The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Kansas City Chiefs players heading into their matchup with the Detroit Lions to help you craft a winning lineup.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
I don’t understand why people consider a banana taped to a piece of paper art. Still, I’m guessing those same people don’t understand why Patrick Mahomes is trending toward a player who has the potential to break fantasy during the second half of this season, absolutely.
Through five weeks, 32.1% of his fantasy points have been scored on the ground. That speaks not only to his athleticism being on full display some three months ahead of schedule, but also the limitations that have come with the rotating door at receiver up to this point.
But that’s changing.
Xavier Worthy is back to being used as a full-time player, Travis Kelce showed some juice with a score last week, and Rashee Rice’s season debut is coming.
Mahomes has put up some crazy postseason stat lines in the past, when he’s pushed the envelope across the board, when the season was on the line. Why wouldn’t we expect something similar during the second half of this season?
-
2023 Super Bowl: 46 passes, nine rushes, 399 combined yards
-
2024 AFC Title Game: 8 different players catch a pass, 11 rushes, two rushing touchdowns
Right now, he’s ripping off chunk gains with his legs, and those running lanes are only going to open wider as he continues to get more support.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 6 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
I’m not itching to play Mahomes this week in a tough spot against an offense that can control the clock. If he struggles, though, you can bet that I’ll be offering trades left and right to get access to him for the second half of the fantasy season.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
He looks good. Maybe better than good.
Last season, Isiah Pacheco averaged 2.39 yards per carry after contact. This season, he’s averaged 3.00 in four of five games and is coming off a season-high in snap share (61.9%).
As a proud owner of a Pacheco Poncho and a card-holding member of his fan club, I should be filled with optimism with that data in hand, but I’m not.
The Chiefs don’t appear comfortable with him holding their fate in their hands.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
Kareem Hunt is the featured back in scoring position, and it’s not close. Despite the success of this offense, Pacheco hasn’t played more than three red zone snaps in a single game this year, and we saw Andy Reid get rookie Breshad Smith a touch inside the 10-yard line last week against the Jags.
If you want to bet on Pacheco’s rushing numbers, I’ll green-light it, but his fantasy stock won’t be able to get off the ground until he gets at least a split of the scoring area snaps. Without it, he’s nothing more than a desperation flex, a spot I’d rather use on either Patriots running back this weekend in New Orleans.
Kareem Hunt, RB
I think we’ve done it. This Kansas City backfield is officially as bad as it gets for fantasy managers. Think about the current profile:
-
Week 5: Isiah Pacheco out-snaps Kareem Hunt 39-21
-
Week 5: Pacheco runs 20 more routes than Hunt
-
Season: Hunt has out-snapped Pacheco 29-13 in the red zone (10-4 in touches)
The “he’s our guy until we get close” mold of a backfield is as annoying as it gets, but what if I told you that the franchise quarterback is tracking for a career year in scramble count? Or that an intriguing rookie RB has a red zone touch in consecutive weeks?
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
I have Pacheco ranked a touch higher than Hunt for the remainder of the season, but you can’t possibly play either with any level of confidence right now. Hunt is getting his fair share of valuable looks, but we are 10 months removed from his last 15-touch regular season game, making him a touchdown-reliant player and nothing else.
Marquise Brown, WR
Personally, I think Xavier Worthy’s value will take a decent hit when Rashee Rice returns next week, but it’s Marquise Brown who is at risk of moving off of fantasy rosters when WR1 is back in the fold.
It was encouraging to see him earn eight targets on Monday night, his most in his “real” role this season (I’m not counting Week 1, where he was used in Worthy’s spot after just three snaps), but the playing time doesn’t lie: this is a player trending in the wrong direction.
-
Week 1: 93.1% snap share
-
Week 2: 75.4% snap share
-
Week 3: 67.2% snap share
-
Week 4: 52.9% snap share
-
Week 5: 52.4% snap share
I don’t want to be overly dramatic, but I think I’d deal him for the Packers D/ST right now. There simply doesn’t seem to be a role for him beyond this week, and with Rice coming back from a suspension, not an injury, he could be phased out in short order.
Green Bay faces the Bengals this week, followed by the Cardinals, Steelers, and Panthers. They are also past their bye week, have the road game against the Lions in the rearview, and get the Bears twice in December.
Rashee Rice, WR
Rashee Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of this season for a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy, and with a Week 10 bye, you’re looking at a fantasy star that needs to hit the ground running in a month when you get him back.
Rice showed well physically in camp, and when he’s back on the active roster, there’s no conversation to be had. Over his past 13 healthy games, his 17-game pace was 110 catches and eight scores, a line that makes him an unquestioned asset in all formats.
We are getting close.
If the manager with Rice is running low on leeway when it comes to their ability to make the playoffs, what do you have to lose by sending an offer? You could easily spin the first month as a slow one for Kansas City’s WR1 as he works back into the mix and navigate that later bye week, something that a 1-4 manager isn’t going to have time for.
Check out our FREE PFSN Trade Analyzer for your specific situation, but Rice is a top 15 receiver for me the rest of the way, and I think it comes at the expense of both Xavier Worthy’s ceiling and floor.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Xavier Worthy was back to being WR1 in this offense on Monday night, even after being a late add to the injury report with ankle swelling following the flight.
The speedster was on the field for 77.8% of the snaps and earned nine targets. More encouraging was the type of involvement: he had a pair of behind-the-line-of-scrimmage targets in addition to two that came 25+ yards downfield.
Health limitations seem to be a thing of the past (17 targets on 66 routes over the past two weeks), and we still have one game left until we have to worry about what this offense looks like when Rashee Rice returns from suspension.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
We will dive deep into that when the time is here, but for Week 6, you can bank on Worthy as a strong WR2 as you usually would, even against a Lions defense trending in a positive direction.
Travis Kelce, TE
Travis Kelce is coming off a Monday night game that featured him catching a season-high seven passes, the most productive of which was a two-yard score on their second drive of the evening.
There’s a high floor to his game these days (4+ receptions in four straight games isn’t overwhelming, but at the TE position in 2025, it’s not nothing), but the ceiling isn’t there and is at risk of falling even further with Rashee Rice now a week away from eligibility.
Kelce hasn’t picked up more than 15 yards on a catch in three straight games and has yet to earn more than seven targets in a game this season. As long as you’re realistic with your expectations (10-ish PPR points), this future Hall of Famer is still a valuable asset, even if it’s not close to the version of him we saw during the peak of his powers.
