Expectations are always sky-high for No. 1 overall picks. Kyler Murray has obviously fallen well short of expectations for the Arizona Cardinals, hence their decision to move on from him. But does that mean fantasy football managers should, too? Perhaps not so fast.
Should You Draft Kyler Murray in Fantasy Football?
It’s completely understandable why the Arizona Cardinals moved on from Murray. Sometimes, both player and team need to start fresh. Murray had run his course in Arizona after spending his first seven seasons there and leading the team to just one playoff appearance.
A 38-48-1 record from the guy who was supposed to be the face of the franchise is not good any way you slice it. But there’s a difference between failing to perform as a No. 1 overall pick is expected to and being a bad quarterback unworthy of starting in the NFL.
The discourse seems to be that Murray shouldn’t be a starter. Is he ever going to end up being worthy of that No. 1 overall pick in 2019? Probably not. But is Murray one of the 32 best quarterbacks walking the planet right now? Absolutely.
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I fully expect Murray to win the QB battle with JJ McCarthy and, barring injury, to start all 17 games. He’s better. It’s not close. This is important because, in fantasy, we don’t want our QBs to be at risk of getting benched like 2025 Justin Fields.
When starting, Murray has really never been bad, which is why the negativity surrounding him in fantasy is baffling.
Last season, injury and the Cardinals quietly moving on from him midseason resulted in Murray averaging a career-worst 15.6 fantasy points per game in just five games played. In his six previous years, Murray finished as a QB1 in all of them, with his lowest PPG average a still respectable 17.5 in 2024.
We have seen truly elite QB1 numbers from Murray before. He averaged 23.7 PPG in 2020 and 21.5 PPG in 2021.
Perhaps it’s not fair to say Murray still has that potential. However, in Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly scheme with a treasure trove of offense weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings, the pieces are in place for a big-time rebound.
Murray still has plenty to offer via rushing. He averages 36.7 rushing yards per game. While he’s probably never getting to 11 rushing TDs again as he did in 2020, Murray can chip in with 4-6, especially now that he’s on a better offense with a better coaching staff.
As long as Murray stays healthy, a top 12 finish seems probable.
Murray’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spent premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but being more predictable year over year.
For a while, Murray was in that phylum. Despite him falling out of it in recent years, the mobility he offers kept his fantasy floor at a level that made him viable in fantasy. Now, he finds himself playing for a coach who turned Sam Darnold from likely headed to the UFL into a future Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
Murray isn’t being totally discarded. His QB17 ADP suggests fantasy managers are buying that he’s not quite as bad as he was last season. But a healthy Murray has never finished that low. He is being drafted below his floor.
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We have Murray ranked at QB17, but that is largely a product of the linear nature of rankings. The reality is there is a large group of quarterbacks in that mid-to-high QB2 range that all have a ton of vertical upside.
Elite, difference-making QBs matter. We know Josh Allen will provide that, but you have to pay for it. With Murray, we’ve seen him provide it before on multiple occasions. He’s obviously far less likely to reach those heights than someone like Allen or Lamar Jackson, but the price to find out is much cheaper.
As important as finding an elite QB is, it’s way more valuable if you can get that production without having to sacrifice the early-round RB or WR you would otherwise take. Waiting on QB is as viable as ever this season, and Murray’s name should be circled on draft boards as the guy to target.
Murray’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
This is definitely sort of a last chance for Murray. While the confidence that he beats out McCarthy may be there, if he somehow doesn’t, Murray instantly goes from a solid QB2 in dynasty to a mostly worthless asset. If this doesn’t work for Murray, he won’t be a starter in 2027. That risk may not be incredibly high, but it is there.
So, what to do with Murray in dynasty? The answer has to depend on what you believe. Trading Murray now only works if you truly think he will fail and be a backup in 2027. If you think he can make it work as a starter in Minnesota, then he will either get an extension after this season or get a job somewhere else.
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We have Murray at QB19. That may seem low, but long-term viability matters, and we cannot confidently say Murray is a lock to be a starter for the next 5+ years. At 29 years old, if he plays like vintage Murray, he should have a good 4-5 years left. But remember, rushing QBs decline much sooner than traditional pocket passers. Murray is very likely to be done by age 33/34. Therefore, he remains behind quarterbacks we think he’ll outproduce in fantasy in the short term purely because they have longer shelf lives.
