Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Fantasy decisions will only get more important from here on out, so let’s take a look at our Week 13 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em: Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (at DET)
If Jordan Love is your only quarterback, you are asking for him to be the reason you don’t win. He cannot be trusted every week. You have to pick your spots.
Love has now failed to throw a touchdown in three of his last four games. He’s also failed to reach 175 yards passing in three straight.
How Love performs is heavily dependent on the game script. Head coach Matt LaFleur knows what he has, or rather, doesn’t have, with Love. Whenever possible, LaFleur will do everything in his power to hide Love.
When the Packers get to face a team quarterbacked by J.J. McCarthy, they can do that. On the road against a very good Detroit Lions team, they probably won’t be able to lean on Josh Jacobs all afternoon.
In Week 1, the Packers dominated the Lions. Love threw for 188 yards, but he did happen to throw two scores. Don’t think the Lions have forgotten what that felt like. The North remembers.
Expect to see the Packers in negative game script and for Love to exceed 30 pass attempts for the first time since Week 10. The Lions are a pass funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Love should be good for at least 200 and two in this one.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (at DAL)
After Week 8, the notion of including Patrick Mahomes in a start/sit column was ridiculous. The whole point of these is to advise fantasy managers on players to start and sit that aren’t super obvious. Of course, you’re starting Mahomes…but do you still feel that way?
Specifically from Weeks 4-8, the Chiefs’ offense was humming. They scored at least 28 points in every game, and Mahomes threw (or ran) for at least two touchdowns in every single one. Since then? Not great.
Mahomes has not rushed for a score since Week 6. Over his last three games, the Chiefs quarterback has thrown a total (yes, total) of one touchdown. But if there ever were a get-right spot, it’s this one.
Thanksgiving Day. Late afternoon. National television. Jerry World. The stage is set for Patrick Mahomes to torch a Dallas Cowboys defense allowing, by far, the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
The Chiefs cannot mess around anymore. They need every game to make the playoffs. It’s hard to fathom they want to give Kareem Hunt 30 carries again in the year 2025. Fire up Mahomes with confidence. If he can’t get it done this week, we can smash the panic button.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Optimizer
Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. ARI)
Fresh off his breakout 34-point effort, Sean Tucker predictably flopped in a miserable matchup against what very well may be the best team in football. The Los Angeles Rams completely stymied the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense even before Baker Mayfield injured his shoulder.
Tucker managed a mere 5.6 fantasy points, likely leaving fantasy managers ready to cast him aside, especially in light of Bucky Irving’s expected return this week. Not so fast.
Hopefully, Mayfield can go. Obviously, everything about this offense will look pretty grim if Teddy Bridgewater has to start. The Rams probably made him look worse than he is, but Bridgewater looked completely lost out there, and we should be afraid of everything Bucs if he has to start.
But even if it is Bridgewater, that just means the Bucs will have to get creative and try and lean more on the ground game.
Irving is not about to come back to his pre-injury role. He may end up getting there, but it will take time. For at least a week or two, this will likely be an ugly three-man split between him, Tucker, and Rachaad White.
Tucker may have only played 37% of the snaps on Sunday night, but two things were at play. First, the Bucs saw extreme negative game script from the jump, which meant more White. Second, they pulled starters in the second half of the fourth quarter. Both Tucker and White sat out the final two drives.
Tucker still saw 12 carries and two targets compared to eight opportunities for White. He may very well be the RB2 behind Irving once things get settled.
For this week, Tucker should have the advantage against the Arizona Cardinals. They are fresh off allowing Travis Etienne Jr. to post his first 20-point game of the season and are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos (at WAS)
It’s obviously very unfortunate that JK Dobbins is lost for the season. That was supposed to lead to increased production from RJ Harvey, though. In his first game as the lead back, that didn’t happen.
Fantasy managers may be turned off by Harvey’s dismal 8.0-point effort against the Chiefs in Week 11. However, there were positives from that game.
Harvey may not have gotten there on the scoreboard, but he was the clear lead back. The rookie played 61% of the snaps and saw 14 opportunities. Had he found the end zone, no one would be complaining.
This feels like the week Harvey truly arrives. Denver is coming off their bye to face a Washington Commanders defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
This is a game the Broncos should have a positive game script and be able to control with the ground game and defense. Essentially, they should be able to execute the exact offense game plan Sean Payton wants to. Look for Harvey to touch the ball 15+ times and score this week.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. BUF)
It should go without saying that Jaylen Warren is a great start this week. He’s a top 12 option. There’s not much benefit in saying to start Warren. The value lies in informing fantasy managers that they can fire up Kenneth Gainwell as well.
Warren remains the lead back, but his stranglehold on this backfield has slipped. Gainwell has now played over 50% of the snaps in three consecutive games.
Last week, Gainwell had 16 touches for the second straight game. He’s now caught 13 passes over his last two, essentially serving as the No. 2 option in the passing game behind DK Metcalf.
The Buffalo Bills are not a scary defense, especially against running backs. They’re allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. You know Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith want to run the ball as much as possible. They should be able to do just that against the Bills, allowing both Warren and Gainwell to be fantasy viable.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. LV)
This is a big test as to how much we can trust the data. Outside of his scorching hot first four weeks, Quentin Johnston has been the same disaster he’s been his entire career.
Johnston posted at least 14.9 fantasy points in each of his first three games. Since then, he’s maxed out at 15.3 points, hit double digits just one other time, and recorded two bagels. If Johnston is going to break out of his funk, this is the week.
The Raiders allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Johnston already got the better of them once, recording three catches for 71 yards and a touchdown when these teams met back in Week 2.
It’s entirely possible that we end up seeing Ladd McConkey and Oronde Gadsden II as the beneficiaries of this soft matchup. But fantasy managers are not asking whether to start those two guys. Johnston is truly on the border, and I think you can trust him in Week 13.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (at TEN)
Last Sunday, Tom Pelissero reported that Brian Thomas Jr. is expected to return in Week 13. Assuming that happens, surely he has to finally have a big game this week…right?
It’s been a very disappointing sophomore campaign for BTJ. He has just a single game with more than 12.0 fantasy points and has hit double digits a mere three times. Yet, there’s reason to believe he can finish the season strong, provided he can stay healthy.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a pretty favorable rest-of-season schedule, and it starts this week.
The Tennessee Titans have this misguided perception of being a run funnel defense. That’s not exactly the case. They’ve actually not been terrible against the run outside of getting gashed by Jonathan Taylor…twice.
In reality, Tennessee struggles against the pass, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
If the Jaguars have any serious intentions of making a run, they need to get their top receiver going. Head coach Liam Coen knows this. Look for him to dial up targets for a returning Thomas in a favorable matchup.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (vs. CIN)
Last week, Hunter Henry was the top recommended streaming option even though he was coming off a series of underwhelming efforts. He delivered with 24.5 fantasy points on a 7-115-1 line. Why? He faced the Cincinnati Bengals.
It’s impressive how bad the Bengals are at covering tight ends. They are lapping the field in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to the position. No one comes close.
Mark Andrews is very much a player in decline. He hasn’t seen more than five targets or caught more than three passes in a game since Week 6. By no means is he an every-week fantasy starter. But against the Bengals, start every tight end.
Joe Burrow is expected to return on Thursday. But even if he doesn’t, the Bengals should be able to score enough to make this competitive. And the Ravens really need to get the offense going.
As much as Andrews can’t do what he used to, he can still score touchdowns. Fire him up in the best matchup possible. For a bonus, Isaiah Likely is in play this week as well.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints (at MIA)
As it turns out, it was the disastrous run from Weeks 4-6 that was the outlier, not Juwan Johnson’s emergence into a viable TE1. Amazingly, outside of that three-week stretch, Johnson has hit double-digit fantasy points in every other game this season. He’s now done it in five consecutive games, which included a switch from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough at quarterback.
It’s hard to say if the New Orleans Saints trading away Rashid Shaheed had anything to do with it, but regardless, Johnson is now the clear second option in the passing game behind Chris Olave. His importance will only continue to grow with Alvin Kamara set to miss time with a sprained MCL.
The Miami Dolphins have been a bit better defensively as of late. They will be rested coming off their bye. But they still struggle against the tight end, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Johnson is very much a top 12 option this week.
Sit ‘Em: Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (at CLE)
Brock Purdy is so much better than he gets credit for. The fact that anyone seriously discussed the notion of Mac Jones keeping the starting job is blasphemous.
In four starts, Purdy has now posted 18.7+ fantasy points in three of them. Monday night’s three interceptions notwithstanding, he’s clearly a very good quarterback, and a good fantasy quarterback as well. But this matchup is a problem.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a game in which they sacked Geno Smith 10 times. Of course, the San Francisco 49ers are much better than the Las Vegas Raiders. But that doesn’t mean Purdy will be someone you’re glad you started in fantasy.
The Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are a nothing funnel. You can’t throw on them, and you certainly can’t run on them.
San Francisco will probably find a way to win this game, but it will be ugly, low scoring, and involve a lot of defense. This is not the week to deploy Purdy.
Daniel Jones, QB, Indianapolis Colts (vs. HOU)
Even when it looks like Daniel Jones is about to come crashing back down, he finds a way to get it done. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback has not been as great over his past three games. Yet, he’s still managed to post at least 16.5 fantasy points in each of them. Jones has gone below 15.8 fantasy points just once this season…but he’s yet to face the Houston Texans.
It’s the NFL. Anything can happen. Jones could go out there and throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, and we’d chalk it up to “That’s football.” But it’s certainly not likely.
The Texans allow the second fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are the only defense in the league that has not surrendered a single QB1 performance this season. Did you see what they did to Josh Allen last week?
This defense is terrifying, and fantasy managers should be justifiably afraid of starting anyone against it. Jones cannot be in Week 13 lineups with playoff spots on the line.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Aaron Jones Sr., RB, Minnesota Vikings (at SEA)
The reality is anything Vikings could go in this section. Fire this entire offense into the sun.
Kevin O’Connell was able to make it work with the likes of Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall. He is supposedly the QB whisperer. But even he can’t make lemonade out of whatever J.J. McCarthy is. Unfortunately, that drags the entire offense down.
Aaron Jones Sr. has completely retaken control of this backfield. He’s now played at least 65% of the snaps in three straight games. But what is he supposed to do on an offense that can’t move the ball?
Now, Jones has to contend with a Seahawks defense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
This is a pass funnel defense. In theory, Minnesota should throw the ball more to try to beat them. But we know they don’t want to do that with McCarthy. So, the Vikings will try and pound it into Seattle’s stout front seven, and it will not work. Expect a whole lot of empty volume for Jones this week.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (vs. HOU)
As is often the case, if we’re sitting a team’s quarterback, we probably don’t like that team’s wide receivers, either.
Alec Pierce’s miracle run came to a screeching halt against the Chiefs last week. He saw two targets, catching one for 31 yards. Pierce had previously hit 14.8 fantasy points or more in three of his last four.
Things are not about to get better this week against what sure looks like the best defense in football.
The Texans allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They are especially dominant at defending the outside, with Derek Stingley Jr. locking down opposing flankers.
It’s possible that Michael Pittman Jr. is the one who gets blanketed, funneling more targets Pierce’s way. However, the Colts move Pittman around in the formation much more than Pierce, who has lined up in the slot about 13% of the time this season (Pittman is closer to 30%). Unless Pierce catches a long one, we’re probably looking at another low output.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons (at NYJ)
Darnel Mooney was elevated to the Atlanta Falcons’ WR1 position last week. He responded by posting his best game of the season with 16.4 fantasy points. So that’s it. Mooney is a weekly WR2 for as long as Drake London is out, right? Not quite.
The reality is that nothing really changed for Mooney. If anything, his performance provided reason for more pessimism going forward.
London wants to return this week, but I am skeptical that he will be able to. If he doesn’t, fantasy managers may consider Mooney a worthwhile start once again. I would caution against chasing the points.
Without London in the lineup, Mooney still only saw three targets. He was stuck on two receptions for 25 yards until Kirk Cousins found him on a deep post for a 49-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Without that flukey big play, it would’ve been more of the same for Mooney.
This is not a great matchup, either. The New York Jets allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Additionally, we have game script concerns. The Falcons want to run the ball as much as possible, and the Jets aren’t exactly the type of offense that can force them out of their game plan. Mooney will once again need a splash play to succeed.
Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears (at PHI)
Colston Loveland is coming off his second-best performance of the season. Against the Steelers, the Chicago Bears’ rookie tight end posted 14.9 fantasy points. We take that all day from any tight end. But if not for a touchdown, it would’ve been another disappointing effort.
While Loveland has overtaken Cole Kmet as the primary TE, the two are still splitting time. Loveland only ran a route on 68% of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks.
The rookie has now seen more than five targets in a game just once all season. Unsurprisingly, that came in the one game Kmet missed.
Loveland is still a viable fantasy tight end alongside Kmet. He’s just going to be far more sensitive to the matchup. And this is not a good one.
The Eagles allow the second fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Chicago is going on the road in a hostile environment to take on a team coming off a dreadful second-half collapse in a defeat to their division rival. It’s a really bad spot for a team coming off a big win and a great performance. Expect a dud from Loveland this week.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (vs. NYG)
In general, we want to attack this New York Giants defense. They are not very good. But there are a couple of reasons to hesitate before reinserting Hunter Henry into lineups.
It’s easy to look at what Henry did last week and go right back to him. How do you bench someone who just caught seven passes for 115 yards and a touchdown at fantasy’s weakest position?
Every tight end destroys the Bengals. That is not the case against the Giants, who have actually been pretty solid against the position. New York is allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. They just fired their defensive coordinator, which typically leads to at least a mild improvement in the next game. Plus, the Giants are terrible against every other position.
Drake Maye should be able to feed his wide receivers in this one. Plus, we’ll get a heavy dose of TreVeyon Henderson. Henry may be left fighting for scraps.
