Last year, the Dallas Cowboys’ offense had to go half the season without Dak Prescott. Naturally, that hurt the passing game’s production. With a healthy Prescott and a consolidated passing attack, is tight end Jake Ferguson a prime late-round target for fantasy football managers?
Jake Ferguson Fantasy Outlook
In 2023, Ferguson took over as the Cowboys’ primary tight end after Dalton Schultz departed. Given how useful the Cowboys’ TE1 has been for fantasy over the years, fantasy managers made Ferguson a popular late-round dart throw. He rewarded them with 10.4 fantasy points per game, which was good for an overall TE10 finish.
When it comes to tight ends, 10 PPG is roughly the threshold for TE1 production. It is what we should view as replacement-level. You can find 10 PPG relatively easily via a late-round guy or streaming. Never pay up for 10 PPG.
That said, fantasy managers were optimistic about Ferguson continuing to progress in 2024, as the team lacked a reliable option in the passing game behind CeeDee Lamb. Even if we trusted an aging and declining Brandin Cooks as the WR2, Dak Prescott is more than capable of supporting three fantasy-relevant pass catchers.
Jake Ferguson propaganda pic.twitter.com/3BdSW0Gm9d
— SleeperCowboys (@SleeperCowboys) June 13, 2025
We learned a couple of things about Ferguson from last season. First, Prescott matters…a lot. Ferguson averaged his usual 10.2 PPG in seven games with his quarterback last season, but he was at a disastrous 5.3 PPG in the seven games without him.
Second, Ferguson may just be a replacement-level tight end. Even at his best, we’ve now seen him play basically 24 games as the Cowboys’ TE1 with Prescott, and he’s averaged just a hair over 10 PPG. We should not be upset about that production from a tight end, but we should never pay for it.
Last season, nine tight ends averaged between 8.9 and 11.1 PPG. Essentially, they are all the same. Therefore, if you can’t get a true difference maker at the position, you do not want to draft a replacement-level performer in the middle rounds. Just wait. This year, the guy you wait for could very well be Ferguson.
Despite a pretty significant track record of back-end TE1 production, Ferguson’s average draft position (ADP) is TE15. He’s behind guys like Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews, who were replacement-level TEs last season. He’s also behind Dalton Kincaid, who was unusable last season.
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Ferguson’s numbers last season were not nearly as bad as the PPG suggests. He saw a 16.9% target share and was targeted on 27.7% of his routes run. His usage was fine. The issue was spending half his season catching passes from Cooper Rush and Trey Lance.
With a healthy Prescott, Ferguson is a strong bet to outperform his ADP. While he’s unlikely to be a true needle-mover, the Cowboys’ offense should be good enough that there’s outlier touchdown potential here. At worst, you can get that back-end TE1 10 PPG for a price cheaper than other managers are paying.
I have Ferguson ranked as my TE14, and he will be my go-to late-round TE target this season.
Frank Ammirante’s Jake Ferguson Fantasy Projection
Jake Ferguson is an appealing late-round option at tight end. He’s just one year removed from putting up 71 catches for 761 receiving yards and five touchdowns. As the No. 3 option in what should be one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL, Ferguson is a nice value at his current cost.
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The best way to approach Ferguson is if you’re building a Cowboys stack in Best Ball. You can pair him with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and/or George Pickens. If it’s a redraft league, I’d only go with Ferguson in a deeper format where I have more bench spots to be able to roster two tight ends. Pairing him with a fellow cheap option with a strong track record, like Dallas Goedert, makes a lot of sense.
With that said, temper your expectations, as there’s not a high ceiling here. If Ferguson can repeat what he did in 2023, you should be happy with that production.
