The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Atlanta Falcons players heading into their matchup with the Miami Dolphins to help you craft a winning lineup.
Michael Penix Jr., QB
A bone bruise on his foot has saddled Penix with a day-to-day designation — hopefully you’re not losing sleep over it. The second-year QB has just one multi-TD pass effort this season, and given that it is very possible that Atlanta asks him to do very little in a game they should control, it’s hard to find much upside in this profile.
The 21 rushing yards in Week 1 against the Bucs piqued my interest, but with just 22 since, it’s become obvious that was nothing more than a flash in the pan.
Penix is concentrating his targets at a high level, so we want him in there for our Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts shares, but he himself offers little of interest in the fantasy space.
Bijan Robinson, RB
If it weren’t for Christian McCaffrey existing, what Bijan Robinson is doing would be the topic of even more stories. He’s pacing to be the rare 5+ YPC and 5+ receptions per game player, proving himself as one of the most script-proof backs in recent memory.
Nothing against Rico Dowdle (32.4 PPR points against the Dolphins), Kimani Vidal (22.8), or Quinshon Judkins (26.4), but none of them are in the same zip code as Robinson. They all had their way with this fading franchise, and that puts Robinson in a position to do special things.
He’s my RB1 for Week 8, and if the Falcons want to make a statement for their best player, this could be a crowning moment on a historic season.
Tyler Allgeier, RB
Tyler Allgeier has been unable to carve out a viable niche in this offense, and given the success rate of Bijan Robinson, Atlanta’s RB2 is a handcuff and nothing more.
There’s nothing wrong with that. He has a clear-cut path to fantasy viability, and that’s not the case for the majority of backfields in the NFL. We can address the team concerns should this situation come to light (Atlanta ranks 26th in running back yards gained before contact, leading to the thought that Robinson’s success has more to do with his talent than his situation), but for now, he’s a nice depth piece that holds no standalone value.
Drake London, WR
That’s now three straight games with double-digit targets for Drake London, the return of Darnell Mooney not really impacting his usage last week in the loss to the 49ers.
The value of his opportunities is up for debate, with Michael Penix struggling to find consistency in his first season as the leader of this offense. Still, I’m happy to gamble on this target/talent combination every single week, regardless of the matchup.
Miami has allowed a WR to reach 20 PPR points in three of seven weeks, a major weakness given that they haven’t exactly played a murderers’ row of opponents. London has cleared 15 expected points in every game this month, and I expect him to more than pay off his opportunities in this spot.
London is a Tier 1 receiver for me this week, checking in as my WR5.
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE
Kyle Pitts set a season high with 10 targets against the 49ers on Sunday night, and I think it was a pretty important performance.
- 2021: 11.2 aDOT
- 2022: 13.7 aDOT
- 2023: 12.0 aDOT
- 2024: 8.7 aDOT
- 2025: 5.8 aDOT
Through the first six weeks of this season (five games), Atlanta had seemingly given up on using Pitts as this weird hybrid WR/TE thing and embraced a limited route tree.
Get the ball in the hands of our super-athletes and let the chips fall.
I’m a fan of this plan, but we saw some branching out last week. His 8.6 aDOT was a season high and resulted in him recording more than double his air-yardage output in any other game this season.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 8 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Was it a one-off?
Maybe.
Are they working on finding a sweet spot that actually works for what Pitts brings to the table and where Michael Penix is comfortable?
It’s at least possible.
If you were encouraged like I was, this might be your last chance to buy. Matchups against the Dolphins have a way of elevating everyone involved, and that means you may have to pay an even greater premium this time next week.
The Falcons don’t have a single game in December that projects as a weather threat, and they still have games against the Panthers and Saints on the books before then. Paying market value for Pitts right now is an acceptable move, and one that I prefer over trying to band-aid the position together for the remainder of the season.
