Buffalo travels to Pittsburgh for their Week 13 road matchup against the Steelers following back-to-back defeats that have tightened the AFC East race. Dalton Kincaid has missed the last two weeks with a strained hamstring. Will fantasy football managers have their tight end back on the field?
Dalton Kincaid Injury Update
Kincaid’s hamstring problem occurred during the third quarter of Buffalo’s Week 10 road defeat to Miami when he visibly grabbed at his hamstring while exiting the field. The injury immediately raised concerns given the notoriously tricky nature of hamstring strains and their tendency to linger.
ESPN’s Jordan Schultz labeled him week to week the Monday following the injury, tweeting, “Sources: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid is considered week-to-week with a hamstring injury suffered Sunday vs the Dolphins”. This designation indicated the injury was significant enough to keep him out for multiple weeks rather than a minor issue that could heal quickly.
Kincaid has missed two straight contests, which was expected given the nature of hamstring injuries. He sat out all practice work the past two weeks and was ruled out on the team’s final injury report.
Head coach Sean McDermott said Kincaid would practice this week and has a chance to play against Pittsburgh. However, this is not a guarantee, and his availability remains uncertain as the Bills evaluate his progress throughout the week.
Kincaid did not practice on Wednesday, which represented a bad sign for his Week 13 availability. ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg reported that McDermott stated Kincaid, along with several other injured players, would not practice to begin the week.
However, Kincaid did return to a limited session on Thursday. This marks a significant step forward in his recovery and represents the first practice participation since suffering the injury three weeks ago. The progression from a complete non-participant Wednesday to limited work Thursday suggests he is making progress.
Expect him to be limited again on Friday as the Bills continue their cautious approach. He will probably draw a questionable tag heading into Sunday’s contest. His status seems genuinely up in the air at this point. The Bills have shown they will not rush him back before he is ready, evidenced by holding him out for two full weeks already.
The good news is, at worst, Kincaid should return in Week 14. The Bills face the Cincinnati Bengals at home on December 7, which would give Kincaid an additional week to fully recover if Buffalo opts to hold him out against Pittsburgh.
Kincaid’s Fantasy Outlook
Kincaid’s playing time has been the lowest of his career this season, with just a 43% snap share through the games he has played. However, he has been targeted on 26.2% of his routes run, the second-highest rate in the league among tight ends. He may not run many routes, but when he does, Josh Allen throws to him.
That efficiency has been the catalyst for Kincaid averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game despite the limited usage. He has as many touchdowns in eight games this season as he had in the first 29 games of his career, providing significant touchdown upside that elevates his fantasy value.
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With Kincaid sidelined, Dawson Knox has stepped into the primary tight end role. However, Knox has seen no more than four targets in any of the games Kincaid has missed or left early. He is not a fantasy option worth considering, even in deeper formats. The Bills have spread targets around to multiple receivers rather than funneling Kincaid’s work to Knox.
Seven different players recorded at least three targets for Buffalo in Week 11, but nobody had more than five. This demonstrates how the offense has operated without a clear secondary option behind Khalil Shakir when Kincaid is unavailable.
Kincaid remains a complicated player to rank in fantasy. He finished as a top-10 tight end in three of the first five weeks, finishing no worse than TE18 in any of those weeks. Since then, he has been better than TE25 just once, which happened to be a TE3 finish against Kansas City in Week 9.
He might win you your week, steady the ship, or completely sink you. Once you get outside of the top two tiers at the tight end position, the range of outcomes for all of these players is dramatic. The fact that Kincaid plays for a top-five offense in the league lands him as a low-end TE1 option more often than not when healthy.
Fantasy managers holding Kincaid should monitor Friday’s practice report closely. If he upgrades to full participation, confidence in his availability increases substantially. If he remains limited, the decision becomes more difficult, and managers should have backup options ready in case he is ruled out again.