Both games feature an MVP finalist. Both games have a top-3 defense per the PFSN NFL Defense Impact. Every team has a skill position player that can break the slate.
And we’ve gathered here today to do the unthinkable: put our faith in Jarrett Stidham.
Sort of.
There is no shortage of top-heavy contests in the DFS streets this week and, at some level, you’re going to have to be comfortable being uncomfortable, so let’s get to it!
NFL Championship DFS Lineup: Stidham Single-Bullet Build
As I mentioned in my first read of this slate (Sam Darnold Could Crush Matthew Stafford Ownership: DFS Stack for NFL Championship Round), you have to start by telling a story and then differentiate how you get to those results.
QB | Jarrett Stidham (vs. NE)
RB | Kenneth Walker III (vs. LAR)
RB | Rhamondre Stevenson (at DEN)
WR | Puka Nacua (at SEA)
WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. LAR)
WR | Kyle Williams (at DEN)
TE | Colby Parkinson (at SEA)
Flex | Pat Bryant (vs. NE)
D/ST | New England Patriots (at DEN)
OK, so what story does this mash unit tell? At first blush, it may seem random, but hear me out.
Why Stidham Makes Sense at His Price
Let’s start with the first game of the day. This lineup is going the cheap route with Stidham, understanding that he doesn’t have to outproduce the other QBs on this slate, he just has to keep pace from a production-per-dollar-spent point of view.
DraftKings Pricing Difference
- Matthew Stafford: 28.6% more expensive than Stidham
- Drake Maye: 25% more expensive than Stidham
- Sam Darnold: 18.2% more expensive than Stidham
Typically, I like stacking up a QB with a WR in shootout environments, but with only two games to choose from, pickings are obviously slim. Bryant has the red “Q” next to his name after suffering a concussion last week, but with him a full go at Thursday’s practice, I’m happy to embrace some scared ownership numbers for those worried.
Every week is different, but the explosive rookie was targeted with each of Denver’s first three passes last week (3 catches for 32 yards), and that points to the trust that Sean Payton has in the pride of Illinois.
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“Trust” is going to be more important than ever with a backup QB, and if Christian Gonzalez is following Courtland Sutton around, we could be looking at opportunities off the hop again for Bryant.
I’m banking on volume, but more on splash play ability for a WR who averaged 15.3 yards per catch as a prep (18.2 in 2024). My story here isn’t that Stidham is going to dice up the Patriots, but that he is going to have to drop back more than he is being given credit for across the industry.
Patriots Defense and Rhamondre Stevenson Game Script
If Sutton does get the shadow treatment, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Bryant could lead this team in production among the pass catchers. In order for this story to hold up, New England has to get up, and how do they do that?
It could be a big defensive play that skews the game script while also putting the ball back in Stidham’s hands. It could be sacks that force quick punts.
Those options would work for this lineup. Rhamondre Stevenson has been the unquestioned lead back for the Patriots this postseason (61.7% snap share, 74.2% in first quarters if you want to narrow down the scope and grab the data prior to a brief absence last weekend with an eye injury), and any time where you get access to a featured RB in a positive game script, you like where you stand.
Kyle Williams Deep Shot Upside
The Kyle Williams punt play is made with thought, though there is no denying that you’re embracing all sorts of risk.
The rookie has an 18.6-yard aDOT this season (22.0 against the Texans last week in suboptimal conditions), and if we are going to take on the best defense in the league, why not do it with a player that has the potential to turn a single target into a profitable day?
This is where we start threading a thin needle. We need the Patriots to lead and score, but we can’t have Drake Maye lineups soar past us. In order for that to happen, we need the run game to have consistent success and thus limit the volume of passes thrown.
In a perfect world, which is what we are shooting for in a setup like this, we need to maximize this story. That doesn’t mean shutting out Maye; we need New England to score, but it does mean optimizing the seemingly inevitable deep pass.
Since 2000: 100+ Deep Passes, 120+ Deep Passer Rating, Under 25 Years Old
- 2019 Patrick Mahomes
- 2020 Patrick Mahomes
- 2025 Drake Maye
We know that Williams is going to run vertical, and we know that Maye is more than capable of hitting him in stride.
Again, this is an ultra-specific story to tell, but if we can get some spikes with the defense, volume from Stevenson, and a back-breaking play or two from Williams (remember, a 50-yard touchdown from Maye to Williams nets the receiver nearly twice as many DraftKings points as it does the QB, not to mention more of an impact on the yardage bonus equity front), the script is possible to have us sitting in a spot of power after the first game wraps.
The second game isn’t nearly as complicated. All signs point to this being the higher-scoring contest of the two, and if we connect the dots in Denver, I’m fine with swallowing chalk with two of the best receivers on the planet.
This is effectively a bet against Davante Adams, thinking that the veteran has worn down as the season has progressed and that his ultra-specific skill set can be picked up by Colby Parkinson.
We know that Puka Nacua is going to rack up the targets and yards: we need Parkinson to get the short touchdown should the opportunity be there, not Adams, and if that comes to pass, I think we basically have these offenses covered.
Kenneth Walker Without Charbonnet
There has been much written about the loss of Zach Charbonnet and the impact of it in terms of pass blocking. I buy that, but I also buy this coaching staff being well aware of the strengths of their players. Instead of asking Kenneth Walker to do what Charbonnet excels in, how about asking him to do more of what he himself excels in?
Walker looked great last week and has the type of versatile skill set that makes him a fantasy asset regardless of who you like to advance out of the NFC.
Salary Cap Flexibility From Game One
The reward for the differentiation in the first game is twofold. We can pay up for the projected starts in the second game, and we can do so without much concern about being duped.
The lineup above leaves $1,400 on the table. Would I do that on a Sunday that has 10+ games on the main slate? No.
The pricing in those spots is far too sharp to go that far off the script, but with just four teams in play and the game I most like to be goofy going first, we get the advantage of swinging a big stick late if we are able to rack up the points in a very specific way early!
