The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Philadelphia Eagles players heading into their matchup with the New York Giants to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jalen Hurts, QB
Jalen Hurts played a game as if he rostered himself in fantasy, and that’s what we love to see.
There was an early pick-six, which raised game-script concerns, but the Vikings battled, which helped all parties involved.
Hurts threw for a season high of 326 yards, his third straight contest with at least 280. The numbers are one thing, but the “how” behind them was what had a stupid grin on my face.
- 68.4% completions
- 73.9% targets
- 93.3% receiving yards
Those are the combined shares of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown in Week 7. That’s how it’s done.
We aren’t under the assumption that Hurts is going to be Joe Flacco and fire 45+ passes, but if the passes he does throw are aimed at his top two targets, then he’s in the conversation for the best in the game at the position.
He’ll be awfully popular in the DFS streets this week (six teams on a bye, not to mention Patrick Mahomes doing battle off the main slate), and I’m not sure that’s wrong.
Saquon Barkley, RB
Right now, at his current pace, Saquon Barkley needs to average a tick over 50 carries per week to repeat his rushing yardage total from 2024.
I think we can safely rule that one out and chalk one up for regression.
Other than fancy math, there are obvious reasons for his lack of success on the ground. His yards per carry before first contact have dipped from 2.64 a season ago to 0.87 this year, and I don’t care how much talent a player has; that sort of drop is going to come with production problems.
His red zone touch count is also down from 3.9 per game to 2.6, a less obvious hindrance, as you’d assume that with fewer home run plays, there would be more scoring chances in tight.
Not the case.
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He’s running into loaded boxes slightly more often, and that certainly has something to do with it, but this is looking more like New York Saquon than anything.
- 2025 Profile: 90.9% of expected points, 0.49 points per carry, 19.0 touches per game
- 2021-23 Profile: 95.8% of expected points, 0.56 points per carry, 19.6 touches per game
That’s concerning, and if last week was an indicator of any kind, defenses are happy to make Hurts beat them through the air.
If he continues to do it at the rate he did over the weekend, maybe things loosen up and we get a top-five RB the rest of the way. But as things stand right now, it’s hard to expect that sort of production to reemerge.
Barkley is one of the best in the game in terms of raw talent, so there are likely to be splash games. That said, I do think it’s fair to adjust your reference point: he’s a high-end RB2 on a week-to-week basis (when there aren’t six teams on a bye) more than he is a back who poses a real threat to crack the top spot at the position.
He’s still a lineup lock, and this offense remains good enough to elevate him even if the efficiency isn’t close to what we had hoped. But if you’re circling the trade machine and looking to acquire the former All-Pro, I’d be careful: this advanced profile doesn’t suggest that 2024 numbers are coming back any time soon.
A.J. Brown, WR
The Eagles are leaning into Brown’s physical profile, and while the lack of volume is a pain, at least he’s getting targets that let him produce top-10 numbers at the position.
- Weeks 1-2: 7.2 aDOT, 11.1% deep target rate
- Weeks 3-7: 13.2 aDOT, 26.2% deep target rate
Those bombs aren’t always going to connect the way they did in Minnesota over the weekend, but I’m more comfortable betting on this profile than what we saw to open the season.
The most encouraging part of Week 7 wasn’t the final stat line; it was the first touchdown. With Hurts on the move, Brown released downfield, and the pass was delivered on time and on the money.
That level of non-verbal communication makes for an almost impossible tandem to defend, one that can go on a serious run. There’s meat left on this bone (four straight games without an end zone target), and with him having earned a 28.3% target share two weeks ago against these Giants, I’m confident we get a second straight top 10 performance.
DeVonta Smith, WR
An early touchdown to Brown and a pick-6 had Week 7 lining up as a bust week for Smith.
Not the case.
Philadelphia’s offense stalled enough in the middle third of the game to allow the Vikings to stay tight and thus keep the passing game in play. Their pressure-oriented scheme left both Eagle receivers on islands at times, and man, did they take advantage.
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Smith turned 11 targets into 183 yards and a touchdown, looking unguardable for much of the afternoon. It was his second big game in October … the catch being that the dud came in Week 6, against these Giants.
I’m not too worried and am playing Smith as an acceptable WR2 this week.
The Giants allow the fourth-most yards per slot pass this season, and that is what has changed for Smith this season (57% slot rate, up from 47.5% a season ago).
I think the 11 targets will be tough to repeat, but he’s been ultra-efficient with his looks, and if he can land one splash play, asking him to flirt with 15 PPR points isn’t too much.
Dallas Goedert, TE
It’s funny, I don’t see nearly as much vitriol online from the fantasy community when the Philadelphia passing attack targets a tight group, leaving Dallas Goedert out in the cold, as I do when one of the receivers underachieves.
After scoring in four straight, Goedert wasn’t at all featured in the Hurts bonanza, finishing the Week 7 win over the Vikings with just 18 yards.
This is who Goedert is and why I’ve been labeling him as a streamer with a good publicist.
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He’s a name you know on an elite team, but he’s been relying on touchdowns this season. That’s dangerous on a good day, but when you have four teammates that I view as far more likely to finish a drive than you, “unsustainable” doesn’t begin to describe his early-season profile.
Now, it should be noted that the one game that looked different was two weeks ago, in this exact matchup. In the upset loss, he was targeted 11 times on 31 routes, caught nine balls for 110 yards and a touchdown.
For whatever reason, he was featured from the jump and was one of the lone bright spots for the Birds on that Thursday night.
That’s not the norm, and I don’t expect it to repeat (it’s his only game with 45+ yards this season). If you can sell a league mate on Week 7 being a breakthrough effort for this offense and that Goedert is poised for a big Week 8, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
Goedert is a fancy streamer, and I bet you can find similar productions by cycling through the weekly options.
