Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. With the playoffs upon us, there is no room for error. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. So let’s take a look at our Week 15 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em: Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (vs. TEN)
Whenever you start a quarterback on a run-first offense, there’s always the risk that the running backs steal all the touchdowns. If that happens, so be it. Still, we can’t discount the tremendous opportunity in front of Brock Purdy this week.
The San Francisco 49ers are well rested coming off their bye. As a reward, they get a home date with a Tennessee Titans defense that just gave up 364 yards and four total touchdowns to Shedeur Sanders.
The Titans allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Yes, likely, this game is over after three quarters, limiting what Purdy needs to do in the fourth quarter. But the 49ers still have to get to the point where the game is decided. They are probably good for at least four touchdowns in this one. Christian McCaffrey can’t run for all of them.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (at LAR)
It’s always risky recommending Jared Goff on the road. However, I do think the Road Goff/Home Goff splits are a bit misconstrued. It’s really more of an issue with Dome Goff and Outside Goff. That won’t be an issue this week.
The Detroit Lions are coming off a decisive win against the Dallas Cowboys. They scored 44 points. Yet, Goff only managed one touchdown pass thanks to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery hogging the other four. That is scoring randomness and something we cannot account for
The Los Angeles Rams have a great defense. However, they are much more vulnerable in the air than on the ground. Plus, they are likely to force the Lions into negative game script, something the Cowboys could not do. The hope here is that we get a good old-fashioned shootout.
Goff has thrown a touchdown in every game this season, giving him a solid floor. Given how stout the Rams are against the run, hopefully, the Lions lean on the pass when they get closer to the goal line, putting Goff firmly in the QB1 ranks.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (vs. BUF)
Did you think this would be TreVeyon Henderson? No, no, no. Mike Vrabel is back to his old tricks, pushing the plodding veteran over the vastly superior and more explosive rookie. As fantasy managers, we have no choice but to play the cards as they are, not how we want them to be.
After being eased in for one week, Rhamondre Stevenson was right back in the lead role before the Patriots’ Week 14 bye. He played 58% of the snaps and saw 15 opportunities, the same as Henderson.
While this backfield is more of a split than it was the first time these teams played, that was Stevenson’s best game of the season. The veteran back totaled 142 yards on 16 touches, posting 21.2 fantasy points.
The Bills are a run funnel defense. They allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Of course, that will benefit Henderson as well. He is very much worthy of being in lineups. But don’t expect the Patriots to score all of their touchdowns through the air. At the goal line, it is going to be Stevenson, and I expect him to score for the first time since Week 7 this week, which will be enough to give him solid RB2 numbers.
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans (vs. ARI)
After Nick Chubb left last week’s game with a rib injury, it was all Woody Marks. Fantasy managers got an extremely raw deal with the rookie coming out for literally one play, giving Dare Ogunbowale the chance to punch in a short touchdown. That should’ve been Marks’ score.
How the Texans utilized their running backs on Sunday night is very telling, though. Even if Chubb plays, he is nothing more than a guy who gives Marks a breather. This is no longer a timeshare, as the thoroughly finished Chubb offers absolutely nothing but a warm body.
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Marks is the lead back, and the Texans are prepared to lean on him entirely. If Chubb doesn’t play, we may be looking at Chase Brown without the same level of usage as Samaje Perine had for Marks.
The Arizona Cardinals allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They just surrendered 212 yards on the ground to Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Fire up Marks as a potential RB1 this week.
Chris Rodriguez, RB, Washington Commanders (vs. NYG)
Chris Rodriguez is the clear lead back for the Commanders. How much does that matter? It depends on the matchup.
Given that Rodriguez offers nothing in the passing game, he is purely touchdown-or-bust. If he doesn’t score, you’re not getting 10+ fantasy points. Last week, C-Rod didn’t score. However, he did rush for a very respectable 52 yards on 10 carries. Unfortunately, the Commanders fell behind by a lot very early and really never had the ball.
Things should be different this week at home against the Giants, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
When these teams met in Week 1, Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for 82 yards and a touchdown. Austin Ekeler (remember him?) had 26 yards on six carries. Even Jeremy McNichols got in on the fun with four attempts for 25 yards.
JCM has been relegated to third string. He only saw the field last week because the score was 31-0 in the fourth quarter.
This game should be more competitive, but the game script should not get away from the Commanders, regardless of whether it’s Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Rodriguez is a good bet to find the end zone.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. ATL)
It’s now been three games since Chris Godwin returned, and his involvement has increased every week. Against the Saints, Godwin caught five of eight targets for 55 yards. Most importantly, he looks like himself.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers absolutely have to have this game if they want to win the NFC South. Emeka Egbuka has played truly horrific football for the better part of two months now. It’s time to accept that he may just have had a good run-out to start the season.
Even if Mike Evans returns on Thursday night, he won’t see a full complement of snaps given the lengthy layoff. Godwin has become Baker Mayfield’s safety blanket, and that should remain so.
Falcons-Bucs games are historically high-scoring. But even if Kirk Cousins can’t hold up his end of the bargain anymore, Godwin should be able to get there against a defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings (at DAL)
Last week, I saw the Vikings’ offensive explosion coming. That’s why I recommended Justin Jefferson as a start: right church, wrong pew.
It’s abundantly clear by now that Jefferson is not a featured part of this offense. We don’t have to understand it or agree with it. We have to accept it.
Jefferson has not scored above 11.1 fantasy points in five consecutive games. In four of those games, he was below 9.0 fantasy points. Jefferson has a total of four receptions for 15 yards over his last two combined.
The matchup against the Cowboys is as good as it gets. But Jefferson showed no ability to exploit a similarly favorable matchup last week against the Commanders. So, we turn to Jordan Addison.
The Vikings WR2 (now apparently the WR1) caught four passes for 62 yards. He was the leading receiver. Addison’s production dwarfs Jefferson’s over the past two games. Now, he gets to exploit a defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Dallas will very likely bounce back after losing to the Lions last Thursday. That means a negative game script for the Vikings and more pass attempts for JJ McCarthy. Those passes have to go somewhere, and we know they’re not going to Jefferson. Thus, Addison is the imaginative play this week.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (at CIN)
One of the more baffling decisions you will see from an NFL team is the extension the Baltimore Ravens just gave Mark Andrews. The once elite tight end is on his last legs. I would be stunned if he remained on the team for the duration of his deal. He is thoroughly washed.
With that said, nothing matters when facing the Cincinnati Bengals, a defense that has a moral opposition to covering tight ends.
The Bengals are not just bad against tight ends; they are historically bad. Never in the history of football has the gap between the team allowing the most fantasy points per game at the position and the second-most been this large.
Last week, I recommended Dalton Kincaid. That worked out because he scored, but it was actually Dawson Knox who smashed. Two weeks ago, Andrews was on this list against the Bengals the first time around. He was merely fine, as Isaiah Likely smashed. Here’s to hoping we don’t get burned by the TE2 outproducing the TE1 for a third straight week.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants (vs. WAS)
Before the New York Giants’ Week 14 bye, Theo Johnson had a middling game with three receptions for 29 yards. On the surface, it’s nothing to really care about. But Johnson saw eight targets in that contest. Jaxson Dart looked for him frequently against a Patriots defense that is middle of the pack against tight ends.
This week, the Giants face a Commanders team that allows the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. It is worth noting that the second and seventh worst teams against tight ends are packed pretty tightly together. This is still a favorable matchup, though.
Wan’Dale Robinson remains the top option in the passing game. But there is no clear No. 2. In a game that could be a sneaky shootout between two teams playing out lost seasons, Johnson is a very viable streamer this week.
Sit ‘Em: Jacoby Brissett, QB, Arizona Cardinals (at HOU)
Somehow, every week, Jacoby Brissett gets there. Even in the extreme negative game script last week, Brissett managed to reach 20 fantasy points. He’s now hit 18+ fantasy points in every start this season. Regardless of the matchup, Brissett finds a way.
This is not exactly a bold claim, but the run will end this week. Or, at least, go on pause for a game.
No one gets through on the Houston Texans. No one. Not Josh Allen. Not Patrick Mahomes. And certainly not Brissett.
The Texans are the No. 1 defense in football. No team allows fewer fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are the only team this season to have not allowed a single QB1 performance. The aforementioned Allen and Mahomes couldn’t even get to double digits.
Brissett is poised to resume carrying fantasy teams in Weeks 16 and 17. But for Week 15, find someone else.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (vs. GB)
Last week against the Raiders, the Broncos leaned heavily on RJ Harvey. That led to Bo Nix throwing for 212 scoreless yards. If not for his first rushing touchdown since Week 7, Nix might have finished in the single digits.
This game between the Broncos and Packers projects to be a low-scoring, defensive slog. These are two excellent defenses with offenses that want to run the ball.
Green Bay allows the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. All of Nix’s highly productive fantasy outings have come against bottom-of-the-barrel pass defenses. He will enjoy no such thing in this week’s matchup.
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions (at LAR)
The Lions’ backfield may feature the same players as last year, but it is nowhere near the same thing. This is not a timeshare. Jahmyr Gibbs has fully relegated David Montgomery to backup duties, and rightfully so.
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That’s not to say Montgomery isn’t still a valuable player. We saw it last week when he ripped off an impressive 35-yard touchdown that included multiple broken tackles. But he’s not Gibbs, and everyone knows it.
As a result, Montgomery’s fantasy value is entirely reliant on either him scoring or the Lions having an incredibly positive game script so they can give him sympathy carries in the fourth quarter.
Detroit has been in four straight highly competitive games. Montgomery hasn’t topped eight carries in any of them. This week should be another competitive contest. And if it’s not, it’s probably because the Lions get blown out, not the other way around.
Gibbs should be just fine because he is so dynamic and heavily involved as a receiver. Just don’t expect 30+ points. But Montgomery is going to have a tough time against a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (at SEA)
Alec Pierce did well to pull off a 5-80 line in a non-competitive contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. He continues to exceed expectations and has now crested 13.0 fantasy points in four of his last five and five of his previous seven. Unfortunately, things are about to take a turn.
I cannot envision a worse rollout for Riley Leonard’s first career start than to go into Seattle. We already saw what this looks like when Max Brosmer had to face this defense in what should definitely be the only start of his career.
Leonard didn’t look terrible filling in for an injured Daniel Jones, but the Seahawks’ defense is a different animal. The Colts are going to struggle to get first downs.
Seattle allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Colts will undoubtedly try to lean on Jonathan Taylor. When it doesn’t work and they are forced to throw, the one vulnerability the Seahawks actually have is the tight end. That makes this very likely to be a Tyler Warren day through the air. Pierce and the rest of the Colts WRs can be left on the bench.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills (at NE)
It’s wild how the unquestioned best quarterback in fantasy football doesn’t have a single reliable pass-catcher. Even Dalton Kincaid isn’t on the field enough to be a consistent weekly starter, regardless of the matchup.
At wide receiver, Josh Allen is fine throwing to whoever happens to be the guy he finds on a particular play. Perhaps Khalil Shakir is technically the No. 1, but what does that even mean?
Shakir only played half the snaps last week and ran fewer routes than Gabe Davis and James Cook. If not for a very fortunate touchdown on a broken play, it would’ve been another game of sub-3.0 fantasy points for Shakir.
It is worth noting that Shakir did see nine targets against the Patriots the first time around. He had a respectable five catches for 45 yards. But this Bills’ offense is different now. They want to run the ball and will try to do so even against a Patriots pass funnel. When they throw, recent trends suggest it’s not to Shakir. He is impossible to trust in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (vs. BUF)
For as great as the New England Patriots have been offensively all season, Hunter Henry really hasn’t been. He’s coming off back-to-back games of double-digit fantasy points. But before Weeks 12 and 13, Henry hadn’t crested double digits since Week 4.
Drake Maye spreads the ball around. One week, it could be Henry as the main guy. The next it might be Stefon Diggs. We had a week with Mack Hollins as the top target. We’ve had weeks with Kayshon Boutte leading the way. It’s a complex puzzle to solve. This week, we can confidently say it won’t be Henry, though.
The Buffalo Bills have been the No. 1 team against tight ends this season. No team allows fewer fantasy points per game to the position.
When these teams played in Week 5, Henry caught two of four targets for 46 yards. It was one of his five games with two receptions or fewer. There’s a pretty solid chance that this week becomes No. 6.
Oronde Gadsden II, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (at KC)
The Kansas City Chiefs are not quite as good against tight ends as the Bills, but they aren’t far off. They’re allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. This does not bode well for Oronde Gadsden II.
In Week 1, Justin Herbert threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns. That was a very long time ago.
Now we must acknowledge the reality that this Kansas City Chiefs team simply isn’t excellent. We keep expecting them to figure it out, and they keep…not. But one thing that’s been consistent is their ability to stop tight ends.
As if that isn’t reason enough, Gadsden’s involvement in the offense has tapered off considerably. He had that epic four-week stretch from Weeks 6-9. Outside of that run, he doesn’t have a single game over double-digit fantasy points.
He’s scored no more than 6.1 fantasy points in five straight. Gadsden belongs on the benches in Week 15.
