This time in the offseason is the peak time of year for dynasty fantasy football. Free agents have been signed, rookies have been drafted to new teams, we’ve seen minicamp highlights, and preseason football is just around the corner.
Many leagues will hold their rookie drafts in the coming weeks before the 2025 season, which also marks the peak time for making big trades in dynasty leagues to either establish your team as a contender or start the process of acquiring rookie picks and young players for the future.
Two players with diverging paths in dynasty are the Detroit Lions’ running backs: David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Should fantasy managers make a trade involving either player before the 2025 season? We’ve run the numbers and compared the situations both rushers encounter entering training camp.
Should Fantasy Managers Trade Away David Montgomery?
Few running backs have been more reliable than Montgomery since he was drafted in 2019. Since entering the NFL, Montgomery has averaged 220 carries for 900 yards and 8.5 rushing touchdowns per season. He’s also added 43 targets, 34.5 receptions, and 283 receiving yards per year.
That steady production has turned Montgomery into a reliable fantasy producer. He’s been a top-30 running back in PPR scoring in five of his six career seasons. He also posted a top-10 finish in 2020 (RB8) and has been a top-20 back in his two seasons with the Lions.
Last season, David Montgomery was second in the NFL averaging 3.3 receptions per broken tackle in the passing game.
This was also the second best single season mark since 2018 when they began tracking receptions/broken tackle (Minimum 30 receptions).
Per: Pro Football Reference pic.twitter.com/gZmsybNAMJ
— Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) May 9, 2025
Since joining Detroit, Montgomery has 404 carries for 1,790 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding 52 receptions for 458 yards in 28 games. He’s managed to be a consistent RB2 in fantasy despite sharing a backfield with Gibbs, thanks to an absurdly high 6.2% touchdown rate on carries the past two seasons.
However, Montgomery is also reaching an age (28) where we start to see running backs break down. That leaves dynasty managers in a place where they have a dependable RB but need to start preparing for him to slow down.
Additionally, Detroit’s offense is expected to look different in 2025. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left the Lions this offseason to become the head coach of the Chicago Bears. As a result, Detroit hired John Morton as its new OC, bringing a fresh perspective to the unit.
Meanwhile, right guard Kevin Zeitler departed in free agency, signing with the Tennessee Titans. But most significantly, center Frank Ragnow announced his retirement in June, citing health concerns. The Lions’ offensive line is still full of talent, but for the first time in a while, we have more questions than answers on the unit.
Since the beginning of May, Montgomery has owned the third-highest trade-away rate among PFSN trade analyzer users. Logically, that makes perfect sense. The fact is, Montgomery is getting older, has missed games with injuries during his time in Detroit, and is competing with a younger and far more explosive running back in the backfield (Gibbs).
Many fantasy managers will ignore the impending age cliff thanks to his offensive environment and ability to perform when healthy in 2024 (Montgomery averaged 16.5 PPR PPG — RB11 — before getting injured last season). Many will also dream of Montgomery’s production if Gibbs misses a significant amount of time with an injury.
If you roster Montgomery, now may be the ideal time to explore trades for the veteran running back. His TD production has led to strong fantasy performances in Detroit, effectively masking the fact that he’s missed six games over the last two seasons. That won’t get better as he ages.
It’s better to be early than late moving off running backs in dynasty, and unless you are a contender who needs Montgomery’s consistent floor, it’s time to explore trading him. In most cases, he won’t return a first-round pick, but Montgomery can certainly bring back multiple second-round picks or a younger RB and a rookie pick.
Should Fantasy Managers Trade for Jahmyr Gibbs?
Since May, Gibbs has been one of the 20 most acquired players on the PFSN trade analyzer. That is even more impressive, considering how much it would take to obtain the dynamic young running back.
Since the Lions drafted Gibbs in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, he’s handled 432 carries for 2,357 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding 104 receptions (on 134 targets) for 833 yards and five receiving scores. As a rookie, he finished as the RB8 in PPR points per game (16.1) and was the RB2 (21.3) in his second season.
Gibbs has established himself as a top-10 fantasy RB despite never playing in more than 60% of Detroit’s offensive snaps in a season. The Lions have been committed to running a split backfield between Gibbs and Montgomery. Nevertheless, we’ve seen glimpses of just how good Gibbs can be if he were to be given the entire share of Detroit’s backfield touches.
In 30 career games with Montgomery healthy, Gibbs averages 11.9 carries for 64.7 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. He also adds 4.3 targets for 3.1 receptions and 24.6 receiving yards. Gibbs has produced 17.4 PPR points per game in that split on just 15 touches per game.
Meanwhile, we’ve seen six games where Gibbs has had the backfield to himself. In those contests, he averages 19.7 carries for 110.8 yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns while adding 5.2 targets, 4.2 receptions, and 36.5 receiving yards. Gibbs’ fantasy production also spikes to 27.4 PPR points per game.
Jahmyr Gibbs with a massive touchdown to get to 26.3 fantasy points!!!
Anyone just win their championship?! pic.twitter.com/vpdAlL9L7d
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 31, 2024
Montgomery isn’t going anywhere, which does cap Gibbs’ ability to produce consistently high-end fantasy production. However, he’s proven to be a top-10 running back despite splitting the backfield.
The distribution of touches in Detroit’s backfield could also shift in 2025 with Morton now calling the plays, potentially opening more opportunities for the explosive second-year back.
By all accounts, Gibbs should be untouchable in fantasy football. He just turned 23 and has two top-10 RB finishes despite sharing a backfield with a steady veteran who dominates touches inside the 5-yard line.
If a fantasy manager in your league is considering trading Gibbs, he’s worth acquiring regardless of the price. The young Detroit RB hasn’t even hit his prime and is already one of the most explosive weapons in the NFL. He’s a cornerstone piece for any dynasty lineup for the foreseeable future.
