matchup.

He’s a low-end roster stash at best.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (vs DET)

The story of Bill Croskey-Merritt was a fun one this summer, but the narrative has run its course, and now he’s a drain on the upside of your roster.

The seventh-round pick in the 2025 draft has three catches total over his past four games, a stretch that has seen zero of his 51 carries gain even a dozen yards.

With no versatility to speak of and the scoring equity being squeezed out of his profile by way of the Jayden Daniels injury, JCM doesn’t offer nearly enough upside to offset the low floor. He may be the lead for Washington, but he’s not a top-30 option for me this week, ranking among the secondary backs and long-shot receivers.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at WAS)

Relax.

Just about all of the high-end running backs have had a game like what Jahmyr Gibbs put on paper last week, if not multiple.

Gibbs averaged 16.6 carries per game in the five contests before Week 9, and I fully expect we see that volume return this week. We have a 40-game sample of him averaging 5.3 yards per carry, making that volume alone worthy of our confidence.

Add in the unique splash play ability and the efficiency, albeit suppressed usage, in the pass game (29 catches on 31 targets). You’ve got yourself an elite asset that could come in a little lower owned in DFS circles despite a weird main slate (Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs are off of it).

James Cook | BUF (at MIA)

James Cook has cleared 100 rushing yards in five of his past seven games, and the two exceptions can be explained away rather easily.

• Week 5 vs. NE: The best run defense in the league
• Week 6 at ATL: 5.1 yards per carry (Buffalo trailed for 51-of-54 offensive snaps)

With just one reception since September, Cook’s role stands in the way of him joining the top tier at the running back position, but he’s on the next level of producer, and I’m expecting another huge performance on Sunday.

Over his last three games against the Dolphins, Cook has averaged 20.4 points per game and 1.25 points per touch while scoring 46.1% over expectations during that stretch.

I think there are a Big Four at the running back position, and if I’m ranking them for the rest of the season, Cook is my RB5.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (at LAC)

Jaylen Warren was playing with fire last week, barely crossing the goal line on a one-yard dive before getting the ball knocked out. Still, all touchdowns count, and the fact that he’s getting those opportunities (he failed on a fourth-quarter goal-line carry, but Aaron Rodgers went back to him and got him a second score) is valuable.

In his first year as the lead man in this backfield, Warren has cleared 13 PPR points in five of seven games, boasting a versatile skill that allows him to overcome the occasional inefficient spot.

The Chargers rank 28th in yards allowed per carry after contact to the running back position, and given how this Steelers offense is built, that weakness figures to be on display Sunday night.

Warren is a top-15 RB for me this week, and he could flirt with my top 10 as we get further injury news in different situations: lock him in.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs ATL)

Jonathan Taylor has five top-3 finishes at the position.

It’s hard to overstate just how crazy that is in early November.

The only thing crazier would be overreacting to the dud last week in Pittsburgh.

Taylor is touching the ball 20.4 times per game and is more likely to rip off a 10+ yard gain (14.6% of his attempts this season) than he is to be stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage (13.4%).

Even with the poor showing in Week 9, Taylor is on a borderline historic pace and slots as my RB1 in Germany this week in what could be a fun game with Bijan Robinson on the other side.

The late bye (next week) and the loss of a Houston matchup (Week 18) position Taylor to potentially be the most impactful December asset in our game. You’re lucky to have him on your roster: hold on tight and see if you can ride him to a title.

Jordan Mason | MIN (vs BAL)

We thought that the same script in Detroit would work against Jordan Mason, thus making him a tough sell given his role projection as the two-down option in Minnesota.

The analysis was dead wrong, but the final line ultimately rewarded our skepticism.

The Lions didn’t lead for a single offensive snap, yet Jones nearly tripled Mason’s production. Heading into Week 9, I didn’t see a situation in which the Vikes were locked into a tight game and Jones’ point total would dwarf that of the more explosive Mason, but here we are.

I don’t think you can play either one of them.

This projects to be a full-blown committee where one player has upside and the other has versatility. Combined, this would be a top-12 running back. Separately, I’m not touching it, as a low floor presents itself for both players.

Josh Jacobs | GB (vs PHI)

It’s pretty evident that Josh Jacobs is battling a calf injury, but as long as the Packers list him as active, we will do the same.

Emanuel Wilson got work on the first drive of the game and the first touch of the second half for the Packers in a game in which they were trailing, red flags that are mitigated by Jacobs having found the end zone in 15 of his last 16 games.

These “limitations” resulted in 21 touches for Jacobs last weekend against the Panthers. If you want to add Wilson to the end of your roster for insurance, I’ll co-sign, but this feels more like a management situation than anything else.

I fully expect a heavy dose of Jacobs in this spot as the Packers look to rebound from a bad loss to potentially an elite win.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (at LAC)

Outside of the Dublin game, where Warren was a late scratch, Kenneth Gainwell hasn’t cleared seven carries in a game this season. I love the fact that, starting with that contest, he has 20 catches over his past five, but that role alone isn’t nearly enough to justify flex consideration.

He’s earned the trust of Rodgers, and there’s certainly value in that. We just need an injury ahead of him to reap the benefits in the fantasy space.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs ARI)

The Seahawks must feel as though they don’t know what they are going to get from Kenneth Walker III on a carry-to-carry basis, but we, as fantasy managers, are fairly certain of how the week is going to play out.

Seahawk Carries From 10 Yards Out or Closer

• Zach Charbonnet: 13
• Walker: 7
• Sam Darnold: 3
• AJ Barner: 1

That’s a 29.2% carry share in those spots for Walker (49% in all other spots).

Walker has finished three of his past four games with 10-11 carries and hasn’t had more than two targets in a game since Week 1. In theory, you’re considering playing him for the single-play upside, but even that has disappeared (three straight games without a rush attempt picking up more than 16 yards).

I have Walker ranked ahead of Charbonnet this week and most weeks, but that’s more of an anti-Charbonnet stance.

Walker is my RB25 this week.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (vs PIT)

Kimani Vidal is the lead back and projects as such for at least the next month, with news emerging that Omarion Hampton is out through the bye. But the production has been all over the place lately.

• Week 6 at Dolphins: 22.8 points (18.2 expected)
• Week 7 vs. Colts: 7.5 points (13.1 expected)
• Week 8 vs. Vikings: 19.7 points (19.3 expected)
• Week 9 at Titans: 3.0 points (8.9 expected)

Is he good?

I’m on the fence, but I’m not sure it matters. The volume on the ground is locked in, and with him running 23.5 routes per game over the past month, there are enough paths to production for me to feel good about against a defense that has had plenty of ups and downs.

Vidal has picked up over 76% of his rushing yards after contact in two of the past three games, something that hints at a style of running that has a way of getting fantasy managers to the finish line more often than not.

Kyle Monangai | CHI (vs NYG)

D’Andre Swift missed last week with a groin injury, and Roschon Johnson was also sidelined, putting Kyle Monangai in a position to build on an expanding role and really live up to the greatness that was bestowed upon him at birth by way of his first name.

Yeah, I’d say he capitalized.

He obviously benefited from the Cincinnati matchup, but 26 carries, 22 routes, and eight red zone touches later, the man has worked himself into the weekly plan.

This situation gets complicated should Swift return (4.6 yards per carry this season with a TD in each of his past four games), but it’s clear that Ben Johnson has his finger on the pulse of this backfield, and that has me thinking that both could produce lineup-worthy numbers.

If both play, I’ll defer to the veteran because of how well he was running. That said, Monangai would still crack my top 30 in that world, and should he walk back into the RB1 role, he’d flirt with my top 15 at the position against a defense that has allowed 25+ PPR points to an RB four times this season.

Kyren Williams | LAR (at SF)

Kyren Williams has cleared 16 PPR points in three of his past four games and is running hard.

Last season, 62% of his carries saw him gaining more yards after contact than the league average, a nice mark that has spiked to 68.2% through nine weeks this season.

Blake Corum has impressed when given the opportunity, though it seems clear that Sean McVay doesn’t intend to make this a committee situation. Williams has had at least 19 touches in five games this season, one of which was the first meeting with the 49ers (22 touches for 131 yards and two TDs).

I don’t expect a repeat of that success, but with Stafford dicing up defenses, Williams figures to have running lanes available to him against a banged-up San Francisco unit.

Nick Chubb | HOU (vs JAX)

Nick Chubb is filling the battering ram role in an offense that isn’t built to physically dominate anyone.

This isn’t going to work.

The veteran running back is more than a month removed from his last 10-yard gain and is pretty clearly behind Woody Marks in terms of big-play ability.

Over the past two weeks, Marks has earned seven targets on 34 routes while Chubb has two looks on 20 routes. The touches may be split, but the rookie clearly holds more of a fantasy viable role, even if I’m not excited about playing either behind this struggling offensive line.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (vs BUF)

A first-half ankle injury resulted in Ollie Gordon departing and never returning during the blowout loss at the hands of the Ravens.

He wasn’t heavily involved prior, but the Dolphins are making a point of getting the rookie on the field in the early script. I’m intrigued by him, but not in a standalone value sense.

As Miami plays out the string of this season, perhaps we can convince them to extend Gordon’s role?

I’m not ruling it out, but I do need to see it before penciling him into my starting lineup. At the very least, he’s the clear-cut handcuff to De’Von Achane, a role that will likely be his through next season as well during the RB1’s final year of his rookie deal.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (at NYJ)

Judkins has been the surprise bellcow of the season, and that seems likely to stick as long as he can shake off the shoulder injury that forced him to exit early in Week 8 before the bye.

The efficiency has been lacking after a hot start to his career (last three games: 46 carries for 139 yards, and that included a 46-yarder), and that’s a pain, but it’s not actionable. This offense isn’t going to put their skill position players in a spot to thrive, but the volume they are clearly comfortable in giving him is enough to keep him in starting lineups.

The Jets have worn down against some volume backs this season (James Cook, Javonte Williams, and Chase Edmonds all cleared 25 PPR points against them). While I’m not projecting a career day from Judkins, the rookie is a reasonably comfortable start in all formats.

Rachaad White | TB (vs NE)

Rachaad White is nothing if not consistent.

The role naturally depends on the status of Bucky Irving, but White is the same player whether he gets seven or 17 carries, a 25% snap share or 75%.

This season, 27.3% of his touches have come in the pass game, and that can be a cheat code in PPR formats when his role is expanded. As good as that side of things is, the rushing numbers are bad.

Rushing Rankings Since 2022 (Minimum 500 Carries)

• 5+ yard gain rate: 27th of 30
• Yards per carry after contact: 28th
• 10+ yard gain rate: 29th of 30
• PFSN Elusive Rating: 29th of 30

The skill set is consistent, but, like following a recipe, results will vary.

White hasn’t been a top-25 RB in either of his past two games, struggles that came on the heels of back-to-back top-10 performances.

I’m comfortable with him assuming the lead role, being slotted as an RB2 in this matchup: the Patriots are as good as it gets against the run, but taking away a weakness isn’t exactly a big deal for me.

You can pencil him in for 10-12 carries and 4-6 targets, a role that is enough for me to hold my nose and click into my lineup.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at TB)

The toe injury resulted in Rhamondre Stevenson missing practice every day last week, and he never seemed close to returning to play.

The running game didn’t exactly thrive in his absence (33 carries for 110 yards), but New England did commit to TreVeyon Henderson for the first time this season, and that could prove to be something they explore as they continue to overachieve.

Given the practice habits of last week, I’m not labeling Stevenson as a viable option this week. I’ll change that train of thought if we get reports to the contrary, but this coaching staff has made it clear that they value what he brings to the table, and with a 7-2 record, why force him back?

Henderson is a viable RB2 in my current rankings, considering that his savvy in the pass game can enable him to score 12-15 points against a defense like the Bucs, which is as good as any in the sport at clogging the middle.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (vs NO)

“We cannot ignore the fact that Rico has been exceptional … love the tempo and violence that he’s running with.”

That was Dava Canales ahead of Week 9, and he put his words into action.

Rico Dowdle fueled the upset win in Lambeau with 130 yards and two scores on 25 carries, playing 74.1% of the snaps while Chuba Hubbard (20.4% snap share with five touches) was relegated to backup duties.

With an outright win as nearly a two-touchdown underdog, it seems more likely that Canales leans even more into this bellcow structure than it works back towards a committee.

Dowdle has had at least 17 carries in four of his past five games, and in those contests, he’s racked up 6.3 yards per carry. Extending that level of efficiency isn’t wise, but if he’s blending even average per-carry numbers with high-end volume, he’s a lineup lock that could easily finish as a top 12 producer at the position.

In five of their past seven games, the Saints have allowed a single RB to clear 17 PPR points. Dowdle is very much in position to extend that run, and now he knows that he can’t double-hip thrust on a touchdown celebration.

Knowledge is power.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (at GB)

A splash play?

Multiple scores?

Who is this, and what has he done with the disappointing version of Saquon Barkley that I had come to terms with?

Philly’s lead back decimated the Giants prior to the bye, and it only seemed like a matter of time: players this talented with this skill set can only be contained for so long.

But is he back?

Well, it depends on what “back” means to you.

Last season was historic for a reason: stretches like that don’t happen often. So if you’re asking me if he is back to that form, my answer is going to be no.

And it would be “no” if he posted an identical stat line this week as he did in Week 8. That said, the advanced profile from the breakout looks just as good, if not better, than the raw stat line, and that is why I’m ranking Barkley as a top-5 option at the position this week, even in a difficult matchup on Monday night.

During the first seven weeks of this season, 57.5% of Barkley’s carries saw him gain more yards after contact than the league RB average. That was down from 64.3% a season ago and is a bit of a chicken-and-egg metric.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

If the offensive line blocks better, the running back can get running downhill and pick up more YAC. But not every play will be blocked well, and the ability to excel in those spots is predictive of future success.

That’s why I like this stat. The 65-yard touchdown was an untouched run, and that can skew stats for an entire season in terms of blocking numbers, and the 0 YAC makes that a negative play in the after-contact stats.

By making it a rate stat, we get a zero or a one for every attempt: no one carry is weighed more than any other, thus making it a little more predictive in my eyes.

The Week 8 rate of Barkley was 71.4%.

This is a fresh Eagles offense, and that’s something that we’ve seen thrive in the past. The Packers haven’t played many power run games over the past month-plus, so I’m not overemphasizing their season-long stats: they are impressive, but not overly predictive in this specific situation.

I’d be shocked if Barkley scored multiple times in this game, but I’d be just as surprised if he finishes the week outside the top 15.

You can disagree with my optimism if you want to, but moving him down the ranks a touch isn’t making an actionable difference: you’re still playing him.

Sean Tucker | TB (vs NE)

Despite missed time from Bucky Irving and inefficiencies in the two-down sense from Rachaad White, Sean Tucker has had one game with more than six touches this season and is pretty firmly an afterthought for this coaching staff.

You can reasonably hold until we get proof that Irving is close to full strength, but you don’t need to. There isn’t a clean path to Tucker hitting your lineup, and at this point in the season, that means he’s on the chopping block should depth issues arise.

This offense is dealing with all sorts of injuries, and that opens up opportunities, but I’d rather throw darts at the pass game than pray for work on the ground.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at HOU)

Volume is valuable, but it doesn’t always carry with it tremendous upside.

Travis Etienne had 22 carries and caught all five targets against the Raiders, usage that is nearly impossible to avoid.

I was underwhelmed by the performance (84 rush yards) and discouraged by the Bhayshul Tuten touchdown, but the workload isn’t going anywhere, and that locks him into your lineup, whether you like it or not.

Sunday was his fourth game with at least 16 carries, one of which came in Week 3 against these Texans (56 yards and a touchdown). He also has six games with at least three targets, and that creates a valuable 10-point floor.

That said, I could not be less interested in DFS formats. No running back has posted a 20-point game against the Texans this season, and in four of the past six games, the opposing team didn’t see an RB score 12 PPR points.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (at TB)

I really hope we didn’t miss our chance.

Rhamondre Stevenson missed last week with a toe injury and opened the door for TreVeyon Henderson to play 75% of the snaps. He got 18 touches against a Falcons defense that coughed up 34 points, at home, to the Dolphins the week prior.

With that information alone, we’d expect a peak Rico Dowdle-type of game where the coaching staff can’t ignore the potential.

We didn’t get it.

He was fortunate to finish the week as RB15, benefiting from six targets. That’s, of course, part of the math in loving his profile, but 3.9 yards per carry without a single one of the attempts gaining more than eight yards?

Week 9 Participation

• Henderson: 75% snaps, 29 routes, 3 red zone touches (18 total)
• Terrell Jennings: 25% snaps, 4 routes, 3 red zone touches (12 total)
  • Consecutive red-zone carries in Q2 (result: 3-yard TD)

Should Stevenson miss another game, I’m dialing back my expectations. I thought he had RB1 upside if given the lead opportunity, but that’s not the case in this matchup and might not be the case anyway.

The Bucs are stingy between the tackles, but a couple of bailout targets, and Henderson ends up this week right where he was last week.

Trey Benson | ARI (at SEA)

Trey Benson (arthroscopic surgery on his meniscus) is eligible to return from injured reserve this week and, should he trend in that direction (initial timetable: 4-6 weeks), he profiles as the leader of this backfield.

These teams played back in Week 4, and Arizona ran 17 times for 89 yards, but Kyler Murray was responsible for 41 of those yards on five attempts. Arizona entered with a clear game plan (Murray: 41 pass attempts, six sacks, and five rush attempts), and it largely worked with Emari Demercado tying the game with a TD reception before the Seahawks walked it off with a 52-yard FG.

Benson last played in Weeks 3-4, and he was one of seven backs with at least four targets and 35 rushing yards in both of those weeks. The others:

• Jonathan Taylor
• Saquon Barkley
• Christian McCaffrey
• Bijan Robinson
• Breece Hall
• Omarion Hampton

I don’t love this matchup, and there is certainly an injury risk to consider should Benson make his return. But given the lack of depth at the position league-wide, if he plays for Arizona, I think he will play for you.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at IND)

We are nearing the point of the season where a player like Tyler Allgeier becomes expendable.

The idea of a handcuff like this is an injury happening ahead of him, and as the season progresses, his utility naturally declines.

I’m not there yet, but at some point, this bet against Bijan Robinson won’t be worth the roster spot. This isn’t a week where you’re likely to be gutted by byes, and hopefully, injuries aren’t too impactful on your roster.

If that’s the case, you have no reason to move on. But the second you find yourself backed into a corner, cutting ties from a player in Allgeier who has 10 total carries during this three-game losing streak is within the range of acceptable moves.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at CHI)

We thought that Tyrone Tracy was going to fill a role similar to Cam Skattebo’s and thus provide us with low-end RB2 numbers, thanks to his versatility and a lack of surrounding talent.

Week 9 Usage

• Devin Singletary: 55.4% snaps, 15 routes, 10 touches
  • Played all 6 red zone snaps (Tracy: 0)
• Tracy: 44.6% snaps, 19 routes, 8 touches

Six of New York’s first eight rushing attempts went to Singletary, a sign that the usage was planned and not a result of how the game was unfolding.

In Los Angeles, following the Omarion Hampton injury, the Chargers felt conviction to what they had behind him and locked in Kimani Vidal as their new bellcow. That’s what we hoped would happen in this situation, but the G-Men are clearly indifferent as to which RB carries the mail, and that makes both parties unusable for us.

My hope is that, in this matchup against the fourth-worst pre-contact rushing defense in the NFL, we get some separation that provides clarity for the remainder of the season.

That’s probably wishful thinking on my part.

You’re holding whichever side of this backfield you have, but not considering playing either unless you are truly in a desperate spot.

Woody Marks | HOU (vs JAX)

I think you can stop using brain power on the Houston backfield at this point.

I still prefer Marks over Chubb, but it’s become clear that the Texans aren’t looking for a bellcow, and, behind a below-average offense, that robs them of having an RB that we can play consistently.

Marks has one game this season with at least a dozen carries and was on the wrong side of an 11-10 split last week against the Broncos. The lone saving grace is the fact that he’s earned at least three targets in three straight, but again, you’re grasping at straws if you’re playing either Marks or Chubb against the fifth-best rush defense by success rate through nine weeks.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs ARI)

I really don’t know the purpose of Zach Charbonnet in this offense.

In theory, I do. He’s the fall-forward guy to Kenneth Walker’s sporadic style, but if “fall- forward-guy” is failing to gain yardage on 28.7% of his carries, the second-worst rate among 43 qualifiers, at what point do you just commit to the big-play threat on a full-time basis?

This feels like that weird transition period in baseball, where the league gradually shifted from bunting runners over to encouraging every hitter to swing from their heels. Or during the early years of the Steph Curry revolution in the NBA, where not everyone was on board with the math of three-pointers.

If Walker carries come with the upside of flipping the field and the alternative is getting stuck for little to no gain, what’s the harm?

We can only hope that this train of thought dawns on the Seattle coaching staff at some point.

For the record, I don’t think it will. Assuming it doesn’t, Charbonnet is still unusable. He has more than 12 carries once this season (Week 2), and without a rush of more than 15 yards this season, you’re chasing a touchdown to bail you out.

That’s not how I like to play the game. Jordan Mason is in a similar spot, but he’s the back in Minnesota that I believe has more juice. That’s not the case in Seattle, and that’s why Charbonnet is rarely going to reside in my top 30 at the position.

He’s RB33 as things stand right now for me in Week 10.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (at GB)

Ahead of Week 8, we got news that A.J. Brown was unlikely to be traded, in addition to an update on his hamstring injury, which had cost him the game before the bye.

To me, that sounds like a playoff team that views Brown as a key cog in their desire to repeat, and that’s obviously reassuring given the social antics of their WR1 over the past month.

He missed every practice that week, and even with that being the case, we got reports prior to kickoff that the “hope” was that Brown would be active for this game.

We’ve seen these physical, big-play receivers do damage against the Pack (George Pickens got them for 33.4 PPR points in Week 4 and Ja’Marr Chase 25.1 in Week 6), making this one of those “if he plays, you play him” spots.

Alec Pierce | IND (vs ATL)

Alec Pierce doesn’t own the most stable of skill sets, but he has cleared 65 receiving yards in five of his past six games and is fresh off a career-high 13 targets in Pittsburgh.

Part of that was game script, but the target rate has made significant growth for a second consecutive season, and that opens up a world of possibilities for one of the better big-play makers in the league.

Yes, the fact that 60% of his looks this season come 15+ yards down the field naturally brings with it a low floor. And yes, Atlanta boasting the second-highest blitz rate in the league makes those sorts of routes less valuable.

That said, it only takes one.

This season, Pierce is averaging 24.1 yards per blitzed reception.

Pierce is my highest-ranked receivers who rely heavily on the deep ball, and that’s typically going to land him in the WR30-35 range. He’s a fantasy matchup play for me: if you need upside from your flex, I’d go this way. If not, I wouldn’t.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at WAS)

Four straight games with 9+ targets is great to see, and while he’s only scored once in those games, he did have two end zone targets and a red zone completion while in that slot that nearly ended in six points.

You were fortunate to run hot on the scoring front early in the season, and now you’re seeing the flip side of that coin.

It happens. Touchdowns come and go, but volume lasts forever.

St. Brown is a threat to lead the position in opportunities every week that he takes the field. It’s possible that he comes in underowned in the DFS streets this week due to the number of viable pieces around him and some game script concerns: if that’s the case, you can bet you’ll find me heavily invested in Detroit’s WR1.

Brandon Aiyuk | SF (vs LAR)

The 49ers were hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023, but that now sounds like a pipe dream with his status being labeled as “not close” in the middle of last month.

By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.

In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.

This injury was priced into Aiyuk’s cost at your draft, so there’s no point in trying to trade for him now. But what if his manager starts slow? What if panic mode sets in before we have a definitive return date?

I’m making a mental note of who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up. We are nearing the point in the process where a low-ball offer could be mutually beneficial, so keep your head on a swivel.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at HOU)

Brian Thomas failed to complete a splash play early last week. In a situation where high-upside targets are difficult to come by, the loss of an opportunity can be paralyzing.

An ankle injury resulted in an early exit for BTJ from the win over the Raiders, putting further into question his ability to produce remotely viable numbers the rest of the way.

For the season, Thomas has a 50% catch rate and hasn’t had a red zone touch since Week 1. The profile is lacking substance, and if not for the success experienced during his rookie season, we probably would have moved on from Jacksonville’s talented WR1 by now.

I’m not saying that’s the right move. Travis Hunter is out for at least another three weeks, and that puts a high-end talent in position to see double-digit looks if healthy.

But be careful in assuming that some sort of breakout is coming.

This offense is flawed at various levels, and that’s unlikely to change moving forward. Thomas’s health needs to be tracked, but even if he’s a full go, this is the third-best deep ball defense in the league (9.4 YPA, NFL average: 11.7).

Chris Godwin | TB (vs NE)

There are times to be proactive and times to be reactive.

Given that this fibula injury continues to be an issue, I believe we have no choice but to be the latter when it comes to Chris Godwin.

With 52 yards on 14 targets this season, we really don’t know what to expect when he’s on the field. Mayfield is more than capable of providing him with opportunities, but if his body isn’t holding up, we can’t justify rolling the dice.

Might Godwin return to form in December as the Bucs look to position themselves in terms of seeding? It could happen, and if it does, I’ll be all-in on him as a starter. Tampa Bay has yet to face the Panthers and has late-season games against the Cardinals and Dolphins in addition to those favorable spots.

This is a pretty clear wait-and-see situation. You have nothing to gain by trying to be early to the party: let Godwin show you he is healthy, and then act, not the other way around.

Chris Olave | NO (at CAR)

Chris Olave’s calling card has been elite volume this season; it’s really that simple.

The New Orleans offense has been bogged down for much of the season, but their willingness to funnel volume to their alpha WR1 has allowed him to stay afloat for our purposes.

But I’m worried.

Or, at least, I was. Before Tuesday.

Rashid Shaheed had posted better target-per-route numbers in both games in which Tyler Shough has appeared, and that change under center is here to stay, but he’s now in Seattle.

This has been a concentrated offense all season long, and that scheme is here to stay, but now, one of those target magnets is out of the mix.

Olave was a flex for me prior to the Shaheed deal: he’s now sitting at WR16 for this weekend.

Christian Kirk | HOU (vs JAX)

Christian Kirk is filling the slot on over 68% of his routes this season, something we assumed would be the case, but it hasn’t mattered.

Sure, he’s earned eight targets in two of his four games (both of the losses), but 5.6 yards per target this season is a tough sell when you have a profile that lacks a single red zone or end zone target.

What Kirk has put forth when on the field this season doesn’t demand he be rostered. That’s not to say you cut him for any warm body; he’s still on the field for the majority of Houston snaps, and this passing game needs some threat to move the chains next to Nico Collins.

I’m holding out hope that he can use these two favorable matchups (Tennessee next week) to carve out more of a niche that sees him scoring in double figures on a weekly basis for the stretch run (home games against the Cardinals and Raiders in Weeks 15-16 have my attention).

Christian Watson | GB (vs PHI)

Well, we are two games into the Christian Watson experience this season, and I think we have a good idea of what we have.

He’s posted a sub-17% target share in each of those contests and has a 23.1-yard aDOT across the eight targets he’s earned.

That’s a small sample for 2022, but we know that, when healthy, this is what Watson is. The Matthew Stafford injury opens up an opportunity, but as Jordan Love continues to mature, I become less confident in a player like this.

Think about Buffalo, another strong team that largely operates with a democratic target approach. When was the last time you felt good about “insert deep threat” on a weekly basis?

They’ve made the effort, but it hasn’t panned out. Watson hauled in a 51-yard bomb last week against the Panthers as Love identified single coverage and took his shot, but for every one of those, there’s a near triple coverage situation that results in a pick, an exact situation we saw over the weekend.

It appears that Love wants to keep defenses honest with at least the threat of the long pass, and Watson is positioned well to be the WR running under those attempts. That makes the burner, for as long as he’s healthy, a reasonable flex dart throw in times of need, but not someone that you should be holding out hope for in terms of a consistent producer.

Only the Broncos have allowed a lower percentage of deep targets to be completed this season than the Eagles (34.4%, league average: 43.9%), and that means I’m waiting for another week to tempt fate with this volatile profile.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (vs ARI)

A lower-body injury kept Cooper Kupp out of Sunday night’s beatdown of the Commanders, and Tory Horton took advantage with a pair of scores.

It’ll hurt because of the name value, but there’s no numerical reason to be holding onto Kupp at this point. The one-time star has no more than two receptions in the majority of his games this season and has scored just a single touchdown.

Sam Darnold has played as well as you could possibly ask, and Kupp hasn’t been worth anything to us (zero top 20 finishes).

Darius Slayton | NYG (at CHI)

Not all steps forward carry with them strong production.

Darius Slayton caught five passes for 62 yards last week against the Niners, production that may not initially catch your eye, but upon further review, I’m a bit interested.

The catch count was the result of increased efficiency, which was made possible thanks to an aDOT that was his lowest since Jaxson Dart took over. It wasn’t low, but lower (13.3 after three straight games north of 14.5).

Given that the Giants lack healthy playmakers, a shallower route tree shouldn’t be surprising, and it opens up a more enticing profile.

Include the fact that Slayton saw two end zone targets in the loss after having seen a total of one prior, and you’ve got yourself a recipe for a receiver in the flex mix. The slight tweak in role gives us some stability, but it doesn’t remove the splash plays from his profile.

Wan’Dale Robinson remains the most reliable on this roster, but both are hovering around my top 30 at the position, and that means both can be played if you’re in need.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (at IND)

The idea of a secondary pass catcher next to Drake London’s tracks, but with only two catches on 70 routes over the past two weeks, suggests a lack of involvement that simply doesn’t happen to a player worthy of our interest.

Darnell Mooney is filling a field-stretching role, and it seems to be more of a decoy mold than anything else. His 15.7-yard aDOT suggests to me that Atlanta is running him in straight lines and hoping that the occasional shot to him opens up everything else.

I’m not sure this is a great plan, but I know it doesn’t do anything for us.

Mooney played every offensive snap last week, and it resulted in next to nothing for us. I’m giving him at least one more week, as this is a game where the expectation is for them to be playing from behind. But his spot at the end of rosters should not be viewed as safe.

Davante Adams | LAR (at SF)

Davante Adams’ target equity increases when Puka Nacua is in and out of the lineup, but the types of targets don’t really change.

He’s racked up 100+ air yards in six of his past seven games and has seen multiple end zone looks in three straight. His 33rd birthday is approaching, but nothing in his profile suggests that Father Time is looming.

Adams led the Rams in receiving yards (88) in the first meeting with these Cardinals, and getting him to 15-ish PPR points isn’t asking for much. Assuming that Nacua is a full go, I’ll have two Rams comfortable inside of my top 15 at the position. If that’s not the case, Adams could push as high as WR6 in my Week 10 rankings.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (at MIN)

The veteran receiver carries an impressive resume, and with Jackson back in a big way, you might feel the impulse to go this direction as a back-of-roster filler that can be used to chase a touchdown if pressed into such a need.

I think you can do better.

Hopkins hasn’t run 20 routes in a game this season and has been twice as likely to check in under 10 as over 15. I’m not against the idea of Todd Monken having specific packages for the future Hall of Famer, but if you’re playing him banking on a target or two paying off, your risk analysis math is off.

I’d rather take my chances with a sporadic tight end that is at least on the field routinely than to go this route.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (vs DET)

So far this season, Deebo Samuel has run 62 routes with Marcus Mariota under center, earning 15 targets in the process (11 catches for 94 yards).

The volume is good to see, especially if Terry McLaurin continues to be hampered by this quad injury, and the 49ers have shifted more backfield usage onto their offensive weapon when the backup is under center.

That assures us of nothing, but if Washington is going to be the least bit competitive in this game, they will need to feature Samuel in a significant way.

I suspect we get a high dropback game from Mariota, and with the target rate that we’ve seen from Samuel, I’m projecting him for 5-6 catches for 50-60 yards with a few rushing attempts and the potential to break a big play if things connect just right.

I think you can get by with Samuel as your flex this week. The production likely won’t jump off the page at you, but I think his role is stable enough, and this offense is needy enough to back him into a viable week in all formats.

DeMario Douglas | NE (at TB)

I’m sorry if you missed DeMario Douglas’ 20 PPR points last week, but chasing that production is dangerous.

We are looking at a receiver who stands 5’8″ and averages under 11 yards per catch for his career, but somehow has a 40+ yard reception in consecutive games.

I’m here for the idea that the Drake Maye tide can raise all boats, but trading volume for chunk plays doesn’t seem like the best option in this instance.

Maybe the Kayshon Boutte injury will open up some usage (the per-route numbers are encouraging). If not, Douglas is a part-time player experiencing an unsustainable run of success.

For the season, he’s been on the field for 29.5% of New England’s offensive snaps, and I don’t care how good you believe Maye to be: a sub-30% role is far more risk than I’m willing to plug into my lineup.

For me, he’s Parker Washington, but with a slightly lesser role, which has him ranking outside my top 40 at the position.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (at GB)

I think you have to play either Eagle receiver and take your chances.

Green Bay rarely surrenders production to multiple pass catchers in a game, but they will give up a big WR game every once in a while.

Is it a DeVonta Smith or an AJ Brown week?

Good luck.

They have matching 12.1-yard average depths of target this season, with Smith holding the slight edge (25.5% to 23.5%) in percentage of targets that come deep downfield.

Normally, I’d lean the side of size in a spot like this where I’m chasing the big play, but for every George Pickens/Ja’Marr Chase that has overachieved against the Packers this season, there’s a Deebo Samuel/Rhamondre Stevenson.

Smith has out-targeted Brown in each of their past two games, but his target variance is a bit higher, and that’s why he’s a middling WR2 for me this week, half a dozen spots lower in my positional ranks.

DJ Moore | CHI (vs NYG)

It was kind of a weird week to get the “Let Ben Johnson Cook” narrative going, as a standard offensive attack can do damage against the Bengals, but it was good to see the head coach show us confidence in DJ Moore.

The six targets and 72 receiving yards were nothing special, but how about a 17-yard run and a two-yard touchdown pass?

Not repeatable, but not things you trust just anyone to do.

Better days are ahead for Rome Odunze, and a true Colston Loveland breakout would make it tough for Moore to have access to much of a ceiling. But if the rookie tight end is more average than extraordinary, I still think there’s a path for Moore to offer a high-floor profile that lands him as a strong flex more often than not.

The Giants have dialed back their defensive aggression of late (19.2% blitz rate since Week 5 after posting a 31.8% rate in September), and that allows a refined route runner like Moore to find gaps in coverage.

He’s a good bet to reach double-figure PPR points without a touchdown, and his scoring equity is trending in the right direction if the Bears use last week as a launching pad.

DK Metcalf | PIT (at LAC)

After years of relying on deep targets, we were ready for DK Metcalf’s aDOT to be dialed back a bit, but this is too much.

The alpha WR1 saw a total of 10 air yards during Sunday’s upset win over the Colts. His aDOT for the season is down 19.6% from last season, with just 17% of his looks coming 15+ yards downfield (2021: 43.5%).

Metcalf has been held under 12 expected PPR points. While his raw ability allows him to surpass expectations more often than others, his floor is certainly low for a player who has no real target competition.

He’s a low-end WR2 at best, that is, in my opinion, more likely to bust than to boom in any given week. You can play him if your roster lacks WR depth, but I’d caution against doing it blindly: benching Metcalf isn’t a crazy thought.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (vs PHI)

The calf injury continued to keep Dontayvion Wicks sidelined over the weekend, and given the number of viable threats in this passing game, you’d have to be in an awfully tight spot to consider holding on.

The third-year man hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards in a game this season and has one touchdown to his name over the past calendar year.

I’m not sure we know who the right answer is when it comes to WR1 duties in Green Bay, but we know that Wicks’ hype isn’t in the ring.

Drake London | ATL (at IND)

Drake London outscored every other receiver by 5.7 PPR points last week, and if you flip on the game film, I’m telling you that the performance he put forth Sunday in New England was even more impressive than that.

From sharp routes to high-pointing the ball, he was virtually unstoppable against a defense with a shutdown corner and the ability to make your offense one-dimensional.

London has a quarterback problem, that much we know, but with 10+ targets being funneled his way in four straight, who are we to complain?

His recent run is similar to what Nico Collins has experienced in the past and serves as a nice reminder that he deserves to be considered among the top 10 talents at the position. Only time will tell if Atlanta can find a quarterback who unlocks consistent Tier 1 production from him: he’s a lineup lock every week, and this matchup abroad doesn’t provide me with a moment of pause.

If you roster London, I think you’ll want to delay your morning plans a bit to watch him get your team off to a good start in Germany.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (vs NE)

A hamstring has slowed down the efficiency of Emek Egbuka over his past two games (33.3% catch rate with zero touchdowns), but with the bye week to get right, I think you can feel fine about playing him in this tough matchup.

Some will look at his recent box scores, see 16.1 PPR points across two games, and assume some sort of rookie wall is approaching.

I’m not buying it.

During these “struggles,” he’s earned a 28.4% target share and has just missed on a few chunk plays. Due to all of the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, Egbuka has been tasked with navigating role changes and offensive pivots during his first two months as a pro.

Combine that with defenses now having tape on him, and I think his ability to earn volume at a high level is much more impressive and predictive than the recent underwhelming final lines are concerning.

New England is a strong defense across the board, and Christian Gonzalez looms large, but if they are turned into a one-dimensional unit, I trust the combination of volume and raw talent. It’s very clear that Baker Mayfield is comfortable with this rookie deciding the fate of the drive, and that’s good enough for me.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs CLE)

The hope is that Garrett Wilson (knee) is good to go coming out of the bye. While betting on the passing attack of the Jets isn’t exactly an optimal way to spend a Sunday, he has seen at least eight targets in every game he’s played this season and we have seen a receiver per week get home against the stingy Browns.

In fact, in five of their past seven games, Cleveland has allowed a WR to score at least 16.5 PPR points, production that Wilson managers would take in a heartbeat. If there’s a New York receiver that is going to flirt with that total, there’s no debate as to who it’ll be and even if Wilson comes up just shy of that number, he’ll prove worthy of starting.

I’ve got him ranked just ahead of Deebo Samuel (vs. DET) and behind Jaylen Waddle (vs. BUF) if we are stacking up talented receivers with iffy QB situations against one another.

Jakobi Meyers | JAC (at HOU)

In all of our praising of Brock Bowers, can we pour one out for those of us with stock tied up in Jakobi Meyers?

Not so fast!

That was my initial impression of his stock following the massive performance from the Raider TE, but on Tuesday, he was dealt to a Jacksonville team that has Travis Hunter on IR for at least the next three weeks and is trying to make a run after the Steelers made the Colts bleed their own blood last week.

No matter what you think about Trevor Lawrence, this is a situational upgrade for Meyers.

He’ll have to outperform Parker Washington, but I think he will win that battle over time. The banged-up nature of this WR room opens up more targets than I had him projected for with the Raiders, and that gives him the potential to be a top 30 receiver moving forward.

Personally, I’m slow-playing this. I’ve got him ranked ahead of Washington, but outside of my top 30 this week as he gets worked up to speed. The Jags have a two-week stretch coming up, where they face the Cardinals and Titans in consecutive weeks. They also draw the Jets in Week 15, which is typically the first round of the playoffs in most leagues.

Jalen Coker | CAR (vs NO)

Jalen Coker has essentially been splitting the WR2 duties in this offense with Xavier Legette, and that removes all interest from his profile.

He was on the field for two-thirds of Panther snaps last week against the Packers, and that strong rate landed him one single target.

If this team can stay competitive, they are running the ball at a high rate; if not, Young’s passing volume is sporadic.

There’s not really a script that works into Coker’s favor given the structure of this offense, and that means he’s nothing more than a waiver wire option in year-long leagues, a DFS punt among punts at best.

Jameson Williams | DET (at WAS)

The sprawling 37-yard touchdown reminded us of the elite athletic profile that Jameson Williams has access to, fueling his third 15+ point performance of the season.

You were rewarded if you rolled the dice last week, but I still have my concerns. On one hand, I’m encouraged by the shortening of his aDOT (9.2 last week, 15.0 for the season). But on the other hand, I’m worried about the reactionary nature of NFL teams.

Williams has four games with a single-digit aDOT this season, and Detroit has dropped three of them. I’m not ready to say that the gravity that comes from him running vertically opens up everything else, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Lions are reading a stat like that in that fashion.

At the end of the day, we are talking about a high-pedigree player who is attached to one of the five best offenses in the league. You could do worse, but I had dreams of Williams being a locked-in WR2 at this point, and he simply isn’t.

Jauan Jennings | SF (vs LAR)

Among all 49ers not named McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings was the team leader in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and caught the only touchdown pass.

The problem is two-fold. First, despite checking all those boxes, he came up short of 15 PPR points.

Second, such a role is far from a lock moving forward. George Kittle caught all of his targets and figures to be more involved as this season wears on, and the complementary receivers are eventually going to return.

Oh, and McCaffrey is always going to soak up targets in bulk, lowering the floor in a major way for all other pieces.

The touchdown was a work of art last week, a quick/accurate read to beat press coverage and a perfectly timed dive for the pylon to score on the third-down play. Jennings can play, I’m just not sold that the quantity or quality of targets is there in a big way as we approach the winter months.

If we are to assume that he remains the clear WR1 in this offense for another week, you can get away with flexing him. If that’s the short-term plan, I’d want to ensure I build up my depth for the stretch run: I doubt he’ll be a player you can rely on to start for the remainder of the season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs ARI)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has cleared 20 PPR points in four straight games and has more games with a target share north of 37% than not this season.

How good is Lamb?

What about Malik Nabers?

Or maybe Adams?

Those are all receivers last season who averaged under 18.3 points per game, a number that currently sits as JSN’s second-worst output of this season. I’m running out of ways to amplify what he is doing weekly, and that makes me nervous as we enter Week 10.

Tune in next week for the weekly segment of “how will Kyle fall over himself to praise Smith-Njigba?”.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (vs JAX)

The rookie WR experiment in Houston is looking like a long-term play without direction, more than an instant impact maneuver for a team that thought it was a lock to be playing in the postseason.

Jayden Higgins has caught more than one pass in just two of his past seven games and is to be treated as a direct replacement for Nico Collins at this point.

If Collins were to sit for any reason, Higgins moves to the very low end of interesting, but without that, he’s a complete zero who does not need to be rostered.

If you need immediate roster help, Higgins is an easy cut to create the opening.

Jayden Reed | GB (vs PHI)

Jayden Reed underwent foot and clavicle surgeries in the middle of September, and November has long been believed to be the target return month.

Green Bay’s presumed WR1 scored in Week 1 and was injured on a play in Week 2 that was inches from being a score. It’s only a six-target sample, so do with it what you will, but three came 15+ yards downfield (sub 30% rate in each of his first two seasons).

My thought is that the team was aware of what Tucker Kraft could do in the short receiving game, and the speed of Matthew Golden was anything but a secret, thus opening up Reed to expand his route tree a bit. That’s how he can become a weekly fantasy asset, but he needs to prove himself healthy before anything.

The Packers play the Bears twice in December, matchups that give Reed the potential to crack my top 24 in those impact weeks, should his usage trend in the direction we saw out of the gates.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs BUF)

The efficiency of Jaylen Waddle is eerily similar now to what it was with Tyreek Hill on the field this season.

• Hill on the field: +22.6% over fantasy expectation, 3.0 fantasy points per catch, 16.8% slot rate
• Hill off the field: +20.8% over fantasy expectation, 3.0 fantasy points per catch, 19.5% slot rate

That means the WR1 role looks good on him, and the steadying of the numbers gets even more encouraging when you juxtapose it with the more detailed numbers.

With Hill off the field, Waddle’s aDOT has spiked from 8.9 yards to 13.5, and his target percentage has increased from 18% to 25.4%.

He had the one dud in Cleveland, but he’s otherwise been rock solid since the Hill injury, and I think you can expect more of the same in this spot with Miami likely playing from behind. Back in Week 3, Waddle scored 14.9 PPR points against the Bills, a game that Hill vacuumed in 10 targets.

There are only two players in this offense that we can even remotely trust, but both have proven capable of producing consistently despite the limitations of this offense.

Jaylin Noel | HOU (vs JAX)

With Nico Collins and Christian Kirk back on the field, Jaylin Noel was not.

At least not nearly enough to matter.

Noel ran six routes in the loss to the Broncos, fifth among Houston receivers and 14 fewer than fellow rookie Jayden Higgins.

This line struggles to block, and as a result, it is difficult for the quarterback to work through multiple reads. I’d rather not bet on Kirk if I can help it, never mind a name like Noel that is well behind him on the depth chart.

Should an injury occur in the starting lineup, we can break down new roles, but that’s not where we stand right now, and there’s not nearly enough contingent value to justify waiting.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at NYJ)

I think we are at the point where I need to see multiple productive games in a row from Jeudy before even considering him as a low-end flex.

Christian Gonzalez shadowed him and shut him down (two targets) in Week 8 before the bye. While that is rock bottom, this is a receiver who didn’t have a 20-yard catch in October, hasn’t caught more than five passes in a game this season, and is coming up on his 11-month anniversary of the last time he found the end zone.

Jeudy is a low-ceiling, low-floor player these days, and I’m not sure that changes at any point for the remainder of this season. A quarterback change could alter some of the math, but we have enough data points to bench him with confidence until further notice. Remember, this team viewed this version of their offense as their optimal option.

Jordan Addison | MIN (vs BAL)

In his first action with McCarthy, Jordan Addison’s usage was … something.

He cleared 100 air yards on his four targets. That’s a rare occurrence, and with every one of those looks coming at least 17 yards downfield, there is certainly some risk of him being pigeonholed in a way that rendered Jameson Williams and Alec Pierce into awfully volatile roles earlier this season.

That’s not a terrible thing, but I don’t think that’s optimal for Addison managers, as the hope was he’d develop into a reliable weekly flex option.

It’s one game, a sample of four targets and 29 routes. That’s not nearly enough to make any sweeping claims, but it’s the only data point we have to go on right now, and it very much has my attention.

McCarthy has been sporadic at best in the three games we’ve seen from him as a pro (two highly productive quarters have elevated his counting numbers). If Addison managers are trying to parlay low-percentage targets with a QB who is all over the place, that’s not a bet that has my interest.

We will see. He slots in as a low-end flex in this spot, with the hope being that a high-scoring environment puts him in a good spot to land a big play.

I’m hopeful that we’ll see some route versatility this week, and we can resume assuming that Addison is a strong flex moving forward. But I’m nervous, and I think you should be too if you thought you had a rock-solid option.

Josh Downs | IND (vs ATL)

Josh Downs has quietly scored in three straight games, though last week came in serious comeback mode as the Colts tried to save a game that they gave away to the Steelers.

The concern isn’t with Downs as a player; it’s more about his value in this offense. In a game where Jones cut loose 50 passes and amassed 342 yards through the air, his slot receiver finished with just 57 in a match where Tyler Warren (26 yards) was quiet.

This is very much a “do your job” offense. Pierce stretches the field, Michael Pittman handles the intermediate looks, and Tyler Warren is a queen on the chessboard type that has his hands in everything.

Downs can be to Indianapolis what Keenan Allen is to Los Angeles. We saw the peaks of that role early in the season, but there is a lower floor attached to it ,and that has me labeling him as more of a WR4 with some upside as opposed to a WR3 that is at risk of leaving you out to dry.

The Falcons own the fifth-highest opponent aDOT this season, and that generally doesn’t feed into the Downs role. I’ve got him ranked behind the rising role of Parker Washington and a player in Rashid Shaheed, who is trending in a strong direction when it comes to volume.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (at MIA)

A lower-body injury (ankle/knee) suffered in Week 6 continues to sideline Josh Palmer, and given that he was hardly used in this system prior (no more than two receptions in a contest since Week 1), there’s no reason that you realistically need to track this situation.

The Bills are potent, but they are also awfully concentrated. It’s James Cook on the ground and the Khalil Shakir/Dalton Kincaid duo through the air. If you have one of them, you play them.

If not, you’re not worried about a Bills skill position player cracking your lineup.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs BAL)

Justin Jefferson has now scored in two of three J.J. McCarthy starts and none of the six in which the second-year QB spent rehabbing his ankle.

He’s as good as it gets; it really is that simple. His one-handed 10-yard TD catch on the first drive last week in Detroit was a reminder of that, and as his QB gains professional experience, I expect Jefferson’s star to shine even brighter.

The Vikings close the fantasy season with games against the Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, and Lions, all of whom Jefferson is more than capable of dominating. He was your first-round pick for a reason, and I think it’s very possible that the best is yet to come for #18 this season.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (at TB)

A hamstring injury sidelined Kayshon Boutte during the game, and that sort of injury is the last thing streamers want to see.

Boutte is averaging 18.7 yards per catch this season and has scored on 21.7% of his receptions. Neither of those is sustainable, and as Drake Maye continues to grow, he’s spreading the ball around and making target projections in New England a pain.

I understand that he’s scored four times in his past three healthy games, but I’m comfortable moving on. This Maye system is democratic in nature, and with a soft-tissue injury at play, I worry that we see the version of Boutte we saw before the recent scoring binge (six catches for 89 yards and zero scores over a three-game stretch) moving forward.

There are a dozen players with this basic skill set on your waiver wire. You can find your swing-for-the-fences spot elsewhere.

Keenan Allen | LAC (vs PIT)

Keenan Allen hasn’t seen an end zone or a red-zone target in consecutive games, concerning usage patterns that have yielded his two lowest expected point totals of the season.

In those games, five of his six receptions have come on third down: Is it possible that he’s the WR equivalent of a short-yardage running back?

I’m not there yet, but I do think the rise to prominence of Oronde Gadsden may have changed the play-calling enough to put the veteran receiver at risk, aside from particular situations.

In those two games, his snap share has checked in well under 40%, and if the target competition is extreme, that matters. If I had to pick one of the receivers on this offense that I’m most concerned about the rest of the way, it would be Allen, operating under the idea that the peak version of his role offers less upside than the others in question.

I have him ranked third of the trio this week, and that lands him outside of my top 25 at the position, oddly enough, right next to another former fantasy star that is also playing in this game (DK Metcalf).

Kendrick Bourne | SF (vs LAR)

I’m old enough to remember when Kendrick Bourne had consecutive games with 142 receiving yards, and it seemed like we knew where the targets were going in San Francisco.

He’s earned just eight targets on 75 routes since George Kittle returned, and considering that his playing time is far more likely to decline than improve as the team around him gets healthier, you’re well past the point of relying on Bourne.

Holding onto him for another week or two as reinforcements theoretically return for this team is logical. I wouldn’t mind making the move if you need his roster spot for immediate returns.

Keon Coleman | BUF (at MIA)

Keon Coleman has had one good quarter this season. That means that you’re betting far too much on pedigree and offensive environment if you’re reading this section.

Coleman has yet to develop secondary skills, and while he can still make big plays, defenses in 2025 are primarily built to prevent it.

His longest catch of the season is just 25 yards, and he’s averaging under 10 yards per catch. Coleman needs to show growth before we bank on it, especially in a matchup where the opponent has a track record of slowing his primary skill (one catch on 48 career routes run against the Fins).

Khalil Shakir | BUF (at MIA)

Khalil Shakir is important to the Bills, and that keeps him in our starting lineups, though it’s rarely fun.

He accounted for three of Allen’s six completions on the first drive last weekend in a statement win over the Chiefs, a clear design from the coaching staff to stay on time and ahead of the chains.

That’s great.

But would a shot play every once in a while be the end of the world?

He finished Week 9 with seven catches and under one air yard. That’s hard to do.

The beauty in those short targets is the completion rate, and in a PPR setting, those are the type of “free” points that can win you a week. Shakir is among the best in the NFL in terms of picking up yardage after the catch, and that’s what Buffalo loves about him.

That said, without any receiver really establishing himself as a consistent deep threat, what would be the harm in the occasional double move from this slot machine?

I’m allowed to dream, aren’t I?

I don’t think we get that anytime soon, but his 6-8 highly efficient targets are going to land Shakir as a PPR WR2 more often than not. He caught every pass thrown his way and found the end zone in the Week 3 showdown with these Dolphins, and I think you can pencil in another 12-15 points with relative ease this week.

He’s the only Bills WR that should be rostered at this point.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs PIT)

I don’t love to see a declining slot rate for Ladd McConkey, but as long as he’s earning the 7+ targets a night that he has in each of his past five games, I’m not complaining.

Justin Herbert is really coming into his own, and while I tend to prefer a high slot rate for receivers like this, a high PROE offense with a developing star under center can make any type of target a highly valuable one.

The volume has been there recently, but since the Oronde Gadsden explosion, the efficiency has tailed off (last three games: 59.4% catch rate). Not ideal, but we are looking at a player whom Herbert clearly trusts and is trending in a positive direction after a sluggish start to the campaign.

McConkey is my top-ranked Charger receiver this week and for the rest of the season, checking in as a high-end WR2 for Week 10.

Luther Burden III | CHI (vs NYG)

Development isn’t linear.

A wise friend shared this with me at a young age, and it has proven accurate through all walks of life.

Not all players or situations are the same, and that is why patience can be so valuable.

Luther Burden isn’t in a spot to succeed this season, and I’m now confident that “patience” regarding him in fantasy circles means 2026 and beyond.

The explosive rookie hasn’t been on the field for 30% of Chicago’s snaps in a single game this season and has a high-water mark of 6.5 expected points.

Don’t lose track of this name in the eight-plus months between today and your 2026 draft, but there are zero signs of him returning any sort of meaningful value this season, and that means you are free to cut ties.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at SEA)

Harrison matched a career-high in terms of receptions in the first half on Monday night and was pretty clearly the focal point of this Brissett-led offense during the scripted plays.

His production did tail off a bit (just one catch in the second half), but with three third-down receptions in the first quarter, he was finally being treated like the WR1 that the Cardinals drafted him to be (and the WR1 that we’ve spent 1.5 years chasing).

Arizona has been steadfast in saying that Murray is their starting QB when healthy, and while that doesn’t undo the good we saw in Week 9, it certainly muzzles it to a degree.

Season Splits

• With Murray: 1.81 yards per route, 18.9% of routes see a target
• With Brissett: 2.33 yards per route, 21.3% of routes see a target

With 58+ receiving yards in four of five games and a 20+-yard catch in each of his past four, you’re starting Harrison either way, but the man under center is the difference between a strong WR2 and a strong flex in my ranks.

News broke on Wednesday that Murray will miss at least the next four weeks, and that gives me an increased level of confidence in Arizona’s WR1 for the remainder of the season.

Matthew Golden | GB (vs PHI)

I said it last week, and I’ll double down after another underwhelming performance from the Packers’ rookie receiver.

You can move on from Matthew Golladay in most formats.

I understand that the pedigree and single-play upside is tempting, but not only is he banged up, but his aDOT has regressed in a major way since the return of Christian Watson. The case to drop Golladay stems more from strategy than the player himself, though the two are obviously intertwined.

Are you ever going to start him with confidence?

A simple question: if your answer is no, then, in my opinion, any player is droppable. I don’t see Golladay carving out a role that necessitates starting him, and we’ve seen injuries occur around him with minimal impact on his usage.

The argument could be made for one more week (assuming health), to see what the target distribution looks like sans Tucker Kraft. That’s fair, and I won’t stand in your way, but if you don’t have that luxury, Golladay is squarely on the chopping block.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs ATL)

The Colts were largely a mess on Sunday, but Pittman recorded his first 100-yard performance of the season and earned 9+ targets for a third consecutive game.

At the beginning of this season, I was worried that this offense was going to function similarly to that of Green Bay’s: a viable passing game, but no one receiver you could rely on weekly.

That’s not the case. Pierce and Downs have had their moments, but five top-15 finishes for Pittman are more than enough to consider him the alpha of this high-functioning offense and a fantasy lineup lock.

Given the price you paid for him on draft day and the weekly positive contributions he’s made to your starting lineup, Pittman is in the running for most valuable drafted asset this year, and I don’t think that’s at all a hot take.

He could draw shadow coverage this week, and Daniel Jones is coming off a five-turnover game. In theory, that’s as bad a lead-in as you can have to a week, and yet, Pittman is still safely ranked inside of my top 20 at the position.

Nico Collins | HOU (vs JAX)

Davis Mills’ first completion last week was a 26-yarder to Nico Collins, and six of his 10 first-half connections went to Houston’s WR1.

And then, nothing.

In consecutive games, Collins has been shut out in the second half, an odd quirk that is probably more of a QB stat than a WR stat (22 routes, six targets, zero receptions).

Moving the chains is a struggle for this offense. They can’t block and thus can’t run the ball. Without any fear of balance, this allows defenses to ramp up the aggression, and, regardless of who is under center, that’s a tough spot to be in.

Collins is probably one of the 10 most gifted receivers in the sport, and his raw talent, combined with scripts that are clearly built around passes being thrown his direction, keep him as a lineup lock in all formats, even if the ceiling is far lower than what I had penciled in this summer.

He accounted for 104 of Houston’s 204 receiving yards in the Week 3 meeting with these Jaguars and should again be weighed down with as many looks as he can handle (30.6% target share in that contest).

Parker Washington | JAX (at HOU)

With Travis Hunter on IR for at least another three weeks, Parker Washington is likely to hold utility for those of us scratching and clawing for PPR production.

The third-year pro out of Penn State accounted for 34.8% of Trevor Lawrence’s completions against the Raiders on Sunday. While it was Dyami Brown that saw the first pass, it was largely the Washington show all over the field (four targets came 10+ yards downfield, while another three came no more than five yards past the line of scrimmage).

Brian Thomas suffered an ankle injury during the game, and the TE position is vacant mainly right now in Jacksonville, leaving Washington as a featured outlet, at least in the short term.

This is obviously a brutal matchup that has only been burned by the best of the best (Puka Nacua and Smith-Njigba), but you’re not asking for 20+ PPR points. You’re looking for a highly efficient 6-8 targets to get you through the week, and I think there’s a good chance you get that.

He was sitting just inside my top 35 at the position before the acquisition of Meyers. I’m not sure how much the former Raider will impact this game, but I assume he’ll be active, and his targets are likely to come directly off the plate of Washington.

He’s now ranked in the low 40s, thinking that Meyers takes a target or two away from him.

Puka Nacua | LAR (at SF)

There was a pre-bye injury, there was an in-game injury, and there was a jaw-dropping play.

Fantasy managers got the full Nacua experience last week in the blowout of the Saints, as he hit 85+ receiving yards for the sixth time in seven games this season.

The touchdown, his third straight healthy game with a score, was a work of art and a reminder that a perfect throw can beat near-perfect coverage. With Stafford locked in, it feels close to impossible to stop Nacua for a full 60 minutes, something that certainly proved true in the first meeting of these two teams (10-85-1).

This week, there’s a very definitive Tier 1 at the wide receiver position: Nacua and Smith-Njigba. I imagine that both get plenty of ownership in the DFS streets this week, and your ability to pick nits could be the difference between a big score and nothing.

The injury risk, along with the 49ers largely keeping Nacua around 10 yards per catch during his career, has me ranking JSN as my WR1 this week, but both are obviously gamebreakers at the highest level.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs PIT)

After a doughnut, Quentin Johnston found paydirt on an absolutely perfect pass from Herbert on a 20-yard route to the corner of the end zone.

It was good to see a priority put on getting QJ involved (five-yard gain on Herbert’s first pass). While his usage trailed off after that (four Chargers finished with 5-7 targets), the valuable targets post Oronde Gadsden’s breakout were a must-have for those trying to justify playing Johnston weekly.

He’s a fine play, but any offense is going to have trouble supporting four threats weekly, especially if the run game is effective. You know you’re signing up for a player with a wide range of outcomes: if that isn’t for you, take a spin on our free Trade Analyzer and see how you can shuffle the deck before the deadline comes and your roster is locked.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (vs ARI)

Rashid Shaheed averages 14.9 yards per catch for his career, and all we’ve wanted is volume to complement his spike play potential.

Had we unlocked it?

Maybe.

He was targeted on 16 of 45 routes run with Shough under center, a rate that ranks among the elite. The involvement is good to see, though the equation has changed a bit, as he doesn’t have a catch of 20+ air yards from the rookie just yet.

But now the math all changes.

The volume outlook isn’t nearly as optimistic today as it was a week ago, but what Shaheed loses in quantity, he projects to more than make up for in quality.

Sam Darnold Deep Throw Rankings This Season

• YPA: 1st (19.2)
• Fantasy PPG: 2nd (8.0)
• Completion%: 2nd (63.5%)
• Passer Rating: 4th (130.6)
• TD Rate: 4th (13.5%)

I think an adjustment period is likely, but it doesn’t take much. With news of this deal, Shaheed moved up 10 spots in my Week 10 rankings, and now he is a player I’d be comfortable flexing over the likes of DK Metcalf and Jameson Williams.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (at MIN)

Rashod Bateman scored in Miami on Thursday night, but there is no reason to be rostering a below-average target earner in an offense that operates primarily through the ground.

If the Eagles were playing without DeVonta Smith or AJ Brown, would you be interested in Jahan Dotson?

I wouldn’t be, and that’s essentially the profile that Bateman fills. He has one game this season with even 7.5 expected PPR points and has been held under 15 yards in three of his past four. His aDOT is down two full yards from a season ago, so even the targets he’s earning don’t offer the upside that they once did.

Don’t get sucked in by the touchdown in Lamar Jackson’s return: this isn’t a player that needs to be rostered in standard-sized leagues.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs LAR)

It’s tough to feel like we are close to a return here, as the team hasn’t exactly been offering consistent updates, and Rick Pearsall himself cited “instability” as the primary issue with his knee.

We know that he’s a big play waiting to happen, but in owning such a skill set, he isn’t the type of player I’d be looking to play in his first game back. His status is TBD for right now, but I’m telling you that it shouldn’t matter for our purposes: I’m going to need to see at least four healthy quarters from Pearsall before even putting him on my flex radar.

Rome Odunze | CHI (vs NYG)

Before last week, Rome Odunze was averaging 2.8 receiving yards for every point the Bears put on the board. He had five top-20 performances and scored at least 10% over expectations in four of his previous six games.

So, a goose egg in a spot in which the Bears put 47 points on the board was surprising.

I’m going to largely ignore that speed bump, but it is worth noting that he’s been held under 35 receiving yards in three of four games following the early bye, and the offense as a whole hasn’t missed a beat.

This is part of the Ben Johnson experience. He’s got the Odunze motor running smoothly early in the season, then was Swift, and now he might be working toward unlocking Colston Loveland.

We might get a few more down games, but I expect more good than bad the rest of the way. If Caleb Williams puts an end zone target on his chest last week instead of behind him, the fantasy production looks better, and you’re probably not sweating in the same way.

I was encouraged by Odunze popping up in some big blocking spots last week to spur chunk gains. He’s engaged, and this team seems to be buying in: sit tight, we will get back to the top 15 production that you came to expect after the explosive September.

Romeo Doubs | GB (vs PHI)

We can say it now.

The Packers’ WR carousel is now a complicated fight for WR2 honors, as Romeo Doubs seems to have put to bed a race for the top spot on this depth chart.

The fourth-year receiver has seen at least eight targets in four of his past five games, and while he hasn’t scored since his Week 4 hat trick against the Cowboys, the volume is a signal that Jordan Love has one player he trusts more than the rest, especially in the void left by Tyjae Spears.

On Sunday, he was responsible for five of Love’s first 15 completions and finished with multiple end zone targets for the second time this season. With Josh Jacobs continuing to fight through this calf injury, I think it’s perfectly logical to pencil this team in for a pass-centric plan against the reigning champs, and that puts Doubs in the low-end WR2 conversation.

Stefon Diggs | NE (at TB)

Stefon Diggs has scored in consecutive weeks after not finding paydirt once in the first seven weeks, but the volume has fallen off the table, and that means he currently carries more projectable risk than reward.

Drake Maye is developing almost too fast for those of us with Diggs rostered.

The math leading up to this season stemmed from Diggs being the clear-cut WR1 and thus absorbing 8-10 targets per week. Instead, we’ve seen the second-year QB not hesitate to spread the ball around, and that has Diggs averaging 4.8 targets per game over the past month.

We are looking at a player you can flex weekly when your roster breaks a certain way, but one that you should never feel obligated to play.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs DET)

This is lining up awfully similar to the Brock Purdy injury situation.

The injuries and positions are obviously different, but both were hampered, returned, and are now missing more time due to a reinjury and/or never really being right in the first place.

We got news on Sunday that Terry McLaurin’s quad injury will cost him at least one more game, and sitting Week 11, ahead of the Week 12 bye, is very much on the table.

He’s seen more than four targets in only one of his four games this season, as he’s struggled to live up to expectations with Deebo Samuel earning work alongside him.

You’re obviously holding, but the outlook isn’t great. If you can look through the injury trees, there is a home game against the Cowboys on Christmas that could undo all wrongs, with that being Championship week for most.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (vs NO)

It seems like, every year, there are a few players that flash on the field, but less so in the box score.

Tetairoa McMillan certainly qualifies.

The rookie is a pro-level target earner, but he’s playing in an underwhelming offense, and that’s why, despite the volume of looks, he’s been held under 50 receiving yards in three of his past four and has scored in only one game this year.

RELATED: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool

He could have scored last week in Lambeau, but Bryce Young delivered a high target with some weird spin on it, and he couldn’t convert. This is the first of two New Orleans matchups coming up, spots where the extra attention from the defense may not be too preventive.

I’m starting McMillan with confidence in this matchup: I’ll go back to doing the “not all targets are created equal” thing next week against the Falcons, but in this spot, his 8-10 target projection comes with top-24 fantasy production attached to it.

Tory Horton | SEA (vs ARI)

Tory Horton scored twice in the blowout of the Commanders last week, taking advantage of the condensed target patterns that resulted from Cooper Kupp (hamstring/heel) sitting.

I think the rookie has some fundamental pro-level skills, but he still hasn’t run more than 20 routes in a game this season, and that creates too low a floor for him to crack my flex tier.

The matchup with the Cardinals (on short rest) is nothing to worry about, but I like big play threats like Pierce (vs. ATL) and Shaheed (at CAR) more than I do Horton.

Travis Hunter | JAX (at HOU)

Adding an injury to the Travis Hunter profile both feels inevitable and unfair.

Last Friday, news emerged that a knee injury has landed the talented rookie on IR, meaning he’ll miss at least three more games. Considering that the fantasy postseason is far from favorable (Colts twice, Jets, and Broncos), our usage of Hunter this season may be over.

Weekly Participation Report

• Week 1: 27 routes, 6 defensive snaps
• Week 2: 27 routes, 39 defensive snaps
• Week 3: 27 routes, 41 defensive snaps
• Week 4: 23 routes, 9 defensive snaps
• Week 5: 26 routes, 25 defensive snaps
• Week 6: 44 routes, 22 defensive snaps
• Week 7: 51 routes, 12 defensive snaps

I’ll hold, but not with much in the way of optimism. I’m holding because, given his importance to this franchise, if the Jags deem him as healthy, we have to take their word for it.

Dyami Brown should continue to see an uptick in usage, and Brenton Strange is on the final week of his IR stint, so yes, there aren’t any immediate solutions that matter in most spots for fantasy managers.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (at CHI)

Wan’Dale Robinson might be the most painful plug-and-play pick in PPR leagues, but with 6+ catches in three of four games and zero threats to his volume, he’s a viable play weekly, even if the upside is capped to what we saw on Sunday.

• 9 catches
• 11 targets
• 46 yards
• 48 air yards

None of what Robinson does is “fun”, but Jaxson Dart seems to understand that his options are limited and that getting the ball out of his hands is valuable.

In a non-PPR setting or one that overweights scores, Robinson isn’t a top-50 player at the position. In full PPR? I’ve got him flirting with top 30 status, in the same range as Khalil Shakir.

Xavier Legette | CAR (vs NO)

There was always going to be a limited runway for any WR2 in this offense to earn enough looks to be even remotely viable, and with Jalen Coker now back, that ship has sailed.

Over the past two weeks, Xavier Legette has more routes than yards, and while he does get scoring chances (seven end zone targets), there simply isn’t enough scoring equity attached to this Bryce Young-led unit.

If you’re backed into a corner and chasing a touchdown, I’d rather take a thin flier on a better offense than a reasonably involved player on this Panthers team.

Zay Flowers | BAL (at MIN)

We saw Lamar Jackson hit Zay Flowers with a quick pass (seven-yard gain) to get his day started on Thursday night, a rhythm pass that was good for him to connect on after the missed time.

When all was said and done in a non-competitive win, Flowers caught all five of his targets for a team-high 64 yards. The passing game wasn’t asked to do much, so the fact that the WR1 was still able to crack double figures in PPR points should be viewed as a win.

There was a deep connection that Jackson put on a frozen rope to Flowers, resulting in a 39-yard gain that reminded us of just how good this duo can be. Without much competition at the position and an ever-expanding route tree, I think you can feel great about starting Flowers as a WR2 in any matchup as long as the upside of Jackson is under center.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (vs ARI)

The ever-popular TE sneak got you to the finish line if you played AJ Barner on Sunday night, but the limited volume through the air remains a concern.

Only once this season has he earned 5+ targets in a game, and that’s saying something with Sam Darnold playing at about as high a level as he is capable of. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the ace on this team and is the only Seahawk I’m comfortable with on a weekly basis.

I’d rather play Barner than the back-end of TE committees in Cleveland and Baltimore, but that doesn’t land him in my top 15 for Week 10.

Cade Otton | TB (vs NE)

Cade Otton is going to be a viable tight end streamer for the remainder of the season.

I don’t think the upside, even with a crippled cast around him, is enough to elevate him above that level. For the season, he has just one end zone target (Week 2) and has more games with single-digit yardage totals than games with 55+.

So no, I don’t think he can get to the “reliable starter” level, but with a 20+ yard catch in four straight and plenty of targets up for grabs with Mike Evans out for the year on top of various other injuries, his floor is higher than the names on your waiver wire.

He’s boring and is unlikely to win you this week or any week. That said, the name of the game for many is to roster a tight end that won’t outright cost them their matchup, and I think Otton checks that box.

Cole Kmet | CHI (vs NYG)

Cole Kmet entered last week battling a back injury and then exited in the second quarter with a head injury.

He’s been running into health hurdles for a month now, but the biggest issue he has is a Colston Loveland problem.

The rookie exploded last week and scored the game-winning touchdown: this was a committee situation early in the season, but those days seem to be over.

There’s not nearly enough contingent value to hold a fully healthy Kmet, and there’s no guarantee that we get that version of him with regularity moving forward.

Kmet can be safely dropped, even if he clears all protocols during the workweek.

Colston Loveland | CHI (vs NYG)

No player had a louder Week 9 than Colston Loveland, a high-pedigree rookie who was having the best fantasy day of his season before the 58-yard game-winning TD to cap his 6-118-2 day in Cincinnati.

Kmet’s late departure in the first half certainly aided the role expansion, but we were trending that way prior (7-2 route edge in the first quarter). There are plenty of mouths to feed in this offense, but with Ben Johnson feeling himself and motivated to make this first-round pick look the part, I’m comfortable in elevating Loveland to the top 10 at the position.

Williams can have a wide range of weekly outcomes, but the ceiling performances are high enough to suck me in on Loveland over tight ends like Kyle Pitts and Harold Fannin, two players at the mercy of lesser QBs.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (at GB)

Is Dallas Goedert the TE version of 2024 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine?

It may not be that dramatic, and there’s certainly a value difference because of the position he plays, but this is about as shaky of a profile for any of the options that most appear to be comfortable in locking in.

This season, Goedert has scored on 17.9% of his targets, nearly four times (4.7%) his career rate. He’s doing this with only one end zone opportunity (hasn’t had more than five in a season since 2019) and a target share that is down from 23.1% in 2021 to 20.3%.

I believe that Goedert’s consistent playing time on a strong offense keeps him out of the streaming tier at the position … but not by much.

With no more than four targets in each of Philadelphia’s last four wins, we really don’t have proof that they value him in neutral-to-positive scripts, a situation that I like the Eagles to operate in more often than not moving forward.

He’s a fringe TE1 for me this week because the position gets ugly in a hurry, but I’m terrified of the floor, both this week and for the remainder of the season.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at MIA)

It seems to be an every-other-game thing with Dalton Kincaid, but the fact that he has the confidence of Josh Allen (15.2 yards per catch and an 81.8% catch rate) is good enough for me to lock him in weekly.

Last week, he benefited from the corner losing his footing and scored from 23 yards out, his fourth TD of the season. I’m more willing to buy into a target share that’s been at least 25% in three straight games than to panic about the lack of red-zone usage (zero touches inside the 20 since Week 1).

Kincaid checks in as my TE7 this week and should be started in all formats. When these teams met in Week 3, he led Buffalo in catches (five), targets (six), receiving yards (66), and was responsible for one of Josh Allen’s three touchdown passes.

The scoring is likely to regress over time, but as long as his efficiency remains and the role doesn’t change significantly, I see no reason to consider him anything other than a lineup lock.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs JAX)

Dalton Schultz has reached 60 receiving yards in three of his last four games and 6+ targets in five of six, usage that elevates him to the top of the streamer conversation.

Stroud left last week with a concussion (not before he got Schultz a 47-yard catch, the longest of his career), but I’m not sure that the TE’s production is all that tied to who is under center.

Schultz has proven to be the outlet pass in this offense, a valuable weekly role given the struggles of this offensive line. The upside is capped, but you’re not starting him to swing your matchup: you’re doing it to steady the ship.

If you can get 8-12 PPR points from your tight end, you’re going to be competitive more often than not and I think you can continue to bank on him for that (8.9 PPR points in the Week 3 loss in Jacksonville).

David Njoku | CLE (at NYJ)

David Njoku (knee) was a game-time decision in Week 8, but he elected to play and scored 13.7 PPR points in the blowout loss at the hands of the Patriots.

Maybe a full-strength version of him will emerge this week and change the course of things, but in the games played on either end of the injury (Week 7 DNP), Fannin has been the more featured of the two tight ends on this roster.

Even with that being the case, both Fannin and Njoku had a target share north of 20% in both games. This is a broken offense that lacks options … and that works out well for these tight ends!

If one can take over this room, we might be talking about a top-8 option. Until that happens, both are on the low end of the TE1 radar: playing either is viable, even in what might be the ugliest game of the week (or the season).

George Kittle | SF (vs LAR)

George Kittle has turned 79 routes into just 75 yards since missing over a month, but he did get two red-zone touches last week against the Giants and seems to be trending in the right direction.

Is the slow start a pain? Of course it is, but there’s no threat to his tight end role and a lack of healthy target earners not named McCaffrey.

Kittle reached double figures in PPR points in his last meeting with the Rams, and I think we get him trending in that direction sooner than later, regardless of who is under center.

There’s nothing actionable to do with these struggles. Kittle can’t be traded at his current value, and there’s no one available that has anything close to enough of a role to justify starting him over Kittle.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (at NYJ)

Harold Fannin found the end zone in Week 8 against the Patriots before the bye and has now caught at least four passes in each of Cleveland’s past four games.

It should be noted that Njoku has been battling a knee injury for the majority of that run, and with a week off, the veteran TE should be in as good a shape this week as he was at any point in October.

That’s why I think this is a hinge game for the rest of the season. Do the Browns prioritize the 21-year-old tight end? If so, he’s a top-10 tight end for the remainder of the season. I’ll rank him as such starting next week should we see him dominate the snap share over a healthy Njoku, but I need to see it before projecting as much.

I have Fannin over Njoku this week, but both are just outside of my top 15 at the position for Week 10.

Hunter Henry | NE (at TB)

Hunter Henry hasn’t seen an end zone target in four straight games and hasn’t hit double-digit expected points at any point during this six-game win streak.

This is what the streaming tier is.

Henry is attached to a good offense and has been on the field for at least three-quarters of their snaps in eight of nine games. That’s going to land him near the top of my streamers’ range at the position, but we’ve seen Drake Maye be plenty comfortable in taking what the defense gives him.

The Bucs own the 11th-lowest opponent aDOT this season, and that’s the type of matchup where Henry can ugly his way to 10 PPR points. He’s currently my TE12, ranked just ahead of other TEs with young QBs who are carving out their space in the NFL (Theo Johnson and T.J. Hockenson).

Isaiah Likely | BAL (at MIN)

Technically speaking, Isaiah Likely saw an end zone target on the third-down play before Mark Andrews scored on fourth down, but it wasn’t a competitive pass, as Lamar Jackson was late in reacting to the pressure and airmailed the pass intentionally.

He was able to shake free for a chunk play on the final snap of the first quarter (35 yards), and that saved what was a low-volume day for Baltimore (23 pass attempts against 31 runs).

That’s the risk, and it will always be the risk: if this team is clicking, Jackson isn’t dropping back 35+ times, which makes counting on either side of a TE committee difficult.

Likely had receptions of 10 and 15 yards within a four-play stretch on the first drive of the second half, and that was his final line for the day (3-60-0). He earned one more target on four fewer routes than Mark Andrews, so if you’re nitpicking the role, that’s a plus, but Charlie Kolar (2-23-1) outscored him for the night, and that’s where we are right now with this passing game.

You can start Zay Flowers, but that’s it. Both tight ends are viable, but with the presence of the other, neither is particularly exciting and comes with a low ceiling.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs NO)

The Panthers won on Sunday and are shockingly in the playoff mix, but that doesn’t mean their passing game is clicking.

It’s not.

And even if it doesn’t improve, there’s no proof that it’ll be via the tight end position. Last week, the trio of Tommy Tremble/Ja’Tavion Sanders/Mitchell Evans combined for 78 offensive snaps, but ran just 23 routes and two targets.

There are a lot of TEs in this range and almost all of them play for an offense I trust more. This feels like as good a spot as you’ll get for the Panthers, and while that’s true, it simply means that they are likely to run the ball even more than normal.

I’d go as low as the Steelers’ trio of tight ends in the ranks over Sanders. Heck, if you’re truly stuck, Taysom Hill’s goofy role makes more sense than the risk profile that Sanders currently has access to.

Jake Tonges | SF (vs LAR)

Kittle hasn’t been the superstar in his three weeks back that we had hoped, but it’s not as if his usage is going to anyone else at the position.

Jake Tonges ran just five routes last week (22 for Kittle) and is viewed by the team as a hole opener for McCaffrey more than anything.

There’s some contingent value here, but not enough to hold through the weeks in which Kittle is active.

Jonnu Smith | PIT (at LAC)

The tight end position as a whole is getting used in Pittsburgh, but those looks are split three ways, and considering that Jonnu Smith doesn’t have a 15-yard catch since mid-September, there’s just not enough upside to even consider going this way.

Pat Freiermuth scored last week and has the only real spike performance from the position in this offense. Darnell Washington’s size alone makes him a threat in scoring situations, leaving Smith to work between the 20s and hope to rack up the volume.

That’s an iffy role if executed at a high level, and Smith isn’t doing that (34 targets in eight games this season).

Jaylen Warren is the only Pittsburgh player I’m starting with any level of confidence. That’s true for Week 10, and I don’t see changing for the remainder of the season.

Juwan Johnson | NO (at CAR)

It was good to see Juwan Johnson find the end zone for the first time since Week 2, but I’m not labeling any good vibes from last week as transferable with Shough under center.

His average depth of target was dialed back to 5.8 yards last week, and that increases the point expectancy of each look. I just worry about the volume part of that equation as a part of an offense that struggles to move the ball with any level of consistency.

Rashid Shaheed seems to have the eye of Shough, Olave isn’t going away, and Taysom Hill continues to weasel his way into usage. I’d much rather stream a player like Luka Musgrave, a player I view as a lesser talent but is tied to a far superior offense.

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (at IND)

Kyle Pitts saw his first end zone target of the season last week and has racked up 26 looks during this three-game skid. Darnell Mooney has been a non-factor since returning, and that, on Sunday at least, meant that Pitts was left handling his duties.

His 11.9-yard aDOT against the Patriots was easily a season high. While that introduces more single-play upside than the shallow target role he’d been occupying prior, it also ramps up the weekly variance, a trade-off I’m not thrilled about making with Michael Penix pulling the trigger.

If Mooney can get going, I think we get stable TE8-12 production from Pitts. That’s what I’m ranking for this week on a fast track in Indy, but last week, despite the seven targets, was more concerning than encouraging for those with exposure to Pitts.

Luke Musgrave | GB (vs PHI)

Luke Musgrave was drafted ahead of Tucker Kraft in 2023, but their careers have gone in different directions.

Until now.

Musgrave profiles as the natural fill-in for the void left by Kraft (torn ACL). That’s great for those of you in points per offensive snap leagues, but outside of that, I think you’re living on a prayer.

Kraft’s ability to change the game with the ball in his hands is why he was averaging four catches per game and a weekly starter. Musgrave hasn’t shown us that at the professional level and, given the depth of WR talent on this roster, I’m not sure he gets the chance to.

Musgrave will be on the field plenty for a good offense, so keep him on your streamer Bingo card, but I need to see proof of concept before I trust him with a spot on my roster.

Mark Andrews | BAL (at MIN)

Jackson only needed to throw 23 passes in the more-dominant-than-the-final-score-indicates win over the Dolphins on Thursday night, and that naturally resulted in low volume across the board as he fed six players multiple targets.

Mark Andrews, however, was able to pay your trust off in a big way, scoring on both of his receptions, efficiently finishing as the top skill player for the Ravens in Week 9.

This is what he is: a low-end starter or a high-end streamer, depending on your format. You may not want to hear that because of his name value, but he has two multi-TD games this season and zero top-15 finishes at the position otherwise.

Andrews is essentially a poor version of Dallas Goedert, and I’m far from sold that the Eagles’ TE is a safe weekly play. Due to the number of people cycling through tight ends, I can’t imagine that there is much in the way of value on your wire right now, but trading this veteran off of this big game might just be the play.

See if you can build up his pedigree, Baltimore’s need to keep the gas pushed to the floor, and the two-TD upside: if you can get a stable flex player weekly, I’d make the move and piece together the TE position for the rest of the season.

Mason Taylor | NYJ (vs CLE)

You mean betting on a rookie tight end in a Fields-led offense comes with a wide range of outcomes?

Mason Taylor has seen 7+ targets in three of his past five, but he’s also managed to reach 35 receiving yards in just two of eight this season.

He’s the definition of a streaming option. I like the player, but I don’t like the environment, and specifically in this spot, how many points are going to be scored?

Taylor has scored north of 6.12 PPR points three times this season, in games against the Cowboys, Bengals, and Dolphins that saw an average of 61.3 points put on the board.

It might take these two teams a month to score that much, and that’s why I’m not the least bit tempted to go this route this weekend.

Oronde Gadsden II | LAC (vs PIT)

We had the Quentin Johnston run of excellence in this offense early in the season, and he certainly seems to have handed off the baton to Oronde Gadsden.

The rookie has caught all 10 of his targets over the past two games and has cleared 65 receiving yards in each of his past four. Trey McBride was the only TE with such a streak (over 65 receiving yards in four straight) last season, and as far as rookie pass catchers (WR/TE) to rip off such a run since 2023, Gadsden’s name is now sitting next to Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Nacua.

I have no idea why you’d be skeptical in the short term. The Bolts aren’t taking him off the field (30+ routes and a red zone touch in all four of those games), and he’s rewarded them by catching 15-of-17 targets over this run that have been thrown to or behind the sticks.

He’s essentially a version of the run game, a 6’5″, 236-pound super-athletic version of the run game.

Gadsden has a catch gaining north of 30 yards in three straight contests, and his ability to marry volume with upside makes him an easy click weekly when setting your lineup. I’ve got him as TE6 for Week 10, a ranking that could place him as a viable flex option if you added him to a roster that already had a reliable tight end.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at LAC)

I understand the reflex to want to roster Pat Freiermuth. He’s scored three times in three weeks and plays for a team that lacks depth at the receiver position behind DK Metcalf.

I get it, but I’m not confident in Metcalf weekly, so selling me on one part of a tight end committee is going to take a lot more than a few nice plays over the course of two months.

Week 9 Participation Report

• Darnell Washington: 41 snaps, 16 routes, 6 targets
• Freiermuth: 28 snaps, 20 routes, 4 targets
• Jonnu Smith: 25 snaps, 17 routes, 5 targets

If one of these three were to get hurt, the math shifts, and maybe, maybe, we can have a discussion. But with all three healthy and doing very similar things in terms of route depth, YAC ability, etc., I can’t imagine going into a week with much confidence that you have the right one plugged in.

Last week, Washington and Freiermuth ran eight red zone routes apiece while Smith checked in with six. If there were a clear funnel for the most valuable of the tight end targets, maybe I could get on board. But this is a mess that I’m not wasting time with in any capacity.

Stream a player who is on the field more often and has a consistent role carved out, even if it’s not as big as you’d like.

Sam LaPorta | DET (at WAS)

Sometimes teams are coy about what they want to do or which matchup they’d like to pick.

Other times, not so much.

Jared Goff hit Sam LaPorta for gains of 11 and 15 yards on Detroit’s first two plays last week against the Vikings, a drive that ended up with the tight end turning a fourth-down catch into a 46-yard score.

This is why I always preach leaning into an offensive environment. The Lions threaten opponents in so many ways that, if they identify a single player as holding a significant edge, they can pick at that scab without the opponent being able to do much about it.

Not every week will work out as cleanly as last week did. But with Williams being utilized more as a vertical threat and Gibbs less as a pass catcher, there is a 6-8 target role to pencil in for LaPorta every week, a role that carries one of the 10 highest floors at the position, given the efficient stylings of Goff.

You can feel good about starting LaPorta every week moving forward, and great this week against a Commanders defense that showed no areas of strength last week.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs BAL)

T.J. Hockenson scoring a revenge TD last week, his first trip to the end zone since Week 3, was great to see, but I’m not at all certain that he’s a weekly starter.

In J.J. McCarthy’s return to action, Hockenson earned just a 13% target share. Unless you think that this offense is going to make a massive step forward in terms of efficiency moving forward, that rate of involvement is more in line with a streamer at the position than anything else.

We know Justin Jefferson is an All-World talent and that Jordan Addison brings a level of upside that is otherwise lacking from this offense. But with McCarthy icing the game with a trust pass to Jalen Nailor, not to mention Jones’ ability to be split out wide, I think we are fighting an uphill battle.

This game could be a shootout, and so could next week’s home date with the Bears. If Minnesota finds itself in track meets, Hockenson can flirt with TE1 status if for no other reason than the high count in red zone trips.

But after that are games against the Packers and Seahawks, spots where it’s possible, if not likely, that this offense will be quiet.

There aren’t many instances where I’d hold two tight ends on my roster, but if you wanted to marry Hockenson’s schedule with a Luke Musgrave or other streaming option and play the matchup game, I’d give you the green light, provided that your depth is stable elsewhere.

Trey McBride | ARI (at SEA)

Trey McBride has more touchdowns over his past three games (four) than he had ever had in an entire season, and he hasn’t caught fewer than five passes in a game since Week 16 of last season.

The impact of who is under center is much more of a Harrison question than it is one for their All-World tight end: McBride is giving us the highest floor at the most volatile position in fantasy.

He wasn’t cheap this season, and he won’t be next year, but this weekly stability is hard to quantify. If you have McBride rostered, my hunch is that you’re sitting in a good spot. If you don’t, I bet the team that does is in a good spot.

We get obsessed with upside because it’s fun. It’s flashy. But the truth of the matter is that weekly output like this, at a tough position, is more valuable than just about anything in our game.

Tucker Kraft | GB (vs PHI)

Tucker Kraft suffered a knee injury late in the second quarter against the Panthers over the weekend and never managed to return, ending a streak of four straight double-digit PPR games dead in its tracks.

The injury looms as a real concern, even for an active player, given the number of pass-catching options in this offense. That said, I don’t see how you can do anything but follow the team’s lead on this one.

If the Packers play him, you do the same.

In Weeks 7-8, he earned 19 targets and was well on his way to proving himself as Jordan Love’s top option. A compromised version of Kraft wouldn’t be ideal, but at the TE position, it’s enough.

But that’s going to be a 2026 discussion after news broke that Kraft’s ACL is, in fact, torn. It’ll be natural to lose track of a player who isn’t on your radar for the final two months, but if he can clear rehab in time for Week 1 next year, he’s a viable starter at the position without much hesitation.

Tyler Warren | IND (vs ATL)

The fact that Tyler Warren can still catch five passes in a game where seemingly everything went sideways for the Colts is a nod to just how entrenched he is in what this offense wants to do.

In the loss at Pittsburgh, Warren finished with just 26 yards and, for the first time in his career, failed to catch a pass that gained 17+ yards. It was a mess for everyone attached to this offense, though their TE wasn’t far from turning in another top-10 week, as he appeared to be in position to score a touchdown on a short pass that Cam Hayward deflected before it had a chance to get to him.

His dud happening the same week as the Brock Bowers explosion might prompt some pivoting away from him as a Tier 1 option at the position, but I’m not in that camp. If anything, the Tucker Kraft injury removes one name from the weekly lock conversation at the TE position, thus making those still included in that tier even more valuable.

This is a blip on the radar. Rub some dirt on it and do the responsible thing.

Play Warren without a second thought.

Zach Ertz | WAS (vs DET)

Zach Ertz has been held to single-digit PPR points in five of his past seven and hasn’t reached 13 in a game this season.

The veteran’s profile would be in trouble if his dynamic quarterback were still under center, but with Jayden Daniels out of the picture, I think you’re best served streaming the position.

It’s not that Mariota can’t function; it’s that I don’t see enough scoring equity for Ertz to offset what is a low ceiling in terms of volume. He’s earned two end zone targets on his 252 routes this season. With scoring trips projecting to be more scarce now than they were last week, he doesn’t strike me as very different from a Theo Riddick or Hunter Henry type, both of whom have access to a more promising prospect under center.