Two years ago, Baker Mayfield was one of the best values in all of fantasy football. Arguably a league-winning pick. Last year, everything came crashing down for both Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So, which is it? Who is the real Mayfield? The answer may be simpler than you think.
Should You Draft Baker Mayfield in Fantasy Football?
Mayfield took quite a while to gain his footing. He boasts a career path that we’d truly never seen before for a No. 1 overall pick.
After bursting onto the scene as a rookie taking over for Tyrod Taylor, Mayfield was never quite able to replicate his success. He played out his time in Cleveland and then bounced around as a backup across multiple teams before that fateful start for the Rams in 2022 on only a few days’ notice put him back on the map. Mayfield got a chance to prove it for one year in Tampa Bay in 2023…and he did.
Now, there’s no denying Mayfield is one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the world. His status as a starter is not in doubt. Even after last year’s struggles, no one is questioning whether the Bucs should replace him. But should fantasy managers? Different question.
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In 2024, Mayfield was the QB4, averaging a career-best 21.5 fantasy points per game. This performance sent his fantasy value skyrocketing. It was a rare case of the modern fantasy community not properly contextualizing a player.
During the 2000s and 2010s, the fantasy community would be very reactionary. If a player smashed unexpectedly, he would get hyped up draft boards the next year regardless of context. More recently, fantasy managers have grown wise to outlier seasons and become more skeptical of them. With Mayfield, the community was ready to buy in. Looking back on it, there were signs that the real Mayfield was not the elite player we saw in 2024.
Yes, Mayfield is better now than he was in Cleveland. But let’s assess his career as a whole. From 2018-2023, Mayfield averaged no better than 17.1 PPG (his rookie season). From 2019-2023, he topped out at 16.1 PPG. Then in 2024, Mayfield posted his 21.5 PPG season. In 2025, he went right back to 16.0 PPG. Let’s list this out for better visuals.
- 2018: 17.1 PPG
- 2019: 14.3 PPG
- 2020: 15.5 PPG
- 2021: 12.9 PPG
- 2022: 10.1 PPG
- 2023: 16.1 PPG
- 2024: 21.5 PPG
- 2025: 16.0 PPG
Which one looks like the outlier?
Everything about 2024 was screaming at us to fade Mayfield at his inflated price in 2025. He threw 41 touchdowns, 13 more than his previous career high. His 570 attempts were a career high. His 4,500 yards were a career high. Mayfield even saw a spike in rushing production that came out of nowhere.
After never averaging more than 10.3 rushing yards per game, Mayfield suddenly was at 22.5 in 2024. Ironically, that one actually stuck, as Mayfield replicated that number in 2025. Unfortunately, all of his passing numbers regressed to closer to career averages, and is how we should likely view Mayfield going forward.
Mayfield’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
The fact that Mayfield was the QB4 a mere two years ago and is now being drafted around QB20 immediately sends up signals that he could be a value. Based on the 2024 season, we know Mayfield has a QB1 season in him. Of course, he’s also never finished higher than QB17 in any other season. Suddenly, his low price tag makes much more sense.
We know the value of the elite quarterback, but it comes at a cost. Sacrificing that high-end running back or wide receiver is difficult to do in order to take a position that has capable players deep into fantasy drafts.
This year, there are a lot of QB2s with not just QB1 upside, but high QB1 upside. Is Mayfield one of them?
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The Bucs lost Mike Evans. Emeka Egbuka tailed off considerably over the second half of last season. He remains a bit of a wild card heading into year two. Chris Godwin is still reliable, but he’s 30 years old coming off the worst season of his career and has overcome a lot of injuries.
Todd Bowles is still the head coach, which is never a positive. However, they did hire Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator. He hails from the Sean McVay coaching tree and can’t possibly be worse than Josh Grizzard. This is a welcome development.
Ultimately, Mayfield is a viable QB2 in Superflex formats, but not someone who should be drafted in single QB leagues. He checks in at QB21 in our consensus rankings.
Mayfield will undoubtedly make multiple appearances on the streaming radar this season. Perhaps he can even work his way into being someone worth rostering. But heading into 2026 fantasy drafts, there’s no reason for managers to take someone this far down the rankings.
Mayfield’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
Mayfield has been around for a while, but is still only 31 years old. While he’s run more in recent years, he still is more of a traditional pocket passer who is not at risk of declining in his early 30s. Mayfield should be able to play at whatever a high level is for him for at least another half-decade.
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Despite the general pessimism regarding his redraft value, Mayfield makes for an intriguing buy in dynasty leagues. We have him at QB19, which is a pretty solid spot in Superflex formats. Given the lack of excitement around him, Mayfield may be more acquirable than you might think.
If your dynasty roster is in need of a quarterback who you know is very likely to remain a starter for another 5-7 years, Mayfield is the last guy on the list who qualifies. Everyone ranked below him is either closer to the end or not a lock to be a starter in 2-3 years.
