The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Los Angeles Chargers players heading into their matchup with the Indianapolis Colts to help you craft a winning lineup.
Justin Herbert, QB
Herbert is playing mature football, and that’s what Jim Harbaugh wants. The high-end fantasy production will follow with time; that’s something we have to have faith in.
Even without Quentin Johnston at his disposal, Herbert completed over three-quarters of his passes for a second straight contest. Sometimes these plus-plus matchups (at MIA) can give us some misleading stats, but I think this sticks.
Over the past two weeks, he’s completed 50% of his out-of-pocket passes with three touchdowns. In September, he completed 38.9% of his passes in those situations, resulting in two scores.
Over the past month, we’ve been getting passing production OR rushing production from Herbert. The ability to do both is all we can ask for, and I trust that, with time, we will get more instances where all of his skills are on display in the same game.
Hassan Haskins, RB
We will always have the prep process for last week.
Following the Omarion Hampton injury, we weren’t sure where the touches would go. A lot of us put in bids on both theoretical replacements, not sure who we really wanted, but knowing there was value to chase as part of a potent offense.
I’ll give you one guess as to which one your humble narrator ended up with in most cases.
Ugh.
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Kiman Vidal tripled up Haskins in touches against the Dolphins, and with him racking up 138 yards of offense, this went from an unknown committee to a clear-cut situation in the span of four quarters.
Holding onto Haskins is still the play, if for no other reason than Vidal doesn’t have experience at the top of an NFL depth chart. But he’s ranked comfortably outside my top 30 at the position, and I’d actively look for other options.
This 6’2″, 228-pound back got one of the nine red zone touches between these two backs.
You hate to see it, and if your roster suffered as a result, I was right there with you on Sunday.
Kimani Vidal, RB
The Chargers gave Vidal the first carry of their win over the Dolphins last week, the first since the Omarion Hampton injury, and the pride of Troy gave them no reason to pivot (21 touches for 138 yards and a touchdown).
When all was said and done, he more than tripled the snap share of Hassan Haskins and got eight red zone touches. Just like that, the committee thoughts are gone, and Vidal vaults into the top 20 at the position.
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Indianapolis has the fourth-worst run defense in terms of RB yards per carry gained before contact this season, and we know that Vidal offers value in the pass game (92 collegiate receptions).
Asking him to repeat his success from Sunday in the perfect matchup isn’t wise, but why can’t he turn 17 touches into double-digit fantasy points with the upside for more? I’d rather go this direction than mess with the situations in New England or Seattle.
Omarion Hampton, RB
Week 6 was the first with Hampton on injured reserve, but reports surfaced over the weekend that the expectation is for the rookie to require more than the minimum four-week stint on the shelf.
Vidal looked the part of a fantasy asset on Sunday, and even if that remains the case for the entirety of Hampton’s absence, it’s difficult to see a true change at the top of this depth chart when everyone is healthy.
Hampton is a priority IR stash: the role is there, and a Dallas matchup awaits in Week 16 for those with winning records that have an eye on the postseason.
Keenan Allen, WR
In a great spot against the Dolphins with Quentin Johnston sidelined, Allen set season lows in catches, targets, and yards.
He ran hot early this season in terms of touchdowns, but he’s yet to reach 70 receiving yards in a game this season, and that creates a low floor if the end zone targets aren’t adding up. Allen is going to continue to be very valuable for the Bolts (41.2% of his targets have come on third down), but with Ladd McConkey seeming to get on track and Johnston, when healthy, holding a unique role, he’s my WR3 of this trio, and it’s not terribly close.
As for Week 7, he’s hovering around WR30, a range that includes the Packers’ and 49ers’ receiver crapshoots.
Ladd McConkey, WR
This is a results-oriented business.
It just is. I’d love to fight that, but at best your fantasy season consists of 17 matchups, which means we have to weigh what has actually happened just as much as what “should” have happened.
That’s a little in the weeds, but it’s to say that McConkey has scored in consecutive games, and that has his managers feeling good. It’s reassuring to see 100 yards next to his name in Miami last week, and I get it.
I’m pro-McConkey.
My stance is that not much has changed. His aDOT over the past two weeks is essentially in line with what we saw in September, as is his slot usage. He’s simply run hot after running ice cold earlier in the season.
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The Quentin Johnston injury opened up a target share spike last week, and even then, are you looking at his day the same way if not for a miraculous play by Justin Herbert that ended up being a 42-yard catch-and-run for McConkey?
Probably not.
We overrated him coming into the season and course-corrected too fast after the early struggles. Over the past three weeks, he’s been in the WR20 range, and I think that’s about right moving forward.
I think there’s a real chance he’s the top Charger pass catcher in total the rest of the way, but there are going to be ups and downs due to the depth of this roster.
If I told you that over the next two months you’d get two duds, two top-15s, and a handful of finishes in the 16-30 range … would you take it?
I think that’s what we are looking at. If you remove the superhero that is Nacua from the WR numbers against the Colts, they profile as a pretty stingy group (Troy Franklin is the only other WR against them with a notable performance).
Some of that is schedule, granted, but if they can control tempo, this could be the type of low-possession game where only one Charger WR is deserving of being trusted.
How lucky do you feel?
Quentin Johnston, WR
Johnston was fantasy’s 14th highest scoring player (PPR) across all formats in September. Still, he earned just four targets in the Week 5 loss to the Commanders (40 yards) and missed last week with a hamstring injury that lingered throughout the week.
Every receiver has slow weeks, so the limited production in Week 5 wasn’t a big deal in my eyes. That is, until I looked closer at it.
After posting an aDOT of 11+ yards in each of Los Angeles’ first four games, Johnston saw his rate drop to 6.3 yards.
Now, we are looking at a tiny, four-target sample size. I’m not making any drastic rankings movement based on it, but I’m flagging it for sure. Johnston can thrive in this offense when his strength as a vertical threat is magnified: Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen are my preferred options on those sub-10-yard routes.
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If all health obstacles are cleared with confidence, Johnston will top my LAC WR list when this week kicks off, though I will say we are a week away from a similar role change, as I shake up the order in which I rank this trio.
The Bolts don’t have their bye until Week 12, so Johnston is going to have to work through this injury without the benefit of an extended break for the team. That’s worth noting because the Chargers host the Vikings to kick off Week 8, increasing the odds that this team gives Johnston a few extra days to get right before bringing him back for that game and thus giving him extra rest ahead of Week 9.
