George Pickens was a popular breakout candidate last season after transitioning from the fantasy-unfriendly Pittsburgh Steelers offense to the explosive Dallas Cowboys offense. Sometimes, things work out exactly as planned. Now entering year two of the Brian Schottenheimer era and with an increased price tag, can Pickens exceed fantasy managers’ expectations once again?
Should You Draft George Pickens in Fantasy Football?
From the moment he was drafted, Pickens had a very high ceiling. Even though he was a second-round pick in the NFL Draft, Pickens was considered a first-round talent. He fell because of an injury and off-the-field concerns.
During his time in Pittsburgh, Pickens certainly had his fair share of issues. He had focus and attitude problems at times. Granted, those things may have stemmed from the 1970s run-heavy offense the Steelers ran. But nonetheless, Pickens was very clearly never going to realize his potential in Pittsburgh.
When Pickens was traded to Dallas, expectations instantly rose. His ADP was undoubtedly higher last season than it would’ve been had he remained a Steeler. But it still didn’t rise to the level at which Pickens would perform.
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Over his first three NFL seasons, Pickens never averaged more than 12.3 fantasy points per game. In his first year in Dallas, he averaged 17.2 PPG, finishing as the overall WR6.
It wasn’t a fluke, either. Pickens averaged 2.4 yards per route run, 12th in the league, and 0.123 first downs per route run, ninth in the league. He was also one of the most effective receivers after the catch, ranking second in the league in evaded tackles per touch.
While Pickens’ total numbers were obviously great, he did benefit from three games without CeeDee Lamb. In four games where Lamb failed to play at least 10 snaps, Pickens averaged a staggering 24.2 PPG. Of course, Pickens was better when he was the clear WR1. But it’s not as if he was bad when playing alongside Lamb. Pickens still averaged 15.9 PPG with Lamb on the field. Those are WR1 numbers.
With another year of experience in the Cowboys’ offense and an improved rapport with Dak Prescott, there’s no reason to think Pickens can’t at least match his fantasy production with Lamb from last season.
Pickens’ Redraft Fantasy Football Value
Last year, Pickens was one of the best values in fantasy. This year, he will have to take another step forward to justify his cost.
Pickens’ ADP sits at WR10. He is going around the 2/3 turn, which is a premium pick in fantasy drafts. Anything short of 16 PPG would be a disappointment. Here’s why fantasy managers should not be concerned and, if anything, be bullish.
Pickens is incredibly talented. There is a world where he and Lamb are more 1a/1b than Lamb being the 1 and Pickens the 2. Would it truly be shocking if Pickens outscored Lamb this season? That’s in his range of outcomes.
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There’s also the upside that exists in the event of a Lamb injury. Pickens only saw a 22.6% target share last season and was targeted on just 23% of his routes run. Both of those numbers have room to grow regardless of Lamb’s health or performance.
The Cowboys were seventh in the league in scoring last season. That’s quite high, but we’ve seen this offense be in the top three multiple times before. An improvement from the team across the board would also benefit Pickens’ fantasy stock.
It’s really hard to see how Pickens completely fails. At worst, he will likely be a small miss. But if things break right, he could push 20 PPG. We know this because we’ve seen it. Pickens is my WR11 and well worth selecting at the 2/3 turn.
Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings
- Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
- Puka Nacua | LAR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- Drake London | ATL
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- George Pickens | DAL
- Chris Olave | NO
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Zay Flowers | BAL
- Jaylen Waddle | DEN
- Tee Higgins | CIN
- DeVonta Smith | PHI
- Ladd McConkey | LAC
- Terry McLaurin | WAS
- Emeka Egbuka | TB
- Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
- Garrett Wilson | NYJ
- Jameson Williams | DET
- Christian Watson | GB
- Luther Burden III | CHI
- Rome Odunze | CHI
- Parker Washington | JAX
- Carnell Tate | TEN
- DJ Moore | BUF
- Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
- Davante Adams | LAR
- Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
- Quentin Johnston | LAC
- Mike Evans | SF
- Stefon Diggs | WAS
- Michael Wilson | ARI
- DK Metcalf | PIT
- Jakobi Meyers | JAX
- Josh Downs | IND
- Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
- Jayden Reed | GB
- Courtland Sutton | DEN
- Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
- Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
- Alec Pierce | IND
- Makai Lemon | PHI
- Jordan Addison | MIN
- De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
- Khalil Shakir | BUF
- Romeo Doubs | NE
