Week 1 of the NFL season brings crucial fantasy football decisions as managers evaluate new quarterback situations and their impact on skill position players. The New York Jets present an intriguing case study with their revamped offense facing a tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has consistently ranked among the league’s best units.
Fantasy owners must weigh the potential upside of talented players against a challenging matchup that could limit offensive production across the board.
Justin Fields, QB
Less than 12 months ago, the Steelers were an undefeated team, led through three weeks by Justin Fields and his 73.3% completion percentage. Now he’s on the other sideline, staring at his replacement, a man getting his driver’s license when Fields was born, in the eyes. Life comes at you fast, but the athletic Jet should have a chance to spread his wings for fantasy owners this season.
He opened the preseason with a TD drive against the Packers and finished with a scramble for six, which is the exact path he has to follow for us to sell ourselves.
Justin Fields 2024 highlights 🎯#Jets pic.twitter.com/kgmxpQkXGo
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) March 10, 2025
But maybe not in this matchup. Jalen Ramsey joined this roster during the offseason and should allow them to continue ramping up the aggression, something we saw them do as last season wore on (27th in blitz rate through eight weeks, eighth through the final 10).
Fields is just off my radar for this week, but I don’t expect that to last long, given that he was put on this planet to provide us with his skill set.
Breece Hall, RB
How often has a running back received 20 or more touches in a game started by Fields? Across 44 such games, it has happened 15 times. While many want to lower expectations for Breece Hall’s volume, history suggests that he will get enough opportunities to approach RB1 status if he is productive.
However, that is a larger conversation for the entire season. For this specific game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, his numbers will likely be in the low-end RB2 range. The Steelers have ranked as a top-12 defense for two consecutive seasons, and their offense is expected to control the clock, limiting the total number of possessions. Hall averaged just over 13 carries per game in 2024-25, a reasonable expectation for this matchup.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
His involvement in the passing game could boost his final ranking this week, but relying on that is a risk in an offense with a newly defined structure. For those playing the long game, Hall is a potential buy-low candidate after his Week 6 game against the Denver Broncos in London.
Garrett Wilson, WR
Fields-led offenses have averaged 3% fewer offensive plays per game during his career than the NFL norm, and I see no reason to think that’ll be different in 2025.
Low play volume and potentially limited pass accuracy are big reasons I have very few shares of Garrett Wilson this season. The Steelers were the second-best defense at getting off the field on third downs last season (35.3% opponent conversion rate, trailing only the Lions and part of Detroit’s success was impacted by the pressure their elite offense put on opponents, something that Pittsburgh didn’t exactly have access to. They profile themselves as a slow offense with Aaron Rodgers under center.
I’m not high on Wilson, but downgrading skill position players against Pittsburgh this year will be commonplace. That said, the raw talent is formidable to deny, and the target competition is borderline non-existent.
I’m not going in this direction in a DFS setting this week, and maybe not all season. In a season-long league, it’s unlikely that you have three receivers I prefer to New York’s WR1. My expectations aren’t high, though 7-9 targets for a player like this has a way of getting to a viable PPR number, even if it’s not the most aesthetically pleasing game.
