Fantasy football managers face crucial Week 1 decisions as the season kicks off with several intriguing player situations to navigate. The quarterback position presents both opportunity and uncertainty, while running back committees create challenging start-sit scenarios for lineup construction. Understanding matchup dynamics and target distributions will be essential for making the right fantasy football choices in your opening week lineups.
Russell Wilson, QB
17.5 points.
That’s not a high threshold. We are looking at roughly 240 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and no turnovers through the air alone. A good day, but nothing special, and that’s what it took to flirt with QB1 status a season ago.
In 2024, despite the superpowers of Malik Nabers and positive game scripts, how many times do you think a Giants QB reached that total with his arm alone?
Twice. It happened twice, and once was an out-of-body experience from Drew Lock.
Russell Wilson throws a deep ball that is as feathery as anyone in the sport. Even with his best days behind him, he led the NFL in deep passer rating a season ago (Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert rounded out the top 5, not bad company). This could be a spike spot for him in his Giant debut, given that Washington allowed deep touchdowns at the third-highest rate (10.5% of attempts) a season ago.
Russell Wilson did a beautiful job of identifying the coverage, looking the safety off away from the post to open up the throw even though it was 2 high and giving Calvin Austin a catchable ball in the snow for a TD. It’s all in the details. LOVE IT. pic.twitter.com/XS1vpzTv42
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) November 22, 2024
It could happen. But is the juice worth the squeeze? With no teams on a bye, the opportunity cost of looking in this direction is as great as it’ll be at any point this season, and I’m not sold that this matchup runs out as cleanly as you might think.
Washington ranked better than league average in yards allowed per deep pass while posting top-10 numbers in both yards per deep completion and time of possession.
Wilson might connect on a bomb or two, but with the rushing largely out of his profile (two games with more than 16 rushing yards in 2024), a learning curve to consider (remember when he had only three multi-pass TD games in his first season out of Seattle?), and the general understanding that New York wants an excuse to move onto Jaxson Dart: I’m going to need a lot more than one optimistic scoring metric from last season in this matchup to sell me on Wilson as a usable option in any format.
Cam Skattebo, RB
At Arizona State, Cam Skattebo proved he could do it all, finishing his career with 293 carries for 1,711 yards and 21 touchdowns, along with 45 catches for 605 yards and three scores. While Tyrone Tracy Jr. played well as a rookie for the New York Giants with 1,123 yards from scrimmage, this profile is a competition that could swing in either direction.
I expect Tracy to hold the edge in snaps and touches through September as a reward for his rookie performance, but the Giants spent more draft capital on the former Sun Devil. Skattebo’s style of play has the potential to earn him work quickly.
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It is difficult to feel good about flexing him against the Washington Commanders without knowing what his touch count will look like. However, for a team that could easily go winless through September, I would be shocked if we do not see Skattebo’s usage ramp up in short order. Many fantasy managers are reactionary, and this is a spot where you can take advantage of that. The rookie will not change, barring an injury during the season opener.
If this is the Tracy show out of the gates, you could be looking at a cheap buying window that could pay off in the long term, perhaps just in time for a fantasy Super Bowl matchup in Las Vegas as New York plays out a likely lost season.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB
I’m not sure a fifth-round pick who totaled over 1,100 scrimmage yards as a rookie has ever been shown less respect than Tracy. His performance may not have jumped off the screen in 2024, but his season was more than anyone could have reasonably expected, considering his team’s context.
Now, after the team spent a fourth-round pick on another running back, the fantasy community seems to be done with Tracy. I understand that Skattebo has a gritty, workhorse profile and could prove to be a bargain, but he is not Ashton Jeanty, and this is not the Raiders’ backfield.
A hamstring injury during camp tempered some of the expectations and forced the industry to put more respect on Tracy’s name. In the short term, that seems wise. He profiles as the lead back for an offense that will try to sustain drives and play defense with its running game. It’s far from a bulletproof plan in 2025 and isn’t likely to work against the high-flying Commanders.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the industry thought more of Tracy after Week 1 than it does now. Based on ADP, you drafted at least two backs ahead of him, meaning you are not committing to him this week, and I think that’s the right call. However, if you went with a zero-RB build, this is exactly the type of back you want early in the season, especially against a run defense that was the fifth-worst on a per-carry basis a season ago.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR
Wan’Dale Robinson was WR11 last season in terms of PPG on short passes (9.1, ahead of names you know like CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, and Brian Thomas Jr.), and the preseason usage of Jaxson Dart suggests that he’ll be relying on his teammates to rack up the YAC whenever he gets the chance.
This is more of a long-term sales pitch on Robinson than a short-term one. You’re probably unable to play a slot merchant when your roster is at full strength, but rostering a high-floor player like this is good.
If you want to get cute in DFS, Robinson makes for an interesting click at a low ownership number. Washington blitzed at the sixth highest rate last season (32% of opponent dropbacks), so if there is ever going to be a spot where this offense features the short passing game, this could well be the spot (he did score against them last season and had a pair of double digit catch efforts – it’s not flashy upside, but if they chose to highlight his role, there’s a chance to mine some cheap value).
Malik Nabers, WR
It’s easy to fall in love with Nabers’s talent, and just as easy to fret about the QB situation that awaits him this season. That said, he spent last season proving to us that the former trumps the latter, and there’s no real reason to think this season will be any different.
During his standout rookie campaign, Nabers earned 29 targets on 55 routes against the Commanders (19 catches for 186 yards and a score). I was taking Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. over him this summer, but don’t take that as me suggesting that you should do anything crazy this week.
Or any week.
Malik Nabers v. Commanders 10 catches 127 yards 1 TD
5 catches 59 yards 1 TD on 3rd/4th down pic.twitter.com/BEg5r9PGVD
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) September 16, 2024
Nabers is the real deal and on the short list of receivers that, in four months, could be considered a Tier 1 option at the position. You’re playing him every week. My larger concern for those with Nabers rostered is that his production is a bit front-loaded this season, during the Wilson days under center.
We can cross that bridge when we get to it. Still, there’s a real chance that Nabers’ name pops up on my sell-high radar in early October, understanding that, if productive, he’ll return a haul in a deal and position you better for when all of the chips are in the middle of the table.
