The Jacksonville Jaguars enter their opening game with a matchup that creates tough start-or-sit dilemmas for fantasy football managers. While the opponent was vulnerable last season, the introduction of a new offensive coordinator and a crowded backfield brings significant uncertainty.
Making the right call on which players to trust in this Week 1 contest is crucial for getting your fantasy football season started on the right foot.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
The Trevor Lawrence hype picked up so much steam this preseason that ahead of a podcast appearance, I was asked for a “hot take, but please, make it something, anything, that doesn’t include Lawrence.”
I like Lawrence, but that kind of momentum at cost is a lot to live up to. On paper, this is a great spot, which may make him interesting in DFS circles. Given the optimism surrounding him, I can’t imagine the ownership projection getting to a point where I’m making that decision.
THIS TREVOR LAWRENCE THROW TO BTJ. IS ABSURD….
Releases it while Thomas is still behind multiple defenders, and throws it perfectly 10 yards in front of him.
😱
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) September 9, 2024
Carolina was the only defense with a sub-28% pressure rate a season ago (25.1%) in a league with an average of 33.8%. That’s a significant flaw and one that could allow Lawrence to do big things, given that his non-pressured average depth of throw jumped by two full yards last year when compared to 2023 (up 27.8%) in Year 1 with Brian Thomas Jr., and now he has Travis Hunter to threaten defenses uniquely.
I understand the optimism for this week and the season as a whole. He’s still not a top-12 QB for me in Week 1, and speaking holistically, I think I’ll be more interested in him when the projected game script tilts in favor of the passing game.
Bhayshul Tuten, RB
Let’s be honest: Jacksonville’s backfield was underwhelming last season, and there isn’t a lot of optimism for the Carolina Panthers’ defense to suddenly improve. While Tuten deserves to be rostered in all fantasy formats, his immediate role is unclear. With both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. touching the ball over 170 times in the 2024-25 season, it’s hard to project Tuten for more than eight to 10 touches in Week 1. That kind of volume isn’t worth the risk.
However, the rookie from Virginia Tech has potential. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season in college and ran for 10 or more scores in each of his final three collegiate seasons. There is something here, and he should get a chance to prove his value over time.
The best approach is to roster and hold him. There’s no reason to force Tuten into your lineup, especially with bye weeks still a month away. It’s possible that selecting Tuten in your draft will help you win a championship in January, but that doesn’t mean he should be on your fantasy radar for Week 1.
Tank Bigsby, RB
Do I think Bigsby enters the season as the lead back in Jacksonville? I do. He was the lesser of two evils in 2024, and Tuten’s fourth-round draft capital probably is not enough to vault him into a split workload from the jump.
Of course, not all lead backs deserve to be locked into fantasy lineups. This is one of those situations, despite the Panthers’ worst defense in the league, according to our Defense+ metric. The Jaguars’ ground attack should be successful in this spot, but the touch distribution has me worried. I am not taking on more risk than I need to in Week 1.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
It is possible that offensive coordinator Liam Coen sprinkles fantasy dust on this backfield and gifts us a single back who takes over, similar to Bucky Irving last season. While I am open to that idea, I am willing to be a week or two late on that prediction rather than too early.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
The good news is that you were not asked to spend much draft capital to get a piece of a Liam Coen offense that could level up in a major way.
The bad news is that you have a running back who has shown enough to tempt you into rolling the dice in this plus-matchup. The Panthers allowed 6.0 yards per play last season, the worst rate in the league. Even so, you cannot be sure what the touch count is going to look like.
Etienne Jr. was an unmitigated disaster last season; that much is hard to argue. Everything that is tempting you to play him in this spot builds just as strong a case in the other direction. The defense you want to target is the same one that Tank Bigsby and Bhatshul Tuten are running against.
If this is a three-man race to see who can impress the new coaching staff first in live action, there will likely be two losers. If there are two losers in a three-man competition, does that not mean you have greater odds of failing than of succeeding as a fantasy manager?
I am holding all members of this backfield and trusting none in Week 1.
Fantasy football is fun, isn’t it?
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Does Thomas Jr. see some natural regression in the target department during his second season? I’d say so. The Jags might compete at a higher level this year than last (seventh lowest ‘playing with a lead rate’), and the addition of Travis Hunter brings the risk of not only the pie getting smaller, but Thomas’ piece getting trimmed.
A little bit.
The fact is that BTJ was never going to replicate his elite volume from a season ago. Over the final six weeks of last season, Ja’Marr Chase and Thomas were the only receivers to earn 70+ targets and catch 45+ passes. That’s a pretty high bar to clear for a second consecutive season, especially with a new offensive mind at the controls.
I don’t see this being a problem. Thomas cleared fantasy expectations by 22.3% as a rookie, which speaks to the type of raw ability that can allow him to survive a minor drawback on the target count and continue to thrive despite it.
Thomas needs to repeat what we saw last season to crack the top tier at the position for me. He doesn’t need anywhere near that production level to be locked into fantasy lineups as a WR1, and the season opener is no different.
Travis Hunter, WR
What the Jags love about Hunter is what we hate. His ability to be used on both sides of the ball will be a projection hurdle that might smooth out in time. Still, given Jacksonville’s score/situation, it is also at risk of evolving within individual games.
But you knew that when you drafted Hunter and were willing to overlook it for the rare ability. I don’t blame you, and this is about as good a spot as you could ask for to make a splash in a professional debut.
Over the past two seasons, twice have we seen a defense blitz over 30% of the time and create pressure on under 30% of opponent dropbacks
- 2023 Panthers: 29.3% pressure rate and 32.9% blitz rate
- 2024 Panthers: 25.1% pressure rate and 30.1% blitz rate
Trevor Lawrence figures to have his time to throw, and the Panthers will likely shade coverage in the direction of Brian Thomas Jr. because … well, they watched football with the rest of us last season.
If I’m starting a rookie receiver to open this season, it’s Hunter over Tetairoa McMillan (also in this game) because I trust the infrastructure around him just a touch more. Both first-year wideouts are on the WR3/flex radar and carry plenty of potential into their professional debuts.
Maybe both go off, and this game shoots out significantly?
I think that’s within the range of outcomes. Keep in mind, however, that if that occurs, I will preach to sell high on both, barring something significant happening that changes my thought process: you don’t get ideal conditions and a soft matchup every week in the NFL.
