Fantasy football drafts present countless dilemmas throughout the selection process. Those dilemmas become even more anxiety-inducing when you’re on the clock, making it smart to get an idea of player values ahead of time.
This year, the perennially underrated Arizona Cardinals rusher James Conner and dominant Detroit Lions power back David Montgomery are being taken close to each other in fantasy drafts. Both players should be expected to put up rock-solid production in 2025, but who’s the better pick in drafts?
James Conner’s 2025 Fantasy Outlook
Conner is currently being drafted as the RB21 in fantasy, despite having finished higher than that in each of the past four seasons. The Cardinals’ workhorse also played more games (16) in 2024 than in any of the previous seven campaigns, allaying fears of an age-related dip in production.
James Conner carries the Cardinals into field goal range!
📺: #LACvsAZ on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/Sqca8H41jo
— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2024
Now 30 years old, the eighth-year veteran’s RB10 overall finish in 2024 could represent Conner’s ceiling moving forward. His floor, though, remains solid as ever.
The Cardinals rewarded Conner with a two-year, $19 million extension in November 2024, making him their clear RB1 for the foreseeable future.
The main concern with him remains injuries. The 2024 campaign marked the first time Conner had played 16 games since his career began, after managing just 13 in each of the two previous years. In the event of an injury to Conner, 2024 third-round pick Trey Benson would be in line to take over rushing duties.
Benson is available around the 12th and 13th rounds of 1QB drafts, making Conner a relatively inexpensive player to insure. This handcuff strategy provides additional peace of mind for fantasy managers targeting Conner.
David Montgomery’s 2025 Fantasy Outlook
Montgomery is another player who has outperformed his current ADP in recent years, but significantly more has changed for the Detroit bruiser this offseason. Former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is now the head coach of the Chicago Bears, while the Lions lost two experienced offensive linemen in Kevin Zeitler (signed with Tennessee Titans) and Frank Ragnow (retired in June 2025).
Montgomery has enjoyed a snap share of at least 60% over his two years in Detroit, despite the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs. There was, though, a noticeable shift in rushing opportunities during Gibbs’ second season as a pro. The young second-year playmaker’s carries increased from 182 to 250 in Year 2, while Montgomery’s dropped from 219 to 185.
DAVID MONTGOMERY IS A BEAST.
📺: #SEAvsDET on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/OiTpKUNzPB— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2024
If that trend continues, or if new offensive coordinator John Morton decides to feature Gibbs as the alpha running back, Montgomery’s fantasy impact would suffer severely. The powerful sixth-year veteran has more than proven his worth on the field and in fantasy, though, and should be a solid Flex option at the very least in 2025.
Should I Draft Conner or Montgomery in 2025?
These two running backs are going around each other in drafts for good reason, having been 0.2 fantasy points per game apart in 2024. Montgomery has Gibbs working against him, while Conner’s age and injury history are deflating his popularity in drafts.
If all goes as expected in 2025, the two players will likely not be far apart by the end of the year. So, how do we split the two ahead of the season?
For players looking for a safer floor, Conner represents the better option, thanks to his clear starting role and the insurance you can draft with Benson in the late rounds.
Montgomery’s outlook for 2025 contains more uncertainty, while an injury would hand Gibbs additional work. That leaves you needing to invest in a third early-mid-round running back, pay up in a mid-season trade, or hope to get lucky on the waiver wire.
MORE: PFSN Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator!
If you want the opportunity for explosive upside, though, the same applies if Gibbs were to get injured, only in reverse. Most of Gibbs’ work would be passed over to Montgomery, likely making him a top-10 fantasy RB, with weekly top-five upside. Gibbs has an impressive health record and is still young, but football is football.
Both Montgomery and Conner are being drafted around Round 6 in 1QB drafts. And after Round 7, the RB position thins out significantly. Keep that in mind when drafting either player, but doubling down in Round 7 would be exceptionally sensible if taking Montgomery as your RB2.
