The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Kansas City Chiefs players heading into their matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars to help you craft a winning lineup.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
OK, so what changed?
What allowed a Hall of Fame-caliber QB to look like a Hall of Fame-caliber QB after three awfully ordinary weeks as a passer?
Against the Ravens on Sunday, Mahomes completed 7-of-8 passes with two scores when throwing outside of the pocket, a drastic improvement from the two games prior (five-of-11 with zero touchdowns).
The gravity of Xavier Worthy was undoubtedly part of that, but so was a banged-up Baltimore defense that failed to make him uncomfortable, even if he was moved off of his spot. Also factoring into this was the willingness of Mahomes to do damage with his legs (45% of his fantasy points in Week 1 came with his legs, and in Week 2, that rate was 57.1%).
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We may have just seen a turning point, and the avalanche of Kansas City production is on the way. The Jaguars have overachieved on the defensive side of the ball, and Mahomes has quietly struggled for our purposes in these primetime spots (under 17.5 fantasy points in nine of his last 11 such contests).
I’m not worried about it.
Mahomes ranks fourth in dropbacks through the first month of the season, and if we are giving the most talented QB in the league elite volume, the fantasy points are going to pile up.
Mahomes is back in my top 8 at the position, both for this week and for the remainder of the season.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
The Chiefs’ offense looked fixed last week against the Ravens, and “fixed” essentially meant letting Patrick Mahomes cook with Xavier Worthy back in the fold.
Not a bad plan.
Week 4, Chiefs Backfield (snaps, touches, routes)
- Hunt: 31 / 14 / 15
- Pacheco: 26 / 9 / 16
Isiah Pacheco isn’t the third-down back, isn’t the red-zone back, and doesn’t have a game with more than 10 carries or two catches in it this season. I don’t doubt that he’ll make some important plays for the Chiefs this season, but the number of opportunities combined with the snaps in which he is on the field isn’t fantasy-friendly in the least.
I’ll continue to track Pacheco because I want a piece of this offense if I can get it, but I’ll be tracking him while he’s on my bench. Of his 38 touches in 2022, none have gained more than 12 yards, and a major problem is that the sheer number of opportunities is going to cap out under 15.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Sometimes I wonder if Andy Reid will just remove all running backs from his play designs and see how much chaos he can cause with Patrick Mahomes at the controls.
Kareem Hunt is getting the goal-line work, and that makes him a touch more valuable than Isiah Pacheco, but the role in the passing game isn’t there for either (Hunt has six targets in four games), and this team wants their fate decided on their dropbacks.
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I prefer Hunt to Pacheco this week, believe Pacheco has the better chance to win this role outright, and have zero confidence in starting either in any sort of format.
Marquise Brown, WR
Hollywood Brown scored 12.8 PPR points in the big win over the Ravens last week, but I’m not the least bit interested.
I understand why his name is gaining some momentum. The Chiefs looked like “THE CHIEFS” last week, and if they are, in fact, back to elite form, you want a piece of the puzzle.
But what does Brown do that is unique for this offense?
Xavier Worthy is a weapon across the field, but one who joins Tyquan Thornton as the field stretchers in town, while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce check in with significantly lower aDOTs than Brown, positioning them to earn the high-efficiency targets along with the running backs.
I’m not sure there’s anything but a TD-dependent role for him in this offense as it is, let alone when Rashee Rice returns in two weeks and leads this team in opportunities.
Brown has seen 5-6 targets per game in the last three, and that’s what I think we get on Monday night. That’s fine if you’re replacing a Rome Odunze type or want nothing to do with the Bengals (that’s harsher than I’m willing to be, but I’d understand) this week, but I don’t think this is a player that holds value in standard-sized leagues for much longer.
Rashee Rice, WR
Rice has been suspended for the first six weeks of this season for a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy, and with a Week 10 bye, you’re looking at a fantasy star that needs to hit the ground running in a month when you get him back.
Rice showed well physically in camp, and when he’s back on the active roster, there’s no conversation to be had. Over his past 13 healthy games, his 17-game pace was 110 catches and eight scores, a line that makes him an unquestioned asset in all formats.
With Travis Kelce at the mercy of Father Time and Xavier Worthy’s role only set to regress, Rice is the pass catcher to trust in this offense when at full strength, and it’s not close in my opinion.
If you roster Rice, you have the opportunity to play him every week. Survive in the short term and thrive in the long term. I’m told this is what parenting is like, but I cannot confirm.
If you don’t, I’d suggest actively rooting against the team that does. Not that “rooting” does you any good, but you will want to keep tabs on that team: if that team stubs its toe out of the gates and doesn’t feel as if it can survive the entirety of this suspension, you might be able to buy low on a potential league winner:
Week 12 vs. Colts
Stat to track: Second-highest short pass passer rating allowed in 2024 (only the Patriots were worse).
Week 13 at Cowboys
Stat to track: Highest short completion percentage allowed last season (78.5%, league average: 73.5%).
Week 14 vs. Texans
Stat to track: Allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per catch after the reception last season (NFL average: 5.3)
Week 15 vs. Chargers
Stat to track: Last season, 50 of Mahomes’ 66 passes thrown against the Chargers traveled less than 10 yards downfield (75.8%, the highest mark of his career against the divisional opponent, career rate prior vs LAC: 65.4%)
Week 16 at Titans
Stat to track: Sixth-highest touchdown rate allowed on short passes
Week 17 vs. Broncos
Stat to track: Mahomes played against them once last season, and he threw 31 passes no more than five yards downfield, the third highest.
Xavier Worthy, KC
Xavier Worthy and the Chiefs didn’t seem too worried about his shoulder in his return to action. Not only did the speedster rank second to JuJu Smith-Schuster in routes run, he earned eight targets, protected his body, and opened up everything that Kansas City wanted to do.
The ability to avoid contact, in the short-term at least, is as critical as anything we saw on Sunday afternoon, as an awkward landing could result in extended missed time. It is important to remember, however, that defenders can’t hit what they can’t catch, and with a 16.6-yard aDOT against the Ravens, Andy Reid seemed pretty aware of this fact.
I still have my concerns around the value of Worthy when Rashee Rice returns. We saw Worthy expand his route tree in the absence of Kansas City’s WR1 last season, and that’s great, but if he is pushed into a more vertical role in the second half of this season, how much does Tyquan Thornton eat into his pie?
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There will always be big-play potential for Worthy, given his skill set and the QB responsible for creating those opportunities. However, I fear that those splash plays will become critical, not bonuses, once Rice reacclimates to this system.
You’re starting him every week until I have some data points to prove/disprove that theory.
Travis Kelce, TE
Travis Kelce has yet to clear 61 receiving yards in a game this season, and that’s with plenty of receiver absences around him.
Outside of blind trust in his name and this system, why should we expect a bounce-back?
He has one end zone target this season and just two over his past eight regular-season games. I wouldn’t mind a aDOT that has declined every week (8.7 yards – 6.2 – 5.7 – 3.4) if it came attached to light volume, but that’s not the case, so it doesn’t carry the same floor-elevating powers that it has in the past.
He’s my TE9 for this week, and while that sounds optimistic, it’s more a reflection of how effective a 5-50 stat line can be at the tight end position these days.
